美国国家地震减灾计划近况及新战略规划

美国国家地震减灾计划（NEHRP）是美国联邦政府层面地震减灾的主要协调计划。美国国会以有计划的重新授权形式不定期开展调整。分别在1990年、1997年、2000年和2004年以重新授权的方式对NEHRP工作重点和监督管理做了调整,实际上2004年重新授权法案到2009年已经到期,虽然美国国会每年会继续提供资金,但再次授权一直拖到2018年。在2018年的调整中,NEHRP做出重大方向性调整,以突出地震预警和地震韧性建设。2023年5月,NEHRP在其网站发布《NEHRP 2022—2029财年战略规划》,落实2018年再授权法案的调整要求,梳理整合既有目标及任务,制定了4个集成目标、18项支持任务,确定了8个重点投入领域。最新的法案调整和战略规划对美国下一阶段地震减灾工作有重要影响,对我国相关工作也有较强的参考借鉴意义。

     

中日美韩"地震减灾国际研讨会"简介

应韩国气象厅气象研究所的邀请,中国地震局地球物理研究所的郑需要研究员和郑秀芬博士于2005年12月18日至23日期间,赴韩国济州岛参加了由韩国气象厅气象研究所主办的第五届中、日、美、韩“地震减灾国际研讨会”(THE 5 TH INTERNATIONALW ORK-SHOP ON THE FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH     

国家防震减灾行政检查组来新疆维吾尔自治区进行防震减灾工作行政检查

20 0 1年 9月 2 0日至 9月 2 7日 ,以中国地震局党组副书记、副局长陈建民为组长 ,全国人大科教文卫委员会、国务院法制办、中国地震局等部门人员组成的国家防震减灾工作行政检查组一行 1 1人 ,来新疆对我区防震减灾工作进行行政检查。 2 0 0 1年 9月 2 0日下午和 9月 2 7日上午 ,自治区人民政府分别召开了汇报会和反馈意见会。检查组听取了自治区人民政府关于防震减灾工作情况汇报 ,同时向自治区人民政府通报了这次检查情况。自治区副主席熊辉银、买买提明·扎克尔分别出席了汇报会和反馈意见会。会议由阿尤甫·铁依甫秘书长主持。检查组认…     

Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazards in the Indian Subcontinent

—The Indian subcontinent is one of the most seismic prone areas of the world. The Himalayan mountains in the north, mid-oceanic ridges in the south and earthquake belts surrounding the Indian plate all show that the subcontinent has undergone extensive geological and tectonic processes in the past. The probability of the occurrence of earthquakes with magnitude 6<Mb<7 during a specified interval of time has been estimated on the basis of four probabilistic models namely Lognormal, Weibull, Gamma and Exponential distribution for the Indian subcontinent. The seismicity map has been prepared using the earthquake catalogue from the period 1963–1994, and six different zones have been identified on the basis of clustering of events. The model parameters have been estimated by the method of maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) and method of moments (MOM). A computer program package has been developed for all four models, which represents the distributions of time intervals fairly well. The logarithmic of likelihood (ln L) is estimated for testing the models and different models have been found to be plausible. The probability of different magnitude thresholds has been evaluated using the Gutenberg–Richter formula Log N = a - bM for magnitude distribution. The constants a and b have been computed for each region and found to be varying between 5.46–8.53 and 0.87–1.34, respectively.     

从印尼地震海啸看防震减灾宣传教育工作的作用和发展方向

本文以印尼8．7级强烈地震引发的海啸灾害的惨痛教训为切入点,启迪各级领导和社会公众深刻认识加强防震减灾宣传教育工作,不仅能减轻地震灾害造成的人员伤亡和经济损失,而且对保障国民经济建设健康、持续发展和社会稳定将起着积极的不可替代的作用,对构建和谐社会具有重要的现实意义和深远的历史意义。     

The Spanish National Earthquake Catalogue: Evolution,precision and completeness

This paper details the evolution, precision and completeness of the earthquake catalogue compiled by the Spanish National Geographic Institute. Over 100,000 earthquakes are included in this database, occurred in a region embracing Spain, Portugal, Morocco, Andorra and parts of France and Algeria. The catalogue has improved along time, thanks to the development of the seismic network and the upgrades of the routine data acquisition and analysis. The location precision is found to be much better on the Iberian Peninsula than offshore and benefitted especially from the implementation of modern automatic procedures for hypocentral determinations. The different magnitude scales reported in the catalogue, and effects of their changes, are reviewed. In the Iberian Peninsula, Canary Islands and surroundings, detailed successive maps of magnitude of completeness show an overall improvement over the last decades, particularly sudden when the digital broadband network was deployed. Earthquakes are found to be more frequently recorded during nights and weekends, thanks to the lower artificial noise. Despite most blasts have been filtered out of the catalogue, examples of remaining ones are identified by their spatial clustering around mines and quarries, and their timing at the intervals at which blasts are set off (even at night, in contrast to the common assumption that they only occur during daytime). This work highlights the importance of unveiling the spatial and temporal heterogeneities of earthquake catalogues and aims to help future analyses of the seismicity in the region.     

国际热核反应堆合作计划(ITER)中的地震问题

简要回顾了国际ITER项目厂址选择中地震问题的源起，介绍了ITER项目欧盟Cadarache和日本Rokkash。厂址涉及地震安全的主要问题，各方对厂址地震危险性的评价结果，以及中国对这两个厂址地震问题的认识与评价。     

国家地震灾情调查系统探讨

本文论述了我国目前地震灾情调查的现状以及地震应急所存在的问题,通过剖析这些问题,提出了我国地震灾情调查系统的框架设计,并详细介绍了国家地震安全社会服务工程项目中已实现的地震灾情调查系统.同时,考虑到新型技术发展所带来的机遇,对国家地震灾情调查平台的手段进行了更深入的拓展讨论.     

Impact of Three-Parameter Weibull Models in Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazards

This paper investigates the suitability of a three-parameter (scale, shape, and location) Weibull distribution in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. The performance is also compared with two other popular models from same Weibull family, namely the two-parameter Weibull model and the inverse Weibull model. A complete and homogeneous earthquake catalog (Yadav et al. in Pure Appl Geophys 167:1331–1342, 2010) of 20 events (M ≥ 7.0), spanning the period 1846 to 1995 from north–east India and its surrounding region (20°–32°N and 87°–100°E), is used to perform this study. The model parameters are initially estimated from graphical plots and later confirmed from statistical estimations such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and method of moments (MoM). The asymptotic variance–covariance matrix for the MLE estimated parameters is further calculated on the basis of the Fisher information matrix (FIM). The model suitability is appraised using different statistical goodness-of-fit tests. For the study area, the estimated conditional probability for an earthquake within a decade comes out to be very high (≥0.90) for an elapsed time of 18 years (i.e., 2013). The study also reveals that the use of location parameter provides more flexibility to the three-parameter Weibull model in comparison to the two-parameter Weibull model. Therefore, it is suggested that three-parameter Weibull model has high importance in empirical modeling of earthquake recurrence and seismic hazard assessment.     

山西省地震短临预报决策方案

详细叙述了山西重点监视区地震短临的决策依据和程式，提出了重点监视区地震三要素的判别方法。这是根据《中国地震分析预报指南》、清理攻关和实用化关成果，结合山西地区近年中强地震震例和多年分析预报工作实践而制定的。