Tsunami Source of the 2010 Mentawai, Indonesia Earthquake Inferred from Tsunami Field Survey and Waveform Modeling

The 2010 Mentawai earthquake (magnitude 7.7) generated a destructive tsunami that caused more than 500 casualties in the Mentawai Islands, west of Sumatra, Indonesia. Seismological analyses indicate that this earthquake was an unusual “tsunami earthquake,” which produces much larger tsunamis than expected from the seismic magnitude. We carried out a field survey to measure tsunami heights and inundation distances, an inversion of tsunami waveforms to estimate the slip distribution on the fault, and inundation modeling to compare the measured and simulated tsunami heights. The measured tsunami heights at eight locations on the west coasts of North and South Pagai Island ranged from 2.5 to 9.3 m, but were mostly in the 4–7 m range. At three villages, the tsunami inundation extended more than 300 m. Interviews of local residents indicated that the earthquake ground shaking was less intense than during previous large earthquakes and did not cause any damage. Inversion of tsunami waveforms recorded at nine coastal tide gauges, a nearby GPS buoy, and a DART station indicated a large slip (maximum 6.1 m) on a shallower part of the fault near the trench axis, a distribution similar to other tsunami earthquakes. The total seismic moment estimated from tsunami waveform inversion was 1.0 × 10²¹ Nm, which corresponded to M_w 7.9. Computed coastal tsunami heights from this tsunami source model using linear equations are similar to the measured tsunami heights. The inundation heights computed by using detailed bathymetry and topography data and nonlinear equations including inundation were smaller than the measured ones. This may have been partly due to the limited resolution and accuracy of publically available bathymetry and topography data. One-dimensional run-up computations using our surveyed topography profiles showed that the computed heights were roughly similar to the measured ones.     

Combined Effects of Tectonic and Landslide-Generated Tsunami Runup at Seward, Alaska During the M W 9.2 1964 Earthquake

We apply a recently developed and validated numerical model of tsunami propagation and runup to study the inundation of Resurrection Bay and the town of Seward by the 1964 Alaska tsunami. Seward was hit by both tectonic and landslide-generated tsunami waves during the $M_{\rm W}$ 9.2 1964 megathrust earthquake. The earthquake triggered a series of submarine mass failures around the fjord, which resulted in landsliding of part of the coastline into the water, along with the loss of the port facilities. These submarine mass failures generated local waves in the bay within 5?min of the beginning of strong ground motion. Recent studies estimate the total volume of underwater slide material that moved in Resurrection Bay to be about 211?million m³ (Haeussler et?al. in Submarine mass movements and their consequences, pp 269?C278, 2007). The first tectonic tsunami wave arrived in Resurrection Bay about 30?min after the main shock and was about the same height as the local landslide-generated waves. Our previous numerical study, which focused only on the local landslide-generated waves in Resurrection Bay, demonstrated that they were produced by a number of different slope failures, and estimated relative contributions of different submarine slide complexes into tsunami amplitudes (Suleimani et?al. in Pure Appl Geophys 166:131?C152, 2009). This work extends the previous study by calculating tsunami inundation in Resurrection Bay caused by the combined impact of landslide-generated waves and the tectonic tsunami, and comparing the composite inundation area with observations. To simulate landslide tsunami runup in Seward, we use a viscous slide model of Jiang and LeBlond (J Phys Oceanogr 24(3):559?C572, 1994) coupled with nonlinear shallow water equations. The input data set includes a high resolution multibeam bathymetry and LIDAR topography grid of Resurrection Bay, and an initial thickness of slide material based on pre- and post-earthquake bathymetry difference maps. For simulation of tectonic tsunami runup, we derive the 1964 coseismic deformations from detailed slip distribution in the rupture area, and use them as an initial condition for propagation of the tectonic tsunami. The numerical model employs nonlinear shallow water equations formulated for depth-averaged water fluxes, and calculates a temporal position of the shoreline using a free-surface moving boundary algorithm. We find that the calculated tsunami runup in Seward caused first by local submarine landslide-generated waves, and later by a tectonic tsunami, is in good agreement with observations of the inundation zone. The analysis of inundation caused by two different tsunami sources improves our understanding of their relative contributions, and supports tsunami risk mitigation in south-central Alaska. The record of the 1964 earthquake, tsunami, and submarine landslides, combined with the high-resolution topography and bathymetry of Resurrection Bay make it an ideal location for studying tectonic tsunamis in coastal regions susceptible to underwater landslides.     

Salinity in Soils and Tsunami Deposits in Areas Affected by the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan Tsunamis

The accumulation of data sets of past tsunamis is the most basic but reliable way to prepare for future tsunamis because the frequency of tsunami occurrence and their magnitude can be estimated by historical records of tsunamis. Investigation of tsunami deposits preserved in geological layers is an effective measure to understand ancient tsunamis that occurred before historical records began. However, the areas containing tsunami deposits can be narrower than the area of tsunami inundation, thus resulting in underestimation of the magnitude of past tsunamis. A field survey was conducted after the 2010 Chile tsunami and 2011 Japan tsunami to investigate the chemical properties of the tsunami-inundated soil to examine the applicability of tsunami inundation surveys considering water-soluble salts in soil. The soil and tsunami deposits collected in the tsunami-inundated areas are rich in water-soluble ions (Na⁺, Mg²⁺, Cl^?, Br^? and SO ₄ ^2? ) compared with the samples collected in the non-inundated areas. The analytical result that the ratios of Na⁺, Mg²⁺, Br^? and SO ₄ ^2? to Cl^? are nearly the same in the tsunami deposits and in the tsunami-inundated soil suggests that the deposition of these ions resulting from the tsunami inundation does not depend on whether or not tsunami deposits exist. Discriminant analysis of the tsunami-inundated areas using the ion contents shows the high applicability of these ions to the detection of tsunami inundation during periods when the amount of rainfall is limited. To examine the applicability of this method to palaeotsunamis, the continuous monitoring of water-soluble ions in tsunami-inundated soil is needed as a future study.     

Nearshore Tsunami Inundation Model Validation: Toward Sediment Transport Applications

Model predictions from a numerical model, Delft3D, based on the nonlinear shallow water equations are compared with analytical results and laboratory observations from seven tsunami-like benchmark experiments, and with field observations from the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The model accurately predicts the magnitude and timing of the measured water levels and flow velocities, as well as the magnitude of the maximum inundation distance and run-up, for both breaking and non-breaking waves. The shock-capturing numerical scheme employed describes well the total decrease in wave height due to breaking, but does not reproduce the observed shoaling near the break point. The maximum water levels observed onshore near Kuala Meurisi, Sumatra, following the 26 December 2004 tsunami are well predicted given the uncertainty in the model setup. The good agreement between the model predictions and the analytical results and observations demonstrates that the numerical solution and wetting and drying methods employed are appropriate for modeling tsunami inundation for breaking and non-breaking long waves. Extension of the model to include sediment transport may be appropriate for long, non-breaking tsunami waves. Using available sediment transport formulations, the sediment deposit thickness at Kuala Meurisi is predicted generally within a factor of 2.     

Modeling of the 2011 Japan Tsunami: Lessons for Near-Field Forecast

During the devastating 11 March 2011 Japanese tsunami, data from two tsunami detectors were used to determine the tsunami source within 1.5 h of earthquake origin time. For the first time, multiple near-field tsunami measurements of the 2011 Japanese tsunami were used to demonstrate the accuracy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) real-time flooding forecast system in the far field. To test the accuracy of the same forecast system in the near field, a total of 11 numerical models with grids telescoped to 2 arcsec (~60 m) were developed to hindcast the propagation and coastal inundation of the 2011 Japanese tsunami along the entire east coastline of Japan. Using the NOAA tsunami source computed in near real-time, the model results of tsunami propagation are validated with tsunami time series measured at different water depths offshore and near shore along Japan’s coastline. The computed tsunami runup height and spatial distribution are highly consistent with post-tsunami survey data collected along the Japanese coastline. The computed inundation penetration also agrees well with survey data, giving a modeling accuracy of 85.5 % for the inundation areas along 800 km of coastline between Ibaraki Prefecture (north of Kashima) and Aomori Prefecture (south of Rokkasho). The inundation model results highlighted the variability of tsunami impact in response to different offshore bathymetry and flooded terrain. Comparison of tsunami sources inferred from different indirect methods shows the crucial importance of deep-ocean tsunami measurements for real-time tsunami forecasts. The agreement between model results and observations along Japan’s coastline demonstrate the ability and potential of NOAA’s methodology for real-time near-field tsunami flooding forecasts. An accurate tsunami flooding forecast within 30 min may now be possible using the NOAA forecast methodology with carefully placed tsunameters and large-scale high-resolution inundation models with powerful computing capabilities.     

The 11 March 2011 Tohoku Tsunami Survey in Rikuzentakata and Comparison with Historical Events

On 11 March 2011, a moment magnitude M _w = 9.0 earthquake occurred off the Japan Tohoku coast causing catastrophic damage and loss of human lives. In the immediate aftermath of the earthquake, we conducted the reconnaissance survey in the city of Rikuzentakata, Japan. In comparison with three previous historical tsunamis impacting the same region, the 2011 event presented the largest values with respect to the tsunami height, the inundation area and the inundation distance. A representative tsunami height of 15 m was recorded in Rikuzentakata, with increased heights of 20 m around rocky headlands. In terms of the inundation area, the 2011 Tohoku tsunami exceeded by almost 2.6 times the area flooded by the 1960 Chilean tsunami, which ranks second among the four events compared. The maximum tsunami inundation distance was 8.1 km along the Kesen River, exceeding the 1933 Showa and 1960 Chilean tsunami inundations by factors of 6.2 and 2.7, respectively. The overland tsunami inundation distance was less than 2 km. The tsunami inundation height linearly decreased along the Kesen River at a rate of approximately 1 m/km. Nevertheless, the measured inland tsunami heights exhibit significant variations on local and regional scales. A designated “tsunami control forest” planted with a cross-shore width of about 200 m along a 2 km stretch of Rikuzentakata coastline was completely overrun and failed to protect the local community during this extreme event. Similarly, many designated tsunami shelters were too low and were overwashed by tsunami waves, thereby failing to provide shelter for evacuees—a risk that had been underestimated.     

Field Measurements and Numerical Simulations of the 2004 Tsunami Impact on the East Coast of Sri Lanka

This paper employs a numerical model of tsunami propagation together with documented observations and field measurements of the evidence left behind by the tsunami in December 2004, to identify and interpret the factors that have contributed to the significant spatial variability of the level of tsunami impact along the coastal belt of the eastern province of Sri Lanka. The model results considered in the present analysis include the distribution of the amplitude of the tsunami and the pattern of wave propagation over the continental shelf off the east coast, while the field data examined comprise the maximum water levels measured at or near the shoreline, the horizontal inundation distances and the number of housing and other buildings damaged. The computed maximum amplitude of the tsunami at water points nearest the shoreline along the east coast shows considerable variation ranging from 2.2 m to 11.4 m with a mean value of 5.7 m; moreover, the computed amplitudes agree well with the available field measurements. We also show that the shelf bathymetry off the east coast, particularly the submarine canyons at several locations, significantly influences the near-shore transformation of tsunami waves, and consequently, the spatial variation of the maximum water levels along the coastline. The measured values of inundation also show significant variation along the east coast and range from 70 m to 4560 m with a median value of 700 m. Our analyses of field data also show the dominant influence of the coastal topography and geomorphology on the extent of tsunami inundation. Furthermore, the measured inundation distances indicate no apparent correlation with the computed tsunami heights at the respective locations. We also show that both the computed tsunami heights and the measured inundation distances for the east coast closely follow the log-normal statistical distribution.     

W Phase Inversion and Tsunami Inundation Modeling for Tsunami Early Warning: Case Study for the 2011 Tohoku Event

Centroid moment tensor solutions for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake are determined by W phase inversions using 5 and 10 min data recorded by the Full Range Seismograph Network of Japan (F-net). By a scaling relation of moment magnitude to rupture area and an assumption of rigidity of 4 × 10¹⁰ N m^?2, simple rectangular earthquake fault models are estimated from the solutions. Tsunami inundations in the Sendai Plain, Minamisanriku, Rikuzentakata, and Taro are simulated using the estimated fault models. Then the simulated tsunami inundation area and heights are compared with the observations. Even the simulated tsunami heights and inundations from the W phase solution that used only 5 min data are considerably similar to the observations. The results are improved when using 10 min of W phase data. These show that the W phase solutions are reliable to be used for tsunami inundation modeling. Furthermore, the technique that combines W phase inversion and tsunami inundation modeling can produce results that have sufficient accuracy for tsunami early warning purposes.     

Bayesian tsunami fragility modeling considering input data uncertainty

Empirical tsunami fragility curves are developed based on a Bayesian framework by accounting for uncertainty of input tsunami hazard data in a systematic and comprehensive manner. Three fragility modeling approaches, i.e. lognormal method, binomial logistic method, and multinomial logistic method, are considered, and are applied to extensive tsunami damage data for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. A unique aspect of this study is that uncertainty of tsunami inundation data (i.e. input hazard data in fragility modeling) is quantified by comparing two tsunami inundation/run-up datasets (one by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transportation of the Japanese Government and the other by the Tohoku Tsunami Joint Survey group) and is then propagated through Bayesian statistical methods to assess the effects on the tsunami fragility models. The systematic implementation of the data and methods facilitates the quantitative comparison of tsunami fragility models under different assumptions. Such comparison shows that the binomial logistic method with un-binned data is preferred among the considered models; nevertheless, further investigations related to multinomial logistic regression with un-binned data are required. Finally, the developed tsunami fragility functions are integrated with building damage-loss models to investigate the influences of different tsunami fragility curves on tsunami loss estimation. Numerical results indicate that the uncertainty of input tsunami data is not negligible (coefficient of variation of 0.25) and that neglecting the input data uncertainty leads to overestimation of the model uncertainty.     

Validation and Verification of a Numerical Model for Tsunami Propagation and Runup

A robust numerical model to simulate propagation and runup of tsunami waves in the framework of non-linear shallow water theory is developed. The numerical code adopts a staggered leapfrog finite-difference scheme to solve the shallow water equations formulated for depth-averaged water fluxes in spherical coordinates. A temporal position of the shoreline is calculated using a free-surface moving boundary algorithm. For large scale problems, the developed algorithm is efficiently parallelized employing a domain decomposition technique. The developed numerical model is benchmarked in an exhaustive series of tests suggested by NOAA. We conducted analytical and laboratory benchmarking for the cases of solitary wave runup on simple beaches, runup of a solitary wave on a conically-shaped island, and the runup in the Monai Valley, Okushiri Island, Japan, during the 1993 Hokkaido-Nansei-Oki tsunami. In all conducted tests the calculated numerical solution is within an accuracy recommended by NOAA standards. We summarize results of numerical benchmarking of the model, its strengths and limits with regards to reproduction of fundamental features of coastal inundation, and also illustrate some possible improvements.     

Sensitivity Study of Hydrodynamic Parameters During Numerical Simulations of Tsunami Inundation

This paper describes the analysis of a parameter, “hydrodynamic demand,” which can be used to represent the potential for tsunami drag force related damage to structures along coastlines. It is derived from the ratio of drag force to hydrostatic force caused by a tsunami on the structure. It varies according to the instantaneous values of the current velocities and flow depths during a tsunami inundation. To examine the effects of a tsunami in the present study, the analyses were performed using the tsunami numerical model in two altered regular-shaped basins having different bottom slopes. The simulations were implemented using a single sinusoidal wave with particular initial conditions, such as leading elevation wave and leading depression wave profiles with different wave periods. Two different initial wave amplitudes were employed to assess the diversity in the distribution of the square of the Froude number Fr ² along the coastline. The numerical results were compared quantitatively.     

Validation and Joint Inversion of Teleseismic Waveforms for Earthquake Source Models Using Deep Ocean Bottom Pressure Records: A Case Study of the 2006 Kuril Megathrust Earthquake

The importance of accurate tsunami simulation has increased since the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and the Indian Ocean tsunami that followed it, because it is an important tool for inundation mapping and, potentially, tsunami warning. An important source of uncertainty in tsunami simulations is the source model, which is often estimated from some combination of seismic, geodetic or geological data. A magnitude 8.3 earthquake that occurred in the Kuril subduction zone on 15 November, 2006 resulted in the first teletsunami to be widely recorded by bottom pressure recorders deployed in the northern Pacific Ocean. Because these recordings were unaffected by shallow complicated bathymetry near the coast, this provides a unique opportunity to investigate whether seismic rupture models can be inferred from teleseismic waves with sufficient accuracy to be used to forecast teletsunami. In this study, we estimated the rupture model of the 2006 Kuril earthquake by inverting the teleseimic waves and used that to model the tsunami source. The tsunami propagation was then calculated by solving the linear long-wave equations. We found that the simulated 2006 Kuril tsunami compared very well to the ocean bottom recordings when simultaneously using P and long-period surface waves in the earthquake source process inversion.     

The 2011 Tohoku-oki Earthquake Tsunami: Similarities and Differences to the 869 Jogan Tsunami on the Sendai Plain

A post-tsunami field survey following the 2011 Tohoku-oki Earthquake Tsunami was carried out to asses inundated area in Sendai Plain, Northeast Japan. The type of inundation was classified into two categories (major and minor) according to the amount of accumulated debris, garbage and sediment. Major and minor inundations were identified up to 4 and 5 km from the coastline, respectively. Many artificial geomorphological features, such as roadway embankments and canals, were believed to have affected the run-up process of the tsunami. The inundation area of the 2011 tsunami on the Sendai Plain is compared with that of the 869 Jogan tsunami, which was reconstructed using numerical modeling based on available historical and geological records. The inundation area of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami is comparable to that of the 869 Jogan tsunami, although a direct comparison is difficult due to differences in geomorphological contexts between the paleo period and the present.     

Inundation flow velocity of tsunami on land

An estimation of tsunami inundation flow velocity is one of the most challenging issues among tsunami research. Based on field data of inundation depth and inundation flow velocity u estimated using Bernoulli's theorem and inundation depth, fundamental characteristics of the relationship between inundation flow velocity and inundation depth are examined. Fundamental characteristics of the velocity coefficient where g is gravitational acceleration, h_f and h_r are inundation depths at the front and the back of structures such as a rectangular building with vertical walls, respectively) implicitly included in the relationship are examined through hydraulic experiments. As a result, C_v = 0.6 is recommended as its simple and practical value. It is confirmed through these examinations that the Froude number, defined by where , ranges 0.7–2.0, and when C_v = 0.6 is adopted this Froude number ranges 0.42–1.2. By using the relationship and C_v = 0.6, two simple and practical relationships are presented for two cases where inundation flow velocity exerts the largest or the smallest fluid force on structures. These relationships can be used to roughly grasp the practical side of tsunami damage, and estimate fluid force acting on individual structures, moving velocity and collision force of floating objects and sediment transport such as boulder and sand. Fundamental characteristics of the waterline (tsunami trace) distribution around/on the typical object model (square pillar, corn and column) are also examined through steady flow experiments, and it is confirmed that the maximum and the minimum values of h_f/h₀ in the full type model of the square pillar are almost the same as those of h_f/h_r obtained by field surveys where h₀ is uniform flow depth. It is also confirmed that h_r ? h₀ when the Froude number, defined by where u₀ is uniform flow velocity, is much less than 1.0. Using a newly defined velocity coefficient, tsunami inundation flow velocity on land can be estimated practically and would be useful for checking proposed sediment transport models that are now being developed by tsunami geologists.     

Coastal sedimentation associated with the December 12th, 1992 tsunami in Flores,Indonesia

This paper presents the result of a detailed granulometric investigation of sediments deposited by a modern tsunami, the 1992 tsunami in Flores, Indonesia. Eyewitness accounts indicate that sediments were deposited upon coastal lowlands over wide areas as a result of the tsunami inundation. Distinctive vertical and lateral variations in particle size composition are characteristic features of the tsunami deposits and these are intimately related to sedimentary processes associated with flood inundation. The geomorphological and sedimentary evidence is used here to establish a preliminary model of tsunami sedimentation. This information is believed to be of great value in understanding sedimentary processes associated with tsunami flooding and in the interpretation of palaeo-tsunami deposits.     

Tsunami simulations on several scales

The tsunami event generated by the great Sumatra–Andaman earthquake on 26 December 2004 was simulated with the recently developed model TsunAWI. The model is based on the finite element method, which allows for a very flexible discretization of the model domain. This is demonstrated by a triangulation of the whole Indian Ocean with a resolution of about 14 km in the deep ocean but a considerably higher resolution of about 500 m in the coastal area. A special focus is put on the Banda Aceh region in the Northern tip of Sumatra. This area was heavily hit by the tsunami and the highest resolution in this area is about 40 m in order to include inundation processes in the model simulation. We compare model results to tide gauge data from all around the Indian Ocean, to satellite altimetry, and field measurements of flow depth in selected locations of the Aceh region. Furthermore, we compare the model results of TsunAWI to the results of a nested grid model (TUNAMI-N3) with the same initial conditions and identical bathymetry and topography in the Aceh region. It turns out that TsunAWI gives accurate estimates of arrival times in distant locations and in the same mesh gives good inundation results when compared to field measurements and nested grid results.     

Evaluation of the use of paleotsunami deposits to reconstruct inundation distance and runup heights associated with prehistoric inundation events,Crescent City,southern Cascadia margin

Historic‐ and prehistoric‐tsunami sand deposits are used to independently establish runup records for tsunami hazard mitigation and modeled runup verification in Crescent City, California, located in the southern Cascadia Subduction Zone. Inundation from historic (1964) farfield tsunami (~5–6 m runup height) left sand sheet deposits (100–200 m width) in wetlands located behind a low beach ridge [3–4 m elevation of the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD88)]. The most landward flooding lines (4·5–5 m elevation) in high‐gradient alluvial wetlands exceed the 1964 sand sheet records of inundation by 1–2 m in elevation. The most landward flooding in low‐gradient alluvial wetlands exceed the corresponding sand sheet record of inundation distance by 1000 m. Nevertheless, the sand sheet record is an important proxy for high‐velocity inundation. Sand sheet deposition from the 1964 historic tsunami closely corresponds to the landward extent of large debris transport and structural damage in the Crescent City waterfront. The sand sheet deposits provide a proxy for maximum hazard or ‘kill zone’ in the study area. Six paleotsunami sand sheets (0·3–3 ka) are recorded in the back‐ridge marshes in Crescent City, yielding a ~450 year mean recurrence interval for nearfield Cascadia tsunami. Two paleotsunami sand deposit records, likely correlated to Cascadia ruptures between 1·0 and 1·5 ka, are traced to 1·2 km distance and 9–10 m elevation, as adjusted for paleo‐sea level. The paleotsunami sand deposits demonstrate at least twice the runup height, and four times the inundation distance of the farfield 1964 tsunami sand sheet in the same marsh system. The preserved paleotsunami deposits in Crescent City are compared to the most landward flooding, as modeled by other investigators from a predicted Cascadia (~ Mw 9) rupture. The short geologic record (~1·5 ka) yields slightly lower runup records than those predicted for the modeled Mw 9 rupture scenario in the same marsh, but it generally verifies predicted maximum tsunami runup for use in the planning of emergency response and rapid evacuation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical Simulation of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami Based on a New Transient FEM Co-seismic Source: Comparison to Far- and Near-Field Observations

In this work, we simulate the 2011 M9 Tohoku-Oki tsunami using new coseismic tsunami sources based on inverting onshore and offshore geodetic data, using 3D Finite Element Models (FEM). Such FEMs simulate elastic dislocations along the plate boundary interface separating the stiff subducting Pacific Plate from the relatively weak forearc and volcanic arc of the overriding Eurasian plate. Due in part to the simulated weak forearc materials, such sources produce significant shallow slip (several tens of meters) along the updip portion of the rupture near the trench. To assess the accuracy of the new approach, we compare observations and numerical simulations of the tsunami's far- and near-field coastal impact for: (i) one of the standard seismic inversion sources (UCSB; Shao et al. 2011); and (ii) the new FEM sources. Specifically, results of numerical simulations for both sources, performed using the fully nonlinear and dispersive Boussinesq wave model FUNWAVE-TVD, are compared to DART buoy, GPS tide gauge, and inundation/runup measurements. We use a series of nested model grids with varying resolution (down to 250 m nearshore) and size, and assess effects on model results of the latter and of model physics (such as when including dispersion or not). We also assess the effects of triggering the tsunami sources in the propagation model: (i) either at once as a hot start, or with the spatiotemporal sequence derived from seismic inversion; and (ii) as a specified surface elevation or as a more realistic time and space-varying bottom boundary condition (in the latter case, we compute the initial tsunami generation up to 300 s using the non-hydrostatic model NHWAVE). Although additional refinements are expected in the near future, results based on the current FEM sources better explain long wave near-field observations at DART and GPS buoys near Japan, and measured tsunami inundation, while they simulate observations at distant DART buoys as well or better than the UCSB source. None of the sources, however, are able to explain the largest runup and inundation measured between 39.5° and 40.25°N, which could be due to insufficient model resolution in this region (Sanriku/Ria) of complex bathymetry/topography, and/or to additional tsunami generation mechanisms not represented in the coseismic sources (e.g., splay faults, submarine mass failure). This will be the object of future work.     

Estimating tsunami inundation from hurricane storm surge predictions along the U.S. gulf coast

Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coasts have been included in the U.S. Tsunami Warning System since 2005. While the tsunami risk for the GOM is low, tsunamis generated by local submarine landslides pose the greatest potential threat, as evidenced by several large ancient submarine mass failures identified in the northern GOM basin. Given the lack of significant historical tsunami evidence in the GOM, the potential threat of landslide tsunamis in this region is assessed from a worst-case scenario perspective based on a set of events including the large ancient failures and most likely extreme events determined by a probabilistic approach. Since tsunamis are not well-understood along the Gulf Coast, we investigate tsunami inundation referenced to category-specific hurricane storm surge levels, which are relatively well established along the Gulf Coast, in order to provide information for assessing the potential threat of tsunamis which is more understandable and accessible to emergency managers. Based on tsunami inundation studies prepared for the communities of South Padre Island, TX, Galveston, TX, Mobile, AL, Panama City, FL, and Tampa, FL, we identify regional trends of tsunami inundation in terms of modeled storm surge inundation. The general trends indicate that tsunami inundation can well exceed the level of storm surge from major hurricanes in open beachfront and barrier island regions, while more interior areas are less threatened. Such information can be used to better prepare for tsunami events as well as provide a preliminary estimate of tsunami hazard in locations where detailed tsunami inundation studies have not been completed.     

A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Study of the Auckland Region, Part II: Inundation Modelling and Hazard Assessment

Regional source tsunamis pose a potentially devastating hazard to communities and infrastructure on the New Zealand coast. But major events are very uncommon. This dichotomy of infrequent but potentially devastating hazards makes realistic assessment of the risk challenging. Here, we describe a method to determine a probabilistic assessment of the tsunami hazard by regional source tsunamis with an “Average Recurrence Interval” of 2,500-years. The method is applied to the east Auckland region of New Zealand. From an assessment of potential regional tsunamigenic events over 100,000 years, the inundation of the Auckland region from the worst 100 events is modelled using a hydrodynamic model and probabilistic inundation depths on a 2,500-year time scale were determined. Tidal effects on the potential inundation were included by coupling the predicted wave heights with the probability density function of tidal heights at the inundation site. Results show that the more exposed northern section of the east coast and outer islands in the Hauraki Gulf face the greatest hazard from regional tsunamis in the Auckland region. Incorporating tidal effects into predictions of inundation reduced the predicted hazard compared to modelling all the tsunamis arriving at high tide giving a more accurate hazard assessment on the specified time scale. This study presents the first probabilistic analysis of dynamic modelling of tsunami inundation for the New Zealand coast and as such provides the most comprehensive assessment of tsunami inundation of the Auckland region from regional source tsunamis available to date.