东、黄海海表面温度季节内变化特征的EOF分析

基于1998—2004年的TRMM/TMI卫星遥感海面温度(SST)数据,在初步分析东、黄海SST的季节分布特征的基础上,采用EOF方法分析了SST的季节内变化特征,进而对SST季节内变化的可能机制进行了探讨。EOF分析获得的前4个模态的累积方差贡献率为57.07%,其结果基本反映了东、黄海SST变化的主要物理过程。其中,EOF的第一模态的方差贡献率占30.17%,其空间模态揭示了以东海北部为中心的、整个海域SST变化趋于一致的特征,这一模态的显著变化周期为6.3周;第二模态的方差贡献率占14.36%,其空间模态呈现东南海域与西北海域SST的反相变化趋势,显著变化周期为8.7周和10.6周;第三模态的方差贡献率占7.02%,其空间SST变率最大的区域位于黄海海域,显著变化周期为6.8,8.7,10.2周等;第四模态的方差贡献率占5.52%,其空间SST变率最大的区域位于东、黄海近海,显著变化周期为6.8周。东、黄海SST季节内变化与此海区大气中的季节内振荡是紧密相关的。     

Sequential forecasting of the surface and subsurface conditions in the Japan Sea

This study estimates a realistic change of the Japan Sea by assimilating satellite measurements into an eddy-resolving circulation model. Suboptimal but feasible assimilation schemes of approximate filtering and nudging play essential roles in the system. The sequential update of error covariance significantly outperforms the asymptotic covariance in the sequential assimilation due to the irregular sampling patterns from multiple altimeter satellites. The best estimates show an average rms difference of only 1.2°C from the radiometer data, and also explain about half of the sea level variance measured by the altimeter observation. The subsurface conditions associated with the mesoscale variabilities are also improved, especially in the Tsushima Warm Current region. It is demonstrated that the forecast limit strongly depends on variable, depth, and location.     

基于ROMS模式的南海SST与SSH四维变分同化研究

卫星遥感观测获得了大量高分辨率的海面实时信息,包括海面温度（SST）和海面高度（SSH）等,同化进入数值模式可有效提升模拟精度。本文基于ROMS模式与四维变分同化方法（4DVAR）,使用AVHRR SST和AVISO SSH数据,开展了南海区域同化实验。为检验同化的效果,分别利用HYCOM再分析资料和Argo温盐实测数据分析了同化结果的海面高度、流场及温盐剖面的精度。对比结果表明,SST和SSH的同化能够改善ROMS的模拟结果:同化后海面高度场能够更为准确地捕捉海洋的中尺度特征,与HYCOM海面高度再分析资料相比,平均绝对偏差和均方根误差分别为0.054 m和0.066 m;与HYCOM 10 m层流场相比,东向与北向流速平均绝对偏差分别为0.12 m/s和0.11 m/s,相比未同化均提升约0.01 m/s;温盐同化结果与Argo温盐实测具有较高的一致性,温度和盐度平均绝对偏差为0.45℃、0.077,均方根误差为0.91℃、0.11,单个的温盐廓线对比说明,同化结果与HYCOM再分析资料精度相当。     

基于EOF分析中西太平洋金枪鱼围网渔场的海洋环境

根据近10 a ECMWF的数值预报资料,主要分析了中西太平洋金枪鱼围网渔场四季和全年的海表温度、海面风场、有效波高的空间分布,利用经验正交方法(Empirical Orthogonal Function, EOF)和经验模态分解(Empirical Mode Decomposition, EMD)分析了空间和时间变化特性。研究表明:海表温度、海面风场、有效波高的四季及全年时空分布有着显著的变化;海表温度的第一、第二、第三模态方差贡献率分别为62.59%、10.98%和6.7%,具有0.5 a、1 a和3 a的周期变化;海面风场的第一、第二、第三模态方差贡献率分别为40.29%、18.39%和9.36%,具有0.2~0.25 a、0.5 a和1 a的周期变化;有效波高的第一、第二、第三模态方差贡献率分别为44.17%、17.35%和10.96%,具有0.2~0.3 a、0.5~1 a和1 a的周期变化。     

基于T/P卫星海面测高的黄东海海面地形变化探讨

利用Topex/Posedion卫星的SSHA数据对黄、东海1993-2001年期间的平均海面地形的空间形态特征、变化速率的空间分布特征及年内变化特征等3个方面进行了分析.研究结果表明,该海区9a平均海面地形的基本特征为：东南高、西北低,由东南向西北倾斜,最大高差超过90 cm;1993-2001年期间全海区均呈现海面上升趋势,上升速率值在5～8.6 mm/a之间,海面上升的空间分异表现为南快北慢,东快西慢.海面地形的年内变化在时间上呈正弦波动,空间上中、北部区域变化速度快,年较差大;南部区域变化速度慢,年较差小;变化空间特征复杂.     

Water masses and decadal variability in the East Sea (Sea of Japan)

Water masses in the East Sea are newly defined based upon vertical structure and analysis of CTD data collected in 1993–1999 during Circulation Research of the East Asian Marginal Seas (CREAMS). A distinct salinity minimum layer was found at 1500 m for the first time in the East Sea, which divides the East Sea Central Water (ESCW) above the minimum layer and the East Sea Deep Water (ESDW) below the minimum layer. ESCW is characterized by a tight temperature–salinity relationship in the temperature range of 0.6–0.12 °C, occupying 400–1500 m. It is also high in dissolved oxygen, which has been increasing since 1969, unlike the decrease in the ESDW and East Sea Bottom Water (ESBW). In the eastern Japan Basin a new water with high salinity in the temperature range of 1–5 °C was found in the upper layer and named the High Salinity Intermediate Water (HSIW). The origin of the East Sea Intermediate Water (ESIW), whose characteristics were found near the Korea Strait in the southwestern part of the East Sea in 1981 [Kim, K., & Chung, J. Y. (1984) On the salinity-minimum and dissolved oxygen-maximum layer in the East Sea (Sea of Japan), In T. Ichiye (Ed.), Ocean Hydrodynamics of the Japan and East China Seas (pp. 55–65). Amsterdam: Elsevier Science Publishers], is traced by its low salinity and high dissolved oxygen in the western Japan Basin. CTD data collected in winters of 1995–1999 confirmed that the HSIW and ESIW are formed locally in the Eastern and Western Japan Basin. CREAMS CTD data reveal that overall structure and characteristics of water masses in the East Sea are as complicated as those of the open oceans, where minute variations of salinity in deep waters are carefully magnified to the limit of CTD resolution. Since the 1960s water mass characteristics in the East Sea have changed, as bottom water formation has stopped or slowed down and production of the ESCW has increased recently.     

Seasonal variability of the sea surface height in the East China Sea along the China coast: A model study

The phase of the sea surface height annual variation in the East China Sea along China’s continental coast is delayed from that in the open ocean area, most probably because of seasonal strong monsoon winds. To elucidate this mechanism, we conducted an idealized model experiment using a rectangular shallow ocean with a sloped seafloor forced by southward blowing winds. We obtain a locally confined high SSH near the western boundary found in the East China Sea. The delay of the phase of the sea surface height (SSH) along the China coast can be interpreted as follows. The SSH of the East China Sea is high over large areas in September and low in March due to the expansion/contraction of seawater, which is attributable to the sea surface heat flux. However, near the continental boundary SSH becomes high in January and low in July under the influence of a monsoon winds. The phase delay along the continental boundary should appear by superposing these two time series with a phase difference near the boundary.     

日本海西南海域现场观测和卫星高度计获取的海面高度距平的比较研究

压力传感逆式回声仪(pressure-sensor-equipped inverted echo sounders,PIES)可以用来测量海底压力和声波从海底到海面的传播时间。海底压力和声波传播时间分别被用来估计水体质量变化(正压)和比容变化(斜压)对海面高度距平的贡献。对由PIES在日本海西南海域现场观测数据得到的海面高度距平(PIES SLA)与卫星高度计海面高度距平(Sat SLA)进行了比较研究。利用相关分析法,对PIES SLA和沿轨T/P卫星、沿轨ERS-2卫星测得的海面高度距平(TP SLA、ERS-2 SLA)进行了比较;对PIES SLA和AVISO网格化海面高度距平进行了比较,估计可能的误差来源,并分析PIES SLA正压部分和斜压部分对SLA的贡献。比较发现,PIES SLA和Sat SLA的相关系数较高,且均方根误差较小,并且对特定区域和特定站点产生误差可能的原因进行了进一步的探讨。通过研究,有以下结论:(1)相对于湾流和黑潮地区,这一区域正压部分对海面高度的贡献相对较大;(2)如果再考虑斜压变化对海面高度的贡献,PIES SLA和Sat SLA相关系数会有所提升;(3)在高能区PIES SLA和Sat SLA相关系数较高,符合得相对比较好。总的来说,在日本海地区,PIES SLA和Sat SLA相关系数较高,具有较高的一致性,能为我国海洋二号(HY-2)等卫星高度计的校验提供一种可靠的方式。该研究对于PIES的研发和设计以及对于PIES的布放位置的选择都有一定的借鉴意义。     

南海中西部叶绿素时空变化特征分析

本文使用2003年1月—2019年12月MODIS遥感数据,结合海表温度、风速分析南海中西部叶绿素质量浓度分布特征和影响因素。结果显示南海中西部叶绿素质量浓度分布存在时空变化。EOF分解表明,EOF1可能反映台风等极端天气对叶绿素的影响;而EOF2 和EOF3均反映了夏季沿岸上升流对叶绿素分布的影响。相关分析表明南海中西部叶绿素质量浓度与海面风场呈正相关(r=0.87,p<0.01),与海表温度呈负相关(r=-0.59,p<0.05)。夏季在西南季风影响下越南东南沿海形成上升流,导致该区浮游植物旺发、叶绿素质量浓度升高;冬季受强东北季风影响,研究区海洋上层混合作用强烈,营养盐供应增加,促进了浮游植物生长,叶绿素质量浓度高于其他季节。     

春季东海黑潮海表温度与风场的年代际变化特征

利用高分辨率遥感海表温度和海表面风场数据,通过经验正交分解(EOF)和合成分析等方法对春季(3—5月)东海黑潮海温暖舌和海表面风场的年代际变化特征进行分析。结果表明:春季黑潮海温暖舌存在明显的年代际变化特征,在1996/1997年发生由弱到强的位相转换,该年代际变化主要受到北太平洋涡旋振荡(NPGO)的调制。进一步研究表明,与气候态相反,春季黑潮海表温度和风场散度在年代际尺度上表现出显著的负相关关系,合成分析表明,该现象主要是由黑潮西侧东海陆架海域海温的异常增暖所造成。     

Interannual SST variability in the Japan/East Sea and relationship with environmental variables

Interannual variability of the Japan/East Sea (JES) sea surface temperature (SST) is investigated from the reconstructed NOAA/AVHRR Oceans Pathfinder best SST data (1985–2002) using the complex empirical function (CEOF) analysis. The iterative empirical function analysis is used for the SST data reconstruction. The first two leading CEOFs account for 86.0% of total variance with 66.4% for the first mode and 19.6% for the second mode. The first CEOF mode represents a standing oscillation and a maximum belt in the central JES. There are two near-7-year events and one 2–3-year event during the period of 1985–2002. The first mode oscillates by adjacent atmospheric systems such as the Aleutian Low, the North Pacific High, the Siberian High, and the East Asian jet stream. Positive correlation in a zonal belt between the first mode JES SST anomaly and the background surface air temperature/SST anomaly reveals intensive ocean-atmosphere interaction near the Polar Front in the North Pacific. The second CEOF mode represents two features: standing oscillation and propagating signal. The standing oscillation occurs in the northern (north of 44°N) and southern (south of 39°N and west of 136°E) JES with around 180° phase difference. A weak southwestward propagating signal is detected between the two regions. The eastward propagating signal is detected from the East Korean Bay to near 135°E. The second mode contains 4–5-year periodicity before 1998 and 2–3-year periodicity thereafter. It is associated with the Arctic Oscillation, which leads it by 1–5-year. Furthermore, a strong correlation with the background surface air temperature/SST anomaly is detected in the tropical to subtropical western Pacific.     

Assimilation of TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimeter Data with a Reduced Gravity Model of the Japan Sea

Sea level data measured by TOPEX/POSEIDON over the Japan Sea from 1993 to 1994 is analyzed by assimilation using an approximate Kalman filter with a 1.5 layer (reduced-gravity) shallow water model. The study aims to extract signals associated with the first baroclinic mode and to determine the extent of its significance. The assimilation dramatically improves the model south of the Polar Front where as much as 20 cm² of the observed sea level variance can be accounted for. In comparison, little variability in the northern cold water region is found consistent with the model dynamics, possibly due to significant differences in stratification.     

海洋水色遥感资料的经验正交函数分析

海洋中浮游植物进行光合作用,固定有机碳,是海洋生物链的基础,因此,研究浮游植物生物量的指标——光合色素(主要是叶绿素a)的时空变化具有十分重要的意义。我国自50年代以来,对海洋浮游植物色素分布进行了大量的现场调查和研究,取得了一些初步结果[1-3]。     

基于SODA数据集的南海海表面盐度分布特征与长期变化趋势分析

盐度是南海物理环境的重要组成部分之一,盐度的变化对南海的水动力环境有重要影响。利用1972-2010年的SODA数据集的5.01 m层月平均数据,分析南海海域海表面盐度的时空分布特征,采用基于最小二乘法的线性拟合分析南海海表面盐度的长期变化趋势。结果表明南海海域的海表面盐度在39 a间90%以上区域均呈现盐度下降趋势,整个海域SSS则以每年0.005 88 psu的速率下降,春季SSS下降速率最大为0.006 4 psu/a,夏季SSS下降速率在四季中最小为0.005 19 psu/a。     

Interannual variability of the Kuroshio intrusion in the South China Sea

The interannual variability of intrusions of the Kuroshio into the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated using satellite remote sensing data supported by in-situ measurements. The mesoscale circulation of the SCS is predominantly wind-forced by the northeast winter and southwest summer monsoons. Although the region has been studied extensively, considerable uncertainty remains about the annual and interannual mesoscale nature of the circulation. The frequency and characteristics of Kuroshio intrusions and their effect on circulation patterns in the northeast SCS are also not well understood. Satellite observations of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Sea Surface Height Anomalies (SSHA) from TOPEX/ Poseidon for the period 1997–2005 are used here to analyze the annual and interannual variability in Kuroshio intrusions and their effects on the region. Analysis of SST and SSHA shows the formation and characteristics of intrusions vary considerably each year. Typically, the intrusion occurs in the central region of Luzon Strait and results in an anticyclonic circulation in the northeastern SCS. However, in some years, the intrusion is located in the northern portion of Luzon Strait and a cyclonic intrusion results. Wind stress and wind stress curl derived from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) QuikSCAT satellite scatterometer are used to evaluate the relationship between wind stress or wind stress curl and the presence of winter Kuroshio intrusions into the SCS.     

东海海表面温度长期变化趋势研究

通过对卫星海表面温度资料的分析，研究了东海表面温度的长期变化趋势。发现东海存在41个月左右的变化周期，并与ENSO有一定的关系。海表面温度变异最大的区域在东海北部由长江口至济州岛南部区域。     

中国东海海平面长期变化与趋势研究

From the analyses of the satellite altimeter Maps of Sea Level Anomaly(MSLA) data, tidal gauge sea level data and historical sea level data, this paper investigates the long-term sea level variability in the East China Sea(ECS).Based on the correlation analysis, we calculate the correlation coefficient between tidal gauge and the closest MSLA grid point, then generate the map of correlation coefficient of the entire ECS. The results show that the satellite altimeter MSLA data is effective to observe coastal sea level variability. An important finding is that from map of correlation coefficient we can identify the Kuroshio. The existence of Kuroshio decreases the correlation between coastal and the Pacific sea level. Kurishio likes a barrier or a wall, which blocks the effect of the Pacific and the global change. Moreover, coastal sea level in the ECS is mainly associated with local systems rather than global change. In order to calculate the long-term sea level variability trend, the empirical mode decomposition(EMD) method is applied to derive the trend on each MSLA grid point in the entire ECS. According to the 2-D distribution of the trend and rising rate, the sea level on the right side of the axis of Kuroshio rise faster than in its left side. This result supports the barrier effect of Kuroshio in the ECS. For the entire ECS, the average sea level rose 45.0 mm between 1993 and 2010, with a rising rate of(2.5±0.4) mm/a which is slower than global average.The relatively slower sea level rising rate further proves that sea level rise in the ECS has less response to global change due to its own local system effect.     

Vertical structure of low-frequency currents in the southwestern East Sea (Sea of Japan)

The vertical structure of low-frequency flows in the central Ulleung Interplain Gap of the southwestern East Sea (Sea of Japan) is analyzed based on full-depth current measurement during November 2002–April 2004. Record-length mean flows are directed toward the Ulleung Basin (Tsushima Basin) throughout the entire water column. Upper current variability above the permanent thermocline with a dominant period of about 50–60 days is shown to be closely related to the displacement of an anticyclonic warm eddy associated with the westward meander of the Offshore Branch. Fluctuations of deep currents below the permanent thermocline have a dominant period of about 40 days. Coherence between the current near the seabed and shallower depths is statistically significant up to 360 m for a period range between 15 and 100 days, but less significantly correlated with currents in the upper 200 m. Data from the densely equipped mooring line reveal that mean and eddy kinetic energies are minima at 1000 m, where isotherm slopes are also relatively flat. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses suggest that more than 79% of total variances of upper and deep currents can be explained by their respective first EOF mode characterized by nearly depth-independent eigenvectors. Spectral and EOF analyses of observed currents suggest that most of the deep current variability is not directly related to local upper current variability during the observation period.     

利用卫星高度计资料对台湾海峡流量变化的诊断分析

利用AVISO的MSLA海面高度距平资料和NCEP风场资料，应用张庆华等导出的渠道流的解，诊断计算了1993-2001年台湾海峡流量及其变化。结果表明，台湾海峡的年平均流量为1．27Sv，夏季最大，平均为2．27Sv；秋季最小，平均为0．46Sv，季节变化明显。分析认为，台湾海峡流量变化的决定性因素是台湾海峡南北方向海平面倾斜。局地风的驱动是次要因素，它所产生的流量变化具有显著的规律性，基本为南向流。     

南海QuikSCAT海面风场变化特征分析

基于QuikSCAT海面风场产品,对海面风场资料进行了EOF分析和随机动态分析,以此分析南海海面风场的变化特征。研究发现:海面原始风场风速季节变化最为明显,其变化占总变化方差的59.1%,黑潮的季节变化通过海气相互作用对南海局地风场有较明显的影响;原始风场第三模态及异常风场第二模态时间变化函数与SOI和PDO弱相关,且异常风场第二模态时间变化函数谱分析结果主要呈现5年的周期变化,南海海面风场变化与年际振荡有关;南海大部分海区风速呈现增长的趋势,但增长速率较小;风速增大最快的区域是台湾海峡以南海域和北部湾,增长速度达到0.05 ms-1a-1。