Seismic Hazard of Honduras

In this paper we have described the proceduresused, input data applied and results achieved in ourefforts to develop seismic hazard maps of Honduras.The probabilistic methodology of Cornell is employed.Numerical calculations were carried out by making useof the computer code SEISRISK III. To examine theimpact of uncertainties in seismic and structuralcharacteristics, the logic tree formalism has beenused. We compiled a de-clustered earthquake cataloguefor the region comprising 1919 earthquakes occurringduring the period from 1963 to 1997. Unified momentmagnitudes were introduced. Definition of aseismotectonic model of the whole region under review,based on geologic, tectonic and seismic information,led to the definition of seven seismogenetic zones forwhich seismic characteristics were determined. Fourdifferent attenuation models were considered. Resultsare expressed in a series of maps of expected PGA for60% and 90% probabilities of nonexceedence in a50-year interval which corresponds to return periodsof 100 and 475 years, respectively. The highest PGAvalues of about 0.4g (90% probability ofnon-exceedence) are expected along the borders withGuatemala and El Salvador.     

Application of the Spatially Smoothed Seismicity and Monte Carlo Methods to Estimate the Seismic Hazard of Eritrea and the Surrounding Region

The region of interest is characterized by incomplete data sets and little information about the tectonic features. Therefore, two methodologies for estimating seismic hazard were used in order to elucidate the robustness of the results: the method of spatially smoothed seismicity introduced by Frankel (1995) and later extended by Lapajne et al. (1997) and a Monte Carlo approach presented by Ebel and Kafka (1999). In the first method, fault-rupture oriented elliptical Gaussian smoothing was performed to estimate future activity rates along the causative structures. Peak ground accelerations were computed for a grid size of 15 km × 415 km assuming the centre of the grids as epicentres, from which the seismic hazard map was produced. The attenuation relationship by Ambraseys et al. (1996) was found suitable for the region under study. PGA values for 10% probability of exceedence in 50 years (return period of 475 years) were computed for each model and a combined seismic hazard map was produced by subjectively assigning weights to each of these models. A worst-case map is also obtained by picking the highest value at each grid point from values of the four hazard maps. The Monte Carlo method is used to estimate seismic hazard, for comparison to the results from our previous approach. Results obtained from both methods are comparable except values in the first set of maps estimate greater hazard in areas of low seismicity. Both maps indicate a higher hazard along the main tectonic features of the east African and Red Sea rift systems. Within Eritrea, the highest PGA exceeded a value 25% of g, located north of Red Sea port of Massawa. In areas around the capital, Asmara, PGA values exceed 10% of g.     

Seismic Hazard Mapping and Microzonation in the Sikkim Himalaya through GIS Integration of Site Effects and Strong Ground Motion Attributes

The seismic ground motion hazard is mapped in the Sikkim Himalaya with local and regional site conditions incorporated through geographic information system. A strong motion network in Sikkim comprising of 9 digital accelerographs recorded more than 100 events during 1998–2002, of which 41 events are selected with signal-to-noise ratio 3 for the estimation of site response (SR), peak ground acceleration (PGA) and predominant frequency (PF) at all stations. With these and inputs from IRS-1C LISS III digital data, topo-sheets, geographical boundary of the State of Sikkim, surface geological maps, soil taxonomy map in 1:50,000 scale and seismic refraction profiles, the seismological and geological thematic maps, namely, SR, PGA, PF, lithology, soil class, %slope, drainage, and landslide layers are generated. The geological themes are united to form the basic site condition coverage of the region. The seismological themes are assigned normalized weights and feature ranks following a pair-wise comparison hierarchical approach and later integrated to evolve the seismic hazard map. When geological and seismological layers are integrated together through GIS, microzonation map is prepared. The overall site response, PGA and predominant frequency show an increasing trend in the NW–SE direction peaking at Singtam in the lesser Himalaya. As Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) is approached, the attribute value increases further. A quasi-probabilistic seismic hazard index has been proposed based on site response, peak ground acceleration and predominant frequency. Six seismic hazard zones are marked with percent probability <22%, 22–37%, 37–52%, 52–67%, 67–82%, >82% at 3 Hz and <20%, 20–34%, 34–48%, 48–61%, 61–75%, >75% at 9 Hz. In the microzonation vector layer of integrated seismological and geological themes also six major zones are mapped, with percent probability <15%, 15–31%, 31–47%, 47–63%, 63–78%, >78% at low frequency end. The maximum risk is attached to the probability greater than 78% in the Singtam and its adjoining area. These maps are generally better spatial representation of seismic hazard including site-specific analysis.     

Comparison Between Recorded and Derived Horizontal Peak Ground Accelerations in Jordan

The isoseismal map for the earthquake that occurred in the Jordan Valley on 11 July 1927 was analyzed and used to develop Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) Attenuation relation for Jordan needed for use in relevant seismic hazard evaluation procedures. Strong motion data of earthquakes that occurred in Jordan and Israel during the last 15 years were summarized. A comparison is made between recorded PGA's and those calculated using the derived Attenuation relations commonly used by experts in the region. The comparison showed that the derived relation is appropriate for estimating PGA values on alluvium foundations. The derived relation gave results close to those obtained using a relation introduced by Esteva in 1974. The 1982 relation of Ben-Menahem and co-workers gave reasonable predictions of PGA values for most geological formations of foundations, in general.     

A New Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Vrancea (Romania) Seismogenic Zone

In this paper we apply a probabilistic methodology to map specific seismic hazard induced by the Vrancea Seismogenic Zone, which represents the uttermost earthquake danger to Romania as well as its surroundings. The procedure is especially suitable for the estimation of seismic hazard at an individual site, and seismic hazard maps can be created by applying it repeatedly to grid points covering larger areas. It allows the use of earthquake catalogues with incompletely reported historical and complete instrumental parts. When applying themethodology, special attention was given to the effect of hypocentral depth and the variation of attenuation according to azimuth. Hazard maps specifying a 10% chance of exceedance of the given peak ground acceleration value for an exposure time of 50 years were prepared for three different characteristic depths of earthquakes in the Vrancea area. These maps represent a new realistic contribution to the mitigation of the earthquake risk caused by the Vrancea Seismogenic Zone in terms of: (1) input data (consistent, reliable, and the most complete earthquake catalogue), (2) appropriate and specific attenuation relationships (considering both azimuthal and depth effects); and (3) a new and versatile methodology.     

地震动力学与板块构造:地震灾害评估

作为地震灾害评估的理论基础,地震动力学主要研究与地震活动有关的断裂机制、破裂过程、震源辐射和由此而引起的地震波的传播及地面运动规律。对地震力学、震源辐射和能量释放等经典理论问题进行了系统研究。在此基础上,应用最新的定量地震学研究方法,以逻辑树的形式综合地震、地质和大地测量资料,提供了不同构造环境和断裂机制条件下地震灾害评估的概率分析和确定性分析实例。用于震源分析的典型构造类型包括板内地壳震源层、地壳活动断层及其速率、板块俯冲界面和俯冲板片。由于输入模型中不确定因素的存在,如输入参数的随机性和科学分析方法本身的不确定性,对分析结果的不确定性需审慎对待。通常对不同的模型或参量,包括地面衰减模型,进行加权平均可较为合理地减小结果的偏差：概率分析和确定性分析方法的结合亦为可取之有效途径。     

Seismic Hazard Assessment in the Area of Mystras-Sparta,South Peloponnesus,Greece, Based on Local Seismotectonic,Seismic, Geologic Information and on Different Models of Rupture Propagation

Strong seismic events once again confirm the view that great destructive earthquakes are produced by the reactivation of pre-existing faults although they have usually remained inactive for many, perhaps thousands of years. It is evident that such active seismogenic zones, with little or no seismicity, have presumably been ignored in the determination of the region's seismic hazard. At south Peloponnesus, Greece, is situated at Taygetos mountain. At its eastern front lies a large normal fault system, the southern segment being the Sparta fault. This area has been characterized by low seismicity for the last 25 centuries. However, during the 6th and 5th centuries B.C. several destructive earthquakes have been reported. That of 464 B.C., was the most destructive and devastated the city of Sparta. Detailed morphotectonic observations of this area, suggest that the earthquake of 464 B.C. could be related to the most recent reactivation of this fault. The ground accelerations that would be produced by a future activation of the Sparta fault, were calculated, by applying a method which takes into account information mainly from the seismotectonic parameters of the Sparta fault, the rupture pattern, the properties of the propagation medium and the local ground conditions. Moreover, these results were compared with those of other independent studies based mainly on the seismic data of the area. This method estimated greater expected values of ground acceleration than those computed by the conventional seismic hazard methods. The highest values correspond to the activation of the Sparta fault either in a unilateral rupture, which would start from the southernmost point of the fault, or in a circular one. Furthermore, an increase is observed of the order of 50% in the ground acceleration values in unconsolidated soft ground in relation to the corresponding values of hard ground. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Mixing Methodologies in Seismic Hazard Assessment via a Logic Tree Procedure: An Application for Eastern Spain

This study provides a procedure for assessing seismic hazardand uncertainties in regions that are characterised by a large non-instrumental earthquakedatabase and a seismic and tectonic behaviour which doesn't allow an evident seismic zonation.This procedure is a synthesis of the non-zoning or non-parametric methodology (using extremevalues distribution functions as proposed by Epstein and Lomnitz, 1966) and the zoning orparametric methodology (using the theorem of total probability as proposed by Cornell, 1968)via a logic tree procedure taking into consideration the advantages offered by each of these.Taking the area which we shall describe as the east coast of Spain and surrounding inland areas,an application was made and a specific logic tree was developed in order to solve the problems anduncertainties related to the evaluation of the seismic hazard using both methodologies. The use of thelogic tree allowed the systematisation of a large number of solutions obtained. A number of relevantresults were obtained which show that in some cases there are great differences in the seismichazard results provided by the non-zoning and the zoning methodologies. In these cases, mean value andstandard deviation of the obtained results provide an intermediate solution to the over-conservativeestimation provided by the non-zoning methodology and the lowest results provided by the zoningmethodology. In other cases results provided by both methodologies are significantly closer.In any case, synthesis among both methodologies gives a wider knowledge of the uncertaintiesassociated with the seismic hazard results. Finally uncertainties increase with the decreaseof the annual probability of exceedence and in sites with a seismic history of large size earthquakes.     

Seismic hazard assessment in TERESA test areas based on a Bayesian technique

A method based on Bayesian techniques has been applied to evaluate the seismic hazard in the two test areas selected by the participants in the ESC/SC8-TERESA project: Sannio-Matese in Italy and the northern Rhine region (BGN). A prior site occurrence model (prior SOM) is obtain from a seismicity distribution modeled in wide seismic sources. The posterior occurrence model (posterior SOM) is calculated after a Bayesian correction which, basically, recovers the spatial information of the epicenter distribution and considers attenuation and location errors, not using source zones. The uncertainties of the occurrence probabilities are evaluated in both models.The results are displayed in terms of probability and variation coefficient contour maps for a chosen intensity level, and with plots of mean return period versus intensity in selected test sites, including the 90% probability intervals.It turns out that the posterior SOM gives a better resolution in the probability estimate, decreasing its uncertainty, especially in low seismic activity regions.     

Seismic hazard assessment for Guatemala City

Guatemala is one of the Central American countries that for some years now have been participating in a regional program for natural hazard assessment and disaster reduction, funded by the Nordic countries and coordinated by a regional institution (CEPREDENAC). Recent work related to seismic hazard has included the standardization, reporting and processing of seismicity data across the borders, followed by regional hazard modeling. The work presented here for Guatemala City represents a step from a regional to a more local level, based on reevaluation of historical seismicity, geological data related to active faults, and attenuation relations recently derived from analysis of strong motion records from the region. The site specific hazard calculations indicate that expected values of peak ground acceleration are ranging from less than 2 to more than 6 m s^–2, corresponding to annual exceedence probabilities ranging from 0.1 to 0.001, respectively.

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Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Taiwan Region on the Basis of Recent Strong-Motion Data and Prognostic Zonation of Future Earthquakes

The paper describes an integrated approach to seismic hazard assessment, which was applied for the Taiwan region. First, empirical modelsfor ground motion estimation in the region were obtained on the basisof records from recent (1993-1999) earthquakes. The databaseincludes strong-motion data collected during the recent Chi-Chiearthquake (M=7.6, 21 September 1999) and large (M=6.8)aftershocks. The ground-motion database was also used for evaluationof generalised site amplification functions for typical soil classes(B, C and D). Second, the theoretical seismic catalogue (2001–2050)for the Taiwan region had been calculated using the 4D-model(location, depth, time) for dynamic deformation of the Earth' crustand 5D-model (location, depth, time, magnitude) for seismic process.The models were developed on the basis of available geophysical andgeodynamic data that include regional seismic catalogue. Third, theregion & site & time-dependent seismic analysis, which is basedon schemes of probable earthquake zones evaluated from the theoreticalcatalogue, regional ground motion models, and local site responsecharacteristics, has been performed. The seismic hazard maps arecompiled in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and ResponseSpectra (RS) amplitudes. The maps show distribution of amplitudesthat will not be exceeded with certain probability in condition oftypical soil classes during all possible earthquakes that may occur inthe region during time period of 2003–2025. The approach allowsintroducing new parameter that describes dependency of seismichazard on time, so-called 'period of maximum hazard'. Theparameter shows the period, during which every considered sitewill be subjected by the maximum value of ground motioncharacteristic (PGA or RS).     

青藏高原东南缘现今大震活动特征及其趋势：活动构造体系角度的初步分析结果

青藏滇缅印尼歹字型构造体系是地质力学中最为典型的反"S"状(或"Z"状)旋扭构造体系,其中各构造部位之间在运动学与动力学方面具有密切的成生联系,并且现今活动性非常显著,属于典型的活动构造体系。梳理分析该构造体系中M≥6.8历史大地震的活动状况发现,与其运动学方面的整体性与协调性相对应,其头部、中部与尾部之间的大地震活动具有明显的联动效应,即当头部与尾部发生大地震序列后不久(大致为几个月、几年或十几年尺度),中部(尤其是我国的川滇强震区)随即也会发生大地震。但在1997年以来的最近一次大地震活动序列中,构成该构造体系中段的川滇地区却出现了长达15年之久的"异常平静"状态,这无疑意味着该区未来发生大地震的危险性将显著增加。进一步结合西南地区川滇弧形旋扭活动构造体系研究的最新成果,依据活动断裂带上大地震危险性判定的离逝时间、地震空区和强震连锁反应等"三准则",初步认为该区当前存在至少9个比较明显的大地震危险区带,包括:鲜水河-小江断裂带上的安宁河段、巧家段和南端的澄江-建水段,理塘-大理-瑞丽弧形活动构造带上的畹町断裂带和南汀河断裂带、滇西北裂陷带中的鹤庆-松桂断陷盆地区和程海-宾川断裂带期纳-宾川段,澜沧-景洪断裂带的景洪段,以及近南北向的保山断陷盆地和元谋断陷盆地。这一研究结果将有助于进一步全面认识我国西南地区当前的大地震形势,进而科学部署开展地震地质与地震预报预测工作。     

Seismic Hazards Assessment for Radioactive Waste Disposal Sites in Regions of Low Seismic Activity

A comparative tectonic quiescence and lack of earthquakes make the stable centres of continents attractive for siting long-term radioactive waste storage facilities. The low rates of deformation in such regions, however, make it difficult to characterize their long-term seismotectonic behaviour, leading to uncertain estimates for the very low probability hazard estimates required by society. In an attempt to overcome the deficiency of both contemporary seismicity and paleoseismic data in central Canada, we have used earthquake histories from regions with similar seismotectonic characteristics from around the world. Substituting space for time, we estimate a long-term rate per 10⁶ km² of 0.004 magnitude ≥6 earthquakes per annum, of which 33–100% might rupture to the surface.     

基于小流域的地震扰动区降雨型滑坡泥石流危险性评价方法

地震扰动区存在大量震裂松散坡体,在持续或者密集的降雨条件下极易转化为滑坡灾害。同时,滑坡又会给泥石流提供大量松散固体物质,增加泥石流的危险性。因此,在震区,灾害通常以"链"的形式出现,比单一灾种危害性大。为了更有效地对地质灾害危险性进行评价,笔者将滑坡、泥石流作为灾害链,综合地加以分析和研究。选择5·12汶川大地震中受灾严重的都江堰市白沙河流域的17条泥石流沟作为研究区,建立滑坡-泥石流危险性评价耦合模型,研究24 h不同降雨量条件下小流域滑坡泥石流危险性的变化。耦合模型包括了坡体稳定性评价模型,水文模型及以泥石流规模、发生频率、流域面积、主沟长度、流域高差、切割密度、不稳定斜坡比为评价因子的泥石流危险性评价统计模型。研究结果表明:随着降雨量的增大,参与泥石流活动的松散物质方量持续增加,但当24 h降雨量超过200 mm后,泥石流沟的危险度等级不再发生变化;17条泥石流沟中4条为中危险度,12条为高危险度,1条为极高危险度。这说明研究区地质灾害问题相当严峻,在多雨季节存在泥石流群发的可能性,直接威胁到居住在泥石流沟附近的人民群众生命财产安全;因此,对于有直接危害对象的高危险度及其以上的泥石流沟,应该按照高等级设防标准进行工程治理及发布预警报。同时也说明,将滑坡、泥石流作为灾害链研究具必要性和可行性。     

Seismic Hazard Studies in the U.K.: Source Specification Problems of Intraplate Seismicity

Although the U.K. is in an area of only low to moderate seismicity, the seismic hazard is sufficient to pose a threat to sensitive structures such as chemical plants and nuclear facilities. In quantifying the level of hazard by conventional probabilistic methodology, however, some problems arise in attempting to interpret earthquake data in terms of geological structure and faults. In the U.K., not only is it impossible to identify any demonstrably active faults, but also it is extremely difficult to discern any relationship between the pattern of seismicity and local or regional geological structure.This study discusses the use of two zonation approaches which complement each other in such a way that the general character and trend of seismicity is preserved. In one approach, the zonation is informed by the structural geology, where possible; geological zonation is avoided if it produces sources with heterogeneous seismicity. In the other approach, the record of past earthquakes is divided up into very small zones around individual epicentres or groups of epicentres, the size of each zone usually being proportional to the uncertainty in the epicentral determination of the appropriate event. This zonation preserves an observed tendency of some British earthquakes to repeat themselves. It is suggested that, in intraplate areas such as the U.K., it is often inappropriate to attempt to model individual fault sources. No faults in the U.K. are provably active. Because an earthquake of moderate size can occur on a very short fault segment, it is impractical to restrict fault modelling to major features. Even the two largest U.K. faults, suspected to be active, pose problems in attributing historical seismicity to them as distinct features.     

An estimate of probabilistic seismic hazard for five cities in Greece by using the parametric-historic procedure

A probabilistic procedure was applied to assess seismic hazard for the sites of five Greek cities (Athens, Heraklion, Patras, Thessaloniki and Volos) using peak ground acceleration as the hazard parameter. The methodology allows the use of either historical or instrumental data, or a combination of both. It has been developed specifically for the estimation of seismic hazard at a given site and does not require any specification of seismic sources or/and seismic zones. A new relation for the attenuation of peak ground acceleration was employed for the shallow seismicity in Greece. The computations involved the area- and site-specific parts. When assessing magnitude recurrence for the areas surrounding the five cities, the maximum magnitude, m_max, was estimated using a recently derived equation. The site-specific results were expressed as probabilities that a given peak ground acceleration value will be exceeded at least once during a time interval of 1, 50 and 100 years at the sites of the cities. They were based on the maximum peak ground acceleration values computed by assuming the occurrence of the strongest possible earthquake (of magnitude m_max) at a very short distance from the site and using the mean value obtained with the help of the attenuation law. This gave 0.24 g for Athens, 0.53 g for Heraklion (shallow) and 0.39 g Heraklion (intermediate-depth seismicity), 0.30 g for Patras, 0.35 g for Thessaloniki and 0.30 g for Volos. In addition, the probabilities of exceedance of the estimated maximum peak ground acceleration values were calculated for the sites. The standard deviation of the new Greek attenuation law demonstrates the uncertainty and large variation of predicted peak ground acceleration values.     

A Case Study of the Spatial Distribution of Seismic Hazard (El Salvador)

The republic of El Salvador in Central America is an area of high seismic hazard where at least twelve destructive earthquakes have occurred this century alone. The principal sources of seismic hazard are earthquakes associated with the subduction of the Cocos plate in the Middle America Trench and upper-crustal earthquakes in the chain of Quaternary volcanoes that runs across the country parallel to the subduction trench. Hazard assessments for Central America have suggested almost uniform distribution of hazard throughout El Salvador. Seismic zonations for three successive building codes in El Salvador simply divide the country into two regions, with the higher hazard zone containing the volcanoes and the coastal areas. Historical records suggest that the greatest hazard is posed by the upper-crustal earthquakes concentrated on the volcanic centres which, although of smaller magnitude than the subduction events, are generally of shallow focus and coincide with the main population centres. These earthquakes have repeatedly caused intense damage over small areas in the vicinity of some of the main volcanoes. This study focuses on El Salvador to explore the capability of different approaches to hazard assessment to reflect significant variations of seismic hazard within small geographical areas. In the study, three 'zone-free' methods are employed as well as the Cornell–McGuire approach. The results of the assessments are compared and their implications for seismic zoning for construction and insurance purposes are discussed.     

Seismic Ground Motion Expected for the Eastern District of Naples

The seismic ground motion of a test area in the eastern district of Naples is computed with a hybrid technique based on the mode summation and the finite difference methods. This technique allows us the realistic modelling of source and propagation effects, including local soil conditions. In the modelling, we consider the 1980 Irpinia earthquake, a good example of strong shaking for the area of Naples, which is located about 90 km from the epicenter.The detailed geological setting is reconstructed from a large number of drillings. The sub-soil is mainly formed by alluvial (ash, stratified sand and peat) and pyroclastic materials overlying a pyroclastic rock (yellow neapolitan tuff), representing the neapolitan bedrock. The detailed information available on mechanical properties of the sub-soil and its geometry warrants the application of the sophisticated hybrid technique.As expected, the sedimentary cover causes an increase of the signal's amplitudes and duration. If thin peat layers are present, the amplification effects are reduced, and the peak ground accelerations are similar to those observed for the bedrock model. This can be explained by the backscattering of wave energy at such layers, that tend to seismically decouple the upper from the lower part of the structure.For SH-waves, the influence of the variations of the S-wave velocities on the spectral amplification is studied, by considering locally measured velocities and values determined from near-by down-hole measurements. The comparison between the computed spectral amplifications confirms the key role of an accurate determination of the seismic velocities of the different layers.The comparison performed between a realistic 2-D seismic response and a standard 1-D response, based on the vertical propagation of waves in a plane layered structure, shows considerable difference, from which it is evident that serious caution must be taken in the modelling of expected ground motion at a specific site.     

液化场地桩-土-桥梁结构地震相互作用简化分析方法

液化场地桩-土-桥梁结构地震相互作用分析属于桩基桥梁抗震设计中的一个关键科学问题,而目前尚缺乏合理的简化分析方法。鉴于此,直接针对振动台试验,基于Penzien模型,建立了液化场地桩-土-桥梁结构地震相互作用的数值分析模型与相应的简化分析方法。通过振动台试验验证了数值建模途径与简化计算分析方法的正确性,可用于液化场地桩基桥梁结构地震反应的分析,并且特别考虑砂层中孔压升高引起的砂土承载力衰减效应,推荐了计算参数的合理选取方法;据此进行了桩径、桩土初始模量比、砂土内摩擦角、上部桥梁结构质量等重要参数对液化场地桩-土地震相互作用影响的敏感性分析。研究表明：在液化场地条件下,随桩径和桩土初始模量比的增大,桩的峰值加速度、峰值位移减小,而桩的峰值弯矩则增大;随砂土内摩擦角增大,桩的峰值加速度、峰值弯矩、峰值应力均增大,而桩的峰值位移则减小;随上部结构配重增大,桩的峰值位移、峰值弯矩均增大。