The size and frequency of the largest explosive eruptions on Earth

A compilation and analysis of the size and frequency of the largest known explosive eruptions on Earth are presented. The largest explosive events are defined to be those eruptions yielding greater than 10¹⁵ kg of products (>150 times the mass of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo). This includes all known eruptions with a volcanic explosivity index (VEI) of 8. A total of 47 such events, ranging in age from Ordovician to Pleistocene, are identified, of which 42 eruptions are known from the past 36 Ma. A logarithmic magnitude scale of eruption size is applied, based on erupted mass, to these events. On this scale, 46 eruptions >10¹⁵ kg are defined to be of magnitude M8. There is one M9 event known so far, the Fish Canyon Tuff, with an erupted mass of >10¹⁶ kg and a magnitude of 9.2. Analysis of this dataset indicates that eruptions of size M8 and larger have occurred with a minimum frequency of 1.4 events/Ma in two pulses over the past 36 Ma. On the basis of the activity during the past 13.5 Ma, there is at least a 75% probability of a M8 eruption (>10¹⁵ kg) occurring within the next 1 Ma. There is a 1% chance of an eruption of this scale in the next 460–7,200 years. While the effect of any individual M8 or larger eruption is considerable, the time-averaged impact (i.e., erupted mass×frequency) of the very largest eruptions is small, due to their rarity. The long-term, time-averaged erupted mass flux from magnitude 8 and 9 eruptions is ~10–100 times less than for M7 eruptions; the time-averaged mass eruption rate from M7 eruptions is 9,500 kg s^–1, whereas for M8 and M9 eruptions it is ~70–1,000 kg s^–1. Comparison of the energy release by volcanic eruptions with that due to asteroid impacts suggests that on timescales of <100,000 years, explosive volcanic eruptions are considerably more frequent than impacts of similar energy yield. This has important implications for understanding the risk of extreme events.Editorial responsibility: R. Cioni     

安徽考古现场自然变形遗迹的发现及其意义

我国东部人口稠密,气候湿润,物理化学作用强烈,人类活动频繁,构造新活动遗迹难以保存,所以长期以来相应地区第四纪,尤其是晚第四纪以来活动性评价一直存在难点.     

Atmospheric carbon dioxide and the long-term control of the Earth’s climate

A CO₂-weathering model has been used to explore the possible evolution of the Earth’s climate as the Sun steadily brightened throughout geologic time. The results of the model calculations can be described in terms of three, qualitatively different, “Megaclimates”. Mega-climate 1 resulted from a period of rapid outgassing in the early Archean, with high, but declining, temperatures caused by the small weathering rates on a largely water-covered planet. Mega-climate 2 began about 3 Gyear ago as major continental land masses developed, increasing the weathering rate in the early Proterozoic and thereby depleting the atmospheric CO₂ concentration. This process produced the first Precambrian glaciations about 2.3 Gyear ago. During Mega-climate 2, evolutionary biological processes increased the surface weatherability in incremental steps and plate tectonics modulated the CO₂ outgassing rate with an estimated period of 150 Myear (approximately one-half the period for the formation and breakup of super continents). Throughout Mega-climate 2 the surface temperature was controlled by variations in the atmospheric CO₂ level allowing transitions between glacial and non-glacial conditions. The results of the model for Mega-climate 2 are in agreement with the occurrence (and absence) of glaciations in the geologic record. Extending the model to the future suggests that CO₂ control of the Earth’s temperature will no longer be able to compensate for a solar flux that continues to increase. The present level of atmospheric CO₂ is so small that further reduction in CO₂ cannot prevent the Earth from experiencing Mega-climate 3 with steadily increasing surface temperatures caused by the continued brightening of the Sun. During Mega-climate 3, the main danger to the biosphere would come not from an increasing temperature but from a decreasing (rather than an increasing) CO₂ level which could, in time, fall below 0.5 PAL, causing serious damage to the biosphere. Fortunately, the rates of change due to solar brightening are slow enough that Mega-climate 3 appears to pose no threat to the biosphere for the next 0.5-2 Gyear.     

对汶川地震余震序列中最大余震事件的讨论

本文针对2008年5月12日四川汶川M_W7.9地震后的余震目录,采用2004年Shcherbakov和Turcotte提出的最大余震震级推断法,给出了最大余震震级的估计值。结果表明,采用现有的余震数据,在大震级区间可能存在一定数量的余震缺失,这造成了余震数据与Gutenberg-Richter定律曲线在大震级区间的差异,导致推断的最大余震震级与使用目录中的最大余震震级存在明显差异。利用震级与断层长度或地表破裂长度之间的经验关系可以看出,由灌县—江油断裂的破裂尺度得到的震级与推断最大余震震级基本一致。根据前人给出的断层摩擦失稳时间模型和Brune近断层质点运动模型,本文进一步探讨了汶川地震北川—映秀断裂对灌县—江油断裂的触发作用,认为北川—映秀断裂破裂所辐射出的S波可以在短时间内使得灌县—江油断裂发生失稳,进而产生宏观破裂并形成地震,因此由灌县—江油断裂破裂形成的地震可能为汶川地震的最大余震。      

A natural tracer investigation of the hydrological regime of Spring Creek Springs, the largest submarine spring system in Florida

This work presents results from a nearly two-year monitoring of the hydrologic dynamics of the largest submarine spring system in Florida, Spring Creek Springs. During the summer of 2007 this spring system was observed to have significantly reduced flow due to persistent drought conditions. Our examination of the springs revealed that the salinity of the springs' waters had increased significantly, from 4 in 2004 to 33 in July 2007 with anomalous high radon (²²²Rn, t_1/2=3.8 days) in surface water concentrations indicating substantial saltwater intrusion into the local aquifer. During our investigation from August 2007 to May 2009 we deployed on an almost monthly basis a continuous radon-in-water measurement system and monitored the salinity fluctuations in the discharge area. To evaluate the springs' freshwater flux we developed three different models: two of them are based on water velocity measurements and either salinity or ²²²Rn in the associated surface waters as groundwater tracers. The third approach used only salinity changes within the spring area. The three models showed good agreement and the results confirmed that the hydrologic regime of the system is strongly correlated to local precipitation and water table fluctuations with higher discharges after major rain events and very low, even reverse flow during prolong droughts. High flow spring conditions were observed twice during our study, in the early spring and mid-late summer of 2008. However the freshwater spring flux during our observation period never reached that reported from a 1970s value of 4.9×10⁶ m³/day. The maximum spring flow was estimated at about 3.0×10⁶ m³/day after heavy precipitation in February-March 2008. As a result of this storm (total of 173 mm) the salinity in the spring area dropped from about 27 to 2 in only two days. The radon-in-water concentrations dramatically increased in parallel, from about 330 Bq/m³ to about 6600 Bq/m³. Such a rapid response suggests a direct connection between the deep and the surficial aquifers.     

CHe in volatile fluxes from the solid Earth: implications for carbon geodynamics

In order to picture C geodynamics past and present, theC³He ratios of the relevant reservoirs are considered. Evaluation of publishedC³He ratio in conjunction with new results for MORB glasses worldwide, suggests that this ratio is unfractionated during magma outgassing, a best estimate being 2 × 10⁹.C³He ratios from other volcanic emissions (hot spots and arcs) do not appear significantly different when the subducted component is omitted.This result permits scaling of the CO₂ degassing flux to that of³He and yields a value of 2 × 10¹² mol/yr which corresponds to a model degassing duration of 3.9 Gyr when recycling to the mantle is disregarded.A bulk Earth chondritic ratio of about 2 × 10⁹ is calculated, very close to the MORB value. On the other hand the reconstructed exospheric (“Rubey inventory”) value of4 ± 1 × 10⁷ is very different from both basaltic and chondritic values.Among the possible interpretations of these results the following two are retained: (1) CO₂ was not released in the early age of the Earth because of the reducing conditions prevailing at that time in the mantle. Formation of the core changed this picture and permitted subsequent degassing of CO₂. (2) Carbonates need a continental crust of significant size to become stabilized in the exosphere. Therefore accumulation in the exosphere was delayed until crustal formation.Alternatively, a similar degassing behaviour for both He and CO₂ requires a massive recycling of carbonates throughout time. This possibility is in contradiction with the present-day maximum recycling rate and the severe imbalance with the observed outgassing flux on one hand and with the small fraction of carbon now present in the exosphere on the other.We conclude that carbon has never been severely degassed. The mantle acts as a buffer for C and most carbon is still retained there, possibly as graphite (or diamond?) or dissolved in minerals.     

The origins and concentrations of water,carbon, nitrogen and noble gases on Earth

The isotopic compositions of terrestrial hydrogen and nitrogen are clearly different from those of the nebular gas from which the solar system formed, and also differ from most of cometary values. Terrestrial N and H isotopic compositions are in the range of values characterizing primitive meteorites, which suggests that water, nitrogen, and other volatile elements on Earth originated from a cosmochemical reservoir that also sourced the parent bodies of primitive meteorites. Remnants of the proto-solar nebula (PSN) are still present in the mantle, presumably signing the sequestration of PSN gas at an early stage of planetary growth. The contribution of cometary volatiles appears limited to a few percents at most of the total volatile inventory of the Earth. The isotope signatures of H, N, Ne and Ar can be explained by mixing between two end-members of solar and chondritic compositions, respectively, and do not require isotopic fractionation during hydrodynamic escape of an early atmosphere.The terrestrial inventory of ⁴⁰Ar (produced by the decay of ⁴⁰K throughout the Earth's history) suggests that a significant fraction of radiogenic argon may be still trapped in the silicate Earth. By normalizing other volatile element abundances to this isotope, it is proposed that the Earth is not as volatile-poor as previously thought. Our planet may indeed contain up to ~ 3000 ppm water (preferred range: 1000–3000 ppm), and up to ~ 500 ppm C, both largely sequestrated in the solid Earth. This volatile content is equivalent to an ~ 2 (± 1) % contribution of carbonaceous chondrite (CI-CM) material to a dry proto-Earth, which is higher than the contribution of chondritic material advocated to account for the platinum group element budget of the mantle. Such a (relatively) high contribution of volatile-rich matter is consistent with the accretion of a few wet planetesimals during Earth accretion, as proposed by recent dynamical models.The abundance pattern of major volatile elements and of noble gases is also chondritic, with two notable exceptions. Nitrogen is depleted by one order of magnitude relative to water, carbon and most noble gases, which is consistent with either N retention in a mantle phase during magma generation, or trapping of N in the core. Xenon is also depleted by one order of magnitude, and enriched in heavy isotopes relative to chondritic or solar Xe (the so-called “xenon paradox”). This depletion and isotope fractionation might have taken place due to preferential ionization of xenon by UV light from the early Sun, either before Earth's formation on parent material, or during irradiation of the ancient atmosphere. The second possibility is consistent with a recent report of chondritic-like Xe in Archean sedimentary rocks that suggests that this process was still ongoing during the Archean eon (Pujol et al., 2011). If the depletion of Xe in the atmosphere was a long-term process that took place after the Earth-building events, then the amounts of atmospheric ¹²⁹Xe and ^131–136Xe, produced by the short-lived radioactivities of ¹²⁹I (T_1/2 = 16 Ma) and ²⁴⁴Pu (T_1/2 = 82 Ma), respectively, need to be corrected for subsequent loss. Doing so, the I–Pu–Xe age of the Earth becomes ≤ 50 Ma after start of solar system formation, instead of ~ 120 Ma as computed with the present-day atmospheric Xe inventory.     

山西襄汾陶寺古遗址自然变形遗迹的发现及其意义

陶寺遗址位于山西省襄汾县陶寺村南,分布面积约300万平方米,是黄河中游地区以龙山文化陶寺类型为主的遗址,距今4300—3900年,为陶寺文化的命名地.陶寺遗址被认为是先秦史籍中最早出现"中     

A note on the statistics of the largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle

This note points out a problem with the way in which extreme value distributions have been fit to the intensities of the largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle. An alternative method is described. This method is applied to observations of the three largest geomagnetic storms in solar cycles 11–22.     

Tracing coalbed natural gas-coproduced water using stable isotopes of carbon

Recovery of hydrocarbons commonly is associated with coproduction of water. This water may be put to beneficial use or may be reinjected into subsurface aquifers. In either case, it would be helpful to establish a fingerprint for that coproduced water so that it may be tracked following discharge on the surface or reintroduction to geologic reservoirs. This study explores the potential of using δ¹³C of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) of coalbed natural gas (CBNG)–coproduced water as a fingerprint of its origin and to trace its fate once it is disposed on the surface. Our initial results for water samples coproduced with CBNG from the Powder River Basin show that this water has strongly positive δ¹³C_DIC (12‰ to 22‰) that is readily distinguished from the negative δ¹³C of most surface and ground water (−8‰ to −11‰). Furthermore, the DIC concentrations in coproduced water samples are also high (more than 100 mg C/L) compared to the 20 to 50 mg C/L in ambient surface and ground water of the region. The distinctively high δ¹³C and DIC concentrations allow us to identify surface and ground water that have incorporated CBNG-coproduced water. Accordingly, we suggest that the δ¹³C_DIC and DIC concentrations of water can be used for long-term monitoring of infiltration of CBNG-coproduced water into ground water and streams. Our results also show that the δ¹³C_DIC of CBNG-coproduced water from two different coal zones are distinct leading to the possibility of using δ¹³C_DIC to distinguish water produced from different coal zones.     

How dissipation and selection of the Earth model on the quality of the Earth tidal prediction

The influence exerted by dissipation and mass correction when calculating the gravimetric ocean effect, as well as by selection of the Earth model, on the degree of closeness of the predicted parameter values of the Earth’s tidal parameters to the observed values computed by the network of superconducting gravimeters is estimated. The role of the latitude dependence of the loading delta factors and the applicability of the hybrid model of the latitude dependence of the amplitude delta factors for an elastic oceanless Earth is briefly discussed.     

Prediction of the largest events in the sandpile model based on the earthquake precursors

Earthquake precursors used for earthquake prediction in the M8 algorithm [Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov, 1990a] are adapted to the sandpile grid model close to the Manna [1991] model. It is established that the adapted precursors are efficient for predicting the largest model earthquakes. However, as distinct from real seismicity, where activity outbursts often precede a large earthquake, the prediction of the model dynamics, is characterized by a certain quiescence.     

Shedding light on the timing of the largest Late Quaternary transgression of the Caspian Sea

The Late Quaternary history of the Caspian Sea remains controversial. One of the major disagreements in this debate concerns the stratigraphic correlation of various deposits in the Caspian Basin. In this paper we identify and date, for the first time, the Enotaevka regression, lying between the two major phases of the largest Late Quaternary Caspian Sea transgression, the Khvalynian transgressive epoch, and provide a minimum estimate of sea level decrease during this regression. The River Volga is the major source of water to the Caspian; the Lower Volga region is unique in its record of palaeogeographic events, and this provides the opportunity to build a single stratigraphic and palaeogeographic history for the Pleistocene of Central Eurasia. Here we use luminescence to establish a new chronology for the largest Late Quaternary transgressive epoch of the Caspian Sea. The existing radiocarbon chronology does not allow the resolution of the two transgressive phases of this epoch (Early and Late Khvalynian). Based on clear palaeontological and geomorphological evidence, these must be very different in age, but shells associated with both transgressions gave very scattered ages of between 8 and 50 ka. This ambiguity has led to considerable discussion concerning the existence or otherwise of a deep Enotaevka regression phase between the two Khvalynian transgressions. Recently we have again identified these deposits at Kosika, on the right valley side of the Volga River. The new luminescence chronology described here, based on quartz OSL and K-feldspar pIRIR₂₉₀ ages, allows us to reconstruct the complicated history of Late Quaternary sedimentation in the southern part of the Lower Volga valley. The Kosika section reflects the following major stages: (1) the earlier Khazarian transgressive epoch; (2) a decrease in the sea level with the development of a freshwater lake/lagoon in the Volga valley; and (3) the Khvalynian transgressive-regressive epoch, including both the Early and Late Khvalynian transgressive periods, and the intercalated Enotaevka regression. Sea level during the early stage of the Khvalynian transgression reached Kosika at about 23–22 ka (approx. −1 to −2 m asl). This event is of the same age as the “grey clay” strata at the base of the Leninsk section marine unit (Kurbanov et al., 2021), also formed at the beginning of the Early Khvalynian transgression. Around 15–14 ka the Khvalynian basin moved to a regressive stage, and in the northern part of the Lower Volga the top part of the well-known ‘Chocolate Clay’ accumulated. In the southern part of the valley marine accumulation stopped at about 12–13 ka. This allows us to reconstruct a decrease in Early Khvalynian basin sea level between 15–14 ka and 13–12 ka ago, of about ∼15 m. At the Kosika section sediments derived from the Enotayevka regression are visible as a weakly developed palaeosol with evidence of surficial erosion, and these sediments are now dated to 13–12 ka. At 8.6 ± 0.5 ka, during the period of the Mangyshlak regression, aeolian deflation processes reworked sediments deposited by immediately preceding Late Khvalynian transgression.     

安徽霍山戴家院遗址自然变形遗迹的发现及其特征初探

古遗址、古墓地发掘过程中的自然变形研究是反演或充实历史和史前变形历史记录的重要工作内容之一.近期我省地震部门会同省文物考古部门,对皖西霍山戴家院考古现场进行专题发掘调查,发现了与构造运动有关的地裂缝,其中充填有砂线、砂脉.初步研究显示包括两期变形,且均显示高速变形特征,代表两次地震事件.发生时代约相当于西周晚期和春秋中晚期,前者规模较大,含砂裂缝长轴方向平行于近侧的地震活动断裂方向.本次发现及初步分析填补了东部地区西周到春秋期自然变形事件研究空白.     

固体潮地震预测与固体潮地球动力学研究的分析比较

固体潮研究是研究地震成因、地震前兆与地震预测的重要内容.在开展固体潮地震预测研究之前,固体潮主要用于地球动力学研究.然而固体潮地震预测研究与固体潮地球动力学研究的目标截然不同.地球动力学从大的时间尺度和地球整体运动(包括地球内部及表面的构造运动)来探讨其动力演化过程,进而寻求其驱动机制.固体潮地震预测研究则是研究小时间尺度、区域性地壳构造运动中与地震有关的固体潮异常现象.二者相差甚远.在现行地震预测体系中,固体潮研究也远不能与测震学研究的重要性相比.为什么会出现这种情况?固体潮地震预测研究有什么特点?这些问题的讨论,有助于帮助我们强化地震预测的目标和概念、改进固体潮地震监测技术系统、探索新的数字信号处理方法.     

Prediction of magnitude of the largest potentially induced seismic event

We propose a method for determining the possible magnitude of a potentially largest induced seismic event derived from the Gutenberg–Richter law and an estimate of total released seismic moment. We emphasize that the presented relationship is valid for induced (not triggered) seismicity, as the total seismic moment of triggered seismicity is not bound by the injection. The ratio of the moment released by the largest event and weaker events is determined by the constants a and b of the Gutenberg–Richter law. We show that for a total released seismic moment, it is possible to estimate number of events greater than a given magnitude. We determine the formula for the moment magnitude of a probable largest seismic event with one occurrence within the recurrence interval (given by one volumetric change caused by mining or injecting). Finally, we compare theoretical and measured values of the moment magnitudes of the largest induced seismic events for selected geothermal and hydraulic fracturing projects.     

Discovery of SPICE and carbon isotope stratigraphic correlation of the Cambrian Furongian Series in Tarim Craton,NW China

The Furongian Series of the Cambrian in the Tarim Craton(NW China) is mainly composed of crystalline dolostones,and is an important target for oil and gas exploration. The chronostratigraphic framework of the Furongian Series in the Tarim Craton has not yet been established due to the scarcity of fossils and the absence of the Steptoean Positive Carbon Isotope Excursion(SPICE), which is the primary global carbon isotope excursion of the Furongian Series. In this study, the SPICE was discovered by examining the carbon isotopes of the representative drilling wells in the West Platform and East Basin. A positive carbon isotope anomaly with δ~(13)C values ranging from 1.5‰ to 1.9‰(PDB), were found in the middle of the Xiaqiulitag Formation of the three drilling wells in the West Platform, and a positive excursion with δ~(13)C values up to 4.0‰(PDB), which is correlated with the SPICE, was found in the lower limestone of the Tuershaketag Formation in the East Basin. Based on the carbon isotopic data and chemostratigraphic correlation, the chronostratigraphic framework of the Furongian Series across different facies in the Tarim Craton is preliminarily established. The basal boundary of the Furongian Series was preliminarily defined by the occurrence of the SPICE. Aweak positive anomaly of δ~(13)C was observed at the base of the Penglaiba Formation of the three boreholes in the West Platform and the top of the Tuershaketag Formation of Tadong-2 well. We propose that the positive anomaly of the carbon isotope above the weak negative anomaly at the base of the Penglaiba Formation and the top of the Tuershaketag Formation can be used to define the Cambrian-Ordovician boundary in the Tarim Craton.     

Reoccurrence formulas for the largest earthquake magnitudes based on the modified cumulative frequency-magnitude relationship

A modified formula of the cumulative frequency-magnitude relation has been formulated and tested in a previous paper by the authors of this study. Based on the modified relationship, the following reoccurrence formulas have been obtained.

1. For the ‘T-years period’ larger earthquake magnitude,M _T $$M_T = \frac{1}{{A_3 }}ln\frac{{A_2 }}{{(1/T) + A_1 }}.$$
2. For the value of the maximum earthquake magnitude, which is exceeded with probabilityP inT-years period,M _PT $$M_{PT} = \frac{{ln(A_2 .T)}}{{A_3 }} - \frac{{ln[A_1 .T - ln(1 - P)]}}{{A_3 }}.$$
3. For the probability of occurrence of an earthquake of magnitudeM in aT-years period,P _MT $$P_{MT} = 1 - \exp [ - T[ - A_1 + A_2 \exp ( - A_3 M)]].$$

The above formulas provide estimates of the probability of reoccurrence of the largest earthquake events which are significantly more realistic than those based on the Gutenberg-Richter relationships; at least for numerous tested earthquake samples from the major area of Greece.     

地球上最大碰撞的地震成像

几项大型地震试验正源源不断提供着印度构造板块在西藏之下俯冲的大尺度详尽图像。