Development of a soil moisture‐based distributed hydrologic model for determining hydrologically based critical source areas

A simple grid cell‐based distributed hydrologic model was developed to provide spatial information on hydrologic components for determining hydrologically based critical source areas. The model represents the critical process (soil moisture variation) to run‐off generation accounting for both local and global water balance. In this way, it simulates both infiltration excess run‐off and saturation excess run‐off. The model was tested by multisite and multivariable evaluation on the 50‐km² Little River Experimental Watershed I in Georgia, U.S. and 2 smaller nested subwatersheds. Water balance, hydrograph, and soil moisture were simulated and compared to observed data. For streamflow calibration, the daily Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.78 at the watershed outlet and 0.56 and 0.75 at the 2 nested subwatersheds. For the validation period, the Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.79 at the watershed outlet and 0.85 and 0.83 at the 2 subwatersheds. The per cent bias was less than 15% for all sites. For soil moisture, the model also predicted the rising and declining trends at 4 of the 5 measurement sites. The spatial distribution of surface run‐off simulated by the model was mainly controlled by local characteristics (precipitation, soil properties, and land cover) on dry days and by global watershed characteristics (relative position within the watershed and hydrologic connectivity) on wet days when saturation excess run‐off was simulated. The spatial details of run‐off generation and travel time along flow paths provided by the model are helpful for watershed managers to further identify critical source areas of non‐point source pollution and develop best management practices.     

Two‐dimensional continuous simulation of spatiotemporally varied hydrological processes using the time‐area method

Distributed, continuous hydrologic models promote better understanding of hydrology and enable integrated hydrologic analyses by providing a more detailed picture of water transport processes across the varying landscape. However, such models are not widely used in routine modelling practices, due in part to the extensive data input requirements, computational demands, and complexity of routing algorithms. We developed a two‐dimensional continuous hydrologic model, HYSTAR, using a time‐area method within a grid‐based spatial data model with the goal of providing an alternative way to simulate spatiotemporally varied watershed‐scale hydrologic processes. The model calculates the direct runoff hydrograph by coupling a time‐area routing scheme with a dynamic rainfall excess sub‐model implemented here using a modified curve number method with an hourly time step, explicitly considering downstream ‘reinfiltration’ of routed surface runoff. Soil moisture content is determined at each time interval based on a water balance equation, and overland and channel runoff is routed on time‐area maps, representing spatial variation in hydraulic characteristics for each time interval in a storm event. Simulating runoff hydrographs does not depend on unit hydrograph theory or on solution of the Saint Venant equation, yet retains the simplicity of a unit hydrograph approach and the capability of explicitly simulating two‐dimensional flow routing. The model provided acceptable performance in predicting daily and monthly runoff for a 6‐year period for a watershed in Virginia (USA) using readily available geographic information about the watershed landscape. Spatial and temporal variability in simulated effective runoff depth and time area maps dynamically show the areas of the watershed contributing to the direct runoff hydrograph at the outlet over time, consistent with the variable source area overland flow generation mechanism. The model offers a way to simulate watershed processes and runoff hydrographs using the time‐area method, providing a simple, efficient, and sound framework that explicitly represents mechanisms of spatially and temporally varied hydrologic processes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A GIS‐based variable source area hydrology model

Effective control of nonpoint source pollution from contaminants transported by runoff requires information about the source areas of surface runoff. Variable source hydrology is widely recognized by hydrologists, yet few methods exist for identifying the saturated areas that generate most runoff in humid regions. The Soil Moisture Routing model is a daily water balance model that simulates the hydrology for watersheds with shallow sloping soils. The model combines elevation, soil, and land use data within the geographic information system GRASS, and predicts the spatial distribution of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, saturation‐excess overland flow (i.e., surface runoff), and interflow throughout a watershed. The model was applied to a 170 hectare watershed in the Catskills region of New York State and observed stream flow hydrographs and soil moisture measurements were compared to model predictions. Stream flow prediction during non‐winter periods generally agreed with measured flow resulting in an average r² of 0·73, a standard error of 0·01 m³/s, and an average Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency R² of 0·62. Soil moisture predictions showed trends similar to observations with errors on the order of the standard error of measurements. The model results were most accurate for non‐winter conditions. The model is currently used for making management decisions for reducing non‐point source pollution from manure spread fields in the Catskill watersheds which supply New York City's drinking water. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于多植物生长模式的SWAT模型的修正与有效性初探

以农林系统的非点源污染模拟为目标,通过研究建立变化密度及多种类混杂的森林生长模型,修正了SWAT模型采用平均森林植被密度和单一植物生长模式估算生物累积量的问题,并建立了与之相适应的森林优势组份丰度遥感反演模型、叶面积指数和消光系数遥感反演模型以获取森林生长模型的相关参数.同时,根据间作套种下的辐射能利用Keating方程,引入间作套种指数变量,修正SWAT原有的单一生物量日积累模型,探讨了作物复种指数、间作套种指数遥感反演方法和以此为基础的作物间作套种生长模型.以亚热带季风湿润区红壤背景下的鄱阳湖流域子流域梅江流域为试验区,以野外实测数据为基础,探讨修正SWAT模型的有效性.结果表明:修正后的SWAT模型与原始SWAT模型相比,在模拟流量和营养盐负荷方面,得到了较好的改善.在模拟流量方面,有效性提高了7.8%,流量峰值的模拟也得到了改善,能更好地反映地表蓄流方面的实际情况;在模拟营养盐负荷方面,有效性提高了6.4%(总磷)和6.1%(总氮).     

Vibration‐based damage assessment of steel structure using global and local response measurements

Damage assessment of a structure involves acquiring and identifying dynamic characteristics of the structure and using these characteristics to evaluate behavior and performance. In this study, an unsymmetrical three‐story steel structure (fabricated with one weak column in the first floor) was tested on shaking table and subjected to a series of earthquake excitations with increasing level of excitation back to back. Besides, white noise excitation was also applied in between the earthquake excitation to serve as the reference state. Both the traditional sensing system (accelerometer and linear variable differential transformer) and the local optical tracker system were implemented in the structure to collect the vibration‐based responses. For operational modal analysis, structural response from white noise excitation will be used in this study. First, the traditional system identification using global response data is used (multivariate autoregressive (AR)‐model) to extract system natural frequencies and mode shapes from all different set of white noise responses after earthquake excitation. The migration of AR‐coefficient ellipse error from each sensor response was used to identify the damage location. Second, blind source separation technique was used to identify the modal contribution of the structure from each test, which provide information to detect the damage severity. Finally, from the local optical tracker array data, the principal component analysis was applied to quantify the earthquake‐induce local stress of the structural member. Combine the result from damage detection using global measurement and the identified local element stress, one can locate and quantify the damage. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological field data from a modeller's perspective: Part 2: process‐based evaluation of model hypotheses

The current generation of hydrological models has been widely criticized for their inability to adequately simulate hydrological processes. In this study, we evaluate competing model representations of hydrological processes with respect to their capability to simulate observed processes in the Mahurangi River basin in Northland, New Zealand. In the first part of this two‐part series, the precipitation, soil moisture, and flow data in the Mahurangi were used to estimate the dominant hydrological processes and explore several options for their suitable mathematical representation. In this paper, diagnostic tests are applied to gain several insights for model selection. The analysis highlights dominant hydrological processes (e.g. the importance of vertical drainage and baseflow compared to sub‐surface stormflow), provides guidance for the choice of modelling approaches (e.g. implicitly representing sub‐grid heterogeneity in soils), and helps infer appropriate values for model parameters. The approach used in this paper demonstrates the benefits of flexible model structures in the context of hypothesis testing, in particular, supporting a more systematic exploration of current ambiguities in hydrological process representation. The challenge for the hydrological community is to make better use of the available data, not only to estimate parameter values but also to diagnostically identify more scientifically defensible model structures. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of land‐use changes on nonpoint source pollution in the Xizhi River watershed,Guangdong, China

The Annualized Agricultural Non‐point Source (AnnAGNPS) pollution model has been widely used to assess and predict runoff, soil erosion, sediment and nutrient loading with a geographic information system. This article presents a case study of the effect of land‐use changes on nonpoint source (NPS) pollution using the AnnAGNPS model in the Xizhi River watershed, eastern Pearl River Delta of Guangdong province, China. The land‐use changes in the Xizhi River watershed between 1998 and 2003 were examined using the multitemporal remote sensing data. The runoff, soil erosion, sediment transport and nutrient loading 1998 and 2003 were assessed using AnnAGNPS. The effects of land‐use changes on NPS were studied by comparing the simulation results of each year. Our results showed that (i) the NPS loadings increased when forest and grass land converted into paddy, orchard and farmland land, and population size and gross domestic product size as well as the usage amounts of fertilizer and pesticide in the entire watershed were firmly correlated with the NPS loadings; (ii) the land‐use change during fast urbanization in particular when other land types were converted into the development land and buildup land led to increasing of NPS pollution; and (iii) urban land expansion showed more important effects on total organic carbon (TOC) loading compared with nitrogen and phosphorus loadings. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seasonal variations of deuterium and oxygen‐18 isotopes and their response to moisture source for precipitation events in the subtropical monsoon region

Deuterium and oxygen‐18 are common environmental tracers in water used to investigate hydrological processes such as evaporation and groundwater recharge, and to trace moisture source. In this study, we collected event precipitation from 01 January 2010 to 28 February 2011 at a site in Changsha, Yangtze River Basin to estimate the influence of moisture source and atmospheric conditions on stable isotope compositions. The local meteoric water line, established as δD = (8.45 ± 0.13) δ¹⁸O + (17.7 ± 0.9) (r² = 0.97, n = 189), had a higher slope and intercept than global meteoric water line. Temperature–δ¹⁸O exhibited complex correlations, with positive correlations during Nov.–Apr. superior to during Jun.–Sep., which was attributed to distinctive moisture sources, but vague the overall period; amount effect examined throughout the year. Linear regressions between δ¹⁸O and δD value in different precipitation event size classes revealed progressively decreasing slope and intercept values with decreasing precipitation amount and increasing vapour pressure deficit, indicating that small rainfall events (0–5 mm) were subject to secondary evaporation effects during rainwater descent. In contrast, snowfall and heavy precipitation events exhibited high slope and intercepts for the regression equation between δ¹⁸O and δD. High concentrations of heavy isotopes were associated with precipitation events sourced from remote westerly air masses, degenerated tropical marine air masses from the Bay of Bengal (BoB), and inland moisture in the pre‐monsoon period, as determined from backward trajectories assessed in the HYSPLIT model. Meanwhile, low concentrations of heavy isotopes were found to correspond with remote maritime moisture from BoB, the South China Sea, and the west Pacific at three different air pressures in summer monsoon and post‐monsoon using HYSPLIT and records of typhoon paths. These findings suggest that stable isotope compositions in precipitation events are closely associated with the meteorological conditions and respond sensitively to moisture source in subtropical monsoon climates. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of suspended sediment sources using 137Cs and 210Pbex in unmanaged Japanese cypress plantation watersheds in southern Japan

To analyse suspended sediment sources in unmanaged Japanese cypress plantation watersheds, field measurements and fingerprinting of the suspended sediment was conducted in the Shimanto River basin in southern Japan. For sediment fingerprinting, ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb_ex were detected by means of gamma‐ray spectrometry in the surface soil of the forest floor, stream bank and truck trail and mobilized sediment by interrill erosion. The ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb_ex activities associated with the forest floor materials were considerably higher than those of the stream bank and truck trail. The ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb_ex activities associated with the suspended sediment were found to vary with the sampling period. Evidently, the suspended sediment can comprise materials generated from the forest floor by interrill erosion and those from the truck trail and/or stream bank. The multivariate sediment‐mixing model using ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb_ex showed that the contribution of the forest floor varied periodically, ranging from 23–56% in the Hinoki 156 subwatershed and from 18–85% in the Hinoki 155 subwatershed. The difference in the average contribution of the forest floor between Hinoki 156 (46%) and Hinoki 155 (69%) may relate to the presence of truck trail networks in the watershed. The truck trail network can play roles of sediment source and pathway for sediment from forest floor to stream channel due to the concentrated overland flow on the truck trail during heavy rainfall events. These results indicate that the forest floor should be recognized as a major source of suspended sediment in unmanaged Japanese cypress plantation watersheds. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

有限断层地震波辐射能估算及其在合成强地面运动中的应用

对有限断层地震波能量辐射的估算通常采用断层面上子源能量的逐点求和方法。基于Brune圆盘模型,Anderson推导出有限断层地震波能量辐射S波的求解公式,即 ,其中 为断层面上地震矩, 为剪切模量, 和 分别为动态应力降和静态应力降,并指出在复合震源模型强地面运动预测应用中 以满足能量守恒。Rivera和Kanamori则从能量辐射表象定理出发,给出了有限断层中辐射能量的积分表达式,明确地指出了逐点求和所存在的问题。依据该积分表达式,本文推导出了复合源模型中新的辐射能完整的求解方法,指出Anderson方法实为断层面上点源辐射能量的简单叠加求和,后者则充分考虑了断层面上任一点在任一时刻能量传播过程中受到的断层面上所有位移破裂路径的交互影响。以1976年唐山7.6地震为例,应用上述方法分别计算了有限断层模型的辐射能量及近场强地面运动,如质点运动加速度,速度。结果表明如果模型参数满足 时,由本文给出的求解方法计算所得到的地震波辐射能已远远超出实际的辐射能量值,直接导致了对近场强地面运动参数如质点速度、加速度等的过高估算。因此,Zeng等和Anderson工作的局限性是非常明显的:地震矩守恒以及非物理的 无法准确地预测近场地面运动。未来工作中,对于有限断层模型的建立,在地震矩守恒这一约束条件的基础上,远场和近场能量解（或视应力）将可作为另一个重要的约束条件,为强地面运动的模拟提供一个更为恰当的求解方案。      

Determination of the conduit structure in a karst aquifer based on tracer data—Lurbach system,Austria

A structure model was used to analyse solute‐transport parameter estimates based on tracer breakthrough curves. In the model system, groundwater flow is envisioned to be organised in a complex conduit network providing a variety of short circuits with relative small carrying capacities along different erosion levels. The discharge through the fully filled conduits is limited owing to void geometries and turbulent flow; thus, a hierarchic overflow system evolves where conduits are (re‐)activated or dried up depending on the flow condition. Exemplified on the Lurbach–Tanneben karst aquifer, the applicability of the model approach was tested. Information derived from multi‐tracer experiments performed at different volumetric flow rates enabled to develop a structural model of the karst network, under constraint of the geomorphological and hydrological evolution of the site. Depending on the flow rate, groundwater is divided into up to eight flow paths. The spatial hierarchy of flow paths controls the sequence of flow path activation. Conduits of the topmost level are strongly influenced by reversible alteration processes. Sedimentation or blocking causes an overflow of water to the next higher conduit. Flow path specific dissolutional denudation rates were estimated using the temporal development of the partial discharge. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of long‐term water balance in the source area of the Yellow River basin

To analyse the long‐term water balance of the Yellow River basin, a new hydrological model was developed and applied to the source area of the basin. The analysis involved 41 years (1960–2000) of daily observation data from 16 meteorological stations. The model is composed of the following three sub‐models: a heat balance model, a runoff formation model and a river‐routing network model. To understand the heat and water balances more precisely, the original model was modified as follows. First, the land surface was classified into five types (bare, grassland, forest, irrigation area and water surface) using a high‐resolution land‐use map. Potential evaporation was then calculated using land‐surface temperatures estimated by the heat balance model. The maximum evapotranspiration of each land surface was calculated from potential evaporation using functions of the leaf area index (LAI). Finally, actual evapotranspiration was estimated by regulating the maximum evapotranspiration using functions of soil moisture content. The river discharge estimated by the model agreed well with the observed data in most years. However, relatively large errors, which may have been caused by the overestimation of surface flow, appeared in some summer periods. The rapid decrease of river discharge in recent years in the source area of the Yellow River basin depended primarily on the decrease in precipitation. Furthermore, the results suggested that the long‐term water balance in the source area of the Yellow River basin is influenced by land‐use changes. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of causal parameter bounds in PSHA‐based ground motion selection

In this paper the effect of causal parameter bounds (e.g. magnitude, source‐to‐site distance, and site condition) on ground motion selection, based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) results, is investigated. Despite the prevalent application of causal parameter bounds in ground motion selection, present literature on the topic is cast in the context of a scenario earthquake of interest, and thus specific bounds for use in ground motion selection based on PSHA, and the implications of such bounds, is yet to be examined. Thirty‐six PSHA cases, which cover a wide range of causal rupture deaggregation distributions and site conditions, are considered to empirically investigate the effects of various causal parameter bounds on the characteristics of selected ground motions based on the generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) approach. It is demonstrated that the application of relatively ‘wide’ bounds on causal parameters effectively removes ground motions with drastically different characteristics with respect to the target seismic hazard and results in an improved representation of the target causal parameters. In contrast, the use of excessively ‘narrow’ bounds can lead to ground motion ensembles with a poor representation of the target intensity measure distributions, typically as a result of an insufficient number of prospective ground motions. Quantitative criteria for specifying bounds for general PSHA cases are provided, which are expected to be sufficient in the majority of problems encountered in ground motion selection for seismic demand analyses. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

华东地区小震P波震源参数特征初探

选取上海数字化地震台网(台阵)记录到的2001～2004年华东地区发生80次记录较好的小地震.扣除仪器响应、介质响应等,反演单台记录垂直向纵波(P波)震源谱,根据布龙位错模型,计算每个地震单台拐角频率、地震矩、零频谱值、震源破裂半径、应力降等参数,求出每个地震的震源参数的平均值及其均方差,给出了该区小震震源的范围,研究了各参数之间的关系以及各参数与震级(ML)之间的关系.结果表明,华东地区小地震(ML 0.8～4.4)拐角频率与震级的关系可以用三次曲线拟合,亦可以将ML 2.5～3.0做为分界点用直线分段拟合,后者效果更好;零频谱值的对数与震级关系可以用直线拟合,也可以用二次曲线拟合,效果好于直线拟合;地震矩与震级的关系与零频谱值相似;震源破裂半径的对数与震级的关系可用直线、二次曲线以及三次曲线拟合,3者效果相近;应力降与震级、地震矩以及震源破裂半径之间不存在明显的依赖关系.     

Development and application of a physically based landscape water balance in the SWAT model

Watershed scale hydrological and biogeochemical models rely on the correct spatial‐temporal prediction of processes governing water and contaminant movement. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, one of the most commonly used watershed scale models, uses the popular curve number (CN) method to determine the respective amounts of infiltration and surface runoff. Although appropriate for flood forecasting in temperate climates, the CN method has been shown to be less than ideal in many situations (e.g. monsoonal climates and areas dominated by variable source area hydrology). The CN model is based on the assumption that there is a unique relationship between the average moisture content and the CN for all hydrologic response units (HRUs), and that the moisture content distribution is similar for each runoff event, which is not the case in many regions. Presented here is a physically based water balance that was coded in the SWAT model to replace the CN method of runoff generation. To compare this new water balance SWAT (SWAT‐WB) to the original CN‐based SWAT (SWAT‐CN), two watersheds were initialized; one in the headwaters of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia and one in the Catskill Mountains of New York. In the Ethiopian watershed, streamflow predictions were better using SWAT‐WB than SWAT‐CN [Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSE) of 0·79 and 0·67, respectively]. In the temperate Catskills, SWAT‐WB and SWAT‐CN predictions were approximately equivalent (NSE > 0·70). The spatial distribution of runoff‐generating areas differed greatly between the two models, with SWAT‐WB reflecting the topographical controls imposed on the model. Results show that a water balance provides results equal to or better than the CN, but with a more physically based approach. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Source-independent wave-equation based microseismic source location using traveltime inversion

A new source location method using wave-equation based traveltime inversion is proposed to locate microseismic events accurately. With a sourceindependent strategy, microseismic events can be located independently regardless of the accuracy of the source signature and the origin time. The traveltime-residuals-based misfit function has robust performance when the velocity model is inaccurate. The new Fréchet derivatives of the misfit function with respect to source location are derived directly based on the acoustic wave equation, accounting for the influence of geometrical perturbation and spatial velocity variation. Unlike the mostly used traveltime inversion methods, no traveltime picking or ray tracing is needed.Additionally, the improved scattering-integral method is applied to reduce the computational cost. Numerical tests show the validity of the proposed method.     

Systematic lumped‐parameter models for foundations based on polynomial‐fraction approximation

Based on the approximation by polynomial‐fraction, a series of systematic lumped‐parameter models are developed in this paper for efficiently representing the dynamic behaviour of unbounded soil. Concise formulation is first employed to represent the dynamic flexibility function of foundation with a ratio of two polynomials. By defining an appropriate quadratic error function, the optimal coefficients of the polynomials can be directly solved from a system of linear equations. Through performing partial‐fraction expansion on this polynomial‐fraction and designing two basic discrete‐element models corresponding to the partial fractions, systematic lumped‐parameter models can be conveniently established by connecting these basic units in series. Since the systematic lumped‐parameter models are configured without introducing any mass, the foundation input motion can be directly applied to these models for their applications to the analysis of seismic excitation. The effectiveness of these new models is strictly validated by successfully simulating a semi‐infinite bar on an elastic foundation. Subsequently, these models are applied for representing the dynamic stiffness functions for different types of foundation. Comparison of the new models with the other existing lumped‐parameter models is also made to illustrate their advantages in requiring fewer parameters and featuring a more systematic expansion. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于微增模型的海洋可控源电磁法三维非结构化矢量有限元数值模拟

为了分析海洋中含金属矿的储油气砂层的成分、结构对于海洋可控源电磁场的影响特征,引入多相微增等效介质模型,结合非结构化网格实现了海洋可控源电磁三维矢量有限元正演.首先对多相微增模型进行了介绍,并分析不同参数影响下的等效电导率变化特征.而后,详细推导了频率域可控源电磁法非结构化矢量有限元方程.接着,利用预处理的IDR （s）迭代算法求解线性方程组.最后设计典型的海洋地电模型,通过正演计算,验证了本文算法的正确性和有效性,同时研究了海洋储油砂层中的金属矿的含量、孔隙度、含水饱和度等参数对于可控源电磁场响应特征的影响.     

震源耦合的等效物理模型

本文提出了考虑各潜在震源相互耦合的等效物理模型，系统地建立了通过拟合各潜在震源地震序列来确定不同时间段内活断层形速率的方法，给出了预报各潜在震源未来一定年限内发生震级在不同震级段的概率模型。