Pyroclastic flow hazard assessment at Somma–Vesuvius based on the geological record

During the past 22 ka of activity at Somma–Vesuvius, catastrophic pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) have been generated repeatedly. Examples are those that destroyed the towns of Pompeii and Ercolano in AD 79, as well as Torre del Greco and several circum-Vesuvian villages in AD 1631. Using new field data and data available from the literature, we delineate the area impacted by PDCs at Somma–Vesuvius to improve the related hazard assessment. We mainly focus on the dispersal, thickness, and extent of the PDC deposits generated during seven plinian and sub-plinian eruptions, namely, the Pomici di Base, Greenish Pumice, Pomici di Mercato, Pomici di Avellino, Pompeii Pumice, AD 472 Pollena, and AD 1631 eruptions. We present maps of the total thickness of the PDC deposits for each eruption. Five out of seven eruptions dispersed PDCs radially, sometimes showing a preferred direction controlled by the position of the vent and the paleotopography. Only the PDCs from AD 1631 eruption were influenced by the presence of the Mt Somma caldera wall which stopped their advance in a northerly direction. Most PDC deposits are located downslope of the pronounced break-in slope that marks the base of the Somma–Vesuvius cone. PDCs from the Pomici di Avellino and Pompeii Pumice eruptions have the most dispersed deposits (extending more than 20 km from the inferred vent). These deposits are relatively thin, normally graded, and stratified. In contrast, thick, massive, lithic-rich deposits are only dispersed within 7 to 8 km of the vent. Isopach maps and the deposit features reveal that PDC dispersal was strongly controlled by the intensity of the eruption (in terms of magma discharge rate), the position of the vent area with respect to the Mt Somma caldera wall, and the pre-existing topography. Facies characteristics of the PDC deposits appear to correlate with dispersal; the stratified facies are consistently dispersed more widely than the massive facies.     

The February–July 2007 eruption of the summit crater of Klyuchevskoi volcano, Kamchatka

Observations of the summit eruption of Klyuchevskoi volcano in the period from February 15, 2007 to July 9, 2007 are considered. This typical (for this volcano) summit eruption was explosive-effusive in character. The ejectamenta volume is estimated at 0.025 km³. Calculation of active phases of the volcano was carried out in accordance with V.A. Shirokov’s technique. The identified active phases agree well with the eruptive periods. The 2007 summit eruption corresponds to an active phase (May 2006 to May 2009) favorable for the volcano’s eruption. Geodetic observations carried out since 1979 along a radial profile have revealed uplifts and subsidences of the northeastern slope of the volcano. The maximum displacement of 23 cm was recorded in 2007 on the site closest to the volcano crater at a distance of 11 km from the summit crater center. In the course of two previous summit eruptions (2003–2004 and 2005) insignificant uplifts and subsidences of the slope were also noted, although the general ascent of the slope remained. This indicated possible repeated eruptions in the nearest future. Changes in the seismicity before, during and after the eruption are also discussed.     

Small inflation sources producing seismic and infrasonic pulses during the 2000 eruptions of Miyake-jima, Japan

During the 2000 activity of Miyake-jima volcano, Japan, we detected long period seismic signals with initial pulse widths of 1-2 s, accompanied by infrasonic pulses with almost the same pulse widths. The seismic signals were observed from 13 July 2000, a day before the second summit eruption. The occurrences of the seismic signals were intermittent with a gradual increase in their magnitudes and numbers building toward a significant explosive eruption on 18 August. After the eruption, the seismic and infrasonic events ceased. The results of a waveform inversion show that the initial motions were excited by an isotropic inflation source beneath the south edge of the caldera at a depth of 1.4 km. On the other hand, the sources of the infrasonic pulses were located in the summit caldera area. The times at which the infrasonic pulses were emitted at the surface were delayed by about 3 s from the origin times of the seismic events. It is suggested that small isotropic inflations excited seismic waves in the crust and simultaneously caused acoustic waves that traveled in the conduit and produced infrasonic pulses at the crater bottom. Considering the observed time differences and gas temperatures emitted from the vent, the conduit should have been filled with vapor mixed with SO₂ gas and volcanic ash. The change of the time differences between the seismic and infrasonic signals suggests that the seismic source became shallower within half a day before the August 18 explosive eruption. We interpret the source process as a fragmentation process of magma in which gas bubbles burst and quickly released part of the pressure that had been sustained by the tensional strength of magma.     

Risk assessment of the impact of pyroclastic currents on the towns located around Vesuvio: a non-linear structural inverse analysis

In a.d. 79, the catastrophic eruption of Vesuvio, which later was described in two famous letters by Pliny the Younger to Tacitus the Historian, destroyed Pompeii, Hercolaneum, Oplontis and Stabiae, resulting in many thousand of victims. After a few hours of the eruption, the several-kilometre-high volcanic column began to collapse, provoking strong air shocks as well as destructive pyroclastic density currents, which travelled down the volcano slopes. In 2000, an archaeological excavation survey, which was performed on the east slope of the volcano in the Terzigno–Vesuvio area at a distance of about 5 km from the vent, brought to light the ruins of several Roman villas that were completely destroyed by these currents during the a.d. 79 eruption. The present paper proposes a new structural analysis, which starts from the study of the damage produced on partially collapsed masonry walls, and determines the dynamic pressures of the currents that overran this site. The non-linear structural analysis, which is based on strength values obtained by means of experimental tests, is of the 'inverse type' and takes into account the limit behaviour of the ancient Roman masonry. The values of the dynamic pressures that were capable of producing the collapse of the masonry walls were obtained by utilising a modern limit analysis theory. The obtained results show that dynamic pressures of a few kPa (1–5) were able to cause masonry buildings to collapse. These values are consistent with those proposed in some of the latest volcanological studies made by numerical simulations of pyroclastic flow propagation. It is shown here that these dynamic pressures are even able to determine the collapse of both modern reinforced concrete and masonry wall buildings that are largely present in the area. Therefore, in possible future eruptions, dynamic pressures of this magnitude would flatten a large urbanised area, where ~700,000 people are currently living. The obtained results give a better definition of both the risk to pyroclastic currents in possible Vesuvio eruptions and provide new guidelines for construction in the neighbouring zones.Editorial responsibility: A. Woods     

Bayesian event tree for eruption forecasting (BET_EF) at Vesuvius,Italy: a retrospective forward application to the 1631 eruption

Reliable forecasting of the next eruption at Vesuvius is the main scientific factor in defining effective strategies to reduce volcanic risk in one of the most dangerous volcanic areas of the world. In this paper, we apply a recently developed probabilistic code for eruption forecasting to new and independent historical data related to the pre-eruptive phase of the 1631 eruption. The results obtained point out three main issues: (1) the importance of “cold” historical data (according to Guidoboni 2008) related to pre-eruptive phases for evaluating forecasting tools and possibly refining them; (2) the BET_EF code implemented for Vesuvius would have forecasted the 1631 eruption satisfactorily, marking different stages of the pre-eruptive phase; (3) the code shows that pre-eruptive signals that significantly increase the probability of eruption were likely detected more than 2 months before the event.     

First historical evidence of a significant Mt. Etna eruption in 1224

The 1224 Mt. Etna eruption is a significant event both in terms of the mass of erupted materials and because it involved the lower eastern slope of the volcano, reaching down to the sea. Nevertheless, it is unknown to current historical catalogues. According to the historical sources, only two other lava flows actually reached as far as the sea: in 396 BC, just north of the present-day inhabited area of Acireale, according to the geological data alone, and in 1669, when the lava covered the south-eastern flank of Mt. Etna and damaged Catania. We present and discuss the two medieval sources that attest to the eruption of 1224 and make available the original texts. Furthermore, through the close analysis of the historical and topographic context of the Etna area, taking account of the roads and ports in the early 13th century, we have tried to single out the possible area of the lava's outlet into the sea in 1224 on historical grounds. A repeat of an eruption similar to that of 1224 would have a serious impact today as the coast is densely populated.     

The relevance of the 1198 eruption of Solfatara in the Phlegraean Fields (Campi Flegrei) as revealed by medieval manuscripts and historical sources

The Phlegraean Fields (Campi Flegrei) caldera in Italy had one well-documented eruption during the historical period (1538). Another eruption at Solfatara in 1198 is reported by sixteenth and seventeenth-century scholars, and has been commonly regarded as uncertain. In this paper we first discuss the circumstantial evidence and report of this eruption, then discuss the relevance of drawings made in the thirteenth through the fifteenth century illustrating the Solfatara and the primary literary and historical sources describing the site. We infer that the eruption was at most a minor phreatic explosion and we explore the conditions that may have led to the occurrence of this event and the establishment of a small crater pool subsequently used as a thermal bath from the later Middle Ages onward.     

Seismological studies of the soufriere of St. Vincent, 1953-79: Implications for volcanic surveillance in the lesser antilles

The Soufriere of St. Vincent has been monitored for more than 25 years as part of a regional programme in the Lesser Antilles. In that time the volcano has erupted twice but our studies have shown no discernible change in regional seismicity before either event. However, very small seismic events were observed in the crater during the 1971–1972 eruption and were detected before the start of the 1979 explosive eruption; we believe that they were generated by thermally induced hydraulic fracturing within the lava mass inside the crater lake. We conclude that seismographic monitoring of Lesser Antillean volcanoes can give ambiguous results but that at least one instrument must be placed within 1 km of the vent if the earliest signs of activity are to be detected.     

Automatic Recognition of Landslides Based on Neural Network Analysis of Seismic Signals: An Application to the Monitoring of Stromboli Volcano (Southern Italy)

In the last 9 years, the amount and the quality of geophysical and volcanological observations of Stromboli's' activity have undergone a marked increase. This new information highlighted that the landslides on the Sciara del Fuoco flank are tightly linked to the volcanic activity. Actually, at the beginning of the December 28, 2002, effusive eruption, the seismic monitoring network was less dense than now, and therefore it is not known if there was an increase in the landslide rate before the eruption. Despite this, it is known that a big landslide occurred 2 days after the beginning of the eruption which caused a tsunami (December 30, 2002). More recently, the effusive eruption in February 2007 was preceded by an increase in landslides on the Sciara del Fuoco flank, which were recorded by the seismological monitoring system that had been improved after the 2002–2003 crisis. These episodes led us to believe that monitoring the Sciara del Fuoco flank instability is an important topic, and that landslides might be significant short-term precursors of effusive eruptions at the Stromboli volcano. To automatically detect landslide signals, we have developed a specialized neural algorithm. This can distinguish between landslides and the other types of seismic signals usually recorded at the Stromboli volcano (i.e., explosion quakes and volcanic tremor). The discrimination results show an average performance of 98.67 %. According to the experience of the crisis of 2007, to identify changes that can be considered as precursors of effusive eruptions, we set up an automatic decision-making method based on the neural network responses. This method can operate on a continuous data stream. It calculates a landslide percentage index (LPI) that depends on the number of records that are classified by the net as landslides over a given time interval. We tested the method on February 27, 2007, including the beginning of the effusive phase. The index showed an increase as early as at 09:00 UTC on that day and reached its maximum value (100 %) at 12:00, about 40 min before the onset of the eruption. After the beginning of the effusive phase, the index remains high due to the blocks that roll down along the slope from the front of the lava flow. On the basis of these tests, we propose a decision-making method that is able to recognize a trend in the LPI similar to that of 2007 eruption, allowing the identification of precursors of effusive phases at the Stromboli volcano.     

Precursory seismicity of the 1994 eruption of Popocatépetl Volcano,Central Mexico

Popocatépetl Volcano is located in the central Mexican Volcanic Belt, within a densely populated region inhabited by over 20 million people. The eruptive history of this volcano indicates that it is capable of producing a wide range of eruptions, including Plinian events. After nearly 70 years of quiescence, Popocatépetl reawakened in December 21, 1994. The eruptive activity has continued up until the date of this submission and has been characterized by a succession of lava dome growth-and-destruction episodes, similar to events that have apparently been typical for Popocatépetl since the fourteenth century. In this regime, the episodes of effusive and moderately explosive activity alternate with long periods of almost total quiescence. In this paper we analyze five years of volcano-tectonic seismicity preceding the initial eruption of the current episode. The evolution of the V-T seismicity shows four distinct stages, which we interpret in terms of the internal processes which precede an eruption after a long period of quiescence. The thermal effects of a magma intrusion at depth, the fracturing related to the slow development of magma-related fluid pathways, the concentration of stress causing a protracted acceleration of this process, and a final relaxation or redistribution of the stress shortly before the initial eruption are reflected in the rates of V-T seismic energy release. A hindsight analysis of this activity shows that the acceleration of the seismicity in the third stage asymptotically forecast the time of the eruption. The total seismic energy release needed to produce an eruption after a long period of quiescence is related to the volume of rock that must be fractured so imposing a characteristic threshold limit for polygenetic volcanoes, limit that was reached by Popocatépetl before the eruption.     

Age and whole rock–glass compositions of proximal pyroclastics from the major explosive eruptions of Somma-Vesuvius: A review as a tool for distal tephrostratigraphy

A review of compositional data of the major explosive eruptions of Vesuvius is presented, comparing compositions (major elements) of whole rock with glass shards from the proximal deposits, hopefully useful for long-distance correlation. A critical review of published and new geochronological data is also provided. All available ¹⁴C ages are calibrated to give calendar ages useful for the reconstruction of the volcanological evolution of the volcanic complex. The pyroclastic deposits of the four major Plinian eruptions (22,000 yr cal BP “Pomici di Base”, 8900 yr cal BP “Mercato Pumice”, 4300 yr cal BP “Avellino Pumice”, and A.D. 79 “Pompeii Pumice”) are widely dispersed and allow a four-folded, Plinian to Plinian, stratigraphic division: 1. B–M (between Pomici di Base and Mercato); 2. M–A (between Mercato and Avellino); 3. A–P (between Avellino and Pompeii); 4. P–XX (from the Pompeii Pumice to the last erupted products of the XXth century). Within each interval, the age, lithologic and compositional features of pyroclastic deposits of major eruptions, potentially useful for tephrostratigraphic purposes on distal areas, are briefly discussed. The Vesuvius rocks are mostly high Potassic products, widely variable in terms of their silica saturation. They form three groups, different for both composition and age: 1. slightly undersaturated, older than Mercato eruption; 2. mildly undersaturated, from Mercato to Pompeii eruptions; 3. highly undersaturated, younger than Pompeii eruption. For whole rock analyses, the peculiar variations in contents of some major and trace elements as well as different trends in element/element ratios, allow a clear, unequivocal, easy diagnosis of the group they belong. Glass analyses show large compositional overlap between different groups, but selected element vs. element plots are distinctive for the three groups. The comparative analysis of glass and whole rock major element compositions provides reliable geochemical criteria helping in the recognition, frequently not obvious, of distal products from the different single eruptions.     

Coda Q before and after the eruptions of 13 November 1985, and 1 September 1989, at Nevado del Ruiz Volcano, Colombia

 Coda Q^–1 was calculated at Nevado del Ruiz Volcano (NRV) before and after two phreatomagmatic eruptions (November 1985, September 1989) and for a period of stability (May 1987) using a functional form for coda derived from a single scattering model (Sato 1977). Substantial changes were found before and after the eruptions. The highest value of Q^–1 was found during the November 1985 eruption, an intermediate value for the September 1989 eruption, and the lowest value for May 1987. It seems that the changes in coda Q^–1 at NRV have a still-unknown relationship with the volume or magnitude of the eruption. A relatively strong frequency dependence was found for all periods. Also Q^–1 clearly changed with time, suggesting that the scattering was strong for the eruption of November 1985 and decreased for the eruption of September 1989, and that the intrinsic absorption probably increased. This suggests the possibility that crystallization is taking place in the NRV magma. The clear change of coda Q^–1 before and after the eruptions at NRV also suggests the possibility that coda Q^–1 is a premonitory tool of activity at this volcano. Received: 25 October 1996 / Accepted: 21 January 1998     

Seismic activity related to the 2000 eruption of the Hekla volcano, Iceland

The 2000 Hekla eruption took place from February 26 to March 8. Its seismic expressions were a swarm of numerous small earthquakes related to its onset, and low-frequency volcanic tremor that continued throughout the eruption. A swarm of small earthquakes was observed some 80 min before the onset of the eruption, and the size of the events increased with time. Low-frequency volcanic tremor, with a characteristic frequency band of 0.5–1.5 Hz and dominant spectral peak(s) at 0.7–0.9 Hz, became visible at 18:19 GMT on February 26, marking the onset of the eruption. The tremor amplitude rose quickly and was very high in the beginning of the eruption. However, it soon began to decrease after about an hour. In general, the seismic activity related to the 2000 Hekla eruption was very similar to what was observed in the previous eruption in 1991. Based on knowledge gained from seismicity and strain observations from 1991, this was the first time that a Hekla eruption was predicted.Editorial responsibility: J Stix     

Pyroclastic deposits as a guide for reconstructing the multi-stage evolution of the Somma-Vesuvius Caldera

 The evolution of the Somma-Vesuvius caldera has been reconstructed based on geomorphic observations, detailed stratigraphic studies, and the distribution and facies variations of pyroclastic and epiclastic deposits produced by the past 20,000 years of volcanic activity. The present caldera is a multicyclic, nested structure related to the emptying of large, shallow reservoirs during Plinian eruptions. The caldera cuts a stratovolcano whose original summit was at 1600–1900 m elevation, approximately 500 m north of the present crater. Four caldera-forming events have been recognized, each occurring during major Plinian eruptions (18,300 BP "Pomici di Base", 8000 BP "Mercato Pumice", 3400 BP "Avellino Pumice" and AD 79 "Pompeii Pumice"). The timing of each caldera collapse is defined by peculiar "collapse-marking" deposits, characterized by large amounts of lithic clasts from the outer margins of the magma chamber and its apophysis as well as from the shallow volcanic and sedimentary units. In proximal sites the deposits consist of coarse breccias resulting from emplacement of either dense pyroclastic flows (Pomici di Base and Pompeii eruptions) or fall layers (Avellino eruption). During each caldera collapse, the destabilization of the shallow magmatic system induced decompression of hydrothermal–magmatic and hydrothermal fluids hosted in the wall rocks. This process, and the magma–ground water interaction triggered by the fracturing of the thick Mesozoic carbonate basement hosting the aquifer system, strongly enhanced the explosivity of the eruptions. Received: 24 November 1997 / Accepted: 23 March 1999     

Overview of the 1990–1995 eruption at Unzen Volcano

Following 198 years of dormancy, a small phreatic eruption started at the summit of Unzen Volcano (Mt. Fugen) in November 1990. A swarm of volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes had begun below the western flank of the volcano a year before this eruption, and isolated tremor occurred below the summit shortly before it. The focus of VT events had migrated eastward to the summit and became shallower. Following a period of phreatic activity, phreatomagmatic eruptions began in February 1991, became larger with time, and developed into a dacite dome eruption in May 1991 that lasted approximately 4 years. The emergence of the dome followed inflation, demagnetization and a swarm of high-frequency (HF) earthquakes in the crater area. After the dome appeared, activity of the VT earthquakes and the summit HF events was replaced largely by low-frequency (LF) earthquakes. Magma was discharged nearly continuously through the period of dome growth, and the rate decreased roughly with time. The lava dome grew in an unstable form on the shoulder of Mt. Fugen, with repeating partial collapses. The growth was exogenous when the lava effusion rate was high, and endogenous when low. A total of 13 lobes grew as a result of exogenous growth. Vigorous swarms of LF earthquakes occurred just prior to each lobe extrusion. Endogenous growth was accompanied by strong deformation of the crater floor and HF and LF earthquakes. By repeated exogenous and endogenous growth, a large dome was formed over the crater. Pyroclastic flows frequently descended to the northeast, east, and southeast, and their deposits extensively covered the eastern slope and flank of Mt. Fugen. Major pyroclastic flows took place when the lava effusion rate was high. Small vulcanian explosions were limited in the initial stage of dome growth. One of them occurred following collapse of the dome. The total volume of magma erupted was 2.1×10⁸ m³ (dense-rock-equivalent); about a half of this volume remained as a lava dome at the summit (1.2 km long, 0.8 km wide and 230–540 m high). The eruption finished with extrusion of a spine at the endogenous dome top. Several monitoring results convinced us that the eruption had come to an end: the minimal levels of both seismicity and rockfalls, no discharge of magma, the minimal SO₂ flux, and cessation of subsidence of the western flank of the volcano. The dome started slow deformation and cooling after the halt of magma effusion in February 1995.     

The petrology of basalts from Surtla (Surtsey), Iceland

Surtla is the site of a short-lived submarine vent which built basaltic elastic deposits almost to sea level, in 1963, early in the eruption of Surtsey. Since then wave and current activity have eroded the volcanic pile such that in July 1981 its top was a fairly level plateau 45 m below sea level, and its surface comprised a lag deposit of sparse blocks of lava in a bed mainly of glass granules. This winnowed layer was underlain by a nonreworked, poorly sorted and finer deposit of glassy clasts formed by a combination of disruption by magmatic volatiles, steam explosions and quench brecciation. During the eruption, the explosion violence and associated comminution increased as the pile built up to shallower water depths. It is argued that at times of continuous effusion a cupola of steam was situated over the vent, as indicated by scoriaceous spatter which shows agglutination and “bread-crust” features that can only have developed in conditions more akin to subaerial than hitherto envisaged in a subaqueous eruption.     

Pyroclast textural variation as an indicator of eruption column steadiness in andesitic Plinian eruptions at Mt. Ruapehu

Hudson is one of the most active volcanoes in the Southern Andes—it had one of the largest eruptions of the 20th century in 1991 (VEI?=?5) and smaller eruptions in 1971 (VEI?=?3), maybe 1973, and 2011 (VEI of 1-2). We use satellite-based interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and thermal imagery to characterize the activity of Hudson between 2004 and 2011 and during the 2011 eruption. InSAR data show that the volcano inflated between 2004 and 2010 with a maximum change rate of between 2 and 3 cm/yr—about half of the deformation rate observed during a previous deformation episode from 1993–1999. Inversion for an inflating point source suggests magma accumulation beneath the SW part of the caldera at an average depth of 10 km. This inferred source is deeper than both the sources estimated for the magma chamber of the 1991 eruption (from petrology) and for the 1993–1999 deformation event. Also, the deformation from 2004–2010 is centered at a slightly different location and has a smaller volume change than that between 1993–1999—further indicating that there is either a large magma reservoir or several separate ones. While the deformation center is a few km from the eruption location near the caldera rim, the two are possibly linked since the predicted static Coloumb stress changes due to the inferred inflation source would encourage unclamping on potential faults in the caldera rim. We also analize nighttime satellite thermal images from MODIS and ASTER. While MODIS did not show any unambiguous evidence for hot spots, ASTER thermal imagery show that at least four months before the eruption there were locations with temperatures 7–8ºK above background. Lahars observed by helicopter overflights on 4 March 2011 and October 2011 suggest that the hotspots may have been caused by lakes or subglacial melting. There is no InSAR data available for the months immediately preceding the eruption, but the ASTER thermal imagery results may indicate an increase in geothermal activity that could have been used to forecast the eruption.     

Evidence on the Koseda coast of Yakushima Island of a tsunami during the 7.3 ka Kikai caldera eruption

Previous research indicates that Yakushima Island, southwestern Japan, may have been struck by a huge tsunami before or soon after the arrival of the Koya pyroclastic flow during the 7.3 ka caldera‐forming Kikai eruption, but this has not yet been confirmed. This paper describes sedimentological and chronostratigraphic evidence showing that Unit TG, one of three gravel beds exposed on the Koseda coast of northeast Yakushima Island and investigated here, is a tsunami deposit. Unit TG is a poorly sorted, 30 cm thick gravel bed overlying a wave‐cut bench and underlying a Koya pyroclastic flow deposit. Sparse wood fragments in Unit TG were dated at 7 416–7 167 cal year BP. The constituent gravel clasts of Unit TG are similar in composition to those of modern beach and river deposits along the Koseda coast. Unit TG also contains pumice clasts whose chemistry is identical to that of pumice derived from the 7.3 ka eruption at Kikai caldera. The long‐axis orientations and composition of gravel clasts in Unit TG suggest that they were transported by a landward‐travelling high‐particle‐concentration flow, which suggests that Unit TG was deposited by a tsunami run‐up flow during the 7.3 ka Kikai caldera eruption, just before the arrival of the major Koya pyroclastic flow at the Koseda coast. Whether the 7.3 ka tsunami was caused by a volcanic eruption or an earthquake remains unclear, but Unit TG demonstrates that a tsunami arrived immediately before emplacement of a Koya pyroclastic flow.