An upland soil erosion model derived from the basic principles

Starting from the basic erosion principles, an upland soil erosion model to predict soil loss by overland flow from individual storms on forested hillslopes can be derived in the form where Q_s is total soil loss for a storm event, n is roughness coefficient, x is down slope distance, K_f is soil erodibility factor, S is slope, α is slope exponent and Q is runoff. Values of n and α are to be determined for different environments and are 0·58 and 2·1 for a mixed pine forest ecosystem. A significant correlation (r = 0·933, n = 96) fits between the observed and predicted values using this expression, and the model fitting is good.     

The effect of conservation tillage on runoff erosivity and soil erodibility during concentrated flow

Crop residues in conservation tillage systems are known to cause both a reduction in the erosive runoff power and an increase in the topsoil erosion resistance. In this study, the relative importance of both mechanisms in reducing soil loss by concentrated flow erosion is examined. Therefore, a method to calculate the effective flow shear stress responsible for soil detachment in the presence of a residue cover is applied. The determination of effective flow shear stress is based on the recalculation of the hydraulic radius for residue treatments. The method was tested in a laboratory flume by comparing soil detachment rates of identical pairs of soil samples that only differ in the presence or absence of crop residues. This shear stress partitioning approach and a soil detachment correction were then applied to a dataset of soil detachment measurements on undisturbed topsoil samples from a no‐till field plot on a loess‐derived soil, sampled during one growing season. Results indicate that only a small fraction (10% on average) of the difference in soil detachment rate between conventional and conservation tillage can be attributed to the dissipation of shear forces on the residues. The remaining decrease in soil detachment during concentrated runoff after a two‐year application of conservation tillage can be explained by the increased dry bulk density and root and crop residue content in the topsoil that reduces soil erodibility. After correcting for the presence of residues, the temporal variability in soil detachment rates (D_r) during concentrated flow for a given flow shear stress (τ) for both treatments can be predicted fairly well (R² = 0·87) from dry soil bulk density (DBD, representing consolidation effects), soil moisture content (SMC, representing antecedent rainfall conditions), the dry mass of organic material (OM, representing root growth and residue decomposition) and saturated soil shear strength σ_{s, sat} using an equation of the form: This study is the first to show that the effect of conservation tillage on soil detachment rates is a result of soil property modifications affecting soil erodibility, rather than a result of the surface residue decreasing flow erosivity. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Linking runoff response to burn severity after a wildfire

Extreme floods often follow wildfire in mountainous watersheds. However, a quantitative relation between the runoff response and burn severity at the watershed scale has not been established. Runoff response was measured as the runoff coefficient C, which is equal to the peak discharge per unit drainage area divided by the average maximum 30 min rainfall intensity during each rain storm. The magnitude of the burn severity was expressed as the change in the normalized burn ratio. A new burn severity variable, hydraulic functional connectivity Φ was developed and incorporates both the magnitude of the burn severity and the spatial sequence of the burn severity along hillslope flow paths. The runoff response and the burn severity were measured in seven subwatersheds (0·24 to 0·85 km²) in the upper part of Rendija Canyon burned by the 2000 Cerro Grande Fire near Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA. A rainfall–discharge relation was determined for four of the subwatersheds with nearly the same burn severity. The peak discharge per unit drainage area was a linear function of the maximum 30 min rainfall intensity I₃₀. This function predicted a rainfall intensity threshold of 8·5 mm h^?1 below which no runoff was generated. The runoff coefficient was a linear function of the mean hydraulic functional connectivity of the subwatersheds. Moreover, the variability of the mean hydraulic functional connectivity was related to the variability of the mean runoff coefficient, and this relation provides physical insight into why the runoff response from the same subwatershed can vary for different rainstorms with the same rainfall intensity. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Daily streamflow modelling and assessment based on the curve‐number technique

A cell‐based long‐term hydrological model (CELTHYM) that can be integrated with a geographical information system (GIS) was developed to predict continuous stream flow from small agricultural watersheds. The CELTHYM uses a cell‐by‐cell soil moisture balance approach. For surface runoff estimation, the curve number technique considering soil moisture on a daily basis was used, and release rate was used to estimate baseflow. Evapotranspiration was computed using the FAO modified Penman equation that considered land‐use‐based crop coefficients, soil moisture and the influence of topography on radiation. A rice paddy field water budget model was also adapted for the specific application of the model to East Asia. Model sensitivity analysis was conducted to obtain operational information about the model calibration parameters. The CELTHYM was calibrated and verified with measured runoff data from the WS#1 and WS#3 watersheds of the Seoul National University, Department of Agricultural Engineering, in Hwaseong County, Kyounggi Province, South Korea. The WS#1 watershed is comprised of about 35·4% rice paddy fields and 42·3% forest, whereas the WS#3 watershed is about 85·0% forest and 11·5% rice paddy fields. The CELTHYM was calibrated for the parameter release rate, K, and soil moisture storage coefficient, STC, and results were compared with the measured runoff data for 1986. The validation results for WS#1 considering all daily stream flow were poor with R², E² and RMSE having values of 0·40, ?6·63 and 9·69 (mm), respectively, but validation results for days without rainfall were statistically significant (R² = 0·66). Results for WS#3 showed good agreement with observed data for all days, and R², E² and RMSE were 0·92, 0·91 and 2·23 (mm), respectively, suggesting potential for CELTHYM application to other watersheds. The direct runoff and water balance components for watershed WS#1 with significant areas of paddy fields did not perform well, suggesting that additional study of these components is needed. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A GIS‐based variable source area hydrology model

Effective control of nonpoint source pollution from contaminants transported by runoff requires information about the source areas of surface runoff. Variable source hydrology is widely recognized by hydrologists, yet few methods exist for identifying the saturated areas that generate most runoff in humid regions. The Soil Moisture Routing model is a daily water balance model that simulates the hydrology for watersheds with shallow sloping soils. The model combines elevation, soil, and land use data within the geographic information system GRASS, and predicts the spatial distribution of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, saturation‐excess overland flow (i.e., surface runoff), and interflow throughout a watershed. The model was applied to a 170 hectare watershed in the Catskills region of New York State and observed stream flow hydrographs and soil moisture measurements were compared to model predictions. Stream flow prediction during non‐winter periods generally agreed with measured flow resulting in an average r² of 0·73, a standard error of 0·01 m³/s, and an average Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency R² of 0·62. Soil moisture predictions showed trends similar to observations with errors on the order of the standard error of measurements. The model results were most accurate for non‐winter conditions. The model is currently used for making management decisions for reducing non‐point source pollution from manure spread fields in the Catskill watersheds which supply New York City's drinking water. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of a dynamic multi‐class sediment transport model in a catchment under soil‐conservation agriculture

Soil erosion models are essential tools for the successful implementation of effective and adapted soil conservation measures on agricultural land. Therefore, models are needed that predict sediment delivery and quality, give a good spatial representation of erosion and deposition and allow us to account for various soil conservation measures. Here, we evaluate how well a modified version of the spatially distributed multi‐class sediment transport model (MCST) simulates the effectiveness of control measures for different event sizes. We use 8 year runoff and sediment delivery data from two small agricultural watersheds (0·7 and 3·7 ha) under optimized soil conservation. The modified MCST model successfully simulates surface runoff and sediment delivery from both watersheds; one of which was dominated by sheet and the other was partly affected by rill erosion. Moreover, first results of modelling enrichment of clay in sediment delivery are promising, showing the potential of MCST to model sediment enrichment and nutrient transport. In general, our results and those of an earlier modelling exercise in the Belgian Loess Belt indicate the potential of the MCST model to evaluate soil erosion and deposition under different agricultural land uses. As the model explicitly takes into account the dominant effects of soil‐conservation agriculture, it should be successfully applicable for soil‐conservation planning/evaluation in other environments. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of AnnAGNPS and SWAT model simulation results in USDA‐CEAP agricultural watersheds in south‐central Kansas

This study was conducted under the USDA‐Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) in the Cheney Lake watershed in south‐central Kansas. The Cheney Lake watershed has been identified as ‘impaired waters’ under Section 303(d) of the Federal Clean Water Act for sediments and total phosphorus. The USDA‐CEAP seeks to quantify environmental benefits of conservation programmes on water quality by monitoring and modelling. Two of the most widely used USDA watershed‐scale models are Annualized AGricultural Non‐Point Source (AnnAGNPS) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The objectives of this study were to compare hydrology, sediment, and total phosphorus simulation results from AnnAGNPS and SWAT in separate calibration and validation watersheds. Models were calibrated in Red Rock Creek watershed and validated in Goose Creek watershed, both sub‐watersheds of the Cheney Lake watershed. Forty‐five months (January 1997 to September 2000) of monthly measured flow and water quality data were used to evaluate the two models. Both models generally provided from fair to very good correlation and model efficiency for simulating surface runoff and sediment yield during calibration and validation (correlation coefficient; R², from 0·50 to 0·89, Nash Sutcliffe efficiency index, E, from 0·47 to 0·73, root mean square error, RMSE, from 0·25 to 0·45 m³ s^?1 for flow, from 158 to 312 Mg for sediment yield). Total phosphorus predictions from calibration and validation of SWAT indicated good correlation and model efficiency (R² from 0·60 to 0·70, E from 0·63 to 0·68) while total phosphorus predictions from validation of AnnAGNPS were from unsatisfactory to very good (R² from 0·60 to 0·77, E from ? 2·38 to 0·32). The root mean square error–observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) was estimated as excellent (from 0·08 to 0·25) for the all model simulated parameters during the calibration and validation study. The percentage bias (PBIAS) of the model simulated parameters varied from unsatisfactory to excellent (from 128 to 3). This study determined SWAT to be the most appropriate model for this watershed based on calibration and validation results. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Enhancing RUSLE to include runoff‐driven phenomena

RUSLE2 (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) is the most recent in the family of Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE)/RUSLE/RUSLE2 models proven to provide robust estimates of average annual sheet and rill erosion from a wide range of land use, soil, and climatic conditions. RUSLE2's capabilities have been expanded over earlier versions using methods of estimating time‐varying runoff and process‐based sediment transport routines so that it can estimate sediment transport/deposition/delivery on complex hillslopes. In this report we propose and evaluate a method of predicting a series of representative runoff events whose sizes, durations, and timings are estimated from information already in the RUSLE2 database. The methods were derived from analysis of 30‐year simulations using a widely accepted climate generator and runoff model and were validated against additional independent simulations not used in developing the index events, as well as against long‐term measured monthly rainfall/runoff sets. Comparison of measured and RUSLE2‐predicted monthly runoff suggested that the procedures outlined may underestimate plot‐scale runoff during periods of the year with greater than average rainfall intensity, and a modification to improve predictions was developed. In order to illustrate the potential of coupling RUSLE2 with a process‐based channel erosion model, the resulting set of representative storms was used as an input to the channel routines used in Chemicals, Runoff, and Erosion from Agricultural Management Systems (CREAMS) to calculate ephemeral gully erosion. The method was applied to a hypothetical 5‐ha field cropped to cotton in Marshall County, MS, bisected by a potential ephemeral gully having channel slopes ranging from 0·5 to 5% and with hillslopes on both sides of the channel with 5% steepness and 22·1 m length. Results showed the representative storm sequence produced reasonable results in CREAMS indicating that ephemeral gully erosion may be of the same order of magnitude as sheet and rill erosion. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Controls of surface soil moisture spatial patterns and their temporal stability in a semi‐arid steppe

Temporal stability of soil moisture spatial patterns has important implications for optimal soil and water management and effective field monitoring. The aim of this study was to investigate the temporal stability of soil moisture spatial patterns over four plots of 105 m × 135 m in grid size with different grazing intensities in a semi‐arid steppe in China. We also examined whether a time‐stable location can be identified from causative factors (i.e. soil, vegetation, and topography). At each plot, surface soil moisture (0–6 cm) was measured about biweekly from 2004 to 2006 using 100 points in each grid. Possible controls of soil moisture, including soil texture, organic carbon, bulk density, vegetation coverage, and topographic indices, were determined at the same grid points. The results showed that the spatial patterns of soil moisture were considerably stable over the 3‐y monitoring period. Soil moisture under wet conditions (averaged volumetric moisture contents > 20%) was more stable than that under dry ( ) or moist ( ) conditions. The best representative point for the whole field identified in each plot was accurate in representing the field mean moisture over time (R² ≥ 0·97; p < 0·0001). The degree of temporal persistence varied with grazing intensity, which was partly related to grazing‐induced differences in soil and vegetation properties. The correlation analysis showed that soil properties, and to a lesser extent vegetation and topographic properties, were important in controlling the temporal stability of soil moisture spatial patterns in this relatively flat grassland. Response surface regression analysis was used to quantitatively identify representative monitoring locations a priori from available soil‐plant parameters. This allows appropriate selection of monitoring locations and enhances efficiency in managing soil and water resources in semi‐arid environments. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of soil moisture data and curve number method for estimating runoff in the Loess Plateau of China

The Soil Conservation Service curve number (CN) method commonly uses three discrete levels of soil antecedent moisture condition (AMC), defined by the 5‐day antecedent rainfall depth, to describe soil moisture prior to a runoff event. However, this way may not adequately represent soil water conditions of fields and watersheds in the Loess Plateau of China. The objectives of this study were: (1) to determine the effective soil moisture depth to which the CN is most related; (2) to evaluate a discrete and a linear relationship between AMC and soil moisture; and (3) to develop an equation between CN and soil moisture to predict runoff better for the climatic and soil conditions of the Loess Plateau of China. The dataset consisted of 10 years of rainfall, runoff and soil moisture measurements from four experimental plots cropped with millet, pasture and potatoes. Results indicate that the standard CN method underestimated runoff depths for 85 of the 98 observed plot‐runoff events, with a model efficiency E of only 0·243. For our experimental conditions, the discrete and linear approaches improved runoff estimation, but still underestimated most runoff events, with E values of 0·428 and 0·445 respectively. Based on the measured CN values and soil moisture values in the top 15 cm of the soil, a non‐linear equation was developed that predicted runoff better with an E value of 0·779. This modified CN equation was the most appropriate for runoff prediction in the study area, but may need adjustments for local conditions in the Loess Plateau of China. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulating daily soil water under foothills fescue grazing with the soil and water assessment tool model (Alberta,Canada)

Grazing is common in the foothills fescue grasslands and may influence the seasonal soil‐water patterns, which in turn determine range productivity. Hydrological modelling using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) is becoming widely adopted throughout North America especially for simulation of stream flow and runoff in small and large basins. Although applications of the SWAT model have been wide, little attention has been paid to the model's ability to simulate soil‐water patterns in small watersheds. Thus a daily profile of soil water was simulated with SWAT using data collected from the Stavely Range Sub‐station in the foothills of south‐western Alberta, Canada. Three small watersheds were established using a combination of natural and artificial barriers in 1996–97. The watersheds were subjected to no grazing (control), heavy grazing (2·4 animal unit months (AUM) per hectare) or very heavy grazing (4·8 AUM ha^?1). Soil‐water measurements were conducted at four slope positions within each watershed (upper, middle, lower and 5 m close to the collector drain), every 2 weeks annually from 1998 to 2000 using a downhole CPN 503 neutron moisture meter. Calibration of the model was conducted using 1998 soil‐water data and resulted in Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (EF or R²) and regression coefficient of determination (r²) values of 0·77 and 0·85, respectively. Model graphical and statistical evaluation was conducted using the soil‐water data collected in 1999 and 2000. During the evaluation period, soil water was simulated reasonably with an overall EF of 0·70, r² of 0·72 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 18·01. The model had a general tendency to overpredict soil water under relatively dry soil conditions, but to underpredict soil water under wet conditions. Sensitivity analysis indicated that absolute relative sensitivity indices of input parameters in soil‐water simulation were in the following order; available water capacity > bulk density > runoff curve number > fraction of field capacity (FFCB) > saturated hydraulic conductivity. Thus these data were critical inputs to ensure reasonable simulation of soil‐water patterns. Overall, the model performed satisfactorily in simulating soil‐water patterns in all three watersheds with a daily time‐step and indicates a great potential for monitoring soil‐water resources in small watersheds. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The influence of fire and permafrost on sub‐arctic stream chemistry during storms

Permafrost and fire are important regulators of hydrochemistry and landscape structure in the discontinuous permafrost region of interior Alaska. We examined the influence of permafrost and a prescribed burn on concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) and other solutes ( , Ca²⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺) in streams of an experimentally burned watershed and two reference watersheds with varying extents of permafrost in the Caribou–Poker Creeks Research Watershed in interior Alaska. The low‐permafrost watershed has limited permafrost (3%), the high‐permafrost watershed has extensive permafrost (53%), and the burn watershed has intermediate permafrost coverage (18%). A three end‐member mixing model revealed fundamental hydrologic and chemical differences between watersheds due to the presence of permafrost. Stormflow in the low‐permafrost watershed was dominated by precipitation and overland flow, whereas the high‐permafrost watershed was dominated by flow through the active layer. In all watersheds, organic and groundwater flow paths controlled stream chemistry: DOC and DON increased with discharge (organic source) and base cations and (from weathering processes) decreased. Thawing of the active layer increased soil water storage in the high‐permafrost watershed from July to September, and attenuated the hydrologic response and solute flux to the stream. The FROSTFIRE prescribed burn, initiated on 8 July 1999, elevated nitrate concentrations for a short period after the first post‐fire storm on 25 July, but there was no increase after a second storm in September. During the July storm, nitrate export lagged behind the storm discharge peak, indicating a flushing of soluble nitrate that likely originated from burned soils. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using GIS and a digital elevation model to assess the effectiveness of variable grade flow diversion terraces in reducing soil erosion in northwestern New Brunswick,Canada

Flow diversion terraces (FDT) are commonly used beneficial management practice (BMP) for soil conservation on sloped terrain susceptible to water erosion. A simple GIS‐based soil erosion model was designed to assess the effectiveness of the FDT system under different climatic, topographic, and soil conditions at a sub‐basin level. The model was used to estimate the soil conservation support practice factor (P‐factor), which inherently considered two major outcomes with its implementation, namely (1) reduced slope length, and (2) sediment deposition in terraced channels. A benchmark site, the agriculture‐dominated watershed in northwestern New Brunswick (NB), was selected to test the performance of the model and estimated P‐factors. The estimated P‐factors ranged from 0·38–1·0 for soil conservation planning objectives and ranged from 0·001 to 0·45 in sediment yield calculations for water‐quality assessment. The model estimated that the average annual sediment yield was 773 kg ha^?1 yr ^?1 compared with a measured value of 641 kg ha^?1 yr^?1. The P‐factors estimated in this study were comparable with predicted values obtained with the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE2). The P‐factors from this study have the potential to be directly used as input in hydrological models, such as the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), or in soil conservation planning where only conventional digital elevation models (DEMs) are available. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Factors controlling nitrogen release from two forested catchments with contrasting hydrochemical responses

Quantifying biogeochemical cycles of nitrogen (N) and the associated fluxes to surface waters remains challenging, given the need to deal with spatial and temporal variability and to characterize complex and heterogeneous landscapes. We focused our study on catchments S14 and S15 located in the Adirondack Mountains of New York, USA, which have similar topographic and hydrologic characteristics but contrasting stream nitrate ( ) concentrations. We characterized the mechanisms by which reaches the streams during hydrological events in these catchments, aiming to reconcile our field data with our conceptual model of factors that regulate nutrient exports from forested catchments. Combined hydrometric, chemical and isotopic (δ ) data showed that the relative contributions of both soil and ground water sources were similar between the two catchments. Temporal patterns of stream chemistry were markedly different between S14 and S15, however, because the water sources in the two catchments have different solute concentrations. During late summer/fall, the largest source of in S14 was till groundwater, whereas shallow soil was the largest source in S15. concentrations in surface water decreased in S14, whereas they increased in S15 because an increasing proportion of stream flow was derived from shallow soil sources. During snowmelt, the largest sources of were in the near‐surface soil in both catchments. Concentrations of increased as stream discharge increased and usually peaked before peak discharge, when shallow soil water sources made the largest contribution to stream discharge. The timing of peaks in stream concentrations was affected by antecedent moisture conditions. By elucidating the factors that affect sources and transport of N, including differences in the soil nutrient cycling and hydrological characteristics of S14 and S15, this study contributes to the overall conceptualization of release from temperate forested catchments. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gully‐head erosion processes on a semi‐arid valley floor in Kenya: a case study into temporal variation and sediment budgeting

A three year monitoring programme of gully‐head retreat was established to assess the significance of sediment production in a drainage network that expanded rapidly by gully‐head erosion on the low‐angled alluvio‐lacustrine Njemps Flats in semi‐arid Baringo District, Kenya. This paper discusses the factors controlling the large observed spatial and temporal variation in gully‐head retreat rates, ranging from 0 to 15 m a^?1. The selected gullies differed in planform and in runoff‐contributing catchment area but soil material and land use were similar. The data were analysed at event and annual timescales. The results show that at annual timescale rainfall amount appears to be a good indicator of gully‐head retreat, while at storm‐event timescale rainfall distribution has to be taken into account. A model is proposed, including only rainfall (P) and the number of dry days (DD) between storms: which explains 56 per cent of the variation in retreat rate of the single‐headed gully of Lam1. A detailed sediment budget has been established for Lam1 and its runoff‐contributing area (RCA). By measuring sediment input from the RCA, the sediment output by channelized flow and linear retreat of the gully head for nine storms, it can be seen that erosion shifts between different components of the budget depending on the duration of the dry period (DD) between storms. Sediment input from the RCA was usually the largest component for the smaller storms. The erosion of the gully head occurred as a direct effect of runoff falling over the edge (GH_waterfall) and of the indirect destabilization of the adjacent walls by the waterfall erosion and by saturation (GH_mass/storage). The latter component (GH_mass/storage) was usually much larger that the former (GH_waterfall). The sediment output from the gully was strongly related to the runoff volume while the linear retreat, because of its complex behaviour, was not. Overall, the results show that the annual retreat is the optimal timescale to predict retreat patterns. More detailed knowledge about relevant processes and interactions is necessary if gully‐head erosion is to be included in event‐based soil erosion models. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variability of shallow overland flow velocity and soil aggregate transport observed with digital videography

Field experiments at Tiramoana station 30 km north of Christchurch, New Zealand using an erosion plot 16·5 m long, 0·6 m wide, and with a slope of 14–14·5° on rendzina soil aimed to measure the variability of flow velocity and of soil aggregates transport rate in shallow overland flow. Discharge/cross‐section area ratio was used to estimate mean velocity, and high‐speed digital video camera and image analysis provided information about flow and sediment transport variability. Six flow runs with 0·5–3·0 L s^?1 discharges were supercritical with Froude numbers close to or more than 1. Mean flow velocity followed Poiseuille law, float numbers were more than 1·5 and hydraulic resistance was an inverse proportional function of the Reynolds number, which is typical for laminar flows. Hence actual velocity varied through time significantly and the power spectrum was of ‘red‐noise’, which is typical for turbulent flow. Sediment transport rates had even higher variability, and soil aggregates transport was a compound Poisson process. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity of runoff and soil erosion to climate change in two Mediterranean watersheds. Part II: assessing impacts from changes in storm rainfall,soil moisture and vegetation cover

The impacts of climate change on storm runoff and erosion in Mediterranean watersheds are difficult to assess due to the expected increase in storm frequency coupled with a decrease in total rainfall and soil moisture, added to positive or negative changes to different types of vegetation cover. This report, the second part of a two‐part article, addresses this issue by analysing the sensitivity of runoff and erosion to incremental degrees of change (from ? 20 to + 20%) to storm rainfall, pre‐storm soil moisture, and vegetation cover, in two Mediterranean watersheds, using the MEFIDIS model. The main results point to the high sensitivity of storm runoff and peak runoff rates to changes in storm rainfall (2·2% per 1% change) and, to a lesser degree, to soil water content (?1·2% per 1% change). Catchment sediment yield shows a greater sensitivity than within‐watershed erosion rates to both parameters: 7·8 versus 4·0% per 1% change for storm rainfall, and ? 4·9 versus ? 2·3% per 1% change for soil water content, indicating an increase in sensitivity with spatial scale due to changes to sediment connectivity within the catchment. Runoff and erosion showed a relatively low sensitivity to changes in vegetation cover. Finally, the shallow soils in one of the catchments led to a greater sensitivity to changes in storm rainfall and soil moisture. Overall, the results indicate that decreasing soil moisture levels caused by climate change could be sufficient to offset the impact of greater storm intensity in Mediterranean watersheds. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A simple concept for calibrating runoff thresholds in quasi‐distributed variable source area watershed models

Most semi‐distributed watershed water quality models divide the watershed into hydrologic response units (HRU) with no flow among them. This is problematic when watersheds are delineated to include variable source areas (VSAs) because it is the lateral flows from upslope areas to downslope areas that generate VSAs. Although hydrologic modellers have often successfully calibrated these types of models, there can still be considerable uncertainty in model results. In this paper, a topographic‐index‐based method is described and tested to distribute effective soil water holding capacity among HRUs, which can be subsequently adjusted using the watershed baseflow coefficient. The method is tested using a version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that simulates VSA runoff and is applied to two watersheds: a New York State (NYS) watershed, and one in the head waters of the Blue Nile Basin (BNB) in Ethiopia. Daily streamflow predicted using effective soil water storage capacities based only on the topographic index were reassuringly accurate in both the NYS watershed (daily Nash Sutcliffe (E) = 0·73) and in the BNB (E = 0·70). Using the baseflow coefficient to adjust the effective soil water storage capacity only slightly improved streamflow predictions in NYS (E = 0·75) but substantially improved the BNB predictions (E = 0·80). By comparison, the standard SWAT model, which uses the traditional look‐up tables to determine a runoff curve number, performed considerably less accurately in un‐calibrated form (E = 0·51 for NYS and E = 0·45 for BNB), but improved substantially when explicitly calibrated to streamflow measurements (E = 0·76 for NYS and E = 0·67 for the BNB). The calibration method presented here provides a parsimonious, systematic approach to using established models in VSA watersheds that reduces the ambiguity inherent in model calibration. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hortonian overland flow from Japanese forest plantations—an aberration,the real thing,or something in between?

There is a growing opinion that poorly managed plantation forests in Japan are contributing to increased storm runoff and erosion. Here we present evidence to the contrary from runoff plots at two scales (hillslope and 0·5 × 2 m plots) for several forest conditions in the Mie and Nariki catchments. Runoff coefficients from small plots in untended hinoki forests were variable but typically higher than from better managed or deciduous forests during small storms at Nariki; at Mie, runoff during small events was highly variable from all small plots but runoff coefficients were similar for hinoki plots with and without understory vegetation, while the deciduous plot had lower runoff coefficients. Storm runoff was less at the hillslope scale than the plot scale in Mie; these results were more evident at sites with better ground cover. During the largest storms at both sites, differences in runoff due to forest condition were not evident regardless of scale. Dynamic soil moisture tension measurements at Nariki indicated that during a large storm, flow in the upper organic‐rich and root‐permeated soil horizons was 3·2 times higher than measured overland runoff from a small hinoki plot with poor ground cover and 8·3 times higher than runoff from a deciduous forest plot. On the basis of field observations during storms, at least a portion of the monitored ‘Hortonian overland flow’ was actually occurring in this near‐surface ‘biomat’. Therefore our field measurements in both small and large plots potentially included biomat flow in addition to short‐lived Hortonian runoff. Because overland flow decreased with increasing scale, rill erosion did not occur on hillslopes. Additionally, runoff coefficients were not significantly different among cover conditions during large storms; thus, the ‘degraded’ forest conditions appear not to greatly enhance peak flows or erosion potential at larger scales, especially when biomat flow is significant. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SWAT application to estimate design runoff curve number for South Korean conditions

Runoff estimations based on the standard USDA–NRCS curve number (CN) table without calibration have a tendency to give inaccurate results when the CN values are applied in South Korea which has many high slope watersheds and that has a continental monsoon climate. Particularly for the design flood estimation, accurately calibrated CN values are required because the estimated peak flow is very sensitive to the selection of CN. However, the lack of flood data makes it difficult to calibrate and assign runoff CNs to Korean watersheds. Even if sufficient data are available to estimate CN values, it is also difficult to obtain the direct flows by separating base flows from total runoff hydrographs due to the temporal irregularity of rainfall events and the resulting complex pattern of runoff. Therefore, an alternative method for estimating CNs needs to be developed to overcome these issues. The purpose of this study is to present a method for estimating runoff CNs using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model which can take into account watershed heterogeneities such as climate conditions, land use and soil types. The proposed CN estimation method uses the simulated flow data by SWAT instead of using measured flow data. This method has advantages in estimating CN values spatially for each subbasin division considering watershed characteristics. The use of daily data can reduce the sensitivity to the abnormality that is commonly involved in flow data with a small time scale. The SWAT‐based CN estimation method, combined with the asymptotic CN method, was applied to the Chungju dam watershed in South Korea. A regression equation was then developed from this approach, which was used to estimate CN values that decrease exponentially as rainfall amounts increase and that converge to 60·6 and 79·4 without and with considering subsurface lateral flow, respectively. Furthermore, the CN values for the antecedent moisture conditions were determined using the probabilistic approach. The CN associated with the 50% probability for the Chungju dam watershed is 87·8 which can be taken to be representative of antecedent moisture condition (AMC) II. The CN_I and CN_III associated with 90% and 10% probabilities are 78·9 and 94·1, respectively. The estimated CN_II = 87·8 differs markedly from the geographic information system (GIS)‐based CN 65·0, which implies that the standard USDA–NRCS CN method should be calibrated to the studied area of interest. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.