Intra‐event intermittency of rainfall: an analysis of the metrics of rain and no‐rain periods

The metric or ‘observable’ properties of intra‐event rainfall intermittency (IERI) are quantified using a 10‐year record from arid Fowlers Gap, Australia. Rainfall events were delineated using the minimum inter‐event time (MIT) criterion, using eight values in the range of 1 h – 24 h. Within events, no‐rain periods were defined as corresponding to rainfall rates R < 0.1 mm/h or R < 0.2 mm/h (both less than typical wet‐canopy evaporation rates during rainfall). In this way, rainfall events were subdivided into rain and no‐rain periods. Intermittency was characterised using two measures: the fraction of rainless time within an event, and the duration of the longest rainless period. Events identified using a minimum inter‐event time (MIT) of 24 h included on average 9.4 h of contiguous no‐rain time (47.5% of the mean event duration), and only 6.8 h of contiguous rain. Total IERI averaged 51.1% for these events. Events defined with MIT = 6 h (a value commonly adopted in the literature) exhibited a mean of 1.53 h of no‐rain and 9.04 h of contiguous rain. Total IERI averaged 13.9% for these events for R < 0.1 mm/h, but reached 39.2% if no‐rain periods were taken as those of <0.2 mm/h. The maximum contiguous no‐rain period for events defined using MIT = 6 h was 10.9 h from an event of 12.6 h duration, and this represents 86.5% of the event duration. Results demonstrate that smaller, shorter, and less intense rainfall events tend to exhibit higher IERI than larger, longer, and more intense events. IERI is relevant to the understanding of land surface processes. Information on the metric properties of IERI in different rainfall types (convective and stratiform) and rainfall climates (arid, maritime, and wet tropical) may prove to have significance for diverse studies in land surface hydrology. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of rainfall intensity fluctuations on infiltration and runoff: rainfall simulation on dryland soils,Fowlers Gap,Australia

Small plots and a dripper rainfall simulator were used to explore the significance of the intensity fluctuations (‘event profile’) within simulated rainfall events on infiltration and runoff from bare, crusted dryland soils. Rainfall was applied at mean rain rates of 10 mm/h. Fourteen simulated rainfall events each involved more than 5000 changes of intensity and included multipeak events with a 25‐mm/h peak of intensity early in the event or late in the event and an event that included a temporary cessation of rain. These are all event profiles commonly seen in natural rain but rarely addressed in rainfall simulation. A rectangular event profile of constant intensity, as commonly used in rainfall simulation experiments, was also adopted for comparative purposes. Results demonstrate that event profile exerts an important effect on infiltration and runoff for these soils and rainfall event profiles. ‘Uniform’ events of unvarying intensity yielded the lowest total runoff, the lowest peak runoff rate and the lowest runoff ratio (0.13). These parameters increased for ‘early peak’ profiles (runoff ratio 0.24) and reached maxima for ‘late peak’ profiles (runoff ratio 0.50). Differences in runoff ratio and peak runoff rate between the ‘uniform’ event profile and those of varying intensity were all statistically significant at p ≤ 0.01. Compared with ‘uniform’ runs, the varying intensity runs yielded larger runoff ratios and peak runoff rates, exceeding those of the ‘uniform’ events by 85%–570%. These results suggest that for small‐plot studies of infiltration and erosion, the continued use of constant rainfall intensity simulations may be sacrificing important information and misrepresenting the mechanisms involved in runoff generation. The implications of these findings for the ecohydrology of the research site, an area of contour‐aligned banded vegetation in which runoff and runon are of critical importance, are highlighted. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characteristics of rain events at an inland locality in northeastern Borneo,Malaysia

Understanding the intensity and duration of tropical rain events is critical to modelling the rate and timing of wet‐canopy evaporation, the suppression of transpiration, the generation of infiltration‐excess overland flow and hence to erosion, and to river responsiveness. Despite this central role, few studies have addressed the characteristics of equatorial rainstorms. This study analyses rainfall data for a 5 km² region largely comprising of the 4 km² Sapat Kalisun Experimental Catchment in the interior of northeastern Borneo at sampling frequencies from 1 min^?1 to 1 day^?1. The work clearly shows that most rainfall within this inland, forested area is received during regular short‐duration events (<15 min) that have a relatively low intensity (i.e. less than two 0·2 mm rain‐gauge tips in almost all 5 min periods). The rainfall appears localized, with significant losses in intergauge correlations being observable in minutes in the case of the typical mid‐afternoon, convective events. This suggests that a dense rain‐gauge network, sampled at a high temporal frequency, is required for accurate distributed rainfall‐runoff modelling of such small catchments. Observed rain‐event intensity is much less than the measured infiltration capacities, and thus supports the tenet of the dominance of quick subsurface responses in controlling river behaviour in this small equatorial catchment. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Intra‐storm evaporation as a component of canopy interception loss in dryland shrubs: observations from Fowlers Gap,Australia

Interception losses from the canopies of dryland plant taxa remain poorly understood, especially the relative contributions of intra‐storm and post‐storm evaporative losses. Employing a new measuring apparatus, this study uses low‐intensity simulated rain, matched to the properties of local rain, to explore interception processes in bluebush shrubs at an Australian dryland site. Five shrub specimens were exposed to simulated rain for 60–90 min. Experiments were repeated at three rainfall intensities (10, 15, and 20 mm h^?1). Canopy evaporation was found from the difference between the flux of water delivered to the shrub and the flux of throughfall, once equilibrium had been established. The results show that evaporation from the wet foliage during rain proceeds at an average rate of 3·6 mm h^?1. This figure is for relatively cool spring‐season conditions; evaporation rates in hot summer conditions would be larger. Intra‐storm evaporation is shown to exceed post‐rain evaporation from interception storage on the shrubs, and this differentiates dryland shrub interception processes from those of the better‐studied wet forest environment. Implications of the high dryland shrub canopy evaporation rates for aspects of dryland ecology are highlighted. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Continuous real‐time analysis of the isotopic composition of precipitation during tropical rain events: Insights into tropical convection

To investigate stable isotopic variability of precipitation in Singapore, we continuously analysed the δ‐value of individual rain events from November 2014 to August 2017 using an online system composed of a diffusion sampler coupled to Cavity Ring‐Down Spectrometer. Over this period, the average value (δ¹⁸O_Avg), the lowest value (δ¹⁸O_Low), and the initial value (δ¹⁸O_Init) varied significantly, ranging from ?0.45 to ?15.54‰, ?0.9 to ?17.65‰, and 0 to ?13.13‰, respectively. All 3 values share similar variability, and events with low δ¹⁸O_Low and δ¹⁸O_Avg values have low δ¹⁸O_Init value. Individual events have limited intraevent variability in δ‐value (Δδ) with the majority having a Δδ below 4‰. Correlation of δ¹⁸O_Low and δ¹⁸O_Avg with δ¹⁸O_Init is much higher than that with Δδ, suggesting that convective activities prior to events have more control over δ‐value than on‐site convective activities. The d‐excess of events also varies considerably in response to the seasonal variation in moisture sources. A 2‐month running mean analysis of δ¹⁸O reveals clear seasonal and interannual variability. Seasonal variability is associated with the meridional movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and evolution of the Asian monsoon. El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a likely driver of interannual variability. During 2015–2016, the strongest El Niño year in recorded history, the majority of events have a δ¹⁸O value higher than the weighted average δ¹⁸O of daily precipitation. δ¹⁸O shows a positive correlation with outgoing longwave radiation in the western Pacific and the Asian monsoon region, and also with Oceanic Niño Index. During El Niño, the convection centre shifts eastward to the central/eastern Pacific, weakening convective activities in Southeast Asia. Our study shows that precipitation δ‐value contains information about El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which has a significant implication for the interpretation of water isotope data and understanding of hydrological processes in tropical regions.     

Rain event properties in nature and in rainfall simulation experiments: a comparative review with recommendations for increasingly systematic study and reporting

In hydrology and geomorphology, less attention has been paid to rain event properties such as duration, mean and peak rain rate than to rain properties such as drop size or kinetic energy. A literature review shows a lack of correspondence between natural and simulated rain events. For example, 26 studies that report event statistics from substantial records of natural rain reveal a mean rain rate of just 3·47 mm h^?1 (s.d. 2·38 mm h^?1). In 17 comparable studies dealing with extreme rain rates including events in cyclonic, tropical convective, and typhoon conditions, a mean maximum rain rate (either hourly or mean event rain rate) of 86·3 mm h^?1 (s.d. 57·7 mm h^?1) is demonstrated. However, 49 studies using rainfall simulation involve a mean maximum rain rate of 103·1 mm h^?1 (s.d. 81·3 mm h^?1), often sustained for > 1 h, exceeding even than of extreme rain events, and nearly 30 times the mean rain rate in ordinary, non‐exceptional, rain events. Thus rainfall simulation is often biased toward high rain rates, and many of the rates employed (in several instances exceeding 150 mm h^?1) appear to have limited relevance to ordinary field conditions. Generally, simulations should resemble natural rain events in each study region. Attention is also drawn to the raindrop arrival rate at the surface. In natural rain, this is known to vary from < 100 m^?2 s^?1 to > 5000 m^?2 s^?1. Arrival rate may need to be added to the list of parameters that must be reproduced realistically in rainfall simulation studies. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identifying the occurrence time of an impending major earthquake: a review

The procedure through which the occurrence time of an impending major earthquake can be determined is reviewed in the light of the recent advances. This can be achieved by analyzing in natural time the seismicity in the candidate area. To apply this general procedure, we need two important elements: first, to know when we should start the analysis, i.e., set the natural time equal to zero. This is the time at which the system enters the critical stage. Second a reliable estimation of the candidate epicentral area. If geoelectrical measurements are taken and the VAN method (after the initials of the three researchers Varotsos, Alexopoulos and Nomicos) is applied, both these elements become available upon the recording of a precursory Seismic Electric Signals (SES) activity, because its initiation marks the time when the system enters the critical stage, and in addition the SES data enable the determination of the epicentral area of the impending mainshock. On the other hand, if geoelectrical data are lacking, we make use of the following two recent findings by means of natural time analysis: First, the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity in a large area exhibit a minimum a few months before a major earthquake almost simultaneously with the initiation of an SES activity. Second, a spatiotemporal study of this minimum unveils an estimate of the epicentral area of the impending major earthquake. Two examples are given that refer to the strongest earthquakes that occurred in Greece and Japan during the last 3 decades, i.e., the M _W6.9 earthquake in southwestern Greece on 14 February 2008 and the M _W9.0 Tohoku earthquake in Japan on 11 March 2011.     

Pre-instrumental earthquakes in a low-seismicity region: A reinvestigation of the macroseismic data for the 16 November 1931 events in Central Finland using statistical analysis

The earthquake in Central Finland on 16November 1931 and its aftershock the sameday are investigated. It is the strongestevent known to have occurred in this areaand thus of importance for understandingthe seismicity there. The originalmacroseismic questionnaires werere-examined using statistical analysis andtaking into account the recommendations forintensity assessments according to theEuropean Macroseismic Scale (EMS-92,-98).The data were augmented with contemporarypress reports. Test theory was applied whenpreprocessing the data, and intensityassessment was carried out by means ofcorrespondence analysis. Differentapproaches were applied to determine themacroseismic field and trace theisoseismals. Some of the practical problemsinvolve the treatment of audibleobservations. The macroseismic magnitudeswere estimated at 4.3 (±0.2) for themain shock and 3.7 (±0.2) for itslargest aftershock. Despite the smallmagnitudes, earthquake light sightings werealso reported for the events.     

Statistical analysis of extreme events in a non-stationary context via a Bayesian framework: case study with peak-over-threshold data

Statistical analysis of extremes currently assumes that data arise from a stationary process, although such an hypothesis is not easily assessable and should therefore be considered as an uncertainty. The aim of this paper is to describe a Bayesian framework for this purpose, considering several probabilistic models (stationary, step-change and linear trend models) and four extreme values distributions (exponential, generalized Pareto, Gumbel and GEV). Prior distributions are specified by using regional prior knowledge about quantiles. Posterior distributions are used to estimate parameters, quantify the probability of models and derive a realistic frequency analysis, which takes into account estimation, distribution and stationarity uncertainties. MCMC methods are needed for this purpose, and are described in the article. Finally, an application to a POT discharge series is presented, with an analysis of both occurrence process and peak distribution.     

Impact of an inter‐basin water transfer and reservoir operation on a karst open streamflow hydrological regime: an example from the Dinaric karst (Croatia)

This paper describes the hydrological changes caused by inter‐basin water transfer and the reservoir development on the hydrological regimes of two rivers. The Sabljaki Reservoir in the Zagorska Mre?nica River and the Bukovik Reservoir in the upper Dobra River began operation in 1959. Both are part of the hydroelectric power plant (HEPP) Gojak, whose installed capacity is 50 m³/s. Their water volumes at the spillway altitudes of 320·10 and 320·15 m a. s. l. are 3·3 × 10⁶ and 0·24 × 10⁶ m³ respectively. Both the Dobra and Mre?nica Rivers are losing, sinking and underground karst rivers. A 9376‐m‐long tunnel provides water from the Sabljaki Reservoir to the HEPP Gojak, which was constructed in the Lower Dobra River. The Sabljaki Reservoir is located in the Pla?ki karst polje, while the Bukovik Reservoir is located in the neighbouring Ogulin karst polje. The consequences of the inter‐basin water transfer are strong and have caused abrupt changes in the hydrological regimes of the downstream sections of both rivers. At the same time, the construction and development of both the reservoirs have also caused hydrological changes to the upstream section of the Upper Dobra River. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Validation through HVSR measurements of a method for the quick detection of site amplification effects from intensity data: an application to a seismic area in Northern Italy

An instrumental validation is attempted of an innovative approach devoted to the quick individuation, from macroseismic data, of site amplification phenomena able to significantly modify seismic hazard levels expected on the basis of average propagation effects only. According to this methodology, two evaluations of hazard are performed at each investigated locality: the former, obtained by epicentral intensity data ‘reduced’ at the site through a probabilistic attenuation function and, the latter, computed by integrating such data with seismic effects actually observed at the site during past earthquakes. The comparison, for each locality, between these two hazard estimates allow to orientate the identification of those sites where local amplifications of earthquake ground motion could be significant. In order to check such methodology, indications obtained in this way from macroseismic data are compared with the estimates of transfer functions performed through the HVSR technique applied to microtremors. Results concerning municipalities located in a seismic area of Northern Italy indicate a good agreement between macroseismic and instrumental estimates.     

The phosphoric acid leak from the wreck of the MV Ece in the English Channel in 2006: Assessment with a ship of opportunity, an operational ecosystem model and historical data

This study evaluates the ship of opportunity (Ferrybox) concept for both sustained monitoring of UK shelf sea waters and numerical model validation. Release of phosphate from the wreck of a chemical tanker (MV Ece) in the western English Channel (49.73 degrees N, 3.25 degrees W) in March 2006 is used to demonstrate the importance of sustained observations in decision support systems and policy development. The Ferrybox system continuously collects sea surface (5m) data from a suite of autonomous electronic sensors installed on a passenger ferry operating year-round between Portsmouth (UK) and Bilbao (Spain). The detection of anomalously high concentrations of phosphate (1.54mmolm(-3), four times the usual level) and onset of phytoplankton growth close to the wreck site in March 2006 was placed in the context of multiple years of measurements (phosphate, nitrate, silicate and chlorophyll) collected from the Ferrybox system (2003-2006) and the long-term time series station E1 (50.03 degrees N, 4.65 degrees W, 1930-1987) in the English Channel. With regard to decision support, release of phosphate from the tanker is unlikely to pose a threat as phytoplankton growth at the end of winter is not unusual in this region and dissolved inorganic nitrogen rather than phosphate (DIN:DIP=10-18) is likely to ultimately limit algal growth in spring 2006. With regard to policy development, the Oslo and Paris (OSPAR) commissions recommendation of sampling every three years in "non-problem areas" is likely to provide statistically inadequate data, given the interannual and decadal variability identified in the Ferrybox and E1 data: the Ferrybox data show that oceanic winter nutrient concentrations varied by 35-50% between 2003/2004 and 2005/2006 due to deeper mixing of water off-shelf in early 2005/2006 and comparisons between the Ferrybox and E1 years show that the western English Channel is currently experiencing a low in phosphate concentrations similar to those in the 1960s. The importance of Ferrybox data in evaluating the reliability of predictive operational models needed in decision support is also demonstrated, by highlighting both strengths and weaknesses in a state-of-the-art ecosystem model designed for UK shelf waters.