Evaluation of ASTER GDEM and SRTM and their suitability in hydraulic modelling of a glacial lake outburst flood in southeast Tibet

The resolution and accuracy of digital elevation models (DEMs) can affect the hydraulic simulation results for predicting the effects of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). However, for the Tibetan Plateau, high‐quality DEM data are often not available, leaving researchers with near‐global, freely available DEMs, such as the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Global Digital Elevation Model (ASTER GDEM) and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission data (SRTM) for hydraulic modelling. This study explores the suitability of these two freely available DEMs for hydraulic modelling of GLOFs. Our study focused on the flood plain of a potentially dangerous glacial lake in southeastern Tibet, to evaluate the elevation accuracy of ASTER GDEM and SRTM, and their suitability for hydraulic modelling of GLOFs. The elevation accuracies of ASTER GDEM and SRTM were first validated against field global position system (GPS) survey points, and then evaluated with reference to the relatively high precision of 1:50 000 scale DEM (DEM5) constructed from aerial photography. Moreover, the DEM5, ASTER GDEM and SRTM were used as basic topographic data to simulate peak discharge propagation, as well as flood inundation extent and depth in the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System one‐dimensional hydraulic model. Results of the three DEM predictions were compared to evaluate the suitability of ASTER GDEM and SRTM for GLOF hydraulic modelling. Comparisons of ASTER GDEM and SRTM each with DEM5 in the flood plain area show root‐mean‐square errors between the former two as ± 15·4 m and between the latter two as ± 13·5 m. Although SRTM overestimates and ASTER GDEM underestimates valley floor elevations, both DEMs can be used to extract the elevations of required geometric data, i.e. stream centre lines, bank lines and cross sections, for flood modelling. However, small errors still exist in the cross sections that may influence the propagation of peak discharge. The flood inundation extent and mean water depths derived from ASTER GDEM predictions are only 2·2% larger and 2·3‐m deeper than that of the DEM5 predictions, whereas the SRTM yields a flood zone extent 6·8% larger than the DEM5 prediction and a mean water depth 2·4‐m shallower than the DEM5 prediction. The modelling shows that, in the absence of high‐precision DEM data, ASTER GDEM or SRTM DEM can be relied on for simulating extreme GLOFs in southeast Tibet. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ice fracturing during jökulhlaups: implications for englacial floodwater routing and outlet development

Theoretical studies of glacial outburst floods (jökulhlaups) assume that: (i) intraglacial floodwater is transported efficiently in isolated conduits; (ii) intraglacial conduit enlargement operates proportionally to increasing discharge; (iii) floodwater exits glaciers through pre‐existing ice‐marginal outlets; and (iv) the morphology and positioning of outlets remains fixed during flooding. Direct field observations, together with historical jökulhlaup accounts, confirm that these theoretical assumptions are not always correct. This paper presents new evidence for spatial and temporal changes in intraglacial floodwater routing during jökulhlaups; secondly, it identifies and explains the mechanisms controlling the position and morphology of supraglacial jökulhlaup outlets; and finally, it presents a conceptual model of the controls on supraglacial outbursts. Field observations are presented from two Icelandic glaciers, Skeiðarárjökull and Sólheimajökull. Video footage and aerial photographs, taken before, during and after the Skeiðarárjökull jökulhlaup and immediately after the Sólheimajökull jökulhlaup, reveal changes in floodwater routing and the positioning and morphology of outlets. Field observations confirm that glaciers cannot transmit floodwater as efficiently as previously assumed. Rapid increases in jökulhlaup discharge generate basal hydraulic pressures in excess of ice overburden. Under these circumstances, floodwater can be forced through the surface of glaciers, leading to the development of a range of supraglacial outlets. The rate of increase in hydraulic pressure strongly influences the type of supraglacial outlet that can develop. Steady increases in basal hydraulic pressure can retro‐feed pre‐existing englacial drainage, whereas transient increases in pressure can generate hydraulic fracturing. The position and morphology of supraglacial outlets provide important controls on the spatial and temporal impact of flooding. The development of supraglacial jökulhlaup outlets provides a new mechanism for rapid englacial debris entrainment. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pro‐glacial lake sedimentation from jökulhlaups (GLOF), Blåmannsisen,northern Norway

Outburst floods from glacier‐dammed lakes are major events associated with glacier thinning and volume reduction. This paper investigates jökulhlaups emanating from the glacier‐dammed lake Øvre Messingmalmvatn at Rundvassbreen, an outlet glacier of the Blåmannsisen ice cap in northern Norway. Since 2001, the lake has several times been observed to drain suddenly, causing jökulhlaup outbursts into the pro‐glacial lake Rundvatnet. Varve analysis and lead‐210 (²¹⁰Pb) dating were used to date sediment cores taken from Rundvatnet. It was found that sedimentation from jökulhlaups is recognizable in the lake as distinct sand layers embedded in the varved silt‐clay sequence which represents the normal lake sedimentation. Sand fractions were carried in suspension because of the extreme hydraulic conditions of jökulhlaups. The thickest sand layer was deposited during the 2001 jökulhlaup which lasted three days and had a total volume of 40 ×10⁶ m³. Jökulhlaups were also recorded in 2005, 2007, 2009, and 2010; they each resulted in a sand layer. Annual sediment accumulation in Rundvatnet increased up to 10‐fold during the years with jökulhlaup outburst floods, from a normal value of 1–2 mm yr^?1 to 8–10 mm yr^?1. Five other jökulhlaups were identified from the 1910–1930 sedimentation interval, in addition to those observed in 2001–2010; there appear to have been none for 70 years during 1931–2000. Each jökulhlaup was preceded by a period when the glacier thinned to a critical volume and could no longer withstand the hydrostatic pressure of Øvre Messingmalmvatn; consequently a tunnel developed beneath the glacier, leading to a jökulhlaup. Statistical analyses of the correlations between the pro‐glacial sedimentation rate and temperature and precipitation suggested that although climate conditions are expected to influence sedimentation in the pro‐glacial catchment, a host of other interacting factors moderate the availability and delivery of sediment to the pro‐glacial system, making the processes responsible for changes in pro‐glacial sedimentation to remain uncertain. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the influence of the Merzbacher Lake outburst floods on discharge using the hydrological model SWIM in the Aksu headwaters,Kyrgyzstan/NW China

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) often have a significant impact on downstream users. Including their effects in hydrological models, identifying past occurrences and assessing their potential impacts are challenges for hydrologists working in mountainous catchments. The regularly outbursting Merzbacher Lake is located in the headwaters of the Aksu River, the most important source of water discharge to the Tarim River, northwest China. Modelling its water resources and the evaluation of potential climate change impacts on river discharge are indispensable for projecting future water availability for the intensively cultivated river oases downstream of the Merzbacher Lake and along the Tarim River. The semi‐distributed hydrological model SWIM was calibrated to the outlet station Xiehela on the Kumarik River, by discharge the largest tributary to the Aksu River. The glacial lake outburst floods add to the difficulties of modelling this high‐mountain, heavily glaciated catchment with poor data coverage and quality. The aims of the study are to investigate the glacier lake outburst floods using a modelling tool. Results include a two‐step model calibration of the Kumarik catchment, an approach for the identification of the outburst floods using the measured gauge data and the modelling results and estimations of the outburst flood volumes. Results show that a catchment model can inform GLOF investigations by providing ‘normal’ (i.e. without the outburst floods) catchment discharge. The comparison of the simulated and observed discharge proves the occurrence of GLOFs and highlights the influences of the GLOFs on the downstream water balance. © 2013 The Authors. Hydrological Processes Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Controls on englacial sediment deposition during the November 1996 jökulhlaup,Skeiđarárjökull,Iceland

This paper presents sedimentary evidence for rapid englacial debris entrainment during jökulhlaups. Previous studies of jökulhlaup sedimentology have focused predominantly on proglacial impact, rather than depositional processes within glaciers. However, observations of supraglacial floodwater outbursts suggest that englacial sediment emplacement is possible during jökulhlaups. The November 1996 jökulhlaup from Skei?arárjökull, Iceland presented one of the first opportunities to examine englacial flood deposits in relation to former supraglacial outlets. Using observations from Skei?arárjökull, this paper identifies and explains controls on the deposition of englacial flood sediments and presents a qualitative model for englacial jökulhlaup deposition. Englacial jökulhlaup deposits were contained within complex networks of upglacier‐dipping fractures. Simultaneous englacial deposition of fines and boulder‐sized sediment demonstrates that englacial fracture discharge had a high transport capacity. Fracture geometry was an important control on the architecture of englacial jökulhlaup deposits. The occurrence of pervasively frozen flood deposits within Skei?arárjökull is attributed to freeze‐on by glaciohydraulic supercooling. Floodwater, flowing subglacially or through upglacier‐dipping fractures, would have supercooled as it was raised to the surface faster than its pressure‐melting point could increase as glaciostatic pressure decreased. Evidence for floodwater contact with the glacier bed is supported by the ubiquitous occurrence of sheared diamict rip‐ups and intra‐clasts of basal ice within jökulhlaup fractures, deposited englacially some 200–350 m above the bed of Skei?arárjökull. Evidence for fluidal supercooled sediment accretion is apparent within stratified sands, deposited englacially at exceptionally high angles of rest in the absence of post‐depositional disturbance. Such primary sediment structures cannot be explained unless sediment is progressively accreted to opposing fracture walls. Ice retreat from areas of former supraglacial outbursts revealed distinct ridges characterized by localized upwellings of sediment‐rich floodwater. These deposits are an important addition to current models of englacial sedimentation and demonstrate the potential for post‐jökulhlaup landform development. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to channel erosion uncertainty during extreme flooding

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilize the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross‐section geometry and channel long‐profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D–2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD‐FP) of the ~1 : 2000 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of simulated scenarios of channel erosional changes were constructed on the basis of a simple velocity‐based model of critical entrainment. A Monte‐Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of this channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected an approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion that enveloped observed erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long‐profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude of event modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead, morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel‐bed rivers such as the one used in this research. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparing Beerkan infiltration tests with rainfall simulation experiments for hydraulic characterization of a sandy‐loam soil

Saturated soil hydraulic conductivity, K _s , data collected by ponding infiltrometer methods and usual experimental procedures could be unusable for interpreting field hydrological processes and particularly rainfall infiltration. The K _s values determined by an infiltrometer experiment carried out by applying water at a relatively large distance from the soil surface could however be more appropriate to explain surface runoff generation phenomena during intense rainfall events. In this study, a link between rainfall simulation and ponding infiltrometer experiments was established for a sandy‐loam soil. The height of water pouring for the infiltrometer run was chosen, establishing a similarity between the gravitational potential energy of the applied water, E _p , and the rainfall kinetic energy, E _k . To test the soundness of this procedure, the soil was sampled with the Beerkan estimation of soil transfer parameters procedure of soil hydraulic characterization and two heights of water pouring (0.03 m, i.e., usual procedure, and 0.34 m, yielding E _p  = E _k ). Then, a comparison between experimental steady‐state infiltration rates, i _sR , measured with rainfall simulation experiments determining runoff production and K _s values for the two water pouring heights was carried out in order to discriminate between theoretically possible (i _sR  ≥ K _s ) and impossible (i _sR  < K _s ) situations. Physically possible K _s values were only obtained by applying water at a relatively large distance from the soil surface, because i _sR was equal to 20.0 mm h^?1 and K _s values were 146.2–163.9 and 15.2–18.7 mm h^?1 for a height of water pouring of 0.03 and 0.34 m, respectively. This result suggested the consistency between Beerkan runs with a high height of water pouring and rainfall simulator experiments. Soil compaction and mechanical aggregate breakdown were the most plausible physical mechanisms determining reduction of K _s with height. This study demonstrated that the height from which water is poured onto the soil surface is a key parameter in infiltrometer experiments and can be adapted to mimic the effect of high intensity rain on soil hydraulic properties.     

Estimation of uncertainty propagation in flood inundation mapping using a 1‐D hydraulic model

A need for more accurate flood inundation maps has recently arisen because of the increasing frequency and extremity of flood events. The accuracy of flood inundation maps is determined by the uncertainty propagated from all of the variables involved in the overall process of flood inundation modelling. Despite our advanced understanding of flood progression, it is impossible to eliminate the uncertainty because of the constraints involving cost, time, knowledge, and technology. Nevertheless, uncertainty analysis in flood inundation mapping can provide useful information for flood risk management. The twin objectives of this study were firstly to estimate the propagated uncertainty rates of key variables in flood inundation mapping by using the first‐order approximation method and secondly to evaluate the relative sensitivities of the model variables by using the Hornberger–Spear–Young (HSY) method. Monte Carlo simulations using the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System and triangle‐based interpolation were performed to investigate the uncertainty arising from discharge, topography, and Manning's n in the East Fork of the White River near Seymour, Indiana, and in Strouds Creek in Orange County, North Carolina. We found that the uncertainty of a single variable is propagated differently to the flood inundation area depending on the effects of other variables in the overall process. The uncertainty was linearly/nonlinearly propagated corresponding to valley shapes of the reaches. In addition, the HSY sensitivity analysis revealed the topography of Seymour reach and the discharge of Strouds Creek to be major contributors to the change of flood inundation area. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparing the performance of a 2‐D finite element and a 2‐D finite volume model of floodplain inundation using airborne SAR imagery

The performances of a finite volume model (SFV) and finite element model (TELEMAC‐2D) in reproducing inundation on a 16 km reach of the river Severn, United Kingdom, are compared. Predicted inundation extents are compared with 4 airborne synthetic aperture radar images of a major flood event in November 2000, and these are used to calibrate 2 values of Manning's n for the channel and floodplain. The four images are shown to have different capacities to constrain roughness parameters, with the image acquired at low flow rate doing better in determining these parameters than the image acquired at approximately peak flow. This is assigned to the valley filling nature of the flood and the associated insensitivity of flood extent to changes in water level. The level of skill demonstrated by the models, when compared with inundation derived using a horizontal water free surface, also increases as flow rate drops. The two models show markedly different behaviours to the calibration process, with TELEMAC showing less sensitivity and lower optimum values for Manning's n than SFV. When the models are used in predictive mode, calibrated against one image and predicting another, SFV performs better than TELEMAC. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparing 1D and combined 1D/2D hydraulic simulations using high-resolution topographic data: a case study of the Koiliaris basin,Greece

The development of high spatial resolution digital elevation models takes place via the use of GeoEye-1 stereo-pair imagery, providing highly accurate geometrical representations of complex riverine systems. The combination of geographic information systems with hydraulic models facilitates the exploitation of satellite topographic information throughout the cross-section extraction process. One-dimensional HEC-RAS and combined 1D/2D HEC-RAS models are adjusted by making use of the resulting high-resolution input. Several hydraulic simulations are effectuated in order to test how significantly DEM resolution affects hydraulic modelling results, with regard also to the model dimensionality. The ability of the combined 1D/2D model, based mainly on the high-accuracy input data, provides an accurate estimate of the flood hazard area. Flood-prone areas could take advantage of high-accuracy results and facilitate the effective management of extreme events and sufficient decision making.     

Hydraulic parameter estimations of a 2D model validated with sedimentological findings in the point bar environment

There have been a number of flume tests of flow round bends with idealized geometry and recently hydraulic simulations of such experiment. However, studies of hydraulic models in natural river bend are rather limited because of greater complexity of the flow characteristics and lack of detailed data. In this article, we study how 2D hydraulic model and raster‐based hydraulic parameter calculations predict flow characteristics on the natural point bar environment. We will compare calculations of various hydraulic parameters (velocity, bed shear stress and stream power) by the 2D model and the associated sedimentology of the point bars. As a result of comparison, the usability of the 2D model for flow‐form‐product relationship predictions will be evaluated in natural river bend environment. The study shows that the 2D model can be generally utilized to predict the flood‐generated flow‐form‐product relationship in coarse‐grained and structurally complex point bar environments with sand‐dominated bedload. For example, point bar sections submerged in water depths greater than 50 cm showed a relatively good match laterally between the model and sedimentological estimations. Furthermore, this approach allows us to estimate flood processes on a local scale in similar point bar environments with width–length ratio. The flow direction estimates of the 2D model coincided relatively well with the sedimentological estimations on the bar head. However, flow directions on the downstream section could not be modelled because the 2D model cannot handle the helicoidal flow of the river bend. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reconstructing the early 19th‐century Waal River by means of a 2D physics‐based numerical model

Suspended‐sediment concentration data are a missing link in reconstructions of the River Waal in the early 1800s. These reconstructions serve as a basis for assessing the long‐term effects of major interventions carried out between 1850 AD and the early 20th century. We used a 2D physics‐based morphodynamic model accounting for the influence of floodplain vegetation to fill in this gap. Historical discharge hydrographs were derived from a correlation between flow discharge records at Cologne and water level measurements of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands, taking into account the discharge distribution between the branches. Historical floodplain sedimentation rates were estimated using old cartographic information and recent geomorphologic field work. The computed historical sedimentation rates are found to be within the range of measured data, which suggests that fine suspended sediment concentrations in the early 1800s were comparable to contemporary ones. The computations show also how vegetation enhances the formation of natural levees close to the main channel and at the same time decreases the sedimentation rates in farther areas of the floodplain. A sensitivity analysis shows suspended sediment composition to have a strong influence on the resulting quantities and patterns of floodplain deposition. The reconstruction has also provided validation of the modelling tools to reproduce the effects of vegetation on sediment dynamics, enabling their implementation to study other cases. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A model approach for in- and outflow calculation of upper lake constance: —An investigation of a 60 year time span and observations about the flood of 1999

The revised empirical model for in- and outflow calculation of Upper Lake Constance has provided satisfying results supported by measured values. The given model was implemented to simulate total water inputs of the lake during the period from 1941 to 2000 with emphasis on the flood conditions of 1999. Analysis of annual water input development reveals a tendency toward slight increases until the 1960s. Thereafter, a reduction in inputs can be noted. This trend probably continues to hold true to present. Weather conditions of given individual years have caused distinct fluctuations to the water budget.Unusual meteorological conditions led to extreme flooding in early May of 1999. Daily water inputs of up to 200 mio m³ generated the highest water levels ever observed for this time of the year. Continual extraordinarily high water inputs occurring from February until July and then again from September until the end of 1999 resulted in the second largest annual total water input recorded since 1941.     

A modelling framework for evaluation of the hydrological impacts of nature‐based approaches to flood risk management,with application to in‐channel interventions across a 29‐km2 scale catchment in the United Kingdom

Nature‐based approaches to flood risk management are increasing in popularity. Evidence for the effectiveness at the catchment scale of such spatially distributed upstream measures is inconclusive. However, it also remains an open question whether, under certain conditions, the individual impacts of a collection of flood mitigation interventions could combine to produce a detrimental effect on runoff response. A modelling framework is presented for evaluation of the impacts of hillslope and in‐channel natural flood management interventions. It couples an existing semidistributed hydrological model with a new, spatially explicit, hydraulic channel network routing model. The model is applied to assess a potential flood mitigation scheme in an agricultural catchment in North Yorkshire, United Kingdom, comprising various configurations of a single variety of in‐channel feature. The hydrological model is used to generate subsurface and surface fluxes for a flood event in 2012. The network routing model is then applied to evaluate the response to the addition of up to 59 features. Additional channel and floodplain storage of approximately 70,000 m³ is seen with a reduction of around 11% in peak discharge. Although this might be sufficient to reduce flooding in moderate events, it is inadequate to prevent flooding in the double‐peaked storm of the magnitude that caused damage within the catchment in 2012. Some strategies using features specific to this catchment are suggested in order to improve the attenuation that could be achieved by applying a nature‐based approach.