Moment tensors,state of stress and their relation to faulting processes in Gujarat,western India

Time domain moment tensor analysis of 145 earthquakes (M_w 3.2 to 5.1), occurring during the period 2006–2014 in Gujarat region, has been performed. The events are mainly confined in the Kachchh area demarcated by the Island belt and Kachchh Mainland faults to its north and south, and two transverse faults to its east and west. Libraries of Green's functions were established using the 1D velocity model of Kachchh, Saurashtra and Mainland Gujarat. Green's functions and broadband displacement waveforms filtered at low frequency (0.5–0.8 Hz) were inverted to determine the moment tensor solutions. The estimated solutions were rigorously tested through number of iterations at different source depths for finding reliable source locations. The identified heterogeneous nature of the stress fields in the Kachchh area allowed us to divide this into four Zones 1–4. The stress inversion results indicate that the Zone 1 is dominated with radial compression, Zone 2 with strike-slip compression, and Zones 3 and 4 with strike-slip extensions. The analysis further shows that the epicentral region of 2001 M_W 7.7 Bhuj mainshock, located at the junction of Zones 2, 3 and 4, was associated with predominant compressional stress and strike-slip motion along ∼ NNE-SSW striking fault on the western margin of the Wagad uplift. Other tectonically active parts of Gujarat (e.g. Jamnagar, Talala and Mainland) show earthquake activities are dominantly associated with strike-slip extension/compression faulting. Stress inversion analysis shows that the maximum compressive stress axes (σ₁) are vertical for both the Jamnagar and Talala regions and horizontal for the Mainland Gujarat. These stress regimes are distinctly different from those of the Kachchh region.     

Attenuation of High Frequency P and S Waves in the Gujarat Region,India

The local earthquake waveforms recorded on broadband seismograph network of Institute of Seismological Research in Gujarat, India have been analyzed to understand the attenuation of high frequency (2–25 Hz) P and S waves in the region. The frequency dependent relationships for quality factors for P (Q _P) and S (Q _S) waves have been obtained using the spectral ratio method for three regions namely, Kachchh, Saurashtra and Mainland Gujarat. The earthquakes recorded at nine stations of Kachchh, five stations of Saurashtra and one station in mainland Gujarat have been used for this analysis. The estimated relations for average Q _P and Q _S are: Q _P = (105 ± 2) f ^{0.82 ± 0.01}, Q _S = (74 ± 2) f ^{1.06 ± 0.01} for Kachchh region; Q _P = (148 ± 2) f ^{0.92 ± 0.01}, Q _S = (149 ± 14) f ^{1.43 ± 0.05} for Saurashtra region and Q _P = (163 ± 7) f ^{0.77 ± 0.03}, Q _S = (118 ± 34) f ^{0.65 ± 0.14} for mainland Gujarat region. The low Q (<200) and high exponent of f (>0.5) as obtained from present analysis indicate the predominant seismic activities in the region. The lowest Q values obtained for the Kachchh region implies that the area is relatively more attenuative and heterogeneous than other two regions. A comparison between Q _S estimated in this study and coda Q (Qc) previously reported by others for Kachchh region shows that Q _C > Q _S for the frequency range of interest showing the enrichment of coda waves and the importance of scattering attenuation to the attenuation of S waves in the Kachchh region infested with faults and fractures. The Q _S/Q _P ratio is found to be less than 1 for Kachchh and Mainland Gujarat regions and close to unity for Saurashtra region. This reflects the difference in the geological composition of rocks in the regions. The frequency dependent relations developed in this study could be used for the estimation of earthquake source parameters as well as for simulating the strong earthquake ground motions in the region.     

Rayleigh wave group velocity tomography of Gujarat region,Western India and its implications to mantle dynamics

In the present study, fundamental Rayleigh waves with varying period from 10 to 80 s are used to obtain group velocity maps in the northwest Deccan Volcanic Province of India. About 350 paths are obtained using 53 earthquakes (4.8 ≤ M ≥ 7.9) recorded by the SeisNetG (Seismic Network of Gujarat). Individual dispersion curves of group velocity of Rayleigh wave for each source-station path are estimated using multiple filter technique. These curves are used to determine lateral distribution of Rayleigh wave group velocity by tomographic inversion method. Our estimated Rayleigh group velocity at varying depths showed conspicuous corroboration with three tectonic blocks [Kachchh Rift Basin (KRB), Saurashtra Horst (SH), and Mainland Gujarat (MG)] in the region. The seismically active KRB with a thicker crust is characterized as a low velocity zone at a period varying from 10 to 30 s as indicative of mantle downwarping or sagging of the mantle beneath the KRB, while the SH and MG are found to be associated with higher group velocities, indicating the existence of the reduced crustal thickness. The trend of higher group velocity was found prevailed adjacent to the Narmada and Cambay rift basins that also correspond to the reduced crust, suggesting the processes of mantle upwarping or uplifting due to mantle upwelling. The low velocities at periods longer than 40 s beneath the KRB indicate thicker lithosphere. The known Moho depth correlates well with the observed velocities at a period of about 30 s in the Gujarat region. Our estimates of relatively lower group velocities at periods varying from 70 to 80 s may correspond to the asthenospheric flow beneath the region. It is interesting to image higher group velocity for the thinner crust beneath the Arabian Sea adjacent to the west coast of Gujarat at the period of 40 s that may correspond to the upwarped or upwelled mantle beneath the Arabian Sea. Our results have better resolution estimated by a radius of equivalent circular averaging area for each period.     

Probabilistic assessment of earthquake recurrence in the January 26, 2001 earthquake region of Gujrat, India

Kutch region of Gujrat is one of the most seismic prone regions of India. Recently, it has been rocked by a large earthquake (M _w = 7.7) on January 26, 2001. The probabilities of occurrence of large earthquake (M≥6.0 and M≥5.0) in a specified interval of time for different elapsed times have been estimated on the basis of observed time-intervals between the large earthquakes (M≥6.0 and M≥5.0) using three probabilistic models, namely, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal. The earthquakes of magnitude ≥5.0 covering about 180 years have been used for this analysis. However, the method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) has been applied for computation of earthquake hazard parameters. The mean interval of occurrence of earthquakes and standard deviation are estimated as 20.18 and 8.40 years for M≥5.0 and 36.32 and 12.49 years, for M≥6.0, respectively, for this region. For the earthquakes M≥5.0, the estimated cumulative probability reaches 0.8 after about 27 years for Lognormal and Gamma models and about 28 years for Weibull model while it reaches 0.9 after about 32 years for all the models. However, for the earthquakes M≥6.0, the estimated cumulative probability reaches 0.8 after about 47 years for all the models while it reaches 0.9 after about 53, 54 and 55 years for Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal model, respectively. The conditional probability also reaches about 0.8 to 0.9 for the time period of 28 to 40 years and 50 to 60 years for M≥5.0 and M≥6.0, respectively, for all the models. The probability of occurrence of an earthquake is very high between 28 to 42 years for the magnitudes ≥5.0 and between 47 to 55 years for the magnitudes ≥6.0, respectively, past from the last earthquake (2001).     

Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Recurrence in Northeast India and Adjoining Regions

Northeast India and adjoining regions (20°–32° N and 87°–100° E) are highly vulnerable to earthquake hazard in the Indian sub-continent, which fall under seismic zones V, IV and III in the seismic zoning map of India with magnitudes M exceeding 8, 7 and 6, respectively. It has experienced two devastating earthquakes, namely, the Shillong Plateau earthquake of June 12, 1897 (M _w 8.1) and the Assam earthquake of August 15, 1950 (M _w 8.5) that caused huge loss of lives and property in the Indian sub-continent. In the present study, the probabilities of the occurrences of earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 7.0 during a specified interval of time has been estimated on the basis of three probabilistic models, namely, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal, with the help of the earthquake catalogue spanning the period 1846 to 1995. The method of maximum likelihood has been used to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters. The logarithmic probability of likelihood function (ln L) is estimated and used to compare the suitability of models and it was found that the Gamma model fits best with the actual data. The sample mean interval of occurrence of such earthquakes is estimated as 7.82 years in the northeast India region and the expected mean values for Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal distributions are estimated as 7.837, 7.820 and 8.269 years, respectively. The estimated cumulative probability for an earthquake M ≥ 7.0 reaches 0.8 after about 15–16 (2010–2011) years and 0.9 after about 18–20 (2013–2015) years from the occurrence of the last earthquake (1995) in the region. The estimated conditional probability also reaches 0.8 to 0.9 after about 13–17 (2008–2012) years in the considered region for an earthquake M ≥ 7.0 when the elapsed time is zero years. However, the conditional probability reaches 0.8 to 0.9 after about 9–13 (2018–2022) years for earthquake M ≥ 7.0 when the elapsed time is 14 years (i.e. 2009).     

Attenuation of Coda Waves in the Saurashtra Region, Gujarat (India)

The attenuation characteristics based on coda waves of two areas—Jamnagar and Junagarh of Saurashtra, Gujarat (India)—have been investigated in the present study. The frequency dependent relationships have been developed for both the areas using single back scattering model. The broadband waveforms of the vertical components of 33 earthquakes (Mw 1.5–3.5) recorded at six stations of the Jamnagar area, and broadband waveforms of 68 earthquakes (Mw 1.6–5) recorded at five stations of the Junagarh area have been used for the analysis. The estimated relations for the Junagarh area are: Q _c?=?(158?±?5)f^(0.99±0.04) (lapse time : 20?s), Q _c?=?(170?±?4.4)f^(0.97±0.02) (lapse time : 30?s) and Q _c?=?(229?±?6.6)f^(0.94±0.03) (lapse time : 40?s) and for the Jamnagar area are: Q _c?=?(178?±?3)f^(0.95±0.05) (lapse time : 20?s), Q _c?=?(224?±?6)f^(0.98±0.06) (lapse time : 30?s) and Q _c?=?(282?±?7)f^(0.91±0.03) (lapse time : 40?s). These are the first estimates for the areas under consideration. The Junagarh area appears to be more attenuative as compared to the Jamnagar area. The increase in Q _c values with lapse time found here for both the areas show the depth dependence of Q _c as longer lapse time windows will sample larger area. The rate of decay of attenuation (Q ^?1) with frequency for the relations obtained here is found to be comparable with those of other regions of the world though the absolute values differ. A comparison of the coda-Q estimated for the Saurashtra region with those of the nearby Kachchh region shows that the Saurashtra region is less heterogeneous. The obtained relations are expected to be useful for the estimation of source parameters of the earthquakes in the Saurashtra region of Gujarat where no such relations were available earlier. These relations are also important for the simulation of earthquake strong ground motions in the region.     

Stochastic finite fault modelling of M w 4.8 earthquake in Kachchh, Gujarat, India

The modified stochastic finite fault modelling technique based on dynamic corner frequency has been used to simulate the strong ground motions of M _w 4.8 earthquake in the Kachchh region of Gujarat, India. The accelerograms have been simulated for 14 strong motion accelerographs sites (11 sites in Kachchh and three sites in Saurashtra) where the earthquake has been recorded. The region-specific source, attenuation and generic site parameters, which are derived from recordings of small to moderate earthquakes, have been used for the simulations. The main characteristics of the simulated accelerograms, comprised of peak ground acceleration (pga), duration, Fourier and response spectra, predominant period, are in general in good agreement with those of observed ones at most of the sites. The rate of decay of simulated pga values with distance is found to be similar with that of observed values. The successful modelling of the empirical accelerograms indicates that the method can be used to prepare wide range of scenarios based on simulation which provide the information useful for evaluating and mitigating the seismic hazard in the region.     

Temporal distribution of earthquakes using renewal process in the Dasht-e-Bayaz region

Temporal distribution of earthquakes with M _w > 6 in the Dasht-e-Bayaz region, eastern Iran has been investigated using time-dependent models. Based on these types of models, it is assumed that the times between consecutive large earthquakes follow a certain statistical distribution. For this purpose, four time-dependent inter-event distributions including the Weibull, Gamma, Lognormal, and the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) are used in this study and the associated parameters are estimated using the method of maximum likelihood estimation. The suitable distribution is selected based on logarithm likelihood function and Bayesian Information Criterion. The probability of the occurrence of the next large earthquake during a specified interval of time was calculated for each model. Then, the concept of conditional probability has been applied to forecast the next major (M _w > 6) earthquake in the site of our interest. The emphasis is on statistical methods which attempt to quantify the probability of an earthquake occurring within a specified time, space, and magnitude windows. According to obtained results, the probability of occurrence of an earthquake with M _w > 6 in the near future is significantly high.     

Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazards in the North-East Indian Peninsula and Hindukush Regions

—The Himalayan region is one of the most seismic prone areas of the world. The North-East (NE) Indian peninsula and the Hindukush regions mark the zone of collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates. The probability of the occurrence of great earthquakes with magnitude greater than 7.0 during a specified interval of time has been estimated on the basis of four probabilistic models, namely, Weibull, Gamma, Lognormal and Exponential for the NE Indian peninsula and Hindukush regions. The model parameters have been estimated by the method of Maximum Likelihood Estimates (MLE) and the Method of Moments (MOM). The cumulative probability is estimated for a period of 40 years from 1964 and is ranging between 0.881 to 0.995 by the year 1995, using all four models for the NE Indian peninsula. The conditional probability is also estimated and it is concluded that the NE Indian peninsula would expect a great earthquake at any time in the remaining years of the present century. For the Hindukush region, the cumulative probability has already crossed its highest value, but no earthquake of magnitude greater than 7.0 has occurred after 1974 in this area. It may attribute to the occurrence of frequent shocks of moderate size, as seventeen earthquakes of magnitude greater than 6.0, including four greater than 6.4, have been reported until 1994 from this region.     

QLg tomography in Gujarat,Western India

We propose a novel Lg attenuation tomography model (Q_Lg tomography) for the state of Gujarat, Western India, using earthquake data recorded by the Gujarat Seismic Network, operated by the Institute of Seismological Research in Gandhinagar. The waveform dataset consist of 400 3-component recordings, produced by 60 earthquakes with magnitude (M_L) spanning from 3.6 to 5.1, recorded at 60 seismic stations having epicentral distances spanning between 200 and 500 km. Spectral amplitude decays for Lg wave displacement were obtained by generalized inversion at 17 frequencies spanning between 0.9 and 9 Hz. Lg wave propagation efficiency was measured by Lg/Pn spectral ratio categorizing as efficient ratio ≥6 for 86%, intermediate ratio of 3–6 for 10% and inefficient ratio <3 for 4% paths of total 400 ray paths. The earthquake size and quality of waveform recorded at dense network found sufficient to resolve lateral variation of Q_Lg in Gujarat.Average power-law attenuation relationship obtained for Gujarat as Q_Lg(f) = 234f^0.64, which corresponds to high attenuation in comparison to peninsular India shield region and other several regions around the world. Q_Lg tomography resolves the highly attenuating crust of extremely fractured Saurashtra region and tectonically active Kachchh region. The Gujarat average attenuation is also lying in between them. The low attenuation in Cambay and Narmada rift basins and extremely low attenuation in patch of Surendranagar area is identified. This study is the first attempt and can be utilized as pivotal criteria for scenario hazard assessment, as maximum hazard has been reported in highly attenuating tectonically active Kachchh region and in low attenuating Cambay, Narmada and Surendranagar regions. The site and source terms are also obtained along with the Q_Lg inversion. The estimated site responses are comparable with observed local geological condition and agree with the previously reported site amplifications at the same sites. The source terms are comparable with local magnitude estimated from Network. The M_w (Lg) is nearly equivalent to M_L (GSN) and the slight differences are noted for larger magnitude events.     

Statistical prediction of the next great earthquake around Tehran,Iran

The analysis of seismic activity variations with space and time is a complex problem. Several statistical methods have been adopted to study these variations. One of the tasks that has attracted the attention of the seismological and statistical community is to explain seismicity patterns by statistical models and apply the results for earthquake prediction. Here the probability distribution of recurrence times as described by Exponential, Gamma, Lognormal, Pareto, Rayleigh and Weibull probability distributions and the idea of conditional probability has been applied to predict the next great (Ms ≥ 6.0 and Ms ≥ 6.5) earthquake around Tehran (r ≤ 200 km). Conditional probability specifies the likelihood that a given earthquake will happen within a specified time. This likelihood is based on the information about past earthquake occurrences in the given region and the basic assumption that future seismic activity will follow the pattern of past activity. The rapid growth of Tehran to approximately 12 million inhabitants has resulted in a much more rapid increase in its vulnerability to natural disasters, especially earthquakes. Several earthquakes affected this region in the past, mostly on the Mosha, Taleqan, Eyvankey and Garmsar faults. The estimated recurrence times for Exponential, Gamma, Lognormal, Pareto, Rayleigh and Weibull distributions has been computed to be 66.64, 14.79, 26.88, 2.37, 67.58 and 80.47, respectively. Accordingly, one may expect that a large damaging earthquake may occur around Tehran approximately every 10 years.     

Visibility Graph Analysis of the 2003–2012 Earthquake Sequence in the Kachchh Region of Western India

A visibility graph (VG) is a rather novel statistical method in earthquake sequence analysis; it maps a time series into networks or graphs, converting dynamical properties of the time series into topological properties of networks. By using the VG approach, we defined the parameter window mean interval connectivity time <T_c>, that informs about the mean linkage time between earthquakes. We analysed the time variation of <T_c> in the aftershock-depleted catalogue of Kachchh Gujarat (Western India) seismicity from 2003 to 2012, and we found that <T_c>: i) changes through time, indicating that the topological properties of the earthquake network are not stationary; and, ii) appeared to significantly decrease before the largest shock (M5.7) that occurred on March 7, 2006 near the Gedi fault, an active fault in the Kachchh region.     

Paleoseismic study of the Kamishiro Fault on the northern segment of the Itoigawa–Shizuoka Tectonic Line,Japan

The M_w 6.2 (Mj 6.8) Nagano (Japan) earthquake of 22 November 2014 produced a 9.3-km long surface rupture zone with a thrust-dominated displacement of up to 1.5 m, which duplicated the pre-existing Kamishiro Fault along the Itoigawa–Shizuoka Tectonic Line (ISTL), the plate-boundary between the Eurasian and North American plates, northern Nagano Prefecture, central Japan. To characterize the activity of the seismogenic fault zone, we conducted a paleoseismic study of the Kamishiro Fault. Field investigations and trench excavations revealed that seven morphogenic paleohistorical earthquakes (E2–E8) prior to the 2014 M_w 6.2 Nagano earthquake (E1) have occurred on the Kamishiro Fault during the last ca. 6000 years. Three of these events (E2–E4) are well constrained and correspond to historical earthquakes occurring in the last ca. 1200 years. This suggests an average recurrence interval of ca. 300–400 years on the seismogenic fault of the 2014 Kamishiro earthquake in the past 1200 years. The most recent event prior to the 2014 earthquakes (E1) is E2 and the penultimate and antepenultimate faulting events are E3 and E4, respectively. The penultimate faulting event (E3) occurred during the period of AD 1800–1400 and is associated with the 1791 M_w 6.8 earthquake. The antepenultimate faulting event (E4) is inferred to have occurred during the period of ca. AD 1000–700, likely corresponding to the AD 841 M_w 6.5 earthquake. The oldest faulting event (E8) in the study area is thought to have occurred during the period of ca. 5600–6000 years. The throw rate during the early Holocene is estimated to be 1.2–3.3 mm/a (average, 2.2 mm/a) with an average amount of characteristic offset of 0.7–1.1 m produced by individual event. When compared with active intraplate faults on Honshu Island, Japan, these slip rates and recurrence interval estimated for morphogenic earthquakes on the Kamishiro Fault along the ISTL appear high and short, respectively. This indicates that present activity on this fault is closely related to seismic faulting along the plate boundary between the Eurasian and North American plates.     

Reappraised list of historical earthquakes that affected Israel and its close surroundings

Numerous historical reports of damaging earthquakes in the Levant have accumulated over the last 3000 years. Here, we screen that information and focus on the damaging earthquakes that affected Israel from the second millennia BCE to the 1927 CE Jericho earthquake and list the earthquakes by date, of major damage, type of sequence, and degree of size. The compilation results in three different lists: (i) 71 reliable earthquakes that in our opinion were most probably associated with the Dead Sea Transform (DST) and affected Israel and its close surroundings; (ii) 41 questionable earthquakes that should be re-evaluated or ignored; and (iii) 46 earthquakes that probably occurred but were erroneously associated with damage in Israel. What emerges from the list of the reliable earthquakes is that (i) Israel and its close surroundings suffered damage about 32 times during the last two millennia, that is, once in about 60 years, although not regularly; (ii) 21 of the earthquakes occurred during the last millennia, i.e., an event every ～45 years; and (iii) three intervals of increased reporting are noticed: between the fourth and the mid-eighth century, from the beginning of the eleventh to the end of the thirteenth century, and from the end of the eighteenth century up to the last entry in 1927, though this period may be extended until today. In-depth evaluation of the changing regimes over time within the study area, the historical reports of earthquake damage outside of Israel, and comparison with physical paleo- and archaeo-seismology evidence, such as the “137–206” and “165–236” paleoseismic earthquakes for which there is no historical match, indicates that the historical list is far from being complete. Thus, we argue that the apparent cycles of historical reporting do not necessarily reflect the actual rate of seismic activity and further investigation is needed to establish a compiled, multi-sourced list to decipher the true nature of cycles of strong earthquakes in this region during historical times.     

Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazards in the Indian Subcontinent

—The Indian subcontinent is one of the most seismic prone areas of the world. The Himalayan mountains in the north, mid-oceanic ridges in the south and earthquake belts surrounding the Indian plate all show that the subcontinent has undergone extensive geological and tectonic processes in the past. The probability of the occurrence of earthquakes with magnitude 6<Mb<7 during a specified interval of time has been estimated on the basis of four probabilistic models namely Lognormal, Weibull, Gamma and Exponential distribution for the Indian subcontinent. The seismicity map has been prepared using the earthquake catalogue from the period 1963–1994, and six different zones have been identified on the basis of clustering of events. The model parameters have been estimated by the method of maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) and method of moments (MOM). A computer program package has been developed for all four models, which represents the distributions of time intervals fairly well. The logarithmic of likelihood (ln L) is estimated for testing the models and different models have been found to be plausible. The probability of different magnitude thresholds has been evaluated using the Gutenberg–Richter formula Log N = a - bM for magnitude distribution. The constants a and b have been computed for each region and found to be varying between 5.46–8.53 and 0.87–1.34, respectively.     

Simulations of Seismic Hazard for the Pacific Northwest of the United States from Earthquakes Associated with the Cascadia Subduction Zone

-- We investigate the impact of different rupture and attenuation models for the Cascadia subduction zone by simulating seismic hazard models for the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. at 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. We calculate the sensitivity of hazard (probabilistic ground motions) to the source parameters and the attenuation relations for both intraslab and interface earthquakes and present these in the framework of the standard USGS hazard model that includes crustal earthquakes. Our results indicate that allowing the deep intraslab earthquakes to occur anywhere along the subduction zone increases the peak ground acceleration hazard near Portland, Oregon by about 20%. Alternative attenuation relations for deep earthquakes can result in ground motions that differ by a factor of two. The hazard uncertainty for the plate interface and intraslab earthquakes is analyzed through a Monte-Carlo logic tree approach and indicates a seismic hazard exceeding 1 g (0.2 s spectral acceleration) consistent with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps in western Washington, Oregon, and California and an overall coefficient of variation that ranges from 0.1 to 0.4. Sensitivity studies indicate that the paleoseismic chronology and the magnitude of great plate interface earthquakes contribute significantly to the hazard uncertainty estimates for this region. Paleoseismic data indicate that the mean earthquake recurrence interval for great earthquakes is about 500 years and that it has been 300 years since the last great earthquake. We calculate the probability of such a great earthquake along the Cascadia plate interface to be about 14% when considering a time-dependent model and about 10% when considering a time-independent Poisson model during the next 50-year interval.     

Comparison Between LURR and State Vector Analysis Before Strong Earthquakes in Southern California Since 1980

There are seven strong earthquakes with M ≥ 6.5 that occurred in southern California during the period from 1980 to 2005. In this paper, these earthquakes were studied by the LURR (Load/Unload Response Ratio) method and the State Vector method to detect if there are anomalies before them. The results show that LURR anomalies appeared before 6 earthquakes out of 7 and State Vector anomalies appeared before all 7 earthquakes. For the LURR method, the interval between maximum LURR value and the forthcoming earthquake is 1 to 19 months, and the dominant mean interval is about 10.7 months. For the State Vector method, the interval between the maximum modulus of increment State Vector and the forthcoming earthquake is from 3 to 27 months, but the dominant mean interval between the occurrence time of the maximum State Vector anomaly and the forthcoming earthquake is about 4.7 months. The results also show that the minimum valid space window scale for the LURR and the State Vector is a circle with a radius of 100 km and a square of 3°×3°, respectively. These results imply that the State Vector method is more effective for short-term earthquake prediction than the LURR method, however the LURR method is more effective for location prediction than the State Vector method.     

环太平洋大震的时空特征分析

本文基于聚类分析方法和聚类树图, 对1890年以来环太平洋周边7.5级以上大震的时间间隔特征进行分析, 发现起始震级低于8.0级的地震分类特征一致, 而起始震级在8.0级以上地震分类特征比较详细: 在初步分为地震活跃期和地震平静期时, 在地震活跃期内, 又可细分为地震活动相对高活跃期(时间间隔1年左右)和地震活动相对低活跃期(时间间隔6年左右)。 进而, 以8.0级以上地震最后一个活跃期为例, 揭示了在地震活跃期内, 地震的空间迁移表现出逆时针旋转的特征。     

The 2014–2015 earthquake series in the northern Upper Rhine Graben,Central Europe

Since March 2014, an unusually large amount of earthquakes occur southeast of the city of Darmstadt in the northern Upper Rhine Graben. During the period, until April 2015, we have recorded 356 earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from M_L?=??0.6 to 4.2. We identified two source clusters separated laterally by about 5 km. The hypocentres within these clusters are aligned vertically extending over a depth range from 1 to 8 km with a lateral extent of about 1 to 2 km. Focal mechanisms show left-lateral strike-slip movements; b values are changing with time between b?=?0.6 and b?=?0.9. This is the first time in almost 150 years that such high earthquake rates have been observed in the region. Historical accounts dating back to the nineteenth century report of over 2000 felt earthquakes over a time span from 1869 to 1871. From these, maximum intensities of VII have been estimated. Other seismic activities in the region were reported in the 1970s. The observations of the 2014–2015 earthquake series do not completely match a typical main shock–aftershock sequence or a typical earthquake swarm. Especially the activity at the beginning of the earthquake series may be considered as a mixture of a main shock–aftershock sequence and a short-lasting swarm event. Whether or not the time gap between the current seismic activity, which actually takes place at the same locations as parts of the seismic swarm in 1869–1871, and the seismic activity in the nineteenth century or the seismic activity in the 1970s can be interpreted as a seismic cycle remains unclear.