水氡动态图强震危险区预测的新方法

水氡动态图强震危险区预测法是一种地下流体的地震分析预报新方法。 对该方法做了系统的介绍,其内容有: 水氡基值变化率动态图像的生成方法,水氡变化率高值异常区图形演化与地震震中位置的关系,强震危险区预测的标志与方法。检验性预测结果表明,该方法具有预测效能,可在实际地震预报中使用。     

Evaluating soil water routing approaches in watershed-scale,ecohydrologic modelling

Soil water dynamics are central in linking and regulating natural cycles in ecohydrology, however, mathematical representation of soil water processes in models is challenging given the complexity of these interactions. To assess the impacts of soil water simulation approaches on various model outputs, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool was modified to accommodate an alternative soil water percolation method and tested at two geographically and climatically distinct, instrumented watersheds in the United States. Soil water was evaluated at the site scale via measured observations, and hydrologic and biophysical outputs were analysed at the watershed scale. Results demonstrated an improved Kling–Gupta Efficiency of up to 0.3 and a reduction in percent bias from 5 to 25% at the site scale, when soil water percolation was changed from a threshold, bucket-based approach to an alternative approach based on variable hydraulic conductivity. The primary difference between the approaches was attributed to the ability to simulate soil water content above field capacity for successive days; however, regardless of the approach, a lack of site-specific characterization of soil properties by the soils database at the site scale was found to severely limit the analysis. Differences in approach led to a regime shift in percolation from a few, high magnitude events to frequent, low magnitude events. At the watershed scale, the variable hydraulic conductivity-based approach reduced average annual percolation by 20–50 mm, directly impacting the water balance and subsequently biophysical predictions. For instance, annual denitrification increased by 14–24 kg/ha for the new approach. Overall, the study demonstrates the need for continued efforts to enhance soil water model representation for improving biophysical process simulations.     

Reactive transport in unsaturated soil: Comprehensive modelling of the dynamic spatial and temporal mass balance of water and chemical components

By implementing the moisture-based form of Richards’ equation into the geochemical modelling framework PHREEQC, a generic tool for the simulation of one-dimensional flow and solute transport in the vadose zone undergoing complex geochemical reactions was developed. A second-order, cell-centred, explicit finite difference scheme was employed for the numerical solution of the partial differential equations of flow and transport. In this scheme, the charge-balanced soil solution is treated as an assembly of elements, where changes in water and solute contents result from fluxes of elements across cell boundaries. Therefore, water flow is considered in terms of oxygen and hydrogen transport.     

Changes of GPR spectra due to the presence of hydrocarbon contamination in the ground

The location of hydrocarbon contamination in the ground using the GPR method is based mainly on information taken from reflected signals. In the cases investigated in Polish contaminated sites, such signals were very seldom recorded. A long time after spillage, contamination takes the form of plumes with different size and distribution, which depends on geological and hydraulic properties of the ground. In this paper, it is shown that the set of hydrocarbon plumes should be described with a stochastic model, and such plumes may generate the scattered waves which cause changes in the power spectra. It has been observed that the power spectra of GPR signals over contaminated areas are quite different from such spectra over clear ones. These differences were discussed in this paper on the basis of theoretical analysis, numerical modelling and the results of GPR terrain surveys.     

Stochastic modelling of groundwater flow and solute transport in aquifers

This paper presents an introductory overview of recently developed stochastic theories for tackling spatial variability problems in predicting groundwater flow and solute transport. Advantages and limitations of the theories are discussed. Lastly, strategies based on the stochastic approaches to predict solute transport in aquifers are recommended.     

Effect of salt types on salt precipitation and water transport in saline sandy soil

Salt precipitation on the surface of porous media significantly affects water transport processes. Most studies on salt precipitation mainly focused on single salts, but in nature, salt precipitation usually occurs as mixtures. Consequently, information on the crystallization of salt mixtures and its effect on water transport remains scarce. This study investigated the precipitation of mixtures (the mass ratios of NaCl:Na₂SO₄ were 3:7, 5:5, and 7:3, respectively) of NaCl (typical efflorescence) and Na₂SO₄ (typical subflorescence) in the initially saturated sandy soil columns and its effect on evaporation and compared it with the cases of the two salts individually. The results showed that salt mixtures exhibited a mixed pattern of crystals including both efflorescence and subflorescence, and the efflorescence showed granular aggregation, unlike the mono-salts. The crystallization coverage of the salt mixtures was smaller than that of NaCl mono-salt; high (7:3) and low (5:5 and 3:7) proportions of NaCl led to larger and smaller crystallization coverage than that of Na₂SO₄ mono-salt, respectively. While the salt mixtures had less crystallization coverage than the mono-salts, they showed lower evaporation because the salt mixtures formed a denser crystallization structure of efflorescence-subflorescence-soil layer, this crystallization structure exhibited greater inhibition of water vapour diffusion, thus reducing evaporation. In addition, the crystallization of the salt mixtures with higher NaCl proportion afforded greater resistance of evaporation. The mixed crystallization pattern formed by the salt mixtures significantly enhances the crystallization resistance to evaporation.     

地倾斜资料Nakai拟合分析的映震能力

应用Nakai拟合方法对河北省的地倾斜资料全部进行了处理，通过处理共得到固体潮振幅因子异常79项，对处理结果进行了全程统计，统计了该方法的地震对应率，漏报率，虚报率，根据结果计算了该方法的R值评分，评估了其映震效果，在此基础上提出了适于河北地区的相对参数。     

A regional coupled approach to water cycle prediction during winter 2013/14 in the United Kingdom

A regional coupled approach to water cycle prediction is demonstrated for the 4-month period from November 2013 to February 2014. This provides the first multi-component analysis of precipitation, soil moisture, river flow and coastal ocean simulations produced by an atmosphere-land-ocean coupled system focussed on the United Kingdom (UK), running with horizontal grid spacing of around 1.5 km across all components. The Unified Model atmosphere component, in which convection is explicitly simulated, reproduces the observed UK rainfall accumulation (r² of 0.95 for water day accumulation), but there is a notable bias in its spatial distribution—too dry over western upland areas and too wet further east. The JULES land surface model soil moisture state is shown to be in broad agreement with a limited number of cosmic-ray neutron probe observations. A comparison of observed and simulated river flow shows the coupled system is useful for predicting broad scale features, such as distinguishing high and low flow regions and times during the period of interest but are less accurate than optimized hydrological models. The impact of simulated river discharge on NEMO model simulations of coastal ocean state is explored in the coupled modelling framework, with comparisons provided relative to experiments using climatological river input and no river input around the UK coasts. Results show that the freshwater flux around the UK contributes of order 0.2 psu to the mean surface salinity, and comparisons to profile observations give evidence of an improved vertical structure when applying simulated flows. This study represents the first assessment of the coupled system performance from a hydrological perspective, with priorities for future model developments and challenges for evaluation of such systems discussed.     

Physically based modelling of sediment generation and transport under a large rainfall simulator

A series of large rainfall simulator experiments was conducted in 2002 and 2003 on a small plot located in an experimental catchment in the North Island of New Zealand. These experiments measured both runoff and sediment transport under carefully controlled conditions. A physically based hydrological modelling system (SHETRAN) was then applied to reproduce the observed hydrographs and sedigraphs. SHETRAN uses physically based equations to represent flow and sediment transport, and two erodibility coefficients to model detachment of soil particles by raindrop erosion and overland flow erosion. The rate of raindrop erosion also depended on the amount of bare ground under the simulator; this was estimated before each experiment. These erodibility coefficients were calibrated systematically for summer and winter experiments separately, and lower values were obtained for the summer experiments. Earlier studies using small rainfall simulators in the vicinity of the plot also found the soil to be less erodible in summer and autumn. Limited validation of model parameters was carried out using results from a series of autumn experiments. The modelled suspended sediment load was also sensitive to parameters controlling the generation of runoff from the rainfall simulator plot; therefore, we found that accurate runoff predictions were important for the sediment predictions, especially from the experiments where the pasture cover was good and overland flow erosion was the dominant mechanism. The rainfall simulator experiments showed that the mass of suspended sediment increased post‐grazing, and according to the model this was due to raindrop detachment. The results indicated that grazing cattle or sheep on steeply sloping hill‐country paddocks should be carefully managed, especially in winter, to limit the transport of suspended sediment into watercourses. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the cumulant expansion up scaling of ground water contaminant transport equation with nonequilibrium sorption

The laboratory-scale ground water transport equation with nonequilibrium sorption reaction subjected to unsteady, nondivergence-free, and nonstationary velocity fields is up-scaled to the field-scale by using the ensemble-averaged equations obtained from the cumulant expansion ensemble-averaging method. It is found that existing ensemble-averaged equations obtained with the help of the cumulant expansion method for the system of linear partial differential equations are not second-order exact. Although the cumulant expansion methodology is designed for noncommuting operators, it is found that there are still commudativity requirements that need to be satisfied by the functions and constants exist in the coefficient matrix of the system of ordinary/partial differential equations. A reversibility requirement, which covers the commudativity requirements, is also proposed when applying the cumulant expansion method to a system of partial differential equations/a partial differential equation. The significance of the new velocity correction obtained in this study due to the applied second-order exact cumulant expansion is investigated on a numerical example with a linear trend in the distribution coefficient. It is found that the effect of the new velocity correction can be significant enough to affect the maximum concentration values and the plume center of mass in the case of a trending distribution coefficient in a physically heterogeneous environment.     

Validation of a soil water balance model using soil water content and pressure head data

The validation of soil water balance models and the evaluation of the quality of the model predictions at field‐scale require time‐series of in situ measured model outputs. In our study, we have validated such a model using a 6‐year period with time‐series of automatically recorded, daily volumetric soil water contents measured with the time‐domain reflectometry with intelligent microelements (TRIME) method and daily pressure heads measured with tensiometers. The comparisons of simulated with measured soil water contents and pressure heads were analysed using the modelling efficiency index (IA) and the square root of the mean square error (RMSE) in order to evaluate the prediction quality of the model. In our study, IA and RMSE, obtained either from the comparison of simulated with measured soil water contents or the comparison of calculated with observed pressure heads, in some cases lead to different results regarding the evaluation of the simulation quality of the soil water balance model. For example, a good fit between simulated and observed soil water contents does not necessarily result in a comparably good fit between the corresponding calculated and measured pressure heads. Therefore, a combined use of both measurement techniques, which takes into account their respective advantages and disadvantages, gives a more complete overview on the simulation quality of the soil water balance model than the single use of one of those techniques. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation of field‐scale water flow and bromide transport in a cracked clay soil

Single domain models may seriously underestimate leaching of nutrients and pesticides to groundwater in clay soils with shrinkage cracks. Various two‐domain models have been developed, either empirical or physically based, which take into account the effects of cracks on water flow and solute transport. This paper presents a model concept that uses the clay shrinkage characteristics to derive crack volume and crack depth under transient field conditions. The concept has been developed to simulate field average behaviour of a field with cracks, rather than flow and transport at a small plot. Water flow and solute transport are described with basic physics, which allow process and scenario analysis. The model concept is part of the more general agrohydrological model SWAP, and is applied to a field experiment on a cracked clay soil, at which water flow and bromide transport were measured during 572 days. A single domain model was not able to mimic the field‐average water flow and solute transport. Incorporation of the crack concept considerably improved the simulation of water content and bromide leaching to the groundwater. Still deviations existed between the measured and simulated bromide concentration profiles. The model did not reproduce the observed bromide retardation in the top layer and the high bromide dispersion resulting from water infiltration at various soil depths. A sensitivity analysis showed that the amounts of bromide leached were especially sensitive to the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the top layer, the solute transfer from the soil matrix to crack water flow and the mean residence time of rapid drainage. The shrinkage characteristic and the soil hydraulic properties of the clay matrix showed a low sensitivity. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of water excess on soil carbon dioxide,seepage water chemistry,and calcite speleothem growth: An experimental and modelling approach

The effect of the water excess in soil on soil gaseous carbon dioxide concentrations (c_CO2) was studied based on field experiments. The gradual water addition of 15 and 30 L m⁻² to leptosols and anthrosols, simulating 15 and 30 mm precipitation, respectively, caused the overall c_CO2 increase of 1.53 × 10⁻¹ mol m⁻³ (increase by 60%) and 1.61 × 10⁻¹ mol m⁻³ (increase by 112%) in the soil airs. The effect of the c_CO2 increment on seepage water, cave dripwater chemistry, and calcite speleothem overgrowths was deduced from geochemical modelling. It showed that the c_CO2 increments may lead to the increments in total dissolved carbon, aqueous calcium, and dissolved solids of 1.10 × 10⁻³ mol L⁻¹ (increase by 35%), 4.45 × 10⁻⁴ mol L⁻¹ (increase by 30%), and 1.55 × 10⁻³ mol L⁻¹ (increase by 34%), respectively. After the total degassing of CO₂ in the cave, the increment in the saturation index of dripwater, SI, could reach up to ΔSI = 0.31, which means an increase by hundreds of percent. The water excess of 5 L m⁻² following a dry period would cause the increment in saturation index ΔSI = 0.17. The modelling further showed that the c_CO2 increase associated with the 30 L m⁻² water excess could induce the calcite overgrowth up to 1 μm thick per 1 m² surface area. The effect of water excess with additional water supplies gradually weakens, probably due to reduced CO₂ diffusivity and soil microorganism activity. It can be assumed that the most contrasting peaks in dripwater chemistry are associated with the individual precipitation events after short dry periods. The increased supersaturation of dripwater is expected to lead to faster growth of speleothem and changes in calcite textures.     

An improved process-based representation of stream solute transport in the soil and water assessment tools

Hydrological models have long been used to study the interactions between land, surface and groundwater systems, and to predict and manage water quantity and quality. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), a widely used hydrological model, can simulate various ecohydrological processes on land and subsequently route the water quality constituents through surface and subsurface waters. So far, in-stream solute transport algorithms of the SWAT model have only been minimally revised, even though it has been acknowledged that an improvement of in-stream process representation can contribute to better model performance with respect to water quality. In this study, we aim to incorporate a new and improved solute transport model into the SWAT model framework. The new process-based model was developed using in-stream process equations from two well established models—the One-dimensional Transport with Inflow and Storage model and the Enhanced Stream Water Quality Model. The modified SWAT model (Mir-SWAT) was tested for water quality predictions in a study watershed in Germany. Compared to the standard SWAT model, Mir-SWAT improved dissolved oxygen (DO) predictions by removing extreme low values of DO (<6 mg/L) simulated by SWAT. Phosphate concentration peaks were reduced during high flows and a better match of daily predicted and measured values was attained using the Mir-SWAT model (R² = 0.17, NSE = −0.65, RSR = 1.29 with SWAT; R² = 0.28, NSE = −0.04, RSR = 1.02 with Mir-SWAT). In addition, Mir-SWAT performed better than the SWAT model in terms of Chlorophyll-a content particularly during winter months, improving the NSE and RSR for monthly average Chl-a by 74 and 42%, respectively. With the new model improvements, we aim to increase confidence in the stream solute transport component of the model, improve the understanding of nutrient dynamics in the stream, and to extend the applicability of SWAT for reach-scale analysis and management.     

The impact of land use change on soil water holding capacity and river flow modelling in the Nakambe River, Burkina-Faso

The annual hydrological regime of the Nakambe River shows substantial changes during the period 1955–1998 with a shift occurring around 1970. From 1970 to the mid-1990s, despite a reduction in rainfall and an increase in the number of dams in the basin, average runoff and maximum daily discharges increased. This paper reviews the hydrological behaviour of the Nakambe River from 1955 to 1998 and examines the potential role of land use change on soil water holding capacity (WHC) in producing the counter-intuitive change in runoff observed after 1970. We compare the results of two monthly hydrological models using different rainfall, potential evapotranspiration and WHC data sets. Model simulations with soil WHC values modified over time based upon historical maps of land use, are compared against simulations with a constant value for WHC. The extent of natural vegetation declined from 43 to 13% of the total basin area between 1965 and 1995, whilst the cultivated areas increased from 53 to 76% and the area of bare soil nearly tripled from 4 to 11%. The total reduction in WHC is estimated to range from 33 to 62% depending on the method used, either considering that the WHC values given by the FAO stand for the environmental situation in 1965 or before. There is a marked improvement in river flow simulation using the time-varying values of soil WHC. The paper ends with a discussion of the role of other factors such as surface runoff processes and groundwater trends in explaining the hydrological behaviour of the Nakambe River.