社会-生态弹性视角下的历史气候变化影响社会发展机制

过去全球变化（PAGES）研究高度关注的热点领域之一是各个时间尺度上的气候变化如何影响人类社会发展,其目的不仅是为了尽最大可能地还历史本真,更重要地是为了揭示具有一般意义的过程与机理并以史为鉴。社会-生态弹性是人类社会的内在属性,可以理解为人类社会忍受各种环境变化、社会、经济与政治动荡冲击的能力,弹性理论能够很好地阐释历史气候变化影响的过程与机制。本文尝试以此为视角,结合中外历史案例,对"历史气候变化如何影响社会发展"问题进行探讨,主要结论如下：1）气候变化对人类社会的影响与社会-生态弹性状态有关,如果气候变化影响仅突破人类社会某一子系统的弹性阈值,整个人类社会仍可通过其他子系统的适应性调整继续维持稳定;2）历史气候变化影响的5种表现形式与社会-生态弹性状态的关系是,人类社会对气候变化敏感但未突破弹性阈值时表现为周期波动或脉冲式变化,适宜性转型或崩溃发生在气候变化影响突破人类社会的弹性阈值的情况下;而迁徙-替代不论气候变化影响是否突破弹性阈值均可发生;3）人类社会可通过适应气候变化过程中的社会学习和创新增强甚至在更高水平上重构社会-生态弹性。     

全球气候变化及其影响

全球气候变化及其对社会与自然系统产生的影响已日益受到全世界各国政府与广大民众的关注。与天气和气候有关的灾害给人类生命财产造成的损失日益增大,社会与生态系统似乎变得日趋脆弱。人们关心刚刚过去的20世纪的天气与气候发生了什么变化,更希望了解未来的21世纪,人类居住的地球会出现什么样的气候情景。根据一些国家和地区的观测记录、研究成果以及科学家们对气候变化的评估与预测展望,对全球气候变化问题进行概括。首先阐明20世纪地区性气候变化的事实;并根据政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)科学技术报告中关于20世纪全球气候变化进行的总结性评估以及对21世纪全球气候变化的预测,作为阐述过去与未来全球气候变化的主要依据。同时,还介绍了一些科学家对IPCC关于全球气候变化的结论所持的不同观点或质疑。还就气候变化对社会与自然系统可能产生的影响略作论述。     

中国历史时期气候变化对社会发展的影响*

历史时期气候变化对社会发展的影响与人类适应问题,是当前全球变化领域的研究热点之一。近年来,在利用丰富的历史文献资料研究中国历史时期(特别是过去2000年时段)气候变化与人类社会相互作用的过程机理方面取得了一系列新成果。本文将其归纳为3个方面: 理论上,构建了基于粮食安全的气候影响传递过程分析框架;方法上,实现了服务于气候变化影响研究的、基于语义差异的历史社会经济序列定量重建;科学认识上,总结出“冷抑暖扬”而又福祸相依的宏观韵律。在此基础上,对未来研究需要进一步深化的方向进行了展望。     

中国冰川变化对气候变化的响应程度研究

理清冰川变化对气候变化的响应程度、揭示响应度的空间变化规律,是开展冰川变化预估及其对社会经济影响程度量化研究的基础。使用1958-2010年西部地区150个气象站点的夏季平均气温和年降水量资料、中国第一、二次冰川编目数据,通过夏季平均气温和年降水量变化趋势值定量反映气候变化,以冰川面积变化率表征冰川变化,借助GIS技术平台,采用参照对比方法,从宏观层面研究了中国西部冰川变化对气候变化的响应程度。依据等分分类法（Equal Interval）,将响应程度分为极低度响应、低度响应、中度响应、高度响应、极高度响应5级。结果表明：中国冰川变化对气候变化的响应方式与程度不同,对夏季平均气温变化表现为正响应,而对年降水量变化主要表现为负响应,冰川分布区年降水量增加带来的冰川积累量增多不足以抵消因温度升高而增加的消融量,升温是中国西部冰川快速退缩的主导性因素。就整体而言,冰川变化对夏季平均气温变化的响应程度相对较低,但局部地区冰川变化对温度变化高度敏感,响应程度高与极高。不同类型冰川的变化对夏季平均气温变化的响应程度亦不同,海洋型冰川的变化以中高度响应为主,极大陆型冰川的变化主要呈现极低、低响应程度,而大陆型冰川变化的响应程度呈两级化。     

中国天山地区降水对全球气候变化的响应

天山地区的降水变化及其对全球气候变化的响应是近年来研究的热点。利用中国天山地区40个气象站1951-2014年的月降水数据,运用线性倾向估计、相关分析等气候诊断方法,分析了该区域的降水变化,探讨了主要气候指数与降水同步变化的相关关系。结果表明：年降水呈现出"西多东少,北多南少,高山多外围少"的特征,年降水变化率为6.0 mm·（10a）^-1。SASMI与年降水表现为显著正相关,PDO、PNA和AO与年降水表现为弱正相关,且有局限性。在枯水期,SASMI与天山北坡及部分中高山地带的降水表现为弱正相关,而在西天山南坡表现为弱负相关,ENSO与中、西天山南北坡的中低山带的降水变化相关性较高。在丰水期,SASMI与天山南坡和高山区降水变化相关性较高,PDO与中、西天山南北坡的低山带部分站点的降水变化相关性较高。     

Energy sector policies in Botswana and their implications for global climate change

Like most African countries, Botswana contributes almost insignificantly to global greenhouse emissions (GHGs). In this context, some have argued that energy policy and legislative measures to regulate emissions in Botswana should not be accorded high priority. This is a misguided view when one considers that each country, no matter how under-industrialized, contributes to the overall global emission problem. Moreover, the least developed countries will have to industrialize in order to meet the increasing economic and social needs of their growing populations. For rapidly growing economies like Botswana, whose annual energy demand is projected to increase by about 4% for the next ten years, the importance of compiling accurate inventories of sources and sinks of GHGs and formulating environmentally-friendly policies can hardly be over- emphasized. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) provides the ideal basis for the country-by-country investigations and management of global climatic change; specifically its nature, properties, directionality, characteristics and probable consequences. Botswana was a founding signatory of UNFCCC in 1992 and ratified the Convention in 1994. The country is also involved in regional cooperation efforts, within the Southern African Development Community, to enforce regulatory mechanisms to minimize GHG emissions from the energy sector. There exist certain energy-related institutions, policies, and regulations in the country which could mitigate the impact of GHG emissions on global warming. This paper, based on government and other relevant documentation, critically analyses Botswana's energy sector policies in as far as they affect climate change. It is clear that much still needs to be done about energy policies in terms of proper formulation, monitoring, co-ordination, energy pricing and the exploration of energy alternatives to mitigate potentially negative impacts on climate change.     

海河流域河川径流对气候变化的响应机理

利用可变下渗容量(Variable Infiltration Capacity,VIC)模型,在海河流域选取了6个典型流域来率定VIC模型的参数。通过模型参数移植技术,建立了全流域的径流模拟平台。根据假定的气候变化情景,分析了海河流域河川径流对气候变化的响应机理。结果表明:在年平均气温升高2℃时,海河流域的径流量将减少6.5%;当年降水量增加或者减少10%时,海河流域的径流量将分别增加26%和减少23%;当汛期降水占年降水量的比例分别增加或者减少10%时,全流域的径流量将会增加12%或者减少7%;在空间上,在年平均气温升高和年降水量变化的情景下,海河流域西北部的河川径流比东南部更敏感;在降水年内分配变化的情景下,海河流域东南部的河川径流比西北部更敏感。总体上,年降水量越大,径流量对降水量的敏感性越小,对平均气温的敏感性也越小,而对降水年内分配的敏感性越大。     

Dynamics of the East African climate

Results of studies on regional climatic trends and the factors controlling the regional climate have been discussed in this paper. Potential impact of impending climatic change on the natural resources and socio-economic activities has also been projected. Well-recognised systems which control the space-time variation of rainfall and temperature over the region include the space time characteristics of (i) Intertropical convergence Zone (ITCZ), (ii) Monsoonal wind systems (iii) Subtropical anticyclones (iv) Tropical cyclones (v) Jetstreams (vi) Easterly/Westerly wave perturbations (vii) Extra-tropical weather systems (viii) Quasi-biennial oscillations and ENSO events with their telelinks. No statistically significant trends have been observed in the inter-annual characteristics of rainfall at most of the locations. Apart from urbanization signals from the large urban centres, no statistically significant trends have been observed in the temporal temperature patterns over the region. Inter-annual variation of temperature is seen to be inversely associated with rainfall which in turn is also associated with ENSO signals. However, data of mountain glaciers has shown depletion of glaciers but, the river flow data has not shown any decreasing trend so far. The lake levels also reflect only the inter-annual variations attributable to wet and dry conditions.     

Greenhouse gases mitigation against climate change: United States-Mexico border study case

Solar radiation is one of the most important energy resources of our planet. The interest in its use as a renewable and clean energy to mitigate the greenhouse gases (GHG) effects has increased significantly. This paper evaluates the measurements of global solar radiation and its energy potential and presents a comparison between both of them, as an example of the effort to reduce GHG emissions. The measurements were made with pyranometers installed in the city of Mexicali, Baja California, located in northwestern Mexico, and the city of Yuma, Arizona, located in the southwestern United States. Separated by a distance of 96 km, both cities have a sustained development and are climatically similar, since they present numerous sunny days, extreme hot temperatures and little precipitation. The results presented show differences in their behavior and in the solar radiation measurement values, especially for the critical spring and summer seasons, with values 15.73% (0.042 kW/m²) higher in Mexicali with respect to Yuma. Energy power is estimated, and it is discussed with some variables as global solar radiation, rainfall, air temperature, relative humidity and climatology of clear, partly cloudy, and cloudy days. With this estimation, the solar energy used and GHG avoided is projected for Mexicali. It is assessed that 291 tons of GHG are prevented. The Mexicali values of potential energy are higher than those of Yuma; therefore, this solar and energy comparative study provides reasons to develop these technologies in Mexico, but solar technologies should be deployed also in Yuma. The measured data at the regional level demonstrate their importance, and the relevance of the proposed mitigation strategy for climate change.     

青海柴达木盆地巴音河上游径流量对气候变化和人类活动的响应

基于1959-2013年径流量及气象数据,运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、R/S分析、累积量斜率变化率等方法,分析了青海柴达木盆地巴音河上游径流的年际变化、年内分配、变化趋势及其周期性,定量评估了降水变化和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率。结果表明：巴音河上游径流量以0.2×10⁸ m³·（10a）^-1倾向率呈显著上升趋势,Hurst指数为0.78,存在20 a左右的丰平枯变化周期,21世纪流域进入丰水期;径流量变化以21～22 a的年代际变化周期最为显著,同时存在10～11 a的年际变化主周期;径流量年内分配不均匀,集中于夏秋两季,径流量呈现先增后减的单波峰分布特点,进入21世纪,年内最大月径流量呈现向后推迟的趋势,年内分配趋于集中;径流突变发生在2001年,降水对巴音河上游径流量增加的贡献率为83.06%,人类活动的贡献率为16.94%。因此,气候是影响巴音河上游河流径流变化的主要因素,人类活动的影响次之。研究结果对巴音河流域未来水资源开发利用和生态环境保护有一定的指导和借鉴意义。     

气候变化背景下淮河流域场次暴雨事件时空演变分析

全球气候变化对暴雨洪涝等极端天气事件的发生产生了显著影响,识别气候变化背景下暴雨事件的时空变化特征是暴雨洪涝灾害综合应对的关键.以淮河流域为研究区,基于流域内229个气象站点1950-2012年的实测逐小时降水数据,遵循淮河流域实际情况对暴雨事件进行场次划分,并以此作为基础统计单元,借助地理信息系统平台,运用统计学方法并结合气象学理论,以场次暴雨事件开始时间、达到雨强峰值历时、场次平均暴雨历时及暴雨事件发生频次4个指标分析不同年代背景下淮河流域场次暴雨事件发生的过程变化及时空演变特征.结果表明：在气候变化的背景下,场次暴雨发生时间呈现宽幅化和极值化的变化趋势,暴雨发生时间出现了后移和双峰化的特征;暴雨历时及到达雨强峰值历时均呈现增加趋势,整个流域场次暴雨事件在1990s-2000s进入一个增加时期;全球性的气候变化使流域内暴雨事件发生的频次不断增加,历时不断增大,长历时高频次特征明显,尤其是近20 a来,淮河流域暴雨事件高发区域呈现出从流域部分地区向全流域扩张的趋势.     

青藏高原多年冻土活动层厚度对气候变化的响应

活动层厚度变化将会对多年冻土区生态系统、地气间能水平衡和碳循环等产生重要影响。利用Stefan公式模拟了1981-2010年青藏高原多年冻土区活动层厚度的分布和空间变化特征。结果表明：多年冻土区活动层厚度平均为2.39 m,活动层厚度在羌塘盆地最小,在多年冻土区边缘、祁连山、西昆仑山、念青唐古拉山活动层厚度较大。在气候变化条件下,青藏高原多年冻土区活动层厚度呈整体增大趋势,在1981-2010年,活动层厚度的变化量为-1.54~2.24 m,变化率为-5.90~10.13 cm·a^-1,平均每年变化1.29 cm。活动层增厚趋势与年平均气温增大的趋势基本一致,这说明气候变化对活动层厚度变化有很大的影响。     

1979~2010年和墨洛绿洲区地下水时空演变与归因

地下水系统的演变机制对干旱区地下水资源的可持续管理至关重要。基于地下水观测数据、水文地质资料、气象资料和灌溉用水的统计数据,运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、地质统计学和地下水储量计算法,研究了和田河流域1979~2010年地下水埋深和储量的时空变化,并应用灰色关联法分析了地下水时空演变的影响因素。结果表明：1979~2010年和墨洛绿洲地下水埋深呈增大趋势,枯水季增大趋势略大于丰水季。30年间地下水储量减小的平均速率为2567×10⁴m³/a,尤其是2004年以后地下水储量锐减,2004~2010年地下水储量的平均减小速率是1979~2004年的8.16倍。从空间分布上,地下水埋深增加有从冲洪积扇缘向扇顶递减的趋势。地下水埋深增大、地下水储量递减主要是由于灌溉面积增加导致地下水开采增加引起的,人类活动对地下水均衡变化的作用大于自然要素的影响。可持续的绿洲农业水资源管理,是维持绿洲地下水安全的关键。

     

An essay on the interactions between climate and society

There has been increasing concern about the lack of involvement by social scientists and humanists in a global change program, although many social scientists are already directly involved in various aspects of research on environmental change, and their research interests are clearly central to a global change research agenda. Based on a historical review, the role of social science disciplines as well as social science institutes in an emerging multidecadal global change program is discussed. Both “plan of action” and “plan of inaction” are suggested to avoid potential pitfalls due to the rush development of a social science program into the existing global climate change problem.     

Estimations of climate change impacts on crop production in the Republic of Moldova

Statistical methods for assessing crop sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change in Moldova were demonstrated and the following procedures were discussed: (1) projections of likely agroclimatic change; (2) assessments of crop sensitivity to climate change; and (3) assessments of the impact of climate change on crops. In order to predict the future agroclimate, key meteorological variables were transformed statistically to correspond to changes in plants' heat and water supply characteristics. Sensitivity of crop production was examined for corn and winter wheat. By combining the agroclimatic changes with crop response, possible impacts have been estimated and form a basis for possible adaptation strategies. It was shown that regional climate change can result in elevated aridity of Moldova's territory, especially during periods of crop growth. Cultivation of cereal crops in new agroclimatic conditions without adaptation measures will negatively affect yields, especially of winter wheat, whose yield decrease may be 18–39% by 2020s and 22–50% by 2050s. Corn yields may increase by 0–3% and 1–6%, respectively. As an example of adaptation, it is shown that the use of an increased number of late hybrids results in a 25–35% increase in corn yields. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

祁连山老虎沟流域强消融期径流对气候变化的响应

为定量研究老虎沟流域径流对气候变化的响应,利用老虎沟流域1959年和2014年强消融期（7月）的气象、径流数据,分析了强消融期气温、降水、蒸发、冰川消融量、径流（流域的径流深）等的变化,进而探讨了老虎沟流域强消融期气温分布和降水形态、流域蒸发和冰川消融对径流的影响。结果表明：老虎沟流域2014年强消融期径流比1959年多159 mm,增加了49.67%。2014年7月平均气温较1959年升高0.38℃,最低气温升高1.34℃。1959年和2014年7月降水量相差较小;老虎沟流域强消融期日降水和日径流之间呈负相关,蒸发量的变化较小,流域内祁连山站的混合态降水比例减少23.01%,导致降水转化为径流的比例增大;起决定性作用的是正积温, 2014年7月较1959年的正积温高11.71℃·d,主要由于2~4℃的气温日数增多导致正积温增加,从而加剧冰川消融对径流的补给。     

中国不同气候区河川径流对气候变化的敏感性

利用一个简单的月水量平衡模型,模拟了位于中国不同气候区的21个典型流域的径流量过程,采用假定的气候情景,分析了河川径流量对不同气候变化的敏感性。结果表明,所采用的月水量平衡模型能够较好地模拟不同气候区的月流量过程,21个典型流域的Nash-Sutcliffe模型效率系数大多超过65%,水量平衡误差也均控制在1%以内。黄河以北干旱半干旱地区的典型流域径流量对气温和降水变化的响应敏感,其次为华中、华南半湿润区和湿润区,西部高寒山区径流对气候变化的响应最弱。因此,中国适应气候变化的重点应集中在干旱半干旱地区。     

利用反向法评价气候变化下的水资源系统风险

目前多数研究直接将大气环流模式(GCM)获得的气候要素输入水文模型或者系统动力学模型评价气候变化所引起的风险,而忽视了一些重要统计要素的实际影响。针对目前研究存在的问题,利用随机模型产生大量模拟数据并输入到关于水资源系统的系统动力模型,通过评价指数和模拟数据间的统计关系建立"气候响应模型",最终利用多种大气环流模式来进行风险评价。通过A2气候变化情景下36种GCM对美国麻州Quabbin水库未来两个时段2036—2065年和2066—2095年由气候变化引起的风险进行评价。结果表明,在1950—1999年流域净流量年际方差100%～140%范围内,2036—2065年的风险为0.25～0.30,2066—2095年的风险为0.30～0.45。     

Climate change research in central and eastern Europe

Climate change presents both threats and opportunities to the nations and peoples of central and eastern Europe. National and international programs are directly addressing climate change, and other programs speak to natural resource and environmental quality issues that will have significant effects on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. This paper explores examples of ongoing climate change activity in the region, setting a broad context for the subsequent papers in this volume ofGeoJournal. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

青藏高原气候变化若干前沿科学问题

在全球变化的背景下,青藏高原冰冻圈和大气圈正在发生快速变化,对"亚洲水塔"和"第三极"的生态环境带来深刻影响.研究并梳理了近年来青藏高原气候变化的若干前沿科学问题的研究进展,如高原极端气候事件变化及其与大气环流的关系;高原变暖放大效应及海拔依赖型变暖的物理机制;再分析资料在高原气候变化应用的适用性;气候模式在高原资料稀...