A mixed-layer model for regional evaporation

A simple mixed-layer model is developed to describe evaporation into a convective planetary boundary layer (PBL). The model comprises volume budget equations for temperature and humidity, equations to describe transport through the surface layer which is treated as part of the lower boundary, and equations to describe entrainment at the top of the PBL. The ground surface is modelled as a canopy resistance. The model was integrated with canopy resistance, surface-layer resistance and available energy, (R _n – G), input as given functions of time, and the simulated PBL was allowed to grow into an atmosphere with known temperature and humidity profiles.Two variants of the mixed-layer model were tested using data from the KNMI tower site at Cabauw in the Netherlands. These variants differed only in the formulation of entrainment: one used a formulation developed by Driedonks (1982) while the other was a simpler formulation. Simulated evaporation agreed very well with observations irrespective of which entrainment formulation was used, despite discrepancies between simulated and observed PBL height growth which were sometimes quite large for the simpler formulation. Sensitivity analysis of the model confirms that good PBL height-growth predictions are not always a prerequisite for good evaporation predictions.     

Tropical sea surface temperature: An interactive one-dimensional atmosphere-ocean model

Because the atmosphere and ocean are interacting systems, it is inappropriate to specify sea surface temperature when dealing with the atmosphere, or atmospheric anemometer level temperature and moisture when dealing with the ocean. All of these quantities should be determined interactively in terms of the external forcing: the solar constant.In the tropics, it is shown that the (cumulus) convective processes may be described by a one-dimensional cloud model. The near-surface ocean may similarly be described by a one-dimensional mixed-layer model. The coupling is achieved through a sea surface flux budget combined with the flux parameterizations implied by Monin-Obukhov similarity theory.The coupled one-dimensional atmosphere-ocean model is applied to the equilibrium situation in which all temperatures reach a steady state. Since the ocean, lacking an internal heating or cooling mechanism, can only be heated or cooled through sensibleheat fluxes through the sea surface, in equilibrium these fluxes must vanish. The atmosphere, however, maintains a stable lapse rate by balancing cumulonimbus heating against net radiative cooling. All water precipitated from cumulonimbus clouds must have evaporated from sea surface. It is shown that this equilibrium system is closed and determinable solely in terms of the solar constant.For various values of the solar constant, the sea surface temperature, the flux of latent and sensible heat from the surface, the height of the tropopause, mixed layer, and trade inversion layer, and generally, the entire vertical structure of the tropical atmosphere and near-surface ocean can be determined. The equilibrium sea surface temperature is shown to be relatively insensitive to changes in the solar constant, additional solar flux being compensated mainly by additional evaporation. Finally, the usefulness and limitations of the model are pointed out.     

An efficient PBL model for global circulation models-design and validation

An efficient, pianetary boundary layer (PBL) model is developed and validated with empirical data for applications in general circulation models (GCMs). The purpose of this PBL model is to establish the turbulent surface fluxes as a function of the principal external PBL parameters in a numerically efficient way. It consists of a surface layer and a mixed layer matched together with the conditions of constant momentum and heat flux at the interface. An algebraic solution to the mean momentum equations describes the mixed-layer velocity profile and thus determines the surface wind vector. The velocity profile is globally valid by incorporating the effect of variable Coriolis force without becoming singular at the equator. Turbulent diffusion depends on atmospheric stability and is modeled in the surface layer by a drag law and with first-order closure in the mixed layer. Radiative cooling in the stably stratified PBL is considered in a simple manner. The coupled system is solved by an iterative method. In order to preserve the computational efficiency of the large-scale model, the PBL model is implemented into the GISS GCM by means of look-up tables with the bulk PBL Richardson number, PBL depth, neutral drag coefficient, and latitude as independent variables.A validation of the PBL model with observed data in the form of Rossby number similarity theory shows that the internal feedback mechanisms are represented correctly. The model, however, underpredicted the sensible heat-flux. A subsequent correction in the turbulence parameterization yields better agreement with the empirical data. The behavior of the principal internal PBL quantities is presented for a range of thermal stabilities and latitudes.     

Large-Eddy Simulation of the Daytime Boundary Layer in an Idealized Valley Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Numerical Model

A three-dimensional numerical meteorological model is used to perform large-eddy simulations of the upslope flow circulation over a periodic ridge-valley terrain. The subgrid-scale quantities are modelled using a prognostic turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) scheme, with a grid that has a constant horizontal resolution of 50 m and is stretched along the vertical direction. To account for the grid anisotropy, a modified subgrid length scale is used. To allow for the response of the surface fluxes to the valley-flow circulation, the soil surface temperature is imposed and the surface heat and momentum fluxes are computed based on Monin–Obukhov similarity theory. The model is designed with a symmetrical geometry using periodic boundary conditions in both the x and y directions. Two cases are simulated to study the influence of along-valley geostrophic wind forcing with different intensities. The presence of the orography introduces numerous complexities both in the mean properties of the flow and in the turbulent features, even for the idealized symmetric geometry. Classical definitions for the height of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) are revisited and redefined to capture the complex structure of the boundary layer. Analysis of first- and second-moment statistics, along with TKE budget, highlights the different structure of the PBL at different regions of the domain.     

Heat and moisture budgets from airborne measurements and high-resolution model simulations

High-resolution simulations with a mesoscale model are performed to estimate heat and moisture budgets of a well-mixed boundary layer. The model budgets are validated against energy budgets obtained from airborne measurements over heterogeneous terrain in Western Germany. Time rate of change, vertical divergence, and horizontal advection for an atmospheric column of air are estimated. Results show that the time trend of specific humidity exhibits some deficiencies, while the potential temperature trend is matched accurately. Furthermore, the simulated turbulent surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat are comparable to the measured fluxes, leading to similar values of the vertical divergence. The analysis of different horizontal model resolutions exhibits improved surface fluxes with increased resolution, a fact attributed to a reduced aggregation effect. Scale-interaction effects could be identified: while time trends and advection are strongly influenced by mesoscale forcing, the turbulent surface fluxes are mainly controlled by microscale processes.     

Climate response to the physiological impact of carbon dioxide on plants in the Met Office Unified Model HadCM3

The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere acts to control the stomatal conductance of plants. There is observational and modelling evidence that an increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ would suppress the evapotranspiration (ET) rate over land. This process is known as CO₂ physiological forcing and has been shown to induce changes in surface temperature and continental runoff. We analyse two transient climate simulations for the twenty-first century to isolate the climate response to the CO₂ physiological forcing. The land surface warming associated with the decreased ET rate is accompanied by an increase in the atmospheric lapse rate, an increase in specific humidity, but a decrease in relative humidity and stratiform cloud over land. We find that the water vapour feedback more than compensates for the decrease in latent heat flux over land as far as the budget of atmospheric water vapour is concerned. There is evidence that surface snow, water vapour and cloudiness respond to the CO₂ physiological forcing and all contribute to further warm the climate system. The climate response to the CO₂ physiological forcing has a quite different signature to that from the CO₂ radiative forcing, especially in terms of the changes in the temperature vertical profile and surface energy budget over land.     

Global energy budget changes to high latitude North Atlantic cooling and the tropical ITCZ response

The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in atmospheric general circulation models (coupled to slab ocean) shift southwards in response to northern extratropical cooling. Previous studies have demonstrated the utility of diagnosing the atmospheric energy fluxes in interpreting this teleconnection. This study investigates the nature of global energy flux changes in response to North Atlantic high latitude cooling applied to the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 coupled to a slab ocean, focusing on key local and remote feedbacks that collectively act to alter the energy budget and atmospheric energy transport. We also investigate the relative roles of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and energy flux changes in the ITCZ response to North Atlantic cooling. Using a radiative kernel technique, we quantify the effects of key feedbacks—temperature, cloud and water vapor, to the top-of-the-atmosphere radiative flux changes. The results show only partial local energy flux compensation to the initial perturbation in the high latitudes, originating from the negative temperature feedback and opposed by positive shortwave albedo and longwave water vapor feedbacks. Thus, an increase in the atmospheric energy transport to the Northern extratropics is required to close the energy budget. The additional energy flux providing this increase comes from top-of-the-atmosphere radiative flux increase over the southern tropics, primarily from cloud, temperature and longwave water vapor feedbacks, and largely as a consequence of increased deep convection. It has been previously argued that the role of tropical SST changes was secondary to the role played by the atmospheric energy flux requirements in controlling the ITCZ shifts, proposing that the SST response is a result of the surface energy budget and not a driver of the precipitation response. Using a set of idealized simulations with the fixed tropical SSTs, we demonstrate that the ITCZ shifts are not possible without the tropical SST changes and suggest that the tropical SSTs are a more suitable driver of tropical precipitation shifts compared to the atmospheric energy fluxes. In our simulations, the ITCZ shifts are influenced mainly by the local (tropical) SST forcing, apparently independent of the actual high latitude energy demand.     

A regional and global analysis of carbon dioxide physiological forcing and its impact on climate

An increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration has both a radiative (greenhouse) effect and a physiological effect on climate. The physiological effect forces climate as plant stomata do not open as wide under enhanced CO₂ levels and this alters the surface energy balance by reducing the evapotranspiration flux to the atmosphere, a process referred to as ‘carbon dioxide physiological forcing’. Here the climate impact of the carbon dioxide physiological forcing is isolated using an ensemble of twelve 5-year experiments with the Met Office Hadley Centre HadCM3LC fully coupled atmosphere–ocean model where atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are instantaneously quadrupled and thereafter held constant. Fast responses (within a few months) to carbon dioxide physiological forcing are analyzed at a global and regional scale. Results show a strong influence of the physiological forcing on the land surface energy budget, hydrological cycle and near surface climate. For example, global precipitation rate reduces by ~3% with significant decreases over most land-regions, mainly from reductions to convective rainfall. This fast hydrological response is still evident after 5 years of model integration. Decreased evapotranspiration over land also leads to land surface warming and a drying of near surface air, both of which lead to significant reductions in near surface relative humidity (~6%) and cloud fraction (~3%). Patterns of fast responses consistently show that results are largest in the Amazon and central African forest, and to a lesser extent in the boreal and temperate forest. Carbon dioxide physiological forcing could be a source of uncertainty in many model predicted quantities, such as climate sensitivity, transient climate response and the hydrological sensitivity. These results highlight the importance of including biological components of the Earth system in climate change studies.     

An upper ocean general circulation model for climate studies: global simulation with seasonal cycle

The global ocean circulation with a seasonal cycle has been simulated with a two-and-a-half layer upper-ocean model. This model was developed for the purpose of coupling to an atmospheric general circulation model for climate studies on decadal time scales. The horizontal resolution is 4° latitude by 5° longitude and is thus not eddy-resolving. Effects of bottom topography are neglected. In the vertical, the model resolves the oceanic mixed layer and the thermocline. A thermodynamic sea-ice model is coupled to the mixed layer. The model is forced at the surface with seasonally varying (a) observed wind stress, (b) heat fluxes, as defined by an atmospheric equilibrium temperature, and (c) Newtonian-type surface salt fluxes. The second layer is coupled to the underlying deep ocean through Newtonian-type diffusive heat and salt fluxes, convective overturning, and mass entrainment in the upwelling regions of the subpolar gyres. The overall global distributions of mixed layer temperature, salinity and thickness are favorably reproduced. Inherent limitations due to coarse horizontal resolution result in large mixed-layer temperature errors near continental boundaries and in weak current systems. Sea ice distributions agree well with observations except in the interiors of the Ross and Weddell Seas. A realistic time rate of change of heat storage is simulated. There is also realistic heat transport from low to high latitudes.     

Polar amplification as a preferred response in an idealized aquaplanet GCM

An aquaplanet atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a mixed layer ocean is analyzed in terms of its polar amplified surface temperature response to a 2×CO₂-like steady forcing and in terms of the phase space trajectory of the relaxation of a free perturbation to equilibrium. In earlier studies concerned with linear stability analysis of the same system we have shown that the least stable mode of the linearized surface budget operator has a polar amplified shape. We demonstrate that this shape of the least stable mode is responsible for the polar amplified shape of the response to a uniform forcing and for the manner in which the system relaxes back to equilibrium. Based on GCM and simple energy balance model results it is argued that the decay time-scale of this mode is determined by the sensitivity of the net top-of-atmosphere radiation to surface temperature while its shape (and thus the degree of polar amplification in a climate change experiment) is determined by the sensitivity of poleward heat transports to low- and high-latitude temperatures by the faster time-scale atmospheric dynamics. This implies that the underlying mechanisms for the polar amplification may be obscured when studying feedbacks during the slow evolution of climate change or considering only the new equilibrium state after introduction of a steady forcing.     

An investigation of the sensitivity of a land surface model to climate change using a reduced form model

 In an illustration of a model evaluation methodology, a multivariate reduced form model is developed to evaluate the sensitivity of a land surface model to changes in atmospheric forcing. The reduced form model is constructed in terms of a set of ten integrative response metrics, including the timing of spring snow melt, sensible and latent heat fluxes in summer, and soil temperature. The responses are evaluated as a function of a selected set of six atmospheric forcing perturbations which are varied simultaneously, and hence each may be thought of as a six-dimensional response surface. The sensitivities of the land surface model are interdependent and in some cases illustrate a physically plausible feedback process. The important predictors of land surface response in a changing climate are the atmospheric temperature and downwelling longwave radiation. Scenarios characterized by warming and drying produce a large relative response compared to warm, moist scenarios. The insensitivity of the model to increases in precipitation and atmospheric humidity is expected to change in applications to coupled models, since these parameters are also strongly implicated, through the representation of clouds, in the simulation of both longwave and shortwave radiation. Received: 27 March 2000 / Accepted: 11 September 2000     

The variance of sea surface temperature and projected changes with global warming

Based on the surface energy budget, the sea surface temperature (SST) variance is related to the product of three factors: the sum of the variances of surface radiative and turbulent energy fluxes and of ocean heat transport, an efficiency factor depending on the covariances among them, and a transfer factor involving the persistence of surface temperature via its lagged autocorrelation. These quantities are analyzed for current climate conditions based on results from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and a simulation with the CCCma coupled climate model. Potential changes with climate change are considered based on two quasi-equilibrium climate change integrations for which the forcing has been stabilized at years 2050 and 2100 values of the IS92a forcing scenario. The surface energy fluxes, which contribute to the variance of SST, are similar in the modelled and reanalyzed atmosphere but modelled temperature variance is conditioned on the thickness of the upper ocean model layer. Changes of SST variance with global warming show broad scale patterns with decreases in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and the northern extra-tropical Pacific, and increases in both the sub-tropical Pacific and mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic. The changes in SST variance are not associated only with changes in the variances of surface energy fluxes/transports but also with changes in the covariances among them and by changes in the temperature autocorrelation structure.     

Climate change simulated by full and mixed-layer ocean versions of CSIRO Mk3.5 and Mk3.0: Large-scale sensitivity

The CSIRO Mk3.5 coupled atmosphere-ocean model includes upgrades to atmospheric and oceanic processes that remove a cold bias of the earlier Mk3.0. The global mean warming over the 21st century from Mk3.5 is 3.1 K under the CMIP3 A1B scenario, some 25% larger than that from Mk3.0. Two mixed-layer ocean versions of Mk3.5 were constructed, and these are also more sensitive than Mk3.0. To elucidate these differences, a simple feedback analysis is extended to Mk3.5, using changes for doubled CO₂ in each model version. The net feedback for the low-mid latitude region is the main driver of the sensitivity contrast. The clear-sky component is consistently larger in Mk3.5, as is the increase in specific humidity, even after standardizing by the global warming. Cloud forcing provides a small positive feedback, which is stronger in cases that had larger declines in low-layer cloud. The net positive feedback for the higher-latitude region is larger in the coupled Mk3.5 than Mk3.0, which had more stable Arctic sea ice. However, some contrasts differed among the versions. As for Mk3.0, the surface warming in the coupled Mk3.5 is suppressed over that from the MLO case. Over the ocean, the pattern of suppression is similar to the change in energy flux into the surface in the coupled model. There is also a gradient of equatorial warming in the Asia-Pacific region that relates to the change in net convergence of heat transport by ocean currents. The effect of this pattern on regional rainfall is a focus of Part 2 of the study.     

Frequency distributions of transient regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles of general circulation model simulations

Large ensembles of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations are required to explore modelling uncertainty and make probabilistic predictions of future transient climate change at regional scales. These are not yet computationally feasible so we have developed a technique to emulate the response of such an ensemble by scaling equilibrium patterns of climate change derived from much cheaper “slab” model ensembles in which the atmospheric component of an AOGCM is coupled to a mixed-layer ocean. Climate feedback parameters are diagnosed for each member of a slab model ensemble and used to drive an energy balance model (EBM) to predict the time-dependent response of global surface temperature expected for different combinations of uncertain AOGCM parameters affecting atmospheric, land and sea-ice processes. The EBM projections are then used to scale normalised patterns of change derived for each slab member, and hence emulate the response of the relevant atmospheric model version when coupled to a dynamic ocean, in response to a 1% per annum increase in CO₂. The emulated responses are validated by comparison with predictions from a 17 member ensemble of AOGCM simulations, constructed from variants of HadCM3 using the same parameter combinations as 17 members of the slab model ensemble. Cross-validation permits estimation of the spatial and temporal dependence of emulation error, and also allows estimation of a correction field to correct discrepancies between the scaled equilibrium patterns and the transient response, reducing the emulation error. Emulated transient responses and their associated errors are obtained from the slab ensemble for 129 pseudo-HadCM3 versions containing multiple atmospheric parameter perturbations. These are combined to produce regional frequency distributions for the transient response of annual surface temperature change and boreal winter precipitation change. The technique can be extended to any surface climate variable demonstrating a scaleable, approximately linear response to forcing.     

Tropical precipitation, SSTs and the surface energy budget: a zonally symmetric perspective

The relative importance of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the surface energy budget to tropical precipitation is examined by comparing models with zonally symmetric climates, both fixed SST and coupled to a slab mixed layer ocean. Two models are considered with differing surface flux formulations and in each case solutions that are symmetric about the equator are perturbed to create interhemispheric asymmetry. When SSTs are prescribed in the two models with different flux formulations, the magnitude of tropical precipitation response to identical SST anomalies is significantly different, but the differences can be understood in terms of the altered surface fluxes. In contrast, when the net surface energy fluxes are constrained to be identical in mixed layer simulations of the two different models, the response of tropical precipitation to perturbations in the surface energy balance is very similar. Both perspectives predict qualitatively the same precipitation response, but the energy budget better predicts the magnitude of the precipitation response. Thus, we argue that the atmospheric energy budget, controlled in these experiments primarily by the surface energy budget, is more fundamental to the control of tropical precipitation than the SSTs, in these simulations with axisymmetric climates. We touch briefly on a complication in the interpretation of the model results due to the fact that fixed SST and slab-ocean versions of the model can produce different Hadley cell strengths for the same SSTs.     

Uncertainties in the GSWP-2 precipitation forcing and their impacts on regional and global hydrological simulations

The Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP) is an international initiative aimed at producing global data sets of soil wetness and energy and water fluxes by driving land surface models with state-of-the-art 1° by 1° atmospheric forcing and land surface parameters. It also provides a unique opportunity to develop and test land surface parameterizations at the global scale, using multi-year off-line simulations that are not affected by the systematic errors found in atmospheric models. Nevertheless, the accuracy and reliability of the 10?year GSWP-2 atmospheric forcing remain questionable. A first comparison using the high-resolution Rhône-AGGregation (Rhône-AGG) database reveals that the baseline GSWP-2 precipitation forcing is drastically overestimated over the Rhône river basin. Hydrological simulations driven with each dataset and using the ISBA land surface model and the MODCOU river routing model are also compared. The simulated river discharges are validated against a dense network of river gauges and are generally less realistic when using the GSWP-2 instead of the Rhône-AGG precipitation forcing. Secondly, the GSWP-2 precipitation forcing is compared with three alternative data sets (GPCP-2, CRU-2, CMAP) at the global scale. Moreover, the results of a global sensitivity study to the precipitation forcing conducted with six land surface models are shown. The TRIP river routing model is used to convert daily runoff from all models into river discharges, which are compared at 80 gauging stations distributed over the globe. In agreement with the regional evaluation, the results reveal that the baseline GSWP-2 precipitation forcing is generally overestimated over the mid and high latitudes, which implies systematic errors in the simulated discharges. This study reveals that the empirical wind corrections applied to the GSWP-2 precipitation forcing are exaggerated, whereas the GPCP satellite adjustments seem to be useful for simulating realistic annual mean river discharges over the East Siberian river basins.     

Dew Formation,Eddy-Correlation Latent Heat Fluxes,and the Surface Energy Imbalance at Cabauw During Stable Conditions

Observations collected between 2000 and 2008 at the Cabauw meteorological measurement platform in the Netherlands were conditionally sampled to select nights with stably stratified atmospheric conditions, clear skies and weak horizontal wind speeds (<3 m s⁻¹). For these conditions the eddy-correlation latent heat fluxes are found to be negligibly small, while the conditionally sampled surface energy balance exhibits a maximum residual. However, inspection of the specific humidities for these conditions reveals systematic drying trends that are a maximum at the lowest measurement level above the surface. These drying trends occur for any prevailing wind direction. Latent heat fluxes are calculated from the humidity budget equation and from a Penman-Monteith dewfall model, with the results suggesting that during clear, stable nights the observed latent heat fluxes as obtained from the eddy-correlation technique are erroneously small.     

Soil moisture: a residual problem underlying AGCMs

This paper critically reviews and intercompares land surface schemes (LSSs) as used in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to simulate soil moisture and its response to a warmer climate, and potential evapotranspiration approaches as used in operational soil moisture monitoring and in predicting the response of soil moisture to a warmer climate. AGCM predictions of overall soil moisture change are in broad agreement but disagree sharply in some regions. Intercomparison projects have sought to evaluate the LSSs used by AGCMs for both accuracy and consistency. These studies have found that different LSSs can produce very different simulations even when supplied with identical atmospheric forcing. As well, LSSs that produce similar surface results from present-day or control climates often diverge when forced with climatic change data. Furthermore, no single LSS has been identified that produces an adequate simulation of all of temperature, moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff. AGCM LSSs must resolve the surface energy balance (SEB) in order to compute realistic heat fluxes between with the atmospheric model. LSSs have been used with AGCMs in both on-line (fully coupled) and off-line modes. In off-line climatic change experiments, AGCM predictions of atmospheric temperature and precipitation have been used, along with model downward radiative fluxes at the surface, to drive their own uncoupled LSS. However, there are simple non-energy-balance methods for estimating evapotranspiration that have been traditionally used in agricultural and meteorological applications. These schemes compute a potential evapotranspiration (PE) based on temperature and/or net radiation inputs, with the PE modified based on the availability of soil moisture. Operational PE approaches have also been used with AGCM data in off-line climate change experiments. The advantages of this approach are that it is simpler and requires less information, although (like the off-line SEB approach) it leaves out the simulation of feedbacks between the surface and the atmosphere.Although the SEB approach is essential for LSSs that must be coupled to AGCMs, this does not necessarily make it superior to an off-line operational PE LSS when it comes to quantities such as soil moisture. The quality of current observational data is insufficient to demonstrate that either approach is better than the other. Both approaches should continue to be used and intercompared when predicting the impacts of climatic change on soil moisture.     

荒漠绿洲边界层结构的数值模拟

陆-气相互作用和中小尺度天气系统的研究中,水平不均匀边界层和水平不均匀地表的强迫作用都是重要的物理过程.本文用已建立的陆面过程与大气边界层耦合模式(BLCM),较详细地研究了草地周围为荒漠(半沙漠)的地表植被不均匀而造成的边界层结构特征和局地环流及其昼夜变化.通过边界层顶影响自由大气不同尺度的运动.模式结果揭示出最强的上升和下沉运动是发生在荒漠-草地间动力和热力不连续的界面附近,且呈现出不对称性.