Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) and Its Application to Habitat Sustainability for Endangered Species in the San Francisco Estuary

Salt marsh faunas are constrained by specific habitat requirements for marsh elevation relative to sea level and tidal range. As sea level rises, changes in relative elevation of the marsh plain will have differing impacts on the availability of habitat for marsh obligate species. The Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) is a 1-D model of elevation that incorporates both biological and physical processes of vertical marsh accretion. Here, we use WARMER to evaluate changes in marsh surface elevation and the impact of these elevation changes on marsh habitat for specific species of concern. Model results were compared to elevation-based habitat criteria developed for marsh vegetation, the endangered California clapper rail (Rallus longirostris obsoletus), and the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris) to determine the response of marsh habitat for each species to predicted >1-m sea-level rise by 2100. Feedback between vertical accretion mechanisms and elevation reduced the effect of initial elevation in the modeled scenarios. Elevation decreased nonlinearly with larger changes in elevation during the latter half of the century when the rate of sea-level rise increased. Model scenarios indicated that changes in elevation will degrade habitat quality within salt marshes in the San Francisco Estuary, and degradation will accelerate in the latter half of the century as the rate of sea-level rise accelerates. A sensitivity analysis of the model results showed that inorganic sediment accumulation and the rate of sea-level rise had the greatest influence over salt marsh sustainability.     

Surface elevation dynamics in vegetatedSpartina marshes versus unvegetated tidal ponds along the Mid-Atlantic coast, USA, with implications to waterbirds

Mid Atlantic coastal salt marshes contain a matrix of vegetation diversified by tidal pools, pannes, and creeks, providing habitats of varying importance to many species of breeding, migrating, and wintering waterbirds. We hypothesized that changes in marsh elevation were not sufficient to keep pace with those of sea level in both vegetated and unvegetatedSpartina alterniflora sites at a number of mid lagoon marsh areas along the Atlantic Coast. We also predicted that northern areas would suffer less of a deficit than would southern sites. Beginning in August 1998, we installed surface elevation tables at study sites on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, southern New Jersey, and two locations along Virginia's eastern shore. We compared these elevation changes over the 4–4.5 yr record with the long-term (>50 yr) tidal records for each locale. We also collected data on waterbird use of these sites during all seasons of the year, based on ground surveys and replicated surveys from observation platforms. Three patterns of marsh elevation change were found. At Nauset Marsh, Cape Cod, theSpartina marsh surface tracked the pond surface, both keeping pace with regional sea-level rise rates. In New Jersey, the ponds are becoming deeper while marsh surface elevation remains unchanged from the initial reading. This may result in a submergence of the marsh in the future, assuming sea-level rise continues at current rates. Ponds at both Virginia sites are filling in, while marsh surface elevation rates do not seem to be keeping pace with local sea-level rise. An additional finding at all sites was that subsidence in the vegetated marsh surfaces was less than in unvegetated areas, reflecting the importance of the root mat in stabilizing sediments. The implications to migratory waterbirds are significant. Submergence of much of the lagoonal marsh area in Virginia and New Jersey over the next century could have major negative (i.e., flooding) effects on nesting populations of marsh-dependent seaside sparrowsAmmodramus maritimus, saltmarsh sharp-tailed sparrowsAmmodramus caudacutus, black railsLaterallus jamaicensis, clapper railsRallus longirostris. Forster's ternsSterna forsteri, common ternsSterna hirundo, and gull-billed ternsSterna nilotica. Although short-term inundation of many lagoonal marshes may benefit some open-water feeding ducks, geese, and swans during winter, the long-term ecosystem effects may be detrimental, as wildlife resources will be lost or displaced. With the reduction in area of emergent marsh, estuarine secondary productivity and biotic diversity will also be reduced.     

Rates of Vegetation Dynamics Along Elevation Gradients in a Backbarrier Salt Marsh of the Danish Wadden Sea

The literature often holds that, in salt marshes, surface elevation mediates the depth, duration, and frequency of submergence, thereby constituting the fundamental factor of plant species distribution and most other environmental variables. However, such an elevation-centered view has not been fully tested in a temporal sense; it is still unclear whether elevation is also a significant control on the rate of changes in species composition over time. In the Skallingen salt marsh of the Danish Wadden Sea, this question was evaluated along two elevation gradients where distinct physical and ecological processes operate: a gradient across a marsh platform and the other across creek bars. The rate of vegetation dynamics was measured as the Euclidean distance between two positions of the same plot, each representing two different points in time, in a two-dimensional diagram produced by nonmetric multidimensional scaling. Results showed that the rate of vegetation dynamics did not show any significant relationships with surface elevation across either marsh platform or tidal creeks (R ² less than 0.04). This suggests that, other than elevation, some biological factors, such as the presence of keystone species and the initial species composition, control patterns of vegetation change in the marsh. This logic leads to a point that hydrological effects (e.g., inundation frequency and duration), often represented by surface elevation, are not necessarily overriding factors of rates of changes in species composition in backbarrier marshes like Skallingen. The conventional elevation-centered perspective may be an oversimplification of the biological and environmental variability of salt marshes.     

Influence of Wind-Driven Inundation and Coastal Geomorphology on Sedimentation in Two Microtidal Marshes, Pamlico River Estuary, NC

Marsh sediment accumulation is predominately a combination of in situ organic accumulation and mineral sediment input during inundation. Within the Pamlico River Estuary (PRE), marsh inundation is dependent upon event (e.g., storms) and seasonal wind patterns due to minimal astronomical tides (<10 cm). A better understanding of the processes controlling sediment deposition and, ultimately, marsh accretion is needed to forecast marsh sustainability with changing land usage, climate, and sea level rise. This study examines marsh topography, inundation depth, duration of inundation, and wind velocity to identify relationships between short-term deposition (tile-based) and long-term accumulation (²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs) recorded within and adjacent to the PRE. The results of this study indicate (1) similar sedimentation patterns between the interior marsh and shore-side marsh at different sites regardless of elevation, (2) increased sedimentation (one to two orders of magnitude, 0.04–4.54 g m^?2 day^?1) within the interior marsh when the water levels exceeded the adjacent topography (e.g., storm berm), and (3) that short-term sea level changes can have direct effects on sediment delivery to interior marshes in wind-driven estuarine systems.     

Salt Marsh Sustainability: Challenges During an Uncertain Future

Many salt marshes throughout southern New England are exhibiting a trend toward submergence, as reported in this volume and other published literature. This paper provides a brief perspective on sea-level rise and the many other interacting factors that contribute to marsh submergence in this and other regions. Curtailing nutrient loading and removing or altering barriers (e.g., dams, dikes) to the delivery of suspended sediment to marshes are discussed as management or restoration techniques to consider for increasing long-term sustainability of marshes. Adaptation measures are many (e.g., thin-layer sediment application to marsh surface, facilitation of landward marsh migration, shoreline stabilization), but all require study to evaluate their potential for enhancing resilience. Research, monitoring, and dynamic modeling, coupled with appropriate management and adaptation approaches implemented at local and regional scales, will contribute to the challenge of sustaining salt marshes in an uncertain future of sea-level rise, other climate factors, and stressors associated with a developing coastal zone.     

Patterns of sediment accumulation in the tidal marshes of Maine

One year’s measurements of surficial sedimentation rates (1986–1987) for 26 Maine marsh sites were made over marker horizons of brick dust. Observed sediment accumulation rates, from 0 to 13 mm yr^?1, were compared with marsh morphology, local relative sea-level rise rate, mean tidal range, and ice rafting activity. Marshes with four different morphologies (back-barrier, fluvial, bluff-toe, and transitional) showed distinctly different sediment accumulation rates. In general, back-barrier marshes had the highest accumulation rates and blufftoe marshes had the lowest rates, with intermediate values for transitional and fluvial marshes. No causal relationship between modern marsh sediment accumulation rate and relative sea-level rise rate (from tide gauge records) was observed. Marsh accretionary balance (sediment accumulation rate minus relative sea-level rise rate) did not correlate with mean tidal range for this meso- to macro-tidal area. Estimates of ice-rafted debris on marsh sites ranged from 0% to >100% of measured surficial sedimentation rates, indicating that ice transport of sediment may make a significant contribution to surficial sedimentation on Maine salt marshes.     

Wave Attenuation at a Salt Marsh Margin: A Case Study of an Exposed Coast on the Yangtze Estuary

To quantify wave attenuation by (introduced) Spartina alterniflora vegetation at an exposed macrotidal coast in the Yangtze Estuary, China, wave parameters and water depth were measured during 13 consecutive tides at nine locations ranging from 10 m seaward to 50 m landward of the low marsh edge. During this period, the incident wave height ranged from <0.1 to 1.5 m, the maximum of which is much higher than observed in other marsh areas around the world. Our measurements and calculations showed that the wave attenuation rate per unit distance was 1 to 2 magnitudes higher over the marsh than over an adjacent mudflat. Although the elevation gradient of the marsh margin was significantly higher than that of the adjacent mudflat, more than 80% of wave attenuation was ascribed to the presence of vegetation, suggesting that shoaling effects were of minor importance. On average, waves reaching the marsh were eliminated over a distance of ∼80 m, although a marsh distance of ≥100 m was needed before the maximum height waves were fully attenuated during high tides. These attenuation distances were longer than those previously found in American salt marshes, mainly due to the macrotidal and exposed conditions at the present site. The ratio of water depth to plant height showed an inverse correlation with wave attenuation rate, indicating that plant height is a crucial factor determining the efficiency of wave attenuation. Consequently, the tall shoots of the introduced S. alterniflora makes this species much more efficient at attenuating waves than the shorter, native pioneer species in the Yangtze Estuary, and should therefore be considered as a factor in coastal management during the present era of sea-level rise and global change. We also found that wave attenuation across the salt marsh can be predicted using published models when a suitable coefficient is incorporated to account for drag, which varies in place and time due to differences in plant characteristics and abiotic conditions (i.e., bed gradient, initial water depth, and wave action).     

Wetland Loss Patterns and Inundation-Productivity Relationships Prognosticate Widespread Salt Marsh Loss for Southern New England

Tidal salt marsh is a key defense against, yet is especially vulnerable to, the effects of accelerated sea level rise. To determine whether salt marshes in southern New England will be stable given increasing inundation over the coming decades, we examined current loss patterns, inundation-productivity feedbacks, and sustaining processes. A multi-decadal analysis of salt marsh aerial extent using historic imagery and maps revealed that salt marsh vegetation loss is both widespread and accelerating, with vegetation loss rates over the past four decades summing to 17.3 %. Landward retreat of the marsh edge, widening and headward expansion of tidal channel networks, loss of marsh islands, and the development and enlargement of interior depressions found on the marsh platform contributed to vegetation loss. Inundation due to sea level rise is strongly suggested as a primary driver: vegetation loss rates were significantly negatively correlated with marsh elevation (r ²?=?0.96; p?=?0.0038), with marshes situated below mean high water (MHW) experiencing greater declines than marshes sitting well above MHW. Growth experiments with Spartina alterniflora, the Atlantic salt marsh ecosystem dominant, across a range of elevations and inundation regimes further established that greater inundation decreases belowground biomass production of S. alterniflora and, thus, negatively impacts organic matter accumulation. These results suggest that southern New England salt marshes are already experiencing deterioration and fragmentation in response to sea level rise and may not be stable as tidal flooding increases in the future.     

Understanding the Impacts of Climate Change: an Analysis of Inundation,Marsh Elevation,and Plant Communities in a Tidal Freshwater Marsh

Tidal freshwater marshes around the world face an uncertain future with increasing water levels, salinity intrusion, and temperature and precipitation shifts associated with climate change. Due to the characteristic abundance of both annual and perennial species in these habitats, even small increases in early growing season water levels may reduce seed germination, seedling establishment, and late-season plant cover, decreasing overall species abundance and productivity. This study looks at the distribution of tidal freshwater marsh plant species at Jug Bay, Patuxent River (Chesapeake Bay, USA), with respect to intertidal elevation, and the relationship between inundation early in the growing season and peak plant cover to better understand the potential impacts and marsh responses to increased inundation. Results show that 62% of marsh plant species are distributed at elevations around mean high water and are characterized by narrow elevation ranges in contrast with species growing at lower elevations. In addition, the frequency and duration of inundation and water depth to which the marsh was exposed to, prior to the growing season (March 15–May 15), negatively affected peak plant cover (measured in end-June to mid-July) after a threshold value was reached. For example, 36 and 55% decreases in peak plant cover were observed after duration of inundation threshold values of 25 and 36% was reached for annual and perennial species, respectively. Overall, this study suggests that plant communities of tidal freshwater marshes are sensitive to even small systematic changes in inundation, which may affect species abundance and richness as well as overall wetland resiliency to climate change.     

Tidal Marsh Restoration Design Affects Feedbacks Between Inundation and Elevation Change

Tidal marsh (re)creation on formerly embanked land is increasingly executed along estuaries and coasts in Europe and the USA, either by restoring complete or by reduced tidal exchange. Ecosystem functioning and services are largely affected by the hydro-geomorphologic development of these areas. For natural marshes, the latter is known to be steered by feedbacks between tidal inundation and sediment accretion, allowing marshes to reach and maintain an equilibrium elevation relative to the mean sea level. However, for marsh restoration sites, these feedbacks may be disturbed depending on the restoration design. This was investigated by comparing the inundation-elevation change feedbacks in a natural versus restoration site with reduced tidal exchange in the Scheldt estuary (Belgium). This study analyzes long-term (9 years) datasets on elevation change and tidal inundation properties to disentangle the different mechanisms behind this elevation-inundation feedback. Moreover, subsequent changes in sediment properties that may affect this feedback were explored. In the restoration area with reduced tidal exchange, we found a different elevation-inundation feedback than on natural marshes, which is a positive feedback on initially high sites (i.e., sediment accretion leads to increasing inundation, hence causing accelerating sediment accretion rates) and a gradual silting up of the whole area. Furthermore, there is evidence for the presence of a relict consolidated sediment layer. Consequently, shallow subsidence is less likely to occur. Although short-term ecological development of the tidal marsh was not impeded, long-term habitat development may be affected by the differences in hydro-geomorphological interactions. An increase of inundation frequency on the initially high sites may cause inhibition of habitat succession or even reversed succession. Over time, the climax state of the restoration area may be different compared to natural marshes. Moreover, sediment-related ecosystem services, such as nutrient and carbon burial, may be positively influenced because of continuing sedimentation, although flood water storage potential will decrease with increasing elevation. Depending on the restoration goals, ecosystem trajectories and delivery of ecosystem services can be controlled by adaptive management of the tidal volume entering the restoration area.     

Response scenarios for the deltaic plain of the Rhône in the face of an acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise with special attention to<Emphasis Type="Italic">Salicornia</Emphasis>-type environments

One of the most critical problems facing many deltaic wetlands is a high rate of relative sea-level rise due to a combination of eustatic sea-level rise and local subsidence. Within the Rhône delta, the main source of mineral input to soil formation is from the river, due to the low tidal range and the presence of a continuous sea wall. We carried out field and modeling studies to assess the present environmental status and future conditions of the more stressed sites, i.e.,Salicornia-type marshes with a shallow, hypersaline groundwater. The impacts of management practices are considered by comparing impounded areas with riverine areas connected to the Rhône River. Analysis of vegetation transects showed differences between mean soil elevation ofArthrocnemum fruticosum (+31.2 cm),Arthrocnemum glaucum (+26.5 cm), bare soil (+16.2 cm), and permanently flooded soil (?12.4 cm). Aboveground and belowground production showed that root:shoot ratio forA. fruticosum andA. glaucum was 2.9 and 1.1, respectively, indicating more stressful environmental conditions forA. glaucum with a higher soil salinity and lack of soil drainage. The annual leaf litter production rate of the two species is 30 times higher than annual stem litter production, but with a higher long-term decomposition rate associated with leaves. We developed a wetland elevation model designed to predict the effect of increasing rates of sea-level rise on wetland elevation andSalicornia production. The model takes into account feedback mechanisms between soil elevation and river mineral input, and primary production. In marshes still connected to the river, mineral input decreased quickly when elevation was over 21 cm. Under current sea-level rise conditions, the annual amount of riverine mineral input needed to maintain the elevation of the study marshes is between 3,000 and 5,000 g m^?2 yr^?1. Simulations showed that under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change best estimate sea-level rise scenario, a mineral input of 6,040 g m^?2 yr^?1 is needed to maintain marsh elevation. The medium term response capacity of the Rhône deltaic plain with rising sea level depends mainly on the possibility of supplying sediment from the river to the delta, even though the Rhône Delta front is wave dominated. Within coastal impounded marshes, isolated from the river, the sediment supply is very low (10 to 50 g m^?2 yr^?1), and an increase of sea-level rise would increase the flooding duration and dramatically reduce vegetation biomass. New wetland management options involving river input are discussed for a long-term sustainability of low coastal Mediterranean wetlands.     

A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge,sea-level rise,and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico

The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks are exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea-level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea-level rise in the northern Gulf coast. The unstructured-grid finite-volume coastal ocean model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the GoM. Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase lines for semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan, and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea-level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a “change of inundation depth” parameter through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea-level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea-level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea-level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.     

Accretion rates and sediment accumulation in Rhode Island salt marshes

In order to test the assumption that accretion rates of intertidal salt marshes are approximately equal to rates of sea-level rise along the Rhode Island coast,²¹⁰Pb analyses were carried out and accretion rates calculated using constant flux and constant activity models applied to sediment cores collected from lowSpartina alterniflora marshes at four sites from the head to the mouth of Narragansett Bay. A core was also collected from a highSpartina patens marsh at one site. Additional low marsh cores from a tidal river entering the bay and a coastal lagoon on Block Island Sound were also analyzed. Accretion rates for all cores were also calculated from copper concentration data assuming that anthropogenic copper increases began at all sites between 1865 and 1885. Bulk density and weight-loss-on-ignition of the sediments were measured in order to assess the relative importance of inorganic and organic accumulation. During the past 60 yr, accretion rates at the eight low marsh sites averaged 0.43±0.13 cm yr^?1 (0.25 to 0.60 cm yr^?1) based on the constant flux model, 0.40±0.15 cm yr^?1 (0.15 to 0.58 cm yr^?1) based on the constant activity model, and 0.44±0.11 cm yr^?1 (0.30 to 0.59 cm yr^?1) based on copper concentration data, with no apparent trend down-bay. High marsh rates were 0.24±0.02 (constant flux), 0.25±0.01 (constant activity), and 0.47±0.04 (copper concentration data). The cores showing closest agreement between the three methods are those for which the excess²¹⁰Pb inventories are consistent with atmospheric inputs. These rates compare to a tide gauge record from the mouth of the bay that shows an average sea-level rise of 0.26±0.02 cm yr^?1 from 1931 to 1986. Low marshes in this area appear to accrete at rates 1.5–1.7 times greater than local relative sea-level rise, while the high marsh accretion rate is equal to the rise in sea level. The variability among the low marsh sites suggests that marshes may not be poised at mean water level to within better than ±several cm on time scales of decades. Inorganic and organic dry solids each contributed about 9% by volume to low marsh accretion, while organic dry solids contributed 11% and inorganic 4% to high marsh accretion. Water/pore space accounted for the majority of accretion in both low and high marshes. If water associated with the organic component is considered, organic matter accounts for an average of 91% of low marsh and 96% of high marsh accretion. A dramatic increase in the organic content at a depth of 60 to 90 cm in the cores from Narragansett Bay appears to mark the start of marsh development on prograding sand flats.     

Recent estuarine sedimentation rates from shallow inter-tidal environments in western Scotland: implications for future sea-level trends and coastal wetland development

During the mid-late Holocene large sections of the Scottish coastline have been characterized by falling relative sea-levels resulting from differential glacio-isostatic uplift of this region of northern Britain. The complex interplay between crustal and sea-level movements continues to influence the morphological development of the Scottish coast. A number of geophysical models predict ongoing uplift of the Scottish landmass. However, a number of recent studies based upon the analysis of satellite altimetry data indicate a late 20th Century acceleration in the rate of eustatic sea-level rise.Detailed geochemistry, radiometric dating, and diatom analysis on selected sediment cores from four mature coastal marsh environments in Argyll, western Scotland, provides an opportunity to investigate the linkages between Twentieth century crustal movements, eustatic sea-level rise and recent rates of sedimentation recorded within marsh sediments across the proposed Scottish glacio-isostatic uplift dome.Solid-phase major and trace element geochemistry has been used to examine the extent to which post-depositional physical disturbance and/or chemical reactions may have influenced the reliability of the radiometric dating methods. Geochemical data indicate that the evolution of these marsh environments has not been significantly influenced by physical disturbance and overall the supply of minerogenic material to the marshes has been quite uniform.Vertical distributions of ²¹⁰Pb_excess and ¹³⁷Cs activity have been measured and used to develop models of recent marsh vertical accretion. Dating of the cores reveals subtle variations in the rates of sediment accumulation over the last c. 70 years between sites. For much of the last hundred years or so, sedimentation rates have been in good overall agreement with various estimations for sea-level rise, although at the more easterly sites these estimates are generally exceeded. However, quasi-equilibrium between marsh sedimentation and sea-level rise for much of the Twentieth Century is indicated from the Diatom analysis.Over the most recent period of marsh development (<10 years), a significant increase in the rate of surface sedimentation is recorded at all sites across the study area. Diatom analysis of these surface layers reveals an increase in the relative abundance of marine (polyhalobous) taxa in the near-surface sediments. This signifies a very recent increase in the rate of regional relative sea-level rise indicating that a regional threshold in coastal forcing has now been exceeded.These findings provide clear evidence that recent relative sea-level rise is now outpacing estimated rates of glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) across the proposed Scottish uplift dome.     

Effects of sea level induced disturbances on high salt marsh metabolism

Salt marshes, which provide a transition between the marine and terrestrial environments around much of the temperature world, will be the first ecosystem to feel the effects of an increased rate of sea level rise. This study examined the metabolic responses of a high salt marsh to increased inundation and wrack deposition associated with sea level rise. We measured changes in ecosystem and soil photosynthesis and respiration by analyzing carbon dioxide fluxes in the light and dark. Data from seasonal flux measurements were combined with continuously measured light and temperature data to develop a model that estimated annual production and respiration. Results suggested that increased inundation will reduce respiration rates to a greater extent than production, yielding a moderate net loss of organic carbon from the high marsh. The model also predicted a substantial loss of organic carbon from wrack-affected areas. This decreased organic carbon input may play an important role in the ability of the marsh to maintain elevation relative to sea level rise.     

Relative sea-level change inferred from intertidal sediments beneath marshes on Vancouver Island, British Columbia

Relative sea-level change at the time of, and since, the most recent great earthquake at the Cascadia subduction zone is estimated from intertidal sediments at three marshes on western Vancouver Island, British Columbia. We compare the elevation of the pre-earthquake surface, which is marked by a tsunami sand sheet, with the modern depositional elevation range of the sediment type upon which the sand was deposited. At a site south of the Nootka fault zone, which is the northern boundary of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate, tidal mud overlies the pre-earthquake marsh surface. The stratigraphy at this site indicates 0.2–1.6 m of coseismic submergence and 1.1 m of subsequent emergence. In contrast, two sites to the north lack obvious stratigraphic evidence for coseismic land-level change and record between 0.1 and 1.7 m of post-earthquake submergence. These results indicate a difference in tectonic environment across the Nootka fault zone and suggest that plate-boundary rupture during the last great Cascadia earthquake probably did not extend north of central Vancouver Island.     

Contrasting Decadal-Scale Changes in Elevation and Vegetation in Two Long Island Sound Salt Marshes

Northeastern US salt marshes face multiple co-stressors, including accelerating rates of relative sea level rise (RSLR), elevated nutrient inputs, and low sediment supplies. In order to evaluate how marsh surface elevations respond to such factors, we used surface elevation tables (SETs) and surface elevation pins to measure changes in marsh surface elevation in two eastern Long Island Sound salt marshes, Barn Island and Mamacoke marshes. We compare marsh elevation change at these two systems with recent rates of RSLR and find evidence of differences between the two sites; Barn Island is maintaining its historic rate of elevation gain (2.3?±?0.24 mm year^?1 from 2003 to 2013) and is no longer keeping pace with RSLR, while Mamacoke shows evidence of a recent increase in rates (4.2?±?0.52 mm year^?1 from 1994 to 2014) to maintain its elevation relative to sea level. In addition to data on short-term elevation responses at these marshes, both sites have unusually long and detailed data on historic vegetation species composition extending back more than half a century. Over this study period, vegetation patterns track elevation change relative to sea levels, with the Barn Island plant community shifting towards those plants that are found at lower elevations and the Mamacoke vegetation patterns showing little change in plant composition. We hypothesize that the apparent contrasting trend in marsh elevation at the sites is due to differences in sediment availability, salinity, and elevation capital. Together, these two systems provide critical insight into the relationships between marsh elevation, high marsh plant community, and changing hydroperiods. Our results highlight that not all marshes in Southern New England may be responding to accelerated rates of RSLR in the same manner.     

Some applications of paleoecology to the management of tidal marshes

The shallow-water habitat is under increasing environmental pressures from accelerated sea-level rise and continual urban sprawl and will require well-informed management decisions to maintain its health into the future. One of the keys to the effective management of the shallow-water habitat is understanding the processes responsible for its development. Paleoecology has the potential to provide much insight into the development of the system, particularly when the impacts of accelerated sea-level rise on vegetation and sedimentation dynamics in tidal marshes is being considered. For example, a paleoecological comparison of tidal salt marshes to tidal freshwater marshes shows that rates of development will dictate the system's response to accelerated sea-level rise, with tidal freshwater marshes capable of transgressing landward more rapidly than their saline counterparts. Such information implies that management of the adjacent uplands is as important to the future of the system as management of the marsh itself. Therefore, it is important to consult paleoecological research when management strategies are being considered. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A01BY074 00010     

Late Holocene Marsh Expansion in Southern San Francisco Bay, California

Currently, the largest tidal wetlands restoration project on the US Pacific Coast is being planned and implemented in southern San Francisco Bay; however, knowledge of baseline conditions of salt marsh extent in the region prior to European settlement is limited. Here, analysis of 24 sediment cores collected from ten intact southern San Francisco Bay tidal marshes were used to reconstruct spatio-temporal patterns of marsh expansion to provide historic context for current restoration efforts. A process-based marsh elevation simulation model was used to identify interactions between sediment supply, sea-level rise, and marsh formation rates. A distinct age gradient was found: expansion of marshes in the central portion of southern San Francisco Bay dated to 500 to 1500 calendar years before present, while expansion of marshes in southernmost San Francisco Bay dated to 200 to 700 calendar years before present. Thus, much of the tidal marsh area mapped by US Coast Survey during the 1853–1857 period were in fact not primeval tidal marshes that had persisted for millennia but were recently formed landscapes. Marsh expansion increased during the Little Ice Age, when freshwater inflow and sediment influx were higher than during the previous millennium, and also during settlement, when land use changes, such as introduction of livestock, increased watershed erosion, and sediment delivery.     

Submergence and Herbivory as Divergent Causes of Marsh Loss in Long Island Sound

Tidal marsh degradation has been attributed to a number of different causes, but few studies have examined multiple potential factors at the same sites. Differentiating the diverse drivers of marsh loss is critical to prescribing successful interventions for conservation and restoration of this important habitat. We evaluated two hypotheses for vegetation loss at two marshes in Long Island Sound (LIS): (1) marsh submergence, caused by an imbalance between sea-level rise and marsh accretion, and (2) defoliation associated with herbivory by the purple marsh crab, Sesarma reticulatum. At our western LIS site, we found no evidence of herbivory: crabs were scarce, and crab-exclusion cages provided no benefit. We attribute degradation at that site to submergence, a conclusion supported by topographic and hydrologic data showing that loss of vegetation occurred only in wetter parts of the marsh. In contrast, at our central LIS site, our observations were consistent with herbivory as a driving force: There were substantial populations of Sesarma, crab-exclusion cages allowed plants to thrive, and vegetation loss took place across a variety of elevations. We also analyzed soil conditions at both sites, in order to determine the signatures of different degradation processes and assess the potential for restoration. At the submergence site, unvegetated soils exhibited high bulk density, low organic content, and low soil strength, posing significant biogeochemical challenges to re-colonization by vegetation. At the herbivory site, unvegetated soils had a characteristic “riddled-peat” appearance, resulting from expansion and erosion of Sesarma burrow networks. The high redox potential and organic content of those soils suggested that revegetation at the herbivory site would be likely if Sesarma populations could be controlled before erosion leads to elevation loss.