A comparison of two numerical models for the prediction of vibrations from underground railway traffic

Two prediction models for calculating vibration from underground railways are developed: the pipe-in-pipe model and the coupled periodic finite element–boundary element (FE–BE) model.The pipe-in-pipe model is a semi-analytical three-dimensional model that accounts for the dynamic interaction between the track, the tunnel and the soil. The continuum theory of elasticity in cylindrical coordinates is used to model two concentric pipes: an inner pipe to represent the tunnel wall and an outer pipe to represent the surrounding soil. The tunnel and soil are coupled accounting for equilibrium of stresses and compatibility of displacements at the tunnel–soil interface. This method assumes that the tunnel is invariant in the longitudinal direction and the problem is formulated in the frequency–wavenumber domain using a Fourier transformation. A track, formulated as an Euler–Bernoulli beam, is then coupled to this model. Results are transformed to the space domain using the inverse Fourier transform.The coupled periodic FE–BE model is based on a subdomain formulation, where a boundary element method is used for the soil and a finite element method for the tunnel. The Craig–Bampton substructuring technique is used to efficiently incorporate the track in the tunnel. The periodicity of the tunnel is exploited using the Floquet transformation to formulate the track–tunnel–soil interaction problem in the frequency–wavenumber domain and to compute the wave field radiated into the soil.An invariant concrete tunnel, embedded in a homogeneous full space is analyzed using both approaches. The pipe-in-pipe model offers an exact solution to this problem, which is used to validate the coupled periodic FE–BE model. The free field response due to a harmonic load in the tunnel is predicted and results obtained with both models are compared. The advantages and limitations of both models are highlighted. The coupled periodic FE–BE model has a greater potential as it can account for the complex periodic geometry of the tunnel and the layering in a soil medium. The effect of coupling a floating slab to the tunnel–soil system is also studied with both models by calculating the insertion gain.     

A comparison of drainage networks derived from digital elevation models at two scales

Automated generation of drainage networks has become increasingly popular with powerful analytical functions in geographic information systems (GIS) and with the increased availability of digital elevation models (DEMs). This paper compares drainage networks derived from DEMs at two scales, 1:250 000 (250K) and 1:24 000 (24K), using various drainage parameters common in hydrology and geomorphology. The comparison of parameters derived from the 250K DEMs with those from the 24K DEMs in 20 basins ranging from 150 to 1000 km² in West Virginia shows that the goodness-of-fit between parameter estimates based on the DEMs varies. Results clearly show that superior estimations are produced from the 24K DEMs. Better estimates can be obtained from the 250K DEMs for stream length and frequency parameters than for gradient parameters. However, the estimation of the mean gradient parameters based on the 250K DEMs seems to improve with increasing terrain complexity. Finally, basin size does not strongly affect the accuracy of parameter estimates based on the 250K DEMs.     

电离层预报模型研究

当利用无线电电磁波进行远程通信、卫星导航时,传递信号要受到电离层的影响,因此,对电离层中电子含量的研究显得特别重要.虽然国际上有几种电离层的电子含量预报模型,但其预报只能精确到电子含量的50%～60%.本文提出了一种新的电离层电子含量预报方法:即用球谐函数对IGS(国际GPS服务)所给出的离地面450 km高的球面上的每一网点的电离层电子含量进行拟合,对不同的时间所得到的拟合系数所形成的时间序列用时间序列分析理论中的ARMA(p,q)模型进行预报,从而实现全球的电离层电子含量预报.利用本方法对2004年和2005年IGS所给电离层电子含量资料在地理框架中做了分析预报,5天内电子含量预报相对精度在90%左右.     

A detailed comparison of theoretical wave spectra and wave forecasting methods

Summary Theoretical wave spectra derived by J. Darbyshire and G. Neumann, and a modification of Neumann's results by H. U. Roll and G. Fischer are compared with a carefully computed observed spectrum and with average period, significant height, and slope observations. Observations of waves for one of the two most intense storms in the North Pacific for a 35 year period are compared with forecasts made by the Sverdrup-Munk-Bretschneider wave forecasting method, the Pierson-Neumann-James-method, and the Darbyshire method.It is shown that the Neumann spectrum agrees best with the observed spectrum. It correctly predicts the significant height, and it is consistent with average period considerations, with sea surface slope considerations, and with the properties that the sea should have when photographed. Moreover, for wave observations for one of the most intense storms in the North Pacific the Sverdrup-Munk-Bretschneider and Pierson-Neumann-James-method agree within a few feet for the significant height. The Darbyshire method is too low by more than 12 feet although the sea was not fully developed, and it would have forecast a fully developed sea.The Roll-Fischer modification leads to discrepancies with the observable characteristics of the composite wave pattern which cannot be resolved by changing the constant of the spectral function in order to adjust the total wave energy to suit the wave height characteristics.Résumé Des spectres théorétiques des vagues derivées par J. Darbyshire et G. Neumann ainsi qu'une modification par Roll-Fischer des spectres proposés par G. Neumann sont comparés à un spectre soigneusement calculé à partir des enregistrements des vagues. Les valeurs de la période moyenne apparente, de la hauteur significative des vagues et de l'angle d'inclinaison des vagues, à dériver des spectres théorétiques, permettent de les mettre en parallèle avec des observations. De plus, on confronte des observations des vagues, prises des enregistrements d'une des deux tempêtes les plus fortes qui se sont produites pendant les dernières 35 années en océan Pacifique Nord, avec les résultats obtenus grâce aux méthodes de prévision des vagues de Sverdrup-Munk-Bretschneider, de Pierson-Neumann-James et de Darbyshire.Il se montra que le spectre d'après Neumann se rapproche le plus du spectre observé. Ses résultats correspondent aux observations de l'énergie totale de la mer agitée, aux considérations de la période moyenne, à l'angle d'inclinaison des vagues et aux propriétés statistiques de la surface de la mer agitée, comme elles se laissent dériver des photographies stéréophotogrammétriques. Des observations des vagues, provenant d'une des tempêtes les plus fortes en océan Pacifique Nord, correspondent également à quelques pieds près aux prévisions effectuées d'après les méthodes de Sverdrup-Munk-Bretschneider et de Pierson-Neumann-James. Au contraire, l'application de la méthode de Darbyshire donne des hauteurs trop faibles de 12 pieds bien que cette méthode eût prédit l'entrée d'un développement complet de l'agitation de la mer en vue des conditions données par la tempête. En réalité, la mer n'atteignit pas l'état d'une agitation complètement développée et le résultat de la prévision d'après la méthode de Darbyshire eut différé encore plus fort de l'agitation réelle complètement développée de la mer, vu la grande force des vents.La modification d'après Roll-Fischer entraîne des contradictions par rapport à certaines caractéristiques de l'agitation complexe de la mer, accessibles à l'observation. Une modification de la constante de la fonction spectrale ne peut pas faire disparaître ces contradictions lors même que l'on essayerait à adapter à la caractéristique des hauteurs des vagues l'énergie totale de l'agitation de la mer.Résultats des prévisions de l'agitation de la mer. — On compare différentes méthodes en tant qu'elles se basent sur des spectres des vagues et on trouve que la méthode proposée en 1955 par Pierson-Neumann-James semble s'accorder le mieux avec les conditions observées. Cela se vérifie particulièrement lorsqu'on considère un grand nombre de situations météorologiques et des conditions de la mer agitée, offrant le plus de différences et d'extrêmes possibles.

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Ausführliche Gegenüberstellung von theoretischen Wellenspektren und Methoden für die Seegangsvorhersage

Zusammenfassung Theoretische Wellenspektren nach Darbyshire und Neumann sowie nach der von Roll-Fischer vorgeschlagenen Änderung der Neumann-Spektren werden mit einem aus Seegangsregistrierungen sorgfältig berechneten Spektrum verglichen. Die aus den theoretischen Spektren abzuleitenden Werte für die mittlere scheinbare Periode, die kennzeichnende Wellenhöhe und die Neigungswinkel der wellenbewegten Meeresoberfläche lassen einen Vergleich mit den Beobachtungen zu. Außerdem werden Wellenbeobachtungen von einem der beiden stärksten Stürme innerhalb der letzten 35 Jahre im Nordpazifik den Resultaten der Seegangsvorhersage-Methoden nach Sverdrup-Munk-Bretschneider, Pierson-Neumann-James und Darbyshire gegenübergestellt.Es zeigt sich, daß das Neumann-Spektrum dem beobachteten Spektrum am nächsten kommt. Es stimmt überein mit der beobachteten Gesamtenergie des Seeganges, mit Betrachtungen über die mittlere Periode, die Neigungswinkel der Wellen und den statistischen Eigenschaften der wellenbewegten Meeresoberfläche, die man z.B. aus stereophotogrammetrischen Aufnahmen ableiten kann. Auch die Wellenbeobachtungen in einem der stärksten Stürme im Nordpazifik stimmen bis auf wenige Fuß mit den Vorausberechnungen nach den Methoden von Sverdrup-Munk-Bretschneider und Pierson-Neumann-James überein. Dagegen fallen die Höhen nach der Darbyshire-Methode um mehr als 12 Fuß zu niedrig aus, obwohl diese Methode den Seegang unter den im Sturm herrschenden Bedingungen als voll ausgereift angibt. Tatsächlich war der Seegang aber nicht voll entwickelt, und der Unterschied gegen die Darbyshire-Methode würde für voll ausgereifte See bei den hohen Windstärken noch größer sein.Die Roll-Fischer-Modifikation des Neumann-Spektrums führt zu Widersprüchen mit gewissen Eigenschaften des komplexen Seeganges, die der Beobachtung zugänglich sind. Diese Widersprüche lassen sich auch dann nicht durch Änderung der Konstanten der Spektralfunktion beseitigen, wenn man die Gesamtenergie das Seeganges der Wellenhöhencharakteristik anzupassen versucht.Ergebnisse der Seegangsvorhersage. — Methoden, soweit sie auf Wellenspektren gegründet sind, werden miteinander verglichen. Die von den Verfassern 1955 vorgeschlagene Methode scheint den beobachteten Verhältnissen am nächsten zu kommen. Dies zeigt sich besonders, wenn möglichst verschiedene und extreme Wetterlagen und Seegangsverhältnisse betrachtet werden.

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Comparaison détaillée des spectres théorétiques des vagues et des méthodes de prévision des vagues

     

A detailed comparison of theoretical wave spectra and wave forecasting methods

Conclusion The status of various results on the determination of the appropriate family of theoretical wave spectra to describe wind generated seas and the status of various wave forecasting methods have been reviewed. The spectra of Neumann appear to describe the sea more accurately than other theoretical spectra and the wave forecasting methods of Pierson, Neumann and James appear to be the most nearly correct for the widest variety of possible wave and weather situations.     

A comparison of two radiometric scales

Summary A comparison has been made of the radiometric scale maintained by the National Standards Laboratory of Australia and the International Pyrheliometric Scale 1956 as currently maintained in Australia. The scales appear to differ by 1.4 per cent, the value assigned to a given irradiance by the National Standards Laboratory being the higher.     

A comparative study of closed-form hydraulic conductivity prediction models

The Mualem and the Burdine hydraulic conductivity prediction models are considered in combination with the van Genuchten analytical retention curve, as well as the Brooks and Corey prediction model. An equivalence is presented between the retention curves of these models. A comparative study follows between hydraulic conductivities that are based on equivalent retention curves. A unified presentation of prediction models provides a framework for the whole analysis. The treatment of the equivalence problem consists in a minimization procedure characterized by uncoupling of the parameters and analytical evaluation of the objective function. Exact analytical equivalence relations are given for significant parts of the parameter ranges, and, for the remaining parts, analytical approximations are proposed. The comparisons between hydraulic conductivities are carried out via an inequality analysis. It is shown that the hydraulic conductivity of the Burdine model is less than that of the other models for extended ranges of equivalent parameters.     

Semi-empirical prediction method for monthly precipitation prediction based on environmental factors and comparison with stochastic and machine learning models

ABSTRACT

Precipitation prediction is central in hydrology and water resources planning and management. This paper introduces a semi-empirical predictive model to predict monthly precipitation and compares its predictive skill with those of machine learning (ML) methods. The stochastic method presented herein estimates monthly precipitation with one-step-ahead prediction properties. The ML predictive skill of the algorithms is evaluated by predicting monthly precipitation relying on the statistical association between precipitation and environmental and topographic factors. The semi-empirical predictive model features non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) for investigating the influence of multiple predictor variables on precipitation. The semi-empirical predictive model’s parameters are optimized with the hybrid genetic algorithm (GA) and Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm (LM), or GALMA, yielding a validated model with high predictive skill. The methodologies are illustrated with data from Hubei Province, China, which comprise 27 meteorological station datasets from 1988–2017. The empirical results provide valuable insights for developing semi-empirical rainfall prediction models.     

A Note on the comparison of proposed wave spectrum formulae

Summary Three wave spectrum formulae due to various authors are mentioned. The additional evidence brought forward to support the Neumann wave spectrum is examined. Additional information is given about the data and the method by which the Darbyshire wave spectrum was derived. Additional examples of wave observations in the North Atlantic are given and the Darbyshire formula and the methods of W. J. Pierson, Jr., G. Neumann, and R. W. James are used to hindcast them. In all the examples, the Darbyshire formula is the more accurate.

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Eine Bemerkung über den Vergleich von Formeln verschiedener Autoren zur Berechnung von Wellenspektren

Zusammenfassung Drei Formeln zur Berechnung von Wellenspektren von verschiedenen Verfassern werden besprochen. Ein zusätzlicher Beweis, erbracht, um das Neuman-Spektrum zu stützen, wird geprüft. Weitere Einzelheiten über die Unterlagen und die Methode, auf die das Wellenspektrum von Darbyshire sich stützt bzw. mit deren Hilfe es abgeleitet wird, werden gegeben. Verschiedene Beispiele von Wellenbeobachtungen im Nord-Atlantischen Ozean werden angeführt, und die Darbyshire-Formel sowie die Methoden von W. J. Pierson, Jr., G. Neumann und R. W. James werden benutzt, um den Seegang aus den Wetterkarten zu bestimmen (hindcast). Bei allen drei Beispielen erweist sich die Darbyshire-Formel als die genaueste.

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Note sur la comparaison des formules proposées de divers auteurs pour le calcul des spectres des vagues

Résumé On expose trois formules proposées de divers auteurs pour calculer les spectres des vagues. La preuve additionnelle fournie pour appuyer la méthode du spectre des vagues d'après G. Neumann est vérifiée. D'autres détails concernant les données et la méthode dont J. Darbyshire s'est servi pour en dériver sa formule du spectre des vagues, sont fournis. L'auteur présente encore d'autres exemples des vagues observées en Océan Atlantique Nord et se sert de la formule de J. Darbyshire et des méthodes de W. J. Pierson, Jr., G. Neumann et R. W. James pour déterminer la mer agitée à partir des cartes météorologiques (hindcasting). La formule de J. Darbyshire se trouve être la plus précise des trois exemples discutés ici.

     

A comparison of GOCE gravitational models with EGM2008

Four new gravity field models from GOCE, two of them combined with GRACE, are compared here with EGM2008. The objectives are to look into the differences in consecutive ranges of the spherical harmonic expansion globally as well as in selected geographical regions and in the regions of the various data sources used for EGM2008. In general, GOCE is able to contribute to improved global gravity models in the spherical harmonic range between 120 and 200 (and above). The agreement between EGM2008 and the GOCE models is very good in well-surveyed regions such as North America, Europe and Australia, with geoid RMS-differences on the order of 4–6 cm. In other regions, where the surface gravity data available for the development of EGM2008 were poor, such as South America, Africa, South-East Asia or China the RMS-differences are on a level of 30 cm. Here GOCE leads to a significant improvement. These findings are confirmed by the analysis of the areas of the various EGM2008 data sources. In the regions of the so-called “fill-in” data of EGM2008 RMS-geoid height differences are high. In Antarctica GOCE also gives important improvements in terms of spatial resolution and accuracy. In general, the agreement between EGM2008 and the GOCE-models up to degree and order (d/o) 200 is good, with a global (excluding the polar gaps of GOCE orbits, throughout) geoid difference RMS of 11 cm, in the ocean areas 8 cm and 20 cm in the continental areas. GOCE models are better suited for ocean circulation studies because no prior ocean information enters into the data reduction process, as it is the case when deducing gravity anomalies from an altimetric mean sea surface. On the other hand, the good consistency between GOCE-models and EGM2008 in ocean areas very likely indicates that the influence of ocean circulation information on EGM2008 is rather small. The four tested GOCE models behave similarly except at the highest latitudes where GOCE lacks data due to its orbit inclination of 96.5° and some form of regularization which has to be applied.     

Cosmic ray geomagnetic cutoff rigidities in the magnetic field of two empirical models during a strong disturbance in November 2003: A comparison of models

Cosmic ray (CR) fluxes, which penetrate into the Earth??s magnetosphere and atmosphere from the interplanetary space, are an important factor of space weather. The geomagnetic field allows or forbids CR particles to enter into a given point in the magnetosphere depending on their energy. The geomagnetic cutoff rigidity regulates the distribution of CR fluxes in the magnetosphere. The geomagnetic cutoff rigidity (geomagnetic threshold) determination accuracy is closely related to the accuracy of the magnetospheric model used in calculations. Using a method for tracing of charged CR particle trajectories in the magnetic field of a model magnetosphere, we obtained geomagnetic thresholds for two magnetosphere empirical models (Ts01 and Ts04), constructed based on the same initial database. The Ts01 model describes the middle magnetosphere for certain conditions in the solar wind and interplanetary field. The Ts04 model pays the main attention to describing the large-scale evolution of magnetospheric currents during a storm. The theoretically obtained geomagnetic thresholds have been compared with experimental thresholds, calculated using the spectrographic global survey method based on data from the global network of CR stations. The study has been performed for the period of a strong geomagnetic storm that occurred in November 2003.     

A comparison of two bivariate extreme value distributions

There are two distinct bivariate extreme value distributions constructed from Gumbel marginals, namely Gumbel mixed (GM) model and Gumbel logistic (GL) model. These two models have completely different structures and their dependence ranges are different. The product-moment correlation coefficient for the former is [0,2/3] and the latter is [0,1]. It is natural to ask which one is more appropriate for representing the joint probabilistic behavior of two correlated Gumbel-distributed variables. This study compares these two models by numerical experiments. The comparison is based on that: (i) if the two distribution models are identical, then the joint probability and the joint return period computed by the GM model should be the same as those by the GL model; and (ii) if a selected distribution is the true distribution from which sample data are drawn, then the probabilities computed by the theoretical model should provide a good fit to empirical ones. Comparison results indicate that in the range of correlation coefficient [0,2/3], both models provide identical joint probabilities and joint return periods, and both indicate a good fit to empirical probabilities; while for (2/3,1), only the Gumbel logistic model can be used.     

A practical prediction of second-order wave diffraction caused by large offshore structures

An ad-hoc method of estimating second-order wave loads on square caissons has been formulated in this paper for design purposes. This estimation has been supported by the comparison between the predicted and available measured values. This comparison shows excellent agreement.     

A comparison of EISCAT and HF Doppler observations of a ULF wave

Since the middle of 1995, an HF Doppler sounder has been running almost continuously in northern Norway, with the receiver at Ramfjordmoen and the transmitter at Seljelvnes. Concurrent operation of the EISCAT UHF radar in common programme (CP-1) mode has made it possible to study the ionospheric signature of a magnetospheric ULF wave. These are the first results of such wave signatures observed simultaneously in both instruments. It has been demonstrated that the observed Doppler signature was mainly due to the vertical bulk motion of the ionosphere caused by the electric field perturbation of the ULF wave and the first direct observational confirmation of a numerical simulation has been achieved. The wave, which was Alfvénic in nature, was detected by the instruments 8° equatorward of the broad resonance region. The implications for the deduced wave modes in the ionosphere and the mechanism producing the HF Doppler variations are discussed.Presented at the Eighth International EISCAT Workshop, Leicester, UK, June 1997     

A non-parametric wave type based model for real-time prediction of strong ground motion accelerogram

A wave type based method for real-time prediction of strong ground motion (SGM) accelerogram is developed. Real-time prediction of SGM is requested in predictive building control systems to trigger and control actuator systems achieving the goal of reduction of the structural deformations during an on-going earthquake. It is well known that SGM is a classic example of non-stationary stochastic process with temporal variation of both amplitude and frequency content. The developed non-parametric model considers the non-homogeneity of the seismic process which contains different wave types with the individual frequency contents and time-dependency amplitude distribution pattern. Therefore, an important part of the method is to detect dominant seismic wave phases. Prediction of seismic signal is undertaken by applying frequency adaptive windowing approach, which leads to predict the on-coming signal in time window t+Δt based on the measured data in the time window t. Besides use of the frequency adaptive windowing, constant windowing and semi-adaptive windowing approaches are deployed. The results show that use of the adaptive time windows relevant to dominant frequency of the signal will enable the model to catch and predict the most dominant frequencies. Performance of the proposed model is verified by the use of 97 free-field accelerograms, which were applied to train and validate the prediction model. The selected accelerograms were measured above the soil type C and D according Eurocode 8 and their Moment magnitude are ranging between 6.2 and 7.7. The learning capability of the radial basis function Artificial Neural Network is used to reconstruct the SGM accelerogram. The most significant advantage of the proposed model is the concept of wave type based modeling which has the advantage of a conceptual physical modeling of the seismic process. Comparison of the real-time predicted and the observed accelerograms shows a high correlation when the frequency adaptive approach is applied. This paper lays a foundation for more effective use of real-time predictive control systems and potential for future extension in active structural control as well as in real-time seismology.     

转换波在储层预测中的研究分析

岩石的各向异性与油气的运移和储集有着密切关系.在油气勘探和油气田开发中,横波对各向异性的敏感性具有重要价值,它可提供一些其他方法无法获取的新信息.纵波在地下传播时,当通过路径的岩石存在各向异性时,会在波阻抗界面产生纵波和横波.这相当于纵波震源同时激发出纵波和横波,利用这些信息就可以对地下岩石的物性进行研究.本文以有限差分为基础,以地下油气田的储藏地质特性为对象,利用弹性波波动方程的传播特性, 研究P_SV转换波,分析其传播特征,用来指导其在储层预测中的应用.通过研究分析可以看出,P_SV转换波通过含油气介质时受影响比较少,能够得到比纵波好的多的成像资料.     

波阻抗反演在储层预测研究中的应用

随着勘探开发的不断深入, 对油气田的老区勘探开发及二次评价,在储层预测研究上,如何更有效地识别碎屑岩储层及变质岩储层,最大限度地降低波阻抗反演过程中某些不确定性因素造成的影响,以确保储层预测的精度,提高钻探的成功率. 波阻抗反演在以上两种储层反演预测的过程中,能够充分利用钻井、测井、试油、试采等动态、静态资料,更好的对地下地质体进行高精度反演预测,找出油气藏储层在纵向、横向上的分布规律,为井位部署及储量上报提供可靠的依据.     

One-dimensional wave solutions in geophysical models of compaction

Analytical methods are used to study a class of wave solutions of compaction equations. One-dimensional wave equations are reduced to a dynamical system that allows qualitative analysis. The approach proposed makes it possible to solve the problems of existence, uniqueness, and completeness in the class of wave solutions. The trajectories of phase portraits are compared with the solutions of specific geophysical problems. The main applications of compaction mechanics in scientific publications are associated with the problems of dynamics of partially molten rocks in the Earth’s bowels; however, in recent years it has attracted the interest from other scientific and technological areas, in particular, from the oil-and-gas geophysics sector. Large volcanic eruptions are considered as an application.