Interannual variability of tropical cyclone activity along the Pacific coast of North America

The interannual variability of near-coastal eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones is described using a data set of cyclone tracks constructed from U.S. and Mexican oceanic and atmospheric reports for the period 1951-2006. Near-coastal cyclone counts are enumerated monthly, allowing us to distinguish interannual variability during different phases of the May-November tropical cyclone season. In these data more tropical cyclones affect the Pacific coast in May-July, the early months of the tropical cyclone season, during La Niña years, when equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures are anomalously cool, than during El Niño years. The difference in early season cyclone counts between La Niña and El Niño years was particularly pronounced during the mid-twentieth century epoch when cool equatorial temperatures were enhanced as described by an index of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Composite maps from years with high and low near-coastal cyclone counts show that the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with cool sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific are consistent with preferential steering of tropical cyclones northeastward toward the west coast of Mexico.     

Comparison of 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 El Niño effects on the shallow-water fish assemblage of the Patos Lagoon estuary (Brazil)

Meteorological impacts of El Niño events of 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 were observed in locations throughout the world. In southern Brazil, El Niño events are associated with increased rainfall and higher freshwater discharge into Patos Lagoon, a large coastal lagoon that empties into the Atlantic Ocean. Based on interdecadal meteorological and biological data sets encompassing the two strongest El Niño events of the last 50 yr, we evaluated the hypothesis that El Niño-induced hydrological changes are a major driving force controlling the interannual variation in the structure and dynamics of fishes in the Patos Lagoon estuary. High rainfall in the drainage basin of the lagoon coincided with low salinity in the estuarine area during both El Niño episodes. Total rainfall in the drainage basin was higher (767 versus 711 mm) and near-zero salinity conditions in the estuarine area lasted about 3 mo longer during the 1997–1998 El Niño event compared with the 1982–1983 event. Hydrological changes triggered by both El Niño events had similar relationships to fish species composition and diversity patterns, but the 1997–1998 event appeared to have stronger effects on the species assemblage. Although shifts in species composition were qualitatively similar during the two El Niño events, distance between El Niño and non-El Niño assemblage multivariate centroids was greater during the 1996–2000 sampling period compared with the 1979–1983 period. We provide a conceptual model of the principal mechanisms and processes connecting the atmospheric-oceanographic interactions triggered by the El Niño phenomena and their effect on the estuarine fish assemblage.     

中国沿海登陆热带气旋活动特征分析

热带气旋是危害中国最严重的天气系统,分析和认识中国沿海登陆热带气旋活动的新特征对防灾减灾具有重要意义。依据近70年气象资料,采用统计学方法,对登陆中国沿海的热带气旋特征进行分析,研究发现:在气候变化的背景下,登陆中国的热带气旋发生了明显变化。近年台风登陆频数高于往年平均,其整体强度和最大值均呈增大趋势,年台风强度的不稳定性加剧;研究还发现台风强度越高,其生成地纬度带范围越窄且越靠近赤道;建立了高强度热带气旋（STY和SUPER TY）时间和纬度的关系"φ—m"。检验了台风季长与初旋日呈负相关且不受厄尔尼诺现象影响,台风季长符合正态分布并给出概率密度公式。     

Determing the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events on coastal water quality

The importance of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on regional-scale climate variability is well recognized although the associated effects on local weather patterns are poorly understood. Little work has addressed the ancillary impacts of climate variability at the community level, which require analysis at a local scale. In coastal communities water quality and public health effects are of particular interest. Here we describe the historical influence of ENSO events on coastal water quality in Tampa Bay, Florida (USA) as a test case. Using approximate randomized statistics, we show significant ENSO influences on water quality particularly during winter months, with significantly greater fecal pollution levels during strong El Niño winters and significantly lower levels during strong La Niña winters as compared to neutral conditions. Similar significant patterns were also noted for El Niño and La Niña fall periods. The success of the analysis demonstrates the feasibility of assessing local effects associated with large-scale climate variability. It also highlights the possibility of using ENSO forecasts to predict periods of poor coastal water quality in urban region which local agencies may use to make appropriate prepations.     

Characteristics of tropical cyclones making landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico: 1970-2010

This study evaluates impacts from tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls on populated areas located along the Pacific Ocean coast of Mexico. The period of interest is from 1970 through 2010 and an international disaster database is used to identify the impact from the landfalling TCs. More than 30 landfall events occurred during the period; we examined the top 25 TCs based on rainfall accumulation, as well as the top 10 TC-related disasters based on the affected population. Each event resulted in affected population from 20 000 to more than 800 000. Strong winds and heavy rainfall, during periods of one to three days, are associated with property damage and loss of lives. Our results indicate that excessive rainfall accumulations and daily rates, over highly populated areas, are important elements associated with the occurrence of disasters. Six of the top 10 TC-related disasters occurred during El Niño and three during neutral conditions; however, looking at the top 25 events, 10 occurred during El Niño and 10 during neutral conditions. Three case studies that occurred during El Niño events (Liza in 1976, Pauline in 1997, and Lane in 2006) are documented in more detail as they affected areas with different population densities in the southern and northwestern coasts of Mexico.     

Barents Sea hydrodynamics change during the El Niño event

On the basis of model calculations, mutually fitted fields were obtained for the key hydrophysical properties in the vicinity of the hydrological sections executed in the Barents Sea during 1997–1998. Integrated analysis of these data allowed us to evaluate the variability of crucial hydrodynamic conditions: the decrease of supply of relatively warm and saline North Atlantic waters with compensatory inflow of Arctic waters; the decrease of total heat content and increase of thermal convection; the weakening of water dynamics in the system of general cyclone circulation; and the abnormally cold winter in 1997–1998 with the increase in the ice covering of the Barents Sea. With a high confidence probability, it was found that considerable deviations from the mean weather conditions took place in response to the El Niño global disturbance of the same period, with the maximum southern oscillation index (SOI) in January–March 1998. The El Niño signal in the baric field of the Arctic basin, noted even in November–December 1997 as a crest of increased pressure, reached its maximum development in April–June 1998 in the form of a well-pronounced atmospheric anticyclone. Recognizing the natural correlation of this phenomenon and the maximum SOI value, one may state that the Barents Sea responds to an El Niño event in about three months. This circumstance should be used as an important parameter for climate forecasting.     

Meteotsunamis in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and their possible link to El Niño Southern Oscillation

Analysis of 20-year time series of water levels in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has revealed that meteotsunamis are ubiquitous in this region. On average, 1–3 meteotsunamis with wave heights >0.5 m occur each year in this area. The probability of meteotsunami occurrence is highest during March–April and June–August. Meteotsunamis in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico can be triggered by winter and summer extra-tropical storms and by tropical cyclones. In northwestern Florida most of the events are triggered by winter storms, while in west and southwest Florida they appear both in winter and summer. Atmospheric pressure and wind anomalies (periods <6 h) associated with the passage of squalls originated the majority of the observed meteotsunami events. The most intense meteotsunamigenic periods took place during El Niño periods (1997–1998, 2009–2010 and 2015–2016). Meteotsunamis were also active in 2005, a year characterized by exceptionally intense tropical cyclone activity. Meteotsunami incidence varied yearly and at periods between 2 and 5 years. Results from cross-wavelet analysis suggested that El Niño and meteotsunami activity are correlated at annual and longer-period bands.     

Late Pleistocene desiccation of Lake Tana,source of the Blue Nile

High-resolution seismic data from Lake Tana, the source of the Blue Nile in northern Ethiopia, reveal a deep sedimentary sequence divided by four strong reflectors. Data from nearshore cores show that the uppermost strong reflector represents a stiff silt unit, interpreted as a desiccation surface. Channel cuts in this surface, bordered by levee-like structures, are apparent in the seismic data from near the lake margin, suggesting fluvial downcutting and over-bank deposition during seasonal flood events. Periphytic diatoms and peat at the base of a core from the deepest part of the lake overlie compacted sediments, indicating that desiccation was followed by development of shallow-water environments and papyrus swamp in the central basin between 16,700 and 15,100 cal BP. As the lake level rose, open-water evaporation from the closed lake caused it to become slightly saline, as indicated by halophytic diatoms. An abrupt return to freshwater conditions occurred at 14,750 cal BP, when the lake overflowed into the Blue Nile. Further reflection surfaces with downcut structures are identifiable in seismic images of the overlying sediments, suggesting at least two lesser lake-level falls, tentatively dated to about 12,000 and 8000 cal BP. Since Lake Victoria, the source of the White Nile, was also dry until 15,000 cal BP, and did not reach overflow until 14,500 cal BP, the entire Nile system must have been reduced to intermittent seasonal flow until about 14,500 cal BP, when baseflow was re-established with almost simultaneous overflow of the headwater lakes of both the White and Blue Nile rivers. Desiccation of the Nile sources coincides with Heinrich event 1, when cessation of northward heat transport from the tropical Atlantic disrupted the Atlantic monsoon, causing drought in north tropical Africa. The strong reflectors at deeper levels in the seismic sequence of Lake Tana may represent earlier desiccation events, possibly contemporaneous with previous Late Pleistocene Heinrich events.     

Rhone River flood deposits in Lake Le Bourget: a proxy for Holocene environmental changes in the NW Alps, France

The Holocene evolution of Rhone River clastic sediment supply in Lake Le Bourget is documented by sub-bottom seismic profiling and multidisciplinary analysis of well-dated sediment cores. Six high-amplitude reflectors within the lacustrine drape can be correlated to periods of enhanced inter- and underflow deposition in sediment cores. Based on the synthesis of major environmental changes in the NW Alps and on the age-depth model covering the past 7500 years in Lake Le Bourget, periods of enhanced Rhone River flood events in the lake can be related to abrupt climate changes and/or to increasing land use since c. 2700 cal. yr BP. For example, significant land use under rather stable climate conditions during the Roman Empire may be responsible for large flood deposits in the northern part of Lake Le Bourget between AD 966 and 1093. However, during the Little Ice Age (LIA), well-documented major environmental changes in the catchment area essentially resulted from climate change and formed basin-wide major flood deposits in Lake Le Bourget. Up to five 'LIA-like' Holocene cold periods developing enhanced Rhone River flooding activity in Lake Le Bourget are documented at c. 7200, 5200, 2800, 1600 and 200 cal. yr BP. These abrupt climate changes were associated in the NW Alps with Mont Blanc glacier advances, enhanced glaciofluvial regimes and high lake levels. Correlations with European lake level fluctuations and winter precipitation regimes inferred from glacier fluctuations in western Norway suggest that these five Holocene cooling events at 45°N were associated with enhanced westerlies, possibly resulting from a persistent negative mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation.     

Growth increment and stable isotope analysis of marine bivalves: Implications for the geoarchaeological record of El Niño

The 1982–1983 El Niño event afforded the opportunity to develop criteria for the recognition of ancient El Niños using mollusks from archaeological sites along coastal South America. A combination of growth increment and stable isotope analyses indicated that elevated sea surface temperatures during large scale El Niños leave a record decodable from the growth patterns of selected bivalve shells. The intertidal venerid Chione subrugosa displayed a pronounced break in the valve margin profile following the 1982-1983 event but provided an inconsistent stable isotope pattern. The subtidal carditid Trachycardium procerum, on the other hand, preserved a discernible and diagnostic growth interruption as well as an expected trend in stable isotope indicators of salinity and temperature change. We conclude that some of the major culturally disruptive El Niño events can be recognized in the geoarchaeological record by these techniques, especially if ancillary information, such as faunal distribution patterns, are also considered. Perhaps the most serious constraint upon application of this approach involves microstratigraphic resolution of shell midden deposits. Stratigraphic sampling of midden material should be accompanied, if possible, by sampling of proximal natural strata. The chances of discovery of major El Niño perturbations in the geoarchaeological record of shell middens is enhanced by the catastrophic nature of such events and by the indication that major El Niños have a high probability of being closely spaced in time.     

Hunter‐gatherer response to late Holocene climatic variability in northern and central Australia

Sum probability analysis of 1275 radiometric ages from 608 archaeological sites across northern and central Australia demonstrates a changing archaeological signature that can be closely correlated with climate variability over the last 2 ka. Results reveal a marked increase in archaeological records across northern and central Australia over the last 2 ka, with notable declines in western and northern Australia between ca. AD 700 and 1000 and post‐AD 1500 – two periods broadly coeval with the Medieval Climatic Anomaly and the Little Ice Age as they have been documented in the Asia–Pacific region. Latitudinal and longitudinal analysis of the dataset suggests the increase in archaeological footprint was continent wide, while the declines were greatest from 9 to 20° S, 110 to 135° E and 143 to 150° E. The change in the archaeological data suggests that, combined with an increase in population over the late Holocene, a disruption or reorganisation of pre‐European resource systems occurred across Australia between ca. AD 700 and 1000 and post‐AD 1500. These archaeological responses can be broadly correlated with transitions of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mean state on a multi‐decadal to centennial timescale. The latter involve a shift towards the La Niña‐like mean state with wetter conditions in the Australian region between AD 700 and 1150. A transition period in ENSO mean state occurred across Australia during AD 1150–1300, with persistent El Niño‐like and drier conditions to ca. AD 1500, and increasing ENSO variability post‐AD 1500 to the present. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic stratigraphy of Waterton Lake, a sediment-starved glaciated basin in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta, Canada and Montana, USA

Upper and Middle Waterton lakes fill a glacially scoured bedrock basin in a large (614 km²) watershed in the eastern Front Ranges of the Rocky Mountains of southern Alberta, Canada and northern Montana, U.S.A. The stratigraphic infill of the lake has been imaged with 123 km of single-channel FM sonar (‘chirp') reflection profiles. Offshore sonar data are combined with more than 2.5 km of multi-channel, land-based seismic reflection profiles collected from a large fan-delta. Three seismic stratigraphic successions (SSS I to III) are identified in Waterton Lake resting on a prominent basal reflector (bedrock) that reaches a maximum depth of about 250 m below lake level. High-standing rock steps (reigels) divide the lake into sub-basins that can be mapped using lake floor reflection coefficients. A lowermost transparent to poorly stratified seismic succession (SSS I, up to 30 m thick) is present locally between bedrock highs and has high seismic velocities (1750–2100 m/s) typical of compact till or outwash. A second stratigraphic succession (SSS II, up to 50 m thick), occurs throughout the lake basin and is characterised by continuous, closely spaced reflectors typical of repetitively bedded and rhythmically laminated silts and clays most likely deposited by underflows from fan-deltas; paleo-depositional surfaces identify likely source areas during deglaciation. Intervals of acoustically transparent seismic facies, up to 5 m thick, are present within SSS II. At the northern end of Upper Waterton Lake, SSS II has a hummocky surface underlain by collapse structures and chaotic facies recording the melt of buried ice. Sediment collapse may have triggered downslope mass flows and may account for massive facies in SSS II. A thin Holocene succession (SSS III, <5 m) shows very closely spaced reflectors identified as rhythmically laminated fine pelagic sediment deposited from interflows and overflows. SSS III contains Mt. Mazama tephra dated at 6850 yr BP.     

Blueprints for Medieval hydroclimate

According to tree ring and other records, a series of severe droughts that lasted for decades afflicted western North America during the Medieval period resulting in a more arid climate than in subsequent centuries. A review of proxy evidence from around the world indicates that North American megadroughts were part of a global pattern of Medieval hydroclimate that was distinct from that of today. In particular, the Medieval hydroclimate was wet in northern South America, dry in mid-latitude South America, dry in eastern Africa but with strong Nile River floods and a strong Indian monsoon. This pattern is similar to that accompanying persistent North American droughts in the instrumental era. This pattern is compared to that associated with familiar climate phenomena. The best fit comes from a persistently La Niña-like tropical Pacific and the warm phase of the so-called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. A positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) also helps to explain the Medieval hydroclimate pattern. Limited sea surface temperature reconstructions support the contention that the tropical Pacific was cold and the subtropical North Atlantic was warm, ideal conditions for North American drought. Tentative modeling results indicate that a multi-century La Niña-like state could have arisen as a coupled atmosphere–ocean response to high irradiance and weak volcanism during the Medieval period and that this could in turn have induced a persistently positive NAO state. A La Niña-like state could also induce a strengthening of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and hence warming of the North Atlantic Ocean, by (i) the ocean response to the positive NAO and by shifting the southern mid-latitude westerlies poleward which (ii) will increase the salt flux from the Indian Ocean into the South Atlantic and (iii) drive stronger Southern Ocean upwelling.     

Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant impact over the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean through Walker circulation. ENSO-induced negative (positive) NAO-like response and associated changes over Southern Europe and North Africa get significantly strong following increased intensity of El Niño (La Niña) in the northern (southern) hemisphere in the boreal winter (summer) season. We further find that ENSO magnitude significantly impacts Hadley and Walker circulations. The positive phase of ENSO (El Niño) overall strengthens Hadley cell and a reverse is true for the La Niña phase. ENSO-induced strengthening and weakening of Hadley cell induces significant impact over South Asian and African ITCZ convective regions through modification of ITCZ/monsoon circulation system.     

Relationships between landscape morphology,climate and surface erosion in northern Peru at 5°S latitude

The northern segment of the Peruvian Andes is affected by a twofold climate with measurable implications on landscapes and landscape dynamics. During ‘normal’ or ‘neutral’ years easterly winds bring rain from the Atlantic and the Amazon Basin to the Sierras, which results in a seasonal climate with rather low-intensity precipitations. In contrast, during the large-scale warm phase of the ENSO cycle, El Niños transfer moisture from the Pacific to the Peruvian coast by westerly winds and result in high-intensity precipitation. We investigate the effects of this twofold climate for the case of the Piura drainage basin at ca. 5°S latitude (northern Peru). In the headwaters that have been under the influence of the easterlies, the landscape is mantled by a thick regolith cover and dissected by a network of debris flow channels that are mostly covered by a thick layer of unconsolidated sediment. This implies that in the headwaters of the Piura River sediment discharge has been limited by the transport capacity of the sediment transfer system. In the lower segment that has been affected by high-intensity rainfall in relation to the westerlies (El Niños), the hillslopes are dissected by debris flow channels that expose the bedrock on the channel floor, implying a supply-limited sediment discharge. Interestingly, measurements at the Piura gauging station near the coast reveal that, during the last decades, sediment was transferred to the lower reaches only in response to the 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 El Niño periods. For the latter period, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) intensity images show that the locations of substantial erosion are mainly located in areas that were affected by higher-than-average precipitation rates. Most important, these locations are coupled with the network of debris flow channels. This implies that the seasonal easterlies are responsible for the production of sediment through weathering in the headwaters, and the highly episodic El Niños result in export of sediment through channelized sediment transport down to the coastal segment. Both systems overlap showing a partially coupled sediment production–delivery system.     

About the variability in thunderstorm and rainfall activity over India and its association with El Niño and La Niña

Thunderstorms are of much importance in tropics, as this region is considered to have central role in the convective overturn of the atmosphere and play an important role in rainfall activity. It is well known that El Niño and La Niña are well associated with significant climate anomalies at many places around the globe. Therefore, an attempt is made in this study to analyze variability in thunderstorm days and rainfall activity over Indian region and its association with El Niño and La Niña using data of thunderstorm day’s for 64 stations well distributed all over India for the period 1981–2005 (25 years). It is seen that thunderstorm activity is higher and much variable during pre-monsoon (MAM) and southwest monsoon (JJAS) than the rest of the year. Positive correlation coefficients (CCs) are seen between thunderstorms and rainfall except for the month of June during which the onset of the southwest monsoon sets over the country. CCs during winter months are highly correlated. Composite anomalies in thunderstorms during El Niño and La Niña years suggest that ENSO conditions altered the patterns of thunderstorm activity over the country. Positive anomalies are seen during pre-monsoon (MAM) and southwest monsoon months (JAS) during La Niña years. Opposite features are seen in southwest monsoon during El Niño periods, but El Niño favors thunderstorm activity during pre-monsoon months. There is a clear contrast between the role of ENSO during southwest monsoon and post-monsoon on thunderstorm activity over the country. Time series of thunderstorms and precipitation show strong association with similarities in their year-to-year variation over the country.     

Palaeoproductivity evolution in the centre of the western Pacific warm pool during the last 250 ka

To reconstruct the palaeoproductivity evolution history of the centre of the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) over the last 250 ka, multi‐proxies were analysed in sediment core WP7 recovered from the Ontong–Java Plateau. Palaeoproductivity evolution at the centre of the WPWP during the last 250 ka is closely related to glacial–interglacial cycles and the insolation controlled by precession. The glacial higher primary productivity relative to the interglacial conditions could have resulted from both thermocline shoaling associated with persistent El Niňo‐like conditions and the increased influx of dust resulting from intensified winter monsoon together with important changes in the thermocline. The minimum primary productivity values during the last three terminations could be resulted from deglacial thermocline deepening and intensified stratification associated with persistent La Niña‐like conditions, and the concurrent Neogloboquadrina dutertrei δ¹³C minimum events probably reflect the chemical signatures of Subantarctic Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water. In addition, primary productivity values are also controlled by the thermocline variations resulting from El Niño/La Niña‐Southern Oscillation processes responding to precession forcing, and lead the δ¹⁸O by about 4 ka. The 33.1 ka, 19 ka and “half‐precession” periods are prominent in the palaeoproductivity records. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mid-holocene climate change in Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana

Lake Bosumtwi is one of the most widely studied palaeoclimate archives in West Africa. Results from numerous AMS ¹⁴C dates of samples from four piston cores from Lake Bosumtwi show that an abrupt sedimentary transition from a mid-Holocene sapropel to calcareous laminated muds occurred at about 3200 cal yr B.P. High-resolution analyses of the nitrogen isotopic composition of organic matter across this transition confirm its abrupt nature, and suggest that the change may signal a step toward increased aridity and intensified surface winds that affected western equatorial Africa from Ghana to the Congo basin. Northern and Eastern Africa experienced a similar abrupt shift toward aridity during the late Holocene, but at about 5000 cal yr B.P., a difference in timing that illustrates the regional nature of climate changes during the Holocene and the importance of feedback mechanisms in regulating Holocene climate variability. Furthermore, an abrupt change at about 3000 cal yr B.P. occurs at several sites adjacent to the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, which may hint at major changes in the surface temperatures of the tropical Atlantic and/or Pacific at this time.     

Short- and Long-Term Vegetative Propagation of Two <Emphasis Type="Italic">Spartina</Emphasis> Species on a Salt Marsh in Southern Brazil

Spartina alterniflora and Spartina densiflora are native salt marsh plants from the Atlantic coast; their habitats in Patos Lagoon estuary (southern Brazil) are characterized by a microtidal regime (<0.5 m) and, during El Niño events, high estuarine water levels and prolonged flooding due to elevated freshwater discharge from a 200,000-km² watershed. During and between El Niño events, the vegetative propagation of these two Spartina species in the largest estuary of southern Brazil (Patos Lagoon) was evaluated by monitoring transplanted plants for 10 years (short-term study) and interpreting aerial photos of natural stands for 56 years (long-term study). During the short-term study, S. alterniflora quickly occupied mud flats (up to 208 cm year^?1) by elongation of rhizomes, whereas S. densiflora showed a modest lateral spread (up to 13 cm year^?1) and generated dense circular-shaped stands. However, moderate and strong El Niño events can promote excessive flooding and positive anomalies in the estuarine water level that reduce the lateral spread and competitive ability of S. densiflora. During the long-term study, natural stands of S. alterniflora and S. densiflora had steady lateral spread rates of 152 and 5.2 cm year^?1, respectively, over mud flats. In the microtidal marshes of the southwest Atlantic, the continuous long-term lateral expansion of both Spartina species embodies periods of intense flooding stress (moderate and strong El Niños), when there is a decrease of vegetative propagation and less stressful low water periods of fast spread over mud flats (non-El Niño periods and weak intensity El Niños).     

Daily precipitation distributions over the intra-Americas sea and their interannual variability

The seasonal (March to October) and interannual variability of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of precipitation is examined for Meso-America, the eastern Pacific and western Atlantic, commonly referred to as the intra-Americas sea (IAS). Large-area precipitation CDFs were constructed over land and temperature pools greater than 28.5° C and between 26.5° and 28.5° C. The cooler waters tend to have their precipitation distributions shifted to lower values as compared to land and the western hemisphere warm pool (WHWP). The land and the WHWP have similar precipitation distributions from March to May. From June to October the land histogram of precipitation is narrower (less light and heavy rainfall) relative to the WHWP histogram. The highest probability of finding heavy to extreme precipitation over the WHWP is in June. From 1997 to 2008, in the summer months, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is related to the CDFs of precipitation over land, where during El Niño there is a shift toward lower daily rain totals. There is not a strong relationship between ENSO and the CDFs of precipitation over the ocean pools. Finally, a large WHWP in May-June-July is related to the CDF of precipitation over the WHWP in October, namely a shift towards higher daily rain totals and more extreme events. The size of the July WHWP explains 75% of the variability in the frequency of rainfall greater than 50 mm within the WHWP in October, and the root mean square error between the observed points and the linear models is about 0.005. However, the reason for this apparent predictability is not simply due to a warm seasonal anomaly leading to local thermodynamic effects. The concurrent correlation between the size of the WHWP in October and the CDF of precipitation therein is small, indicating a lack of a contemporaneous response. Here it is shown through atmospheric-oceanic reanalysis that rainfall extremes in October are dependent upon the development of the Atlantic portion of the WHWP in May-June-July. Large WHWPs in these months are consistent with an early onset of the Atlantic warm pool and atmospheric instability over Central America leading to extreme precipitation events in the fall.