中国近50年来群发性高温事件的识别及统计特征

本文提出一种简化的识别群发性气候事件方法,对近50多年来全国群发性高温事件识别结果表明该方法物理意义明确,客观有效,符合实际.通过对近50年来群发性高温事件统计发现,不论是从发生频数、持续时间、影响站数还是综合强度来看,2000年以后的群发性高温事件都是5个年代中最显著的.与此同时,群发性高温事件具有明显的区域特征,长江以南地区发生频率最高,其次为黄河下游华北地区,以新疆为主的西北地区亦是多发区,各个区域群发性高温事件在不同月份的分布差异体现了我国季风雨带移动及下垫面的影响.     

Hydrological analysis of extreme rainfall events and severe rainstorms over Uttarakhand,India

ABSTRACT

Following the June 2013 disaster in the Uttarakhand Himalayas, many discussions are ongoing with regard to how climate change is seeking revenge on mankind by endowing us with disasters! The event was mostly linked with the occurrence of an extreme event due to climate change. In view of this, an attempt has been made in this paper to analyse the extreme rainfall events experienced by the Uttarakhand during 1901–2013 using more than 100 stations’ daily rainfall data. The study revealed that during the 113-year period, the highest numbers of extreme events were recorded during the decade 1961–1970, and to some extent in the decade 1981–1990. Thereafter, there is a decrease in extreme rainfall events. The comparative study of extreme events prior to 1901 showed that on 17–18 September 1880, a rainstorm which occurred in close vicinity to Uttarakhand caused serious floods and damage to lives and properties. The extreme rainfall recorded by some stations during this unprecedented rainstorm has not been surpassed to date.     

Comprehensive indices of early judgement for earthquake sequence type by pattern recognition

This subject is one in the Eighth Five-year Plan of the SSB, China.     

An improvement on the method of the pattern recognition ICHAM and its application

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Exploring the effect of data assimilation by WRF‐3DVar for numerical rainfall prediction with different types of storm events

The mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model is gaining popularity among the hydrometeorological community in providing high‐resolution rainfall forecasts at the catchment scale. Although the performance of the model has been verified in capturing the physical processes of severe storm events, the modelling accuracy is negatively affected by significant errors in the initial conditions used to drive the model. Several meteorological investigations have shown that the assimilation of real‐time observations, especially the radar data can help improve the accuracy of the rainfall predictions given by mesoscale NWP models. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of data assimilation for hydrological applications at the catchment scale. Radar reflectivity together with surface and upper‐air meteorological observations is assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using the three‐dimensional variational data‐assimilation technique. Improvement of the rainfall accumulation and its temporal variation after data assimilation is examined for four storm events in the Brue catchment (135.2 km²) located in southwest England. The storm events are selected with different rainfall distributions in space and time. It is found that the rainfall improvement is most obvious for the events with one‐dimensional evenness in either space or time. The effect of data assimilation is even more significant in the innermost domain which has the finest spatial resolution. However, for the events with two‐dimensional unevenness of rainfall, i.e. the rainfall is concentrated in a small area and in a short time period, the effect of data assimilation is not ideal. WRF fails in capturing the whole process of the highly convective storm with densely concentrated rainfall in a small area and a short time period. A shortened assimilation time interval together with more efficient utilisation of the weather radar data might help improve the effectiveness of data assimilation in such cases. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical analysis of simultaneous heat and mass transfer during infiltration into frozen ground

This paper concerns heat transfer and water infiltration into a homogeneous, unsaturated, frozen soil. A numerical analysis of the processes, which is based on the local volume averaging formulation of transport phenomena in porous media, is described. Simultaneous heat and mass transfers with phase changes are considered. The results of the simulations provide an insight into the mechanics of the infiltration process. They suggest that infiltration involves primarily two flow regimes, a transient regime and a quasi-steady-state regime. Once the quasi-steady-state regime is reached, the energy needed to increase soil temperature at depth is supplied by latent heat released from freezing of water in the upper layers of soil. The effects of surface saturation, initial soil saturation and initial soil temperature on infiltration are examined.     

Hydroclimate variability and long-lead forecasting of rainfall over Thailand by large-scale atmospheric variables

Abstract

The development of statistical relationships between local hydroclimates and large-scale atmospheric variables enhances the understanding of hydroclimate variability. The rainfall in the study basin (the Upper Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand) is influenced by the Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean atmospheric circulation. Using correlation analysis and cross-validated multiple regression, the large-scale atmospheric variables, such as temperature, pressure and wind, over given regions are identified. The forecasting models using atmospheric predictors show the capability of long-lead forecasting. The modified k-nearest neighbour (k-nn) model, which is developed using the identified predictors to forecast rainfall, and evaluated by likelihood function, shows a long-lead forecast of monsoon rainfall at 7–9 months. The decreasing performance in forecasting dry-season rainfall is found for both short and long lead times. The developed model also presents better performance in forecasting pre-monsoon season rainfall in dry years compared to wet years, and vice versa for monsoon season rainfall.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Singhrattna, N., Babel, M.S. and Perret, S.R., 2012. Hydroclimate variability and long-lead forecasting of rainfall over Thailand by large-scale atmospheric variables. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 26–41.     

Modelling of nitrate leaching from arable land into unsaturated soil and chalk 2. Model confirmation and application to agricultural and sewage sludge management

A layered deterministic N-leaching model, IMPACT, has been calibrated using data from two study sites on the unconfined Chalk aquilfer of East Anglia, UK. The model predicts nitrogen species movement resulting from the application of sewage sludges and fertilizers to arable land for different vegetation-soil-hydrogeological conditions. One site received sludge in the form of digested sewage cake (DSC) for the first time during the study period, whilst the other site had over 15 years history of liquid undigested sludge (LUS) applications at 3 year intervals. Site data included: 3-monthly concentration profiles at 0.3 m intervals to depths of up to 6 m for N-species and chloride; unsaturated potential measurements; water level and saturated groundwater solute concentrations, fertilizer and sludge input; daily recharge, and soil/chalk type and moisture content. The observed average movement rate for nitrate peaks in the Lower Chalk, measured at one site, was 0.2 m year⁻². Leachate peaks were not observed annually but approximately every third year, being associated with large sludge applications and ploughing of grass crops. Significant correlation between observed and modelled nitrate profiles in soil and chalk were obtained which demonstrated applications. The relationship between crop demand, application times of fertilizers and sludge, nitrate availability and recharge was shown strongly to control the shape of nitrate profiles in the soil and chalk and the quantity of nitrate leached tochalk. The change in hydrogeological conditions at the soil-chalk contact and associated potential for denitrification was also shown to exert a significant control on the shape of the nitrate profile. Following calibration, different arable crop and sludge application regimes were examined for a 6 year period and ranked according to their nitrate leaching risk. Of the modelled cereal farming scenarios, the crop/sludge regime giving the least nitrate leaching was a late autumn surface spread application of DSC followed by winter cereals, while highest nitrate leaching was generated by an autumn injection of LUS followed by spring cereals. Field and modelled results may be used in the development of sludge disposal policies to arable land particularly with regard to sludge types, application times, and following crop types and fertilizer requirements. Overall, observed and model data demonstrate the importance of examining nitrate leaching as a continuum from the soil through the chalk to the water table.     

Modelling of nitrate leaching from arable land into unsaturated soil and chalk 1. Development of a management model for applications of sewage sludge and fertilizer

A mathematical model has been produced to examine the impact of sewage sludge and fertilizer application to arable land and the effect of different crop regimes on the amount of nitrate leached to chalk groundwater. Previous work on nitrate leaching has concentrated on either a soil science or a hydrogeological approach with little overlap between the two. This study considered both fields to obtain an overall picture of the nitrate leaching process. IMPACT is a layered deterministic N-leaching model which predicts the nitrogen loads entering groundwater daily from arable land, and can be used as a management tool in development of sludge application and agricultural policy. The model relates nitrogen species movement resulting from the application of sewage sludge and fertilizer to differing vegetation-soil-hydrogeological conditions. Field data collected at three sites on the unconfined chalk aquifer of East Anglia, England over a two and a half year period was used to produce an initial conceptual model and to constrain the mathematical model during development. IMPACT simulates nitrogen and transport processes in the soil and unsaturated zone of the chalk. The nitrogen processes include: mineralisation of soil organic-N and sewage sludge organic-N, nitrification; crop uptake; volatilization; denitrification; and N inputs from fertilizers and precipitation. A mixing cell method is used to model solute transport in both the soil and chalk. Matrix flow and combined fissure-matrix flow are considered for the chalk. The model enables examination of the relationship between the arable/hydrogeological systems and the environmental implications of sludge application and of different arable regimes. Results are of use in developing strategies for arable farming and sludge application in areas sensitive to nitrate leaching. This Part 1 paper describes the model development approach. Results of associated modelling scenarios are presented separately in the associated Part 2 paper.     

Measurement of fluid contents and wetting front profiles by real-time neutron radiography

Few methods exist for measuring rapidly changing fluid contents at the pore scale that simultaneously allow whole flow field visualization. We present a method for using real-time neutron radiography to measure rapidly changing moisture profiles in porous media. The imaging technique monitors the attenuation of a thermal neutron beam as it traverses a flow field and provides measurements every 30 ms with an image area >410 cm² and a spatial resolution 0.05 cm. The technique is illustrated by measuring the variation in moisture content across a wetting front moving at constant velocity through SiO₂ sand. The relative contributions of the hydraulic conductivity and diffusivity terms in Richards' equation to the total fluid flux within the wetting front region were also measured. The diffusivity was found to rise from zero to a peak value within the wetting front region before falling off while the conductivity was found to rise monotonically. The reliability of the technique was checked via mass balance.