Preventive disaster management of extreme natural events

Several recent extreme natural events resulted in great humanitarian tragedies because of weak preventive disaster management. Here we analyze several factors (natural, economical, political, awareness, and preparedness) that brought about the humanitarian tragedies of the early 21st century. We discuss then the role of science in the preventive disaster management of extreme natural events.     

A disaster risk management performance index

The Risk Management Index, RMI, proposed in this paper, brings together a group of indicators that measure risk management performance and effectiveness. These indicators reflect the organizational, development, capacity and institutional actions taken to reduce vulnerability and losses in a given area, to prepare for crisis and to recover efficiently from disasters. This index is designed to assess risk management performance. It provides a quantitative measure of management based on predefined qualitative targets or benchmarks that risk management efforts should aim to achieve. The design of the RMI involved establishing a scale of achievement levels or determining the distance between current conditions and an objective threshold or conditions in a reference country, sub-national region, or city. The proposed RMI is constructed by quantifying four public policies, each of which is described by six indicators. The mentioned policies include the identification of risk, risk reduction, disaster management, and governance and financial protection. Risk identification comprises the individual perception, social representation and objective assessment; risk reduction involves the prevention and mitigation; disaster management comprises response and recovery; and, governance and financial protection policy is related to institutionalization and risk transfer. Results at the urban, national and sub-national levels, which illustrate the application of the RMI in those scales, are finally given.     

Land conservation campaign in China: integrated management, local participation and food supply option

In an effort to halt soil erosion, desertification and sandstorms, the Chinese government has recently launched a series of land conservation programs targeted at the country’s north, northwest and southwest areas where problems are severe. This paper provides an overview of the current status of the major land conservation projects and their environmental and social-economic significance, as well as the challenges encountered. Conflicts of interests and objectives among different administrative entities involved and problems associated with the lack of local participation are addressed. Impacts on the food economy and implications for the environment are discussed in light of the options for meeting the country’s increasing food demand. The analysis highlights the necessity of improving cooperation and integration across different administrations and the imperative of participation of local communities in the planning and management process for achieving the goals of land conservation campaign. The importance of internalizing the environmental externality of land degradation and stipulating sustainable national food supply strategies is also stressed.     

The cost of social vulnerability: an integrative conceptual framework and model for assessing financial risks in natural disaster management

Natural Hazards - Groups that are unable to prepare for disasters, or to recover from damage on their own, have a high dependency on government services, which inevitably leads to more government...     

风险分析实践的感悟

考虑到我国水资源短缺、水灾害频发和水环境恶化的情势,在水利建设和管理中,突出风险意识是非常必要的和十分及时的。我们多年从事风险分析实践的感悟是：水利风险模拟分析完全不同于建筑结构物的可靠度计算,更不是模拟设计洪水的淹没范围和水深,其真谛是在于如实模拟出当地的水旱灾害的不确定性,是对传统思维模式的重大的突破。有些传统理念也有必要作调整,如：工程水文学科的内涵,可持续发展的不确定性和风险分析的风险。     

Assessment of erosion damage in Ndome and Ghazi, Taita Taveta, Kenya: Towards an integrated erosion management approach

Aerial photograph interpretation on erosion trends from 1961 to 1998 showed that by 1998, approximately 17 and 50% of agricultural land in Ndome and Ghazi respectively had been permanently lost due to the combined effect of rill, inter-rill, and gully erosion, and sand deposition. Although abnormally heavy rains received between 1996–98 caused much of the present land damage, the severity of the damage was enhanced by inappropriate and persistent human perturbations in the land-system notably through vegetative degradation and destruction of soil structure through inappropriate tillage practices. With soil organic matter contents of 1.6 and 1.9%, and clay ratios of 10.1 and 10.6 for Ndome and Ghazi, respectively, the areas inherent erodibility was considered as high thus pointing to the need for careful use and management of the soil resource. That farmers appreciated only land quality indicators that were visible to the naked eye and that directly affected their subsistence, revealed a knowledge gap that saw damages from intrinsic processes like rill and inter-rill erosion proceed unnoticed. This paper argues that the spread of erosion damage in rural agro-ecosystems is survival-driven. And as a remedy to this problem, there is need for the diversification of livelihood endeavours to alternative off-farm income sources to reduce pressure on the already fragile land resource. Further, being the ultimate implementers of conservation technologies and by virtue of the multiplicity and inter-relation of rural household needs, adoption of an integrated erosion management approach with food security as paramount presents the most practical entry point for sustainable land management in such rural agro-ecosystems. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

洪水灾害风险管理广义熵智能分析的理论框架

基于洪水灾害风险管理的背景分析,提出用广义分布函数及其广义熵理论统一描述、物理解析洪水灾害风险管理系统的各种不确定性信息。基于洪水灾害风险形成机制和风险管理理论与水利科学、信息科学、智能科学综合集成途径,提出由洪水灾害孕灾环境和致灾因子危险性广义熵智能分析、承灾体易损性广义熵智能分析、承灾体灾情广义熵智能分析和风险决策广义熵智能分析组成的洪水灾害风险管理广义熵智能分析的初步理论框架及其主要研究内容,在其它灾害风险管理中具有一定的参考应用价值。     

Multi-objective, multiple participant decision support for water management in the Andarax catchment, Almeria

Water management in the Andarax river basin (Almeria, Spain) is a multi-objective, multi-participant, long-term decision-making problem that faces several challenges. Adequate water allocation needs informed decisions to meet increasing socio-economic demands while respecting the environmental integrity of this basin. Key players in the Andarax water sector include the municipality of Almeria, the irrigators involved in the intensive greenhouse agricultural sector, and booming second residences. A decision support system (DSS) is developed to rank different sustainable planning and management alternatives according to their socio-economic and environmental performance. The DSS is intimately linked to sustainability indicators and is designed through a public participation process. Indicators are linked to criteria reflecting stakeholders concerns in the 2005 field survey, such as fulfilling water demand, water price, technical and economical efficiency, social and environmental impacts. Indicators can be partly quantified after simulating the operation of the groundwater reservoir over a 20-year planning period and partly through a parallel expert evaluation process. To predict the impact of future water demand in the catchment, several development scenarios are designed to be evaluated in the DSS. The successive multi-criteria analysis of the performance indicators permits the ranking of the different management alternatives according to the multiple objectives formulated by the different sectors/participants. This allows more informed and transparent decision-making processes for the Andarax river basin, recognizing both the socio-economic and environmental dimensions of water resources management.     

Hot-topics and Prospects of Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction: Based on 2017 Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction in Cancun,Mexico

A brief introduction to the Fifth Session of Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, which was held in Cancun, Mexico, organized by United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) and hosted by the Government of Mexico from 22 May to 26 May 2017, was firstly provided. Combined with “Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030”, “Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development”, and related work on natural disaster risk reduction at global, regional, country and local scales, some hot-topics and prospects of global platform for disaster risk reduction were put forward. Some findings were concluded, consisting of understanding disaster risk, disaster risk governance, building and enhancing resilience to disasters, coherence between the Sendai Framework, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA). Implementing the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) through cross-sectoral collaboration, removing barriers and promoting public-private cooperation in DRR and other types of partnership among multi-stakeholders will become the main force pattern of DRR in the near future. Large-scale disaster risk governance caused by multi-hazards (disaster cluster), disaster chain and disaster compound will be the main trend in scientific research of DRR. Building regional disaster risk reduction platform (e.g. the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21^st-Century Maritime Silk Road) and sharing the technologies and information of disaster risk reduction will be the main contents of DRR practices. Building and optimization of institutional mechanisms on DRR will be the trend of DRR idea. Improving and enhancing the support to communities, vulnerable groups and locals on DRR will be the main trend in DRR achievements’ application and demonstration in China.     

重庆市自然灾害管理综合信息系统研究

从重庆市自然灾害情况及其信息管理现状分析入手,构建了重庆市自然灾害管理信息系统目标、整体设计和界面开发。重庆市自然灾害管理信息系统主要由4个模块组成：自然灾害数据库模块、远程通信管理模块、应用分析模型库模块及决策支持模块,它们通过一定的数据接口连结,在GIS平台上成为一体化系统,对重庆市自然灾害进行有效地管理和监测,从而减少自然灾害带来的经济损失。     

Development of an integrated conceptual model for the rational management of the transboundary Nestos River, Greece

This paper provides a detailed analysis of the geologic, hydrologic and hydrogeologic characteristics of Nestos River basin, which is formed within the Greek mountainous part of the river. The quantitative analysis was mainly based on the data of the river flow in different gauging points across the rivercourse as well as on the data of groundwater discharge from karst springs of the mountainous area while important conclusions were made regarding the hydraulic connection between the surface waters of the river and the groundwater of the karst aquifers of the basin. The qualitative analysis has shown that the quality of both surface waters and groundwaters of the investigated basin is high, whereas, no sources of contamination were indicated during this research. The possible effects of the two large dams of Platanovrisi and Thesavros are also analysed as they strongly affect the quantitative and qualitative regime of the river delta.     

我国大型岩土工程施工安全风险管理研究进展

在我国,以城市轨道交通、高速公路网建设、高速铁路网建设、重大水利工程建设等为代表的大型岩土工程具有尺度大、施工周期长、操作复杂和工程安全状况堪忧的特点。不同类型的安全事故持续不断,造成的经济损失和人员伤亡居高不下。概括总结了2010－2017年间我国大型岩土工程施工安全风险管理研究方面的主要进展,包括：（1）大型岩土工程施工安全风险管理重大科技项目、成果奖励、规范;（2）大型岩土工程施工安全风险分析与评估方法方面研究进展;（3）大型岩土工程施工安全风险监控与预警方面研究进展;（4）大型岩土工程施工安全风险管理信息化技术与平台方面研究进展;（5）大型岩土工程施工安全风险智能化分析与控制方面研究进展。基于我国大型岩土工程施工安全风险管理研究方面主要进展的分析,提出了我国大型岩土工程施工安全风险管理方面面临的新挑战：（1）定量化风险评估理论和技术的应用推广;（2）风险决策理论;（3）推行全过程安全风险管理计划;（4）构建岩土工程安全事故案例共享平台;（5）基于大数据挖掘技术的岩土工程参数分析与控制;（6）智慧岩土工程研究和建设。     

Groundwater contamination: risk management and assessment for landfills in Mar del Plata, Argentina

 This study presents a program for risk management in the contamination of groundwater resulting from leachate in landfills at Mar del Plata (Argentina). The program includes prediction, prevention, monitory observation and mitigation as actions that must be taken prior to, during, and after contamination occurs. This routine aids in the identification of weak points and failures of the program for those who are in charge of making decisions, and will allow better use of limited financial and technical resources based on planning, thus minimizing disconnected determinations. Results of the prediction stage were confirmed through monitoring. The presence of a plume of contamination more than 100 m from the landfill was shown, thus proving that implementation of a monitoring plan to follow the development of the contaminated plume must be implemented, particularly in populated areas which depend on residential wells for their water supply. Received: 8 May 2000 · Accepted: 14 August 2000     

Groundwater resources management under environmental constraints in Shiroishi of Saga plain, Japan

A sinking of the land surface due to the pumping of groundwater has long been recognized as an environmental issue in the Shiroishi plain of Saga, Japan. Land subsidence can have several negative economic and social implications such as changes in groundwater and surface water flow patterns, restrictions on pumping in land subsidence prone areas, localized flooding, failure of well casings as well as shearing of structures. To minimize such an environmental effect, groundwater management should be considered in this area. In this study, a new integrated numerical model that integrates a three-dimensional numerical groundwater flow model coupled with a one-dimensional soil consolidation model and a groundwater optimization model was developed to simulate groundwater movement, to predict ground settlement and to search for optimal safe yield of groundwater without violating physical, environmental and socio-economic constraints. It is found that groundwater levels in the aquifers greatly vary from season to season in response to the varying climatic and pumping conditions. Consequently, land subsidence has occurred rapidly throughout the area with the Shiroishi plain being the most prone. The predicted optimal safe yield of the pumping amount is about 5 million m³. The study also suggests that pumping with this optimal amount will minimize the rate of land subsidence over the entire area. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Developing an integrated urban ecological efficiency framework for spatial ecological planning: A case on a tropical mega metropolitan area of the global south

Rapid urbanization has emerged as one of the most critical challenges to ecological sustainability in urban areas. In developing countries, the degradation of the ecosystem is more prominent due to the lack of urban planning. Thus, it has become urgent for researchers to identify the ecological efficiency (EE) changes imposed by urban expansion and promote sustainable land use planning. This study aims to develop a comprehensive urban ecological efficiency (UEE) framework in the Kolkata Metropolitan Area (KMA), India, from 2000 to 2020. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to develop a remote sensing-based UEE index (UEEI) based on five effective ecological parameters (Greenness, Dryness, Heat, Wetness and vegetation health. A single sensitivity parameter was also calculated to determine the role of a single parameter based on which management strategies can be carried out. The findings showed that (i) there were substantial deteriorations of UEE in the last 20 years. In 2000 the areas with good EE were about 65.5% which declined to 53.72% in 2010 and 20.87% in 2020. The areas with good UEE decreased 68% and 61% from 2000 to 2020 and 2010 to 2020, respectively; (ii) the areas with good UEE were 52% in 2000, while 38% in 2010. Most urban centres (Bhadreshwar, Champdani, Srirampur, Bally, Howrah, Kamarhati, Baranagar, Dum Dum, South Dum Dum, Rajarhat, Bidhannagar) located around the Kolkata megacity are characterized by poor and very poor EE (ranges of 0.60–1.00). Thus, spatiotemporal pattern of UEE could assist to clarify the administrative responsibilities as well as obligations. In addition to this, the UEE framework can help for scientific guidance of urban ecosystem protection and restoration through comprehensive spatial landscape planning.     

Managing for sustainability in an arid climate: lessons learned from 20 years of groundwater management in Arizona,USA

Substantial progress has been made within central Arizona in moving towards a more sustainable water future, particularly in transitioning the urban demand from a primarily nonrenewable groundwater-based supply to increasing dependence on the Colorado River, Salt River and effluent. Management efforts include a wide range of regulatory and voluntary programs which have had mixed success. The Department of Water Resources has learned a number of key lessons throughout the years, and this paper attempts to establish the water management context and identify those lessons for the benefit of others who may want to evaluate alternative approaches to groundwater management. Themes to be discussed include evaluating water management approaches in a public policy context, the effectiveness of alternative management approaches and the relative merits of regulatory vs. nonregulatory efforts, and the importance of high-quality data in making management decisions.

2001-2018年石羊河流域植被变化及其对流域管理的启示

植被是流域生态系统的重要指标,植被景观管理也是流域综合管理的重要内容。综合利用长时间序列MODIS反射率和归一化差值植被指数（NDVI）产品及Landsat卫星遥感影像,基于谷歌地球引擎（GEE）平台,利用计算机自动分类的方法,监测了2001-2018年间石羊河流域的植被（包括灌溉土地）的逐年变化,结合降水、径流量和地下水位地面监测数据,分析了全流域植被指数、植被面积、灌溉土地范围的变化特征及其与水循环之间的互馈关系。研究发现,2001-2018年间,石羊河流域的植被面积以每年约135 km²的速率增加,其中,自然植被和灌溉土地分别以每年60.5 km²和74.6 km²的速率增加。除了金昌区的植被增加以灌溉土地为主外,其他区域都以自然植被的增加为主。特别是民勤地区,由于十多年的持续调水和有效退耕,地下水位近年来开始抬升,自然植被开始恢复。但与此同时,中游凉州区和永昌县的生态风险加大。未来可从灌溉规模控制、地表与地下水统一调度、景观分级和配置技术发展、优化产业结构、强化与流域外的连通性等方面加强流域综合管理,提高流域社会系统弹性,增强可持续发展能力。     

The distribution of heavy metals in an abandoned mining area; a case study of Strauss Pit, the Drake mining area, Australia: implications for the environmental management of mine sites

Surface water samples from the Drake mining area show elevated metal concentrations, notably cadmium, iron and zinc. A detailed study of a sphalerite /quartz vein from Strauss Pit and chalcopyrite and pyrite from the Adeline mine and Strauss Pit indicate that micro-scale analyses of ores are necessary for environmental management of mine sites. Analyses show that Cd is elevated, up to 2.1 % by weight, and is associated with sphalerite, replacing Zn, or to a lesser extent replacing Pb within small galena grains. High concentrations of Cu are also associated with the Strauss Pit ore as small chalcopyrite grains along the margins of the sphalerite vein, within the central quartz zone of the vein system, and as replacement rims on sphalerite grains. Chalcopyrite from the Adeline mine area, is by comparison, metal poor, but still contains elevated heavy metal concentrations. Whereas, pyrite and chalcopyrite, from Strauss Pit have variable heavy metal concentrations, with chalcopyrite from within sphalerite veins having higher Cd and Zn concentrations than chalcopyrite distal to the veins. Cadmium and other heavy metals within the ores are mobilised during sulphide weathering and enter the drainage network; precipitation of secondary oxidation minerals act as temporary stores for many heavy metals. The complexity of the mineral and heavy metal associations at Strauss Pit suggest that a detailed knowledge of these associations and distributions within ore bodies, and associated waste rocks, are needed by environmental managers of mine sites because the presence of havy metals may greatly affect the decision making process, and management strategies employed. Received; 14 July 1999 · Accepted: 17 August 1999