Historical discharge measurements on the Middle Mississippi River,USA: no basis for ‘changing history’

This study tests the hypothesis that historical float‐based discharge measurements on the Mississippi River systematically over‐stated actual flood flows by 10% to > 30% relative to measurements using current meters. This assertion has been repeated over the past 25 years and recently has been used to adjust historical discharges used for flood‐frequency analysis. This study tests the hypothesis above using 2150 historical discharge measurements digitized from the three principal gauging stations on the Middle Mississippi River (MMR): data that include 626 float‐based discharges and 1516 meter‐based discharges, including 122 paired measurements. Multiple comparative tests show that the hypothesis above cannot be supported; if anything, the float‐based measurements slightly underestimate flows (not over‐estimate) over a broad range of discharges up to large floods. In response to the purported data bias above (‘changing history’; Dieckmann RJ, Dyhouse GR. 1998. Changing history at St. Louis—adjusting historic flows for frequency analysis. First Federal Inter‐Agency Hydrologic Modeling Conference, April 20–22, 1998. Las Vegas, NV; 4·31–4·36), historical flood discharges on the MMR have been modified, most by 10–20% and several by > 30%. These altered discharges are now being promulgated, in particular, through the Upper Mississippi River System Flow Frequency Study (UMRSFFS). New flow frequencies, flood profiles, and new flood maps from the UMRSFFS may significantly underestimate the actual flood hazard on the MMR if the original hydrologic data have been erroneously altered on the basis of an assumption of data bias. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Recent variation in reach‐scale bankfull discharge in the Lower Yellow River

Bankfull discharge is a key parameter in the context of river engineering and geomorphology, as an indicator of flood discharge capacity in alluvial rivers, and varying in response to the incoming flow and sediment regimes. Bankfull channel dimensions have significantly adjusted along the Lower Yellow River (LYR) due to recent channel degradation, caused by the operation of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir, which has led to longitudinal variability in cross‐sectional bankfull discharges. Therefore, it is more representative to describe the flood discharge capacity of the LYR, using the concept of reach‐averaged bankfull discharge. Previous simple mean methods to estimate reach‐scale bankfull discharge cannot meet the condition of flow continuity or account for the effect of different spacing between two sections. In this study, a general method to calculate cross‐sectional bankfull discharge using the simulated stage‐discharge relation is outlined briefly, and an integrated method is then proposed for estimating reach‐scale bankfull discharge. The proposed method integrates a geometric mean based on the log‐transformation with a weighted average based on the spacing between two consecutive sections, which avoids the shortcomings of previous methods. The post‐flood reach‐scale bankfull discharges in three different channel‐pattern reaches of the LYR were estimated annually during the period from 1999 to 2010 using the proposed method, based on surveyed post‐flood profiles at 91 sedimentation sections and the measured hydrological data at seven hydrometric sections. The calculated results indicate that: (i) the estimated reach‐scale bankfull discharges can effectively represent the flood discharge capacity of different reaches, with their ranges of variation being less than those of typical cross‐sectional bankfull discharges; and (ii) the magnitude of the reach‐scale bankfull discharge in each reach can respond well to the accumulative effect of incoming flow and sediment conditions. Finally, empirical relationships for different reaches in the LYR were developed between the reach‐scale bankfull discharge and the previous four‐year average discharge and incoming sediment coefficient during flood seasons, with relatively high correlation coefficients between them being obtained, and the reach‐scale bankfull discharges in different reaches predicted by the delayed response model were also presented for a comparison. These relations for the prediction of reach‐scale bankfull discharges were validated using the cross‐sectional profiles and hydrological data measured in 2011. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Increasing risk and uncertainty of flooding in the Mississippi River basin

Flooding in the Mississippi basin has become increasingly uncertain, and a succession of progressively higher, peak annual water levels is observed at many sites. Many record levels set in the central USA by the huge 1993 flood have already been superseded. Methodology developed elsewhere that recognizes trends of river stages is used to estimate present‐day flood risk at 27 sites in the Mississippi basin that have >100 years of continuous stage record. Unlike official estimates that are fundamentally based on discharge, this methodology requires only data on river stage. A novel plot linearizes the official flood levels that are indirectly derived from the complex, discharge‐based calculations and demonstrates that the neglect of trends has resulted in the effective use of undersized means and standard deviations in flood risk analysis. A severe consequence is that official “base flood” levels are underestimated by 0.4 to 2 m at many sites in the central USA.     

Flood hydrology and geomorphic effectiveness in the central Appalachians

This paper compares hydrologic records and geomorphic effects of several historic floods in the central Appalachian region of the eastern United States. The most recent of these, occurring in November 1985, was the largest ever recorded in West Virginia, with peak discharges exceeding the estimated 500-year discharge at eight of eleven stations in the South Branch Potomac River and Cheat River basins. Geomorphic effects on valley floors included some of the most severe and widespread floodplain erosion ever documented and exceeded anything seen in previous floods, even though comparable or greater rainfall and unit discharge have been observed several times in the region over the past 50 years. Comparison of discharge-drainage area plots suggests that the intensity and spatial scale of the November 1985 flood were optimal for erosion of valley floors along the three forks of the South Branch Potomac River. However, when a larger geographic area is considered, rainfall totals and discharge-drainage area relationships are insufficient predictors of geomorphic effectiveness for valley floors at drainage areas of 250 to 2500 km². Unit stream power was calculated for the largest recorded flood discharge at 46 stations in the central Appalachians. Maximum values of unit stream power are developed in bedrock canyons, where the boundaries are resistant to erosion and the flow cross-section cannot adjust its width to accommodate extreme discharges. The largest value was 2570 W m^?2; record discharge at most stations was associated with unit stream power values less than 300 W m^?2, but more stations exceeded this value in the November 1985 flood than in the other floods that were analysed. Unit stream power at indirect discharge measurement sites near areas experiencing severe erosion in this and other central Appalachian floods generally exceeded 300 W m^?2; reach-average values of 200-500 W m^?2 were calculated for valleys where erosion damage was most widespread. Despite these general trends, unit stream power is not a reliable predictor of geomorphic change for individual sites. Improved understanding of flood impacts will require more detailed investigation of interactions between local site characteristics and patterns of flood flow over the valley floor.     

To what extent have changes in channel capacity contributed to flood hazard trends in England and Wales?

The frequency of floods has been projected to increase across Europe in the coming decades due to extreme weather events. However, our understanding of how flood frequency is affected by geomorphic changes in river channel capacity remains limited. This paper seeks to quantify the influence of trends in channel capacity on flood hazards. Measuring and predicting the effect of geomorphic changes on freshwater flooding is essential to mitigate the potential effects of major floods through informed planning and response. Hydrometric records from 41 stream gauging stations were used to measure trends in the flood stage (i.e. water surface elevation) frequency above the 1% annual exceedance threshold. The hydrologic and geomorphic components of flood hazard were quantified separately to determine their contribution to the total trend in flood stage frequency. Trends in cross‐sectional flow area and mean flow velocity were also investigated at the same flood stage threshold. Results showed that a 10% decrease (or increase) in the channel capacity would result in an increase (or decrease) in the flood frequency of approximately 1.5 days per year on average across these 41 sites. Widespread increases in the flood hazard frequency were amplified through both hydrologic and geomorphic effects. These findings suggest that overlooking the potential influence of changing channel capacity on flooding may be hazardous. Better understanding and quantifying the influence of geomorphic trends on flood hazard will provide key insight for managers and engineers into the driving mechanisms of fluvial flooding over relatively short timescales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

洪泽湖历史洪水分析(1736-1992年)

根据１７３６－１９１１年文献记载的洪泽湖年最高水位及１９１４－１９９２年湖区水文测站的水位,流量资料,进行了长,短序列的入湖洪峰流量及不同时段洪量的频主分析,进而推求出不同重现期的设计入湖洪量和洪水年份相当的重现期,并分析洪水的灾害特征,结果：１）洪泽湖历史上洪水发生频繁,１７８６,１８５１,１９０６年均发生过特大洪水,高堰志桩分别至１６．３,２３．４,１６．１尺。２）１９５３年建库后,湖水位上升     

Estimating river discharge from very high‐resolution satellite data: a case study in the Yangtze River,China

The measurement of river discharge is necessary for understanding many water‐related issues. Traditionally, river discharge is estimated by measuring water stage and converting the measurement to discharge by using a stage–discharge rating curve. Our proposed method for the first time couples the measurement of water‐surface width with river width–stage and stage–discharge rating curves by using very high‐resolution satellite data. We used it to estimate the discharge in the Yangtze (Changjiang) River as a case study. The discharges estimated at four stations from five QuickBird‐2 images matched the ground observation data very well, demonstrating that the proposed approach can be regarded as ancillary to traditional field measurement methods or other remote methods to estimate river discharge. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The channel-geometry method: Guidelines and applications

All river engineering schemes require flood discharge estimates as part of the design and appraisal process. Unfortunately, continuous measurement of flood discharges is limited to those river sites with instrumented gauging stations, which constitute only a small proportion of channel reaches where information is required. Therefore, considerable research effort has been devoted to the development of reliable indirect techniques of flood discharge estimation. Research on the interrelationship of stream channel geometry and river discharge has provided the basis for an indirect method of flood estimation – the channel-geometry method – which employs river channel dimensions alone to estimate discharge characteristics at ungauged river sites. Channel-geometry equations are developed empirically by relating streamflow data from gauging stations and channel dimensions measured from natural river reaches in the vicinity of the gauge, and take the form of power function relations. Once regional channel-geometry equations have been defined, a channel width or channel capacity measurement is the only variable needed to estimate the flood flow characteristics at a specified river site. The method is useful as an alternative to traditional catchment-based approaches or as a rapid reconnaissance technique. In addition to the application for flood discharge prediction, channel-geometry equations could prove helpful in the management of river channels, first, by providing a basis for assessing local deviations in the channel form–discharge relation, deviations which could be employed as indicators of the sensitivity of particular stretches of river channel to change, and secondly, in the computation of natural channel dimensions for use in river channel design and river restoration.     

Flood‐loss modelling for assessing impacts of flood‐frequency adjustment,Middle Mississippi River,USA

This study modelled flood losses (economic damages) along the Middle Mississippi River (MMR) (1) using current US government estimates of flow frequencies and (2) using frequencies based on the original, unaltered discharge measurements. The official flood frequencies were quantified in the Upper Mississippi River System Flow Frequency Study (UMRSFFS), but as a last step in that study, early discharges along the MMR were reduced by up to 54% to reflect a purported bias in early measurements. Subsequently, early discharge measurements were rigorously tested, and no such bias was found. Here, flood damages were quantified using a combination of one‐dimensional hydraulic modelling and flood‐loss modelling. For all recurrence intervals, damages were much less using the UMRSFFS flow frequencies compared with the frequencies based on the original discharge measurements, with differences ranging up to 79% (100‐year event) and $2.9bn (200‐year event). Annualized losses in the study area based on the UMRSFFS frequencies were just $41.6m versus $125.6m using the raw frequencies (an underestimation of 67%). These totals do not include flood losses elsewhere along the MMR, including in metropolitan St Louis. In summary, a seemingly small methodological adjustment – in this case, a single hidden adjustment, not documented anywhere within the UMRSFFS – can have dramatic societal impacts in terms of underestimation of flood probabilities and flood risk. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes to flood peaks of a mountain river: implications for analysis of the 2013 flood in the Upper Bow River,Canada

The mountain headwater Bow River at Banff, Alberta, Canada, was subject to a large flood in June 2013, over which considerable debate has ensued regarding its probability of occurrence. It is therefore instructive to consider what information long‐term streamflow discharge records provide about environmental change in the Upper Bow River basin above Banff. Though protected as part of Banff National Park, since 1885, the basin has experienced considerable climate and land cover changes, each of which has the potential to impact observations, and hence the interpretations of flood probability. The Bow River at Banff hydrometric station is one of Canada's longest‐operating reference hydrological basin network stations and so has great value for assessing changes in flow regime over time. Furthermore, the station measures a river that provides an extremely important water supply for Calgary and irrigation district downstream and so is of great interest for assessing regional water security. These records were examined for changes in several flood attributes and to determine whether flow changes may have been related to landscape change within the basin as caused by forest fires, conversion from grasslands to forest with fire suppression, and regional climate variations and/or trends. Floods in the Upper Bow River are generated by both snowmelt and rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events, the latter type which include flood events generated by spatially and temporally large storms such as occurred in 2013. The two types of floods also have different frequency characteristics. Snowmelt and ROS flood attributes were not correlated significantly with any climate index or with burned area except that snowmelt event duration correlated negatively to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. While there is a significant negative trend in all floods over the past 100 years, when separated based on generating process, neither snowmelt floods nor large ROS floods associated with mesoscale storms show any trends over time. Despite extensive changes to the landscape of the basin and in within the climate system, the flood regime remains unchanged, something identified at smaller scales in the region but never at larger scales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes in flow conveyance and implication for flood protection,Sava River,Zagreb

A low‐lying part of the Croatian capital, Zagreb, is exposed to flood risk from the Sava River. The biggest flood to data, with catastrophic consequences, occurred on 26 November 1964. To protect Zagreb from the Sava River floods, a flood control system was built and set in operation at the end of 1978. The Sava River's flood response changed over time as a result of this constructed system, as well as other anthropogenic and natural influences. The series of maximum annual Sava River stages and discharges measured at the Zagreb gauging station from 1926 to 2004 were analysed. Hydrological methods were used in order to assess Zagreb safety from the Sava River floods in the new conditions. This paper detects changes in high water occurrence in the Sava River near Zagreb. Long‐term stages and linear trends in discharges were examined. A simple technique for the conversion of stages to actual river channel morphology conditions was used. The technique presented in this paper enabled the recalculation of flood probabilities. It is stressed that for a complete understanding of floods, an examination should include the study of parameters of both maximum stages and maximum discharges. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the relationship between hydrographs and chemographs

The spatial representativeness of gauging stations was investigated in two low‐mountainous river basins near the city of Trier, southwest Germany. Longitudinal profiles during low and high flow conditions were sampled in order to identify sources of solutes and to characterize the alteration of flood wave properties during its travel downstream. Numerous hydrographs and chemographs of natural flood events were analysed in detail. Additionally, artificial flood events were investigated to study in‐channel transport processes. During dry weather conditions the gauging station was only representative for a short river segment upstream, owing to discharge and solute concentrations of sources contiguous to the measurement site. During artificial flood events the kinematic wave velocity was considerably faster than the movement of water body and solutes, refuting the idea of a simple mixing process of individual runoff components. Depending on hydrological boundary conditions, the wave at a specific gauge could be entirely composed of old in‐channel water, which notably reduces the spatial representativeness of a sampling site. Natural flood events were characterized by a superimposition of local overland flow, riparian water and the kinematic wave process comprising the downstream conveyance of solutes. Summer floods in particular were marked by a chronological occurrence of distinct individual runoff components originating only from a few contributing areas adjacent to the stream and gauge. Thus, the representativeness of a gauge for processes in the whole basin depends on the distance of the nearest significant source to the station. The consequence of our study is that the assumptions of mixing models are not satisfied in river basins larger than 3 km². Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flood hydrograph attenuation induced by a reservoir system: analysis with a distributed rainfall‐runoff model

Spatially distributed hydrologic models can be effectively utilized for flood event simulation over basins where a complex system of reservoirs affecting the natural flow regime is present. Flood peak attenuation through mountain reservoirs can, in fact, mitigate the impact of major floods in flood‐prone areas of the lower river valley. Assessment of this effect for a complex reservoir system is performed with a spatially distributed hydrologic model where the surface runoff formation and the hydraulic routing through each reservoir and the river system are performed at a fine spatial and time resolution. The Toce River basin is presented as a case study, because of the presence of 14 active hydroelectric dams that affect the natural flow regime. A recent extreme flood event is simulated using a multi‐realization kriging method for modelling the spatial distribution of rainfall. A sensitivity analysis of the key elements of the distributed hydrologic model is also performed. The flood hydrograph attenuation is assessed. Several possible reservoir storage conditions are used to characterize the initial condition of each reservoir. The results demonstrate how a distributed hydrologic model can contribute to defining strategies for reservoir management in flood mitigation. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Real‐time monitoring and estimation of the discharge of flash floods in a steep mountain catchment

Synchronously and accurately estimating the flood discharges and dynamic changes in the fluid density is essential for hydraulic analysis and forecasting of flash floods, as well as for risk assessment. However, such information is rare for steep mountain catchments, especially in regions that are hotspots for earthquakes. Therefore, six hydrological monitoring sites were established in the main stream and tributaries of the 78.3‐km² Longxi River catchment, an affected region of the Wenchuan earthquake region in China. Direct real‐time monitoring equipment was installed to measure the flow depths, velocities, and fluid total pressures of the flood hydrographs. On the basis of field measurements, real‐time mean cross‐sectional velocities during the flood hydrographs could be derived from easily obtainable parameters: cross‐sectional maximum velocities and the calibrated dimensionless parameter K_h . Real‐time discharges were determined on the basis of a noncontact method to establish the effective rating curves of this mountainous stream, ranging from 1.46 to 386.34 m³/s with the root mean square errors of ≤10.22 m³/s. Compared with the traditional point‐velocity method and empirical Manning's formula, the proposed noncontact method was reliable and safe for monitoring whole flood hydrographs. Additionally, the real‐time fluid density during the flood hydrographs was calculated on the basis of the direct monitoring parameters for fluid total pressures and water depths. During the flood hydrograph, transient flow behaviour with higher fluid density generally occurred downstream during the flood peak periods when the flow was in the supercritical flow regime. The observed behaviour greatly increased the threat of damage to infrastructure and human life near the river. Thus, it is important to accurately estimate flood discharge and identify for fluid densities so that people at risk from an impending flash flood are given reliable, advanced warning.     

Hydrologic impact of regional climate change for the snowfed and glacierfed river basins in the Republic of Tajikistan: hydrological response of flow to climate change

The warming of the Earth's atmosphere system is likely to change temperature and precipitation, which may affect the climate, hydrology and water resources at the river basins over the world. The importance of temperature change becomes even greater in snow or glacier dominated basins where it controls the snowmelt processes during the late‐winter, spring and summer months. In this study hydrologic responses of streamflow in the Pyanj and Vaksh River basins to climate change are analysed with a watershed hydrology model, based on the downscaled atmospheric data as input, in order to assess the regional climate change impact for the snowfed and glacierfed river basins in the Republic of Tajikistan. As a result of this analysis, it was found that the annual mean river discharge is increasing in the future at snow and glacier dominated areas due to the air temperature increase and the consequent increase in snow/ice melt rates until about 2060. Then the annual mean flow discharge starts to decrease from about 2080 onward because the small glaciers start to disappear in the glacier areas. It was also found that there is a gradual change in the hydrologic flow regime throughout a year, with the high flows occuring earlier in the hydrologic year, due to the warmer climate in the future. Furthermore, significant increases in annual maximum daily flows, including the 100‐year return period flows, at the Pyanj and Vaksh River basins toward the end of the 21st century can be inferred from flood frequency analysis results. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A quarter century of declining suspended sediment fluxes in the Mississippi River and the effect of the 1993 flood

Annual fluxes, flow‐weighted concentrations and linear least squares trendline calculations for a number of long‐term Mississippi River Basin (MRB) sampling sites covering 1981 through 2007, whilst somewhat ‘noisy’, display long‐term patterns of decline. Annual flow‐weighted concentration plots display the same long‐term patterns of decline, but are less noisy because they reduce/eliminate variations due to interannual discharge differences. The declines appear greatest in the middle MRB, but also are evident elsewhere. The pattern for the lower Ohio River differs and may reflect ongoing construction at the Olmsted lock and dam that began in 1993 and currently is ongoing. The ‘Great Flood of 1993’ appears to have superimposed a step function (a sharp drop) on the long‐term rate of decline in suspended sediment concentrations (SSC), annual fluxes and flow‐weighted concentrations in the middle MRB at St Louis and Thebes, Missouri and Vicksburg, Mississippi, and in the lower MRB at St Francisville, Louisiana. Evidence for a step function at other sites is less substantial, but may have occurred. The step function appears to have resulted from losses in available (erodible) sediment, rather than to a reduction in discharge; hence, the MRB appears to be supply limited rather than discharge limited. These evaluations support the need for daily discharge and SSC data collections in the MRB to better address questions regarding long‐term trends in sediment‐related issues. This is apparent when the results for the Mississippi River at Thebes and St Louis sites are compared with those from other MRB sites where intensive (daily) data collections are lacking. Published in 2009 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of floods on the temperature of riparian groundwater

The transition area between rivers and their adjacent riparian aquifers, which may comprise the hyporheic zone, hosts important biochemical reactions, which control water quality. The rates of these reactions and metabolic processes are temperature dependent. Yet the thermal dynamics of riparian aquifers, especially during flooding and dynamic groundwater flow conditions, has seldom been studied. Thus, we investigated heat transport in riparian aquifers during 3 flood events of different magnitudes at 2 sites along the same river. River and riparian aquifer temperature and water‐level data along the Lower Colorado River in Central Texas, USA, were monitored across 2‐dimensional vertical sections perpendicular to the bank. At the downstream site, preflood temperature penetration distance into the bank suggested that advective heat transport from lateral hyporheic exchange of river water into the riparian aquifer was occurring during relatively steady low‐flow river conditions. Although a small (20‐cm stage increase) dam‐controlled flood pulse had no observable influence on groundwater temperature, larger floods (40‐cm and >3‐m stage increases) caused lateral movement of distinct heat plumes away from the river during flood stage, which then retreated back towards the river after flood recession. These plumes result from advective heat transport caused by flood waters being forced into the riparian aquifer. These flood‐induced temperature responses were controlled by the size of the flood, river water temperature during the flood, and local factors at the study sites, such as topography and local ambient water table configuration. For the intermediate and large floods, the thermal disturbance in the riparian aquifer lasted days after flood waters receded. Large floods therefore have impacts on the temperature regime of riparian aquifers lasting long beyond the flood's timescale. These persistent thermal disturbances may have a significant impact on biochemical reaction rates, nutrient cycling, and ecological niches in the river corridor.     

Effects of river discharge on hyporheic exchange flows in salmon spawning areas of a large gravel‐bed river

The flow magnitude and timing from hydroelectric dams in the Snake River Basin of the Pacific north‐western US is managed in part for the benefit of salmon. The objective of this research was to evaluate the effects of Hells Canyon Dam discharge operations on hydrologic exchange flows between the river and riverbed in Snake River fall Chinook salmon spawning areas. Interactions between river water and pore water within the upper 1 m of the riverbed were quantified through the use of self‐contained temperature and water level data loggers suspended inside of piezometers. The data were recorded at 20 min intervals over a period of 200 days when the mean daily discharge was 218–605 m³ s^?1, with hourly stage changes as large as 1·9 m. Differences in head pressure between the river and riverbed were small, often within ± 2 cm. Measured temperature gradients in the riverbed indicated significant interactions between the surface and subsurface water. At the majority of sites, neither hydraulic nor temperature gradients were significantly affected by either short‐ or long‐term changes in discharge operations from Hells Canyon Dam. Only 2 of 14 study sites exhibited acute flux reversals between the river and riverbed resulting from short‐term, large magnitude changes in discharge. The findings suggest that local scale measurements may not be wholly explanatory of the hydrological exchange between the river and riverbed. The processes controlling surface water exchange at the study sites are likely to be bedform‐induced advective pumping, turbulence at the riverbed surface, and large‐scale hydraulic gradients along the longitudinal profile of the riverbed. By incorporating the knowledge of hydrological exchange processes into water management planning, regional agencies will be better prepared to manage the limited water resources among competing priorities that include salmon recovery, flood control, irrigation supply, hydropower production, and recreation. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF FLOOD DETENTION OPERATION IN MULTIPLY CONNECTED RIVER CHANNEL NETWORK

IINTRODUCTIONAccuratepredictionoftheconsequencesofaflooddetelltion-diversionoperationincomplexriverchannelnetworkisofgreatimportancetothedecisionmakingprocess.InthisregardtWotypesofmodelavailableforsimulatingsuchoperationsarefarfromsatisfactory,duetotheintricatenatUreofprocessesinvolvedintheseoperations.Thefirstmodeltype,i.e.,thewidelyusedhydrologicalmodels,dependsonsystematicwaterstageanddischargemeasurementsatgaugestations,andtheirpredictionsarelimitedtovariationsimwaterstageanddischar…     

Effects of land cover change on flood peak discharges and runoff volumes: model estimates for the Nyando River Basin,Kenya

The impacts of historical land cover changes witnessed between 1973 and 2000 on the hydrologic response of the Nyando River Basin were investigated. The land cover changes were obtained through consistent classifications of selected Landsat satellite images. Their effects on runoff peak discharges and volumes were subsequently assessed using selected hydrologic models for runoff generation and routing available within the HEC‐HMS. Physically based parameters of the models were estimated from the land cover change maps together with a digital elevation model and soil datasets of the basin. Observed storm events for the simulation were selected and their interpolated spatial distributions obtained using the univariate ordinary Kriging procedure. The simulated flows from the 14 sub‐catchments were routed downstream afterwards to obtain the accrued effects in the entire river basin. Model results obtained generally revealed significant and varying increases in the runoff peak discharges and volumes within the basin. In the upstream sub‐catchments with higher rates of deforestation, increases between 30 and 47% were observed in the peak discharge. In the entire basin, however, the flood peak discharges and volumes increased by at least 16 and 10% respectively during the entire study period. The study successfully outlined the hydrological consequences of the eminent land cover changes and hence the need for sustainable land use and catchment management strategies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.