Stamps as iconography: Celebrating the independence of new European and Central Asian states

Stamps are products or `windows' of the state that illustrate how it wishes to be seen by its own citizens and those beyond its boundaries. The topics of the first issues reveal what messages the state considers most important. The first issues from nineteen new East European and Central Asian states illustrate the importance of maps, flags, coats of arms and prominent religious and political symbols; overt propaganda and ideology were lacking.     

The Elements of Applied Avalanche Forecasting,Part II: The Physical Issues and the Rules of Applied Avalanche Forecasting

This paper (Part II) constitutes the second of a two part series todefine the seven elements of avalanche forecasting. Part I contains the first four elements which are neededto present the human issues. This paper contains the last three elements which deal mostly with thephysical issues and their use in the decision-making process. Some basic rules of applied avalancheforecasting are included here, for the first time, to illustrate physically based principleswhich are used in applied avalanche forecasting and their link to data analysis and decisions.Since the seven elements of applied avalanche forecasting are strongly connected, the reader should consultPart I (this journal issue) as a prelude to the present paper. Part II contains sections about dataand information, scale issues in time and space, decision making and errors and physical rules ofapplied forecasting. Since all seven elements of applied avalanche forecasting are connected, Part II does not stand alone.     

Territoriality of negation: Co-production of “creative destruction” in Israel

Based on an examination of Israel’s territorial conceptions, strategies, and achievements since the establishment of the state, this article shows how state territoriality subsumes ideology and political agendas and may, under certain circumstances, lead the state to negate its very self-conceptions and harm its own perceived interests. Its analysis pays special attention to the state’s inadvertently produced territories of negation, which run counter to its own conception of territoriality, and considers the kind of social–spatial entities produced by the state. It also considers Israeli territoriality’s more recently asserted goal of shaping Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, in addition to the goals of controlling Jerusalem and Judaizing the Galilee and the Negev. To illustrate the theoretical assertion that discriminatory and marginalizing state territoriality has the distinct potential to bring about its own negation, the article concludes with two prominent expressions of this phenomenon. The first is manifested in green-line Israel, where the state’s territorial policies and the resulting marginalization of the Palestinian minority has resulted in collective resistance against the state and its policies, basic Jewish-Israeli symbols such as the anthem and the flag, and Israel’s very definition as a Jewish State. The second is manifested in Israel’s inadvertent creation of bi-national spaces both within Israel proper and in East Jerusalem and the West Bank, indirectly promoting the solution of a single bi-national state and posing a serious challenge to the very goals that Israeli territoriality has consistently strived to achieve.     

Reliability analysis of serviceability performance for an underground cavern using a non-intrusive stochastic method

This paper proposes a non-intrusive stochastic analysis procedure for reliability analysis of the serviceability performance of an underground cavern with an implicit limit state function. This procedure is formulated on the basis of the stochastic response surface method (SRSM) and the deterministic finite element method. First, the SRSM is briefly introduced and implemented through a MATLAB code. Then, the software SIGMA/W is used to perform a deterministic finite element analysis. Next, a link between the MATLAB code and SIGMA/W is developed to automatically pass exchange data between the two platforms. Finally, two examples are presented to illustrate the capacity and validity of the proposed procedure. In the first example, a closed-form limit state function is adopted to validate the SRSM by comparing it with the results obtained from a direct Monte Carlo simulation. In the second example, the serviceability performance of an underground cavern is analyzed to illustrate the capacity of the proposed procedure to handle a reliability problem with an implicit limit state function. The proposed procedure does not require the user to modify the existing deterministic finite element code. The deterministic finite element analysis and the probabilistic analysis are decoupled. This is a major practical advantage because realistic probabilistic analyses are made possible. The SRSM can produce sufficiently accurate reliability results. Furthermore, the method is much more efficient than the direct Monte Carlo simulation. Sensitivity analyses show the effect of the variability of input random variables and the correlation between them on: (1) the probability density functions, (2) the first four order statistical moments, and (3) the probability of failure, which is investigated and discussed.     

Moving least squares method for reliability assessment of rock tunnel excavation considering ground-support interaction

A practical approach is proposed in this paper for the reliability assessment of rock tunnel excavations using the moving least squares method (MLSM) and the uniform design. The failure probability is computed by the first-order and the second-order reliability method (FORM/SORM), which is based on the generated MLSM response surface (MLSM-RS) via an iterative algorithm. The proposed approach is first implemented in the analysis of a circular tunnel that consists of three limit state functions to illustrate the efficiency and accuracy of the approach. Then, the method is applied to a non-circular tunnel to demonstrate the feasibility and validity of the method for practical problems, in which numerical procedures are commonly employed to solve the implicit limit state functions.     

Africa in the rise of rights-based development

This paper explores the rise of rights-based development (RBD) and its endorsement by prominent international institutions (such as the United Nations) and International Development Agencies (IDAs) like the World Bank. It situates RBD in global political context and analyses it in relation to the international politics of development, especially the politics of neo-liberal adjustment policies in Africa. The paper shows how RBD emerged against a backdrop of debate about four international issues associated with neo-liberalism and its discontents, namely globalisation and uneven development; capability and good governance; human rights and human development; and NGOs in the politics of development. Debates about those four issues keep repositioning the state as the central actor in RBD, and holding the state accountable for development (or the lack thereof) under international law. The paper’s basic point is that state-centric RBD is paradoxical and highly political. Greater accountability is being demanded of states––especially in Africa––from the same neo-liberal forces (such as the World Bank) charged with weakening state capacity, undermining democracy, and diminishing state authority. In terms of international power relations and the politics of development, RBD does signal something of a willingness to rethink certain aspects of the dominant neo-liberal agenda. And yet adjusted states are being subjected––in the name of RBD––to novel methods of international surveillance and forms of conditionality. States are ultimately held responsible for human rights violations, even when it is non-state actors (and their neo-liberal policies) that caused those rights to be violated in the first place. RBD is, therefore, a partial answer (at best) to the questions of empowerment and change raised by critics of neo-liberalism.     

Impact of surface processes on the growth of orogenic wedges: Insights from analog models and case studies

Interaction between surface processes and deep tectonic processes plays a key role in the structural evolution, kinematics and exhumation of rocks in orogenic wedges. The deformation patterns observed in analogue models applied to natural cases of present active or ancient mountain belts reflect several first order processes that result of these interactions. Internal strain partitioning due to mechanical behaviour of a thrust wedge has a strong impact on the vertical component of displacement of tectonic units that in return favour erosion in domains of important uplift. Such strain partitioning is first controlled by tectonic processes, but surface processes exert a strong feed back on wedge dynamics. Indeed, material transfer in thrust wedges not only depends on its internal dynamics, it is also influenced by climate controlled surface processes involving erosion and sedimentation. Effects of erosion are multiple: they allow long term localization of deformed domains, they favour important exhumation above areas of deep underplating and combined with sedimentation in the foreland they contribute to maintain the wedge in a critical state for long time periods. The simple models illustrate well how mountain belts structure, kinematics of tectonic units and exhumation are determined by these complex interactions.     

湖北长阳矿业发展战略

根据长阳土家族自治县矿产资源的现状和特点,从边远山区较为落后的经济和本区及周边现有的工业布局出发,分析目前矿业开发存在的问题。为保障尽快提升长阳地区经济水平,切实有效保护环境,必须进一步改进矿产资源利用方式,实行科学的矿业发展战略。     

An approach for valid covariance estimation via the Fourier series

The use of kriging for construction of prediction or risk maps requires estimating the dependence structure of the random process, which can be addressed through the approximation of the covariance function. The nonparametric estimators used for the latter aim are not necessarily valid to solve the kriging system, since the positive-definiteness condition of the covariance estimator typically fails. The usage of a parametric covariance instead may be attractive at first because of its simplicity, although it may be affected by misspecification. An alternative is suggested in this paper to obtain a valid covariance from a nonparametric estimator through the Fourier series tool, which involves two issues: estimation of the Fourier coefficients and selection of the truncation point to determine the number of terms in the Fourier expansion. Numerical studies for simulated data have been conducted to illustrate the performance of this approach. In addition, an application to a real environmental data set is included, related to the presence of nitrate in groundwater in Beja District (Portugal), so that pollution maps of the region are generated by solving the kriging equations with the use of the Fourier series estimates of the covariance.     

Partition,secession and peace in our time

This paper deals with the comparative issues of partition and secession, both as territorial issues and as problems of sovereignty, focussing on the state system. The democratic principle of national self-determination is recognised by the international community but is unequally and cynically applied, designed to protect the existing system of states. Partition, division, and secession, may heighten tensions between the parties and greatly magnify the extent of any future conflict, by creating new sovereign states. The weakening of the nation-state within its own borders by forces of globalization unleashes intensely nationalist sentiments, increasing instability within the state, and to partition or secession which, in turn, further destabilize the interstate system. This paper was written while an Academic Visitor in the Department of Geography, Queen Mary and Westfield College, University of London.     

水压致裂法三维地应力测量的理论探讨

本文对现有的水压致裂三维地应力测量方法进行了深入的力学分析,在此基础上提出了新的理论模型。新的理论模型采用了最小主应力破坏准则,与现有方法采用的最小切向应力破坏准则相比,更客观的表述了水压致裂过程中的力学机制。为说明该方法的工作步骤及其可行性,文中利用遗传算法反演技术,对假设的地应力状态进行了试算。试算结果表明该方法是可行的。      

Evaluating geological heritage: correspondence on Ruban, D.A. ‘Quantification of geodiversity and its loss’ (PGA, 2010, 121(3): 326-333)

This article comments on the recent paper in this journal by Ruban (2010) which presented a simple quantitative scheme for the calculation of landscape geodiversity and its application to evaluating geodiversity between different locations. This comment article highlights some conceptual and methodological issues in the set-up and application of Ruban's scheme, and suggests that geodiversity as a measure can only be meaningful if it is set within a wider context of landscape and geological conservation and management. Some examples of conservation strategies in Great Britain are described in order to illustrate this wider context.     

Water reform governmentality in Ecuador: Neoliberalism,centralization, and the restraining of polycentric authority and community rule-making

In most Latin American countries, issues concerning water governance and control also reflect broader conflicts over authority and legitimacy between the state and civil society. What lies behind the diverse water policy reforms is not simply a question of governing water affairs but also a drive to control or co-opt water user groups. This paper examines the efforts by the present Ecuadorian government to ‘control water users’ through new forms of ‘governmentality’ (Foucault, 1991). We use the ‘cathedral and bazaar’ metaphor (Lankford and Hepworth, 2010) to illustrate government rationale and practices in water governance shifts in the last decades. We analyze how Rafael Correa’s government sets out to reshape the relations between state, market and society. In its ‘Twenty-first Century Socialism’ project, based on a proclaimed ‘Citizen Revolution’, actual policy reform does not reverse but rather transforms the process of neoliberalizing water governance – creating a hybrid bazaar-cathedral model. We argue that the current water govermentality project implements reforms that do not challenge established market-based water governance foundations. Rather it aims to contain and undermine communities’ autonomy and ‘unruly’ polycentric rule-making, which are the result of both historical and present-day processes of change. Interestingly, water user federations that emerged during the neoliberal wave of the last two decades now claim water control space and search for new forms of democratizing water governance. They act as agents who fiercely – yet selectively and strategically – oppose both elements of the State-centered (cathedral) and market-based (bazaar) water governance models.     

A rational method for development of limit state for liquefaction evaluation based on shear wave velocity measurements

This papers presents a new approach for developing a limit state for liquefaction evaluation based on field performance data. As an example to illustrate the new approach, a database that consists of, among many other features, in situ shear wave velocity measurements and field observations of liquefaction/non‐liquefaction in historic earthquakes is analysed. This database is first used to train a neural network to classify liquefaction/non‐liquefaction based on soil resistance parameters and load parameters. The successfully trained and tested neural network is then used to establish a limit state, a multiple dimension boundary that separates ‘zone’ of liquefaction from ‘zone’ of non‐liquefaction. The limit state yields cyclic resistance ratio for a given set of soil resistance parameters. Examination of all cases in the database show that the developed limit state has a high degree of accuracy in predicting the occurrence of liquefaction/non‐liquefaction. The developed neural network model can accurately predict the cyclic resistance ratio of soils. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

黄土高原陆面过程试验研究(LOPEX)有关科学问题

主要讨论了黄土高原陆面过程野外科学试验研究项目的有关科学技术问题。首先从科学和现实角度说明了开展黄土高原陆面过程试验研究（LOPEX）的意义,并从黄土高原陆面过程野外观测和特征分析、黄土高原陆面水分过程特征及其对生态生理过程的影响、黄土高原陆面过程参数化研究等3个方面介绍了该科学试验研究项目的主要研究内容和重点要解决的科学问题,而且还初步探讨了黄土高原陆面过程试验研究的技术难点以及解决这些技术难点的主要科学技术思路。     

The “geo” of United States national strategy

The paper discusses the geo dimensions of the new world order, with particular emphasis on the increasing role of geoeconomics, and its impact on US national strategy. While the paper uses the US experience to illustrate the growing importance of geoeconomic considerations, the issues raised have direct bearing on many other nations throughout the world.US post Cold War strategy is determined by its three geo challenges. The most important is the geoeconomic challenge caused by the tri-polar division of the world along trading bloc lines, instant global communication and other technologies overcoming the constraints of physical geography, transnational corporations (TNCS) that are becoming supranational in character, and the emergence of a well educated global labor force. The geopolitical challenge is characterized by America's declining relative economic power and its traditional military allies having become economic competitors, while religious, ethnic, and regional tensions threaten its global interests. The third challenge is the military geography issue of effectively projecting power over distance, within the constraints of greatly reduced budgets and loss of overseas bases.     

大气运动的慢流形概论

从动力学系统的慢流形（slow manifold）的一般概念及数学描述出发，系统地论述了大气运动的慢流形的存在性和一般性质。文中侧重于讨论与大气运动的慢流形密切相关的一些重要问题，包括平衡运动或平衡流的性质以及它对惯性重力波的自发辐射（spontaneous emission）、PV反演理论和应用、与数值模式初始化问题的联系等，并对上述研究领域的研究历史和现状也进行了较为全面的综述，旨在为国内气象界相关方向的研究者提供了解该领域概貌并较快切入具体研究问题的线索。