The “FIP Effect” and the Origins of Solar Energetic Particles and of the Solar Wind

We find that the element abundances in solar energetic particles (SEPs) and in the slow solar wind (SSW), relative to those in the photosphere, show different patterns as a function of the first ionization potential (FIP) of the elements. Generally, the SEP and SSW abundances reflect abundance samples of the solar corona, where low-FIP elements, ionized in the chromosphere, are more efficiently conveyed upward to the corona than high-FIP elements that are initially neutral atoms. Abundances of the elements, especially C, P, and S, show a crossover from low to high FIP at \({\approx}\,10~\mbox{eV}\) in the SEPs but \({\approx}\,14~\mbox{eV}\) for the solar wind. Naively, this seems to suggest cooler plasma from sunspots beneath active regions. More likely, if the ponderomotive force of Alfvén waves preferentially conveys low-FIP ions into the corona, the source plasma that eventually will be shock-accelerated as SEPs originates in magnetic structures where Alfvén waves resonate with the loop length on closed magnetic field lines. This concentrates FIP fractionation near the top of the chromosphere. Meanwhile, the source of the SSW may lie near the base of diverging open-field lines surrounding, but outside of, active regions, where such resonance does not exist, allowing fractionation throughout the chromosphere. We also find that energetic particles accelerated from the solar wind itself by shock waves at corotating interaction regions, generally beyond 1 AU, confirm the FIP pattern of the solar wind.     

The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24

We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.     

Combined Analysis of Solar Neutrino and Solar Irradiance Data: Further Evidence for Variability of the Solar Neutrino Flux and Its Implications Concerning the Solar Core

A search for any particular feature in any single solar neutrino dataset is unlikely to establish variability of the solar neutrino flux since the count rates are very low. It helps to combine datasets, and in this article we examine data from both the Homestake and GALLEX experiments. These show evidence of modulation with a frequency of 11.85 year⁻¹, which could be indicative of rotational modulation originating in the solar core. We find that precisely the same frequency is prominent in power spectrum analyses of the ACRIM irradiance data for both the Homestake and GALLEX time intervals. These results suggest that the solar core is inhomogeneous and rotates with a sidereal frequency of 12.85 year⁻¹. From Monte Carlo calculations, it is found that the probability that the neutrino data would by chance match the irradiance data in this way is only 2 parts in 10 000. This rotation rate is significantly lower than that of the inner radiative zone (13.97 year⁻¹) as recently inferred from analysis of Super-Kamiokande data, suggesting that there may be a second, inner tachocline separating the core from the radiative zone. This opens up the possibility that there may be an inner dynamo that could produce a strong internal magnetic field and a second solar cycle.     

A Possible Cause of the Diminished Solar Wind During the Solar Cycle 23 – 24 Minimum

Interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind plasma density observed at 1 AU during Solar Cycle 23?–?24 (SC-23/24) minimum were significantly smaller than those during its previous solar cycle (SC-22/23) minimum. Because the Earth’s orbit is embedded in the slow wind during solar minimum, changes in the geometry and/or content of the slow wind region (SWR) can have a direct influence on the solar wind parameters near the Earth. In this study, we analyze solar wind plasma and magnetic field data of hourly values acquired by Ulysses. It is found that the solar wind, when averaging over the first (1995.6?–?1995.8) and third (2006.9?–?2008.2) Ulysses’ perihelion (\({\sim}\,1.4~\mbox{AU}\)) crossings, was about the same speed, but significantly less dense (\({\sim}\,34~\%\)) and cooler (\({\sim}\,20~\%\)), and the total magnetic field was \({\sim}\,30~\%\) weaker during the third compared to the first crossing. It is also found that the SWR was \({\sim}\,50~\%\) wider in the third (\({\sim}\,68.5^{\circ}\) in heliographic latitude) than in the first (\({\sim}\,44.8^{\circ}\)) solar orbit. The observed latitudinal increase in the SWR is sufficient to explain the excessive decline in the near-Earth solar wind density during the recent solar minimum without speculating that the total solar output may have been decreasing. The observed SWR inflation is also consistent with a cooler solar wind in the SC-23/24 than in the SC-22/23 minimum. Furthermore, the ratio of the high-to-low latitude photospheric magnetic field (or equatorward magnetic pressure force), as observed by the Mountain Wilson Observatory, is smaller during the third than the first Ulysses’ perihelion orbit. These findings suggest that the smaller equatorward magnetic pressure at the Sun may have led to the latitudinally-wider SRW observed by Ulysses in SC-23/24 minimum.     

Do Solar Coronal Holes Affect the Properties of Solar Energetic Particle Events?

The intensities and timescales of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events at 1 AU may depend not only on the characteristics of shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), but also on large-scale coronal and interplanetary structures. It has long been suspected that the presence of coronal holes (CHs) near the CMEs or near the 1-AU magnetic footpoints may be an important factor in SEP events. We used a group of 41 E≈ 20 MeV SEP events with origins near the solar central meridian to search for such effects. First we investigated whether the presence of a CH directly between the sources of the CME and of the magnetic connection at 1 AU is an important factor. Then we searched for variations of the SEP events among different solar wind (SW) stream types: slow, fast, and transient. Finally, we considered the separations between CME sources and CH footpoint connections from 1 AU determined from four-day forecast maps based on Mount Wilson Observatory and the National Solar Observatory synoptic magnetic-field maps and the Wang–Sheeley–Arge model of SW propagation. The observed in-situ magnetic-field polarities and SW speeds at SEP event onsets tested the forecast accuracies employed to select the best SEP/CH connection events for that analysis. Within our limited sample and the three analytical treatments, we found no statistical evidence for an effect of CHs on SEP event peak intensities, onset times, or rise times. The only exception is a possible enhancement of SEP peak intensities in magnetic clouds.     

A Change in the Solar He ii EUV Global Network Structure as an Indicator of the Geo-Effectiveness of Solar Minima

Solar activity during 2007?–?2009 was very low, causing anomalously low thermospheric density. A comparison of solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance in the He?ii spectral band (26 to 34 nm) from the Solar Extreme ultraviolet Monitor (SEM), one of instruments on the Charge Element and Isotope Analysis System (CELIAS) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) for the two latest solar minima showed a decrease of the absolute irradiance of about 15±6 % during the solar minimum between Cycles 23 and 24 compared with the Cycle 22/23 minimum when a yearly running-mean filter was used. We found that some local, shorter-term minima including those with the same absolute EUV flux in the SEM spectral band show a higher concentration of spatial power in the global network structure from the 30.4 nm SOHO/Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) images for the local minimum of 1996 compared with the minima of 2008?–?2011. We interpret this higher concentration of spatial power in the transition region’s global network structure as a larger number of larger-area features on the solar disk. These changes in the global network structure during solar minima may characterize, in part, the geo-effectiveness of the solar He?ii EUV irradiance in addition to the estimations based on its absolute levels.     

Estimating the Size and Timing of the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24

A simple statistical method is used to estimate the size and timing of maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle (cycle 24). Presuming cycle 23 to be a short cycle (as is more likely), the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about December 2006 (±2 months) and the maximum, around March 2011 (±9 months), and the amplitude is 189.9 ±15.5, if it is a fast riser, or about 136, if it is a slow riser. If we presume cycle 23 to be a long cycle (as is less likely), the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about June 2008 (±2 months) and the maximum, about February 2013 (±8 months) and the maximum will be about 137 or 80, according as the cycle is a fast riser or a slow riser.     

The Relation between the Amplitude and the Period of Solar Cycles

The maximum amplitudes of solar activity cycles are found to be well anti-correlated (r = -0.72) with the newly defined solar cycle lengths three cycles before (at lag -3) in 13-month running mean sunspot numbers during the past 190 years. This result could be used for predicting the maximum sunspot numbers. The amplitudes of Cycles 24 and 25 are estimated to be 149.5±27.6 and 144.3±27.6, respectively.     

Algorithm Design and Test of the Solar Guide Telescope

The Solar Guide Telescope (SGT), an important solar attitude sensor of the SST (Space Solar Telescope, a space solar observing instrument being developed in China), can accurately produce pointing error signals of the SST for attitude control at high speed. We analyze in detail the error algorithm of the heliocentric coordinates and the edge judging of solar images. The measuring accuracy of ±0.5 arcsec of the SGT is verified by experiments on the tracking of the Sun and by testing a sun simulator. Some factors causing the pointing errors are examined.     

On the Evolution of the Lower Energy Cutoff of Nonthermal Electrons in Solar Flares

1 INTRODUCTION Gan, Li and Chang (2001a) proposed a quantitative method to obtain the lower energycutoff (Er) of power-law electrons from the observed broken-down double power-law hard Xray spectrum. Most recently Can et al. (2002) improved the method and let it be moreself-consistent. They applied their improved method to the 54 hard X-ray events observed withBATSE/CGRO and acquired more general results in comparison with those obtained by Canet al. (2001b). Despite the data is rel…     

Trojans’ Odyssey: Unveiling the early history of the Solar System

In our present understanding of the Solar System, small bodies (asteroids, Jupiter Trojans, comets and TNOs) are the most direct remnants of the original building blocks that formed the planets. Jupiter Trojan and Hilda asteroids are small primitive bodies located beyond the ‘snow line’, around respectively the L₄ and L₅ Lagrange points of Jupiter at ～5.2?AU (Trojans) and in the 2:3 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter near 3.9?AU (Hildas). They are at the crux of several outstanding and still conflicting issues regarding the formation and evolution of the Solar System. They hold the potential to unlock the answers to fundamental questions about planetary migration, the late heavy bombardment, the formation of the Jovian system, the origin and evolution of trans-neptunian objects, and the delivery of water and organics to the inner planets. The proposed Trojans’ Odyssey mission is envisioned as a reconnaissance, multiple flyby mission aimed at visiting several objects, typically five Trojans and one Hilda. It will attempt exploring both large and small objects and sampling those with any known differences in photometric properties. The orbital strategy consists in a direct trajectory to one of the Trojan swarms. By carefully choosing the aphelion of the orbit (typically 5.3?AU), the trajectory will offer a long arc in the swarm thus maximizing the number of flybys. Initial gravity assists from Venus and Earth will help reducing the cruise time as well as the ΔV needed for injection thus offering enough capacity to navigate among Trojans. This solution further opens the unique possibility to flyby a Hilda asteroid when leaving the Trojan swarm. During the cruise phase, a Main Belt Asteroid could be targeted if requiring a modest ΔV. The specific science objectives of the mission will be best achieved with a payload that will perform high-resolution panchromatic and multispectral imaging, thermal-infrared imaging/ radiometry, near- and mid-infrared spectroscopy, and radio science/mass determination. The total mass of the payload amounts to 50?kg (including margins). The spacecraft is in the class of Mars-Express or a down-scaled version of Jupiter Ganymede Orbiter. It will have a dry mass of 1200?kg, a total mass at launch of 3070?kg and a ΔV capability of 700?m/s (after having reached the first Trojan) and can be launched by a Soyuz rocket. The mission operations concept (ground segment) and science operations are typical of a planetary mission as successfully implemented by ESA during, for instance, the recent flybys of Main Belt asteroids Steins and Lutetia.     

Does the Poleward Migration Rate of the Magnetic Fields Depend on the Strength of the Solar Cycle?

We present the pattern of the polar magnetic reversal for cycle 23 derived from H synoptic charts and have also included the reversals of the earlier cycles 18–22 for comparison. At the beginning of a new cycle (i.e., soon after the polar reversal) the zonal boundaries of unipolar magnetic regions of opposite polarities (seen as filament bands on the synoptic charts) appear close to and on either side of the equator continuing through the years of minimum indicating the onset of the cancellation of flux at these low latitudes. The cycle thus starts with cancellation of flux close to the equator and ends with the polar reversal or flux cancellation near the poles. The filament bands just below the polemost ones migrate and reach latitudes 35°–45° by the time of polar reversal and become the polemost, once the polar reversal has taken place. During the years of minimum that follow, these filament bands remain more or less stagnant at the latitudes 35°–45° except for occasional slow migration towards the equator. The migration to the poles starts at a low speed of 3 m s^–1 only when the spot activity has risen to a significant level and then it accelerates to 30 m s^–1 at the peak of the activity. It takes 3–4 years for the polemost bands to reach the poles moving at these high speeds. We quantify this possible cause and effect phenomenon by introducing the concept of the `strength of the solar cycle' and represent this by either of a set of three parameters. We show that the velocity of poleward migration is a linear function of the `strength of the solar cycle'.     

Response of the Solar Atmosphere to the Emergence of ‘Serpentine’ Magnetic Field

Active region magnetic flux that emerges to the photosphere from below will show complexity in the structure, with many small-scale fragmented features appearing in between the main bipole and then disappearing. Some fragments seen will be absorbed into the main polarities and others seem to cancel with opposite magnetic field. In this paper we investigate the response of the corona to the behaviour of these small fragments and whether energy through reconnection will be transported into the corona. In order to investigate this we analyse data from the Hinode space mission during flux emergence on 1?–?2 December 2006. At the initial stages of flux emergence several small-scale enhancements (of only a few pixels size) are seen in the coronal line widths and diffuse coronal emission exists. The magnetic flux emerges as a fragmented structure, and coronal loops appear above these structures or close to them. These loops are large-scale structures – most small-scale features predominantly stay within the chromosphere or at the edges of the flux emergence. The most distinctive feature in the Doppler velocity is a strong ring of coronal outflows around the edge of the emerging flux region on the eastern side which is either due to reconnection or compression of the structure. This feature lasts for many hours and is seen in many wavelengths. We discuss the implications of this feature in terms of the onset of persistent outflows from an active region that could contribute to the slow solar wind.     

Evolution of the Electron Distribution Function in the Whistler Wave Turbulence of the Solar Wind

The electron distribution functions from the solar corona to the solar wind are determined in this paper by considering the effects of the external forces, of Coulomb collisions and of the wave – particle resonant interactions in the plasma wave turbulence. The electrons are assumed to be interacting with right-handed polarized waves in the whistler regime. The acceleration of electrons in the solar wind seems to be mainly due to the electrostatic potential. Wave turbulence determines the electron pitch-angle diffusion and some characteristics of the velocity distribution function (VDF) such as suprathermal tails. The role of parallel whistlers can also be extended to small altitudes in the solar wind (the acceleration region of the outer corona), where they may explain the energization and the presence of suprathermal electrons.     

Wavelet Analysis of the Schwabe Cycle Properties in Solar Activity

Properties of the Schwabe cycles in solar activity are investigated by using wavelet transform. We study the main range of the Schwabe cycles of the solar activity recorded by relative sunspot numbers, and find that the main range of the Schwabe cycles is the periodic span from 8-year to 14-year. We make the comparison of 11-year‘s phase between relative sunspot numbers and sunspot group numbers. The results show that there is some difference between two phases for the interval from 1710 to 1810, while the two phases are almost the same for the interval from 1810 to 1990.     

Refractory Metal Nuggets – Formation of the first condensates in the Solar Nebula

As gas flowed from the solar accretion disk or Solar Nebula onto the proto-Sun, magnetic pressure gradients in the solar magnetosphere and the inner Solar Nebula provided an environment where some of this infalling flow was diverted to produce a low pressure, high temperature, gaseous, “infall” atmosphere around the inner Solar Nebula. The pressure in this inner disk atmosphere was mainly dependant on the accretion flow rate onto the star. High flow rates implied relatively high pressures, which decreased over time as the accretion rate decreased.In the first hundred thousand years after the formation of the Solar Nebula, accretional flow gas pressures were high enough to create submicron-sized Refractory Metal Nuggets (RMNs) – the precursors to Calcium Aluminum Inclusions (CAIs). Optimal temperatures and pressures for RMN formation may have occurred between 20,000 and 100,000 years after the formation of the Solar Nebula. It is possible that conditions were conducive to RMN/CAI formation over an 80,000 year timescale. The “infall” atmosphere and the condensation of refractory particles within this atmosphere may be observable around the inner disks of other protostellar systems.The interaction of forces from magnetic fields with the radiation pressure from the proto-Sun and the inner solar accretion disk potentially produced an optical-magnetic trap above and below the inner Solar Nebula, which provided a relatively stable environment in which the RMNs/proto-CAIs could form and grow. These RMN formation sites only existed during accretion events from the proto-solar disk onto the proto-Sun. As such, the formation and growth time of a particular RMN was dependent on the timescale of its nascent accretion event.Observational evidence suggests that RMNs were the nucleation particles for CAIs. As a consequence, the observed bimodal distribution of ²⁶Al in CAIs, where some CAIs have ²⁶Al while others do not, is probably due to the injection ²⁶Al during the short CAI formation period, where ²⁶Al was not present when the first CAIs were formed.     

Verification of Short-Term Predictions of Solar Soft X-ray Bursts for the Maximum Phase （2000-2001） of Solar Cycle 23

We present a verification of the short-term predictions of solar Xray bursts for the maximum phase (2000-2001) of Solar Cycle 23, issued by two prediction centers. The results are that the rate of correct predictions is about equal for RWC-China and WWA; the rate of too high predictions is greater for RWC-China than for WWA, while the rate of too low predictions is smaller for RWC-China than for WWA.     

Electron-Temperature Maps of the Low Solar Corona: ISCORE Results from the Total Solar Eclipse of 29 March 2006 in Libya

We conducted an experiment in conjunction with the total solar eclipse of 29 March 2006 in Libya that measured the coronal intensity through two filters centered at 3850 Å and 4100 Å with bandwidths of ≈?40 Å. The purpose of these measurements was to obtain the intensity ratio through these two filters to determine the electron temperature. The instrument, Imaging Spectrograph of Coronal Electrons (ISCORE), consisted of an eight inch, f/10 Schmidt Cassegrain telescope with a thermoelectrically-cooled CCD camera at the focal plane. Results show electron temperatures of 10⁵ K close to the limb to 3×10⁶ K at 1.3R _⊙. We describe this novel technique, and we compare our results to other relevant measurements. This technique could be easily implemented on a space-based platform using a coronagraph to produce global maps of the electron temperature of the solar corona.     

The Effect of Solar Activity on the Annual Precipitation in the Beijing Area

Using continuous wavelet transform, we examine the relationship between solar activity and the annual precipitation in the Beijing area. The results indicate that the annual precipitation is closely related to the variation of sunspot numbers, and that solar activity probably plays an important role in influencing the precipitation on land.