An assessment of monitoring requirements and costs of 'Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation'

Background  

Negotiations on a future climate policy framework addressing Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) are ongoing. Regardless of how such a framework will be designed, many technical solutions of estimating forest cover and forest carbon stock change exist to support policy in monitoring and accounting. These technologies typically combine remotely sensed data with ground-based inventories. In this article we assess the costs of monitoring REDD based on available technologies and requirements associated with key elements of REDD policy.     

Historic emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in Mato Grosso,Brazil: 1) source data uncertainties

Background  

Historic carbon emissions are an important foundation for proposed efforts to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation and enhance forest carbon stocks through conservation and sustainable forest management (REDD+). The level of uncertainty in historic carbon emissions estimates is also critical for REDD+, since high uncertainties could limit climate benefits from credited mitigation actions. Here, we analyzed source data uncertainties based on the range of available deforestation, forest degradation, and forest carbon stock estimates for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 1990-2008.     

A bottom-up approach to estimating cost elements of REDD+ pilot projects in Tanzania

Background

Several previous global REDD+ cost studies have been conducted, demonstrating that payments for maintaining forest carbon stocks have significant potential to be a cost-effective mechanism for climate change mitigation. These studies have mostly followed highly aggregated top-down approaches without estimating the full range of REDD+ costs elements, thus underestimating the actual costs of REDD+. Based on three REDD+ pilot projects in Tanzania, representing an area of 327,825 ha, this study explicitly adopts a bottom-up approach to data assessment. By estimating opportunity, implementation, transaction and institutional costs of REDD+ we develop a practical and replicable methodological framework to consistently assess REDD+ cost elements.

Results

Based on historical land use change patterns, current region-specific economic conditions and carbon stocks, project-specific opportunity costs ranged between US$ -7.8 and 28.8 tCO_xxxx for deforestation and forest degradation drivers such as agriculture, fuel wood production, unsustainable timber extraction and pasture expansion. The mean opportunity costs for the three projects ranged between US$ 10.1 ?C 12.5 tCO₂. Implementation costs comprised between 89% and 95% of total project costs (excluding opportunity costs) ranging between US$ 4.5 - 12.2 tCO₂ for a period of 30 years. Transaction costs for measurement, reporting, verification (MRV), and other carbon market related compliance costs comprised a minor share, between US$ 0.21 - 1.46 tCO₂. Similarly, the institutional costs comprised around 1% of total REDD+ costs in a range of US$ 0.06 ?C 0.11 tCO₂.

Conclusions

The use of bottom-up approaches to estimate REDD+ economics by considering regional variations in economic conditions and carbon stocks has been shown to be an appropriate approach to provide policy and decision-makers robust economic information on REDD+. The assessment of opportunity costs is a crucial first step to provide information on the economic baseline situation of deforestation and forest degradation agents and on the economic incentives required to halt unsustainable land use. Since performance based REDD+ carbon payments decrease over time (as deforestation rates drop and for each saved ha of forest payments occur once), investments in REDD+ implementation have a crucial role in triggering sustainable land use systems by investing in the underlying assets and the generation of sustainable revenue streams to compensate for opportunity costs of land use change. With a potential increase in the land value due to effective REDD+ investments, expenditures in an enabling institutional environment for REDD+ policies are crucial to avoid higher deforestation pressure on natural forests.     

Forest carbon stocks and fluxes in physiographic zones of India

Background  

Reducing carbon Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) is of central importance to combat climate change. Foremost among the challenges is quantifying nation's carbon emissions from deforestation and degradation, which requires information on forest carbon storage. Here we estimated carbon storage in India's forest biomass for the years 2003, 2005 and 2007 and the net flux caused by deforestation and degradation, between two assessment periods i.e., Assessment Period first (ASP I), 2003-2005 and Assessment Period second (ASP II), 2005-2007.     

Mapping biomass with remote sensing: a comparison of methods for the case study of Uganda

Background  

Assessing biomass is gaining increasing interest mainly for bioenergy, climate change research and mitigation activities, such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries (REDD+). In response to these needs, a number of biomass/carbon maps have been recently produced using different approaches but the lack of comparable reference data limits their proper validation. The objectives of this study are to compare the available maps for Uganda and to understand the sources of variability in the estimation. Uganda was chosen as a case-study because it presents a reliable national biomass reference dataset.     

Reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD): a climate change mitigation strategy on a critical track

Background  

Following recent discussions, there is hope that a mechanism for reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) will be agreed by the Parties of the UNFCCC at their 15th meeting in Copenhagen in 2009 as an eligible action to prevent climate changes and global warming in post-2012 commitment periods. Countries introducing a REDD-regime in order to generate benefits need to implement sound monitoring and reporting systems and specify the associated uncertainties. The principle of conservativeness addresses the problem of estimation errors and requests the reporting of reliable minimum estimates (RME). Here the potential to generate benefits from applying a REDD-regime is proposed with reference to sampling and non-sampling errors that influence the reliability of estimated activity data and emission factors.     

Implications of sampling design and sample size for national carbon accounting systems

Background  

Countries willing to adopt a REDD regime need to establish a national Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system that provides information on forest carbon stocks and carbon stock changes. Due to the extensive areas covered by forests the information is generally obtained by sample based surveys. Most operational sampling approaches utilize a combination of earth-observation data and in-situ field assessments as data sources.     

Projected climate change impact on oceanic acidification

Background  

Anthropogenic CO₂ uptake by the ocean decreases the pH of seawater, leading to an 'acidification' which may have potential detrimental consequences on marine organisms [1]. Ocean warming or circulation alterations induced by climate change has the potential to slowdown the rate of acidification of ocean waters by decreasing the amount of CO₂ uptake by the ocean [2]. However, a recent study showed that climate change affected the decrease in pH insignificantly [3]. Here, we examine the sensitivity of future oceanic acidification to climate change feedbacks within a coupled atmosphere-ocean model and find that ocean warming dominates the climate change feedbacks.     

Options for sampling and stratification for national forest inventories to implement REDD+ under the UNFCCC

Background  

Developing countries that are willing to participate in the recently adopted (16^th Session of the Conference of Parties (COP) in Cancun) mitigation mechanism of Reducing emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation - and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks (REDD+) - will have to establish a national forest monitoring system in order to assess anthropogenic forest-related greenhouse gas emissions by sources and removals by sinks. Such a system should support the Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) requirement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as the REDD+ mechanism is results-based. A national forest inventory (NFI) is one potential key component of such an MRV system. Following the Decision adopted during the 15^th Session of the COP in Copenhagen, the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidance and Guidelines should be used as a basis for estimating anthropogenic forest-related greenhouse gas emissions by sources and removals by sinks and changes in forest carbon stocks and area.     

Biodiversity Conservation in the REDD

Background

Forests occur across diverse biomes, each of which shows a specific composition of plant communities associated with the particular climate regimes. Predicted future climate change will have impacts on the vulnerability and productivity of forests; in some regions higher temperatures will extend the growing season and thus improve forest productivity, while changed annual precipitation patterns may show disadvantageous effects in areas, where water availability is restricted. While adaptation of forests to predicted future climate scenarios has been intensively studied, less attention was paid to mitigation strategies such as the introduction of tree species well adapted to changing environmental conditions.

Results

We simulated the development of managed forest ecosystems in Germany for the time period between 2000 and 2100 under different forest management regimes and climate change scenarios. The management regimes reflect different rotation periods, harvesting intensities and species selection for reforestations. The climate change scenarios were taken from the IPCC's Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). We used the scenarios A1B (rapid and successful economic development) and B1 (high level of environmental and social consciousness combined with a globally coherent approach to a more sustainable development). Our results indicate that the effects of different climate change scenarios on the future productivity and species composition of German forests are minor compared to the effects of forest management.

Conclusions

The inherent natural adaptive capacity of forest ecosystems to changing environmental conditions is limited by the long life time of trees. Planting of adapted species and forest management will reduce the impact of predicted future climate change on forests.     

Synergizing community-based forest monitoring with remote sensing: a path to an effective REDD+ MRV system

Background

The reliable monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) of carbon emissions and removals from the forest sector is an important part of the efforts on reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). Forest-dependent local communities are engaged to contribute to MRV through community-based monitoring systems. The efficiency of such monitoring systems could be improved through the rational integration of the studies at permanent plots with the geospatial technologies. This article presents a case study of integrating community-based measurements at permanent plots at the foothills of central Nepal and biomass maps that were developed using GeoEye-1 and IKONS satellite images.

Results

The use of very-high-resolution satellite-based tree cover parameters, including crown projected area (CPA), crown density and crown size classes improves salience, reliability and legitimacy of the community-based survey of 0.04% intensity at the lower cost than increasing intensity of the community-based survey to 0.14% level (2.5 USD/ha vs. 7.5 USD/ha).

Conclusion

The proposed REDD+ MRV complementary system is the first of its kind and demonstrates the enhancement of information content, accuracy of reporting and reduction in cost. It also allows assessment of the efficacy of community-based forest management and extension to national scale.

     

Altitudinal variation in soil organic carbon stock in coniferous subtropical and broadleaf temperate forests in Garhwal Himalaya

Background  

The Himalayan zones, with dense forest vegetation, cover a fifth part of India and store a third part of the country reserves of soil organic carbon (SOC). However, the details of altitudinal distribution of these carbon stocks, which are vulnerable to forest management and climate change impacts, are not well known.     

Science-based approach for credible accounting of mitigation in managed forests

Background

The credibility and effectiveness of country climate targets under the Paris Agreement requires that, in all greenhouse gas (GHG) sectors, the accounted mitigation outcomes reflect genuine deviations from the type and magnitude of activities generating emissions in the base year or baseline. This is challenging for the forestry sector, as the future net emissions can change irrespective of actual management activities, because of age-related stand dynamics resulting from past management and natural disturbances. The solution implemented under the Kyoto Protocol (2013–2020) was accounting mitigation as deviation from a projected (forward-looking) “forest reference level”, which considered the age-related dynamics but also allowed including the assumed future implementation of approved policies. This caused controversies, as unverifiable counterfactual scenarios with inflated future harvest could lead to credits where no change in management has actually occurred, or conversely, failing to reflect in the accounts a policy-driven increase in net emissions. Instead, here we describe an approach to set reference levels based on the projected continuation of documented historical forest management practice, i.e. reflecting age-related dynamics but not the future impact of policies. We illustrate a possible method to implement this approach at the level of the European Union (EU) using the Carbon Budget Model.

Results

Using EU country data, we show that forest sinks between 2013 and 2016 were greater than that assumed in the 2013–2020 EU reference level under the Kyoto Protocol, which would lead to credits of 110–120 Mt CO₂/year (capped at 70–80 Mt CO₂/year, equivalent to 1.3% of 1990 EU total emissions). By modelling the continuation of management practice documented historically (2000–2009), we show that these credits are mostly due to the inclusion in the reference levels of policy-assumed harvest increases that never materialized. With our proposed approach, harvest is expected to increase (12% in 2030 at EU-level, relative to 2000–2009), but more slowly than in current forest reference levels, and only because of age-related dynamics, i.e. increased growing stocks in maturing forests.

Conclusions

Our science-based approach, compatible with the EU post-2020 climate legislation, helps to ensure that only genuine deviations from the continuation of historically documented forest management practices are accounted toward climate targets, therefore enhancing the consistency and comparability across GHG sectors. It provides flexibility for countries to increase harvest in future reference levels when justified by age-related dynamics. It offers a policy-neutral solution to the polarized debate on forest accounting (especially on bioenergy) and supports the credibility of forest sector mitigation under the Paris Agreement.

     

Options for accounting carbon sequestration in German forests

Background  

The Accra climate change talks held from 21–27 August 2008 in Accra, Ghana, were part of an ongoing series of meetings leading up to the Copenhagen meeting in December 2009. During the meeting a set of options for accounting carbon sequestration in forestry on a post-2012 framework was presented. The options include gross-net and net-net accounting and approaches for establishing baselines.     

Terrestrial vegetation redistribution and carbon balance under climate change

Background  

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) compute the terrestrial carbon balance as well as the transient spatial distribution of vegetation. We study two scenarios of moderate and strong climate change (2.9 K and 5.3 K temperature increase over present) to investigate the spatial redistribution of major vegetation types and their carbon balance in the year 2100.     

Pacific climate variability and the possible impact on global surface CO2 flux

Background  

Climate variability modifies both oceanic and terrestrial surface CO2 flux. Using observed/assimilated data sets, earlier studies have shown that tropical oceanic climate variability has strong impacts on the land surface temperature and soil moisture, and that there is a negative correlation between the oceanic and terrestrial CO2 fluxes. However, these data sets only cover less than the most recent 20 years and are insufficient for identifying decadal and longer periodic variabilities. To investigate possible impacts of interannual to interdecadal climate variability on CO2 flux exchange, the last 125 years of an earth system model (ESM) control run are examined.     

Future productivity and phenology changes in European grasslands for different warming levels: implications for grassland management and carbon balance

Background

Europe has warmed more than the global average (land and ocean) since pre-industrial times, and is also projected to continue to warm faster than the global average in the twenty-first century. According to the climate models ensemble projections for various climate scenarios, annual mean temperature of Europe for 2071–2100 is predicted to be 1–5.5 °C higher than that for 1971–2000. Climate change and elevated CO₂ concentration are anticipated to affect grassland management and livestock production in Europe. However, there has been little work done to quantify the European-wide response of grassland to future climate change. Here we applied ORCHIDEE-GM v2.2, a grid-based model for managed grassland, over European grassland to estimate the impacts of future global change.

Results

Increases in grassland productivity are simulated in response to future global change, which are mainly attributed to the simulated fertilization effect of rising CO₂. The results show significant phenology shifts, in particular an earlier winter-spring onset of grass growth over Europe. A longer growing season is projected over southern and southeastern Europe. In other regions, summer drought causes an earlier end to the growing season, overall reducing growing season length. Future global change allows an increase of management intensity with higher than current potential annual grass forage yield, grazing capacity and livestock density, and a shift in seasonal grazing capacity. We found a continual grassland soil carbon sink in Mediterranean, Alpine, North eastern, South eastern and Eastern regions under specific warming level (SWL) of 1.5 and 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate. However, this carbon sink is found to saturate, and gradually turn to a carbon source at warming level reaching 3.5 °C.

Conclusions

This study provides a European-wide assessment of the future changes in productivity and phenology of grassland, and their consequences for the management intensity and the carbon balance. The simulated productivity increase in response to future global change enables an intensification of grassland management over Europe. However, the simulated increase in the interannual variability of grassland productivity over some regions may reduce the farmers’ ability to take advantage of the increased long-term mean productivity in the face of more frequent, and more severe drops of productivity in the future.

     

Carbon budgets of potential tropical perennial grass cropping scenarios for bioenergy feedstock production

Background

The environmental costs of fossil fuel consumption are globally recognized, opening many pathways for the development of regional portfolio solutions for sustainable replacement fuel and energy options. The purpose of this study was to create a baseline carbon (C) budget of a conventionally managed sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) production system on Maui, Hawaii, and compare it to three different future energy cropping scenarios: (1) conventional sugarcane with a 50% deficit irrigation (sugarcane 50%), (2) ratoon harvested napiergrass (Pennisetum purpureum Schumach.) with 100% irrigation (napier 100%), and (3) ratoon harvested napiergrass with a 50% deficit irrigation (napier 50%).

Results

The differences among cropping scenarios for the fossil fuel-based emissions associated with agricultural inputs and field operations were small compared to the differences associated with pre-harvest burn emissions and soil C stock under ratoon harvest and zero-tillage management. Burn emissions were nearly 2000 kg C_eq ha^?1 year^?1 in the conventional sugarcane; whereas soil C gains were approximately 4500 kg C_eq ha^?1 year^?1 in the surface layer of the soil profile for napiergrass. Further, gains in deep soil profile C were nearly three times greater than in the surface layer. Therefore, net global warming potential was greatest for conventional sugarcane and least for napier 50% when deep profile soil C was included. Per unit of biomass yield, the most greenhouse gas (GHG) intensive scenario was sugarcane 50% with a GHG Index (GHGI, positive values imply a climate impact, so a more negative value is preferable for climate change mitigation) of 0.11 and the least intensive was napiergrass 50% when a deep soil profile was included (GHGI?=???0.77).

Conclusion

Future scenarios for energy or fuel production on former sugarcane land across the Pacific Basin or other volcanic islands should concentrate on ratoon-harvested crops that maintain yields under zero-tillage management for long intervals between kill harvest and reduce costs of field operations and agricultural input requirements. For napiergrass on Maui and elsewhere, deficit irrigation maximized climate change mitigation of the system and reduced water use should be part of planning a sustainable, diversified agricultural landscape.

     

Climatic regions as an indicator of forest coarse and fine woody debris carbon stocks in the United States

Background  

Coarse and fine woody debris are substantial forest ecosystem carbon stocks; however, there is a lack of understanding how these detrital carbon stocks vary across forested landscapes. Because forest woody detritus production and decay rates may partially depend on climatic conditions, the accumulation of coarse and fine woody debris carbon stocks in forests may be correlated with climate. This study used a nationwide inventory of coarse and fine woody debris in the United States to examine how these carbon stocks vary by climatic regions and variables.     

Time-series maps of aboveground biomass in dipterocarps forests of Malaysia from PALSAR and PALSAR-2 polarimetric data

Background

Malaysia typically suffers from frequent cloud cover, hindering spatially consistent reporting of deforestation and forest degradation, which limits the accurate reporting of carbon loss and CO₂ emissions for reducing emission from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) intervention. This study proposed an approach for accurate and consistent measurements of biomass carbon and CO₂ emissions using a single L-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensor system. A time-series analysis of aboveground biomass (AGB) using the PALSAR and PALSAR-2 systems addressed a number of critical questions that have not been previously answered. A series of PALSAR and PALSAR-2 mosaics over the years 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2015 and 2016 were used to (i) map the forest cover, (ii) quantify the rate of forest loss, (iii) establish prediction equations for AGB, (iv) quantify the changes of carbon stocks and (v) estimate CO₂ emissions (and removal) in the dipterocarps forests of Peninsular Malaysia.

Results

This study found that the annual rate of deforestation within inland forests in Peninsular Malaysia was 0.38% year^?1 and subsequently caused a carbon loss of approximately 9 million Mg C year^?1, which is equal to emissions of 33 million Mg CO₂ year^?1, within the ten-year observation period. Spatially explicit maps of AGB over the dipterocarps forests in the entire Peninsular Malaysia were produced. The RMSE associated with the AGB estimation was approximately 117 Mg ha^?1, which is equal to an error of 29.3% and thus an accuracy of approximately 70.7%.

Conclusion

The PALSAR and PALSAR-2 systems offer a great opportunity for providing consistent data acquisition, cloud-free images and wall-to-wall coverage for monitoring since at least the past decade. We recommend the proposed method and findings of this study be considered for MRV in REDD+?implementation in Malaysia.