Bicentennial decrease of the solar constant leads to the Earth’s unbalanced heat budget and deep climate cooling

Long-wave energy emitted by the Earth-atmosphere into space is characterized by changes in power over time that always lag behind the changes in power of the absorbed solar radiation due to slow variation in enthalpy of the Earth-atmosphere system. Long-term variation of the solar energy radiation absorbed by the Earth remains uncompensated by the energy radiated into space over the interval of time that is determined by the thermal inertia. The basic state of the climate system is when the debit and credit sides in the Earth’s global annual mean energy budget (including the air and water envelopes) are almost always unbalanced. The annual mean balance of the heat budget of the Earth-atmosphere over a long time period will reliably define the behavior and magnitude of the energy excess accumulated by the Earth or energy deficit to allow us to determine adequately and to predict beforehand the trend and amplitude of the forthcoming climate change using the prognosis of variations in the total solar irradiance (solar constant). The decrease in solar constant has been observed since the early 1990s. The Earth as a planet will have a negative balance in the energy budget in the future as well, because the Sun is entering the decline phase of the bicentennial luminosity changes. This will lead to a drop in temperature in approximately 2014. The increase in albedo and decrease in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere will result in the additional decrease in absorbed portion of the solar energy and reduced greenhouse effect. The additional drop in temperature exceeding the effect of decreased solar constant can occur as a result of successive feedback effects. A deep bicentennial minimum in solar constant is to be anticipated in 2042 ± 11 and the 19th Little Ice Age (for the last 7500 years) may occur in 2055 ± 11.     

Sunspot Positions and Areas from Observations by Pierre Gassendi

Solar activity behaviour on the eve of the Maunder minimum may provide important information on the period of further suppression of sunspot population. We analyse sunspot positions and areas in the 1630s extracted from rare drawings published by Pierre Gassendi in Opera Omnia. This work was published in two different editions, the first in Lyon and the second almost 70 years later in Florence. The drawings published in Lyon are found to be slightly different from those published in Florence, which produces a discrepancy in the position of spots of a few degrees, while sunspot group areas may differ by a factor of two. We reveal that the orientation of the drawings in the book is not always the same as might be seen in the telescope. We conjecture that the time of Gassendi’s observations covers the beginning of a new Schwabe cycle in the southern hemisphere. The differential rotation rate in the 1630s is also assessed and discussed.     

Asymmetries of the solar Ca ii lines

A theoretical study of the influence of propagating acoustic pulses in the solar chromosphere upon the line profiles of the Ca ii resonance and infrared triplet lines has been made. The major objective has been to explain the observed asymmetries seen in the cores of the H and K lines and to predict the temporal behavior of the infrared lines caused by passing acoustic or shock pulses. The velocities in the pulses, calculated from weak shock theory, have been included consistently in the non-LTE calculations. The results of the calculations show that these lines are very sensitive to perturbations in the background atmosphere caused by the pulses. Only minor changes in the line shapes result from including the velocities consistently in the line source function calculations. The qualitative changes in the line profiles vary markedly with the strength of the shock pulses. The observed differences in the K line profiles seen on the quiet Sun can be explained in terms of a spectrum of pulses with different wave-lengths and initial amplitudes in the photosphere.     

Terrestrial analogs of the hellespontus dunes,Mars

Geomorphic features in the Hellespontus region, Mars, were compared with dunes of the crescentic ridge type in numerous terrestrial sand seas quantitatively by dimensional analysis of dune lengths, widths, and wavelengths. Mean values for the Hellespontus dunes are close to mean values derived from measurements of all sampled terrestrial sand seas. Terrestrial analogs of form and areal distribution of the Hellespontus dunes are shown by comparison of scale ratios derived from the measurements. Dunes of similar form occur in South West Africa, in Pakistan, in the southeastern Arabian peninsula, in the Sahara, in eastern USSR and northern China, and in western North America. Terrestrial analogs closest to form and areal distribution of the Hellespontus dunes are in the Kara Kum Desert, Turkmen SSR, and in the Ala Shan (Gobi) Desert, China.     

Shock barometry of the Siljan impact structure,Sweden

Abstract– The Siljan impact structure in Sweden is the largest confirmed impact structure in Western Europe. Despite this, the structure has been poorly studied in the past, and detailed studies of shock metamorphic features in the target lithologies are missing. Here, we present the results of a detailed systematic search for shock metamorphic features in quartz grains from 73 sampled localities at Siljan. At 21 localities from an area approximately 20 km in diameter located centrally in the structure, the orientations of 2851 planar deformation feature sets in 1179 quartz grains were measured. Observations of shatter cones outside of the zone with shocked quartz extend the total shocked area to approximately 30 km in diameter. The most strongly shocked samples, recording pressures of up to 20 GPa, occur at the very central part of the structure, and locally in these samples, higher pressures causing melting conditions in the affected rocks were reached. Pressures recorded in the studied samples decrease outwards from the center of the structure, forming roughly circular envelopes around the proposed shock center. Based on the distribution pattern of shocked quartz at Siljan, the original transient cavity can be estimated at approximately 32–38 km in diameter. After correcting for erosion, we conclude that the original rim to rim diameter of the Siljan crater was somewhere in the size range 50–90 km.     

Thoughts on monitoring the effects of climate change on the surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet

The effect of mass balance variations on changes in surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet is examined in connection with the rise in sea level that will be caused by increased melting. Changes in surface elevation of several metres (of either sign) can occur in the ablation area of the ice sheet over a period of a few years as a result of random ablation forcing without being evidence of change in mean climate. Similar, but smaller, changes can occur in the accumulation area due to accumulation forcing. The ablation area of the ice sheet probably thickened from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s as a result of lower ablation in that period but thinned again in the late 1980s as a result of higher ablation then. There is no evidence of any present trend of increased melting. Future climate warming will involve an accelerated thinning of the ablation area that could be detected in 1–2 decades against the background of natural fluctuations in surface elevation.     

Fine-scale structure in relativistic jets and rapid variability in blazars

Several versions of the shock-in-jet model of the blazars' variability have been proposed in recent years. This family of models resorts to the interaction between a relativistic shock and a feature in the parsec-scale jet associated to an AGN in order to explain the origin of the rapid variability recently observed in many extragalactic radio sources. The nature of the involved features varies from one particular model to another. Here I discuss a possible origin for this variety of subparsec-sized features in the frame of the two-fluid model of extragalactic jets. Macroscopic Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities are shown to be capable of producing the required plurality of morphologies in the innermost part of the beams, in such a way that the different models have particular ranges of applicability according to the differencies in the parameters of the flows.     

Moonquake predetermination and tides

A pattern in moonquakes, which correlates with the monthly tidal cycle, also correlates with a phase shifted pattern of a 7-month tidal cycle. The lead of approximately 2 months in moonquake occurrence can be explained if local tidal forces are combined with a moonquake-driving force. This force, assumed to result from the 6-yr physical libration in latitude, would cause N-S sliding of an outer layer across a solid layer within a decoupled core in a lunar model. During 1969–1971, the sliding would be southward with a progression of monthly maxima in the combined forces. Where these forces control moonquakes, the reversal in direction of the 6-year cyclic force in early 1972 should cause a minimum in moonquake activity. Decreases toward such a minimum did occur simultaneously in the similar progressions of monthly moonquakes and maxima in the combined forces at the most active hypocenter. Repetition of the 1966–1971 force pattern in 1975–1977 should produce a corresponding repetition of the moonquake pattern. In 1973, the yet to be determined pattern in moonquakes could correspond to the pattern of either an entirely cyclic force, or a combination of the cyclic force and an additional secular force. The physical libration in latitude controls moonquakes in both cases. If moonquakes are driven by an entirely cyclic force, the use of a simple lunar model could lead to a better understanding of moonquake causes and of possible analogs in earthquake control.     

Time and shape changes of the supergranular network

From 20 K₂₃₂-spectroheliograms, time and shape changes of the supergranular network were investigated by means of autocorrelation curves. It was found that supergranules are lengthened in the direction of the solar rotation and this flattening fades out with growing activity of the region. Dimensions of the supergranular network increase with the activity of the corresponding region. The average diameter of the supergranules in the inactive regions is larger in the maximum of the solar cycle than in its minimum. The contrast of the calcium emission with respect to the background is double in the solar maximum in comparison with that in the minimum.     

Multifractality as a Measure of Complexity in Solar Flare Activity

In this paper we use the notion of multifractality to describe the complexity in Hα flare activity during the solar cycles 21, 22, and 23. Both northern and southern hemisphere flare indices are analyzed. Multifractal behavior of the flare activity is characterized by calculating the singularity spectrum of the daily flare index time series in terms of the Hölder exponent. The broadness of the singularity spectrum gives a measure of the degree of multifractality or complexity in the flare index data. The broader the spectrum, the richer and more complex is the structure with a higher degree of multifractality. Using this broadness measure, complexity in the flare index data is compared between the northern and southern hemispheres in each of the three cycles, and among the three cycles in each of the two hemispheres. Other parameters of the singularity spectrum can also provide information about the fractal properties of the flare index data. For instance, an asymmetry to the left or right in the singularity spectrum indicates a dominance of high or low fractal exponents, respectively, reflecting a relative abundance of large or small fluctuations in the total energy emitted by the flares. Our results reveal that in the even (22nd) cycle the singularity spectra are very similar for the northern and southern hemispheres, whereas in the odd cycles (21st and 23rd) they differ significantly. In particular, we find that in cycle 21, the northern hemisphere flare index data have higher complexity than its southern counterpart, with an opposite pattern prevailing in cycle 23. Furthermore, small-scale fluctuations in the flare index time series are predominant in the northern hemisphere in the 21st cycle and are predominant in the southern hemisphere in the 23rd cycle. Based on these findings one might suggest that, from cycle to cycle, there exists a smooth switching between the northern and southern hemispheres in the multifractality of the flaring process. This new observational result may bring an insight into the mechanisms of the solar dynamo operation and may also be useful for forecasting solar cycles.     

Very Large Array and SOHO Observations of Type I Noise Storms,Large-Scale Loops and Magnetic Restructuring in the Corona

Very Large Array (VLA) observations at 91-cm wavelength are combined with data from the SOHO EIT, MDI and LASCO and used to study the evolving coronal magnetic environment in which Type I noise storms and large-scale coronal loops occur. On one day, we have shown the early evolution of a coronal mass ejection (CME) in projection in the disk by tracing its decimetric continuum emission. The passage of the CME and an associated EUV ejection event coincided with an increase in the 91-cm brightness temperature of an extended coronal loop located a significant distance away and with the displacement of the 91-cm source during the early stage of the CME. We suggest that the energy deposited into the corona by the CME may have caused a local increase in the thermal or nonthermal electron density or in the electron temperature in the middle corona resulting in a transient increase in the brightness of the 91-cm loop. On a second observing day, we have consolidated the known association between magnetic changes in the photosphere and low corona with noise storm enhancements in an overlying radio source well in advance of a flare event in the same region. We find anti-correlated changes in the brightness of a bipolar 91-cm Type I noise storm that appear to be associated with the cancellation and emergence of magnetic flux in the underlying photosphere. In this case, the evolving fields may have led to magnetic instabilities and reconnection in the corona and the acceleration of nonthermal particles that initiated and sustained the Type I noise storm.     

Numerical simulation of seasonal dynamics of water vapor in the Martian atmosphere

The seasonal evolution of the H₂O snow in the Martian polar caps and the dynamics of water vapor in the Martian atmosphere are studied. It is concluded that the variations of the H₂O mass in the polar caps of Mars are determined by the soil thermal regime in the polar regions of the planet. The atmosphere affects water condensation and evaporation in the polar caps mainly by transferring water between the polar caps. The stability of the system implies the presence of a source of water vapor that compensates for the removal of water from the atmosphere due to permanent vapor condensation in the polar residual caps. The evaporation of the water ice that is present in the surface soil layers in the polar regions of the planet is considered as such a source. The annual growth of the water-ice mass in the residual polar caps is estimated. The latitudinal pattern of the seasonal distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere is obtained for the stable regime.Translated from Astronomicheskii Vestnik, Vol. 38, No. 6, 2004, pp. 497–503.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2004 by Aleshin.     

The generation and dissipation of solar and galactic magnetic fields

Turbulent diffusion of magnetic field plays an essential role in the generation of magnetic field in most astrophysical bodies. This paper reviews what can be proved, and what can be believed, about the turbulent diffusion of magnetic field. Observations indicate the dissipation of magnetic field at rates that can be understood only in terms of turbulent diffusion. Theory shows that a largescale weak magnetic field diffuses in a turbulent flow in the same way that smoke is mixed throughout the fluid by the turbulence. The small-scale fields (produced from the large-scale field by the turbulence) are limited in their growth by reconnection of field lines at neutral points, so that the turbulent mixing of field and fluid is not halted by them.Altogether, it appears that the mixing of field and fluid in the observed turbulent motions in the Sun and in the Galaxy is unavoidable. Turbulent diffusion causes decay of the general solar fields in a decade or so, and of the galactic field in 10⁸–10⁹ yr. We conclude that continual dynamo action is implied by the observed existence of the fields.This work was supported in part by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant NGL 14-001-001.     

The onset of warps in Spitzer observations of edge-on spiral galaxies

We analyse warps in the nearby edge-on spiral galaxies observed in the Spitzer /Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) 4.5-μm band. In our sample of 24 galaxies, we find evidence of warp in 14 galaxies. We estimate the observed onset radii for the warps in a subsample of 10 galaxies. The dark matter distribution in each of these galaxies are calculated using the mass distribution derived from the observed light distribution and the observed rotation curves. The theoretical predictions of the onset radii for the warps are then derived by applying a self-consistent linear response theory to the obtained mass models for six galaxies with rotation curves in the literature. By comparing the observed onset radii to the theoretical ones, we find that discs with constant thickness can not explain the observations; moderately flaring discs are needed. The required flaring is consistent with the observations. Our analysis shows that the onset of warp is not symmetric in our sample of galaxies. We define a new quantity called the onset-asymmetry index and study its dependence on galaxy properties. The onset asymmetries in warps tend to be larger in galaxies with smaller disc scalelengths. We also define and quantify the global asymmetry in the stellar light distribution, that we call the edge-on asymmetry in edge-on galaxies. It is shown that in most cases the onset asymmetry in warp is actually anticorrelated with the measured edge-on asymmetry in our sample of edge-on galaxies and this could plausibly indicate that the surrounding dark matter distribution is asymmetric.     

The evolution of adopted values for precession

A survey of values of the speed of general precession in longitude is presented from the time of Bessel to the adoption of the new value by the IAU in 1976 for use in the FK5 and the J2000 reference system. The important contributions of Walter Fricke to this area of fundamental astronomy are outlined.Dedicated to Walter Fricke on the occasion of his 70th birthday and of his retirement as director of the Astronomisches Rechen-Institut in Heidelberg in appreciation of the insight he has given us and in anticipation of his continued research in fundamental astronomy.     

Polarization transfer of electromagnetic waves in a magnetized plasma

In this investigation, the polarization transfer equations in terms of the Stokes parameters are derived for electromagnetic waves propagating in an arbitrary direction in an inhomogeneous magnetized plasma. This system of transfer equations is then solved analytically in the case when the magnetized plasma is homogeneous. For simplicity in presentation, the source term in the equation of transfer has been omitted. Transitting to the special case of quasi-longitudinal propagation, the results obtained here are shown to be in agreement to that derived by Zheleznyakov earlier.     

Kinetic Alfven wave driven by density and magnetic field inhomogeneities in plasmas of finite β

On the basis of an analysis of the instability of drift caused by density and magnetic field inhomogeneities in plasmas with finite β, the effect of the instability on the excitation of kinetic Alfven wave (KAW) is probed. In the kinetic theory, which correctly treats the effect of the finite Larmor radius and the wave-particle resonant interaction, the motion of the ions is described with the Vlasov equation and the motion of electrons, with the kinetic drift equation. Comparing the effects by inhomogeneities in the density and in the magnetic field in plasmas with finite β, we found that the drift instability is more easily excited by the former, and in the instability so excited, the energy transfer is more intense. This energy transfer provides the physical basis for the excitation of KAW. As shown by numerical solutions, KAWs can be widely excited and produced in the magnetosphere, especially in the cusp of the magnetosphere, in the magnetopause and in the boundary layers of plasma sheets, where inhomogeneities are obvious. The results of the present work further illustrate that the KAW plays an important role in the energy transfer in magnetospheric regions.     

Searching the Sinus Amoris: Using profiles of geological units,impact and volcanic features to characterize a major terrane interface on the Moon

Geochemical profiles of surface units, impact, and volcanic features are studied in detail to determine the underlying structure in an area of extensive mare/highland interface, Sinus Amoris. This study region includes and surrounds the northeastern embayment of Mare Tranquillitatis. The concentrations of two major rock-forming elements (Mg and Al), which were derived from the Apollo 15 orbital geochemical measurements, were used in this study. Mapped units and deposits associated with craters in the northwestern part of the region tend to have correlated low Mg and Al concentrations, indicating the presence of KREEP-enriched basalt. Found along the northeastern rim of Tranquillitatis were areas with correlated high Mg and Al concentration, indicating the presence of troctolite. Distinctive west/east and north/south trends were observed in the concentrations of Mg and Al, and, by implication, in the distribution of major rock components on the surface. Evidence for a systematic geochemical transition in highland or basin-forming units may be observed here in the form of distinctive differences in chemistry in otherwise similar units in the western and eastern portions of the study region.     

Uncertainties in climate change prediction: El Niño-Southern Oscillation and monsoons

The sensitivity of climate phenomena in the low latitudes to enhanced greenhouse conditions is a scientific issue of high relevance to billions of people in the poorest countries of the globe. So far, most studies dealt with individual model results. In the present analysis, we refer to 79 coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations from 12 different climate models under 6 different IPCC scenarios. The basic question is as to what extent various state-of-the-art climate models agree in predicting changes in the main features of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the monsoon climates in South Asia and West Africa. The individual model runs are compared with observational data in order to judge whether the spatio-temporal characteristics of ENSO are well reproduced. The model experiments can be grouped into multi-model ensembles. Thus, climate change signals in the classical index time series, in the principal components and in the time series of interannual variability can be evaluated against the background of internal variability and model uncertainty.There are large differences between the individual model predictions until the end of the 21st century, especially in terms of monsoon rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). The majority of the models tends to project La Niña-like anomalies in the SOI and an intensification of the summer monsoon precipitation in India and West Africa. However, the response barely exceeds the level of natural variability and the systematic intermodel variations are larger than the impact of different IPCC scenarios. Nonetheless, there is one prominent climate change signal, which stands out from model variations and internal noise: All forced model experiments agree in predicting a substantial warming in the eastern tropical Pacific. This oceanic heating does not necessarily lead to a modification of ENSO towards more frequent El Niño and/or La Niña events. It simply represents a change in the background state of ENSO. Indeed, we did not find convincing multi-model evidence for a modification of the wavelet spectra in terms of ENSO or the monsoons. Some models suggest an intensification of the annual cycle but this signal is fairly model-dependent. Thus, large model uncertainty still exists with respect to the future behaviour of climate in the low latitudes. This has to be taken into account when addressing climate change signals in individual model experiments and ensembles.     

The brightest OH maser in the sky: A flare of emission in W75 N

A flare of maser radio emission in the 1665-MHz OH line with a flux density of about 1000 Jy was discovered in the star-forming region W75 N in 2003. At the time of its observations, it was the strongest OH maser in the entire history of research since the discovery of cosmic OH masers in 1965. The linear polarization of the flare emission reached 100%. A weaker flare with a flux density of 145 Jy was observed in this source in 2000–2001; this was probably a precursor of the intense flare. The intensity of two other spectral features decreased when the flare emerged. This change in the intensity of the emission from maser condensations (a brightening of some of them and a weakening of others) can be explained by the passage of a magnetohydrodynamic shock through regions of enhanced gas concentration.