四川地区4级以上调制小震与5级以上中强地震的关系探讨

通过对四川地区1972年以来的地震目录进行挑选和分析,得到四川地区4级以上调制小震与5级以上中强地震的对应数据结果。在所发生的41组调制小震中只有14组对应发生了中强地震,这说明在四川地区调制小震与中强地震的对应关系不是太好。但是,调制小震与中强地震的发震地点间的距离对应相关却比较好,平均距离间隔为93．49千米;所对应的调制小震与中强地震的发震时间的时间间隔平均为17．5个月。     

On a more precise stokes' series

Summary A relation is established between coefficients of an expansion of the gravitational potential into a series of Legendre's function of the second kind and coefficients of an expansion of gravity anomalies on the surface of the reference ellipsoid into a series of the same functions. This connection can be useful in geodetic computations which take into account the Earth's flattening.     

Do a bit more with convolution

Convolution is a form of superposition that efficiently deals with input varying arbitrarily in time or space. It works whenever superposition is applicable, that is, for linear systems. Even though convolution is well-known since the 19th century, this valuable method is still missing in most textbooks on ground water hydrology. This limits widespread application in this field. Perhaps most papers are too complex mathematically as they tend to focus on the derivation of analytical expressions rather than solving practical problems. However, convolution is straightforward with standard mathematical software or even a spreadsheet, as is demonstrated in the paper. The necessary system responses are not limited to analytic solutions; they may also be obtained by running an already existing ground water model for a single stress period until equilibrium is reached. With these responses, high-resolution time series of head or discharge may then be computed by convolution for arbitrary points and arbitrarily varying input, without further use of the model. There are probably thousands of applications in the field of ground water hydrology that may benefit from convolution. Therefore, its inclusion in ground water textbooks and courses is strongly needed.     

Better models are more effectively connected models

Water‐ and sediment‐transfer models are commonly used to explain or predict patterns in the landscape at scales different from those at which observations are available. These patterns are often the result of emergent properties that occur because processes of water and sediment transfer are connected in different ways. Recent advances in geomorphology suggest that it is important to consider, at a specific spatio‐temporal scale, the structural connectivity of system properties that control processes, and the functional connectivity resulting from the way those processes operate and evolve through time. We argue that a more careful consideration of how structural and functional connectivity are represented in models should lead to more robust models that are appropriate for the scale of application and provide results that can be upscaled. This approach is necessary because, notwithstanding the significant advances in computer power in recent years, many geomorphic models are still unable to represent the landscape in sufficient detail to allow all connectivity to emerge. It is important to go beyond the simple representation of structural connectivity elements and allow the dynamics of processes to be represented, for example by using a connectivity function. This commentary aims to show how a better representation of connectivity in models can be achieved, by considering the sorts of landscape features present, and whether these features can be represented explicitly in the model spatial structure, or must be represented implicitly at the subgrid scale. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Twentieth century agricultural drainage creates more erosive rivers

Rivers in watersheds dominated by agriculture throughout the US are impaired by excess sediment, a significant portion of which comes from non‐field, near‐channel sources. Both land‐use and climate have been implicated in altering river flows and thereby increasing stream‐channel erosion and sediment loading. In the wetland‐rich landscapes of the upper Mississippi basin, 20th century crop conversions have led to an intensification of artificial drainage, which is now a critical component of modern agriculture. At the same time, much of the region has experienced increased annual rainfall. Uncertainty in separating these drivers of streamflow fuels debate between agricultural and environmental interests on responsibility and solutions for excess riverine sediment. To disentangle the effects of climate and land‐use, we compared changes in precipitation, crop conversions, and extent of drained depressional area in 21 Minnesota watersheds over the past 70 years. Watersheds with large land‐use changes had increases in seasonal and annual water yields of >50% since 1940. On average, changes in precipitation and crop evapotranspiration explained less than one‐half of the increase, with the remainder highly correlated with artificial drainage and loss of depressional areas. Rivers with increased flow have experienced channel widening of 10–40% highlighting a source of sediment seldom addressed by agricultural best management practices. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does more mean less in epicentre estimation?

The epicentres of explosions at two test sites – Balapan (Shagan River), Former Soviet Union and Lop Nor, China – are estimated using the onset times of P from only three or four array stations at teleseismic distances. The epicentres of the explosions are known to within about 1 km from studies that make use of information from satellite imagery; these estimates are taken to be the true epicentres. With the true epicentres, differences between the true travel times and the times from travel-time tables are estimated. The differences include a component – path effects – that results in epicentre bias. Comparing our estimates using three or four stations with the true epicentres shows that with correction for path effects most of the epicentres are within 5 km of true and even without correction most estimated epicentres are within 10 km of true. The results confirm the conclusion of Evernden that if reading error in P times has a standard deviation of a few tenths of a second, reliable epicentres can be obtained given readings from only a few stations. This implies, what has been noted by others, that for epicentre estimation, better results can be obtained with a few well read P times from a constant network of the most reliable and sensitive stations, than by using uncritically all the available times. Even without correction for path effects none of the explosions (with times free from possible clock errors) falls outside a circular 1000 km² region; 1000 km² being the search area allowed for an on-site inspection under the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. The results suggest that rather than try and calibrate the whole of the International Monitoring System, being set up to verify the Test Ban, it would be better initially to concentrate on calibrating the few stations with the longest recording history and lowest detection thresholds.     

Variant of more accurate determination of the locations of shortwave radio emission sources

The paper discusses how the trajectory calculation method can be used to solve the problem of locality determination of shortwave (SW) emission sources. The dependence of the electron concentration on the coordinates is specified using the SPIM model; it is corrected using the ionospheric solar activity index, which is specified with the help of maps of total electron content. We suggested a variant of how a regional map of the total electron content can be plotted according to measurements of signals from GLONASS/GPS navigation systems. It is shown that the trajectory calculation method, coupled with an adjustable ionospheric model, allows for a more exact locality determination of SW radio emission sources.     

Climate change and fluvial flood risk in the UK: more of the same?

The potential impact of climate change on fluvial flooding is receiving considerable scientific and political interest thanks to evidence from climate model projections and a widely held belief that flood risk may be increasing at European levels. This review compares published work on historical trends in UK rainfall and river flow records with high‐resolution regional climate change projections, and attempts to reconcile apparent differences between the two. Attention is focused on the techniques used for climate change detection and attribution, as well as the potential confounding effects of land‐use change. International and domestic efforts to build adaptive capacity rest on improved quantification of uncertainty in flood risk at very local, catchment and regional scales. This will involve further research to better integrate climate and land‐management interactions, to understand changes in the dependence between different flood generating mechanisms, and to improve the characterization and communication of uncertainty at all stages of analysis. Resources are also needed to ensure that latest, but still uncertain, science is presented in an appropriate form to underpin policy development and is translated into sensible guidance for practitioners. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

切实加强地震研究基础性工作是实现预测更加科学的必由之路

根据我国大陆强震的特点，强调加强地震基础研究工作的重要性。提出应在明确的科学思路引导下，有计划地开展基础性的探测工作，不断积累数据，深化对孕震构造环境和大陆破坏性地震发生机理的认识，以期达到“长期预报更加科学，中期预报成功率不断提高，短期预报有新的突破”的目标。     

华北地区MS≥6.5级地震震源断层参数的研究

本文根据地震和地震构造等资料，研究华北地区公元1300年以来MS≥6.5级地震的发震断裂的基本参数.利用1966年以来隆尧、海城、渤海和唐山等有仪器记录的地震的相关参数进行回归分析得出了地震烈度Ⅷ度区长轴长度与余震区长轴长度的回归关系式及震级与震源体破裂长度的回归关系式.用余震区长轴长度代替震源体的破裂长度，从而给出各次地震的震源断层破裂长度.利用地震测深的地壳结构构造剖面、地震序列的震源分布、壳内低速层和地壳上部的构造、盆地构造与居里面分布和已知地震震源分布等资料推断了震源破裂的上下界.基于一定的合理假定推导出了断层滑动角的估计方法，并应用于本研究区，得出了各次事件的断层滑动角.     

A more precise mechanical theory of askania gravity meters

Summary The measuring systems of Askania gravity meters are assumed to have 3 degrees of freedom. The axis of rotation of the beam can also be displaced in the vertical and horizontal directions. The equations of equilibrium of this system (25)–(27) were used to derive the expressions for the effect of displacing the calibration ball, for the scale equation and for the sensitivity of the gravity meter. Equations (33), (34) and (39) refer to gravity meters with a photoelectric transducer, and Eqs (46), (47) and (49) to gravity meters with a capacitive transducer.

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uum umaum au n¶rt;naam 3 mnu ¶rt;. au aa m m nam mua uuma anau. au au m um (25)–(27) ¶rt; au ¶rt; ¶rt;mu nu au aua, ¶rt; aua a u ¶rt; mummuauma. aum mmuu mm m au (33), (34), (39), ¶rt;aum m mm au (46), (47), (49).