随机方法模拟地震动的应用研究

对随机方法模拟地震动的实际应用进行了研究。通过实际模拟验证,此方法简单有效,可为结构抗震设计提供验算依据,同时为设计反应谱的拟合提供参照数据,有一定的实用性,但仍存在一定的不足。     

地震巨灾模型中的随机地震事件集模拟

地震巨灾保险是降低地震灾害风险的有效手段之一,而地震危险性分析是地震巨灾模型的主要分析模块之一。传统的概率地震危险性分析主要是基于潜在震源模型、地震活动性模型和地震动衰减模型等并采用概率方法得到场点的地震危险性值,该危险性表示的是未来所有地震对场点的综合影响。然而,在使用地震巨灾模型进行地震风险分析时需要用到单个地震事件对场点的影响,这就需要根据潜在震源区生成一系列单个地震事件,并计算每个事件对场点的影响。本研究采用蒙特卡洛方法,基于第五代中国地震动参数区划图中所采用的地震活动性模型(潜在震源区及其地震活动性参数),模拟符合我国地震活动时间、空间和强度分布特征的地震事件集。模拟时遵从的基本理论为:地震发生在时间上符合泊松分布,震级分布可用古登堡-里克特定律来描述,空间分布特征则用潜在震源区及其地震发生率来描述。模拟得到的地震事件包含以下参数:时间(年、月、日)、地点(经度、纬度)、深度、震级、断层走向以及衰减特征等。该模拟地震事件集可满足地震巨灾模型中地震风险分析的需求,已应用于我国地震巨灾模型中。     

河道油藏边界面的最优化随机模拟

以河道的观测深度为硬数据,利用贝叶斯理论通过随机建模的方法生成描述河道的方向线和河道几何参数。选这些参数的最大概率作为河道的最优化模型,利用所生成的最优化参数计算出河道砂体的边界面。对大家所公认的横截面为抛物线形状的河道给出了计算的方法,并以此为例实现了这一计算方法。     

随机模型上的地震动模拟研究

介绍了一项随机模拟实验,该实验通过模拟一个具体场址模型的地震动响应了解模型参数不确定性对模拟结果的影响。首先给定一个典型的第四纪沉积层场址模型的参数(包括地层厚度、介质密度、横波速度和品质因子等)的统计特征,并据此在计算机上按截尾的正态分布随机抽样形成了16384个随机模型,然后分别在各个模型上进行SH波地震动响应模拟,最后对所有的模拟结果进行统计分析,了解模型参数的不确定程度与模拟结果变化范围之间的关系。实验结果表明,模型参数不确定性对模拟结果的影响程度是随频率增大的。随机模型地震动响应的第一个放大峰发生在353±031Hz的频率上,其幅值为438±076;第二放大峰发生在885±108Hz的频率上,幅值为422±090。两放大峰值的均方差与均值之比分别为18%和25%。与模型参数20%的相对变化程度大致相当。但更高频率上振幅响应的均方差与均值之比则高达30%～40%。     

Dynamical Implications of Earthquake Modeling Using Stochastic Cellular Automata

Combining stochastic energy import and deterministic energy loss,this paper does digital modeling for earthquake events by using stochastic cellular automata(CA),and derives energy fractal dimension analysis and multifractal analysis for time sequences of "earthquake" events from this model.The preliminary results show that statistical energy-frequency distribution of many events yields to the classic Gutenberg-Richter relation; different energy initial statuses and propagation rules both influence the output of the model.The b value tightly correlates to model parameters.The complexity of earthquake phenomena essentially may be both stochastic and deterministic.     

随机性细胞自动机的地震模拟的动力学含义

结合随机的能量输入和确定的能量损耗，本文用随机性细胞自动机(CA)进行了地震事件的数字模拟，并对事件进行了能量分维和时间序列的多重分形分析。初步结果表明，大量事件的能量-频次的统计分布可能遵从最经典的Gutenberg—Richter关系．不同的初始能量分布和不同的能量传递准则都对模型的输出产生影响，b值与模型参数的设置密切相关，地震现象本质上的复杂性可能是随机性与确定性的统一体现。     

Microseisms: Its dependence on the movement of the source

Summary The displacements on the free surface of a homogeneous isotropic semi-infinite medium has been obtained assuming a moving normal stress on the surface. It has been studied how the displacements behave with (1) the direction of propagation of the source with respect to the recording station and (2) the velocity of the source.     

云南地区地脉动噪声特征分析研究

对地震台站记录到的长时间背景噪声进行互相关可以得到台站间的格林函数, 进而可以对地下介质波速结构和波速变化进行研究。 对背景噪声来源方向和时空演化规律的分析, 是提高结果可靠性的重要基础。 本文利用分布在云南境内的43个宽频带固定台站2008—2010年的垂直分量记录, 计算了两两台站之间的互相关函数, 并用平均能量流的方法研究了云南地区5~10 s以及10~20 s两个频段内地脉动噪声能量的空间分布和时间演化。 研究结果表明, 云南地区5~10 s的地脉动噪声能量优势方向存在明显的季节性变化, 夏季优势能量方位角为180°~210°, 冬季则为70°~100°。 而10~20 s的地脉动噪声优势方向方位角较为稳定, 为180°~210°。 在这两个频段内噪声能量的强度都表现出了较强的季节性变化。 同时发现在5~10 s频段瑞利面波之前存在视速度接近30 km/s的前驱信号, 并对其可能来源进行了分析。     

2016年台风“尼伯特”激发微地动的频率特征分析

台风可以改变海面波浪状态并激发出微地动信号，该信号可以传播至陆地并被宽频带地震仪记录到。本研究以201601号台风"尼伯特"为例，利用短时傅里叶变换，分析了7月3日12时至7月9日0时台风期间中国台湾和日本114个宽频带地震仪垂向分量信号功率谱特征。分析结果发现，在7月5日至7月7日之间，当台风距离台站1500~2000km时，中国台湾、琉球群岛及屋久岛的33个地震台站的地振动信号功率谱密度值显著增强，7月5日前后，在0.4Hz频率左右出现功率谱密度值增强的现象，之后由高频转至低频，7月7日左右功率谱密度值增强频率变化至约0.2Hz。利用全球地震背景噪声能量辐射模型模拟KGM台站所在位置（128.22°E，26.76°N）的双频微地动功率谱，结果表明7月5日至7日0.2~0.4Hz功率谱密度值增强，频率由约0.4Hz变化至0.2Hz的现象为海岸线反射效应所致。     

Residual Separation of Magnetic Fields Using a Cellular Neural Network Approach

—?In this paper, a Cellular Neural Network (CNN) has been applied to a magnetic regional/residual anomaly separation problem. CNN is an analog parallel computing paradigm defined in space and characterized by the locality of connections between processing neurons. The behavior of the CNN is defined by the template matrices A, B and the template vector I. We have optimized weight coefficients of these templates using Recurrent Perceptron Learning Algorithm (RPLA). The advantages of CNN as a real-time stochastic method are that it introduces little distortion to the shape of the original image and that it is not effected significantly by factors such as the overlap of power spectra of residual fields. The proposed method is tested using synthetic examples and the average depth of the buried objects has been estimated by power spectrum analysis. Next the CNN approach is applied to magnetic data over the Golalan chromite mine in Elazig which lies East of Turkey. This area is among the largest and richest chromite masses of the world. We compared the performance of CNN to classical derivative approaches.     

具有空间分布裂缝岩石的随机介质模型

利用随机过程的谱展开理论以及Hudson等人的裂纹介质模型构造一种裂纹数密度是空间平稳随机过程的随机介质模型。这个模型可以将裂纹的微观参数(裂纹数密度)与裂纹介质的宏观性质(弹性常数)联系起来,能灵活、有效地描述实际非均匀裂纹介质。模型算例表明,弹性常数的空问分布特征与裂纹数密度的有差别,而且对不同的弹性常数影响不同。通过改编自相关长度的大小,可以模拟裂缝在两个坐标轴方向上具有不同分布尺度的情况。最后,利用高阶的交错网格有限差分方法,我们模拟了地震波在具有随机分布裂缝岩石中的传播特征。     

强地面运动随机模拟中的几个关键问题探讨

在数字观测资料基础上发展起来的地震动随机模拟方法,能较客观地把研究区的震源特性、传播路径影响和场地响应考虑进来,适用于缺乏强震记录的国家和地区。但在实际应用中,有不少关键问题尚未解决,其中,软基岩的场地响应是地震学家一直想解决但始终没有很好解决的问题;另外,厚覆盖土层的场地响应是工程上很关心的问题,由于资料和方法限制,研究工作做的很少;而强震的震源谱对地震动随机模拟结果影响显著,一直都是随机模拟方法的研究焦点。总之,这两个方面的3个问题都是地震动随机模拟方法应用中的“关键问题”,本文在大量的研究工作基础上,对这些关键问题提出一些探讨性的解决途径和方法。     

2008年汶川8.0级地震地表垂直和水平位移场模拟计算分析

本文采用Okada及Steketee的断裂位错模型,从理论上计算了龙门山中央主断裂和前山断裂在汶川地震中逆冲和走滑错动形成的地表位移场,包括地表垂直和水平位移场的基本特征。并将计算结果与地震科考成果进行了比较,发现计算结果与现场地表变形考察结果在变化趋势上表现出一致性。同时通过计算揭示了断裂错动过程中离断裂一定范围内的地表位移场变化情况,计算结果表明断裂错动形成的地表垂直存在较大的空间不均匀性,且主要集中于断裂的端部即映秀、北川和青川附近,并且位移场在这些地方变化都较强烈。水平位移场主要集中于北川以北的地区,水平位移场的空间变化比较均匀。     

Amplitude Response of a LCR Gravimeter with Feedback at Periods of Microseisms and Earthquake Waves

The amplitude response of a LCR gravimeter with the SRW-E feedback was determined on a vertical vibrating platform. The ink-pen recorder was connected parallel with the digital voltmeter input to obtain an analog response of the gravimeter to the harmonic motion of the base with a peak-to-peak amplitude of 10 m and periods excited in an interval of 4 - 10 s as by the ground motion of meteorological microseisms, and in the interval 10 -100 s as by surface waves of distant strong earthquakes. In the first interval, an unexpected maximum of the amplitude response was observed with the double amplitude of apparent 6,5 Gal (6.5 × 10 _–8 m/s ² ) at a period of 4.8 s, and a baseline shift with the amplitude of–64Gal was observed at the same period. The value of this direct component cannot be separated from the effect of the Earth's gravity field. In the second interval, the amplitude response of the gravimeter displayed one expected maximum at a period of 40 s with the double amplitude of 8.1Gal. At the usual level of microseisms with a peak-to-peak amplitude of up to 2 m the fluctuation of the gravimeter on the direct baseline shifted by –4.9 Gal was estimated at 1 Gal. With typical Rayleigh surface waves with periods of 20 s and double amplitudes of up to 100 m, the fluctuation reached 67 Gal.     

Development of Local IDF-formula Using Controlled Random Search Method for Global Optimization

The aim of the study is to present the effective and relatively simple empirical approach to rainfall intensity-duration-frequency-formulas development, based on Controlled Random Search (CRS) for global optimization. The approach is mainly dedicated to the cases in which the commonly used IDF-relationships do not provide satisfactory fit between simulations and observations, and more complex formulas with higher number of parameters are advisable. Precipitation data from Gdańsk gauge station were analyzed as the example, with use of peak-overthreshold method and Chomicz scale for rainfall intensity. General forms of the IDF-function were chosen and the parameter calibration with use of CRS algorithm was developed. The compliance of the obtained IDFformulas with precipitation data and the efficiency of the algorithm were analyzed. The study confirmed the proposed empirical approach may be an interesting alternative for probabilistic ones, especially when IDFrelationship has more complex form and precipitation data do not match “typical” hydrological distributions.     

Simulation of the Micro-physics of Rocks Using LSMearth

-- The particle-based Lattice Solid Model (LSM) was developed to provide a basis to study the physics of rocks and the nonlinear dynamics of earthquakes (M0ra and Place, 1994; Place and Mora, 1999). A new modular and flexible LSM approach has been developed that allows different micro-physics to be easily included in or removed from the model. The approach provides a virtual laboratory where numerical experiments can easily be set up and all measurable quantities visualised. The proposed approach provides a means to simulate complex phenomena such as fracturing or localisation processes, and enables the effect of different micro-physics on macroscopic behaviour to be studied. The initial 2-D model is extended to allow three-dimensional simulations to be performed and particles of different sizes to be specified. Numerical bi-axial compression experiments under different confining pressure are used to calibrate the model. By tuning the different microscopic parameters (such as coefficient of friction, microscopic strength and distribution of grain sizes), the macroscopic strength of the material and can be adjusted to be in agreement with laboratory experiments, and the orientation of fractures is consistent with the theoretical value predicted based on Mohr-Coulomb diagram. Simulations indicate that 3-D numerical models have different macroscopic properties than in 2-D and, hence, the model must be recalibrated for 3-D simulations. These numerical experiments illustrate that the new approach is capable of simulating typical rock fracture behaviour. The new model provides a basis to investigate nucleation, rupture and slip pulse propagation in complex fault zones without the previous model limitations of a regular low-level surface geometry and being restricted to two-dimensions.     

Using Grey System Theory for Earthquake Forecast

By combining conventional grey correlation analysis,grey clustering method and grey forecasting methods with our multi-goal forecast thoughts and the techniques of grey time series processing,we develop six different grey earthquake forecast models in this paper,Using the record of major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1995,we forecast future earthquakes in Japan.We develop an earthquake forecast model.By using the major earthquakes in Japan from 1872 to 1984,we forecast earthquakes from 1985 to 1995 and check the precision of the grey earthquake models.We find that the grey system theory can be applied to earthquake forecast.We introduce the above analysis methods and give a real example to evaluate and forecast.We also further discuss the problems of how to improve the precision of earthquake forecast and how to strengthen the forecast models in future research.