Predicting and forecasting flow discharge at sites receiving significant lateral inflow

Two models, one linear and one non‐linear, were employed for the prediction of flow discharge hydrographs at sites receiving significant lateral inflow. The linear model is based on a rating curve and permits a quick estimation of flow at a downstream site. The non‐linear model is based on a multilayer feed‐forward back propagation (FFBP) artificial neural network (ANN) and uses flow‐stage data measured at the upstream and downstream stations. ANN predicted the real‐time storm hydrographs satisfactorily and better than did the linear model. The results of sensitivity analysis indicated that when the lateral inflow contribution to the channel reach was insignificant, ANN, using only the flow‐stage data at the upstream station, satisfactorily predicted the hydrograph at the downstream station. The prediction error of ANN increases exponentially with the difference between the peak discharge used in training and that used in testing. ANN was also employed for flood forecasting and was compared with the modified Muskingum model (MMM). For a 4‐h lead time, MMM forecasts the floods reliably but could not be applied to reaches for lead times greater than the wave travel time. Although ANN and MMM had comparable performances for an 8‐h lead time, ANN is capable of forecasting floods with lead times longer than the wave travel time. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrodynamic derivation of a variable parameter Muskingum method: 2. Verification

Abstract

The hydrodynamic derivation of a variable parameter Muskingum method and its solution procedure for estimating a routed hydrograph were presented in Part I of this series (Perumal, 1994a). In this paper, the limitations of the method, the criterion for its applicability and its accuracy are discussed based on the assumptions used. The method is verified by routing a given hypothetical inflow hydrograph through uniform rectangular cross-section channels and comparing the results with the corresponding numerical solutions of the St. Venant equations. The stage hydrographs as computed by the method are also compared with the corresponding St. Venant solutions. It is demonstrated that the method closely reproduces the St. Venant solutions for the discharge and stage hydrographs subject to the compliance of the assumptions of the method by the routing process.     

Development of design flood hydrographs using probability density functions

Probability density functions (PDFs) are used to fit the shape of hydrographs and have been popularly used for the development of synthetic unit hydrographs by many hydrologists. Nevertheless, modelling the shapes of continuous stream flow hydrographs, which are probabilistic in nature, is rare. In the present study, a novel approach was followed to model the shape of stream flow hydrographs using PDF and subsequently to develop design flood hydrographs for various return periods. Four continuous PDFs, namely, two parameter Beta, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal, were employed to fit the shape of the hydrographs of 22 years at a site of Brahmani River in eastern India. The shapes of the observed and PDF fitted hydrographs were compared and root mean square errors, error of peak discharge (EQ_P) and error of time to peak (ET_P) were computed. The best‐fitted shape and scale parameters of all PDFs were subjected to frequency analysis and the quartiles corresponding to 20‐, 50‐, 100‐ and 200‐year were estimated. The estimated parameters of each return period were used to develop the flood hydrographs for 20‐, 50‐, 100‐ and 200‐year return periods. The peak discharges of the developed design flood hydrographs were compared with the design discharges estimated from the frequency analysis of 22 years of annual peak discharges at that site. Lognormal‐produced peak discharge was very close to the estimated design discharge in case of 20‐year flood hydrograph. On the other hand, peak discharge obtained using the Weibull PDF had close agreement with the estimated design discharge obtained from frequency analysis in case of 50‐, 100‐ and 200‐year return periods. The ranking of the PDFs based on estimation of peak of design flood hydrograph for 50‐, 100‐ and 200‐year return periods was found to have the following order: Weibull > Beta > Lognormal > Gamma. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Updating Real-Time Flood Forecasting Using a Fuzzy Rule-Based Model/Mise à Jour de Prévision de Crue en Temps Réel Grâce à un Modèle à Base de Règles Floues

Abstract

An updating technique is a tool to update the forecasts of mathematical flood forecasting model based on data observed in real time, and is an important element in a flood forecasting model. An error prediction model based on a fuzzy rule-based method was proposed as the updating technique in this work to improve one- to four-hour-ahead flood forecasts by a model that is composed of the grey rainfall model, the grey rainfall—runoff model and the modified Muskingum flow routing model. The coefficient of efficiency with respect to a benchmark is applied to test the applicability of the proposed fuzzy rule-based method. The analysis reveals that the fuzzy rule-based method can improve flood forecasts one to four hours ahead. The proposed updating technique can mitigate the problem of the phase lag in forecast hydrographs, and especially in forecast hydrographs with longer lead times.     

淮河具有行蓄洪区河系洪水预报水力学模型研究

针对淮河流域河系特点,建立淮河具有行蓄洪区河系洪水预报模型.干流河道洪水演进采用一维水动力学模型,钐岗分流量利用分流曲线法推求,利用虚拟线性水库法解决大洪水时支流洪水受干流顶托作用,临淮岗闸作为水力学模型的内边界条件进行处理,利用分流比法概化行洪过程,行洪区内只有蓄满时,才会有出流,行洪区内的洪水利用Muskingum...     

Assessment of river flow with significant lateral inflow through reverse routing modeling

The discharge hydrograph estimation in rivers based on reverse routing modeling and using only water level data at two gauged sections is here extended to the most general case of significant lateral flow contribution, without needing to deploy rainfall–runoff procedures. The proposed methodology solves the Saint‐Venant equations in diffusive form also involving the lateral contribution using a “head‐driven” modeling approach where lateral inflow is assumed to be function of the water level at the tributary junction. The procedure allows to assess the discharge hydrograph at ends of a selected river reach with significant lateral inflow, starting from the stage recorded there and without needing rainfall data. Specifically, the MAST 1D hydraulic model is applied to solve the diffusive wave equation using the observed stage hydrograph at the upstream section as upstream boundary condition. The other required data are (a) the observed stage hydrograph at the downstream section, as benchmark for the parameter calibration, and (b) the bathymetry of the river reach, from the upstream section to a short distance after the downstream gauged section. The method is validated with different flood events observed in two river reaches with a significant intermediate basin, where reliable rating curves were available, selected along the Tiber River, in central Italy, and the Alzette River, in Luxembourg. Very good performance indices are found for the computed discharge hydrographs at both the channel ends and along the tributaries. The mean Nash‐Sutcliffe value (NS_q) at the channel ends of two rivers is found equal to 0.99 and 0.86 for the upstream and downstream sites, respectively. The procedure is also validated on a longer stretch of the Tiber River including three tributaries for which appreciable results are obtained in terms of NS_q for the computed discharge hydrographs at both the channel ends for three investigated flood events.     

Flash-flood and bedload dynamics of desert gravel-bed streams

Comparatively little is known about the hydrology of desert flash-floods despite the extent of the world's drylands. There is even less known about their sedimentary behaviour and particularly about the movement of coarse material as bedload. The results of an intense field monitoring programme carried out on an ephemeral gravel-bed stream in the northern Negev Desert are presented. In this semi-arid setting, flow duration analysis indicates that the channel is hydrologically active for 2% of the time, or about seven days per year, and that overbank flow can be expected for only 0·03% of the time—about three hours per year. Multipeaked flood hydrographs are the norm, reflecting many factors including the arrival of separate slugs of discharge from contributing subcatchments. The passage of the initial flood bore is surprisingly slow, but the rising limb of the flood hydrograph is rapid with a median time of rise of 10 minutes, in keeping with expected flash-flood behaviour. Bedload flux is high, averaging 2·67 kg s⁻¹ m⁻¹ during the period that the channel carries flow. This gives very high bedload sediment yield despite the infrequent and short duration of flood flows and matches the high yield of suspended sediment. The relationship between bedload flux and boundary shear stress is simple, in contrast with perennial gravel-bed streams, and the exponent of the log–log relationship is 1·52. Of great value is that the behaviour of the Nahal Eshtemoa corroborates a pattern established by the authors previously in a smaller tributary stream. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于连续方程的河道水流双变量耦合演算模型

针对现有的河道水流洪水演算模型只能模拟单一变量(流量或水位)的问题,以水流连续方程和河段蓄水量的两种不同表达形式(蓄水量等于平均过水断面面积与河段长乘积,蓄水量等于河段平均流量与传播时间的乘积)为基础,对马斯京根模型进行了通用性改进,提出了双变量耦合通用演算模型.选取了四大水系(包括内陆河流和入海河流)的16个河段汛期洪水资料进行模型检验,模型验证考虑了地理范围、不同的河段特征和水力特征、洪水量级等因素,全面地检验了模型结构的合理性和模拟实际洪水的有效性.将双变量耦合通用演算模型与传统的马斯京根法进行了效果比较,结果表明双变量耦合通用演算模型的模拟精度高于马斯京根法,模拟效果比马斯京根法稳定一些,而且具有较好的通用性.     

The application of electrical conductivity as a tracer for hydrograph separation in urban catchments

Two‐component hydrograph separation was performed on 19 low‐to‐moderate intensity rainfall events in a 4·1‐km² urban watershed to infer the relative and absolute contribution of surface runoff (e.g. new water) to stormflow generation between 2001 and 2003. The electrical conductivity (EC) of water was used as a continuous and inexpensive tracer, with order of magnitude differences in precipitation (12–46 µS/cm) and pre‐event streamwater EC values (520–1297 µS/cm). While new water accounted for most of the increased discharge during storms (61–117%), the contribution of new water to total discharge during events was typically lower (18–78%) and negatively correlated with antecedent stream discharge (r² = 0·55, p < 0·01). The amount of new water was positively correlated with total rainfall (r² = 0·77), but hydrograph separation results suggest that less than half (9–46%) of the total rainfall on impervious surfaces is rapidly routed to the stream channel as new water. Comparison of hydrograph separation results using non‐conservative tracers (EC and Si) and a conservative isotopic tracer (δD) for two events showed similar results and highlighted the potential application of EC as an inexpensive, high frequency tracer for hydrograph separation studies in urban catchments. The use of a simple tracer‐based approach may help hydrologists and watershed managers to better understand impervious surface runoff, stormflow generation and non‐point‐source pollutant loading to urban streams. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrodynamic characteristics of the Tam Pokhari glacial lake outburst flood in the Mt. Everest region,Nepal

The Tam Pokhari glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF), which occurred in 1998 in the Mt. Everest region of Nepal, was evaluated using hydrodynamic models to gain a better understanding of the flow behaviour. The flood wave was analysed separately under rigid and erodible boundary conditions. In both cases, the calculated dam‐breach hydrograph, which had a peak discharge of about 10 000 m³/s, was routed through the Inkhu River, which originates from the lake. The morphologic changes along the river were also analysed and the results were compared with satellite images, field observations and recorded data. In the case of rigid boundaries, the routing procedure gradually attenuated the peaks of the hydrographs to account for hydraulic pooling in narrow gorges and storage in the channel. In the case of erodible boundaries, such effects were minimized due to the increment in channel capacity associated with erosion by debris flow. The study revealed that the GLOF event produced a large‐scale debris flow. Additionally, the results revealed that erosion and deposition took place intermittently, but that approximately 440 000 m³ of sediment was deposited about 14 km downstream from the lake mouth. The calculated peak of the water and sediment mixture at 14·4 km was found to be 30 000 m³/s, which is almost 6 times as large as that observed when the rigid boundary conditions were used. Further, the increase in the peaks of the hydrographs due to sediment transport was the primary reason for the destruction associated with the GLOF. These findings suggest that the local sedimentology and topography, as well as other geo‐hazard conditions in the area, should be carefully evaluated before recommending any control measures against GLOFs in the Himalayan region. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of growing watershed imperviousness on hydrograph parameters and peak discharge

An increasing impervious area is quickly extending over the Wu‐Tu watershed due to the endless demands of the people. Generally, impervious paving is a major result of urbanization and more recently has had the potential to produce more enormous flood disasters than those of the past. In this study, 40 available rainfall–runoff events were chosen to calibrate the applicable parameters of the models and to determine the relationships between the impervious surfaces and the calibrated parameters. Model inputs came from the outcomes of the block kriging method and the non‐linear programming method. In the optimal process, the shuffled complex evolution method and three criteria were applied to compare the observed and simulated hydrographs. The tendencies of the variations of the parameters with their corresponding imperviousness were established through regression analysis. Ten cases were used to examine the established equations of the parameters and impervious covers. Finally, the design flood routines of various return periods were furnished through use of approaches containing a design storm, block kriging, the SCS model, and a rainfall‐runoff model with established functional relationships. These simulated flood hydrographs were used to compare and understand the past, present, and future hydrological conditions of the watershed studied. In the research results, the time to peak of flood hydrographs for various storms was diminished approximately from 11 h to 6 h in different decrements, whereas peak flow increased respectively from 127 m³ s^?1 to 629 m³ s^?1 for different storm intensities. In addition, this study provides a design diagram for the peak flow ratio to help engineers and designers to construct hydraulic structures efficiently and prevent possible damage to human life and property. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Real‐time monitoring and estimation of the discharge of flash floods in a steep mountain catchment

Synchronously and accurately estimating the flood discharges and dynamic changes in the fluid density is essential for hydraulic analysis and forecasting of flash floods, as well as for risk assessment. However, such information is rare for steep mountain catchments, especially in regions that are hotspots for earthquakes. Therefore, six hydrological monitoring sites were established in the main stream and tributaries of the 78.3‐km² Longxi River catchment, an affected region of the Wenchuan earthquake region in China. Direct real‐time monitoring equipment was installed to measure the flow depths, velocities, and fluid total pressures of the flood hydrographs. On the basis of field measurements, real‐time mean cross‐sectional velocities during the flood hydrographs could be derived from easily obtainable parameters: cross‐sectional maximum velocities and the calibrated dimensionless parameter K_h . Real‐time discharges were determined on the basis of a noncontact method to establish the effective rating curves of this mountainous stream, ranging from 1.46 to 386.34 m³/s with the root mean square errors of ≤10.22 m³/s. Compared with the traditional point‐velocity method and empirical Manning's formula, the proposed noncontact method was reliable and safe for monitoring whole flood hydrographs. Additionally, the real‐time fluid density during the flood hydrographs was calculated on the basis of the direct monitoring parameters for fluid total pressures and water depths. During the flood hydrograph, transient flow behaviour with higher fluid density generally occurred downstream during the flood peak periods when the flow was in the supercritical flow regime. The observed behaviour greatly increased the threat of damage to infrastructure and human life near the river. Thus, it is important to accurately estimate flood discharge and identify for fluid densities so that people at risk from an impending flash flood are given reliable, advanced warning.     

A new baseflow separation method based on analytical solutions of the Horton infiltration capacity curve

The separation of baseflow is an important issue in hydrology. The objective of this paper is to develop a new baseflow separation method based on the Horton infiltration capacity curve. For this purpose, the mathematical expressions of three parameters for the Horton infiltration capacity curve were derived in terms of rainfall and runoff data, and the lag time of the effective rainfall in the unsaturated zone and the groundwater flow routing equation are also presented. With these equations, the baseflow hydrographs at the outlet of the basin can be separated. The flow chart of the proposed method for baseflow hydrograph separation is given. Three recent baseflow separation methods, i.e. digital filter, non‐linear reservoir and the Boussinesq equation, were chosen as parallel schemes to compare with the proposed method. Rainfall‐runoff data from four watersheds located in different climatic regions in China were selected and used as case studies. Test and application results indicate that the proposed baseflow hydrograph separation method is in accordance with the hydrological physical process. The proposed method is comparable with current available methods and reduces some of the subjective aspects for the rising limb of the baseflow hydrograph, and it is useful for unit hydrograph analysis and for the study of the rainfall‐runoff relationship. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Particle travel distances and bed and sediment compositions associated with rain‐impacted flows

Laboratory experiments were performed with rain of uniform drop size (2·7 mm, 5·1 mm) impacting flows over non‐cohesive beds of uniform sized sand (0·11–0·9 mm) and coal (0·2–0·9 mm) particles with flow velocities (20 mm s^?1, 40 mm s^?1) that were insufficient for the flow to entrain the particles without the aid of raindrop impact. Measurement of particle travel distance under rain made up of 2·7 mm drops confirmed a theoretical relationship between settling velocity and the distance particles travel after being disturbed by drop impact. Although, in theory, a relationship between settling velocity and particle travel distance exists, settling velocity by itself was unable to account for the effect of changes in both particle size and density on sediment discharge from beds of uniform non‐cohesive material. Particle density was also a factor. Further study of how particle characteristics influence sediment discharge will aid modelling of the impact of the soil in process‐based models of erosion by rain‐impacted flow. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment on the function of reservoirs for flood control during typhoon seasons based on a distributed hydrological model

A grid‐based distributed hydrological model, PDTank model, is used to simulate hydrological processes in the upper Tone River catchment. The Tone River catchment often suffers from heavy rainfall events during the typhoon seasons. The reservoirs located in the catchment play an important role in flood regulation. Through the coupling of the PDTank model and a reservoir module that combines the storage function and operation function, the PDTank model is used for flood forecasting in this study. By comparing the hydrographs simulated using gauging and radar rainfall data, it is found that the spatial variability of rainfall is an important factor for flood simulation and the accuracy of the hydrographs simulated using radar rainfall data is slightly improved. The simulation of the typhoon flood event numbered No. 9 shows that the reservoirs in the catchment attenuate the peak flood discharge by 423·3 m³/s and validates the potential applicability of the distributed hydrological model on the assessment of function of reservoirs for flood control during typhoon seasons. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reservoir attenuation of floods from ungauged basins

Abstract

In a typical reservoir routing problem, the givens are the inflow hydrograph and reservoir characteristic functions. Flood attenuation investigations can be easily accomplished using a hydrological or hydraulic routing of the inflow hydrograph to obtain the reservoir outflow hydrograph, unless the inflow hydrograph is unavailable. Although attempts for runoff simulation have been made in ungauged basins, there is only a limited degree of success in special cases. Those approaches are, in general, not suitable for basins with a reservoir. The objective of this study is to propose a procedure for flood attenuation estimation in ungauged reservoir basins. In this study, a kinematic-wave based geomorphic IUH model was adopted. The reservoir inflow hydrograph was generated through convolution integration using the rainfall excess and basin geomorphic information. Consequently, a fourth-order Runge-Kutta method was used to route the inflow hydrograph to obtain the reservoir outflow hydrograph without the aid of recorded flow data. Flood attenuation was estimated through the analysis of the inflow and outflow hydrographs of the reservoir. An ungauged reservoir basin in southern Taiwan is presented as an example to show the applicability of the proposed analytical procedure. The analytical results provide valuable information for downstream flood control work for different return periods.     

Hysteresis‐based flood‐wave analysis using the concept of strain

Hysteresis represents a loop in a rating curve and is a phenomenon which closely resembles that occurring in stress–strain curves used for studying the elastic properties of solid substances in engineering mechanics. Earlier hysteresis‐based studies used for defining floodwave propagation in open channels have qualitatively shown that hysteresis is an index of energy loss during floodwave propagation. Using the concept of elasticity, this paper introduces a new term called flow strain (defined as the ratio of change in discharge to the initial discharge) for investigating hysteresis. The usefulness of this new term is evaluated with use of four dam‐break studies. The study reveals that:

• 1 flow strain is a function of three wave speeds, Seddon speed, Lagrange speed, and elastic speed;
• 2 a single linear reservoir concept frequently used in flood routing is a specific variant of the Seddon speed formula;
• 3 the non‐linear storage–discharge relationship, widely used in overland flow modelling, is a variant of the kinematic wave representation;
• 4 the discharge ordinates on the recession part of a hydrograph follow a simple first‐order autoregressive form;
• 5 the hysteresis, phase difference and logarithmic decrement all define attenuation and are indices of energy loss during floodwave propagation.

Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Suspended sediment discharge in subsurface flow from the head hollow of a small forested watershed,northern Japan

Surface flow and suspended sediment discharge from the head hollow of the Jozankei Experimental Watershed in Hokkaido, northern Japan, were measured to clarify the implications of subsurface hydrology for soil movement. Subsurface discharges during the extremely large storms of 1993 to 1994 were measured in a V-notch weir installed at a natural spring near the bottom of the head hollow, and shallow groundwater levels were observed in the wells excavated in the hollow. Sediment samples whose particle size range from 0·001 to 0·1 mm were manually and automatically collected at 15 to 60 min intervals, by use of 1 or 21 polyethylene bottles. Maximum concentration and flux of suspended sediment during the storms preceded the peak discharge of subsurface flow by several hours. Neither the changes in concentration (mg l⁻¹) nor flux (mg s⁻¹) of suspended sediment coincided with those in subsurface discharge (l s⁻¹). Furthermore, sediment concentration was poorly correlated with the rate of change in subsurface discharge (l s⁻²) during the rising limb of the hydrograph. Suspended sediment flux during the acceleratory limb, however, was closely correlated with the rate of change in subsurface discharge. The relationship between suspended sediment flux and rate of change in subsurface discharge were in inverse proportion to initial subsurface discharge before the storm runoff and they represented rare seasonal variation. Subsurface hydraulic erosion and transport of suspended sediment resulting from changes in rate of change in subsurface discharge actively occur during the acceleratory rising limb of the hydrograph. Accordingly, subsurface hydraulic erosion during the acceleratory rising limb of the hydrograph can be physically understood by analysing suspended sediment flux associated with rate of change in subsurface discharge and initial subsurface discharge. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climatic control on river discharge simulations,Zackenberg River drainage basin,northeast Greenland

A spatially distributed, physically based, hydrologic modeling system (MIKE SHE) was applied to quantify intra‐ and inter‐annual discharge from the snow and glacierized Zackenberg River drainage basin (512 km²; 20% glacier cover) in northeast Greenland. Evolution of snow accumulation, distribution by wind‐blown snow, blowing‐snow sublimation, and snow and ice surface melt were simulated by a spatially distributed, physically based, snow‐evolution modelling system (SnowModel) and used as input to MIKE SHE. Discharge simulations were performed for three periods 1997–2001 (calibration period), 2001–2005 (validation period), and 2071–2100 (scenario period). The combination of SnowModel and MIKE SHE shows promising results; the timing and magnitude of simulated discharge were generally in accordance with observations (R² = 0·58); however, discrepancies between simulated and observed discharge hydrographs do occur (maximum daily difference up to 44·6 m³ s^?1 and up to 9% difference between observed and simulated cumulative discharge). The model does not perform well when a sudden outburst of glacial dammed water occurs, like the 2005 extreme flood event. The modelling study showed that soil processes related to yearly change in active layer depth and glacial processes (such as changes in yearly glacier area, seasonal changes in the internal glacier drainage system, and the sudden release of glacial bulk water storage) need to be determined, for example, from field studies and incorporated in the models before basin runoff can be quantified more precisely. The SnowModel and MIKE SHE model only include first‐order effects of climate change. For the period 2071–2100, future IPCC A2 and B2 climate scenarios based on the HIRHAM regional climate model and HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations indicated a mean annual Zackenberg runoff about 1·5 orders of magnitude greater (around 650 mmWE year^?1) than from today 1997–2005 (around 430 mmWE year^?1), mainly based on changes in negative glacier net mass balance. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Artificial neural networks and fuzzy logic based control of spillway gates of dams

In this paper a new and efficient control method based on fuzzy logic is proposed for real‐time operation of spillway gates of a reservoir during any flood of any magnitude up to the probable maximum flood. Artificial neural networks are used to model the non‐linear relationship among the main variables of the reservoir under consideration. In order to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method, we simulate the control system using different probable overflow hydrographs. The results of the proposed control method are compared with the results of the conventional control methods. The results obtained from the simulations indicate that the proposed method exhibits superior performance over the conventional reservoir flood operation, with much more flexible results. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.