Geometric and structural river channel complexity and the prediction of urban inundation

Recent research modelling floodplain inundation processes has concentrated on issues surrounding the level of physical, topographical, and numerical solver complexity needed to represent floodplain flows adequately. However, during flooding episodes the channel typically still conveys the bulk of the flow. Despite this, the effect of channel physical processes and topographic complexity on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this, the impact of channel cross‐section geometry, channel long‐profile variability and the representation of hydraulic structures on floodplain inundation are explored using a coupled dynamic 1D‐2D hydraulic model (ESTRY‐TUFLOW) of the Carlisle floods of January 2005. These simulations are compared with those from a simplified 1D‐2D model, LISFLOOD‐FP. In this case, the simpler model is sufficient to simulate the far‐field peak flood elevations. However, comparison of channel dynamics suggests that the full shallow water approximation used by ESTRY‐TUFLOW gives a more robust performance when models calibrated on maximum floodplain water elevations are used to predict channel water levels. Examination of the response of ESTRY‐TUFLOW to variations in channel geometric complexity shows that downstream variations in the channel long profile are more important than cross‐section variability for obtaining a dataset‐independent calibration. The results show, in general, that as model physical complexity is increased, calibrated parameters become less ‘effective’, and as a consequence, the values of performance measures reduce less rapidly away from the optimum value. This means that often more physically complex models are less likely to yield different optimum parameter values when calibrated on different datasets resulting in a more robust numerical model. Lastly, the inclusion of bridge structures can simulate substantial local backwatering effects, but the variability in observed water and wrack marks is such that it is not possible to discern the effect of the bridges at this site in the post‐event observational dataset. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interactions between subgrid‐scale resolution,feature representation and grid‐scale resolution in flood inundation modelling

Numerical modelling of flood inundation over large and complex floodplains often requires mesh resolutions coarser than the structural features (e.g. buildings) that are known to influence the inundation process. Recent research has shown that this mismatch is not well represented by conventional roughness treatments, but that finer‐scale features can be represented through porosity‐based subgrid‐scale treatments. This paper develops this work by testing the interactions between feature representation, subgrid‐scale resolution and mesh resolution. It uses as the basis for this testing a 2D diffusion‐based flood inundation model which is applied to a 2004 flood event in a topologically complex upland floodplain in northern England. This study formulated simulations with different grid mesh resolution and subgrid mesh ratio. The sensitivity of the model to mesh resolution and roughness specification was investigated. Model validation and verification suggest that the subgrid treatment with higher subgrid mesh ratio can give much improved predictions of flood propagation, in particular, in terms of the predicted water depth. This study also highlighted the limitation of using at‐a‐point in time inundation extent for validation of flood models of this type. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sub-grid scale parameterisation of 2D hydrodynamic models of inundation in the urban area

This paper presents preliminary results from a study considering the parameterisation of coarse-grid 2D flood models to take into account sub-grid scale flow patterns occurring in the urban area. A simulation of a severe flood in an urbanized coastal floodplain is first run using a fine grid that can resolve the flow around and between buildings. Next, the same model is run again using the same underlying topography, although stripped from any buildings, and a set of 7 values of the roughness parameter (Manning’s n), all larger than (or equal to) the value used in the original run. A further set of simulations is carried out using a five-fold increased grid cell size. It is found that while it may be possible to model the overall effects of the buildings using strongly increased roughness parameter values, using a coarse grid otherwise has implications related to the loss of information about the site topography that results in flood flow routes being incorrectly modelled.     

The use of remotely sensed land cover to derive floodplain friction coefficients for flood inundation modelling

Remotely sensed land cover was used to generate spatially‐distributed friction coefficients for use in a two‐dimensional model of flood inundation. Such models are at the forefront of research into the prediction of river flooding. Standard practice, however, is to use single (static) friction coefficients on both the channel and floodplain, which are varied in a calibration procedure to provide a “best fit” to a known inundation extent. Spatially‐distributed friction provides a physically grounded estimate of friction that does not require fitting to a known inundation extent, but which can be fitted if desired. Remote sensing offers the opportunity to map these friction coefficients relatively straightforwardly and for low cost. Inundation was predicted using the LISFLOOD‐FP model for a reach on the River Nene, UK. Friction coefficients were produced from land cover predicted from Landsat TM imagery using both ML and fuzzy c‐means classifiction. The elevetion data used were from combined contour and differential global positioning system (GPS) elevation data. Predicted inundation using spatially‐distributed and static friction were compared. Spatially‐distributed friction had the greatest effect on the timing of flood inundation, but a small effect on predicted inundation extent. The results indicate that spatially‐distributed friction should be considered where the timing of initial flooding (e.g. for early warning) is important. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bayesian updating of flood inundation likelihoods conditioned on flood extent data

Previously we have detailed an application of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) procedure to estimate spatially distributed uncertainty in models conditioned against binary pattern data contained in flood inundation maps. This method was applied to two sites where a single consistent synoptic image of inundation extent was available to test the simulation performance of the method. In this paper, we extend this to examine the predictive performance of the method for a reach of the River Severn, west‐central England. Uniquely for this reach, consistent inundation images of two major floods have been acquired from spaceborne synthetic aperture radars, as well as a high‐resolution digital elevation model derived using laser altimetry. These data thus allow rigorous split sample testing of the previous GLUE application. To achieve this, Monte Carlo analyses of parameter uncertainty within the GLUE framework are conducted for a typical hydraulic model applied to each flood event. The best 10% of parameter sets identified in each analysis are then used to map uncertainty in flood extent predictions using the method previously proposed for both an independent validation data set and a design flood. Finally, methods for combining the likelihood information derived from each Monte Carlo ensemble are examined to determine whether this has the potential to reduce uncertainty in spatially distributed measures of flood risk for a design flood. The results show that for this reach and these events, the method previously established is able to produce sharply defined flood risk maps that compare well with observed inundation extent. More generally, we show that even single, poor‐quality inundation extent images are useful in constraining hydraulic model calibrations and that values of effective friction parameters are broadly stationary between the two events simulated, most probably reflecting their similar hydraulics. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatially distributed observations in constraining inundation modelling uncertainties

The performance of two modelling approaches for predicting floodplain inundation is tested using observed flood extent and 26 distributed floodplain level observations for the 1997 flood event in the town of Usti nad Orlici in the Czech Republic. Although the one‐dimensional hydrodynamic model and the integrated one‐ and two‐dimensional model are shown to perform comparably against the flood extent data, the latter shows better performance against the distributed level observations. Comparable performance in predicting the extent of inundation is found to be primarily as a result of the urban reach considered, with flood extent constrained by road and railway embankments. Uncertainty in the elevation model used in both approaches is shown to have little effect on the reliability in predicting flood extent, with a greater impact on the ability in predicting the distributed level observations. These results show that reliability of flood inundation modelling in urban reaches, where flood risk assessment is of more interest than in more rural reaches, can be improved greatly if distributed observations of levels in the floodplain are used in constraining model uncertainties. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying the relative impact of hydrological and hydraulic modelling parameterizations on uncertainty of inundation maps

ABSTRACT

Flood risk management strongly relies on inundation models for river basin zoning in flood-prone and risk-free areas. Floodplain zoning is significantly affected by the diverse and concurrent uncertainties that characterize the modelling chain used for producing inundation maps. In order to quantify the relative impact of the uncertainties linked to a lumped hydrological (rainfall–runoff) model and a FLO-2D hydraulic model, a Monte Carlo procedure is proposed in this work. The hydrological uncertainty is associated with the design rainfall estimation method, while the hydraulic model uncertainty is associated with roughness parameterization. This uncertainty analysis is tested on the case study of the Marta coastal catchment in Italy, by comparing the different frequency, extent and depth of inundation simulations associated with varying rainfall forcing and/or hydraulic model roughness realizations. The results suggest a significant predominance of the hydrological uncertainty with respect to the hydraulic one on the overall uncertainty associated with the simulated inundation maps.     

Unstructured grid generation using LiDAR data for urban flood inundation modelling

Inundation disasters, caused by sudden water level rise or rapid flow, occur frequently in various parts of the world. Such catastrophes strike not only in thinly populated flood plains or farmland but also in highly populated villages or urban areas. Inundation of the populated areas causes severe damage to the economy, injury, and loss of life; therefore, a proper management scheme for the disaster has to be developed. To predict and manage such adversity, an understanding of the dynamic processes of inundation flow is necessary because risk estimation is performed based on inundation flow information. In this study, we developed a comprehensive method to conduct detailed inundation flow simulations for a populated area with quite complex topographical features using LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data. Detailed geospatial information including the location and shape of each building was extracted from the LiDAR data and used for the grid generation. The developed approach can distinguish buildings from vegetation and treat them differently in the flow model. With this method, a fine unstructured grid can be generated representing the complicated urban land features precisely without exhausting labour for data preparation. The accuracy of the generated grid with different grid spacing and grid type is discussed and the optimal range of grid spacing for direct representation of urban topography is investigated. The developed method is applied to the estimation of inundation flows, which occurred in the basin of the Shin‐minato River. A detailed inundation flow structure is represented by the flow model, and the flow characteristics with respect to topographic features are discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi-method global sensitivity analysis of flood inundation models

Global sensitivity analysis is a valuable tool in understanding flood inundation models and deriving decisions on strategies to reduce model uncertainty. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis of a one-dimensional flood inundation model (HEC-RAS) on the River Alzette, Luxembourg, is presented. It is impossible to define sensitivity in a unique way and different methods can lead to a difference in ranking of importance of model factors. In this paper five different methods (Sobol, Kullback–Leibler entropy, Morris, regionalised sensitivity analysis and regression) are applied and the outcomes on selected examples compared. It is demonstrated that the different methods lead to completely different ranking of importance of the parameter factors and that it is impossible to draw firm conclusions about the relative sensitivity of different factors. Moreover, the uncertainty inherent in the sensitivity methods is highlighted.     

How much physical complexity is needed to model flood inundation?

Two‐dimensional flood inundation models are widely used tools for flood hazard mapping and an essential component of statutory flood risk management guidelines in many countries. Yet, we still do not know how much physical complexity a flood inundation model needs for a given problem. Here, three two‐dimensional explicit hydraulic models, which can be broadly defined as simulating diffusive, inertial or shallow water waves, have been benchmarked using test cases from a recent Environment Agency for England and Wales study, where results from industry models are also available. To ensure consistency, the three models were written in the same code and share subroutines for all but the momentum (flow) and time‐stepping calculations. The diffusive type model required much longer simulation times than the other models, whilst the inertia model was the quickest. For flows that vary gradually in time, differences in simulated velocities and depths due to physical complexity were within 10% of the simulations from a range of industry models. Therefore, for flows that vary gradually in time, it appears unnecessary to solve the full two‐dimensional shallow water equations. As expected, however, the simpler models were unable to simulate supercritical flows accurately. Finally, implications of the results for future model benchmarking studies are discussed in light of a number of subtle factors that were found to cause significant differences in simulations relative to the choice of model. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydraulic modelling of Athabasca Vallis,Mars

Abstract

Palaeohydraulic modelling is presented for Athabasca Vallis, the youngest known catastrophic flood channel on Mars. This modelling incorporates three significant advantages over previous modelling of Martian channels: a step-backwater hydraulic model; more accurate topography; and improved flood height indicators. The maximum modelled palaeodischarge is between 1 × 10⁶ and 2 × 10⁶m³s^?1 depending on the friction coefficient selected. An anomalously high palaeostage indicator suggests a region of ponded backwater in the channel in which streamlined forms were created through deposition, with the additional possibility of post-flood subsidence/lowering of the channel slope due to magma extrusion.     

A review of flood impact assessment approaches for underground infrastructures in urban areas: a focus on transport systems

ABSTRACT

Flooding events can produce significant disturbances in underground transport systems within urban areas and lead to economic and socioenvironmental well-known consequences, which can be worsened by variations in the occurrence of weather and climate extremes. A better comprehension of these impacts and their conditions is consequently needed. Hence, this paper presents a state-of-the-art literature review on flood impact assessment in “metro” systems, analysing their purposes and their shortcomings. This document shows the adaptation measures dealing with specific classes of pluvial flood damages, besides identifying prospective paths towards the application of suitable actions facing actual and projected hazards in metro systems worldwide.     

Assessing the impact of the hydraulic properties of a crusted soil on overland flow modelling at the field scale

Soil surface crusts are widely reported to favour Hortonian runoff, but are not explicitly represented in most rainfall‐runoff models. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of soil surface crusts on infiltration and runoff modelling at two spatial scales, i.e. the local scale and the plot scale. At the local scale, two separate single ring infiltration experiments are undertaken. The first is performed on the undisturbed soil, whereas the second is done after removal of the soil surface crust. The HYDRUS 2D two‐dimensional vertical infiltration model is then used in an inverse modelling approach, first to estimate the soil hydraulic properties of the crust and the subsoil, and then the effective hydraulic properties of the soil represented as a single uniform layer. The results show that the crust hydraulic conductivity is 10 times lower than that of the subsoil, thus illustrating the limiting role the crust has on infiltration. Moving up to the plot scale, a rainfall‐runoff model coupling the Richards equation to a transfer function is used to simulate Hortonian overland flow hydrographs. The previously calculated hydraulic properties are used, and a comparison is undertaken between a single‐layer and a double‐layer representation of the crusted soil. The results of the rainfall‐runoff model show that the soil hydraulic properties calculated at the local scale give acceptable results when used to model runoff at the plot scale directly, without any numerical calibration. Also, at the plot scale, no clear improvement of the results can be seen when using a double‐layer representation of the soil in comparison with a single homogeneous layer. This is due to the hydrological characteristics of Hortonian runoff, which is triggered by a rainfall intensity exceeding the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil surface. Consequently, the rainfall‐runoff model is more sensitive to rainfall than to the subsoil's hydrodynamic properties. Therefore, the use of a double‐layer soil model to represent runoff on a crusted soil does not seem necessary, as the increase of precision in the soil discretization is not justified by a better performance of the model. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probabilistic evaluation of flood hazard in urban areas using Monte Carlo simulation

The goal of the presented research was the derivation of flood hazard maps, using Monte Carlo simulation of flood propagation at an urban site in the UK, specifically an urban area of the city of Glasgow. A hydrodynamic model describing the propagation of flood waves, based on the De Saint Venant equations in two‐dimensional form capable of accounting for the topographic complexity of the area (preferential outflow paths, buildings, manholes, etc.) and for the characteristics of prevailing imperviousness typical of the urban areas, has been used to derive the hydrodynamic characteristics of flood events (i.e. water depths and flow velocities). The knowledge of the water depth distribution and of the current velocities derived from the propagation model along with the knowledge of the topographic characteristics of the urban area from digital map data allowed for the production of hazard maps based on properly defined hazard indexes. These indexes are evaluated in a probabilistic framework to overcome the classical problem of single deterministic prediction of flood extent for the design event and to introduce the concept of the likelihood of flooding at a given point as the sum of data uncertainty, model structural error and parameterization uncertainty. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integrating remote sensing observations of flood hydrology and hydraulic modelling

The further development of two-dimensional finite element models of river flood flow is currently constrained by a lack of data for rigorous parameterization and validation. Remote sensing techniques have the potential to overcome a number of these constraints thereby allowing a research design for model development. This is illustrated with reference to a case study of a two-dimensional finite element model applied to the Missouri River, Nebraska and compared with a synchronous Landsat TM image of flood inundation extent. The case study allows research needs for the integration of hydraulic modelling and remote sensing to be defined. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The topographic data source of digital terrain models as a key element in the accuracy of hydraulic flood modelling

The effects of the topographic data source and resolution on the hydraulic modelling of floods were analysed. Seven digital terrain models (DTMs) were generated from three different altimetric sources: a global positioning system (GPS) survey and bathymetry; high‐resolution laser altimetry data LiDAR (light detection and ranging); and vectorial cartography (1:5000). Hydraulic results were obtained, using the HEC‐RAS one‐dimensional model, for all seven DTMs. The importance of the DTM's accuracy on the hydraulic modelling results was analysed within three different hydraulic contexts: (1) the discharge and water surface elevation results from the hydraulic model; (2) the delineation of the flooded area; and (3) the relative sensitivity of the hydraulic model to changes in the Manning's n roughness coefficient. The contour‐based DTM was the least accurate with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 4·5 m in the determination of the water level and a variation of up to 50 per cent in the estimation of the inundated area of the floodplain. The GPS‐based DTM produced more realistic water surface elevation results and variations of up to 8 per cent in terms of the flooded area. The laser‐based model's RMSE for water level was 0·3 m, with the flooded area varying by less than 1 per cent. The LiDAR data also showed the greatest sensitivity to changes in the Manning's roughness coefficient. An analysis of the effect of mesh resolution indicated an influence on the delineation of the flooded area with variations of up to 7·3 per cent. In addition to determining the accuracy of the hydraulic modelling results produced from each DTM, an analysis of the time–cost ratio of each topographic data source illustrates that airborne laser scanning is a cost‐effective means of developing a DTM of sufficient accuracy, especially over large areas. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An automated routing methodology to enable direct rainfall in high resolution shallow water models

Recent high profile flood events have highlighted the need for hydraulic models capable of simulating pluvial flooding in urban areas. This paper presents a constant velocity rainfall routing scheme that provides this ability within the LISFLOOD‐FP hydraulic modelling code. The scheme operates in place of the shallow water equations within cells where the water depth is below a user‐defined threshold, enabling rainfall‐derived water to be moved from elevated features such as buildings or curbstones without causing instabilities in the solution whilst also yielding a reduction in the overall computational cost of the simulation. Benchmarking against commercial modelling packages using a pluvial and point‐source test case demonstrates that the scheme does not impede the ability of LISFLOOD‐FP to match both predicted depths and velocities of full shallow water models. The stability of the scheme in conditions unsuitable for traditional two‐dimensional hydraulic models is then demonstrated using a pluvial test case over a complex urban digital elevation model containing buildings. Deterministic single‐parameter sensitivity analyses undertaken using this test case show limited sensitivity of predicted water depths to both the chosen routing speed within a physically plausible range and values of the depth threshold parameter below 10 mm. Local instabilities can occur in the solution if the depth threshold is >10 mm, but such values are not required even when simulating extreme rainfall rates. The scheme yields a reduction in model runtime of ~25% due to the reduced number of cells for which the hydrodynamic equations have to be solved. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrometeorological analysis of the December 2008 flood in Rome

Abstract

Rome has been plagued by flooding since its foundation, and, in December 2008, the largest flood event over the past 20 years caused a fatality and more than €150 million in economic damage. Meteorological conditions associated with the December 2008 flooding are shown to be typical of flooding in the Tiber. The long record of discharge measurements of the Tiber River at the Ripetta station in downtown Rome was used to examine flood frequency for the Tiber, including assessment of the return interval of the December 2008 flood. Particular attention is given to examination of the stationarity assumption for flood peaks through change-point and trend analyses, quantile regression, and statistical modelling of the flood-peak distribution. Once anthropogenic changes linked to reservoir regulation of the Tiber River have been accounted for, the stationarity assumption holds and can be used for flood frequency analysis. We highlight the difficulties in detecting departures from the stationarity assumption due to climate change. In the current regime, the December 2008 flood event has a return period of the order of 10–20 years.

Citation Villarini, G., Smith, J.A., Napolitano, F. & Baeck, M.L. (2011) Hydrometeorological analyses of the December 2008 flood in Rome. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1150–1165.     

Large‐scale modelling of channel flow and floodplain inundation dynamics and its application to the Pantanal (Brazil)

For large‐scale sites, difficulties for applying coupled one‐dimensional (1D)/2D models for simulating floodplain inundation may be encountered related to data scarcity, complexity for establishing channel–floodplain connections, computational cost, long duration of floods and the need to represent precipitation and evapotranspiration processes. This paper presents a hydrologic simulation system, named SIRIPLAN, developed to accomplish this aim. This system is composed by a 1D hydrodynamic model coupled to a 2D raster‐based model, and by two modules to compute the vertical water balance over floodplain and the water exchanges between channel and floodplain. Results are presented for the Upper Paraguay River Basin (UPRB), including the Pantanal, one of the world's largest wetlands. A total of 3965 km of river channels and 140 000 km² of floodplains are simulated for a period of 11 years. Comparison of observed and calculated hydrographs at 15 gauging stations showed that the model was capable to simulate distinct, complex flow regimes along main channels, including channel‐floodplain interactions. The proposed system was also able to reproduce the Pantanal seasonal flood pulse, with estimated inundated areas ranging from 35 000 km² (dry period) to more than 120 000 km² (wet period). Floodplain inundation maps obtained with SIRIPLAN were consistent with previous knowledge of Pantanal dynamics, but comparison with inundation extent provided by a previous satellite‐based study indicates that permanently flooded areas may have been underestimated. The results obtained are promising, and further work will focus on improving vertical processes representation over floodplains and analysing model sensitivity to floodplain parameters, time step and precipitation estimates uncertainty. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.