Design of environmental decision support system and its application to water quality management

1 IntroductionEnvironmental decision support systems could be divided into two categories by their organizational form and system functions. One is regional environmental analytical system based on commercial GIS and assisted by environmental models, such as BASINS developed by the American NEPA using ARC/VIEW as its user platform and including QUAL2E and NPSM as its prediction tools. The other is environmental information and prediction system based on mathematical models, such as…     

环境决策支持系统的设计及其在水质管理中的应用

ＥＤＳＳ（Ｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｌ Ｄｅｃｉｓｉｏｎ Ｓｕｐｐｏｒｔ Ｓｙｓｔｅｍ）是一处适用于潮汐河网地区水环境管理和决策的软件系统,其主要功能是协助政府部门进行有效和科学的水环境管理。该系统采用地理信息系统、数据管理系统、模型库管理系统和专家系统等先进技术,将环境数据库、水动力与水质模型库、经济优化技术、环境专家以及环境法规有机地集成在一起。文中首先介绍了ＥＤＳＳ的组织方法、设计特征、实现技     

An environmental decision‐support system for the management of water pollution in a tidal river network

This paper is about the development of a decision‐support system for water‐pollution management and environmental planning. More specifically, the paper first presents the overall concept and the system architecture of a generic environmental decision‐support system (EDSS) and then develops an EDSS especially for analysing the tidal flow pattern and water quality of China's Pearl River Delta. The EDSS developed here employs the object‐oriented approach to design the environmental database and utilizes the system integration technology to develop the overall user‐friendly system that operates in the Windows environment. Furthermore, the system can be expanded to facilitate automated model selection and analysis. The EDSS should be of value for managing water quality of river networks with complicated flow patterns, such as that found in the Pearl River Delta.     

珠江河口“门”的地貌动力学初探

珠江河口由河网区与河口湾区构成,连接两部分的是珠江口独特的地貌单元“门”。末次海进盛期古珠江海湾可分为内海湾和外海湾,现代三角洲平原与河网均发育在古内海湾。内、外古海湾通过峡口相连,这些峡口演变为现代的“门”。本文根据实测水文资料、地形图、钻孔资料,应用PRD-LTMM长周期动力-沉积-形态模型对珠江河口的“门”6000年来地貌动力学进行探讨：(1) 现代“门”双向射流动力系统,(2) “门”的演进阶段,(3)“门”对古潮汐能量的集聚作用,(4) 珠江河口各“门”与相应的三角洲平原的同步耦合演进, (5)“门”对珠江河网形成的作用。     

基于随机森林模型的珠江三角洲30 m格网人口空间化

人口空间化是实现人口统计数据与其他环境资源空间数据融合分析的有效途径。本文选取夜间灯光数据、道路网数据、水域分布数据、建成区数据、数字高程模型和地形坡度数据作为影响珠江三角洲人口分布的变量因子,利用随机森林模型对珠江三角洲2010年人口数据进行了30 m格网空间化,并将模拟结果与三个公开数据集作精度对比,最后基于随机森林模型的变量因子重要性分析珠江三角洲人口空间分布的影响因素。结果表明：本文模拟整体精度达到82.32%,均优于WorldPop数据集以及中国公里网格人口数据集,接近GPW数据集,而且在人口密度中等区域模拟精度最高;通过对变量因子重要性进行度量,发现夜间灯光强度是珠江三角洲人口分布的最重要指示性指标,到水域的距离、到建成区的距离和路网密度对珠江三角洲人口分布均具有重要作用。利用随机森林模型结合多源信息能够实现高空间分辨率的人口空间化,可为精细化城市管理提供重要数据源,也可为相关政策决策制定提供支持。     

珠江三角洲区域一体化研究综合信息系统的设计与应用

在分析地理信息系统技术发展与应用现状的基础上,设计了珠江三角洲区域一体化研究综合信息系统的结构框架。根据珠江三角洲的实际情况,并在经济地理学,城市地理学,区域科学等理论的指导下,开发了针对该区域一体化研究的模型分析系统。基于元数据库的数据集成与模型管理技术,能对不同数据源,不同数据类型与时空特性的多元数据处理与分析。本综合信息系统在区域产业布局,资源窨组合,城市体系空间结构演化等方面得到应用,将为     

珠江三角洲地区城镇管理信息系统框架

针对珠江三角洲大部分地区目前城镇管理所采用的常规手工操作方式,其手段落后、信息加工处理速度慢且精度低、缺乏更深层次的空间分析、各城镇的相对独立和非标准性的管理模式、信息资源无法共享、难以及时更新大量的空间和非空间数据等问题进行了深入的调查研究。提出了用生态城市管理模式的全新概念和用现代地理计算机科学手段研究珠江三角洲地区小城镇管理信息这将对２１世纪现代化的城镇管理具有现实意义。     

Multi-object approach and its application to adaptive water management under climate change

This paper addresses issues on adaptive water management under the impact of climate change. Based on a set of comprehensive indicators of water system, a decision making approach of multi-objects is developed and applied to quantify water adaptive management for the demands of water sustainable use, water environmental protection and eco-water requirement under the climate change. For this study in China, two key indicators are proposed, namely (1) the water resources vulnerability (V) that was represented by integrated sensitivity (S) and resilience (C) of climate change impact on water resources, and (2) the sustainability of socio-economy and water environment, marked by DD, that is integrated scaler of socio-economic development (EG) based on the amount of GDP and the water environment and relative eco-system quality (LI). To find a reasonable solution for adaptive water management, a multi-objective decision making model of adaptive water management is further developed and the multi-objective model was transformed into an integrated single optimization model through developing an integrated measure function, called as VDD=DD/V. This approach has been applied to adaptive water resources planning and management for case study of China with new policy, called as the strict management of water resources based on three red line controls, i.e., the control of total water use by the total water resources allocation, the control of lower water use efficiency by the water demand management and the control of the total waste water load by water quality management in the Eastern China Monsoon Region that covers major eight big river basins including Yangtze River, Yellow River, Haihe River and Huaihe River. It is shown that the synthetic representation of water resource vulnerability and socio-economic sustainability by the integrated objective function (VDD) and integrated decision making model are workable and practicable. Adaptive management effect of the criterion compliance rate and water use efficiency are more appreciable through new water policy of the three red line controls, which can reduce 21.3% of the water resources vulnerability (V) and increase 18.4% of the sustainability of socioeconomy and water environment (DD) for the unfavorable scenario of climate change in 2030.     

气候变化下水资源适应性管理的多目标方法应用（英文）

This paper addresses issues on adaptive water management under the impact of climate change.Based on a set of comprehensive indicators of water system,a decision making approach of multi-objects is developed and applied to quantify water adaptive management for the demands of water sustainable use,water environmental protection and eco-water requirement under the climate change.For this study in China,two key indicators are proposed,namely(1) the water resources vulnerability(V) that was represented by integrated sensitivity(S) and resilience(C) of climate change impact on water resources,and(2) the sustainability of socio-economy and water environment,marked by DD,that is integrated scaler of socio-economic development(EG) based on the amount of GDP and the water environment and relative eco-system quality(LI).To find a reasonable solution for adaptive water management,a multi-objective decision making model of adaptive water management is further developed and the multi-objective model was transformed into an integrated single optimization model through developing an integrated measure function,called as VDD=DD/V.This approach has been applied to adaptive water resources planning and management for case study of China with new policy,called as the strict management of water resources based on three red line controls,i.e.,the control of total water use by the total water resources allocation,the control of lower water use efficiency by the water demand management and the control of the total waste water load by water quality management in the Eastern China Monsoon Region that covers major eight big river basins including Yangtze River,Yellow River,Haihe River and Huaihe River.It is shown that the synthetic representation of water resource vulnerability and socio-economic sustainability by the integrated objective function(VDD) and integrated decision making model are workable and practicable.Adaptive management effect of the criterion compliance rate and water use efficiency are more appreciable through new water policy of the three red line controls,which can reduce 21.3% of the water resources vulnerability(V) and increase 18.4% of the sustainability of socioeconomy and water environment(DD) for the unfavorable scenario of climate change in 2030.     

广州城区晚全新世环境变迁与人类活动

对广州市越秀区解放中路考古遗址剖面进行了年代学、岩性、硅藻和软体动物鉴定等研究,发现广州珠江北岸古城区南部在先秦时期为河道及河口湾湿地/洼地;因河流-河涌的淡水注入使河口盐度降低,故而沉积物中未见较高盐度的微体生物,仅发现了河口型咸水-半咸水硅藻;此时堆积的贝壳大多为淡水种,半咸水种少见,表明先秦(东周)时期,广州地区...     

珠江三角洲洪水变化及洪水风险与保险

珠江三角洲经济发达,河网密布,洪水问题一直比较突出。原因不仅在于这一区域内水系交错、堤围众多、洪水时空分布不均,还在于伴随该区域经济发展及受人类活动影响的洪水变化。人们对利益与洪水风险的取向直接决定了本区域洪水灾害损失的程度和抗御洪灾的能力。在各种防洪减灾的工程和非工程措施中,洪水保险是值得重视并应尽快开展的工作。     

珠江三角洲干流汊道泥沙分配及变化--以西、北江三角洲为例

通过对６０年代和９０年代珠江三角洲河网典型汊河泥沙分配变化的对比分析,认为（１）珠江河口区的泥沙主要来自陆相径流挟带的下行泥沙和随潮流挟带的上溯泥沙,其中径流及其挟带的泥沙是现代珠江三角洲建造过程中的基本动力和物质,起着主导作用,而珠江河口区由径流挟带的悬移质泥沙又主要来自西江。（２）西北江干沙处于逐年淤积的总趋势,其中河流段冲淤变化不大,过渡段有冲有淤,以淤为主,潮流段由是普遍淤积。（４）海平面     

Environmental Performance of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Companies in the Pearl River Delta Region (PRDR): a case study of Dongguan City

The environmental performance of foreign direct investment (FDI) companies in the Pearl River Delta Region (PRDR) is examined through a case study of Dongguan City. The influence of host governments, regional/international organisations and export markets is highlighted in the analysis of environmental management systems of the FDI companies. The majority of FDI companies in the region lack effective systems and measures for environmental management. The environmental governance of the host country, the environment-related legislation and policies of the main export markets, and the social responsibility of the company owners are major factors that influence the environmental performance of the FDI companies. A combination of the quality of host government decision making in relation to sustainable development and the high degree of social responsibility and environmental awareness of individual FDI companies is crucial not only to achieving better overall environmental performance but also to achieving better environmental quality in the PRDR.     

对珠江三角洲第四纪断裂运动的再认识

编制了珠江三角洲番禺台地东缘第四纪堆积阶地、陆域钻孔及海域地震探测等一系列联合剖面,分析了抬升区、下沉区和海陆之间的沉积差异和控制因素,剖析了地动型和水动型海平面变化对三角洲形成演化的影响,厘清了各组断裂的活动及其对三角洲沉积发育的影响,结果发现北东东向和北北西向2组断裂为珠江三角洲地区的主要活动断裂,它们共轭联动,控制着珠江三角洲沉积的格局和水道的变迁,尤其是北东东向断裂,可能是南海北部大陆架滨海断裂系的组成部分。相比而言,陆域断裂活动性较弱,以缓慢蠕动和断块的差异升降和掀斜为主,海域断裂活动性较强,滨海断裂带是危险性很高的活动大断裂。三角洲其他方向的断裂更新世以来无明显活动。     

珠江河网横向汊道水面线演变过程及原因探讨 ——以东平水道为例

基于1960-2016年东平水道三水、紫洞、澜石、浮标厂月均潮差、余水位数据及三水、马口站月均流量数据,以1993年三水-马口分流比突变为切入口,探讨余水位坡度及潮波衰减率等径-潮动力改变下,东平水道水面线与余水位曲率的时空演变特征及其影响因素.结果表明:东平水道在1993年三水分流比剧增之后,1)余水位坡度或潮波衰减...     

20世纪30年代珠江三角洲平原河网结构重建及最大槽蓄容量

基于1954年美国陆军制图局编制的中国地形图、1930―1934年日军参谋本部所绘中国地形图、广东省水文志和研究区各县县志等历史文图资料,重建研究区20世纪30年代的河网模型,对传统农业末期平原河网水系进行高精度复原,计算其最大槽蓄容量并分析其区域特点。结果表明：1）20世纪30年代珠三角河网（除干流河道）的最大槽蓄容量为6.78亿~20.75亿m³,其极值为20.75亿m³,平均值为13.38万m³/km²。其中1级河道最大槽蓄容量占总量的33.5%~49.1%,对于整个河网的容蓄洪水能力及水资源调度能力影响更大。与现阶段不同,传统农业时代末期（20世纪30年代）珠三角河网的槽蓄容量与河网密度呈正相关,槽蓄容量的大小受河网密度的影响较为明显。2）20世纪30年代珠三角河网的形成与传统时期的农业开发有着密切的关系,当时的河网水系是自然发育与该时期围田业对其开发、围垦的共同结果,围田开发的兴修堤围、挑挖河道等活动对于河网的扩展及其最大槽蓄容量的增加具有客观上的促进作用。     

Developing an exploration decision support system (EDSS): A strategy for combining information and analytics

Petroleum exploration companies enter the twenty first century facing an increasingly competitive and risky environment. Under those circumstances, there is a growing need for better systematic decision-making that explicitly embodies the firm's desired goals and resource constraints. Computer-aided decision making, or decision support systems (DSS), provide an aid for those exploration management problems that are large, complex, unstructured, and involve management mudgment. Almost every present day DSS falls into one of two general classes. Vehicle DSSs such as linear/nonlinear programming models and other optimization routines, propose and impose specific methodologies to the decision-maker. On the other hand, toolbox DSSs, such as simulation programs, statistical functions, and graphical packages, are generally flexible in enabling their users to employ a variety of approaches and tools for their decision tasks but provide little guidance on both problem representation and investigation. This paper describes the development of a hybrid DSS model that combines the advantages of both the vehicle and toolbox systems components to provide a comprehensive approach to exploration planning from geological development through the capital allocation process. The Exploration Decision Support System (EDSS) preserves the flexibility of the toolbox system while enriching the problem-solving strategies available to the firm. The central objectives for developing an EDSS framework are: (1) better decisions about resource allocations; (2) more systematic understanding of the factors affecting exploration decisions; (3) improved communication about E&P performance objectives and constraints at all levels of decision-making; and (4) an explicit vehicle for continuous improvement of the petroleum exploration firm's decision-making process. The EDSS model can guide geological and exploration managers toward a more formal evaluation of projects, provide insight into the impact of competing choice alternatives, and significantly improve the quality of exploration decisions.     

珠江口枯季盐通量数值模拟研究

采用数学模型手段对珠江河口的盐通量进行了计算和分析.该平面二维水流盐度模型范围包括珠江三角洲河网与八大口门在内,计算结果与实测值符合良好,较好地反映了模拟区域盐度场的时空分布特点.结果显示:珠江河口枯季大潮时的总盐通量为1 954×104t,小潮时总盐通量为512×104t,仅为大潮时的26.2％;无论是在大潮还是小潮期间,大虎和官冲的盐通量所占比例最大,说明盐水入侵主要是通过虎门与崖门这两个通道进入;盐通量沿程明显减少,这是盐度、水通量等沿程变化的综合作用.不同类型水体的盐度等值线在枯季大小潮期间的分布     

基于动态空间面板模型的中国港口竞争与合作关系研究

港口之间的竞争与合作关系是港口资源整合所要理顺和优化的关键问题,关系着港口体系的健康可持续发展。本文采用动态空间面板模型,研究了2000年以来中国港口整体及沿海和内河各区域港口群的竞争与合作关系,并探讨其影响因素。研究表明：中国港口货物吞吐量和集装箱吞吐量存在空间正相关性,且呈现逐渐增强的趋势;从货物吞吐量看,全国范围内的港口和内河港口之间不存在显著的竞争效应,沿海港口之间竞争态势显著,而三者在集装箱运输方面均为竞争关系;五大沿海港口群在货物吞吐量方面的竞争激烈程度排序为环渤海港口群>珠江三角洲港口群>长江三角洲港口群>西南沿海港口群>东南沿海港口群,内河港口群中,仅珠江水系港口群呈竞争态势;珠江三角洲港口群、东南沿海港口群、长江三角洲港口群、长江水系和珠江水系港口在集装箱运输中竞争激烈;港口供求关系、港口规模结构、港口职能结构、港口规划与管理等是影响竞争与合作关系及竞争激烈程度的重要因素。本研究有助于丰富港口地理学的理论研究,并为港口资源整合提供思路和方向。     

珠江河口滩涂湿地的问题及其保护研究

珠江河口滩涂湿地是河口淤泥质淤长型湿地，它的自然特性和生态特点为河口生物资源多样性提供了生存和繁衍增殖的基础条件。随着珠江流域经济社会的发展，珠江河口滩涂湿地面积不断减少，同时还面临各种不可忽视的危机和问题。现以珠江流域水土资源开发利用和管理保护的视角研究珠江河口湿地保护的基本措施，建议加大依法保护河口滩涂湿地，科学利用滩涂湿地岸线，合理划分滩涂湿地的功能，动态研究河口湿地生态的发展，进一步保护河口湿地自然生态和生物多样性，使人与滩涂湿地和谐相处。