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On civil engineering disasters and their mitigation 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Civil engineering works such as buildings and infrastructure are the carriers of human civilization. They are, however, also the origins of various types of disasters, which are referred to in this paper as civil engineering disasters. This paper presents the concept of civil engineering disasters, their characteristics, classification, causes, and mitigation technologies. Civil engineering disasters are caused primarily by civil engineering defects, which are usually attributed to improper selection of construction site, hazard assessment, design and construction, occupancy, and maintenance. From this viewpoint, many so-called natural disasters such as earthquakes, strong winds, floods, landslides, and debris flows are substantially due to civil engineering defects rather than the actual natural hazards. Civil engineering disasters occur frequently and globally and are the most closely related to human beings among all disasters. This paper emphasizes that such disasters can be mitigated mainly through civil engineering measures, and outlines the related objectives and scientific and technological challenges. 相似文献
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Comprehensive flood risk assessment based on set pair analysis-variable fuzzy sets model and fuzzy AHP 总被引：10，自引：1，他引：9
Qiang Zou Jianzhong Zhou Chao Zhou Lixiang Song Jun Guo 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(2):525-546
On the basis of the disaster system theory and comprehensive analysis of flood risk factors, including the hazard of the disaster-inducing factors and disaster-breeding environment, as well as the vulnerability of the hazards-bearing bodies, the primary risk assessment index system of flood diversion district as well as its assessment standards were established. Then, a new model for comprehensive flood risk assessment was put forward in this paper based on set pair analysis (SPA) and variable fuzzy sets (VFS) theory, named set pair analysis-variable fuzzy sets model (SPA-VFS), which determines the relative membership degree function of VFS by using SPA method and has the advantages of intuitionist course, simple calculation and good generality application. Moreover, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was combined with trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to calculate the weights of assessment indices, thus the weights for flood hazard and flood vulnerability were determined by the fuzzy AHP procedure, respectively. Then SPA-VFS were applied to calculate the flood hazard grades and flood vulnerability grades with rank feature value equation and the confidence criterion, respectively. Under the natural disasters risk expression recommended by the Humanitarian Affairs Department of United Nations, flood risk grades were achieved from the flood hazard grades and flood vulnerability grades with risk grade classification matrix, where flood hazard, flood vulnerability and flood risk were all classified into five grades as very low, low, medium, high and very high. Consequently, integrated flood risk maps could be carried out for flood risk management and decision-making. Finally, SPA-VFS and fuzzy AHP were employed for comprehensive flood risk assessment of Jingjiang flood diversion district in China, and the computational results demonstrate that SPA-VFS is reasonable, reliable and applicable, thus has bright prospects of application for comprehensive flood risk assessment, and moreover has potential to be applicable to comprehensive risk assessment of other natural disasters with no much modification. 相似文献
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Disaster risk evolves spatially and temporally due to the combined dynamics of hazards, exposure and vulnerability. However, most previous risk assessments of natural disasters were static and typically based on historical disaster events. Dynamic risk assessments are required to effectively reduce risks and prevent future losses. Based on rainstorm disaster data and meteorological information collected in Dalian, China, from 1976 to 2015, the hidden Markov model (HMM) was used to detect inter-annual changes in rainstorm disaster risks. An independent sample test was conducted to assess the reliability of the HMM in dynamic risk assessments. The dynamic rainstorm risk in Dalian was simulated based on the observation probability matrix, which characterized the relationship dependence between rainstorm hazard and risk, and the probability matrix of state transition, which reflected the probability of changes for the risk level. High rainstorm risk was associated with high-hazard rainstorms and continuously appeared with little probability in several successive years. The reliability applied the HMM to simulate the rainstorm disaster risk was approximately 67% in the dynamic risk assessment. Additionally, the rainstorm disaster risk in Dalian is predicted to be at a medium-risk level in 2017, with a probability of 0.685. Our findings suggest that the HMM can be effectively used in the dynamic risk assessment of natural disasters. Notably, future risk levels can be predicted using the current hazard level and the HMM. 相似文献
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利用多方收集到的地震灾害资料,对2020年全球地震活动及地震灾害进行了整理,绘制了近20年全球灾害地震频度与伤亡情况变化曲线及2020年灾害地震分布图,描述了造成人员伤亡的地震信息及灾害情况,对重大地震灾害事件做了详细分析,并总结了2020年地震灾害的主要特征。与往年全球地震相比,2020年全球地震活动性较弱,6级以上强震发生频次大幅减少;2020年地震灾害造成的伤亡为本世纪最低,且灾害地震呈现频度低、伤亡小、重大灾害线性分布等特征。针对地震频度低、伤亡集中情况,本文提出了相应的地震灾害预防措施及建议,强调了未来的监测预报与震害防御工作至关重要。 相似文献
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