A Nonlinear Model of Level Variations in the Caspian Sea

A new thermophysical mechanism of the Caspian Sea level variations is proposed. The mechanism incorporates the effect exerted on the dynamics of the water budget of the Caspian Sea by the nonlinear dependence of the evaporation rate on the moistening of the basin.     

Natural Tritium as an Indicator of Changes in the Vertical Structure of Caspian Sea Water Mass with Sea Level Variations

Analysis of changes in the vertical distribution of tritium in the Caspian Sea water mass in 1994–1996 led to a conclusion that the sea level fall that started in 1996 was accompanied by a rearrangement of the water mass steady hydrological structure characteristic of the high sea-level stand.__________Translated from Vodnye Resursy, Vol. 32, No. 4, 2005, pp. 406–409.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Brezgunov, Ferronskii.     

Level Variations in the Caspian Sea under Different Climate Conditions by the Data of Simulation under CMIP6 Project

Water Resources - Water balance components for the territory of the Volga basin and Caspian Sea water area have been analyzed using the results of climatic simulation under CMIP6 Project for...     

Space and Time Variations of Organic Matter in Caspian Sea Water

Water Resources - The analysis of data on the space and time variations of the concentrations and element composition of organic matter dissolved in Caspian Sea water over 2010–2015 showed...     

Probabilistic Regularities in Setup Variations in the Level of a Large Inland Water Body: Case Study of the Caspian Sea

The results of probabilistic analysis of data on setup level variations collected during long-term observations at all gages along the Caspian Sea coast are discussed. A procedure for evaluating low-probability sea level extremes is proposed. Estimates are given for the probabilities of outstanding setups in the Caspian Sea and the Sea of Azov.     

Long-Term Variations in the Vertical Thermohaline Structure in Deep-Water Zones of the Caspian Sea

Long-term variability in water temperature and salinity in August has been determined for deep-water segments of standard profiles in the Central and Southern Caspian Sea based on data of on-board observations carried out in 1956–2000. Estimates of parameters of the vertical thermohaline structure of waters were obtained for four time intervals. These estimates have been compared to the variability in the main external factors governing the formation of thermohaline regime. Appreciable long-term variations in the vertical thermohaline structure of waters, caused by a nonperiodic alternation of two main types of hydrological processes in the Caspian Sea are revealed. Qualitative characteristics of these two types are presented.     

Tritium in the Caspian Sea

The tritium content of the surface water on the south shore of the Caspian Sea was determined in samples taken in two- to three-month intervals for the period of time from 1960 to 1970. Tritium concentrations following the massive H-bomb testing in 1962 and 1963 were particularly high in this water, much higher than in the surface waters of the open oceans. The data are interesting in connection with the tritium inventories on the continents and with the persistence of inert chemical pollutants in the surface layers of water masses.     

A Procedure for Calculating Extreme Characteristics of the Northern Caspian Sea Level

A procedure is proposed for calculating extreme characteristics of the level of a sea with allowance for positive and negative setups. Analysis is made of past storm events in the Northern Caspian Sea that have caused strong setups. Sixty-three storm weather patterns are chosen from a period of 45 years. Time ring synoptic maps are used to digitize the atmospheric pressure fields and calculate the field of its gradient and the wind near water surface. Based on these data, the sea level values and currents are calculated through two- and three-dimensional hydrodynamic models. A probabilistic model along with computer-aided data treatment procedures are used to calculate the fields of extreme characteristics of the sea level at the Lagan gage with the occurrence of once per N years at the average Caspian Sea level of 27 m below SL.     

Relative Sea Level Variations Caused by Subduction

By means of a stratified Earth model with viscoelastic rheology, we have studied the long-term global fluctuations of Relative Sea Level (RSL) induced by subducting slabs. We have computed RSL variations for both a single subduction and a realistic distribution of slabs by a numerical simulation based on a simplified model of the subduction process. RSL is determined by the offset between the geoid and the dynamic topography; our analysis demonstrates that the latter provides the prevailing contribution. We have studied, in addition, the effects of rheological stratification upon the amplitude and time-evolution of these two quantities and, consequently, of RSL fluctuations. According to our results, an upper bound for the rate of RSL associated with subduction is of the order of 0.1 mm/yr, in agreement with previous studies. This rate of sea level variation is comparable with that attributed to changes in the tectonic regime on a large scale. This preliminary result corroborates the suggestion by other authors to include subduction in the list of geophysical mechanisms which contribute to long-term RSL fluctuations.     

Anthropogenic Radionuclides in the Caspian Sea

Analysis and interpretation of the distribution of anthropogenic radionuclides ⁹⁰Sr, ¹³⁷Cs, and ^239,240Pu in the Caspian Sea water are presented. These radionuclides are shown to be of environmental importance and to be useful for studying water mass dynamics.     

Studying Long-term Variations in the Caspian Sea with the Use of the Theory of Stochastic Differential Equations

Nonlinear mechanisms of long-term variations in the Caspian Sea level are described. It is shown that with account taken of the dependence of the evaporation depth from the Volga basin surface on soil moisture content and the dependence of the evaporation depth from the sea surface on its level, we obtain a fundamentally new (chaotic) oscillation mechanism with several attraction levels. The stochastic differential equations describing the water budget of the sea basin and the sea proper and the respective solutions of the Fokker–Planck–Kolmogorov equation are shown to have stationary bimodal density of the level probability. The random process, characterizing the sea level variations at a nonlinear dependence between the evaporation rate and the level is found to be non-Gaussian. Noise-induced transitions, caused by nonlinear evaporation processes are described. A new nonlinear stochastic theory describing the Caspian Sea level variations and based on predicted physical effects is suggested.     

长江三角洲地区全新世以来海面变化与古洪水发生关系探讨

通过对长江三角洲地区埋藏古树、泥炭、以及海相贝壳测年资料以及地方志、历史文献当中关于研究区洪灾事件记录的搜集、整理,研究结果表明,由于长江三角洲地区地势低平这一地貌特点,使得海面变化对于研究区洪灾的发生有着重要的影响.在长江中下游地区,海面的上升是导致冰后期长江河谷泥沙加积的主要原因,随着海面的上升和河床的抬高,长江中下游的水位也随之上升,从而导致长江洪水期排泄不畅,加重了洪灾的影响,加上长江三角洲地势低平,使海面变化成为长江三角洲地区洪灾发生的一个重要影响因子.同时,海面上升对长江水流的顶托作用也是加剧洪灾危害的一个重要原因.本文对于未来研究区洪水发生的预测,加强海岸带地区自然灾害的预防工作,减少生命财产的损失,具有一定的理论与实践意义.     

Current Variations in the Wind Speed Vector and the Rate of Evaporation from the Caspian Sea Surface

Regularities in the rearrangement of the surface atmospheric circulation in the Caspian Sea region are studied. It is found that during the current rise in the Caspian Sea level, a statistically significant decrease in the wind speed modulus occurred (mainly in autumn and winter winds of zonal directions). This caused a decrease in the rate of evaporation in the region. The results of this study testify to a need for developing a deterministic model of current variations in the Caspian Sea water regime at varying global and regional climate.     

Organochlorinated compounds in Caspian Sea sediments

Several organochlorinated contaminants, including numerous pesticides, were determined in coastal sediments from the Caspian Sea. The most important contaminants were p,p'-DDT (up to 7400 pg g(-1)) and its breakdown products, p,p'-DDD (up to 3400 pg g(-1)) and p,p'-DDE (up to 1300 pg g(-1)). Although the contamination was most severe in Azerbaijan, the sediment concentrations and percentage distribution of the three DDT-related compounds indicated that such contamination constitutes a contemporary and ubiquitous problem in the Caspian Sea. Lindane represented the second most significant contaminant, particularly in the Russian Federation, with concentrations up to 609 pg g(-1). The concentrations of HCB and other chlorinated pesticides (cis- and trans-chlordane, methoxychlor, heptachlor, heptachlor epoxide, aldrin, endrin, and endosulfans) were lower and not generally of concern, but the pesticides did demonstrate markedly different distributions reflecting differing agricultural usage in the region. The concentrations of Sigma PCBs were also quite low and ranged from 0.03 to 6.4 ng g(-1), with the highest amounts in the Russian Federation and Azerbaijan.     

The Sources of Uncertainty in Forecasting Caspian Sea Level and Estimating the Inundation Risk of Coastal Areas

Stochastic variations in the climate and hydrological regime, both natural and anthropogenic, are the main cause of uncertainty in long-term hydrological forecasts and hence increase the estimated risk of economic activity in the coastal zone of internal seas. Some sources of uncertainty, which appear during the hydrological analysis, are considered with the purpose to assess this risk. Digital relief models were used to determine the morphological characteristics (as functions of the sea level) and assess their contribution to variations in the level regime. To take into account the sample uncertainty in the parameter estimates of stochastic models of the “impellent” processes, it is proposed to use the existing methodology of probabilistic-deterministic prediction of water level variations in a closed water body in combination with the Bayesian approach.     

Variations in wind direction and speed from arctic to the Caspian Sea as a manifestation of modern climate changes

The regularities in present-day variations in the wind speed vector are examined at 18 stations along the section from Kola Peninsula to the Caspian Sea. Data on long-term variations in the major climate-forming factors and climatic parameters are generalized. The statistically significant tendency toward a considerable decline in the wind speed with a maximum module and the most frequent wind speeds of zonal, mostly western, directions (this tendency has been revealed earlier for the eastern coast of the middle and southern Caspian Sea) was found to hold for the greater part of the European Russia. Possible causes of present-day climate changes and their manifestations at the regional level are analyzed. A possible mechanism of present-day climate changes is proposed     

Hydrocarbons in the modern sediments of the Caspian Sea

The presented results have been obtained in a study of the concentrations and composition of aliphatic and polycyclic hydrocarbons in bottom sediments of Volga delta branches and in its shallow zone (2009–2010), as well as the Caspian Sea proper (2010–2013). Oil hydrocarbon pollution has been found to manifest itself mostly in Volga delta branches, which, despite the low concentrations (up to 54.5 μg/g), showed higher hydrocarbons share in C_org (up to 33.8%), while the composition of alkanes suggested their oil genesis. The geochemical barrier the Volga–the Caspian Sea prevents anthropogenic hydrocarbons from entering the open parts of the Caspian. Bottom sediments in the shallow zone of the Northern Caspian, represented by coarse-grained material, are now polluted by oil hydrocarbons to a lesser extent compared with other areas. The highest concentrations of aliphatic hydrocarbons (up to 178 μg/g) were recorded in the deepsea bottom sediments of Derbent Depression and in depressions of the Middle and Southern Caspian. These areas show a higher concentration of C_org (up to 9.884%) and a low concentration of hydrocarbons in C_org (up to 0.16%), while odd high-molecular homologues (n-C₂₅–C₃₁) dominate in the composition of alkanes.     

Nonlinear dynamics of level variations in the Caspian Sea

Caspian Sea level variations, which have several equilibrium states, are studied by the methods of the theory of nonlinear dynamic systems. Normal monthly values of sea level according to data collected at Makhachkala gauge from 1900 to 2000 are considered. The diagnostic characteristics of dynamic chaos are used to show that sea level variations have some properties of series with chaotic behavior. A model of level variations in the Caspian Sea, comprising a system of water balance equations for the sea basin, the dynamics of river runoff, and water balance of the sea itself, is proposed. Equation of a nonlinear oscillator is derived and shown to have solutions with chaotic regimes at some combinations of parameters.     

Present-day changes in water consumption in the Caspian Sea basin

Indices characterizing the withdrawal of water resources in the basins of rivers flowing into the Caspian Sea and the use of these resources in different economic sectors in 1970–2003 are analyzed. The dynamics of disposal of wastewaters and collector-drainage waters is discussed. Tendencies in changes in the volumes of consumptive water use in the basins of individual rivers and the Caspian Sea as a whole are identified.     

Recent Changes in Land Water Storage and its Contribution to Sea Level Variations

Sea level rise is generally attributed to increased ocean heat content and increased rates glacier and ice melt. However, human transformations of Earth’s surface have impacted water exchange between land, atmosphere, and ocean, ultimately affecting global sea level variations. Impoundment of water in reservoirs and artificial lakes has reduced the outflow of water to the sea, while river runoff has increased due to groundwater mining, wetland and endorheic lake storage losses, and deforestation. In addition, climate-driven changes in land water stores can have a large impact on global sea level variations over decadal timescales. Here, we review each component of negative and positive land water contribution separately in order to highlight and understand recent changes in land water contribution to sea level variations.