Modelling catchment‐scale shallow landslide occurrence and sediment yield as a function of rainfall return period

A model‐based method is proposed for improving upon existing threshold relationships which define the rainfall conditions for triggering shallow landslides but do not allow the magnitude of landsliding (i.e. the number of landslides) to be determined. The SHETRAN catchment‐scale shallow landslide model is used to quantify the magnitude of landsliding as a function of rainfall return period, for focus sites of 180 and 45 km² in the Italian Southern Alps and the central Spanish Pyrenees. Rainfall events with intensities of different return period are generated for a range of durations (1‐day to 5‐day) and applied to the model to give the number of landslides triggered and the resulting sediment yield for each event. For a given event duration, simulated numbers of landslides become progressively less sensitive to return period as return period increases. Similarly, for an event of given return period, landslide magnitude becomes less sensitive to event duration as duration increases. The temporal distribution of rainfall within an event is shown to have a significant impact on the number of landslides and the timing of their occurrence. The contribution of shallow landsliding to catchment sediment yield is similarly quantified as a function of the rainfall characteristics. Rainfall intensity–duration curves are presented which define different levels of landsliding magnitude and which advance our predictive capability beyond, but are generally consistent with, published threshold curves. The magnitude curves are relevant to the development of guidelines for landslide hazard assessment and forecasting. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

降雨条件下边坡体积含水率变化规律研究

持续降雨是边坡发生失稳破坏的主要诱因之一,基于饱和—非饱和渗流理论,对梅州市大埔县某边坡的渗流场进行模拟,研究在不同降雨工况下该边坡土体体积含水率的时空变化规律。研究结果表明:相同条件下,降雨强度越大(降雨历时越长),边坡表层土体体积含水率变化越大;降雨强度60 mm/d历时1 d的暴雨对边坡表层土体体积含水率的增幅作用存在着一定的滞后性,其余工况未表现出滞后现象;降雨强度为120mm/d和300 mm/d的两种工况各研究点任意时段体积含水率较为接近;当降雨强度达到60 mm/d以上时,边坡内部体积含水率空间变化主要受降雨历时影响,降雨历时越长,降雨入渗深度和体积含水率变化越大。     

Comparison of the return period for landslide-triggering rainfall events in Japan based on standardization of the rainfall period

The intensity of rainfall events with potential to cause landslides has varying temporal characteristics. In this study, the time at which the 72-h accumulated rainfall reached its maximum was used to standardize the period of rainfall measurement. The proposed standardization of the rainfall period was used in conjunction with the return level of rainfall intensity, obtained from intensity–duration–frequency curves, to investigate rainfall intensity anomalies associated with 10 hazardous rainfall events that triggered numerous landslides at the regional scale in Japan. These landslides included shallow landslides in volcanic and non-volcanic areas, as well as deep-seated landslides. The rainfall events that triggered the shallow landslides were divided into two types: downpours that repeatedly reached close to the 100-year return level within approximately 3–4 h, and accumulated rainfall that reached close to 200–400 mm over longer time intervals but within 72 h. Lithological differences seemed unrelated to the differences between the two types of shallow-landslide-triggering rainfall; however, precipitation >1000 mm was necessary to trigger deep-seated landslides. Although the characteristics of the hyetographs differed markedly among the landslide-triggering rainfall events, all the landslides could have been triggered when the mean rainfall intensity reached the 100-year rainfall level during the standardized period. Thus, the landslide trigger can be evaluated indirectly based on the increase in the return level of the mean rainfall intensity, which could provide a means for estimating the time of landslide occurrence.     

山西大宁县典型滑坡体地貌特征与降雨和强震关系

山西大宁县位于山西省吕梁山南端，境内沟壑纵横，具有独特的黄土高原地形地貌特征。在该地区进行地质灾害调查，以查明灾害分布、形成原因和隐患情况。应用地貌学的有关原理，结合遥感影像解译，在义亭河的支流河谷两岸0.3 km²（575 m×526 m）范围内发现并确认了2个大型和2个中型滑坡体。滑坡体均为基岩与上方的黄土沉积层整体滑下，滑坡体沿河流流动的方向发生一定程度的扭转，滑面近于直立，滑动方向与河流流向一致，没有形成堰塞湖。对滑坡体与周围地貌特征，以及河道被改动的方向特征研究认为：①4个滑坡体是在不同的地质时期形成；②其中1个滑坡体明显受到一条断裂的影响；③其它3个滑坡体，可能是在河流侵蚀搬运作用加强，导致的"重力塌陷"，及河流流向作用牵引的动力学作用下，经过较漫长的时间形成；④在距离该地区约60 km的洪洞地震、临汾地震，以及距离该地区230余公里的华县地震，这三次8级地震过程中，地震应力可能加剧了滑坡体的发生或滑动；⑤未来该滑坡体，仍然可能在非常规的外界条件下，如强降雨或地震应力等的影响下，出现加速滑动的可能。     

Spatial variability of rainfall on a sub‐kilometre scale

The variability of rainfall in space and time is an essential driver of many processes in nature but little is known about its extent on the sub‐kilometre scale, despite many agricultural and environmental experiments on this scale. A network of 13 tipping‐bucket rain gauges was operated on a 1·4 km² test site in southern Germany for four years to quantify spatial trends in rainfall depth, intensity, erosivity, and predicted runoff. The random measuring error ranged from 10% to 0·1% in case of 1 mm and 100 mm rainfall, respectively. The wind effects could be well described by the mean slope of the horizon at the stations. Except for one station, which was excluded from further analysis, the relative differences due to wind were in maximum ±5%. Gradients in rainfall depth representing the 1‐km² scale derived by linear regressions were much larger and ranged from 1·0 to 15·7 mm km^?1 with a mean of 4·2 mm km^?1 (median 3·3 mm km^?1). They mainly developed during short bursts of rain and thus gradients were even larger for rain intensities and caused a variation in rain erosivity of up to 255% for an individual event. The trends did not have a single primary direction and thus level out on the long term, but for short‐time periods or for single events the assumption of spatially uniform rainfall is invalid on the sub‐kilometre scale. The strength of the spatial trend increased with rain intensity. This has important implications for any hydrological or geomorphologic process sensitive to maximum rain intensities, especially when focusing on large, rare events. These sub‐kilometre scale differences are hence highly relevant for environmental processes acting on short‐time scales like flooding or erosion. They should be considered during establishing, validating and application of any event‐based runoff or erosion model. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

“集中降雨”与浅层承压井水位及区域地震活动关系的初步研究

以陕西省宝鸡市凤翔井为例,统计分析了2001-2006年降雨与地下水位之间的关系,发现"集中降雨"对浅井水位的影响较为明显,并在一定降雨量范围内呈指数关系.讨论了降雨通过荷载、进入断层面及改变地下水位埋深三个方面的作用改变了断层的有效应力,这种区域构造应力场的调整可能对区域中强地震活动具有触发作用.     

Projecting climate change impacts on stream flow regimes with tracer‐aided runoff models ‐ preliminary assessment of heterogeneity at the mesoscale

The northern mid‐high latitudes form a region that is sensitive to climate change, and many areas already have seen – or are projected to see – marked changes in hydroclimatic drivers on catchment hydrological function. In this paper, we use tracer‐aided conceptual runoff models to investigate such impacts in a mesoscale (749 km²) catchment in northern Scotland. The catchment encompasses both sub‐arctic montane sub‐catchments with high precipitation and significant snow influence and drier, warmer lowland sub‐catchments. We used downscaled HadCM3 General Circulation Model outputs through the UKCP09 stochastic weather generator to project the future climate. This was based on synthetic precipitation and temperature time series generated from three climate change scenarios under low, medium and high greenhouse gas emissions. Within an uncertainty framework, we examined the impact of climate change at the monthly, seasonal and annual scales and projected impacts on flow regimes in upland and lowland sub‐catchments using hydrological models with appropriate process conceptualization for each landscape unit. The results reveal landscape‐specific sensitivity to climate change. In the uplands, higher temperatures result in diminishing snow influence which increases winter flows, with a concomitant decline in spring flows as melt reduces. In the lowlands, increases in air temperatures and re‐distribution of precipitation towards autumn and winter lead to strongly reduced summer flows despite increasing annual precipitation. The integration at the catchment outlet moderates these seasonal extremes expected in the headwaters. This highlights the intimate connection between hydrological dynamics and catchment characteristics which reflect landscape evolution. It also indicates that spatial variability of changes in climatic forcing combined with differential landscape sensitivity in large heterogeneous catchments can lead to higher resilience of the integrated runoff response. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rocking amplification and strong‐motion duration

This paper characterizes the ability of natural ground motions to induce rocking demands on rigid structures. In particular, focusing on rocking blocks of different size and slenderness subjected to a large number of historic earthquake records, the study unveils the predominant importance of the strong‐motion duration to rocking amplification (ie, peak rocking response without overturning). It proposes original dimensionless intensity measures (IMs), which capture the total duration (or total impulse accordingly) of the time intervals during which the ground motion is capable of triggering rocking motion. The results show that the proposed duration‐based IMs outperform all other examined (intensity, frequency, duration, and/or energy‐based) scalar IMs in terms of both “efficiency” and “sufficiency.” Further, the pertinent probabilistic seismic demand models offer a prediction of the peak rocking demand, which is adequately “universal” and of satisfactory accuracy. Lastly, the analysis shows that an IM that “efficiently” captures rocking amplification is not necessarily an “efficient” IM for predicting rocking overturning, which is dominated by the velocity characteristics (eg, peak velocity) of the ground motion.     

The Volume Calculation Method of Rock Collapses and Loess Landslides Triggered by the 1556 AD Huaxian M8 1/2 Earthquake in Shaanxi Province, China

Accurate volume calculation of each individual landslide triggered by strong historical earthquakes can help understand the characteristics of the typical earthquake-induced landslides, thus providing significant information for the modification of the focal parameters of historical earthquakes. In this study, we select one rock fall and three loess landslides triggered by the 1556 AD Huaxian M8 1/2 earthquake, compute their volumes using the low-altitude high-precision Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) photogrammetry and landslide profile restoration methods. The results show that:① the whole influencing area of the Huangjiagou Rock Fall is approximately 3.03×10⁵ m² and the area of the collapsed rock accumulated at the slope foot is 3.33×10⁴ m², accounting for approximately 10% of the entire influencing range. However, the estimated volume of the collapsed rock is only 0.699×10⁶ m³, indicating a rock fall with large influencing range but limited collapsed rock; ② the geological form of thethree loess landslides are preserved intactly, with volumes of 0.283×10⁸ m³, 0.074×10⁸ m³, and 0.377×10⁸ m³. These important geological hazard relics reflect the strong vibrations and severe casualties in the meizoseismal area; ③ loess landslides are the key reason of the serious death toll in the hilly-gully loess area. Our new method can be used to estimate the influencing area and the actual volume of each individual landslide, and rationally evaluate the role of earthquake landslides in the disaster. In addition, quantitative research on secondary disasters triggered by strong historical earthquakes is beneficial for understanding the surface process and focal parameters of the earthquakes.     

Post‐fire bedload sediment delivery across spatial scales in the interior western United States

Post‐fire sediment yields can be up to three orders of magnitude greater than sediment yields in unburned forests. Much of the research on post‐fire erosion rates has been at small scales (100 m² or less), and post‐fire sediment delivery rates across spatial scales have not been quantified in detail. We developed relationships for post‐fire bedload sediment delivery rates for spatial scales up to 117 ha using sediment yield data from six published studies and two recently established study sites. Sediment yields and sediment delivery ratios (SDRs; sediment delivered at the catchment scale divided by the sediment delivered from a plot nested within the catchment) were related to site factors including rainfall characteristics, area, length, and ground cover. Unit‐area sediment yields significantly decreased with increasing area in five of the six sites. The annual SDRs ranged from 0.0089 to 1.15 and these were more closely related to the ratio of the plot lengths than the ratio of plot areas. The developed statistical relationships will help quantify post‐fire sediment delivery rates across spatial scales in the interior western United States and develop process‐based scaling relationships. Published in 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Rainfall infiltration‐derived submarine groundwater discharge from multi‐layered aquifer system terminating at the coastline

This article investigates the quantity of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) from a coastal multi‐layered aquifer system in response to constant rainfall infiltration. The system comprises an unconfined aquifer, a leaky confined aquifer and an aquitard between them and terminates at the coastline. An approximate analytical solution is derived based on the following assumptions: (i) flow is horizontal in the aquifers and vertical in the aquitard, and (ii) flow in the unconfined aquifer is described by nonlinear Boussinesq equation. The analytical solution is compared with numerical solutions of the strictly two‐dimensional nonlinear model to validate the model assumptions used for the analytical solution. The SGD from the leaky confined aquifer increases with the inland rainfall infiltration recharge and the specific leakage of aquitard. The maximum SGD ranges from 1·87 to 10·37 m³ per day per meter of shoreline when rainfall infiltration ranges from 18·2 to 182 mm/year and the specific leakage of aquitard varies from 10^?9 to 10^?1 l/day. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysing two‐dimensional effects in central loop transient electromagnetic sounding data using a semi‐synthetic tipper approach

We present a simple and feasible approach to analyse and identify two‐dimensional effects in central loop transient electromagnetic sounding data and the correspondingly derived quasi two‐dimensional conductivity models. The proposed strategy is particularly useful in minimising interpretation errors. It is based on the calculation of a semi‐synthetic transient electromagnetic tipper at each sounding and for each observational transient time point. The semi‐synthetic transient electromagnetic tipper is derived from the measured vertical component of the induced voltage and the synthetically calculated horizontal component. The approach is computationally inexpensive and involves one two‐dimensional forward calculation of an obtained quasi two‐dimensional conductivity section. Based on a synthetic example, we demonstrate that the transient electromagnetic tipper approach is applicable in identifying which transient data points and which corresponding zones in a derived quasi two‐dimensional subsurface model are affected by two‐dimensional inhomogeneities. The one‐dimensional inversion of such data leads to false models. An application of the semi‐synthetic transient electromagnetic tipper to field data from the Azraq basin in Jordan reveals that, in total, eight of 80 investigated soundings are affected by two‐dimensional structures although the field data can be fitted optimally using one‐dimensional inversion techniques. The largest semi‐synthetic tipper response occurs in a 300 m‐wide region around a strong lateral resistivity contrast. The approach is useful for analysing structural features in derived quasi two‐dimensional sections and for qualitatively investigating how these features affect the transient response. To avoid misinterpretation, these identified zones corresponding to large tipper values are excluded from the interpretation of a quasi two‐dimensional conductivity model. Based on the semi‐synthetic study, we also demonstrate that a quantitative interpretation of the horizontal voltage response (e.g. by inversion) is usually not feasible as it requires the exact sensor position to be known. Although a tipper derived purely from field data is useful as a qualitative tool for identifying two‐dimensional distortion effects, it is only feasible if the sensor setup is sufficiently accurate. Our proposed semi‐synthetic transient electromagnetic tipper approach is particularly feasible as an a posteriori approach if no horizontal components are recorded or if the sensor setup in the field is not sufficiently accurate.     

An improved AMC‐coupled runoff curve number model

In the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS‐CN) method, the three levels of antecedent moisture condition (AMC) permit unreasonable sudden jumps in curve numbers, which result into corresponding jumps in the estimated runoff. A few recently developed SCS‐CN‐based models obviate this problem, yet they have several limitations. In this study, such a model incorporating a continuous function for antecedent moisture has been presented. It has several advantages over the other existing SCS‐CN‐based models. Its application to a large dataset from US watersheds showed to perform better than the existing SCS‐CN method and the others based on it. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of climate change on water availability in the Macquarie‐Castlereagh River Basin in Australia

The impact of future climate on runoff generation and the implications of these changes for management of water resources in a river basin are investigated by running these changes through catchment and river system models. Two conceptual daily rainfall‐runoff models are used to simulate runoff across the Macquarie‐Castlereagh region for historical (1895–2006) and future (～2030) climate based on outputs from 15 of the 23 IPCC AR4 GCMs for the A1B global warming scenario. The estimates of future runoff are used as inputs to the river system model. The mean annual historical rainfall averaged across the Macquarie‐Castlereagh region is 544 mm and the simulated runoff is 34 and 30 mm for SIMHYD and Sacramento rainfall‐runoff models, respectively. The mean annual future rainfall and runoff across the region are projected to decrease. The modelling results show a median estimate of a 5% reduction for SIMHYD (50% confidence interval ? 11 to + 7%) and a 7% reduction for Sacramento (50% confidence interval ? 15 to + 8%) in mean annual runoff under a ～2030 climate for the region. The results from the river system modelling indicate that under the ～2030 climate scenario, the median of general security and supplementary diversions are projected to decrease by 4% (50% confidence interval ? 10 to + 5%) and 2% (50% confidence interval ? 5 to + 3%) respectively for the SIMHYD inflows and 8% (50% confidence interval ? 17 to + 6%) and 5% (50% confidence interval ? 11 to + 3%) for the Sacramento inflows. The future annual and seasonal storage volumes for the Burrendong Dam and inflows at all major locations across the region are projected to be lower than the historical records. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Spatial Distribution and Attribute Parameter Statistics of Landslides Triggered by the May 12th, 2008, MW7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake

A complete landslide inventory and attribute database is the importantly fundamental for the study of the earthquake-induced landslide. Substantial landslides were triggered by the M_W7.9 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12^th, 2008. Google Earth images of pre- and post-earthquakes show that 52 194 co-seismic landslides were recognized and mapped, with a total landslides area of 1 021 km².Based on the statistics,we assigned all landslide parameters and established the co-seismic landslides database, which includes area, length, and width of landslides, elevation of the scarp top and foot edge, and the top and bottom elevations of each located slope. Finally, the spatial distribution and the above attribute parameters of landslides were analyzed. The results show that the spatial distribution of the co-seismic landslides is extremely uneven. The landslides that mainly occur in a rectangular area (a width of 30 km of the hanging wall of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault and a length of 120 km between Yingxiu and Beichuan) are obviously controlled by surface rupture, terrain, and peak ground acceleration. Meanwhile, a large number of small landslides (individual landslide area less than 10 000 m²)contribute less to the total landslides area. The number of landslides larger than 10 000 m² accounts for 38.7% of the total number of co-seismic landslides, while the area of those landslides account for 88% of the total landslides area. The 52 194 co-seismic landslides are caused by bedrock collapse that usually consists of three parts:source area, transport area, and accumulation area. However, based on the area-volume power-law relationship, the resulting regional landslide volume may be much larger than the true landslide volume if the landslide volume is calculated using the influenced area from each landslide.     

An integrated hydrological model for rain‐induced landslide prediction

This paper describes an extension to the Combined Hydrology And Stability Model (CHASM) to fully include the effects of vegetation and slope plan topography on slope stability. The resultant physically based numerical model is designed to be applied to site‐specific slopes in which a detailed assessment of unsaturated and saturated hydrology is required in relation to vegetation, topography and slope stability. Applications are made to the Hawke's Bay region in New Zealand where shallow‐seated instability is strongly associated with spatial and temporal trends in vegetation cover types, and the Mid‐Levels region in Hong Kong, an area subject to a variety of landslide mechanisms, some of which may be subject to strong topographic control. An improved understanding of process mechanism, afforded by the model, is critical for reliable and appropriate design of slope stabilization and remedial measures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rainfall,runoff and erosion on bare arable soils in east Shropshire,England

The magnitude, frequency, and duration of erosive rainfall on bare arable soils is investigated within an area of sandy soils in east Shropshire. Rainfall parameters are compared with runoff and erosion from ten 25 m² runoff plots, maintained in a bare condition on slopes of varying steepness. On rain-drop compacted (capped) soils measured erosion rates of ≦ 42.7t ha^?1 occur during individual storms. Erosion rates increase markedly with slope and on slopes > ? 13° are largely attributable to rill erosion. Prolonged duration, low intensity events cause relatively little erosion; most is accomplished by short duration, high intensity (> 10 mm h^?1) convective rainstorms. Comparison of measured erosion-producing events and long-term rainfall records indicate that potentially erosive storms are quite frequent, and are most likely to cause erosion in late spring/early summer.     

Effects of conditional parameterization on performance of rainfall‐runoff model regarding hydrologic non‐stationarity

Better parameterization of a hydrological model can lead to improved streamflow prediction. This is particularly important for seasonal streamflow forecasting with the use of hydrological modelling. Considering the possible effects of hydrologic non‐stationarity, this paper examined ten parameterization schemes at 12 catchments located in three different climatic zones in east Australia. These schemes are grouped into four categories according to the period when the data are used for model calibration, i.e. calibration using data: (1) from a fixed period in the historical records; (2) from different lengths of historical records prior to prediction year; (3) from different climatic analogue years in the past; and (4) data from the individual months. Parameterization schemes were evaluated according to model efficiency in both the calibration and verification period. The results show that the calibration skill changes with the different historic periods when data are used at all catchments. Comparison of model performance between the calibration schemes indicates that it is worth calibrating the model with the use of data from each individual month for the purpose of seasonal streamflow forecasting. For the catchments in the winter‐dominant rainfall region of south‐east Australia, a more significant shift in rainfall‐runoff relationships at different periods was found. For those catchments, model calibration with the use of 20 years of data prior to the prediction year leads to a more consistent performance. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.