Two-dimensional modeling of fine sediment transport with mixed sediment and consolidation: Application to the Gironde Estuary,France

In order to optimize ship navigation in the macrotidal Gironde Estuary, a recent project funded by the port of Bordeaux aims at better understand and forecast hydrodynamic and fine sediment transport within the estuary. In the framework of this project, a two-dimensional hydro-sedimentary model is built. The model includes hydrodynamic forcings, mixed-sediment transport, and consolidation processes. The harmonic analysis of the astronomical tides reveals a strong distortion of the tidal wave inducing the growth of overtide constituents and the non-significant effect of tide-surge interactions in annual-scale prediction. Depending on hydrological conditions, river discharge can considerably alter the model accuracy due to the migration of the turbidity maximum zone modifying the bottom roughness. Comparison with measurements shows the ability of the model to reproduce suspended-sediment concentrations in the central Estuary. Sensitivity of the model to sediment features has also been discussed in regard of suspended-sediment concentrations and fluid mud deposits. The model will be further coupled with ship squat predictions and a morphodynamic model.     

Development and validation of a morphological model for multiple sediment classes

The complexity of sediment dynamics in aquatic systems can be better understood by applying numerical models. The development of a comprehensive morphological model is presented in this paper.The model aims to predict the sediment transport and bed evolution in natural systems composed of different sediment types. The morphological model was implemented in MOHID, a modelling system that solves the three-dimensional hydrodynamics and advection-diffusion transport of suspended sediments. Multiple sediment classes were taken into account(non-cohesive and cohesive) considering the effects of sediment mixtures and bed consolidation on resistance to erosion. To represent bottom stratigraphy, the bottom column can be divided into several layers. The key points of the simulated processes are discussed in this paper. Model results are assessed in six test cases through comparison with analytic solutions or experimental data. The outcomes demonstrate the model's capacity to simulate the transport dynamics of non-cohesive and cohesive sediments. The speed up of morphological changes by an acceleration factor permitted modelling bed evolution for long time periods.Moreover, a test case for the Tagus Estuary demonstrated the model's capacity for generating realistic sediment distribution based on the local hydrodynamic conditions. Limitations in the availability of bed composition data can be overcome by considering a warm-up run to provide realistic initial conditions for further predictions of morphological developments.     

Energetics prediction of frequency-dependent suspended sand transport rates on a macrotidal beach

The on–offshore (cross-shore) transport of sand on beaches is highly time-variable, which has made it difficult to model or predict. In this paper, simple energetics modelling is used to compare velocity moment predictions with field observations of suspended sand transport rates. Separate consideration is given to transport associated with the three main frequency-dependent cross-shore transport processes: that associated with the short (incident) waves, that due to the long (infragravity) waves, and transport associated with the mean flow. Direct comparison between the depth-averaged model predictions, and the in-situ point measurements was facilitated by making the first order assumption that the time-averaged suspension profile is exponential and the wave velocity profile is vertically uniform. An appropriate rippled bed roughness was used to provide the drag coefficient in the energetics model and the vertical length scale of the exponential suspension profile. Despite these simple assumptions, comparison of the velocity moment predictions with the field observations of suspended sand fluxes reveals that this approach has the capacity to predict transport magnitudes due to short wave, long wave, and mean flow components to within about one order of magnitude. However, owing to the limitations of the model, the transport direction of the short wave component could not, on occasion, be correctly determined, probably due to ‘reverse’ transport over ripples. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The influence of nearshore sand bank dynamics on shoreline evolution in a macrotidal coastal environment,Calais, northern France

Analyses of shoreline and bathymetry change near Calais, northern coast of France, showed that shoreline evolution during the 20th century was strongly related with shoreface and nearshore bathymetry variations. Coastal erosion generally corresponds to areas of nearshore seabed lowering while shoreline progradation is essentially associated with areas of seafloor aggradation, notably east of Calais where an extensive sand flat experienced seaward shoreline displacement up to more than 300 m between 1949 and 2000. Mapping of bathymetry changes since 1911 revealed that significant variation in nearshore morphology was caused by the onshore and alongshore migration of a prominent tidal sand bank that eventually welded to the shore. Comparison of bathymetry data showed that the volume of the bank increased by about 10×10⁷ m³ during the 20th century, indicating that the bank was acting as a sediment sink for some of the sand transiting alongshore in the coastal zone. Several lines of evidence show that the bank also represented a major sediment source for the prograding tidal flat, supplying significant amounts of sand to the accreting upper beach. Simulation of wave propagation using the SWAN wave model (Booij et al., 1999) suggests that the onshore movement of the sand bank resulted in a decrease of wave energy in the nearshore zone, leading to more dissipative conditions. Such conditions would have increased nearshore sediment supply, favoring aeolian dune development on the upper beach and shoreline progradation. Our results suggest that the onshore migration of nearshore sand banks may represent one of the most important, and possibly the primary mechanism responsible for supplying marine sand to beaches and coastal dunes in this macrotidal coastal environment.     

Morphology and sedimentology of a microtidal beach with beachrocks: Vatera,Lesbos, NE Mediterranean

The present contribution considers the dynamics of beaches occupied by outcropping/buried beachrocks, i.e. hard coastal formations consisting of beach material lithified by in situ precipitated carbonate cements. The dynamics of a Greek microtidal beach with beachrocks (Vatera, Lesbos) are examined through the collection and analysis of morphological and sedimentary field data, a 2-D nearshore hydrodynamic model and a specially constructed 1-D morphodynamic model. The results showed that the beachrock-occupied part of the beach is characterised by distinctive morphodynamics as: (i) its beachface is associated with large slopes; (ii) there is a good spatial correlation between the sub-aerial and shallow submerged mean beach profile and the buried/outcropping upper beachrock surface; and (iii) the seaward margins of the submerged beachrock outcrops are always associated with a ‘scour step’ i.e. a submerged cliff. The results also showed that beachrock outcrops can bias cross-shore sediment exchanges by impeding onshore transport due to the presence of the scour step. In this sense, beachrock outcrops may be considered as offshore transport ‘conduits’ for the beach sediments. A conceptual model of beach sediment transport, based on the field data and the hydrodynamic modelling is proposed. According to this model, fresh beach material from adjacent terrestrial sources is transported alongshore, towards the central part of the embayment, where a littoral transport convergence zone occurs under most wave conditions. There, the laterally supplied sediments are lost offshore.     

An enhanced depth-averaged tidal model for morphological studies in the presence of rotary currents

A simple and efficient method to improve morphological predictions using depth-averaged tidal models is presented. The method includes the contribution of secondary flows in sediment transport using the computed flow field from a depth-averaged model. The method has been validated for a case study using the 3D POLCOMS model and ADCP data. The enhanced depth-averaged tidal model along with the SWAN wave model are applied to morphological prediction around the Lleyn Peninsula and Bardsey Island as a case study in the Irish Sea. Due to the presence of a headland in this area two asymmetrical tidal eddies are developed in which the cyclonic eddy is stronger as a result of Coriolis effects. The results show that the enhanced model can effectively predict formation of sand banks at the centre of cyclonic eddies, while the depth-averaged model, due to its inability to accommodate secondary flow, is inadequate in this respect.     

Towards medium-term (order of months) morphodynamic modelling of the Teign estuary, UK

The main objective of this paper is to address the principal mechanisms involved in the medium-term (order of months to years) morphodynamic evolution of estuaries through the application of a process-based numerical modelling. The Teign estuary (Teignmouth, UK) is the selected site. The system is forced by the macrotidal semi-diurnal tide in the English Channel and is perturbed to a minor extent by high river discharge events (freshets). Although waves have a definite influence on the adjacent coastal area, Wells (Teignmouth Quay Development Environmental Statement: Changes to Physical Processes. Report R.984c:140. ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd., Southampton, 2002b) suggested that swell waves do not enter the estuary. Hence, wave effects are neglected in this study, as only tides and the river discharge are taken into account. The sediment grain size is highly variable, but mainly sandy. Within the frame of the COAST3D project (), four bathymetric surveys of the adjacent coastal area were carried out at a nearly weekly intervals. The outer estuary and the adjacent coastal area were also surveyed every 6 months as part of the COASTVIEW project (). Based on these data and on continuously measured parameters, such as water level, waves, wind and river discharge, numerical modelling of the morphodynamic processes can be tested. To replicate the morphological changes in the medium-term within a feasible simulation time, forcing conditions are reduced through the use of an input reduction method (called ensemble technique). In this study, simulations are based on the coupling between Telemac-2D and its non-cohesive sediment transport module, Sisyphe (version 5.3 for both modules). Three different sediment transport formulae were tested: (1) Engelund and Hansen (A monograph on sediment transport in alluvial streams, 3rd edn. Technological University of Denmark, Copenhagen, 1967) including the modifications proposed by Chollet and Cunge (J Hydraul Eng 17(1):1–13, 1979); (2) Bijker (Mechanics of sediment transport by the combination of waves and current. In: Design and reliability of coastal structures. 23rd international conference on Coastal Engineering, pp 147–173, 1968) and (3) Soulsby (Dynamics of Marine Sands. A manual for practical applications. HR Wallingford, Wallingford, p 142, 1997) modified version of van Rijn [J Hydraul Eng 110(10):1431–1456, 1984a, J Hydraul Eng 110(11):1613–1641, 1984b] formulation. Both a qualitative (i.e. visual comparison) and a quantitative tool [Brier Skill Score (BSS); described in Sutherland et al. in Coast Eng 51:917–939, 2004b] are applied to assess the similarity of simulations when compared to model predictions and observations. Tests confirmed the reliability and time efficiency of the ensemble technique, since it reproduced very well the results of a reference run, a computation based on the observed boundary conditions. For the spring-neap cycle modelled, the BSS was of 0.91 (a perfect modelling would have a BSS of 1), with a reduction in the simulation time on the order of 80%. For the 6-month-period simulation, results were also excellent: BSS=0.92 and a computer time reduction of 85%. In principle, this method has the advantage of being applied to any process-based numerical model.     

Measurements and modelling of beach groundwater flow in the swash-zone: a review

This paper reviews research on beach groundwater dynamics and identifies research questions which will need to be answered before swash zone sediment transport and beach profile evolution can be successfully modelled. Beach groundwater hydrodynamics are a result of combined forcing from the tide and waves at a range of frequencies, and a large number of observations exist which describe the shape and elevation of the beach watertable in response to tidal forcing at diurnal, semi-diurnal and spring-neap tidal frequencies. Models of beach watertable response to tidal forcing have been successfully validated; however, models of watertable response to wave forcing are less well developed and require verification. Improved predictions of swash zone sediment transport and beach profile evolution cannot be achieved unless the complex fluid and sediment interactions between the surface flow and the beach groundwater are better understood, particularly the sensitivity of sediment transport processes to flow perpendicular to the permeable bed.The presence of a capillary fringe, particularly when it lies just below the sand surface, has influences on beach groundwater dynamics. The presence of a capillary fringe can have a significant effect on the exchange of water between the ocean and the coastal aquifer, particularly in terms of the storage capacity of the aquifer. Field and laboratory observations have also shown that natural groundwater waves usually propagate faster and decay more slowly in aquifers with a capillary fringe, and observations which suggest that horizontal flows may also occur in the capillary zone have been reported. The effects of infiltration and exfiltration are generally invoked to explain why beaches with a low watertable tend to accrete and beaches with a high watertable tend to erode. However, the relative importance of processes such as infiltration losses in the swash, changes in the effective weight of the sediment, and modified shear stress due to boundary layer thinning, are not yet clear. Experimental work on the influence of seepage flows within sediment beds provides conflicting results concerning the effect on bed stability. Both modelling and experimental work indicates that the hydraulic conductivity of the beach is a critical parameter. However, hydraulic conductivity varies both spatially and temporally on beaches, particularly on gravel and mixed sand and gravel beaches. Another important, but poorly understood, consideration in beach groundwater studies is the role of air encapsulation during the wetting of beach sand.     

Bimodal wave spectra in lower Chesapeake Bay, sea bed energetics and sediment transport during winter storms

The transition zone separating estuarine environments from the coastal ocean is characterized not only by distinctive morphological and sedimentary trends but by unique hydrodynamic forces as well. Lower Chesapeake Bay, a large coastal estuary within the Mid-Atlantic Bight of the U.S. East Coast, experiences complex wave and current-induced forces produced during winter storms. Wave and current measurements made near Thimble Shoal Light over five winter seasons show that most storms simultaneously produce both ocean and bay-generated wave trains that appear as distinct bimodal peaks in directional spectra. Analysis of selected storm wave records reveal that lower-frequency ocean waves, although nominally lower in amplitude than higher-frequency bay waves, are roughly equivalent to bay waves in terms of energy expended on beds of fine- to medium-grained sand at either end of the Thimble Shoal Channel. Grain-friction energy dissipation estimates calculated for waves and currents suggest that waves provide more net energy capable of transporting bottom sediment than currents, although strong barotropic flows briefly encountered during a major storm on 13–14 March 1993, exceeded wave energy expended at the bed by almost an order of magnitude. From analyses of wave orbital velocity spectra, it is shown that dual wave trains characterized by differences in peak frequency and direction may assist each other through interactions that increase their combined contribution to frictional energy dissipation and inferred sediment transport at the bed.     

A new instability mechanism related to high-angle waves

Waves with a large incidence angle in deep water can drive a morphodynamic instability on a sandy coast whereby shoreline sand waves, cuspate forelands, and spits can emerge. This instability is related to bathymetric perturbations extending offshore in the shoaling zone. Here, we explore a different mechanism where the large incidence angle is supposed to occur at breaking and the bathymetric perturbations occur only in the surf zone. For wave incidence angles at breaking above ≈?45^°, the one-line approximation of coastal dynamics predicts an unstable shoreline. This instability (EHAWI) is scale-free and the growth rate increases without bound for decreasing wavelength. Here we use a 2DH morphodynamic model resolving surf zone instabilities to investigate whether EHAWI could approximate a real instability in nature with a characteristic length scale. Assuming very idealized conditions on the bathymetric profile and sediment transport, we find a 2DH instability mode consisting of shore-oblique up-current bars coupled to a meandering of the longshore current. This mode grows for high-angle waves, above about 30^° (offshore) and the maximum growth rate occurs for the angle maximizing the angle at breaking, about 70^° (offshore). The dominant wavelength is of the order of the surf zone width. Interestingly, for long sand waves, the growth rate never becomes negative and it matches very well the anti-diffusive behavior of EHAWI. This distinguishes the present instability mode from other modes found in previous studies for other bathymetric and sediment transport conditions. Thus, we conclude that EHAWI approximates a real morphodynamic instability only for quite particular conditions. In such case, a characteristic length scale of the instability emerges thanks to surf zone processes that damp short wavelengths.     

Distribution of clay minerals in marine sediments off Chennai,Bay of Bengal,India： Indicators of sediment sources and transport processes

Clay mineralogy, texture size and statistical analyses were carried out on surface sediments from the continental shelf of Chennai, Bay of Bengal, India. The purpose of this study is to characterize the clay mineral distribution and its relation to the hydrodynamics off Chennai to identify the sources and transport pathways of the marine sediments. Characterization of clay minerals in coastal sediments by Fourier Transform Infrared （FTIR） spectroscopy has provided the association of quartz, feldspar, kaolinite, chlorite, illite and iron oxides （magnetite and hematite） derived from river catchments and coastal erosion. Kaolinite, chlorite, illite, iron oxides, and organic matter are the dominant minerals in Cooum, and Adayar region. High quartz and feldspar zones were identified in Marina, which are being confined the sand zone and paralleling the coast. The strong relationships among the wave energy density, sand, quartz and carbonate revealed that wave induced littoral drift system play a dominant role in transportation and deposition of sediments in the Chennai coast. The sediment texture and minerals data are in agreement well with the previous results of hydrodynamics and littoral drift models in this region. Multivariate statistical analyses （correlation, cluster and factor analyses） were carried out and obtained results suggested that clay minerals and organic matter are trapped in silt and clay particles, whereas quartz, feldspar and carbonate are associated with sand particles. Results of sediment sources and transport processes from this study will be useful to predict the fate of the pollutants released from land or the potential change in sediment delivery to coastal areas.     

Morphological controls in sandy estuaries: the influence of tidal flats and bathymetry on sediment transport

The morphodynamics of shallow, vertically well-mixed estuaries, characterised by tidal flats and deeper channels, have been investigated. This paper examines what contributes to flood/ebb-dominant sediment transport in localised regions through a 2D model study (using the TELEMAC modelling system). The Dyfi Estuary in Wales, UK has been used as a case study and, together with idealised estuary shapes, shows that shallow water depths lead to flood dominance in the inner estuary whilst tidal flats and deep channels cause ebb dominance in the outer estuary. For medium sands and with an artificially ‘flattened’ bathymetry (i.e. no tidal flats), the net sediment transport switches from ebb-dominant to flood-dominant where the parameter a/h (local tidal amplitude ÷ local tidally averaged water depth) exceeds 1.2. Sea level rise will reduce this critical value of a/h and also reduce the ebb-directed sediment transport significantly, leading to a flood-dominated estuarine system. A similar pattern, albeit with greater transport, was simulated with tidal flats included and also with a reduced grain size. This suggests that analogous classifications for flood/ebb asymmetry of the tide in estuaries as a whole may not represent the local sediment transport in sufficient detail. Through the Dyfi simulations, the above criterion involving a/h is shown to be complicated further by augmented flow past a spit at the estuary mouth which gives rise to a self-maintaining scour hole. Simulations of one year of bed evolution in an idealised flat-bottomed estuary, including tidal flow past a spit, recreate the flood/ebb dominance on either side of the spit and the formation of a scour hole in between. The erosion rate at the centre of the hole is reduced as the hole deepens, suggesting the establishment of a self-maintaining equilibrium state.     

A cross-shore suspended sediment transport shape function parameterisation for natural beaches

A new field-based parameterisation (‘shape function’) describing the distribution of cross-shore suspended sediment transport across a beach profile is presented. Time-averaged and depth-integrated suspended sediment fluxes were measured over 39 tides at Sennen Cove, Cornwall, UK, for a range of wave conditions (offshore significant wave heights 0.1–2.5 m). The suspended sediment flux data were heuristically separated into four transport components: (1) mean flux in the surf/shoaling zone; (2) oscillatory flux in the surf/shoaling zone; (3) onshore flux in the swash/inner surf zone and (4) offshore flux in the swash/inner surf zone. Each of these transport components was related to the local water depth (h) normalised by the breakpoint depth (h_b) and the four resulting suspended transport shape functions were combined to form a total suspended load shape function. Each shape function component is scaled independently by the wave energy level through h_b. The total suspended load shape function predicts onshore sediment transport under low-energy conditions, with peaks at the breakpoint and in the swash zone, in agreement with the field observations. Under high-energy conditions the total suspended load shape function predicts onshore transport in the shoaling zone, offshore transport in the surf zone and onshore transport in the inner swash zone.     

A process-based model for sediment transport under various wave and current conditions

The purpose of this study is to investigate the capability of a newly developed process-based model for sediment transport under a wide variety of wave and current conditions.The model is based on the first-order boundary layer equation and the sediment advection-diffusion equation.In particular,a modified low Reynolds number k-e model is coupled to provide the turbulence closure.Detailed model verifications have been performed by simulating a number of laboratory experiments,covering a considerable range of hydrodynamic conditions such as sinusoidal waves,asymmetric waves and wave-current interactions.The model provides satisfactory numerical results which agree well with the measured results,including the time-averaged/dependent sediment concentration profiles and sediment flux profiles,as well as the time series of concentration at given elevations.The observed influences of wave orbital velocity amplitude,wave period and sediment grain size are correctly reproduced,indicating that the fundamental physical mechanisms of those processes are properly represented in the model.It is revealed that the present model is capable of predicting sediment transport under a wide range of wave and current conditions,and can be used to further study the morphodynamic processes in real coastal regions.     

Alteration of bottom roughness by benthic organisms in a sandy coastal environment

This work deals with the potential influence of benthic communities on the sediment dynamics of the coastal zone, and specifically with the modifications to bottom roughness caused by communities and their effects on wave propagation across the coastal profile. Time-series of video observations of the sea bottom on the Ebro delta coast were analysed in order to estimate the bottom roughness associated with physical and biological morphological components and the sediment reworking rates caused by epifaunal organisms. Biological roughness was mainly caused by ophiuroids and tanatocenosis of bivalve and gastropod shells, which changed their abundance during the study period. The total biological roughness (K_bio) ranged between 0.27 and 0.81 cm and represented a significant part (<20%) of the total form drag roughness. Flattening of ripples caused by bioturbation was observed under low-energy conditions. Surface sediment perturbation and bioturbation rates were also estimated. Based on these observations a wave propagation model was applied in order to carry out a sensitivity analysis of the significance of biological roughness on wave dissipation in the study area under different wave conditions.     

Fine sediment carrying capacity of combined wave and current flows

The so-called fine sediment in many coastal areas and estuaries in China is mostly referred to the mixture of cohesive sediment and non-cohesive sediment. To predict the mixed type time sediment transport, sediment carrying capacity formulae combined with the 2-D suspended sediment transport equation and morphologic equation have been widely used in China. In the present study, the sediment carrying capacity formula suggested by Dou et al. （1995） for wave conditions has been improved and implemented for the prediction of sediment transport in nearshore regions where wave activities are significant. The improvement is based on the wave energy dissipation principle inside and outside the surf zone. In the improved formula, sediment in suspension increases with the magnitude of the wave period and this feature complies with general observations. More than 300 laboratory and field measured data sets have been reviewed and 12 of them have been used to verify and determine the major coefficients in the improved formula. The application of the sediment carrying capacity model in combined wave and current situations shows that the model can faithfully reproduce the cross-shore sediment concentration distributions at the southwest coast of Bohai Bay.     

网格嵌套技术在模拟海底沙波运移中的应用Ⅱ——南海北部沙波运移

本文发展了一套适用于模拟我国南海北部小尺度沙波运移的数值模型,该模型由超高分辨率三维海洋环境数值模块和泥沙运移模块组成,综合考虑了地形、潮汐、温盐和风应力等因素对海底流场和沙波运移的影响,可模拟时间间隔一年以上的沙波运移.研究发现,沙脊两侧沙波运移方向相反是潮汐、地形与温盐三方面因素综合作用的结果,其中温盐分布所导致的密度流是沙波运移中不可忽略的因素之一.与实测结果比较证明,本文模拟结果优于2DV模型和Q3D模型,并且可模拟沙脊两侧沙波运移方向翻转的现象.     

Longshore variations in nearshore wave processes at magilligan point,northern ireland

Magilligan Point is a recurved cuspate foreland at the mouth of Lough Foyle. Two wave regimes intersect in the estuary mouth and the manner of their interplay controls shoreline changes. Ocean swell waves from the N and NE are refracted around the recurve, losing both height and energy longshore. Width of the surf zone decreases and waves tend to steepen, although both these changes and wave refraction owe something to nearshore geometry. Angle of wave approach becomes more acute and a westerly flowing longshore current moves sand S and SW along the beach. Estuary waves from the S and SW are wind-driven with high-frequencies and steepnesses. They generate a northeasterly current which returns material N, but dies out as the waves become obliterated by nearshore attenuation and breaking of swell. It is possible to identify a time-averaged null-point where shoreline wave power is balanced, although this tends to shift over short periods causing rapid morphological changes. The existence of two independent, but counteractive cells ensures the long-term maintenance of the foreland, without requiring major or continuous supplies of fresh sediment.     

Numerical modelling of morphodynamics—Vilaine Estuary

The main objective of this paper is to develop a method to simulate long-term morphodynamics of estuaries dominated by fine sediments, which are subject to both tidal flow and meteorologically induced variations in freshwater run-off and wave conditions. The method is tested on the Vilaine Estuary located in South Brittany, France. The estuary is subject to a meso–macrotidal regime. The semi-diurnal tidal range varies from around 2.5 to 5 m at neap and spring, respectively. The freshwater input is controlled by a dam located approximately 8 km from the mouth of the estuary. Sediments are characterised as mostly fines, but more sandy areas are also found. The morphology of the estuary is highly influenced by the dam. It is very dynamic and changes in a complicated manner with the run-off from the dam, the tide and the wave forcing at the mouth of the estuary. Extensive hydrodynamic and sediment field data have been collected in the past and provide a solid scientific basis for studying the estuary. Based on a conceptual understanding of the morphodynamics, a numerical morphological model with coupled hydrodynamic, surface wave and sediment transport models is formulated. The numerical models are calibrated to reproduce sediment concentrations, tidal flat altimetry and overall sediment fluxes. Scaling factors are applied to a reference year to form quasi-realistic hydrodynamic forcing and river run-off, which allow for the simulations to be extended to other years. The simulation results are compared with observed bathymetric changes in the estuary during the period 1998–2005. The models and scaling factors are applied to predict the morphological development over a time scale of up to 10 years. The influence of the initial conditions and the sequence of external hydrodynamic forcing, with respect to the morphodynamic response of the estuary, are discussed.