Modelling the spatial–temporal variability of spring snowmelt in an arctic catchment

Arctic spring landscapes are usually characterized by a mosaic of coexisting snow‐covered and bare ground patches. This phenomenon has major implications for hydrological processes, including meltwater production and runoff. Furthermore, as indicated by aircraft observations, it affects land‐surface–atmosphere exchanges, leading to a high degree of variability in surface energy terms during melt. The heterogeneity and related differences when certain parts of the landscape become snow free also affects the length of the growing season and the carbon cycle. Small‐scale variability in arctic snowmelt is addressed here by combining a spatially distributed end‐of‐winter snow cover with simulations of variable snowmelt energy balance factors for the small arctic catchment of Trail Valley Creek (63 km²). Throughout the winter, snow in arctic tundra basins is redistributed by frequent blowing snow events. Areas of above‐ or below‐average end‐of‐winter snow water equivalents were determined from land‐cover classifications, topography, land‐cover‐based snow surveys, and distributed surface wind‐field simulations. Topographic influences on major snowmelt energy balance factors (solar radiation and turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat) were modelled on a small‐scale (40 m) basis. A spatially variable complete snowmelt energy balance was subsequently computed and applied to the distributed snow cover, allowing the simulation of the progress of melt throughout the basin. The emerging patterns compared very well visually to snow cover observations from satellite images and aerial photographs. Results show the relative importance of variable end‐of‐winter snow cover, spatially distributed melt energy fluxes, and local advection processes for the development of a patchy snow cover. This illustrates that the consideration of these processes is crucial for an accurate determination of snow‐covered areas, as well as the location, timing, and amount of meltwater release from arctic catchments, and should, therefore, be included in hydrological models. Furthermore, the study shows the need for a subgrid parameterization of these factors in the land surface schemes of larger scale climate models. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological footprints of urban developments in the Lake Simcoe watershed,Canada: a combined paired‐catchment and change detection modelling approach

Urban sprawl and regional climate variability are major stresses on surface water resources in many places. The Lake Simcoe watershed (LSW) Ontario, Canada, is no exception. The LSW is predominantly agricultural but is experiencing rapid population growth because of its proximity to the Greater Toronto area. This has led to extensive land use changes that have impacted its water resources and altered run‐off patterns in some rivers draining to the lake. Here, we use a paired‐catchment approach, hydrological change detection modelling and remote sensing analysis of satellite images to evaluate the impacts of land use change on the hydrology of the LSW (1994 to 2008). Results show that urbanization increased up to 16% in Lovers Creek, the most urban‐impacted catchment. Annual run‐off from Lovers Creek increased from 239 to 442 mm/year in contrast to the reference catchment (Black River at Washago) where run‐off was relatively stable with an annual mean of 474 mm/year. Increased annual run‐off from Lovers Creek was not accompanied by an increase in annual precipitation. Discriminant function analysis suggests that early (1992–1997; pre‐major development) and late (2004–2009; fully urbanized) periods for Lovers Creek separated mainly based on model parameter sets related to run‐off flashiness and evapotranspiration. As a result, parameterization in either period cannot be used interchangeably to produce credible run‐off simulations in Lovers Creek because of greater scatter between the parameters in canonical space. Separation of early and late‐period parameter sets for the reference catchment was based on climate and snowmelt‐related processes. This suggests that regional climatic variability could be influencing hydrologic change in the reference catchment, whereas urbanization amplified the regional natural hydrologic changes in urbanizing catchments of the LSW. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the significance of crop‐type information for the simulation of catchment hydrology

Spatially distributed hydrological models require information on the land cover pattern, as it directly influences the generation of run‐off. However, it is not clear which detail of land cover information is suitable for simulating the catchment hydrology. A better understanding of the relationship between the land cover detail and the hydrological processes is therefore required as it would enhance a successful application of the hydrological model. This study investigates the relevance of accurate information about the crop types in the catchment for the simulation of run‐off, baseflow and evapotranspiration. Results reveal that adding knowledge about the crop type in the model simulation is redundant when area‐averaged water flux predictions are intended. On the contrary, when a spatial distribution of water flux predictions is desired, it is meaningful to increase the land cover detail because an increased heterogeneity in the land cover map induces an increased heterogeneity in the hydrological response and locally reduces the uncertainty in the model prediction up to 50%. To assess the land cover uncertainty and to locate the regions for which the reduction in prediction uncertainty is the highest, the thematic uncertainty map (constructed through fuzzy logic) is shown to be a useful tool. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the effects of triangulated terrain resolution on distributed hydrologic model response

Distributed hydrologic models based on triangulated irregular networks (TIN) provide a means for computational efficiency in small to large‐scale watershed modelling through an adaptive, multiple resolution representation of complex basin topography. Despite previous research with TIN‐based hydrology models, the effect of triangulated terrain resolution on basin hydrologic response has received surprisingly little attention. Evaluating the impact of adaptive gridding on hydrologic response is important for determining the level of detail required in a terrain model. In this study, we address the spatial sensitivity of the TIN‐based Real‐time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) in order to assess the variability in the basin‐averaged and distributed hydrologic response (water balance, runoff mechanisms, surface saturation, groundwater dynamics) with respect to changes in topographic resolution. Prior to hydrologic simulations, we describe the generation of TIN models that effectively capture topographic and hydrographic variability from grid digital elevation models. In addition, we discuss the sampling methods and performance metrics utilized in the spatial aggregation of triangulated terrain models. For a 64 km² catchment in northeastern Oklahoma, we conduct a multiple resolution validation experiment by utilizing the tRIBS model over a wide range of spatial aggregation levels. Hydrologic performance is assessed as a function of the terrain resolution, with the variability in basin response attributed to variations in the coupled surface–subsurface dynamics. In particular, resolving the near‐stream, variable source area is found to be a key determinant of model behaviour as it controls the dynamic saturation pattern and its effect on rainfall partitioning. A relationship between the hydrologic sensitivity to resolution and the spatial aggregation of terrain attributes is presented as an effective means for selecting the model resolution. Finally, the study highlights the important effects of terrain resolution on distributed hydrologic model response and provides insight into the multiple resolution calibration and validation of TIN‐based hydrology models. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity of streamflow simulation in the Delaware River Basin to forecasted land‐cover change for 2030 and 2060

In order to simulate the potential effect of forecasted land‐cover change on streamflow and water availability, there has to be confidence that the hydrologic model used is sensitive to small changes in land cover (<10%) and that this land‐cover change exceeds the inherent uncertainty in forecasted conditions. To investigate this, a 26‐year streamflow record was simulated for 33 basins (54–928 km²) in the Delaware River Basin using three dates of land cover: the 2011 National Land‐Cover Dataset (Homer, Fry, & Barnes, 2012 ), 2030 land‐cover conditions representing median values from 101 equally‐likely forecasts, and 2060 land‐cover conditions corresponding to the same iterations used to represent 2030. Streamflow was simulated using a process‐based hydrologic model that includes both pervious and impervious methods as parameterized by three land‐cover‐based hydrologic response units (HRUs)—forested, agricultural, and developed land. Small, but significant differences in streamflow magnitude, variability, and seasonality were seen among the three time periods—2011, 2030, and 2060. Temporal differences were discernible from the range of conditions simulated with 101 equally likely forecasts for 2030. Development was co‐located with the most frequent landscape components, as characterized by topographic wetness index, resulting in a change in hydrology for each HRU, highlighting that knowing the location of disturbance is key to understanding potential streamflow changes. These results show that streamflow simulation using regional calibration that incorporates land‐cover‐based HRUs can be sensitive to relatively small changes in land‐cover and that temporal trends resulting from land‐cover change can be isolated in order to evaluate other changes that might affect water resources.     

Landscape structure and use,climate, and water movement in the Mekong River basin

In this article the relative roles of precipitation and soil moisture in influencing runoff variability in the Mekong River basin are addressed. The factors controlling runoff generation are analysed in a calibrated macro‐scale hydrologic model, and it is demonstrated that, in addition to rainfall, simulated soil moisture plays a decisive role in establishing the timing and amount of generated runoff. Soil moisture is a variable with a long memory for antecedent hydrologic fluxes that is influenced by soil hydrologic parameters, topography, and land cover type. The influence of land cover on soil moisture implies significant hydrologic consequences for large‐scale deforestation and expansion of agricultural land. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of land cover change on flood peak discharges and runoff volumes: model estimates for the Nyando River Basin,Kenya

The impacts of historical land cover changes witnessed between 1973 and 2000 on the hydrologic response of the Nyando River Basin were investigated. The land cover changes were obtained through consistent classifications of selected Landsat satellite images. Their effects on runoff peak discharges and volumes were subsequently assessed using selected hydrologic models for runoff generation and routing available within the HEC‐HMS. Physically based parameters of the models were estimated from the land cover change maps together with a digital elevation model and soil datasets of the basin. Observed storm events for the simulation were selected and their interpolated spatial distributions obtained using the univariate ordinary Kriging procedure. The simulated flows from the 14 sub‐catchments were routed downstream afterwards to obtain the accrued effects in the entire river basin. Model results obtained generally revealed significant and varying increases in the runoff peak discharges and volumes within the basin. In the upstream sub‐catchments with higher rates of deforestation, increases between 30 and 47% were observed in the peak discharge. In the entire basin, however, the flood peak discharges and volumes increased by at least 16 and 10% respectively during the entire study period. The study successfully outlined the hydrological consequences of the eminent land cover changes and hence the need for sustainable land use and catchment management strategies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of dynamically downscaled reanalysis precipitation data for hydrological application

Skilful and reliable precipitation data are essential for seasonal hydrologic forecasting and generation of hydrological data. Although output from dynamic downscaling methods is used for hydrological application, the existence of systematic errors in dynamically downscaled data adversely affects the skill of hydrologic forecasting. This study evaluates the precipitation data derived by dynamically downscaling the global atmospheric reanalysis data by propagating them through three hydrological models. Hydrological models are calibrated for 28 watersheds located across the southeastern United States that is minimally affected by human intervention. Calibrated hydrological models are forced with five different types of datasets: global atmospheric reanalysis (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy Global Reanalysis and European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts 40‐year Reanalysis) at their native resolution; dynamically downscaled global atmospheric reanalysis at 10‐km grid resolution; stochastically generated data from weather generator; bias‐corrected dynamically downscaled; and bias‐corrected global reanalysis. The reanalysis products are considered as surrogates for large‐scale observations. Our study indicates that over the 28 watersheds in the southeastern United States, the simulated hydrological response to the bias‐corrected dynamically downscaled data is superior to the other four meteorological datasets. In comparison with synthetically generated meteorological forcing (from weather generator), the dynamically downscaled data from global atmospheric reanalysis result in more realistic hydrological simulations. Therefore, we conclude that dynamical downscaling of global reanalysis, which offers data for sufficient number of years (in this case 22 years), although resource intensive, is relatively more useful than other sources of meteorological data with comparable period in simulating realistic hydrological response at watershed scales. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of grid resolution on the integrated and distributed response of a coupled surface–subsurface hydrological model for the des Anglais catchment,Quebec

Digital elevation models (DEMs) at different resolutions (180, 360, and 720 m) are used to examine the impact of different levels of landscape representation on the hydrological response of a 690‐km² catchment in southern Quebec. Frequency distributions of local slope, plan curvature, and drainage area are calculated for each grid size resolution. This landscape analysis reveals that DEM grid size significantly affects computed topographic attributes, which in turn explains some of the differences in the hydrological simulations. The simulations that are then carried out, using a coupled, process‐based model of surface and subsurface flow, examine the effects of grid size on both the integrated response of the catchment (discharge at the main outlet and at two internal points) and the distributed response (water table depth, surface saturation, and soil water storage). The results indicate that discharge volumes increase as the DEM is coarsened, and that coarser DEMs are also wetter overall in terms of water table depth and soil water storage. The reasons for these trends include an increase in the total drainage area of the catchment for larger DEM cell sizes, due to aggregation effects at the boundary cells of the catchment, and to a decrease in local slope and plan curvature variations, which in turn limits the capacity of the watershed to transmit water downslope and laterally. The results obtained also show that grid resolution effects are less pronounced during dry periods when soil moisture dynamics are mostly controlled by vertical fluxes of evaporation and percolation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of lateral flow and spatial scaling on the simulation of semi‐arid urban land surfaces in an integrated hydrologic and land surface model

Understanding and representing hydrologic fluxes in the urban environment is challenging because of fine scale land cover heterogeneity and lack of coherent scaling relationships. Here, the impact of urban land cover heterogeneity, scale, and configuration on the hydrologic and surface energy budget (SEB) is assessed using an integrated, coupled land surface/hydrologic model at high spatial resolutions. Archetypes of urban land cover are simulated at varying resolutions using both the National Land Cover Database (NLCD; 30 m) and an ultra high‐resolution land cover dataset (0.6 m). The analysis shows that the impact of highly organized, yet heterogeneous, land cover typical of the urban domain can cause large variations in hydrologic and energy fluxes within areas of similar land cover. The lateral flow processes that occur within each simulation create variations in overland flow of up to ±200% and ±4% in evapotranspiration. The impact on the SEB is smaller and largely restricted to the wet season for our semi‐arid forcing scenarios. Finally, we find that this seasonal bias, predominantly caused by lateral flow, is displaced by a systematic diurnal bias at coarser resolutions caused by deficiencies in the method used for scaling of land surface and hydrologic parameters. As a result of this research, we have produced land surface parameters for the widely used NLCD urban land cover types. This work illustrates the impact of processes that remain unrepresented in traditional high‐resolutions land surface models and how they may affect results and uncertainty in modeling of local water resources and climate. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating hydrologic effects of spatial and temporal patterns of forest canopy change using numerical modelling

Although hydrologic responses to land cover changes are often studied using a paired watershed approach, it is not feasible to assess the hydrological effects of many different patterns of land cover alteration by empirical studies alone. An alternative is to use well validated, spatially explicit, physically based numerical models to estimate watershed storage and flux dynamics. The objectives of this study were to assess the sensitivity of watershed flow regimes to several spatial and temporal patterns of forest harvest and recovery in a snow‐dominated mountain watershed. The Distributed Hydrology Soil‐Vegetation Model (DHSVM) was parameterized using 1998–2007 climate data for the 28‐km² Mica Creek Experimental Watershed (MCEW), a headwater catchment in the inland Pacific Northwest. The modelling experiment indicated that clear‐cutting the entire watershed would increase runoff volume by 79% and 5^th percentile flows by 68%. Hydrologic recovery resulting from forest regeneration after clear‐cut harvesting is expected to take up to 25 years to return to baseline conditions, and 50 years to fully recover to preharvest conditions. A more realistic harvesting scenario where the watershed was gradually harvested in a series of clear‐cut blocks allowing for subsequent regeneration to occur was also assessed. This approach reduced the magnitude of hydrologic alteration. Analysis of several other scenarios, defined by aspect, elevation, and distance to the stream network, revealed that flow regime was more sensitive to the amount of alteration rather than pattern and landscape position of disturbance. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling of wildfire impacts on catchment hydrology applied to two case studies

We used a conceptual modelling approach on two western Canadian mountainous catchments that were burned in separate wildfires in 2003 to explore the potential of using modelling approaches to generalize post‐wildfire catchment hydrology in cases where pre‐wildfire hydrologic data were present or absent. The Fishtrap Creek case study (McLure fire, British Columbia) had a single gauged catchment with both pre‐fire and post‐fire data, whereas the Lost Creek case study (Lost Ck. fire, Alberta) had several instrumented burned and reference catchments providing streamflows and climate data only for the post‐wildfire period. Wildfire impacts on catchment hydrology were assessed by comparing pre‐wildfire and post‐wildfire model calibrated parameter sets for Fishtrap Creek (Fishtrap Ck.) and the calibrated parameters of two burned (South York Ck. and Lynx Ck.) and two unburned (Star Ck. and North York Ck.) catchments for Lost Ck. Model predicted streamflows for burned catchments were compared with unburned catchments (pre‐fire in the case of Fishtrap Ck. and unburned in the case of the Lost Ck.). Similarly, model predicted streamflows from unburned catchments were compared with burned catchments (post‐fire in the case of Fishtrap Ck. and burned in the case of the Lost Ck.). For Fishtrap Ck., different model parameters and streamflow behaviour were observed for pre‐wildfire and post‐wildfire conditions. However, the burned and unburned model results from the Lost Ck. wildfire did not show differing streamflow responses to the wildfire. We found that this hydrological modelling approach is suitable where pre‐wildfire and post‐wildfire data are available but may provide limited additional insights where pre‐disturbance hydrologic data are unavailable. This may in part be because the conceptual modelling approach does not represent the physical catchment processes, whereas a physically based model may still provide insights into catchment hydrological response in these situations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improving the degree-day method for sub-daily melt simulations with physically-based diurnal variations

This paper proposes a new extension of the classical degree-day snowmelt model applicable to hourly simulations for regions with limited data and adaptable to a broad range of spatially-explicit hydrological models. The snowmelt schemes have been tested with a point measurement dataset at the Cotton Creek Experimental Watershed (CCEW) in British Columbia, Canada and with a detailed dataset available from the Dranse de Ferret catchment, an extensively monitored catchment in the Swiss Alps. The snowmelt model performance is quantified with the use of a spatially-explicit model of the hydrologic response. Comparative analyses are presented with the widely-known, grid-based method proposed by Hock which combines a local, temperature-index approach with potential radiation. The results suggest that a simple diurnal cycle of the degree-day melt parameter based on minimum and maximum temperatures is competitive with the Hock approach for sub-daily melt simulations. Advantages of the new extension of the classical degree-day method over other temperature-index methods include its use of physically-based, diurnal variations and its ability to be adapted to data-constrained hydrological models which are lumped in some nature.     

Hydrologic‐response simulations for the North Fork of Caspar Creek: second‐growth,clear‐cut,new‐growth,and cumulative watershed effect scenarios

This study demonstrates that comprehensive hydrologic‐response simulation can be a useful tool for studying cumulative watershed effects. The simulations reported here were conducted with the Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM). The location of the 473 ha study site is the North Fork of the Caspar Creek Experimental Watershed, near Fort Bragg, California. Existing information from a long‐term monitoring programme and new soil‐hydraulic property measurements made for this study were used to parameterize InHM. Long‐term continuous wet‐season simulations were conducted for the North Fork catchments and main stem for second‐growth, clear‐cut and new‐growth scenarios. The simulation results show that the increases and decreases, respectively, for throughfall and potential evapotranspiration related to clear‐cutting had quantifiable impacts on the simulated hydrologic response at both the catchment and watershed scales. Model performance was best for the new‐growth simulation scenarios. To improve upon the simulations reported here would require additional soil‐hydraulic property information from across the study area. Although principally focused on the integrated hydrologic response, the effort reported here demonstrates the potential for characterizing distributed responses with physics‐based simulation. The search for a comprehensive understanding of hydrologic response will require both data‐intensive discovery and concept‐development simulation, from both integrated and distributed perspectives. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of antecedent conditions on simulations of a flood in a mountain headwater basin

A devastating flood struck Southern Alberta in late June 2013, with much of its streamflow generation in the Front Ranges of the Rocky Mountains, west of Calgary. To better understand streamflow generation processes and their sensitivity to initial conditions, a physically based hydrological model was developed using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) to simulate the flood for the Marmot Creek Research Basin (~9.4 km²). The modular model includes major cold and warm season hydrological processes including snow redistribution, sublimation, melt, runoff over frozen and unfrozen soils, evapotranspiration, subsurface runoff on hillslopes, groundwater recharge and discharge and streamflow routing. Uncalibrated simulations were conducted for eight hydrological years and generally matched streamflow observations well, with a NRMSD of 52%, small model bias (?3%) and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.71. The model was then used to diagnose the responses of hydrological processes in 2013 flood from different ecozones in Marmot Creek: alpine, treeline, montane forest and large and small forest clearings to better understand spatial variations in the flood runoff generation mechanisms. To examine the sensitivity to antecedent conditions, ‘virtual’ flood simulations were conducted using a week (17 to 24 June 2013) of flood meteorology imposed on the meteorology of the same period in other years (2005 to 2012), or switched with the meteorology of one week in different months (May to July) of 2013. Sensitivity to changing precipitation and land cover was assessed by varying the precipitation amount during the flood and forest cover and soil storage capacity in forest ecozone. The results show that runoff efficiency increases rapidly with antecedent snowpack and soil moisture storage with the highest runoff response to rainfall from locations in the basin where there are recently melted or actively melting snowpacks and resulting high soil moisture or frozen soils. The impact of forest canopy on flooding is negligible, but flood peak doubles if forest canopy removal is accompanied by 50% reduction in water storage capacity in the basin. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bayesian uncertainty analysis in hydrological modeling associated with watershed subdivision level: a case study of SLURP model applied to the Xiangxi River watershed,China

Uncertainty analysis in hydrological modeling would help to better implement decision-making related to water resources management, which relies heavily on hydrologic simulations. However, an important concern will be raised over the uncertainty associated with watershed subdivision broadly applied in distributed/semi-distributed hydrological models since scale issues would significantly affect model performance, and thus, lead to dramatic variations in simulations. To fully understand the uncertainty associated with watershed subdivision level, however, is still a tough work confronting researchers because of complex modeling processes and high computation requirements. In this study, we analyzed this uncertainty within a formal Bayesian framework using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method based on Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. In a case study using the semi-distributed land use-based runoff processes hydrologic model in the Xiangxi River watershed, results showed that the variation in the simulated discharges due to parameter uncertainty was much smaller than that due to parameter and model uncertainty under different watershed subdivision levels defined using aggregated simulation areas (ASAs). However, the posterior probability distribution of model parameters varied in response to subdivision levels, and four parameters (i.e. maximum infiltration rate, retention constant for slow store, maximum capacity for slow store, and retention constant for fast store) were identified with smaller uncertainty. Although the uncertainty in the simulated discharge due to parameter and model uncertainty varied little across subdivisions, the simulation uncertainty only due to parameter uncertainty was found to be reduced through increasing the subdivisions. In addition, the coarsest subdivision level (7 ASAs) was not sufficient for obtaining satisfying simulations in the Xiangxi River watershed, but inappreciable improvement was achieved through increasing the level among finer subdivisions. Moreover, it was demonstrated that increasing subdivision level would have no advantage of improving the reliability of hydrological simulations beyond the threshold (45 ASAs). The findings of this research may shed light on the design of operational hydrological forecasting in the Three Gorges Reservoir region with profound socio-economic implications.     

Modelling the effects of permafrost loss on discharge from a wetland‐dominated,discontinuous permafrost basin

Permafrost degradation in the peat‐rich southern fringe of the discontinuous permafrost zone is catalysing substantial changes to land cover with expansion of permafrost‐free wetlands (bogs and fens) and shrinkage of forest‐dominated permafrost peat plateaux. Predicting discharge from headwater basins in this region depends upon understanding and numerically representing the interactions between storage and discharge within and between the major land cover types and how these interactions are changing. To better understand the implications of advanced permafrost thaw‐induced land cover change on wetland discharge, with all landscape features capable of contributing to drainage networks, the hydrological behaviour of a channel fen sub‐basin in the headwaters of Scotty Creek, Northwest Territories, Canada, dominated by peat plateau–bog complexes, was modelled using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform for the period of 2009 to 2015. The model construction was based on field water balance observations, and performance was deemed adequate when evaluated against measured water balance components. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the impact of progressive permafrost loss on discharge from the sub‐basin, in which all units of the sub‐basin have the potential to contribute to the drainage network, by incrementally reducing the ratio of wetland to plateau in the modelled sub‐basin. Simulated reductions in permafrost extent decreased total annual discharge from the channel fen by 2.5% for every 10% decrease in permafrost area due to increased surface storage capacity, reduced run‐off efficiency, and increased landscape evapotranspiration. Runoff ratios for the fen hydrological response unit dropped from 0.54 to 0.48 after the simulated 50% permafrost area loss with a substantial reduction of 0.47 to 0.31 during the snowmelt season. The reduction in peat plateau area resulted in decreased seasonal variability in discharge due to changes in the flow path routing, with amplified low flows associated with small increases in subsurface discharge, and decreased peak discharge with large reductions in surface run‐off.     

Response of hydrological processes to land‐cover and climate changes in Kejie watershed,south‐west China

Land‐cover/climate changes and their impacts on hydrological processes are of widespread concern and a great challenge to researchers and policy makers. Kejie Watershed in the Salween River Basin in Yunnan, south‐west China, has been reforested extensively during the past two decades. In terms of climate change, there has been a marked increase in temperature. The impact of these changes on hydrological processes required investigation: hence, this paper assesses aspects of changes in land cover and climate. The response of hydrological processes to land‐cover/climate changes was examined using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and impacts of single factor, land‐use/climate change on hydrological processes were differentiated. Land‐cover maps revealed extensive reforestation at the expense of grassland, cropland, and barren land. A significant monotonic trend and noticeable changes had occurred in annual temperature over the long term. Long‐term changes in annual rainfall and streamflow were weak; and changes in monthly rainfall (May, June, July, and September) were apparent. Hydrological simulations showed that the impact of climate change on surface water, baseflow, and streamflow was offset by the impact of land‐cover change. Seasonal variation in streamflow was influenced by seasonal variation in rainfall. The earlier onset of monsoon and the variability of rainfall resulted in extreme monthly streamflow. Land‐cover change played a dominant role in mean annual values; seasonal variation in surface water and streamflow was influenced mainly by seasonal variation in rainfall; and land‐cover change played a regulating role in this. Surface water is more sensitive to land‐cover change and climate change: an increase in surface water in September and May due to increased rainfall was offset by a decrease in surface water due to land‐cover change. A decrease in baseflow caused by changes in rainfall and temperature was offset by an increase in baseflow due to land‐cover change. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulated effect of a forest road on near‐surface hydrologic response: redux

In the work reported here the comprehensive physics‐based Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM) was employed to conduct both three‐ and two‐dimensional (3D and 2D) hydrologic‐response simulations for the small upland catchment known as C3 (located within the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest in Oregon). Results from the 3D simulations for the steep unchannelled C3 (i) identify subsurface stormflow as the dominant hydrologic‐response mechanism and (ii) show the effect of the down‐gradient forest road on both the surface and subsurface flow systems. Comparison of the 3D results with the 2D results clearly illustrates the importance of convergent subsurface flow (e.g. greater pore‐water pressures in the hollow of the catchment for the 3D scenario). A simple infinite‐slope model, driven by subsurface pore‐water pressures generated from the 3D and 2D hydrologic‐response simulations, was employed to estimate slope stability along the long‐profile of the C3 hollow axis. As expected, the likelihood of slope failure is underestimated for the lower pore pressures from the 2D hydrologic‐response simulation compared, in a relative sense, to the higher pore pressures from the 3D hydrologic response simulation. The effort reported herein provides a firm quantitative foundation for generalizing the effects that forest roads can have on near‐surface hydrologic response and slope stability at the catchment scale. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.