Evaluation of correlations between precipitation, groundwater fluctuations, and lake level fluctuations using spectral methods (Wisconsin, USA)

Spectral methods and 2 years of daily data were used to estimate the phase lag between precipitation and groundwater-level response, and two decades of quarterly data were used to analyze the interaction between precipitation, lake levels and groundwater in the Trout Lake watershed located in Vilas County, Wisconsin, USA. The phase-lag function between precipitation and groundwater response is used to estimate recharge travel time. The recharge travel time and precipitation–groundwater–lake interactions have been traditionally studied using time-domain methods such as physically-based modeling. In this article, the innovative and efficient use of spectral methods is demonstrated to uncover the time scales that are significant in those interactions and estimate the recharge travel time, which is extracted from the underlying daily time series data. The results consistently show that precipitation leads groundwater-level response by up to 5 days in all cases. The effects of precipitation on lake and groundwater levels display strong similarities. Both the precipitation–lake level and the precipitation–groundwater level coherency functions show significant peaks at interannual and seasonal frequencies. The groundwater level–lake level coherency function shows a significant, broad peak at interannual frequencies, and no significant peak at seasonal frequencies, demonstrating the predominance of annual and lower frequencies in groundwater–lake interaction.     

<Emphasis>H</Emphasis>ydrological variability of the <Emphasis>S</Emphasis>oummam watershed <Emphasis>(N</Emphasis>ortheastern <Emphasis>A</Emphasis>lgeria<Emphasis>)</Emphasis> and the possible links to climate fluctuations

The long-term variability of rainfall in the Soummam watershed (NE Algeria) has been analysed over the past 108 years using continuous wavelet method in order to identify the interannual modes controlling the rainfall variability. Statistical analyses of rainfall timeseries have shown its distribution following five periods of time, limited by a series of discontinuities around 1935, 1950, 1970 and 1990. The continuous wavelet transform have demonstrated different low frequency modes: 2–4, 4–8, 8–16 and 16–32 years.The annual band is expanded during the full study period with some pics around 1905, 1920–1935 and 1960; it shows a negative long-term trend, in particular since the period 1970–1990 when a major change has been identified. Then, the relationships between climate patterns of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the hydrological variability in the frequency domain have been investigated; they have shown a mean explained variance of 40 and 24 %, respectively. Such variances are less obvious for the annual mode and increase for the interannual frequencies. The coherence suffer from high perturbations since the period 1970–1990 when the NAO (SOI) shifts from negative (positive) phases to positive (negative) ones. Such anomalies are responsible for significant changes of rainfall variability, emphasising the global warming effects.     

Climatic and geologic controls on the piezometry of the Querença-Silves karst aquifer,Algarve (Portugal)

Karst aquifers in semi-arid regions, like Querença-Silves (Portugal), are particularly vulnerable to climate variability. For the first time in this region, the temporal structure of a groundwater-level time series (1985–2010) was explored using the continuous wavelet transform. The investigation focused on a set of four piezometers, two at each side of the S. Marcos-Quarteira fault, to demonstrate how each of the two sectors of the aquifer respond to climate-induced patterns. Singular spectral analysis applied to an extended set of piezometers enabled identification of several quasi-periodic modes of variability, with periods of 6.5, 4.3, 3.2 and 2.6 years, which can be explained by low-frequency climate patterns. The geologic forcing accounts for ~15 % of the differential variability between the eastern and western sectors of the aquifer. The western sector displays spatially homogenous piezometric variations, large memory effects and low-pass filtering characteristics, which are consistent with relatively large and uniform values of water storage capacity and transmissivity properties. In this sector, the 6.5-year mode of variability accounts for ~70 % of the total variance of the groundwater levels. The eastern sector shows larger spatial and temporal heterogeneity, is more reactive to short-term variations, and is less influenced by the low-frequency components related to climate patterns.     

海潮及其影响下海岸带地下水位时间序列的周期性和滞后性

运用谱分析原理，对广西北海市海潮及受海潮影响的滨海含水层地下水位时间序列进行分析，求出海潮和观测孔水位变化的周期及地下水位滞后于海潮的时间，分析水位滞后时间与离海岸的垂直距离之间的关系。结果表明，北海市海潮和海岸带地下水位有约344．82h（14．37d）的长周期变化和约24．7h、12．5h的短周期波动，距海岸2175、2350、2375m的3个观测孔地下水位对海潮的滞后时间分别为5．5、6．25和7h，滞后时间随离海岸的距离增大大体上呈线性增加。     

雄安新区地下水水位与降水及北太平洋指数的小波分析

基于1991—2016年雄安新区4个地下水监测孔的长时间序列水位数据、降水数据及北太平洋指数（North.Pacific.Index,NPI）,采用连续小波、交叉小波变换等方法,分析了三者的周期性变化及其之间的相互关系。结果表明:（1）雄安新区地下水水位、降水与NPI的主波动周期及各序列间共振周期均为1.a。（2）丰水年的地下水水位时滞小于全时段的地下水水位时滞,高降水量对潜水-承压水水位时滞的影响大于对承压水的影响。（3）地下水水位对NPI的时滞大于对降水的时滞;在丰水年,地下水水位对NPI的响应更快;地下水对降水和NPI的响应速度,明确反映了研究区地下水水位动态变化的主要气候影响因素是降水。     

基于相空间重构和小波分析-粒子群向量机的滑坡地下水位预测

预测滑坡地下水位的动态演变过程对滑坡稳定性分析具有重要意义, 三峡库区库岸滑坡地下水位时间序列受多种因素影响, 呈现出高度非线性非平稳的特征.为对其进行预测, 提出一种基于相空间重构的小波分析-粒子群优化支持向量机(wavelet analysis-support vector machine, 简称WA-PSVM)模型.该模型引入小波变换法对地下水位序列进行时频分解, 将非平稳的地下水位序列转变为多个不同分辨率尺度下的较平稳的地下水位子序列; 然后重构各子序列的相空间, 再利用PSVM(全称support vector machine)模型对地下水位各子序列进行预测, 最后将各子序列预测值相加得到最终预测结果.以三峡库区三舟溪滑坡前缘STK-1水文孔日平均地下水位序列为例, 首先分析滑坡前缘地下水位变化的影响因素, 再将WA-PSVM模型应用于地下水位预测, 并与单独PSVM模型和小波分析-BP网络模型(wavelet analysis-back propagation, 简称WA-BP)作对比.结果表明: 滑坡前缘地下水位受降雨和库水位影响较大, 利用WA-PSVM模型对STK-1水文孔地下水位进行预测的均方根误差为0.073m、拟合优度为0.966, WA-PSVM模型预测精度高于单独PSVM模型和WA-BP模型.WA-PSVM模型解决了地下水位序列非线性非平稳的问题, 在不考虑影响因素的情况下能获得满意的预测效果, 具有较高的建模效率和较强的实用性.      

Climate dynamics and interdecadal discharge fluctuations in the Ural River basin

Data gathered from the mean annual water expenditures of the Ural River basin, obtained at 15 hydrological stations over a 70-year observation period was used to analyze its water content fluctuations and the correlation of discharge oscillations with different climate indices. Based on the Morlet-6 wavelet, the method of continuous wavelet transformation was applied to reveal latent periodicities in the discharge series. To establish factors responsible for discharge cycles, a cross wavelet analysis was performed on solar activity, types of Vangengeim atmospheric circulation, and three climate indices: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Arctic Oscillation.     

Mechanism of sinkhole formation during groundwater-level recovery in karst mining area,Dachengqiao, Hunan province,China

The Meitanba Coal Mine area in Hunan province, China, had been impacted by severe cover collapse sinkholes since 1982 due to mine dewatering. After the coal mine was closed in February 2015, the groundwater level has increased significantly. A series of sinkholes were recorded in the study area during groundwater-level recovery. Analysis of monitoring results and in-situ investigation indicated that 13 sinkhole collapses were more likely induced by abrupt change of groundwater–air pressure in response to heavy rainfall from March 2015 to July 2016 when the groundwater level increased by as much as 76 m. When the karst conduit was flooded, a relatively sealed environment was formed between saturated sediments and flooded karst conduit. Implosion of entrapped air might have caused the cave roof to collapse followed by surface collapses in a short time. On the other hand, four sinkholes occurred in November 2016 when the groundwater levels were near the soil–bedrock interface at elevations between 52.5 and 58.9 m amsl and the groundwater-level increase was at slower paces. Field measurements indicate that the groundwater-level fluctuation at the soil–bedrock interface could enlarge the soil cavity and accelerate the subsoil erosion process.     

Identification of the influencing factors on groundwater drought and depletion in north-western Bangladesh

Groundwater drought is a specific type of hydrological drought that concerns groundwater bodies. It may have a significant adverse effect on the socio-economic, agricultural, and environmental conditions. Investigating the effect of different climatic and anthropogenic factors on groundwater drought provides essential information for sustainable planning and management of (ground) water resources. The aim of this study is to identify the influencing factors on groundwater drought in north-western Bangladesh, to understand the forcing mechanisms. A multi-step methodology is proposed to achieve this objective. The standardised precipitation index (SPI) and reconnaissance drought index (RDI) have been used to quantify the aggregated deficit between precipitation and the evaporative demand of the atmosphere, i.e. meteorological drought. The influence of land-cover patterns on the groundwater drought has been identified by calculating spatially distributed groundwater recharge as a function of land cover. Groundwater drought is defined by a threshold method. The results show that the evapotranspiration and rainfall deficits are determining meteorological drought, which shows a direct relation with groundwater recharge deficits. Land-cover change has a small effect on groundwater recharge but does not seem to be the main cause of groundwater-level decline (depletion) in the study area. The groundwater depth and groundwater-level deficit (drought) is continuously increasing with little correlation to meteorological drought or recharge anomalies. Overexploitation of groundwater for irrigation seems to be the main cause of groundwater-level decline in the study area. Efficient irrigation management is essential to reduce the growing pressure on groundwater resources and ensure sustainable water management.     

Investigation of the climate-driven periodicity of shallow groundwater level fluctuations in a Central-Eastern European agricultural region

The distribution and amount of groundwater, a crucial source of Earth’s drinking and irrigation water, is changing due to climate-change effects. Therefore, it is important to understand groundwater behavior in extreme scenarios, e.g. drought. Shallow groundwater (SGW) level fluctuation under natural conditions displays periodic behavior, i.e. seasonal variation. Thus, the study aims to investigate (1) the periodic behavior of the SGW level time series of an agriculturally important and drought-sensitive region in Central-Eastern Europe – the Carpathian Basin, in the north-eastern part of the Great Hungarian Plain, and (2) its relationship to the European atmospheric pressure action centers. Data from 216 SGW wells were studied using wavelet spectrum analysis and wavelet coherence analyses for 1961–2010. Locally, a clear relationship exists between the absence of annual periodic behavior in the SGW level and the periodicity of droughts, as indicated by the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index and the Aridity Index. During the non-periodic intervals, significant drops in groundwater levels (average 0.5 m) were recorded in 89% of the wells. This result links the meteorological variables to the periodic behavior of SGW, and consequently, drought. On a regional scale, Mediterranean cyclones from the Gulf of Genoa (northwest Italy) were found to be a driving factor in the 8-yr periodic behavior of the SGW wells. The research documents an important link between SGW levels and local/regional climate variables or indices, thereby facilitating the necessary adaptation strategies on national and/or regional scales, as these must take into account the predictions of drought-related climatic conditions.     

Decoupling of stalagmite-derived Asian summer monsoon records from North Atlantic temperature change during marine oxygen isotope stage 5d

The Asian monsoon is an important component of the global climate system. Seasonal variations in wind, rainfall, and temperature associated with the Asian monsoon systems affect a vast expanse of tropical and subtropical Asia. Speleothem-derived summer monsoon variation in East Asia was previously found to be closely associated with millennial-scale change in temperature in the North Atlantic region between 75 and 10 ka. New evidence recovered from East Asia, however, suggests that the teleconnection between summer monsoon in East Asia and temperature change in the North Atlantic region may have significantly reduced during 120 to ~ 110 ka, a period directly after the full last interglaciation and corresponding roughly to marine oxygen isotope stage 5d. This reduction may be due to the low ice volume in the North Hemisphere at that time, which makes the millennial-scale change in temperature in the North Atlantic region less effective in influencing the Asian summer monsoon. This is important for investigating the mechanisms controlling the Asian summer monsoon and the paleoclimatic teleconnection between East Asia and the North Atlantic region, and for predicting monsoon-associated precipitation in East Asia under a global-warming trend.     

我国北方典型岩溶地下水位对降水及气象指数的响应特征——以鲁中地区为例

我国北方岩溶水资源是其经济社会发展的重要资源基础,表征水资源赋存特征的岩溶地下水位动态及其影响因素分析能够为岩溶水资源管理及合理开发利用提供重要支撑。本文选取鲁中地区3个典型水文地质单元,基于2010-2017年月值降水、地下水位及NPI气象指数数据,采用小波分析方法对上述指标的周期性、响应特征及遥相关特征进行了分析。结果表明:（1）各岩溶地下水位动态、降水与NPI的主波动周期均为1 a,其显著周期与分布时段等的异同是受自然条件和人类活动共同作用的结果。（2）各水文地质单元岩溶水位对降水的响应时滞为95.81~146.64 d,其差异主要源于观测站所处的地下水流系统的位置的不同。（3）NPI与降水存在一定的遥相关,与受降水影响的岩溶水位动态也存在遥相关。各岩溶水位对NPI的遥相关时滞为111.75~169.77 d,相比水位对降水时滞有所增加。鲁中岩溶地区地下水位对降水与NPI存在规律性的响应时滞,此种特征可为我国北方岩溶地下水位的预警预报提供帮助。      

Links between NAO fluctuations and inter-annual variability of winter-months precipitation in the Seine River watershed (north-western France)

The inter-annual to multi-decadal winter variability (DJFM) of precipitation on the Seine River watershed (France) was analysed using continuous wavelet transform analysis and compared to the winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI). Nine weather stations were used over the 1951 to 2004 period and confirmed the homogeneity of inter-annual fluctuations for all stations but one. Wavelet coherence between SLP over the Icelandic and Azores regions and precipitation highlighted coherence for different scales of variability according to the centre of action considered. Segmentation and wavelet analysis and coherence between precipitation and NAOI over a long period of time (1873–2004) showed: i) increasing variability across the last century at most time scales, especially for NAOI; ii) the existence of change points for the mean and variance of both signals; iii) overall discontinuity of the coherence whatever the scale considered, especially between ∼1910 and ∼1955 for inter-decennial to pluri-decennial scales.     

Least-Squares Wavelet Analysis of Unequally Spaced and Non-stationary Time Series and Its Applications

Least-squares spectral analysis, an alternative to the classical Fourier transform, is a method of analyzing unequally spaced and non-stationary time series in their first and second statistical moments. However, when a time series has components with low or high amplitude and frequency variability over time, it is not appropriate to use either the least-squares spectral analysis or Fourier transform. On the other hand, the classical short-time Fourier transform and the continuous wavelet transform do not consider the covariance matrix associated with a time series nor do they consider trends or datum shifts. Moreover, they are not defined for unequally spaced time series. A new method of analyzing time series, namely, the least-squares wavelet analysis is introduced, which is a natural extension of the least-squares spectral analysis. This method decomposes a time series to the time–frequency domain and obtains its spectrogram. In addition, the probability distribution function of the spectrogram is derived that identifies statistically significant peaks. The least-squares wavelet analysis can analyze any non-stationary and unequally spaced time series with components of low or high amplitude and frequency variability, including datum shifts, trends, and constituents of known forms, by taking into account the covariance matrix associated with the time series. The outstanding performance of the proposed method on synthetic time series and a very long baseline interferometry series is demonstrated, and the results are compared with the weighted wavelet Z-transform.     

Climate reconstruction for the Entre‐Douro‐e‐Minho region (NW Portugal) between AD 1626 and AD 1820: synthesis of viticulture data and foraminiferal evidence

This work presents two novel climate‐related time series for the northwest of Portugal. The first is an AD 1626–1820 triennial‐resolved wine production series, based on the Benedictine accounts from six monasteries of the Entre‐Douro‐e‐Minho (EDM) region. The second, an AD 1654–2010 benthic foraminiferal record from the Caminha salt marsh, located in the lower estuary of the Minho River. The series were analysed together for the common period to outline how both palaeoclimatic proxies respond to the most likely natural environmental drivers of temporal variability, solar forcing included. Singular spectral analysis revealed a common significant multidecadal periodicity agreeing with recognized long‐term changes in solar activity, i.e. the Lower Gleissberg cycle (50–80 years). The application of wavelet analysis allowed the detection of high coherence at this time scale (centred at c. 64 years) between marsh foraminifera and both total solar irradiance and the North Atlantic Oscillation index. This relationship persists throughout the c. AD 1730–1875 period. The continuous wavelet transform results for wine production were inconclusive. As the time‐span analysed is recognized as one of high socio‐economic and political distress, the main human‐driven impacts on wine production, particularly in the two periods of greatly reduced solar activity – the Maunder and Dalton Minima – are reviewed in the light of the available historical records. In addition to a documented climate‐related agricultural crisis in Portugal, damage and losses to wine production may have been triggered by several local and international conflicts in which the country was involved. But to what extent the two influences contributed to the wine production variations observed in the EDM region during both periods remains an open question.     

Trends in groundwater levels in wells in the active management areas of Arizona, USA

In 1980, the Arizona legislature passed the Groundwater Management Act (GMA), creating the active management areas (AMAs) to protect shared groundwater resources and to control severe overdrafts occurring in many parts of the state. With the 30-year anniversary of the GMA approaching, this article addresses the question: Have there been notable changes in the trends in observed groundwater levels in the AMAs from before enactment of the GMA until present? New tools developed for the US Geological Survey’s National Water Availability and Use Pilot Program are used to analyze and present trends in observed groundwater level data. Trends in groundwater levels in the AMAs were investigated for 10-year time periods from 1970 through 1999 and an 9-year period from 2000–2008. Results indicate that the number of wells with rising trends in water levels increased and the number of wells with falling trends in water levels decreased during the early decades after passage of the GMA in the most-populated Phoenix and heavily agricultural Pinal AMAs. However, these trends in water levels are reversed during the 1995–2004 time period. The value of trend analyses would be improved by consistent groundwater-level monitoring in both developed and undeveloped areas of the region.     

中国陕西关中及周边地区近500年来初夏干燥指数序列的重建

本文采用华山东峰、西峰和南峰的华山松树轮宽度差值年表重建了1500年以来中国陕西关中及周边地区的初夏干燥指数序列,对重建序列进行了统计特征分析,并同大尺度大气环流场进行了相关分析。结果表明:华山年表的变化与该地区初夏平均干燥指数序列的变化具有很好的一致性,可用来重建该地区的初夏干燥指数序列;该地区在1502～1511年、1570～1580年以及1807～1814年间的初夏季节存在3次较为严重的干旱;该地区初夏干燥指数变化存在着较为明显的周期特征,其中以13a左右和4a左右的周期最为显著,但周期特征在不同的历史阶段存在着明显的差异;重建序列在1784年前后发生了一次较大幅度的方差变化,而1587年前后的均值突变则表现为干燥指数值的急剧降低;该地区初夏季节的干燥程度可能与前期极涡的中心强度及冷空气活动有关。     

Spatio-temporal analysis of recent groundwater-level trends in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

A groundwater-monitoring network has been in operation in the Red River Delta, Vietnam, since 1995. Trends in groundwater level (1995?C2009) in 57 wells in the Holocene unconfined aquifer and 63 wells in the Pleistocene confined aquifer were determined by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen??s slope estimator. At each well, 17 time series (e.g. annual, seasonal, monthly), computed from the original data, were analyzed. Analysis of the annual groundwater-level means revealed that 35?% of the wells in the unconfined aquifer showed downward trends, while about 21?% showed upward trends. On the other hand, confined-aquifer groundwater levels experienced downward trends in almost all locations. Spatial distributions of trends indicated that the strongly declining trends (>0.3?m/year) were mainly found in urban areas around Hanoi where there is intensive abstraction of groundwater. Although the trend results for most of the 17 time series at a given well were quite similar, different trend patterns were detected in several. The findings reflect unsustainable groundwater development and the importance of maintaining groundwater monitoring and a database in the Delta, particularly in urban areas.     

Wavelet Analysis and Filtering to Identify Dominant Orientations of Permeability Anisotropy

An accurate representation of permeability anisotropy is needed to model the rate and direction of groundwater flow correctly. We develop a wavelet analysis technique that can be used to characterize principal directions of anisotropy in both stationary and non-stationary permeability fields. Wavelet analysis involves the integral transform of a field using a wavelet as a kernel. The wavelet is shifted, scaled, and rotated to analyze different locations, sizes, and orientations of the field. The wavelet variance is used to identify scales and orientations that dominate the field. If the field is non-stationary, such that different zones of the field are characterized by different dominant scales or orientations, the wavelet variance can identify all dominant scales and orientations if they are distinct. If the dominant scales and orientations of different zones are similar, the wavelet variance identifies only the dominant scale and orientation of the primary zone. In this paper, we present a combined wavelet analysis and filtering approach to identify all dominant scales and orientations in a non-stationary permeability field. We apply the method to permeability data obtained in the laboratory from the Massillon sandstone.     

Comparison of GRACE data and groundwater levels for the assessment of groundwater depletion in Jordan

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) derived groundwater storage (GWS) data are compared with in-situ groundwater levels from five groundwater basins in Jordan, using newly gridded GRACE GRCTellus land data. It is shown that (1) the time series for GRACE-derived GWS data and in-situ groundwater-level measurements can be correlated, with R ² from 0.55 to 0.74, (2) the correlation can be widely ascribed to the seasonal and trend component, since the detrended and deseasonalized time series show no significant correlation for most cases, implying that anomalous signals that deviate from the trend or seasonal behaviour are overlaid by noise, (3) estimates for water losses in Jordan based on the trend of GRACE data from 2003 to 2013 could be up to four times higher than previously assumed using estimated recharge and abstraction rates, and (4) a significant time-lagged cross correlation of the monthly changes in GRACE-derived groundwater storage and precipitation data was found, suggesting that the conventional method for deriving GWS from GRACE data probably does not account for the typical conditions in the study basins. Furthermore, a new method for deriving plausible specific yields from GRACE data and groundwater levels is demonstrated.