Analysis of Air Quality in Eastern China and its Interaction with Other Regions of the World

In this study, we used satellite data (GOME and MOPITT) together with a global chemical-transport-model of atmosphere (MOZART-2) to characterize the chemical/aerosol composition over eastern China. We then estimated the effects of local emissions in China on the chemical budgets in other regions of the world. Likewise, we also investigated the effects of air pollution from other regions on the chemical budget over eastern China. The study shows that the column CO and NO _x concentrations are also high in eastern China. The high CO and NO _x concentrations produce modest levels of O₃ concentrations during summer (about 40 to 50 ppbv) and very low O₃ during winter (about 10 to 20 ppbv) in eastern China. The calculated NO₂ column is fairly consistent from the GOME measurement. The calculated CO column is underestimated from the MOPITT measurement. One of the reasons of the underestimation of the predicted CO is due to a fact that the CO emissions were taken without considering the rapid increase of emissions from 1990 to 2000. The calculated surface O₃ is consistent with the measured values, with strong seasonal variations. However, the measurement is very limited, and more measurements in eastern China will be needed. The column NO₂ has a very strong seasonal variation in eastern China, with the highest concentrations during winter and the lowest concentrations during summer. The cause of this seasonal variability is mainly due to the seasonal changes in the chemical loss of NO _x , which is very high in summer and very low during winter. The effects of the local emissions in China and long-range transport from other regions on the chemical distributions in eastern China are studied. The results show that NO _x concentrations in eastern China are mostly caused by the local emissions in China, especially during the winter. The CO concentration over eastern China is from both the local emissions (30% to 40%) and the transport from other regions. Likewise, the CO emissions in China have an important effect on the other regions of the world, but the effect is limited in the northern hemisphere. The local emissions in China also have an important effect on surface O₃ concentrations. During winter, the local emissions reduce the surface O₃ concentrations by 30 to 50%. During summer, the local emissions produce about 50 to 70% of the O₃ concentration in eastern China.     

Estimated N2O and CO2 Emissions as Influenced by Agricultural Practices in Canada

The Denitrification-Decompostion (DNDC) model was used to estimate the impact of change in management practices on N₂O emissions in seven major soil regions in Canada, for the period 1970 to 2029. Conversion of cultivated land to permanent grassland would result in the greatest reduction in N₂O emissions, particularly in eastern Canada wherethe model estimated about 60% less N₂O emissions for thisconversion. About 33% less N₂O emissions were predicted for a changefrom conventional tillage to no-tillage in western Canada, however, a slight increase in N₂O emissions was predicted for eastern Canada. GreaterN₂O emissions in eastern Canada associated with the adoption of no-tillage were attributed to higher soil moisture causing denitrification, whereas the lower emissions in western Canada were attributed to less decomposition of soil organic matter in no-till versus conventional tilled soil. Elimination of summer fallow in a crop rotation resulted in a 9% decrease in N₂O emissions, with substantial emissions occurringduring the wetter fallow years when N had accumulated. Increasing N-fertilizer application rates by 50% increased average emissions by 32%,while a 50% decrease of N-fertilizer application decreased emissions by16%. In general, a small increase in N₂O emissions was predicted when N-fertilizer was applied in the fall rather than in the spring. Previous research on CO₂ emissions with the CENTURY model (Smith et al.,2001) allowed the quantification of the combined change in N₂O andCO₂ emissions in CO₂ equivalents for a wide range of managementpractices in the seven major soil regions in Canada. The management practices that have the greatest potential to reduce the combined N₂O andCO₂ emissions are conversion from conventional tillage to permanent grassland, reduced tillage, and reduction of summer fallow. The estimated net greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction when changing from cultivated land to permanent grassland ranged from 0.97 (Brown Chernozem) to 4.24 MgCO₂ equiv. ha^–1 y^–1 (BlackChernozem) for the seven soil regions examined. When changing from conventional tillage to no-tillage the net GHG emission reduction ranged from 0.33 (Brown Chernozem) to 0.80 Mg CO₂ equiv. ha^–1 y^–1 (Dark GrayLuvisol). Elimination of fallow in the crop rotation lead to an estimated net GHG emission reduction of 0.43 (Brown Chernozem) to 0.80 Mg CO₂ equiv.ha^–1 y^–1 (Dark Brown Chernozem). The addition of 50% more or 50% less N-fertilizer both resulted in slight increases in combined CO₂ and N₂O emissions. There was a tradeoff in GHG flux with greaterN₂O emissions and a comparable increase in carbon storage when 50% more N-fertilizer was added. The results from this work indicate that conversion of cultivated land to grassland, the conversion from conventional tillage to no-tillage, and the reduction of summerallow in crop rotations could substantially increase C sequestration and decrease net GHG emissions. Based on these results a simple scaling-up scenario to derive the possible impacts on Canada's Kyoto commitment has been calculated.     

Impacts of Future NOx and CO Emissions on Regional Chemistry and Climate over Eastern China

A coupled chemical/dynamical model (SOCOL-SOlar Climate Ozone Links) is applied to study the impacts of future enhanced CO and NOx emissions over eastern China on regional chemistry and climate. The result shows that the increase of CO and NOx emissions has significant effects on regional chemistry, including NOx, CO, O₃, and OH concentrations. During winter, the CO concentration is uniformly increased in the northern hemisphere by about 10 ppbv. During summer, the increase of CO has a regional distribution. The change in O₃, concentrations near eastern China has both strong seasonal and spatial variations. During winter, the surface O₃, concentrations decrease by about 2 ppbv, while during summer they increase by about 2 ppbv in eastern China. The changes of CO, NOx, and O₃, induce important impacts on OH concentrations. The changes in chemistry, especially O₃, induce important effects on regional climate. The analysis suggests that during winter, the surface temperature decreases and air pressure increases in central-eastern China. The changes of temperature and pressure produce decreases in vertical velocity. We should mention that the model resolution is coarse, and the calculated concentrations are generally underestimated when they are compared to measured results. However, because this model is a coupled dynamical/chemical model, it can provide some useful insights regarding the climate impacts due to changes in air pollutant emissions.     

N2O emissions of India: an assessment of temporal, regional and sector trends

This paper estimates the national level trend of India’s N₂O emissions from 1985–2005 and detailed sub-regional (594 districts) level and sector emissions for the year 2005. N₂O emissions are estimated using the latest methodologies (IPCC 2006), disaggregated activity data and indigenized emission factors. The estimates show that India’s N₂O emissions have grown from 144?Gg in 1985 to 267?Gg in 2005 exhibiting a compounded annual growth rate of 3.1%, which has been gradually declining from 4.7% over 1985–1990 to 2.4% over 2000–2005. N-fertilizer application contributed most to N₂O emissions, a 49% share in 2005 compared to 40% in 1985. Sub-regional (district-level) distribution of N₂O emissions showed rising mean and spread over the years, with average emissions per districts increasing from 305?ton N₂O per year in 1990 to 450?tons in 2005. The main reason being increased use of N-fertilizer. However crop selection plays an important role in N₂O emissions and there are crops providing high economic returns but low N-fertilizer requirements. Agriculture sector could contribute considerably to GDP even with very low N₂O emissions. Indian agriculture practices vary widely in input applications and crop yields across states. The gradual transition from traditional to modern agriculture over past two decades has enhanced the intensity of inputs like N-fertilizer. A simple correlation based on 1985–2005 trends shows that, ceteris paribus, a 10% increase in total crop production is accompanied with a 12.4% increase in N-fertilizer application and a 9.7% increase in total N₂O emissions from India.     

Vehicle tax policies and new passenger car CO2 performance in EU member states

This article explores the causes for differences in the average CO₂ emissions intensity of the new passenger car (NPC) fleet in member states (MS) across Europe. Although EU policies mitigating CO₂ emissions from NPCs have been in place since 1999, MS strongly diverge in the absolute amount and relative change in emissions over the last decade. The authors employ a qualitative approach to analyse the factors, in particular national vehicle taxes, contributing to this divergence and the relative contribution of national and European policies in reducing national CO₂ emissions from NPCs. The analysis shows that there has been a significant reduction in CO₂ emissions intensity of NPCs since 2007 across most MS, compared with the six years previous to that date. This would indicate that EU-wide policies, such as the CO₂ vehicles regulation, along with the economic recession in 2008, have influenced national NPC CO₂ emissions. Generally, countries with CO₂-differentiated vehicle taxes are observed as more likely to have achieved greater reductions in CO₂ emissions. However, over the same period there have been many confounding factors, such as economic instability in the EU, that also influence NPC emissions. Using more detailed case study analyses of six countries, the authors find that there is scope for well-designed national vehicle tax policies to drive NPC emissions down further than the EU average. In countries with the highest success rate, such as the Netherlands, the design of the vehicle tax, as part of a well-aligned policy package, has been very important in delivering the biggest reductions in CO₂ emissions from NPCs.

POLICY RELEVANCE

The transport sector continues to be an intractable source of CO₂ emissions. Governments around the world are seeking effective policies to deal with the increase in passenger car CO₂ emissions appropriate to their own circumstances. This article examines the experience of EU MS with CO₂-differentiated vehicle taxes in reducing CO₂ emissions in the context of other national and international contributing factors. It should therefore both be useful to policy makers and contribute to climate policy research in general.     

Simulated Spatial Distribution and Seasonal Variation of Atmospheric Methane over China: Contributions from Key Sources简

We used the global atmospheric chemical transport model,GEOS-Chem,to simulate the spatial distribution and seasonal variation of surface-layer methane （CH4） in 2004,and quantify the impacts of individual domestic sources and foreign transport on CH4 concentrations over China.Simulated surface-layer CH4 concentrations over China exhibit maximum concentrations in summer and minimum concentrations in spring.The annual mean CH4 concentrations range from 1800 ppb over western China to 2300 ppb over the more populated eastern China.Foreign emissions were found to have large impacts on CH4 concentrations over China,contributing to about 85％ of the CH4 concentrations over western China and about 80％ of those over eastern China.The tagged simulation results showed that coal mining,livestock,and waste are the dominant domestic contributors to CH4 concentrations over China,accounting for 36％,18％,and 16％,respectively,of the annual and national mean increase in CH4 concentration from all domestic emissions.Emissions from rice cultivation were found to make the largest contributions to CH4 concentrations over China in the summer,which is the key factor that leads to the maximum seasonal mean CH4 concentrations in summer.     

Estimates of indirect global warming potentials for CH4, CO and NOX

Emissions may affect climate indirectly through chemical interactions in the atmosphere, but quantifications of such effects are difficult and uncertain due to incomplete knowledge and inadequate methods. A preliminary assessment of the climatic impact of changes in tropospheric O₃ and CH₄ in response to various emissions is given. For a 10% increase in the CH₄ emissions the relative increase in concentration has been estimated to be 37% larger. The radiative forcing from enhanced levels of tropospheric O₃ is estimated to 37% of the forcing from changes in CH₄. Inclusion of indirect effects approximately doubles the climatic impact of CH₄ emissions. Emissions of NO_x increase tropospheric O₃, while the levels of CH₄ are reduced. For emissions of NO_x from aircraft, the positive effects via O₃ changes are significantly larger than the negative through changes in CH₄. For NO_x emitted from surface sources, the effects through changes in O₃ and CH₄ are estimated to be of similar magnitude and large uncertainty is connected to the sign of the net effect. Emissions of CO have positive indirect effects on climate through enhanced levels of tropospheric o₃ and increased lifetime of CH₄. These results form the basis for estimates of global warming potentials for sustained step increases in emissions.     

Carbon co-benefits of tighter SO2 and NOx regulations in China

Air pollution has been recognized as a significant problem in China. In its Twelfth Five Year Plan, China proposes to reduce SO₂ and NO_x emissions significantly, and here we investigate the cost of achieving those reductions and the implications of doing so for CO₂ emissions. We extend the analysis through 2050, and either hold emissions policy targets at the level specified in the Plan, or continue to reduce them gradually. We apply a computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy that includes a representation of pollution abatement derived from detailed assessment of abatement technology and costs. We find that China's SO₂ and NO_x emissions control targets would have substantial effects on CO₂ emissions leading to emissions savings far beyond those we estimate would be needed to meet its CO₂ intensity targets. However, the cost of achieving and maintaining the pollution targets can be quite high given the growing economy. In fact, we find that the near term pollution targets can be met while still expanding the use of coal, but if they are, then there is a lock-in effect that makes it more costly to maintain or further reduce emissions. That is, if firms were to look ahead to tighter targets, they would make different technology choices in the near term, largely turning away from increased use of coal immediately.     

A model investigation of the impact of increases in anthropogenic NO x emissions between 1967 and 1980 on tropospheric ozone

Recent observations suggest that the abundance of ozone between 2 and 8 km in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes has increased by about 12% during the period from 1970 to 1981. Earlier estimates were somewhat more conservative suggesting increases at the rate of 7% per decade since the start of regular observations in 1967. Previous photochemical model studies have indicated that tropospheric ozone concentrations would increase with increases in emissions of CO, CH₄ and NO _x . This paper presents an analysis of tropospheric ozone which suggests that a significant portion of its increase may be attributed to the increase in global anthropogenic NO _x emissions during this period while the contribution of CH₄ to the increase is quite small. Two statistical models are presented for estimating annual global anthropogenic emissions of NO _x and are used to derive the trend in the emissions for the years 1966–1980. These show steady increase in the emissions during this interval except for brief periods of leveling off after 1973 and 1978. The impact of this increase in emissions on ozone is estimated by calculations with a onedimensional (latitudinal) model which includes coupled tropospheric photochemistry and diffusive meridional transport. Steady-state photochemical calculations with prescribed NO _x emissions appropriate for 1966 and 1980 indicate an ozone increase of 8–11% in the Northern Hemisphere, a result which is compatible with the rise in ozone suggested by the observations.     

Investigating the Changes in Air Pollutant Emissions over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in February from 2014 to 2019 through an Inverse Emission Method

In recent years, China has implemented several measures to improve air quality. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region is one area that has suffered from the most serious air pollution in China and has undergone huge changes in air quality in the past few years. How to scientifically assess these change processes remain the key issue in further improving the air quality over this region in the future. To evaluate the changes in major air pollutant emissions over this region, this paper employs ens...     

The drivers of Chinese CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2030

China's energy consumption doubled within the first 25 years of economic reforms initiated at the end of the 1970s, and doubled again in the past 5 years. It has resulted of a threefold CO₂ emissions increase since early of 1980s. China's heavy reliance on coal will make it the largest emitter of CO₂ in the world. By combining structural decomposition and input–output analysis we seek to assess the driving forces of China's CO₂ emissions from 1980 to 2030. In our reference scenario, production-related CO₂ emissions will increase another three times by 2030. Household consumption, capital investment and growth in exports will largely drive the increase in CO₂ emissions. Efficiency gains will be partially offset the projected increases in consumption, but our scenarios show that this will not be sufficient if China's consumption patterns converge to current US levels. Relying on efficiency improvements alone will not stabilize China's future emissions. Our scenarios show that even extremely optimistic assumptions of widespread installation of carbon dioxide capture and storage will only slow the increase in CO₂ emissions.     

春季中国东部气溶胶化学组成及其分布的模拟研究

本文利用区域空气质量模式RAQMS（Regional Air Quality Model System）,对2009年春季中国东部气溶胶主要化学成分及其分布进行了模拟研究。与泰山站观测资料的对比结果显示,模式能比较合理地反映气溶胶浓度的逐日变化特征。整体上,模式对无机盐气溶胶的模拟好,分别高估和低估黑碳和有机碳气溶胶浓度,其原因与排放源、二次有机气溶胶化学机制和模式分辨率的不确定性有关。模拟结果显示,春季气溶胶浓度高值主要集中于华北、四川东部、长江中下游等地区。受东南亚生物质燃烧和大气输送的影响,中国的云南和广西等地区有机碳浓度高于中国其他地区。中国西北部沙尘浓度较高,而且向东输送并影响到中国东部和南方部分地区。中国东部的华北、四川东部、长江中下游等地PM_2.5（空气动力学直径在2.5微米以下的颗粒物）污染严重,4月平均PM_2.5浓度超过了我国日平均PM_2.5浓度限值。中国东部泰山站的观测和模拟结果都显示近地面硝酸盐浓度超过硫酸盐,中国北部对流层中硝酸盐的柱含量也大于硫酸盐,而在中国南部则相反,这一方面与春季中国云量 南多北少的分布特征以及云内液相化学反应有关,另一方面也与南北温差对气溶胶形成的影响有关。就整个中国东部而言,虽然硫酸盐的柱含量（46 Gg）仍大于硝酸盐（42 Gg）,但比较接近,反映出我国氮氧化物排放迅速增加的趋势。春季中国地区对流层中PM₁₀（空气动力学直径在10微米以下的颗粒物）及其化学成分柱含量分别为:990.8 Gg（PM₁₀）,52.6 Gg（硫酸盐）,48.2 Gg（硝酸盐）,32.1 Gg（铵盐）,22.9 Gg（黑碳）和74.1 Gg（有机碳）,有机碳（OC）中一次有机碳（POC）和二次有机碳（SOC）分别占60%和40%,中国东部PM₁₀中人为气溶胶和沙尘分别占30%和70%,反映了春季沙尘对我国大气气溶胶的重要贡献。     

The effect of nitrogen fertilization on the COS and CS2 emissions from temperature forest soils

The net fluxes of carbonyl sulfide (COS) and carbon disulfide (CS₂) to the atmosphere from nitrogen amended and unamended deciduous and coniferous forest soils were measured during the spring of 1986. We found that emissions of these gases from acidic forest soils were substantially increased after nitrogen fertilization. The total (COS+CS₂) emissions were increased by nearly a factor of three in the hardwood stand and were more than doubled in the pine stand. Furthermore, vegetation type appeared to have an influence on which was the dominant sulfur gas released from the forest soils. The added nitrogen caused a dramatic increase in COS emissions from the hardwood stand (a factor of three increase), while CS₂ emissions from this site were not affected. We observed the opposite response in the pine stand; that is, the nitrogen fertilization had no affect on COS emissions, but did stimulate CS₂ emissions (a factor of more than nine increase).     

Trace Gas Measurements Between Moscow and Vladivostok Using the Trans-Siberian Railroad

Using a laboratory wagon traveling along the Trans-Siberian railroad, O₃, NO, NO₂, CO, CH₄, SF₆ and black carbon aerosol have been measured during the summer of 1996. The expedition from Niznij Novgorod (500 km east of Moscow) to Vladivostok (and back to Moscow) has shown the great potential of the train method; here the first results are presented and discussed. A wealth of boundary layer air data was obtained during the over 18000 km travel without serious contamination problems from the electric train itself. The diurnal O₃ cycle peaked generally below 50 nmole/mole, showed the effects of changes in J(NO₂), and often dropped to a few nmole/mole at night time during inversions. Over the vast Siberian lowlands situated between the Ural mountains and the river Yenisey, CH₄ levels were consistently elevated at around 1.95 µmole/mole, which we mainly attribute to wetland emissions. Over eastern Siberia, however, CH₄ levels were generally lower at 1.85 µmole/mole. In contrast, over the west Siberian lowlands, CO levels were relatively low, often reaching values of only 110 nmole/mole, whereas over eastern Siberia CO levels were higher. Very high CO levels were detected over a 2000 km section east of Chita, along the river Amur, which represented an enormous polluted air mass. ¹⁴C analysis performed on several CO samples confirms that the origin was biomass burning. SF₆, which was measured as a general conserved tracer, showed an eastward attenuation from 4.0 to 3.9 pmole/mole, with peaks in a number of places due to local Russian emissions.     

Contributions of individual countries?? emissions to climate change and their uncertainty

We have compiled historical greenhouse gas emissions and their uncertainties on country and sector level and assessed their contribution to cumulative emissions and to global average temperature increase in the past and for a the future emission scenario. We find that uncertainty in historical contribution estimates differs between countries due to different shares of greenhouse gases and time development of emissions. Although historical emissions in the distant past are very uncertain, their influence on countries?? or sectors?? contributions to temperature increase is relatively small in most cases, because these results are dominated by recent (high) emissions. For relative contributions to cumulative emissions and temperature rise, the uncertainty introduced by unknown historical emissions is larger than the uncertainty introduced by the use of different climate models. The choice of different parameters in the calculation of relative contributions is most relevant for countries that are different from the world average in greenhouse gas mix and timing of emissions. The choice of the indicator (cumulative GWP weighted emissions or temperature increase) is very important for a few countries (altering contributions up to a factor of 2) and could be considered small for most countries (in the order of 10%). The choice of the year, from which to start accounting for emissions (e.g. 1750 or 1990), is important for many countries, up to a factor of 2.2 and on average of around 1.3. Including or excluding land-use change and forestry or non-CO₂ gases changes relative contributions dramatically for a third of the countries (by a factor of 5 to a factor of 90). Industrialised countries started to increase CO₂ emissions from energy use much earlier. Developing countries?? emissions from land-use change and forestry as well as of CH₄ and N₂O were substantial before their emissions from energy use.     

Dynamics of energy sector and GHG emissions in Saudi Arabia

The energy sector is the main contributor to GHG emissions in Saudi Arabia. The tremendous growth of GHG emissions poses serious challenges for the Kingdom in terms of their reduction targets, and also the mitigation of the associated climate changes. The rising trend of population and urbanization affects the energy demand, which results in a faster rate of increase in GHG emissions. The major energy sector sources that contribute to GHG emissions include the electricity generation, road transport, desalination plants, petroleum refining, petrochemical, cement, iron and steel, and fertilizer industries. In recent years, the energy sector has become the major source, accounting for more than 90% of national CO₂ emissions. Although a substantial amount of research has been conducted on renewable energy resources, a sustainable shift from petroleum resources is yet to be achieved. Public awareness, access to energy-efficient technology, and the development and implementation of a legislative framework, energy pricing policies, and renewable and alternative energy policies are not mature enough to ensure a significant reduction in GHG emissions from the energy sector. An innovative and integrated solution that best serves the Kingdom's long-term needs and exploits potential indigenous, renewable, and alternative energy resources while maintaining its sustainable development stride is essential.

Policy relevance

The main contributor to GHG emissions in Saudi Arabia is the energy sector that accounts for more than 90% of the national CO₂ emissions. Tremendous growth of GHG emissions poses serious challenges for the Kingdom in their reduction and mitigating the associated climate changes. This study examines the changing patterns of different activities associated with energy sector, the pertinent challenges, and the opportunities that promise reduction of GHG emissions while providing national energy and economic security. The importance of achieving timely, sustained, and increasing reductions in GHG emissions means that a combination of policies may be needed. This study points to the long-term importance of making near- and medium-term policy choices on a well-informed, strategic basis. This analytical paper is expected to provide useful information to the national policy makers and other decision makers. It may also contribute to the GHG emission inventories and the climate change negotiations.     

中国地区臭氧前体物对地面臭氧的影响

利用GEOS-Chem模式的数值试验结果,研究中国地区NOx和两类VOCs对O3质量浓度分布及其化学机理的影响。研究表明,NOx的减少会使得中国西部O3质量浓度显著降低,但在冬季NOx的减少会使得东北、华北地区O3质量浓度上升。而京津唐地区由于VOCs/NOx比值偏低,不能通过单一减少NOx来控制O3质量浓度。VOCs排放的减少会使得我国东部地区O3质量浓度大幅减少,其中人为VOCs的减少能降低我国东部地面O3质量浓度,而生物VOCs的减少只能在夏秋季有效减少我国东部地区35°N以南区域的地面O3质量浓度。控制地面O3质量浓度时,中国西部主要考虑NOx的减排,东部35°N以北主要考虑AVOCs的减排,而30~35°N应同时考虑AVOCs和BVOCs的减排,在30°N以南的地区,则需要全面考虑NOx和VOCs的减排。     

Subsonic aircraft and ozone trends

Growth in subsonic air traffic over the past 20 years has been dramatic, with an annual increase of }6.1% over the decade between 1978 and 1988. Furthermore, aircraft activities in the year 2000 are predicted to be double those of 1990, with a shift towards more high-flying, longhaul subsonics. Aircraft exhaust gases increase the amount of nitrogen oxides (NO _x ) in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere through injection at cruise altitudes. Given that NO _x is instrumental in tropospheric ozone production and stratospheric ozone destruction, it is important to determine the influence of subsonic aircraft NO _x emissions on levels of atmospheric ozone. This paper describes calculations designed to investigate the impact that subsonic aircraft may already have had on the atmosphere during the 1980s, run in a 2-D chemical-radiative-transport model. The results indicate a significant increase in upper tropospheric ozone over the decade arising from aircraft emissions. However, when comparing model results with observational data, certain discrepancies appear. Lower stratospheric ozone loss over the 1980s does not appear to be greatly altered by the inclusion of aircraft emissions in the model. However, given the trend in greater numbers of long-haul subsonic aircraft, this factor must be considered in any further calculations.     

Agricultural production and greenhouse gas emissions from world regions—The major trends over 40 years

Since 1970, global agricultural production has more than doubled with agriculture and land-use change now responsible for ∼1/4 of greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. Yet, while greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit of agricultural product have been reduced at a global level, trends in world regions have been quantified less thoroughly. The KPI (Kaya-Porter Identity) is a novel framework for analysing trends in agricultural production and land-use change and related GHG emissions. We apply this to assess trends and differences in nine world regions over the period 1970–2007. We use a deconstructed analysis of emissions from the mix of multiple sources, and show how each is changing in terms of absolute emissions on a per area and per produced unit basis, and how the change of emissions from each source contributes to the change in total emissions over time. The doubling of global agricultural production has mainly been delivered by developing and transitional countries, and this has been mirrored by increased GHG emissions. The decoupling of emissions from production shows vast regional differences. Our estimates show that emissions per unit crop (as kg CO₂-equivalents per Giga Joule crop product), in Oceania, have been reduced by 94% from 1093 to 69; in Central & South America by 57% from 849 to 362; in sub-Saharan Africa by 27% from 421 to 309, and in Europe by 56% from 86 to 38. Emissions per unit livestock (as kg CO₂-eq. GJ⁻¹ livestock product) have reduced; in sub-Saharan Africa by 24% from 6001 to 4580; in Central & South America by 61% from 3742 to 1448; in Central & Eastern Asia by 82% from 3,205 to 591, and; in North America by 28% from 878 to 632. In general, intensive and industrialised systems show the lowest emissions per unit of agricultural production.     

Satellite Measurements of Tropospheric Column O<Subscript>3</Subscript> and NO<Subscript>2</Subscript> in Eastern and Southeastern Asia: Comparison with a Global Model (MOZART-2)

Satellite measurements of tropospheric column O₃ and NO₂ in eastern and southeastern Asia are analyzed to study the spatial and seasonal characteristics of pollution in these regions. Tropospheric column O₃ is derived from differential measurements of total column ozone from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), and stratospheric column ozone from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). The tropospheric column NO₂ is measured by Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME). A global chemical and transport model (Model of Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 2; MOZART-2) is applied to analyze and interpret the satellite measurements. The study, which is based on spring, summer, and fall months of 1997 shows generally good agreement between the model and satellite data with respect to seasonal and spatial characteristics of O₃ and NO₂ fields. The analysis of the model results show that the industrial emission of NO_x (NO + NO₂) contributes about 50%–80% to tropospheric column NO₂ in eastern Asia and about 20%–50% in southeastern Asia. The contribution of industrial emission of NO_x to tropospheric column O₃ ranges from 10% to 30% in eastern Asia. Biomass burning and lightning NO_x emissions have a small effect on tropospheric O₃ in central and eastern Asia, but they have a significant impact in southeastern Asia. The varying effects of NO_x on tropospheric column ozone are attributed to differences in relative abundance of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) with respect to total nitrogen in the two regions.