On the prediction of the Toce alpine basin floods with distributed hydrologic models

With the objective of improving flood predictions, in recent years sophisticated continuous hydrologic models that include complex land‐surface sub‐models have been developed. This has produced a significant increase in parameterization; consequently, applications of distributed models to ungauged basins lacking specific data from field campaigns may become redundant. The objective of this paper is to produce a parsimonious and robust distributed hydrologic model for flood predictions in Italian alpine basins. Application is made to the Toce basin (area 1534 km²). The Toce basin was a case study of the RAPHAEL European Union research project, during which a comprehensive set of hydrologic, meteorological and physiographic data were collected, including the hydrologic analysis of the 1996–1997 period. Two major floods occurred during this period. We compare the FEST04 event model (which computes rainfall abstraction and antecedent soil moisture conditions through the simple Soil Conservation Service curve number method) and two continuous hydrologic models, SDM and TDM (which differ in soil water balance scheme, and base flow and runoff generation computations). The simple FEST04 event model demonstrated good performance in the prediction of the 1997 flood, but shows limits in the prediction of the long and moderate 1996 flood. More robust predictions are obtained with the parsimonious SDM continuous hydrologic model, which uses a simple one‐layer soil water balance model and an infiltration excess mechanism for runoff generation, and demonstrates good performance in both long‐term runoff modelling and flood predictions. Instead, the use of a more sophisticated continuous hydrologic model, the TDM, that simulates soil moisture dynamics in two layers of soil, and computes runoff and base flow using some TOPMODEL concepts, does not seem to be advantageous for this alpine basin. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of lateral flow and spatial scaling on the simulation of semi‐arid urban land surfaces in an integrated hydrologic and land surface model

Understanding and representing hydrologic fluxes in the urban environment is challenging because of fine scale land cover heterogeneity and lack of coherent scaling relationships. Here, the impact of urban land cover heterogeneity, scale, and configuration on the hydrologic and surface energy budget (SEB) is assessed using an integrated, coupled land surface/hydrologic model at high spatial resolutions. Archetypes of urban land cover are simulated at varying resolutions using both the National Land Cover Database (NLCD; 30 m) and an ultra high‐resolution land cover dataset (0.6 m). The analysis shows that the impact of highly organized, yet heterogeneous, land cover typical of the urban domain can cause large variations in hydrologic and energy fluxes within areas of similar land cover. The lateral flow processes that occur within each simulation create variations in overland flow of up to ±200% and ±4% in evapotranspiration. The impact on the SEB is smaller and largely restricted to the wet season for our semi‐arid forcing scenarios. Finally, we find that this seasonal bias, predominantly caused by lateral flow, is displaced by a systematic diurnal bias at coarser resolutions caused by deficiencies in the method used for scaling of land surface and hydrologic parameters. As a result of this research, we have produced land surface parameters for the widely used NLCD urban land cover types. This work illustrates the impact of processes that remain unrepresented in traditional high‐resolutions land surface models and how they may affect results and uncertainty in modeling of local water resources and climate. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatio-temporal evolution and time-stable characteristics of soil moisture within remote sensing footprints with varying soil, slope, and vegetation

Air-borne passive microwave remote sensors measure soil moisture at the footprint scale, a scale of several hundred square meters or kilometers that encompasses different characteristic combinations of soil, topography, vegetation, and climate. Studies of within-footprint variability of soil moisture are needed to determine the factors governing hydrologic processes and their relative importance, as well as to test the efficacy of remote sensors. Gridded ground-based impedance probe water content data and aircraft-mounted Electronically Scanned Thinned Array Radiometer (ESTAR) pixel-average soil moisture data were used to investigate the spatio-temporal evolution and time-stable characteristics of soil moisture in three selected (LW03, LW13, LW21) footprints from the Southern Great Plains 1997 (SGP97) Hydrology Experiment. Better time-stable features were observed within a footprint containing sandy loam soil than within two pixels containing silty loam soil. Additionally, flat topography with split wheat/grass land cover produced the largest spatio-temporal variability and the least time stability in soil moisture patterns. A comparison of ground-based and remote sensing data showed that ESTAR footprint-average soil moisture was well calibrated for the LW03 pixel with sandy loam soil, rolling topography, and pasture land cover, but improved calibration is warranted for the LW13 (silty loam soil, rolling topography, pasture land) and LW21 (silty loam soil, flat topography, split vegetation of wheat and grass land with tillage practice) pixels. Footprint-scale variability and associated nonlinear soil moisture dynamics may prove to be critical in the regional-scale hydroclimatic models.     

Effects of land cover change on flood peak discharges and runoff volumes: model estimates for the Nyando River Basin,Kenya

The impacts of historical land cover changes witnessed between 1973 and 2000 on the hydrologic response of the Nyando River Basin were investigated. The land cover changes were obtained through consistent classifications of selected Landsat satellite images. Their effects on runoff peak discharges and volumes were subsequently assessed using selected hydrologic models for runoff generation and routing available within the HEC‐HMS. Physically based parameters of the models were estimated from the land cover change maps together with a digital elevation model and soil datasets of the basin. Observed storm events for the simulation were selected and their interpolated spatial distributions obtained using the univariate ordinary Kriging procedure. The simulated flows from the 14 sub‐catchments were routed downstream afterwards to obtain the accrued effects in the entire river basin. Model results obtained generally revealed significant and varying increases in the runoff peak discharges and volumes within the basin. In the upstream sub‐catchments with higher rates of deforestation, increases between 30 and 47% were observed in the peak discharge. In the entire basin, however, the flood peak discharges and volumes increased by at least 16 and 10% respectively during the entire study period. The study successfully outlined the hydrological consequences of the eminent land cover changes and hence the need for sustainable land use and catchment management strategies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Factors and interactions controlling infiltration,runoff, and soil loss at the microscale in a patchy Mediterranean semiarid landscape

In semiarid ecosystems, the transfer of water, sediments, and nutrients from bare to vegetated areas is known to be crucial to ecosystem functioning. Rainfall simulation experiments were performed on bare‐soil and vegetated surfaces, on both wet and dry soils, in semiarid shrub‐steppe landscapes of SE Spain to investigate the spatial and temporal factors and interactions that control the fine‐scale variation in water infiltration, runoff and soil loss, and hence the water and sediment flows in these areas. Three types of shrub‐steppe landscapes varying in plant community and physiography, and four types of plant patches (oak shrub, subshrub, tussock grass, and short grass mixed with chamaephytes) were studied. Higher infiltration and lower runoff and soil loss were measured on vegetation patches than on bare soils, for both dry and wet conditions. The oak‐shrub patches produced no runoff, while the subshrub patches showed the highest runoff and soil loss. Despite these differences among patch types, the influence of vegetation patch type on the variables analysed was not significant. The response of bare soil surfaces clearly varied between landscape types, yet the differences were only relevant under dry soil conditions. Stone cover, particularly the cover of embedded stones, and crust cover, were the key explanatory variables for the hydrological behaviour of bare soils. The study documents quantitatively how bare soils and vegetation patches function as runoff sources and runoff sinks, respectively, for a wide range of soil moisture conditions, and illustrates that landscape‐type effects on bare‐soil runoff sources may also exert an important control on the site hydrology, while the role of the vegetation patch type is less important. The effects of the control factors are modulated by antecedent soil moisture, with dry soils showing the most contrasting soil water infiltration between landscapes and surface types. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Land cover effects on runoff patterns in eastern Piedmont (USA) watersheds

Physiography and land cover determine the hydrologic response of watersheds to climatic events. However, vast differences in climate regimes and variation of landscape attributes among watersheds (including size) have prevented the establishment of general relationships between land cover and runoff patterns across broad scales. This paper addresses these difficulties by using power spectral analysis to characterize area‐normalized runoff patterns and then compare these patterns with landscape features among watersheds within the same physiographic region. We assembled long‐term precipitation and runoff data for 87 watersheds (first to seventh order) within the eastern Piedmont (USA) that contained a wide variety of land cover types, collected environmental data for each watershed, and compared the datasets using a variety of statistical measures. The effect of land cover on runoff patterns was confirmed. Urban‐dominated watersheds were flashier and had less hydrologic memory compared with forest‐dominated watersheds, whereas watersheds with high wetland coverage had greater hydrologic memory. We also detected a 10–15% urban threshold above which urban coverage became the dominant control on runoff patterns. When spectral properties of runoff were compared across stream orders, a threshold after the third order was detected at which watershed processes became dominant over precipitation regime in determining runoff patterns. Finally, we present a matrix that characterizes the hydrologic signatures of rivers based on precipitation versus landscape effects and low‐frequency versus high‐frequency events. The concepts and methods presented can be generally applied to all river systems to characterize multiscale patterns of watershed runoff. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Surface runoff and soil erosion under eucalyptus and oak canopy

To assess potential differences in stormwater runoff and sediment yield between plots of blue gum eucalyptus (Eucalyptus globulus) and coast live oak (Quercus agrifolia), we measured runoff, sediment yield, water repellency and soil moisture at eight paired sites. Eucalyptus has been associated in many studies worldwide with elevated soil water repellency and increased runoff, a likely contributor to soil erosion. To better understand these connections and their relationship to land cover, there is a need for studies employing either rainfall simulators or natural rainfall. Our research employs the latter, and was subject to contrasting hydrologic conditions in the two years of the study. Fieldwork was conducted from October 2006 to February 2008 in the San Francisco Bay Area of central California. During the 2006–2007 winter wet season, runoff was significantly higher under eucalypts than at paired oak sites, and in the early phases of the season was connected with elevated water repellency. However, sediment yield at all sites during the 2006–2007 hydrologic year was below the detection limit of the Gerlach sediment collection traps, possibly due to a limited wet season, and only appeared as suspended sediment captured in overflow buckets. Intensive rainfall events in January 2008 however created substantial runoff of sediment and litter with significantly greater yield at oak sites compared to paired eucalyptus sites. Water repellency likely had little effect on runoff during these events, and the primary cause of greater erosion under oaks is the thinner cover of leaf litter in comparison to eucalyptus. Our study is limited to undisturbed sites with intact litter cover that have not experienced recent wildfires; if disturbed, we would expect a different picture given the propensity for crown fires of eucalypts, enhancement of rainsplash erosion, and the likely greater potential for stream‐connected sediment yield from post‐disturbance soil erosion events.     

Simulated impacts of climate change and land‐clearing on runoff from a small Sahelian catchment

In the Sahel, there are few long‐term data series available to estimate the climatic and anthropogenic impacts on runoff in small catchments. Since 1950, land clearing has enhanced runoff. The question is whether and by how much this anthropogenic effect offsets the current drought. To answer this question, a physically based distributed hydrological model was used to simulate runoff in a small Sahelian catchment in Niger, from the 1950–1998 rain‐series. The simulation was carried out for three soil surface states of the catchment (1950, 1975 and 1992). The catchment is characterized by an increase in cultivated land, with associated fallow, from 6% in 1950 to 56% in 1992, together with an increase in the extent of eroded land (from 7 to 16%), at the expense of the savanna. Effects of climate and land use are first analysed separately: irrespective of the land cover state, the simulated mean annual runoff decreases by about 40% from the wet period (1950–1969) to the dry period (1970–1998); calculated on the 1950–1998 rainfall‐series, the changes that occurred in land cover between 1950 and 1992 multiplies the mean annual runoff by a factor close to three. The analysis of a joint climatic and anthropogenic change shows that the transition from a wet period under a ‘natural’ land cover (1950) to a dry period under a cultivated land cover (1992) results in an increase in runoff of the order of 30 to 70%. At the scale of a small Sahelian catchment, the anthropogenic impact on runoff is probably more important than that of drought. This figure for relative increase in runoff contributions to ponds, preferential sites of seepage to groundwater, is less than that currently estimated for aquifer recharge, which has been causing a significant continuous water table rise over the same period. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Detecting water yield variability due to the small proportional land use and land cover changes in a watershed on the Loess Plateau,China

Soil conservation practices have been widely implemented on the Loess Plateau to reduce severe soil erosion in north‐central China over the past three decades. However, the hydrologic impacts of these practices are not well documented and understood. The objective of this study was to examine how water yield has changed after implementing soil conservation practices that resulted in changes in land use and land cover in a small agriculture‐dominated watershed, the LuErGou Watershed in Tianshui City, Gansu Province, China. We collected 23 years of hydro‐meteorological data along with three land use surveys of 1982, 1989, and 2000. The land use survey in 2000 suggested that the soil conservation efforts resulted in a 16·6%, 4%, and 16% increase in area of grassland, forested land, and terraces respectively over the two periods from 1982 to 1988 (baseline) and 1989 to 2003 (soil conservation measures implemented). Rainfall–runoff regression models developed for both time periods at the annual and monthly time steps were used to examine the significance of change in water yield in the second time period. The averaged annual run‐off coefficient over 1989–2003 did not change significantly (at the α = 0·05 level) as compared to that in the period 1982–1988. However, we found that soil conservation practices that included re‐vegetation and terracing reduced water yield during wet periods. This study highlights the importance of the precipitation regime in regulating hydrologic effects of soil conservation measures in a semi‐arid environment. We concluded that adequately evaluating the effects of land use change and soil conservation measures on water yield must consider the climatic variability under an arid environment. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of a soil moisture‐based distributed hydrologic model for determining hydrologically based critical source areas

A simple grid cell‐based distributed hydrologic model was developed to provide spatial information on hydrologic components for determining hydrologically based critical source areas. The model represents the critical process (soil moisture variation) to run‐off generation accounting for both local and global water balance. In this way, it simulates both infiltration excess run‐off and saturation excess run‐off. The model was tested by multisite and multivariable evaluation on the 50‐km² Little River Experimental Watershed I in Georgia, U.S. and 2 smaller nested subwatersheds. Water balance, hydrograph, and soil moisture were simulated and compared to observed data. For streamflow calibration, the daily Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.78 at the watershed outlet and 0.56 and 0.75 at the 2 nested subwatersheds. For the validation period, the Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.79 at the watershed outlet and 0.85 and 0.83 at the 2 subwatersheds. The per cent bias was less than 15% for all sites. For soil moisture, the model also predicted the rising and declining trends at 4 of the 5 measurement sites. The spatial distribution of surface run‐off simulated by the model was mainly controlled by local characteristics (precipitation, soil properties, and land cover) on dry days and by global watershed characteristics (relative position within the watershed and hydrologic connectivity) on wet days when saturation excess run‐off was simulated. The spatial details of run‐off generation and travel time along flow paths provided by the model are helpful for watershed managers to further identify critical source areas of non‐point source pollution and develop best management practices.     

Macroscale hydrological modelling approach for study of large scale hydrologic impacts under climate change in Indian river basins

In climate‐change studies, a macroscale hydrologic model (MHM) operating over large scales can be an important tool in developing consistent hydrological variability estimates over large basins. MHMs, which can operate at coarse grid resolutions of about 1° latitude by longitude, have been used previously to study climate change impacts on the hydrology of continental scale or global river basins. They can provide a connection between global atmospheric models and water resource systems on large spatial scales and long timescales. In this study, the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) MHM is used to study large scale hydrologic impacts of climate change for Indian river basins. Large‐scale changes in runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture for India, as well as station‐scale changes in discharges for three major river basins with distinct climatic and geographic characteristics are examined in this study. Climate model projections for meteorological variables (precipitation, temperature and wind speed) from three general circulation models (GCMs) and three emissions scenarios are used to drive the VIC MHM. GCM projections are first interpolated to a 1° by 1° hydrologic model grid and then bias‐corrected using a quantile–quantile mapping. The VIC model is able to reproduce observed statistics for discharges in the Ganga, Narmada and Krishna basins reasonably well, even at the coarse grid resolution employed using a calibration period for years 1965–1970 and testing period from 1971–1973/1974. An increasing trend is projected for summer monsoon surface runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture in most central Indian river basins, whereas a decrease in runoff and soil moisture is projected for some regions in southern India, with important differences arising from GCM and scenario variability. Discharge statistics show increases in mid‐flow and low flow at Farakka station on Ganga River, increased high flows at Jamtara station upstream of Narmada, and increased high, mid‐flow and low flow for Vijayawada station on Krishna River in the future. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Runoff curve numbers for steep hillslopes with natural vegetation in semi‐arid tropical highlands,northern Ethiopia

Daily runoff from 27 plots (5 m × 2 m) recorded during two rainy seasons in the Tigray highlands (Ethiopia) were analysed together with daily rainfall to calculate runoff curve numbers for hillslopes covered by semi‐natural vegetation in varying stages of vegetation restoration. Curve number model parameters were derived using a least squares fitting procedure on the collected rainfall–runoff datasets. Curve numbers varied from 29 to 97. Land use type was an important explanatory factor for the variation in curve numbers, whereas hydrologic soil group was not. Curve numbers were negatively correlated with vegetation cover. Taking into account antecedent soil moisture conditions did not improve runoff prediction using the curve number method. As runoff prediction was less accurate in areas with low curve numbers, two separate regression functions relating curve numbers with vegetation cover were proposed for different land use types. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity of streamflow simulation in the Delaware River Basin to forecasted land‐cover change for 2030 and 2060

In order to simulate the potential effect of forecasted land‐cover change on streamflow and water availability, there has to be confidence that the hydrologic model used is sensitive to small changes in land cover (<10%) and that this land‐cover change exceeds the inherent uncertainty in forecasted conditions. To investigate this, a 26‐year streamflow record was simulated for 33 basins (54–928 km²) in the Delaware River Basin using three dates of land cover: the 2011 National Land‐Cover Dataset (Homer, Fry, & Barnes, 2012 ), 2030 land‐cover conditions representing median values from 101 equally‐likely forecasts, and 2060 land‐cover conditions corresponding to the same iterations used to represent 2030. Streamflow was simulated using a process‐based hydrologic model that includes both pervious and impervious methods as parameterized by three land‐cover‐based hydrologic response units (HRUs)—forested, agricultural, and developed land. Small, but significant differences in streamflow magnitude, variability, and seasonality were seen among the three time periods—2011, 2030, and 2060. Temporal differences were discernible from the range of conditions simulated with 101 equally likely forecasts for 2030. Development was co‐located with the most frequent landscape components, as characterized by topographic wetness index, resulting in a change in hydrology for each HRU, highlighting that knowing the location of disturbance is key to understanding potential streamflow changes. These results show that streamflow simulation using regional calibration that incorporates land‐cover‐based HRUs can be sensitive to relatively small changes in land‐cover and that temporal trends resulting from land‐cover change can be isolated in order to evaluate other changes that might affect water resources.     

Sensitivity of runoff and soil erosion to climate change in two Mediterranean watersheds. Part II: assessing impacts from changes in storm rainfall,soil moisture and vegetation cover

The impacts of climate change on storm runoff and erosion in Mediterranean watersheds are difficult to assess due to the expected increase in storm frequency coupled with a decrease in total rainfall and soil moisture, added to positive or negative changes to different types of vegetation cover. This report, the second part of a two‐part article, addresses this issue by analysing the sensitivity of runoff and erosion to incremental degrees of change (from ? 20 to + 20%) to storm rainfall, pre‐storm soil moisture, and vegetation cover, in two Mediterranean watersheds, using the MEFIDIS model. The main results point to the high sensitivity of storm runoff and peak runoff rates to changes in storm rainfall (2·2% per 1% change) and, to a lesser degree, to soil water content (?1·2% per 1% change). Catchment sediment yield shows a greater sensitivity than within‐watershed erosion rates to both parameters: 7·8 versus 4·0% per 1% change for storm rainfall, and ? 4·9 versus ? 2·3% per 1% change for soil water content, indicating an increase in sensitivity with spatial scale due to changes to sediment connectivity within the catchment. Runoff and erosion showed a relatively low sensitivity to changes in vegetation cover. Finally, the shallow soils in one of the catchments led to a greater sensitivity to changes in storm rainfall and soil moisture. Overall, the results indicate that decreasing soil moisture levels caused by climate change could be sufficient to offset the impact of greater storm intensity in Mediterranean watersheds. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating hydrologic effects of spatial and temporal patterns of forest canopy change using numerical modelling

Although hydrologic responses to land cover changes are often studied using a paired watershed approach, it is not feasible to assess the hydrological effects of many different patterns of land cover alteration by empirical studies alone. An alternative is to use well validated, spatially explicit, physically based numerical models to estimate watershed storage and flux dynamics. The objectives of this study were to assess the sensitivity of watershed flow regimes to several spatial and temporal patterns of forest harvest and recovery in a snow‐dominated mountain watershed. The Distributed Hydrology Soil‐Vegetation Model (DHSVM) was parameterized using 1998–2007 climate data for the 28‐km² Mica Creek Experimental Watershed (MCEW), a headwater catchment in the inland Pacific Northwest. The modelling experiment indicated that clear‐cutting the entire watershed would increase runoff volume by 79% and 5^th percentile flows by 68%. Hydrologic recovery resulting from forest regeneration after clear‐cut harvesting is expected to take up to 25 years to return to baseline conditions, and 50 years to fully recover to preharvest conditions. A more realistic harvesting scenario where the watershed was gradually harvested in a series of clear‐cut blocks allowing for subsequent regeneration to occur was also assessed. This approach reduced the magnitude of hydrologic alteration. Analysis of several other scenarios, defined by aspect, elevation, and distance to the stream network, revealed that flow regime was more sensitive to the amount of alteration rather than pattern and landscape position of disturbance. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Two‐dimensional continuous simulation of spatiotemporally varied hydrological processes using the time‐area method

Distributed, continuous hydrologic models promote better understanding of hydrology and enable integrated hydrologic analyses by providing a more detailed picture of water transport processes across the varying landscape. However, such models are not widely used in routine modelling practices, due in part to the extensive data input requirements, computational demands, and complexity of routing algorithms. We developed a two‐dimensional continuous hydrologic model, HYSTAR, using a time‐area method within a grid‐based spatial data model with the goal of providing an alternative way to simulate spatiotemporally varied watershed‐scale hydrologic processes. The model calculates the direct runoff hydrograph by coupling a time‐area routing scheme with a dynamic rainfall excess sub‐model implemented here using a modified curve number method with an hourly time step, explicitly considering downstream ‘reinfiltration’ of routed surface runoff. Soil moisture content is determined at each time interval based on a water balance equation, and overland and channel runoff is routed on time‐area maps, representing spatial variation in hydraulic characteristics for each time interval in a storm event. Simulating runoff hydrographs does not depend on unit hydrograph theory or on solution of the Saint Venant equation, yet retains the simplicity of a unit hydrograph approach and the capability of explicitly simulating two‐dimensional flow routing. The model provided acceptable performance in predicting daily and monthly runoff for a 6‐year period for a watershed in Virginia (USA) using readily available geographic information about the watershed landscape. Spatial and temporal variability in simulated effective runoff depth and time area maps dynamically show the areas of the watershed contributing to the direct runoff hydrograph at the outlet over time, consistent with the variable source area overland flow generation mechanism. The model offers a way to simulate watershed processes and runoff hydrographs using the time‐area method, providing a simple, efficient, and sound framework that explicitly represents mechanisms of spatially and temporally varied hydrologic processes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of reduced land cover detail on hydrological model response

Problems related to scale continue to be at the forefront of research in hydrology. Past research into issues of scale has focused mainly on digital elevation model grid size, the appropriate number and size of sub‐areas for subdividing a watershed, parameter transferability between watersheds and appropriate scales for linking hydrological and general circulation models. Much less attention has been given to the effects of scale on the representation of land cover and hydrological model response. Recent studies with respect to changes in land cover and hydrologic response have tended to focus on the issue of land cover maturity and the conversion of land through agricultural and forestry practices. The focus of this study is to examine the impact of the level of detail at which land cover is represented in modelling the hydrological response of Wolf Creek Basin in northwest Canada. A grid‐based land cover map with a spatial resolution of 30 m is coarsened or smoothed using several common grid‐based methods of aggregating categorical data, including: pixel thinning, modal smoothing and modal aggregation. A majority rule method based on polygons is also applied to the 30 m base cover. The SLURP hydrologic model is calibrated for the base cover and used as a reference for comparing simulations for the coarsened or ‘generalized’ land cover maps. Results of the simulations are compared to examine the sensitivity of hydrologic response to generalized land cover information. Comparisons of the SLURP model runs for Wolf Creek suggest that reducing the level of detail of land cover information generally has a limited effect on hydrologic response at the outlet. However, results for averages of water balance components across the basin suggest that the local variability of hydrologic response is affected in general. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

HydroBlocks: a field‐scale resolving land surface model for application over continental extents

Land surface spatial heterogeneity plays a significant role in the water, energy, and carbon cycles over a range of temporal and spatial scales. Until now, the representation of this spatial heterogeneity in land surface models has been limited to over simplistic schemes because of computation and environmental data limitations. This study introduces HydroBlocks – a novel land surface model that represents field‐scale spatial heterogeneity of land surface processes through interacting hydrologic response units (HRUs). HydroBlocks is a coupling between the Noah‐MP land surface model and the Dynamic TOPMODEL hydrologic model. The HRUs are defined by clustering proxies of the drivers of spatial heterogeneity using high‐resolution land data. The clustering mechanism allows for each HRU's results to be mapped out in space, facilitating field‐scale application and validation. The Little Washita watershed in the USA is used to assess HydroBlocks' performance and added benefit from traditional land surface models. A comparison between the semi‐distributed and fully distributed versions of the model suggests that using 1000 HRUs is sufficient to accurately approximate the fully distributed solution. A preliminary evaluation of model performance using available in situ soil moisture observations suggests that HydroBlocks is generally able to reproduce the observed spatial and temporal dynamics of soil moisture. Model performance deficiencies can be primarily attributed to parameter uncertainty. HydroBlocks' ability to explicitly resolve field‐scale spatial heterogeneity while only requiring an increase in computation of one to two orders of magnitude when compared with existing land surface models is encouraging – ensemble field‐scale land surface modelling over continental extents is now possible. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hortonian overland flow from Japanese forest plantations—an aberration,the real thing,or something in between?

There is a growing opinion that poorly managed plantation forests in Japan are contributing to increased storm runoff and erosion. Here we present evidence to the contrary from runoff plots at two scales (hillslope and 0·5 × 2 m plots) for several forest conditions in the Mie and Nariki catchments. Runoff coefficients from small plots in untended hinoki forests were variable but typically higher than from better managed or deciduous forests during small storms at Nariki; at Mie, runoff during small events was highly variable from all small plots but runoff coefficients were similar for hinoki plots with and without understory vegetation, while the deciduous plot had lower runoff coefficients. Storm runoff was less at the hillslope scale than the plot scale in Mie; these results were more evident at sites with better ground cover. During the largest storms at both sites, differences in runoff due to forest condition were not evident regardless of scale. Dynamic soil moisture tension measurements at Nariki indicated that during a large storm, flow in the upper organic‐rich and root‐permeated soil horizons was 3·2 times higher than measured overland runoff from a small hinoki plot with poor ground cover and 8·3 times higher than runoff from a deciduous forest plot. On the basis of field observations during storms, at least a portion of the monitored ‘Hortonian overland flow’ was actually occurring in this near‐surface ‘biomat’. Therefore our field measurements in both small and large plots potentially included biomat flow in addition to short‐lived Hortonian runoff. Because overland flow decreased with increasing scale, rill erosion did not occur on hillslopes. Additionally, runoff coefficients were not significantly different among cover conditions during large storms; thus, the ‘degraded’ forest conditions appear not to greatly enhance peak flows or erosion potential at larger scales, especially when biomat flow is significant. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrologic response to future land use change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin by the end of 21st century

This study demonstrates the spatial variation in hydrologic processes across the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) by the end of 21st century, by ingesting FOREcasting Scenarios (FORE‐SCE) of Land‐use Change projections into a physics‐based hydrologic model—Soil and Water Assessment Tool. The model is created for UMRB (440,000 km²), using the National Landcover Database of year 2001 and climate data of 1991–2010. Considering 1991–2010 as the baseline reference period, FORE‐SCE projections of year 2091 under three scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) are separately assimilated into the calibrated model, whereas climate input is kept the same as in the baseline. Modeling results suggest an increase of 0.5% and 3.5% in the average annual streamflow at the basin outlet (Grafton, Illinois) during 2081–2100, respectively, for A1B and A2, whereas for B1, streamflow would decrease by 1.5%. Under the “worst case” A2 scenario, 6% and 133% increase, respectively, in agricultural and urban areas with 30% depletion of forest and grassland would result into 70% increase in surface runoff, 20% decrease in soil moisture, and 4% decrease in evapotranspiration in certain parts of the basin. Conversion of cropland, forest, or grassland to perennial hay/pasture areas would lower surface runoff by 25% especially in the central region, whereas persistent forest cover in the northern region would cause up to 7% increase in evapotranspiration. The ecosystem in the lower half of UMRB is likely to become adverse, as dictated by a composite water–energy balance indicator. Future land use change extents and resultant hydrologic responses are found significantly different under A2, A1B, and B1 scenarios, which resonates the need for multi‐scenario ensemble assessments towards characterizing a probable future. The spatial variation of hydrologic processes as shown here helps to identify potential “hot spots,” giving ways to adopt more effective policy alternatives at regional level.