Naturalizing the freezeup regimes of regulated rivers and exploring implications to spring ice-jam flooding

Naturalization of the flow hydrograph and ice regime is a key step in assessment of ecological and socioeconomic impacts of regulation across large portions of Europe, Asia and North America, where many rivers are dammed for hydropower generation. Building on previous naturalization of early-freshet flows that influence the nature of breakup and jamming events, novel methodology is developed to estimate natural freezeup flows and thence determine associated water levels, also known to influence subsequent breakup events. Using reservoir inflows, the new methodology is applied to the lower portion of the regulated Peace River, Canada, which forms the northern boundary of the Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD), a Ramsar wetland of international importance that partially depends on spring ice-jam flooding for recharge of its high-elevation, or “perched” basins. The PAD provides habitat for numerous aquatic, terrestrial and avian species and is vital to the maintenance of indigenous culture and lifeways. Naturalized freezeup levels in the lower Peace River are shown to be nearly always lower than corresponding regulated values, with the difference averaging ~1.6 m. Consistent with known physics of river ice breakup processes, the present results suggest that ice-jam flood frequency would likely have been greater under natural conditions. Though potentially adverse from the ecological standpoint, reduction of spring ice-jam flooding can benefit riverside communities. Implications of the present results to and comparison with, other Canadian and international rivers are discussed.     

Cryologic continuum of a steep watershed

Ice processes taking place in steep channels are sensitive to the thermal and hydrological regimes of upstream reaches and tributaries as well as to the local channel morphology. This work presents freezeup, mid‐winter, and breakup data from four channels of increasing order located in a cold temperate watershed during the winter 2010–2011. From headwater channels to the main drainage system, water temperature, ice coverage, and ice processes are reported and related to weather conditions and to channel characteristics. Headwater channels only formed ephemeral ice features, and their water temperature reached as much as 4 °C in mid‐winter. On the other hand, larger channels formed impressively large ice dams, some of them reaching 2 m in height. The development of a suspended ice cover partially insulated the channels; as a result, water temperatures remained above 0 °C even for air temperatures well below freezing. This work presents steep channels ice processes that have not been described in previous publications. The concept of a watershed cryologic continuum (WCC) is developed from the data collected at each channel order. This concept emphasizes the feedback loops that exist between morphology, hydrology, heat, and ice processes in a given watershed and can lead to a better understanding of ice processes taking place at any channel location within that watershed. The WCC can also contribute in improving our understanding of the impacts of climate change on the cryologic and thermal regimes of steep channels. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interannual variability in glacier contribution to runoff from a high‐elevation Andean catchment: understanding the role of debris cover in glacier hydrology

We present a field‐data rich modelling analysis to reconstruct the climatic forcing, glacier response, and runoff generation from a high‐elevation catchment in central Chile over the period 2000–2015 to provide insights into the differing contributions of debris‐covered and debris‐free glaciers under current and future changing climatic conditions. Model simulations with the physically based glacio‐hydrological model TOPKAPI‐ETH reveal a period of neutral or slightly positive mass balance between 2000 and 2010, followed by a transition to increasingly large annual mass losses, associated with a recent mega drought. Mass losses commence earlier, and are more severe, for a heavily debris‐covered glacier, most likely due to its strong dependence on snow avalanche accumulation, which has declined in recent years. Catchment runoff shows a marked decreasing trend over the study period, but with high interannual variability directly linked to winter snow accumulation, and high contribution from ice melt in dry periods and drought conditions. The study demonstrates the importance of incorporating local‐scale processes such as snow avalanche accumulation and spatially variable debris thickness, in understanding the responses of different glacier types to climate change. We highlight the increased dependency of runoff from high Andean catchments on the diminishing resource of glacier ice during dry years.     

Impacts of climate change in three hydrologic regimes in British Columbia,Canada

Hydrologic modelling has been applied to assess the impacts of projected climate change within three study areas in the Peace, Campbell and Columbia River watersheds of British Columbia, Canada. These study areas include interior nival (two sites) and coastal hybrid nival–pluvial (one site) hydro‐climatic regimes. Projections were based on a suite of eight global climate models driven by three emission scenarios to project potential climate responses for the 2050s period (2041–2070). Climate projections were statistically downscaled and used to drive a macro‐scale hydrology model at high spatial resolution. This methodology covers a large range of potential future climates for British Columbia and explicitly addresses both emissions and global climate model uncertainty in the final hydrologic projections. Snow water equivalent is projected to decline throughout the Peace and Campbell and at low elevations within the Columbia. At high elevations within the Columbia, snow water equivalent is projected to increase with increased winter precipitation. Streamflow projections indicate timing shifts in all three watersheds, predominantly because of changes in the dynamics of snow accumulation and melt. The coastal hybrid site shows the largest sensitivity, shifting to more rainfall‐dominated system by mid‐century. The two interior sites are projected to retain the characteristics of a nival regime by mid‐century, although streamflow‐timing shifts result from increased mid‐winter rainfall and snowmelt, and earlier freshet onset. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Lake Ladoga ice phenology: Mean condition and extremes during the last 65 years

Winter conditions play an important role for the largest lake in Europe—Lake Ladoga. The ice cover lasts for 171 ± 3 days on average from the early November until the mid‐May. We investigated the ice regime of Lake Ladoga using a constructed ice database of aircraft surveys and satellite images. More than 1250 surveys of the lake's ice cover from 1943 to 2010 were collected and analysed to determine mean and extreme ice conditions for winters of different types of severity. The time series of ice cover percentage over the lake was plotted. On average, 18 observational ice charts were made every winter. Individual ice phenology records show considerable year‐to‐year variation. For this reason, records typically have been combined and analysed as groups (categories). Extremely cold winters were determined as winters with complete ice cover that lasts more than three months which is approximately 90% quartiles from all winters with complete ice cover. The lake surface was completely covered with ice for more than three months during 5 seasons. Extremely warm winters when the maximum ice cover was less than 70% of the lake area occurred during 5 seasons as well. A basic relationship between the winter severity as winter maximum of accumulated freezing degree‐days (AFDD) and the earlier derived Relative Ice Cover Index (RICI) was established. We have used teleconnection indices such as North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the period from October to May for estimation of different types of Lake Ladoga's ice conditions. The AO index in winter months and local winter maximum of AFDD explained much of the interannual variation in ice cover. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes in the dynamics/energetics of surface and internal tides in the White Sea on the coexistence of shore-fast and drifting ice covers

The results of modeling for _M2${\mathrm{M}}_2$ surface and internal tides in the White Sea are discussed. These results are obtained for the case when shore-fast and drifting ice covers are present concurrently. It is assumed that the interface between ice covers is of non-tidal origin (i.e., it is pre-assigned) and that ice rheology is viscous-elastic, representative of the low temperatures typical of winter conditions. Emphasis is placed on tidal energetics and, in particular, on the averaged (over a tidal cycle) values of the density and the dissipation rate of barotropic/baroclinic tidal energy. It is shown that in the White Sea, unlike in other marginal seas, the averaged (over a tidal cycle) and depth-integrated density of baroclinic tidal energy for the combined ice cover is much less than the same defined density of barotropic tidal energy. Similarly, the averaged and integrated (over the volume of the White Sea) rate of baroclinic tidal energy dissipation is much less than the same defined rate of barotropic tidal energy dissipation. The latter, in turn, is greater than for the shore-fast ice cover, but is smaller than for the drifting ice cover.     

Modelling ice conditions in the easternmost Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea

To model ice conditions in the eastern Gulf of Finland, a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrodynamic model is coupled with the advanced sea-ice model HELMI (Haapala et al., 2005). To test the model in extreme situations, the ice pattern in the eastern Gulf of Finland was simulated for a mild ice winter (2007–2008) and for a moderate one (2003–2004). The reference runs were performed on the assumption that the ice in the model domain is fast ice if the sea depth is less than 10 m. Using this assumption, the ice thickness averaged over the Neva Bay (the easternmost part of the Gulf of Finland) is overestimated by the model for almost the entire wintertime in the mild winter and during the ice formation and melting periods in the moderate winter, as compared with the thickness reported in ice charts.     

River ice cover influence on sediment transportation at present and under projected hydroclimatic conditions

A large number of rivers are frozen annually, and the river ice cover has an influence on the geomorphological processes. These processes in cohesive sediment rivers are not fully understood. Therefore, this paper demonstrates the impact of river ice cover on sediment transport, i.e. turbidity, suspended sediment loads and erosion potential, compared with a river with ice‐free flow conditions. The present sediment transportation conditions during the annual cycle are analysed, and the implications of climate change on wintertime geomorphological processes are estimated. A one‐dimensional hydrodynamic model has been applied to the Kokemäenjoki River in Southwest Finland. The shear stress forces directed to the river bed are simulated with present and projected hydroclimatic conditions. The results of shear stress simulations indicate that a thermally formed smooth ice cover diminishes river bed erosion, compared with an ice‐free river with similar discharges. Based on long‐term field data, the river ice cover reduces turbidity statistically significantly. Furthermore, suspended sediment concentrations measured in ice‐free and ice‐covered river water reveal a diminishing effect of ice cover on riverine sediment load. The hydrodynamic simulations suggest that the influence of rippled ice cover on shear stress is varying. Climate change is projected to increase the winter discharges by 27–77% on average by 2070–2099. Thus, the increasing winter discharges and possible diminishing ice cover periods both increase the erosion potential of the river bed. Hence, the wintertime sediment load of the river is expected to become larger in the future. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ice‐jam flood risk assessment and mapping

In northern regions, river ice‐ jam flooding can be more severe than open‐water flooding causing property and infrastructure damages, loss of human life and adverse impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Very little has been performed to assess the risk induced by ice‐related floods because most risk assessments are limited to open‐water floods. The specific objective of this study is to incorporate ice‐jam numerical modelling tools (e.g. RIVICE, Monte‐Carlo simulation) into flood hazard and risk assessment along the Peace River at the Town of Peace River (TPR) in Alberta, Canada. Adequate historical data for different ice‐jam and open‐water flooding events were available for this study site and were useful in developing ice‐affected stage‐frequency curves. These curves were then applied to calibrate a numerical hydraulic model, which simulated different ice jams and flood scenarios along the Peace River at the TPR. A Monte‐Carlo analysis was then carried out to acquire an ensemble of water level profiles to determine the 1 : 100‐year and 1 : 200‐year annual exceedance probability flood stages for the TPR. These flood stages were then used to map flood hazard and vulnerability of the TPR. Finally, the flood risk for a 200‐year return period was calculated to be an average of $32/m²/a ($/m²/a corresponds to a unit of annual expected damages or risk). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mechanisms of ice accumulation in a river bend-an experimental study

In this study,under conditions of different flow and ice discharge,extensive experiments have been carried out in a 180°-bend flume and an S-shaped bend channel.The phenomenon and mechanisms of ice accumulation in the bend channel have been studied.Ice accumulation along the convex bank was normally thicker than that along the concave bank.The maximum thickness of ice accumulation in the downstream bend channel occurred close to the convex bank.The difference between the maximum thickness and the minimum thickness of ice accumulation was significant.The entire ice accumulation became unstable if flow Froude number was large.When the flow Froude Number is high,the entire ice accumulation becomes unstable.For Froude Number between 0.035 and 0.060,the bottom surface of ice accumulation became waved in form.Small changes in Froude number and ice discharge rate can change a channel from a state of no ice accumulation to uniform accumulation over the channel bend.The higher the ice discharge,the more uniform the ice accumulation.The experimental results have been compared with field observations of ice jams at the Hequ Reach of the Yellow River.     

Absorption of Solar Radiation by Snow-and-Ice Cover of Lakes

Based on the analysis of data of many-year actinometric observations, a considerable temporal (interannual, seasonal, synoptic, and diurnal) and spatial variability of the albedo of the snow-and-ice cover of a shallow lake is shown. The ranges of variations in the albedo of snow and ice for a wide spectrum of the state of surface and weather conditions are presented. The variability of the thickness and structure of snow-and-ice cover is analyzed for different periods in winter. The results of field experiments aimed to determine the degree of absorption of solar radiation by snow and ice are presented. The effective coefficients of absorption of solar radiation by snow and ice are determined. The comparison of the observed and calculated values of the under-ice radiation has shown that the determined coefficients adequately describe the absorption of solar radiation by snow-and-ice cover.     

Characteristics and distribution patterns of snow and meteoric ice in the Weddell Sea and their contribution to the mass balance of sea ice

Based on snow- and ice-thickness measurements at >11 000 points augmented by snow- and icecore studies during 4 expeditions from 1986 - 92 in the Weddell Sea, we describe characteristics and distribution patterns of snow and meteoric ice and assess their importance for the mass balance of sea ice. For first-year ice (FY) in the central and eastern Weddell Sea, mean snow depth amounts to 0.16 m (mean ice thickness 0.75 m) compared to 0.53 m (mean ice thickness 1.70 m) for second-year ice (SY) in the northwestern Weddell Sea. Ridged ice retains a thicker snow cover than level ice, with ice thickness and snow depth negatively correlated for the latter, most likely due to aeolian redistribution. During the different expeditions, 8, 15, 17 and 40% of all drill holes exhibited negative freeboard. As a result of flooding and brine seepage into the snow pack, snow salinities averaged 4‰. Through ¹⁸O measurements the distribution of meteoric ice (i.e. precipitation) in the sea-ice cover was assessed. Roughly 4% of the total ice thickness consist of meteoric ice (FY 3%, SY 5%). With a mean density of 290 kg/m³, the snow cover itself contributes 8% to total ice mass (7% FY, 11% SY). Analysis of ¹⁸O in snow indicates a local maximum in accumulation in the 65 to 75^S latitude zone. Hydrogen peroxide in the snow has proven useful as a temporal tracer and for identification of second-year floes. Drawing on accumulation data from stations at the Weddell Sea coast, it becomes clear that the onset of ice growth is important for the evolution of ice thickness and the interaction between ice and snow. Loss of snow to leads due to wind drift may be considerable, yet is reduced owing to metamorphic processes in the snow column. This is confirmed by a comparison of accumulation data from coastal stations and from snow depths over sea ice. Temporal and spatial accumulation patterns of snow are shown to be important in controlling the sea-ice cover evolution.     

First‐year sea ice spring melt transitions in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from time‐series synthetic aperture radar data, 1992–2002

This paper synthesizes 10‐years' worth of interannual time‐series space‐borne ERS‐1 and RADARSAT‐1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data collected coincident with daily measurement of snow‐covered, land‐fast first‐year sea ice (FYI) geophysical and surface radiation data collected from the Seasonal Sea Ice Monitoring and Modeling Site, Collaborative‐Interdisciplinary Cryospheric Experiment and 1998 North Water Polynya study over the period 1992 to 2002. The objectives are to investigate the seasonal co‐relationship of the SAR time‐series dataset with selected surface mass (bulk snow thickness) and climate state variables (surface temperature and albedo) measured in situ for the purpose of measuring the interannual variability of sea ice spring melt transitions and validating a time‐series SAR methodology for sea ice surface mass and climate state parameter estimation. We begin with a review of the salient processes required for our interpretation of time‐series microwave backscatter from land‐fast FYI. Our results suggest that time‐series SAR data can reliably measure the timing and duration of surface albedo transitions at daily to weekly time‐scales and at a spatial scales that are on the order of hundreds of metres. Snow thickness on FYI immediately prior to melt onset explains a statistically significant portion of the variability in timing of SAR‐detected melt onset to pond onset for SAR time‐series that are made up of more than 25 images. Our results also show that the funicular regime of snowmelt, resolved in time‐series SAR data at a temporal resolution of approximately 2·5 images per week, is not detectable for snow covers less than 25 cm in thickness. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ice processes on medium‐sized north‐temperate lakes

Lake ice supports a range of socio‐economic and cultural activities including transportation and winter recreational actives. The influence of weather patterns on ice‐cover dynamics of temperate lakes requires further understanding for determining how changes in ice composition will impact ice safety and the range of ecosystem services provided by seasonal ice cover. An investigation of lake ice formation and decay for three lakes in Central Ontario, Canada, took place over the course of two winters, 2015–2016 and 2016–2017, through the use of outdoor digital cameras, a Shallow Water Ice Profiler (upward‐looking sonar), and weekly field measurements. Temperature fluctuations across 0°C promoted substantial early season white ice growth, with lesser amounts of black ice forming later in the season. Ice thickening processes observed were mainly through meltwater, or midwinter rain, refreezing on the ice surface. Snow redistribution was limited, with frequent melt events limiting the duration of fresh snow on the ice, leading to a fairly uniform distribution of white ice across the lakes in 2015–2016 (standard deviations week to week ranging from 3 to 5 cm), but with slightly more variability in 2016–2017 when more snow accumulated over the season (5 to 11 cm). White ice dominated the end‐of‐season ice composition for both seasons representing more than 70% of the total ice thickness, which is a stark contrast to Arctic lake ice that is composed mainly of black ice. This research has provided the first detailed lake ice processes and conditions from medium‐sized north‐temperate lakes and provided important information on temperate region lake ice characteristics that will enhance the understanding of the response of temperate lake ice to climate and provide insight on potential changes to more northern ice regimes under continued climate warming.     

Heterogeneity in supraglacial debris thickness and its role in glacier mass changes of the Mount Gongga

In the Tibetan Plateau, many glaciers have extensive covers of supraglacial debris in their ablation zones, which affects glacier response to climate change by altering ice melting and spatial patterns of mass loss. Insufficient debris thickness data make it difficult to analyze regional debris-cover effects. Maritime glaciers of the Mount Gongga have been characterized by a substantial reduction in glacier area and ice mass in recent decades. The thermal property of the debris layer estimated from remotely sensed data reveals that debris-covered glaciers are dominant in this region, on which the proportion of debris cover to total glacier area varies from 1.74% to 53.0%. Using a physically-based debris-cover effect assessment model, we found that although the presence of supraglacial debris has a significant insulating effect on heavily debris-covered glaciers, it accelerates ice melting on ~10.2% of total ablation zone and produces rapid wastage of ~25% of the debris-covered glaciers, leading to the similar mass losses between the debris-covered and debris-free glaciers. Widespread debris cover also facilitates the development of active terminus regions. Regional differences in debris-cover effects are apparent, highlighting the importance of debris cover for understanding glacier mass changes in the Tibetan Plateau and other mountain ranges around the world.     

Climate impacts on extreme ice-jam events in Canadian rivers

Abstract

River ice jams can produce extreme flood events with major social, economic and ecological impacts throughout Canada. Ice breakup and jamming processes are briefly reviewed and shown to be governed by the flow hydrograph, the thickness and strength of the winter ice cover, and the stream morphology. These factors are directly or indirectly influenced by weather conditions which implies potential impacts of climate change and variability on the severity of ice-jamming. Relevant work has to date focused on simple measures of climatic effects, such as the timing of freeze-up and breakup, and indicates trends that are consistent with concomitant changes in air temperature. More recently, it has been found that increased incidence of mid-winter breakup events and higher freshet flows in certain parts of Canada could enhance the frequency and severity of ice jams. Possible future trends under climate warming scenarios are discussed and associated impacts identified in a general manner.     

Modelling inter-annual and spatial variability of ice cover in a temperate lake with complex morphology

The formation of ice cover on lakes alters heat and energy transfer with the water column. The fraction of surface area covered by ice and the timing of ice-on and ice-off therefore affects hydrodynamics and the seasonal development of stratification and related ecosystem processes. Multi-year model simulations of temperate lake ecosystems that freeze partially or completely therefore require simulation of the formation and duration of ice cover. Here we present a multi-year hydrodynamic simulation of an alpine lake with complex morphology (Lower Lake Constance, LLC) using the three-dimensional (3D) model Aquatic Ecosystem Model (AEM3D) over a period of 9 years. LLC is subdivided into three basins (Gnadensee, Zeller See and Rheinsee) which differ in depth, morphological features, hydrodynamic conditions and ice cover phenology and thickness. Model results were validated with field observations and additional information on ice cover derived from a citizen science approach using information from social media. The model reproduced the occurrence of thin ice as well as its inter-annual variability and differentiated the frequency and extent of ice cover between the three sub-basins. It captured that full ice cover occurs almost each winter in Gnadensee, but only rarely in Zeller See and Rheinsee. The results indicate that the 3D model AEM3D is suitable for simulating long-term dynamics of thin ice cover in lakes with complex morphology and inter-annual changes in spatially heterogeneous ice cover.     

Ice‐cover variability on shallow lakes at high latitudes: model simulations and observations

A one‐dimensional thermodynamic model for simulating lake‐ice phenology is presented and evaluated. The model can be driven with observed daily or hourly atmospheric forcing of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, cloud amount and snowfall. In addition to computing the energy balance components, key model output includes the temperature profile at an arbitrary number of levels within the ice/snow (or the water temperature if there is no ice) and ice thickness (clear ice and snow‐ice) on a daily basis, as well as freeze‐up and break‐up dates. The lake‐ice model is used to simulate ice‐growth processes on shallow lakes in arctic, sub‐arctic, and high‐boreal forest environments. Model output is compared with field and remote sensing observations gathered over several ice seasons. Simulated ice thickness, including snow‐ice formation, compares favourably with field measurements. Ice‐on and ice‐off dates are also well simulated when compared with field and satellite observations, with a mean absolute difference of 2 days. Model simulations and observations illustrate the key role that snow cover plays on the seasonal evolution of ice thickness and the timing of spring break‐up. It is also shown that lake morphometry, depth in particular, is a determinant of ice‐off dates for shallow lakes at high latitudes. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mass balance of the Lambert Glacier basin, East Antarctica

Since it is the largest glacier system in Antarctica, the Lambert Glacier basin plays an important role in the mass balance of the overall Antarctic ice sheet. The observed data and shallow core studies from the inland traverse investigations in recent years show that there are noticeable differences in the distribution and variability of the snow accumulation rate between east and west sides. On the east side, the accumulation is higher on the average and has increased in the past decades, while on the west side it is contrary. The ice movement measurement and the ice flux calculation indicate that the ice velocity and the flux are larger in east than in west, meaning that the major part of mass supply for the glacier is from the east side. The mass budget estimate with the latest data gives that the integrated accumulation over the upstream area of the investigation traverse route is larger than the outflow ice flux by 13%, suggesting that the glacier basin is in a positive mass balance state and the ice thickness will increase if the present climate is keeping.     

‘Detachment’ of icefield outlet glaciers: catastrophic thinning and retreat of the Columbia Glacier (Canada)

We present an investigation of changes taking place on the Columbia Glacier, a lake-terminating outlet of the Columbia Icefield in the Canadian Rockies. The Columbia Icefield is the largest, and one of the most important, ice bodies in the Canadian Rockies. Like other ice masses, it stores water as snow and ice during the winter and releases it during warmer summer months, sustaining river flows and the ecosystems that rely on them. However, the Columbia Glacier and Icefield is shrinking. We use Landsat and Sentinel-2 imagery to show that the Columbia Glacier has retreated increasingly rapidly in recent years, and suggest that this looks set to continue. Importantly, we identify a previously undocumented process that appears to be playing an important role in the retreat of this glacier. This process involves the ‘detachment’ of the glacier tongue from its accumulation area in the Columbia Icefield. This process is important because the tongue is cut off from the accumulation area and there is no replenishment of ice that melts in the glacier's ablation area by flow from upglacier. As a consequence, for a given rate of ablation, the ice in the tongue will disappear much faster than it would if the local mass loss by melting/calving was partly offset by mass input by glacier flow. Such a change would alter the relationship between rates of surface melting and rates of glacier frontal retreat. We provide evidence that detachment has already occurred elsewhere on the Columbia Icefield and that it is likely to affect other outlet glaciers in the future. Modelling studies forecast this detachment activity, which ultimately results in a smaller ‘perched’ icefield without active outlets. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.