El Niño influence on streamflow forecasting

Stochastic models are often fitted to historical data in order to produce streamflow scenarios. These scenarios are used as input data for simulation/optimization models that support operational decisions for water resource systems. The streamflow scenarios are sampled from probability distributions conditioned on the available information, such as recent streamflow data. In this paper we introduce a procedure for further conditioning the probability distributions by considering the recent measurements of climatic variables, such as sea temperatures, that are used to describe the occurrence of El Ni?o. We adopt an auto-regressive model and use the “El Ni?o information” to refine the parameter estimation process for each time step. The corresponding methodology is tested for the monthly energy time series, “inflowing” to the power plants of Colombia. This is a linear combination of streamflow values for the 18 most important rivers of the country.     

Impacts of El Niño–southern oscillation on global runoff: Characteristic signatures and potential mechanisms

Runoff signatures, including low flow, high flow, mean flow and flow variability, have important implications on the environment and society, predominantly through drought, flooding and water resources. Yet, the response of runoff signatures has not been previously investigated at the global scale, and the influencing mechanisms are largely unclear. Hence, this study makes a global assessment of runoff signature responses to the El Niño and La Niña phases using daily streamflow observations from 8217 gauging stations during 1960–2015. Based on the Granger causality test, we found that ~15% of the hydrological stations of multiple runoff signatures show a significant causal relationship with El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO). The quantiles of all runoff signatures were larger during the El Niño phase than during the La Niña phase, implying that the entire flow distribution tends to shift upward during El Niño and downward during La Niña. In addition, El Niño has different effects on low and high flows: it tends to increase the low and mean flow signatures but reduces the high flow and flow variability signatures. In contrast, La Niña generally reduces all runoff signatures. We highlight that the impacts of ENSO on streamflow signatures are manifested by its effects on precipitation (P), potential evaporation (PET) and leaf area index (LAI) through ENSO-induced atmospheric circulation changes. Overall, our study provides a comprehensive picture of runoff signature responses to ENSO, with valuable insights for water resources management and flood and drought disaster mitigation.     

What can we tell about global auroral-electrojet activity from a single meridional magnetometer chain?

The AE indices are generally used for monitoring the level of magnetic activity in the auroral oval region. In some cases, however, the oval is either so expanded or contracted that the latitudinal coverage of the AE magnetometer chain is not adequate. Then, a longitudinal chain in the key region would give more information of the real situation, but, of course, only during some limited UT-period. In order to find out the UT coverage of a single meridional chain, we have compared the global AL and AU indices with corresponding local indices determined using data from the meridional part of the EISCAT Magnetometer Cross during the years 1985–1987. A statistical study shows that the local indices are close (within relative error of 0.2) to the global AU and AL during periods 1500–2000 UT ( 1730–2230 MLT) and 2130–0130 UT (000–0400 MLT), respectively. In the middle of these optimal MLT-sectors the EISCAT Cross sees more than 70% of the cases when the global AE chain records activity. Then, also the correlation between the local and global indices is generally good (>0.7). Thus we conclude that five to six evenly located meridional chains are needed for covering all the UT-periods. On the other hand, already the combination of IMAGE, CANOPUS, and the Greenland chains catches 50% of the substorms. Case-studies show that usually during 2130 – 1100 UT the AL achieved from these chains reproduces the real AL with good timing, although it does not follow all transient variations.     

Regional differences in the effects of El Niño and La Niña on low flows and floods

Abstract

The response of monthly 7-day low flow, monthly instantaneous peak flow, and monthly frequency of flood events to El Niño and La Niña episodes is investigated for 18 rivers that represent a diverse range of climatic types throughout New Zealand. A significant positive or negative deviation from the long-term average was observed in over half the possible combinations of river, streamflow index, and type of ENSO episode; significant deviations were most frequent in the case of low flow, especially during La Niña episodes. Patterns of streamflow response differ widely between rivers, and the response of a given river to individual ENSO episodes is very variable. The patterns of streamflow response to ENSO are consistent to some extent with the climatic effects of ENSO already identified by meteorologists. Two core regions can be defined in which streamflow tends to respond in the same way. These are in the northeast of the North Island, and in the axial ranges of the South Island, where there are significant effects of ENSO on the frequency and duration of rain-bearing northeasterly and westerly winds respectively. The patterns of response strongly reflect topography, and the exposure of catchments to predominant air masses.     

Semiannual and annual oscillations of sea level and their impact on asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña episodes

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we demonstrate that the asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña events recorded in sea level variation occurs only during extreme episodes of El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Second, we explain that the asymmetry is controlled by certain regular cycles which have time-variable amplitudes. Gridded maps of sea level anomaly that form a spatial-temporal time series (spatial resolution: 1° × 1°, sampling interval: 1 week) spanning the time interval from 14/10/1993 to 18/04/2012 were used. We examined those time series and found that certain regular harmonic signals (periods: 365, 182, 120, 90 and 62 days) are dominant terms of their temporal variability. By subtracting those oscillations from sea level anomaly data, residuals were determined. Using skewness and kurtosis as measures of asymmetry and nonlinearity — after adopting 10-year moving window — we found that the extreme El Niño 1997/1998 has been a dominant driving force of the asymmetry and nonlinearity of El Niño/Southern Oscillation since the end of 1993. In order to detect residual signals that are responsible for the asymmetry, we applied the Fourier Transform Band Pass Filter and found that there are two important oscillations remaining in the residual sea level anomaly data, i.e. the annual and semiannual ones with time-varying amplitudes. We hypothesize that temporarily uneven amplitudes have meaningful impact on the aforementioned asymmetry.     

El Ni?o and El Ni?o Modoki variability based on a new ocean reanalysis

A new ocean reanalysis, covering the period from 1990 to 2009, is evaluated against observational sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) data in reproducing the temporal characteristics of El Ni?o and El Ni?o Modoki. The new reanalysis assimilates the available SST, temperature–salinity profile, and satellite altimetry data sets into a global ocean model forced with surface boundary conditions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction atmospheric reanalysis 2. Using the Ni?o 3 index and the improved El Ni?o Modoki index, to distinguish between El Ni?o and El Ni?o Modoki signals, our results show that the two time series in the new reanalysis are in agreement with those obtained from observations during the study period. A composite analysis method is used to demonstrate the temporal evolution of these two types of El Ni?o. The new reanalysis has the advantage of representing the strength and location of El Ni?o events better than the control run, with an increase in the spatial correlation, but El Ni?o variability in the reanalysis is weak in the eastern Pacific, particularly off the coast of South America. As for the El Ni?o Modoki events, the initiation, development, and termination of the warm SST anomalies all occur in the central Pacific. All main features associated with the warm SST anomaly pattern of El Ni?o Modoki are well represented in the reanalysis. Furthermore, using this new ocean reanalysis, we select two strong cases to investigate possible mechanisms that may lead to the different warm SST anomaly patterns.     

What can gene flow and recruitment dynamics tell us about connectivity between European hake stocks in the Eastern North Atlantic?

Systematic genetic analyses of fish populations allow the testing of temporal stability in their genetic structures and better understanding their pattern of connectivity. In this study the pattern of gene flow between the two Atlantic stocks of the European hake has been examined for the period 2000-2002. Present analyses indicate that a large genetic homogeneity existed among all Atlantic populations in that period, and that a systematic grouping occurred between Porcupine Bank samples and Cantabric ones. This scenario is congruent with an inter-annual gene flow from central grounds of the northern stock (Porcupine and Great Sole) to Iberian grounds inhabited by the southern stock. Additionally, estimated migration figures were in agreement with the good recruitments observed in the southern stock after 2003 despite the spawning biomass was at its historical minimum. Altogether these results highlight the central role of Porcupine bank and Great Sole in making sustainable both stocks and advocate the integrative management of this hake fishery by means of a multidisciplinary assessment.     

Some characteristics and precipitation effects of the El Niño of 1997–1998

The 1997–1998 El Niño was the strongest in known history. However, its effects on rainfall in different parts of the globe were not all as expected (floods were expected in some regions and droughts in others). The characteristics of this El Niño, and the expected and observed precipitation effects are described; the reasons for the expectations not coming true in some regions are discussed. This paper attempts to review the important scientific issues involved in El Niño phenomena for the general reader.     

El Niño and La Niña influence on mean river flows of southern South America in the 20th century

The influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on monthly mean river flows of 12 rivers in the extreme south of South America in the 20th century is analysed. The original dataset of each river is divided into two subsets, i.e. warm ENSO events or El Niño, and cold ENSO events or La Niña. The elements of the subsets are composites of 24 consecutive months, from January of the year when the ENSO event begins to December of the following year. The ENSO signal is analysed by comparing the monthly mean value of each subset to the long-term monthly mean. The results reveal that, in general, monthly mean El Niño (La Niña) river flows are predominantly larger (smaller) than the long-term monthly mean in the rivers studied. The anomalies are more evident during the second half of the year in which the event starts and the first months of the following year.     

The Relationship Between the Interannual Variation of Earth’s Rotation and El Niño Events

We analyzed the relationship between the earth’s rotational variation and sea-surface temperature anomaly. By means of using Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) bandpass filter on the change of length-of-day (ΔLOD) data, the interannual variation series having time periods greater than 1.5-year and less than 8-year was obtained. Time series analyses of the interannual variation, which corresponds to the El Niño period, reveal a close linkage between the earth’s rotation and El Niño. A detailed comparison suggests, that six of seven El Niño events are nearly synchronous with the interannual variation of the earth’s rotation, and all ΔLOD peak are in El Niño years except 1991–92, which means the interannual variation of the earth’s rotation in these years is relatively slow. The correlation between ΔLOD and sea-surface temperature is about 0.517 (1 month-lag), which far exceeds the 99% significance level.     

Is There Any Teleconnection Between Surface Hydrology in Poland and El Niño/Southern Oscillation?

The objective of the work discussed in this paper was to seek possible links between surface hydrology in Southwestern (SW) Poland and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Although the impact of ENSO on hydrology in Europe has been investigated by many researchers, no clear picture demonstrating spatial variability of such a teleconnection has yet been unequivocally reported. In particular, there is no comprehensive study on ENSO–streamflow links for Polish rivers. Herein, discharge time series from 15 sites located at lowland and mountain rivers in SW Poland and different ENSO indices are examined. They include atmospheric time series (axial component of atmospheric angular momentum, Southern Oscillation Index), oceanic indices (Niño 3.4 Index, Global SST Index), geodetic data (length-of-day), and the combined index (Multivariate ENSO Index). The data span the period from November 1971 to October 2006. On the basis of cross-correlation and wavelet analyses it was found that there is a weak but significant link between ENSO and surface hydrology in SW Poland. It is inferred that ENSO episodes may be among a few factors affecting winter and early spring discharges of rivers in SW Poland and may have a (probably limited) impact on snow-melt flood generation.     

Reservoir operation using El Niño forecasts—case study of Daule Peripa and Baba,Ecuador

Abstract

Reservoir operation is studied for the Daule Peripa and Baba system in Ecuador, where El Niño events cause anomalously heavy precipitation. Reservoir inflow is modelled by a Markov-switching model using El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices as input. Inflow is forecast using 9-month lead time ENSO forecasts. Monthly reservoir releases are optimized with a genetic algorithm, maximizing hydropower production during the forecast period and minimizing deviations from storage targets. The method is applied to the existing Daule Peripa Reservoir and to a planned system including the Baba Reservoir. Optimized operation is compared to historical management of Daule Peripa. Hypothetical management scenarios are used as the benchmark for the planned system, for which no operation policy is known. Upper bounds for operational performance are found via dynamic programming by assuming perfect knowledge of future inflow. The results highlight the advantages of combining inflow forecasts and storage targets in reservoir operation.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor I. Nalbantis     

Temperature anomalies in high northerly latitudes and their link with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation

I report the discovery of a low frequency temperature oscillation in the eastern North Atlantic (NA), which was significantly correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in the tropical Pacific, but led the latter index by a number of months. This discovery is significant, because it demonstrates a link between the tropical Pacific and the high northerly latitudes which cannot readily be explained in terms of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) feedbacks from the tropics, and opens up the possibility that ENSO and temperature anomalies in northerly climes, may actually have a common origin within, or even external to, the global climate system.     

Comparison of the effects of soil moisture and El Niño on summer precipitation in eastern China

Science China Earth Sciences - The effects of spring soil moisture over the vast region from the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze River valley to North China (YRNC) and El Niño on the...     

Displacements and transformations of nitrate-rich and nitrate-poor water masses in the tropical Pacific during the 1997 El Niño

A Lagrangian analysis was applied to the outputs of a coupled physical-biogeochemical model to describe the redistribution of nitrate-rich and nitrate-poor surface water masses in the tropical Pacific throughout the major 1997 El Niño. The same tool was used to analyze the causes of nitrate changes along trajectories and to investigate the consequences of the slow nitrate uptake in the high nutrient low chlorophyll (HNLC) region during the growth phase of the event. Three patterns were identified during the drift of water masses. The first mechanism is well known along the equator: oligotrophic waters from the western Pacific are advected eastward and retain their oligotrophic properties along their drift. The second concerns the persistent upwelling in the eastern basin. Water parcels have complex trajectories within this retention zone and remain mesotrophic. This study draws attention to the third process which is very specific to the HNLC region and to the El Niño period. During the 1997 El Niño, horizontal and vertical inputs of nitrate decreased so dramatically that nitrate uptake by phytoplankton became the only mechanism driving nitrate changes along pathways. The study shows that because of the slow nitrate uptake characteristic of the tropical Pacific HNLC system, nitrate in the pre-El Niño photic layer can support biological production for a period of several months. As a consequence, the slow nitrate uptake delays the gradual onset of oligotrophic conditions over nearly all the area usually occupied by upwelled waters. Owing to this process, mesotrophic conditions persist in the tropical Pacific during El Niño events.     

Variation of surface air temperatures in relation to El Niño and cataclysmic volcanic eruptions, 1796–1882

During the contemporaneous interval of 1796–1882 a number of significant decreases in temperature are found in the records of Central England and Northern Ireland. These decreases appear to be related to the occurrences of El Niño and/or cataclysmic volcanic eruptions. For example, a composite of residual Central England temperatures, centering temperatures on the yearly onsets of 20 El Niño events of moderate to stronger strengths, shows that, on average, the change in temperature varied by about ±0.3°C from normal, being warmer during the boreal fall–winter leading up to the El Niño year and cooler during the spring–summer of the El Niño year. Also, the influence of El Niño on Central England temperatures appears to have lasted about 1–2 years. Similarly, a composite of residual Central England temperatures, centering temperatures on the month of eruption for 26 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions, shows that, on average, the temperature decreased by about 0.1–0.2°C, typically, 1–2 years after the eruption; although for specific events, like Tambora, the decrease was considerably greater. Additionally, tropical eruptions appear to have produced greater cooling than extratropical eruptions, and eruptions occurring in boreal spring–summer appear to have produced greater cooling than those occurring in fall–winter.     

Coastal upwelling along the north coast of Papua New Guinea and El Niño events during 1981–2005

We investigate the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) cooling and upwelling along Papua New Guinea’s (PNG) north coast before the onset of El Niño events using a hindcast experiment with a high-resolution ocean general circulation model. Coastal upwelling and related SST cooling appear along PNG north coast during the boreal winter before the onsets of six El Niño events occurring during 1981–2005. Relatively cool SSTs appear along PNG north coast during that time, when anomalous northwesterly surface wind stress, which can cause coastal upwelling by offshore Ekman transport appearing over the region. In addition, anomalous cooling tendencies of SST are observed, accompanying anomalous upward velocities at the base of the mixed layer and shallow anomalies of 27°C isotherm depth. It is also shown that entrainment cooling plays an important role in the cooling of the mixed layer temperature in this region.     

Contrasting the evolution between two types of El Niño in a data assimilation model

Simulation outputs were used to contrast the distinct evolution patterns between two types of El Niño. The modeled isotherm depth anomalies closely matched satellite sea surface height anomalies. Results for the El Niño Modoki (central Pacific El Niño) corresponded well with previous studies which suggested that thermocline variations in the equatorial Pacific contain an east–west oscillation. The eastern Pacific El Niño experienced an additional north–south seesaw oscillation between approximately 15° N and 15° S. The wind stress curl pattern over the west-central Pacific was responsible for the unusual manifestation of the eastern Pacific El Niño. The reason why the 1982/1983 El Niño was followed by a normal state whereas a La Niña phase developed from the 1997/1998 El Niño is also discussed. In 1997/1998, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) retreated faster and easterly trade winds appeared immediately after the mature El Niño, cooling the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific and generating the La Niña event. The slow retreat of the ITCZ in 1982/1983 terminated the warm event at a much slower rate and ultimately resulted in a normal phase.     

Rainfall and streamflow response to El Niño Southern Oscillation: a case study in a semiarid catchment,Australia

Abstract

This paper aims to compare the shift in frequency distribution and skill of seasonal climate forecasting of both streamflow and rainfall in eastern Australia based on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Phase system. Recent advances in seasonal forecasting of climate variables have highlighted opportunities for improving decision making in natural resources management. Forecasting of rainfall probabilities for different regions in Australia is available, but the use of similar forecasts for water resource supply has not been developed. The use of streamflow forecasts may provide better information for decision-making in irrigation supply and flow management for improved ecological outcomes. To examine the relative efficacy of seasonal forecasting of streamflow and rainfall, the shift in probability distributions and the forecast skill were evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and the linear error in probability space (LEPS) skill score, respectively, at three river gauging stations in the Border Rivers Catchment of the Murray-Darling Basin in eastern Australia. A comparison of rainfall and streamflow distributions confirms higher statistical significance in the shift of streamflow distribution than that in rainfall distribution. Moreover, streamflow distribution showed greater skill of forecasting with 0–3 month lead time, compared to rainfall distribution.