Global aridification in the second half of the 20th century and its relationship to large-scale climate background

The variation in surface wetness index (SWI), which was derived from global gridded monthly precipi- tation and monthly mean surface air temperature datasets of Climatic Research Unit (CRU), from 1951― 2002 over global land was analyzed in this paper. The characteristics of the SWI variation in global continents, such as North America, South America, Eurasia, Africa, and Australia, were compared. In addition, the correlation between the SWI variation of each continent (or across the globe) and the large-scale background closely related to SST variations, which affects climate change, was analyzed. The results indicate that the SWI variation shows distinct regional characteristics in the second half of the 20th century under global warming. A drying trend in the last 52 years occurred in Africa, Eurasia, Australia and South America, most obviously in Africa and Eurasia. North America shows a wetting trend after 1976. A 30-year period of dry-wet oscillation is found in South America and Australia; the latest is in a drying period in two regions. The results also revealed that global warming has changed the dry-wet pattern of the global land. South America and Australia have a drying trend despite in- creases in precipitation. This indicates that increases in surface air temperature cannot be ignored in aridification studies. Global dry-wet variation is closely related to large-scale SST variations: the drying trend in Africa and Eurasia and the wetting trend in North America are correlated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); the interdecadal oscillation of SWI in South America and Australia is consistent with the interdecadal variation in Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).     

The great 1983 floods in South American large rivers: a continental hydrological modelling approach

ABSTRACT

This study provides a spatio-temporal analysis of the great floods that occurred in South America in 1983 using hydrometeorological data and outputs from a continental-scale hydrological-hydrodynamic model. In the extreme year 1983, there were three main flooding periods (February, June and July) in many South American river basins, such as the Araguaia, Tocantins, São Francisco, Uruguay, La Plata and its tributaries, resulting in high discharge of the Paraguay River for many months. Depth–area–duration curves show that 3-day precipitation events in northern regions of South America were among the largest 15 events in the period 1980–2015 but only for specific locations, whereas in southern areas, the most extreme events in the same period were for larger durations (≥7-day precipitation). Modelled total export of water volume to the oceans indicates that rivers draining to the South Atlantic reached an anomaly of 3.7 during 1983, followed by 1998 (1.9) and 1992 (1.1), all of them corresponding to El Niño years.     

Relationship between zonal position of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Euro-Atlantic blocking events and its possible effect on the weather over Europe

The North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) exhibited a marked eastward shift in the mid-1970 s. Observations show that the extreme weather events in Europe have emerged frequently in the past decades. In this paper, based upon the daily NAO index, we have calculated the frequency of in-situ NAO events in winter during 1950-2011 by defining the Eastern-type NAO(ENAO) and Western-type NAO(WNAO) events according to its position at the east(west) of 10°W. Then, the composites of the blocking frequency, temperature and precipitation anomalies for different types of NAO events are performed. Results show that the frequency of Euro-Atlantic blocking events is distributed along the northwest-southeast(southwest-northeast) direction for the negative(positive) phase. Two blocking action centers in Greenland and European continent are observed during the negative phase while one blocking action center over south Europe is seen for the positive phase. The action center of blocking events tends to shift eastward as the NAO is shifted toward the European continent. Moreover, the eastern-type negative phase(ENAO) events are followed by a sharp decline of surface air temperature over Europe(especially in central, east, and south Europe), which have a wider and stronger impact on the weather over European continent than the western-type negative phase(WNAO) events do. A double- branched structure of positive precipitation anomalies is seen for the negative phase event, besides strong positive precipitation anomalies over south Europe for ENAO event. The eastern-type and western-type positive phase(ENAO+ and WNAO+) can lead to warming over Europe. A single-branched positive precipitation anomaly dominant in central and north Europe is seen for positive phase events.     

Tropical precipitation anomalies and d‐excess evolution during El Niño 2014‐16

The last 2014‐16 El Niño event was among the three strongest episodes on record. El Niño considerably changes annual and seasonal precipitation across the tropics. Here, we present a unique stable isotope data set of daily precipitation collected in Costa Rica prior to, during, and after El Niño 2014‐16, in combination with Lagrangian moisture source and precipitation anomaly diagnostics. δ²H composition ranged from ‐129.4 to +18.1 (‰) while δ¹⁸O ranged from ‐17.3 to +1.0 (‰). No significant difference was observed among δ¹⁸O (P=0.186) and δ²H (P=0.664) mean annual compositions. However, mean annual d‐excess showed a significant decreasing trend (from +13.3 to +8.7 ‰) (P<0.001) with values ranging from +26.6 to ‐13.9 ‰ prior to and during the El Niño evolution. The latter decrease in d‐excess can be partly explained by an enhanced moisture flux convergence across the southeastern Caribbean Sea coupled with moisture transport from northern South America by means of an increased Caribbean Low Level Jet regime. During 2014‐15, precipitation deficit across the Pacific domain averaged 46% resulting in a very severe drought; while a 94% precipitation surplus was observed in the Caribbean domain. Understanding these regional moisture transport mechanisms during a strong El Niño event may contribute to a) better understanding of precipitation anomalies in the tropics and b) re‐evaluate past stable isotope interpretations of ENSO events in paleoclimatic archives within the Central America region.     

Interannual climate variability in South America: impacts on seasonal precipitation, extreme events, and possible effects of climate change

Interannual variability is an important modulator of synoptic and intraseasonal variability in South America. This paper seeks to characterize the main modes of interannual variability of seasonal precipitation and some associated mechanisms. The impact of this variability on the frequency of extreme rainfall events and the possible effect of anthropogenic climate change on this variability are reviewed. The interannual oscillations of the annual total precipitation are mainly due to the variability in austral autumn and summer. While autumn is the dominant rainy season in the northern part of the continent, where the variability is highest (especially in the northeastern part), summer is the rainy season over most of the continent, thanks to a summer monsoon regime. In the monsoon season, the strongest variability occurs near the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), which is one of the most important features of the South American monsoon system. In all seasons but summer, the most important source of variability is ENSO (El Ni?o Southern Oscillation), although ENSO shows a great contribution also in summer. The ENSO impact on the frequency of extreme precipitation events is also important in all seasons, being generally even more significant than the influence on seasonal rainfall totals. Climate change associated with increasing emission of greenhouse gases shows potential to impact seasonal amounts of precipitation in South America, but there is still great uncertainty associated with the projected changes, since there is not much agreement among the models’ outputs for most regions in the continent, with the exception of southeastern South America and southern Andes. Climate change can also impact the natural variability modes of seasonal precipitation associated with ENSO.     

High magnitude global seismicity and lateral velocity gradients

Summary A new significant correlation has been sought between high magnitude global seismicity and lateral surface wave velocity gradients. Rayleigh wave velocity divisioning of Eurasia, Africa, Pacific Ocean, Atlantic Ocean and Indian Ocean into regions of similar group velocity dispersion character of 30 sec period bySanto andSato [1]³) has been mainly used for calculating the gradients. It is quite striking to note that all earthquakes of magnitude 8.6 and above during 1897–1956 have occurred in regions having gradients of the order of 1.5·10^–3 sec^–1.Finally, some potential areas for high magnitude earthquake occurrences are predicted and the possible velocity gradients in regions, where division pattern is not yet investigated like South America and Australia, are also estimated.N.G.R.I. Contribution No. 70-170.     

全球海洋碳循环模式MOM4_L40对碳和营养物自然分布的模拟

本文介绍了国家气候中心发展的一个全球海洋碳循环环流模式,并分析评估了该模式的基本性能.该模式是在美国地球物理流体动力学实验室(GFDL,Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)的全球海洋环流模式MOM4(Modular Ocean Model Version 4)基础上发展的一个垂直方向40层、包含生物地球化学过程的全球三维海洋碳循环环流模式,简称为MOM4_L40(Modular Ocean Model Version 4 With 40Levels).该模式在气候场强迫下长期积分1000年,结果分析表明,与观测相比,模式较好地模拟了海洋温度、盐度、总二氧化碳、总碱、总磷酸盐的表面和垂直分布特征.模拟的海洋总二氧化碳分布与观测基本相符,表层为低值区,其下为高值区,高值区域位于10°S—60°N之间,但2000m以上模拟值较观测偏小,2000m以下模拟值较观测偏大.总体来说,MOM4_L40模式是一个可信赖的海洋碳循环过程模拟研究工具.     

Solar forcing on the 7Be-air concentration variability at ground level

This paper analyzes the correlation between the temporal and spatial variability of ⁷Be-air concentration at ground level to precipitation. Data, obtained from 26 stations distributed throughout North and South America, Australia and Antarctica, were analyzed. Variations in the data were extracted by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and principal component (PC) analysis. The results presented here show that the variability of ⁷Be-air concentration at ground level is influenced simultaneously both by solar cycle and atmospheric processes, such as precipitation, turbulent transport and advection. Solar forcing dominates ⁷Be annual variability worldwide. On the other hand, atmospheric processes influence ⁷Be air–concentration at ground level regionally and seasonally.     

Deglacial sea surface temperature and salinity increase in the western tropical Atlantic in synchrony with high latitude climate instabilities

A sediment core from the western tropical Atlantic covering the last 21,000 yr has been analysed for centennial scale reconstruction of sea surface temperature (SST) and ice volume-corrected oxygen isotopic composition of sea water (δ¹⁸O_ivc-sw) using Mg / Ca and δ¹⁸O of the shallow dwelling planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber (white). At a period between 15.5 and 17.5 kyr BP, the Mg / Ca SST and δ¹⁸O_ivc-sw, a proxy for sea surface salinity (SSS), reveals a warming of around 2.5 °C along with an increase in salinity. A second period of pronounced warming and SSS increase occurred between 11.6 and 13.5 kyr BP. Within age model uncertainties, both warming intervals were synchronous with air temperature increase over Antarctica and ice retreat in the southern South Atlantic and terminated with abrupt centennial scale SSS decrease and slight SST cooling in conjunction with interglacial reactivation of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). We suggest that during these warm intervals, production of saline and warm water of the North Brazil Current resulted in pronounced heat and salt accumulation, and was associated with warming in the southern Atlantic, southward displacement of the intertropical convergence zone and weakened MOC. At the termination of the Younger Dryas and Heinrich event 1, intensification of cross-equatorial heat and salt transport caused centennial scale cooling and freshening of the western tropical Atlantic surface water. This study shows that the western tropical Atlantic served as a heat and salt reservoir during deglaciation. The sudden release of accumulated heat and salt at the end of Younger Drays and Heinrich event 1 may have contributed to the rapid reinvigoration of the Atlantic MOC.     

Trans-Atlantic correlation of eruptive sequences and individual silicic volcanic units within the Paraná-Etendeka igneous province

The Mesozoic volcanic rocks of the Serra Geral Formation in the Paraná Basin, South America, and of the Etendeka Group in northwestern Namibia were erupted shortly before the opening of the South Atlantic. The major widespread silicic volcanic units in the Etendeka Group are interpreted as rheoignimbrites (Milner et al., 1992) and are interbedded with tholeiitic basalts and basaltic andesites.The southern portion of the Etendeka Group is subdivided into a basal Awahab Formation which is overlain disconformably by the Tafelberg Formation. Both formations contain silicic and mafic units. Bulk composition, initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios, phenocryst assemblages and mineral compositions are used to correlate silicic units of the Awahab Formation with the basal units of the Palmas silicic volcanic rocks in the southern Paraná Basin. Silicic units of the Tafelberg Formation can similarly be correlated with silicic units in the upper portion of the Palmas succession, which are also disconformable on the units below them. Not all silicic units in these successions are present in both the Etendeka and Paraná areas, but where correlation of individual units is possible, then this is found to be consistent with the overall stratigraphic sequence.Silicic units in the Awahab Formation were erupted from the Messum Igneous Complex in Namibia and their correlation into Brazil indicates that individual eruptive units must have travelled over 340 km from their source. Serial changes in the composition of silicic units in the Awahab Formation and their correlatives indicates that they were erupted from a single magma system from which a total of ˜ 8600 km³ of material was erupted.     

The Tsunami of 26 December, 2004: Numerical Modeling and Energy Considerations

A numerical model for the global tsunamis computation constructed by Kowalik et al. (2005), is applied to the tsunami of 26 December, 2004 in the World Ocean from 80°S to 69°N with spatial resolution of one minute. Because the computational domain includes close to 200 million grid points, a parallel version of the code was developed and run on a Cray X1 supercomputer. An energy flux function is used to investigate energy transfer from the tsunami source to the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Although the first energy input into the Pacific Ocean was the primary (direct) wave, reflections from the Sri Lankan and eastern shores of Maldives were a larger source. The tsunami traveled from Indonesia, around New Zealand, and into the Pacific Ocean by various routes. The direct path through the deep ocean to North America carried miniscule energy, while the stronger signal traveled a considerably longer distance via South Pacific ridges as these bathymetric features amplified the energy flux vectors. Travel times for these amplified energy fluxes are much longer than the arrival of the first wave. These large fluxes are organized in the wave-like form when propagating between Australia and Antarctica. The sources for the larger fluxes are multiple reflections from the Seychelles, Maldives and a slower direct signal from the Bay of Bengal. The energy flux into the Atlantic Ocean shows a different pattern since the energy is pumped into this domain through the directional properties of the source function. The energy flow into the Pacific Ocean is approximately 75% of the total flow to the Atlantic Ocean. In many locations along the Pacific and Atlantic coasts, the first arriving signal, or forerunner, has lower amplitude than the main signal which often is much delayed. Understanding this temporal distribution is important for an application to tsunami warning and prediction.     

Episodic mesozoic volcanism in Namibia and Brazil: A K—Ar Isochron study bearing on the opening of the south atlantic

An attempt is made to find a more objective and precise basis for the correlation of volcanics from southwestern Africa and South America than is possible by frequency diagrams of individual K—Ar ages. This leads to a critical appraisal of conventionally calculated K—Ar ages with the conclusion thata priori assumption regarding the isotopic composition of non-radiogenic argon and, hence, the standard atmospheric correction, are no longer tenable.K—Ar isotoopic data on Mesozoic basalts and dolerites from Namibia and Brazil are presented in terms of an isochron model. Plots for cogenetic rocks are unacceptably scattered on a “radiogenic”⁴⁰Ar vs. K diagram, but show a high degree of collinearity on⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar diagrams0K/³⁶Ar diagrams. Using the latter plots, a number of isochrons are generated which indicate that Mesozoic volcanism in these regions occured as several discrete episodes of fairly short duration. Effusion of the extensive Serra Geral basalts of Brazil and the Kaoko basalts of Namibia is shown to have occured simultaneeously at 121 m.y.B.P. Basalts from a series of boreholes along the central Parana Basin, as well as a group of dykes from Sao Paulo, yield isochrons of 128 m.y., which coincides with the postulated onset of separation of Africa and South America based on marine magnetic anomalies. Linear dyke swarms along the Namibian seaboard, interpreted as an expression of the earliest rift phase, have an isochron age of 134 m.y. Sills and dykes, mainly from southern Namibia, with isochron ages of 183 m.y. are considered to be the westernmost manifestation of Stormberg volcanism, not necessarily related to rifting. Most of the igneous suites examined have initial⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar ratios significantly different from the modern atmospheric value.     

Dynamic identification of moisture sources in the Orinoco basin in equatorial South America

Abstract

The main areas of net moisture uptake are examined in air masses over the Orinoco River basin, located in equatorial South America, north of the Amazon basin. Although the Orinoco River has the third largest average annual discharge in the world (with 5.4 × 10¹¹ m³ year^?1 draining into the Atlantic Ocean), the sources of moisture that feed it have not previously been studied in any detail. The results are presented from analyses of back-tracking of all the air masses over the Orinoco basin over a period of five years (2000–2004) using the diagnostic Lagrangian tool FLEXPART. The input data for the model were obtained from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Air transported into the Orinoco basin experiences a large uptake of water over the tropical North Atlantic within the three days prior to its arrival over the basin. The Tropical South Atlantic and the eastern coast of the Pacific become significant moisture sources for about 5–10 days before arriving over the Orinoco basin. Contrary to what might be expected, large areas of the Amazon basin, along with the Gulf of Mexico, do not provide significant moisture to the study area. Interestingly, over these zones the air experiences net moisture loss. Preliminary analysis of the processes that occur leads to the conclusion that most of the water observed over the Orinoco basin derives from advective fluxes into the area, while recycling of moisture is negligible.     

Geostatistical Interplay Between Geophysical and Geochemical Data: Mapping Litho-Structural Assemblages of Mesozoic Igneous Activities in the Parnaíba Basin (NE Brazil)

Two widespread magmatic events are recorded in the Parnaíba basin (NE Brazil) during the Jurassic/Cretaceous opening of the Central and South Atlantic Oceans. The Early Jurassic (~ 200 Ma) lava flows of the Mosquito Formation occur essentially in the western and southern basin segments, representing one of the largest expressions of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province in the South American Plate. In contrast, sill complexes and dike swarms of the Early Cretaceous (129–124 Ma) Sardinha Formation occur in the eastern part of the basin and are chrono-correlated to the large Paraná–Etendeka igneous province and to the Rio Ceará–Mirim Dike Swarm. We gathered geophysical, well logging, outcrop analogs and geochemical data to recognize geometrical shapes and areal distribution patterns of igneous-related constructions. Seismic and well data reveal hundreds of km wide multilayered sill complexes and dikes, which are widespread across vast regions of the basin without evident structural control from either the Precambrian basement grain or the basin internal architecture. Anomaly enhancement techniques and self-organizing maps (SOM) procedure were applied on airborne magnetic data, unraveling near-surface magmatic features in four distinct magnetic domains. Using SOM analysis, the basaltic rocks were divided into six groups based on magnetic susceptibility and major elements composition. These results suggest common origin for both magmatic episodes, probably a combination of effects of edge-driven convection and large-scale mantle warming under the westward moving West Gondwana during the Central and South Atlantic opening, which caused a shifted emplacement to the east of the igneous rocks in the Parnaíba basin.     

Variations of stable isotopic compositions in precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau and its adjacent regions

There is no temperature effect in the southern Tibetan Plateau and South Asia to the south of the Tanggula Mountains. Amount effect has been observed at a few sampling stations accounting for about a half of the statistical stations. There is notable temperature effect in the middle and northern Tibetan Plateau and its adjacent Central Asia to the north of the Tanggula Mountains. Because vapor directly originates from low-latitude oceans, the relative heavy δ¹⁸O with small variation characterizes the rainfall in South Asia. A sharp depletion of the stable isotopic compositions in precipitation takes place from Kyangjin on the southern slope of the Himalayas to the Tanggula Mountains in the middle plateau. From the Tanggula Mountains to the northern Tibetan Plateau, the δ¹⁸O in precipitation increases with increasing latitude.     

Annual and seasonal fluctuations of precipitation and streamflow in the Aconcagua River basin, Chile

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon has been shown to influence dramatically precipitation and streamflow in tropical western South America. The statistical properties of annual and winter precipitation totals and streamflow characteristics in the Aconcagua River basin, in temperate central Chile, are investigated in such a way as to permit the identification of flood- and drought-generating processes and their possible linkages to upset behavior in the tropical Pacific. Despite the considerable distance to those regions generally associated with ENSO events, the phenomenon produces marked effects upon the various physical processes which govern the surface hydrometeorology of the study area. El Niño years result in significant increases in annual and winter precipitation, particularly along the coastal margin. The likelihood of rain or rain-on-snow flooding, in the succeeding winter, increases, as does the size of spring snowmelt in the southern summer, 1 year after the upset conditions in the tropical region. Annual low flows are of higher magnitude and occur earlier in the year than is usual.     

ExcessHe in the Atlantic Ocean

³/He⁴He measurements at two stations in the Atlantic show that the deep water (> 2 km) contains far less excess³He than our previous measurements have shown for the Pacific Ocean. The³/He⁴He ratio anomaly (relative to atmospheric³/He⁴He) is approximately 5% for the deep Atlantic compared to about 20% for the deep Pacific. The North Atlantic³He profile shows much more structure than the South Atlantic profile, with maxima observed at 500 m, 1900 m, and 3200 m. The maxima at 500 m and 1900 m are probably due to in situ tritium decay, whereas the 3200 m maximum cannot be due to tritium, and is probably due to leakage of³He into the Atlantic water from the mantle. It seems significant that maxima in the trace elements Cu, Zn and Fe have also been observed at 3200 m at this station by Brewer, Spencer and Robertson.     

Changes in the mode of Southern Ocean circulation over the last glacial cycle revealed by foraminiferal stable isotopic variability

Benthic foraminiferal oxygen and carbon isotopic records from Southern Ocean sediment cores show that during the last glacial period, the South Atlantic sector of the deep Southern Ocean filled to roughly 2500 m with water uniformly low in δ¹³C, resulting in the appearance of a strong mid-depth nutricline similar to those observed in glacial northern oceans. Concomitantly, deep water isotopic gradients developed between the Pacific and Atlantic sectors of the Southern Ocean; the δ¹³C of benthic foraminifera in Pacific sediments remained significantly higher than those in the Atlantic during the glacial episode. These two observations help to define the extent of what has become known as the ‘Southern Ocean low δ¹³C problem’. One explanation for this glacial distribution of δ¹³C calls upon surface productivity overprints or changes in the microhabitat of benthic foraminifera to lower glacial age δ¹³C values. We show here, however, that glacial-interglacial δ¹³C shifts are similarly large everywhere in the deep South Atlantic, regardless of productivity regime or sedimentary environment. Furthermore, the degree of isotopic decoupling between the Atlantic and Pacific basins is proportional to the magnitude of δ¹³C change in the Atlantic on all time scales. Thus, we conclude that the profoundly altered distribution of δ¹³C in the glacial Southern Ocean is most likely the result of deep ocean circulation changes. While the characteristics of the Southern Ocean δ¹³C records clearly point to reduced North Atlantic Deep Water input during glacial periods, the basinal differences suggest that the mode of Southern Ocean deep water formation must have been altered as well.     

Field and geochemical data bearing on the development of a mesozoic volcano-tectonic rift zone and back-arc basin in southernmost South America

A broad zone of dominantly subaerial silicic volcanism associated with regional extensional faulting developed in southern South America during the Middle Jurassic, contemporaneously with the initiation of plutonism along the present Pacific continental margin. Stratigraphic variations observed in cross sections through the silicic Jurassic volcanics along the Pacific margin of southernmost South America indicate that this region of the rift zone developed as volcanism continued during faulting, subsidence and marine innundation. A deep, fault-bounded submarine trough formed near the Pacific margin of the southern part of the volcano-tectonic rift zone during the Late Jurassic. Tholeiitic magma intruded within the trough formed the mafic portion of the floor of this down-faulted basin. During the Early Cretaceous this basin separated an active calc-alkaline volcanic arc, founded on a sliver of continental crust, from the then volcanically quiescent South American continent. Geochemical data suggest that the Jurassic silicic volcanics along the Pacific margin of the volcano-tectonic rift zone were derived by crustal anatexis. Mafic lavas and sills which occur within the silicic volcanics have geochemical affinities with both the tholeiitic basalts forming the ophiolitic lenses which are the remnants of the mafic part of the back-arc basin floor, and also the calc-alkaline rocks of the adjacent Patagonian batholith and their flanking lavas which represent the eroded late Mesozoic calc-alkaline volcanic arc. The source of these tholeiitic and calc-alkaline igneous rocks was partially melted upper mantle material. The igneous and tectonic processes responsible for the development of the volcano-tectonic rift zone and the subsequent back-arc basin are attributed to diapirism in the upper mantle beneath southern South America. The tectonic setting and sequence of igneous and tectonic events suggest that diapirism may have been initiated in response to subduction.