Modelling the response of river systems to environmental change: Progress,problems and prospects for palaeo-environmental reconstructions

Over the last decade several computational models, and several types of model, have been developed to simulate the response of river systems to environmental change over time scales of decades to millennia: hydrological models, flood inundation models, channel morphology models, channel network models, models of river meandering and river braiding, alluvial stratigraphy models, and landscape evolution models. Each type of model simulates different aspects of a river's response to changes in environmental inputs such as climate and land-use — and to changes in these inputs. And each type of model has its abilities, advantages and limitations. We provide an overview of the different types of model that have been developed, and we evaluate their suitability for testing hypotheses about past environmental conditions, as well as for investigating the response of alluvial river systems to future environmental change. Additionally, we discuss the general issues and problems of computational modelling (e.g. scale and resolution, data availability, process representation, process parameterization, model calibration, non-linearity, and uncertainty), and the extent to which these hamper the usefulness of the models as a tool in environmental landscape studies. Finally, we identify trends in computational modelling research to outline possible future directions of the discipline.     

Identifying influence areas with connectivity analysis – application to the local perturbation of heterogeneity distribution for history matching

Numerical representations of a target reservoir can help to assess the potential of different development plans. To be as predictive as possible, these representations or models must reproduce the data (static, dynamic) collected on the field. However, constraining reservoir models to dynamic data – the history-matching process – can be very time consuming. Many uncertain parameters need to be taken into account, such as the spatial distribution of petrophysical properties. This distribution is mostly unknown and usually represented by millions of values populating the reservoir grid. Dedicated parameterization techniques make it possible to investigate many spatial distributions from a small number of parameters. The efficiency of the matching process can be improved from the perturbation of specific regions of the reservoir. Distinct approaches can be considered to define such regions. For instance, one can refer to streamlines. The leading idea is to identify areas that influence the production behavior where the data are poorly reproduced. Here, we propose alternative methods based on connectivity analysis to easily provide approximate influence areas for any fluid-flow simulation. The reservoir is viewed as a set of nodes connected by weighted links that characterize the distance between two nodes. The path between nodes (or grid blocks) with the lowest cumulative weight yields an approximate flow path used to define influence areas. The potential of the approach is demonstrated on the basis of 2D synthetic cases for the joint integration of production and 4D saturation data, considering several formulations for the weights attributed to the links.     

Aquifer development planning to supply a seaside resort: a case study in Goa,India

Using the hydrogeological and socio-economic data derived from a European Commission research project on the measurement, monitoring and sustainability of the coastal environment, two optimization models have been applied to satisfy the future water resources needs of the coastal zone of Bardez in Goa, India. The number of tourists visiting Goa since the 1970s has risen considerably, and roughly a third of them go to Bardez taluka, prompting growth in the tourist-related infrastructure in the region. The optimization models are non-linear mixed integer models that have been solved using GAMS/DICOPT++ commercial software. Optimization models were used, firstly, to indicate the most suitable zones for building seaside resorts and wells to supply the tourist industry with an adequate amount of water, and secondly, to indicate the best location for wells to adequately supply pre-existing hotels. The models presented will help to define the optimal locations for the wells and the hydraulic infrastructures needed to satisfy demand at minimum cost, taking into account environmental constraints such as the risk of saline intrusion.

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Résumé A l’aide de données hydrogéologiques et socio-économiques, dérivées d’un projet de recherche de la Commission Européenne sur l’étude, la surveillance et la durabilité de l’environnement c?tier, deux modèles d’optimisation ont été appliqués en vue de satisfaire les besoins futurs en ressources en eau de la zone c?tière de Bardez au Goa en Inde. Le nombre de touristes qui visitent le Goa depuis les années 70 a considérablement augmenté et environ un tiers d’entre eux se rend à Bardez taluka, ce qui encourage la croissance des infrastructures liées au tourisme dans la région. Les modèles d’optimisation sont des modèles non linéaires mixtes en nombres entiers qui ont été résolus en utilisant le logiciel commercial GAMS/DICOPT++. Les modèles d’optimisation ont été utilisés pour indiquer premièrement les zones les plus appropriées pour construire des stations balnéaires et des puits pour approvisionner en quantité d’eau suffisante l’industrie touristique, et deuxièmement pour indiquer la meilleure localisation de puits pour l’alimentation des h?tels préexistants. Les modèles présentés aideront à définir les localisations optimales des puits et des infrastructures hydrauliques nécessaires à la satisfaction de la demande à un co?t minimum, tout en prenant en compte les contraintes environnementales, tel que le risque d’intrusion saline.

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Resumen Se han aplicado dos modelos de optimización en base a datos socio-económicos e hidrogeológicos derivados de un proyecto de investigación de la Comisión Europea sobre medición, monitoreo y sostenibilidad del ambiente costero para satisfacer las necesidades futuras de recursos hídricos de la zona costera de Bardez en Goa, India. El número de turistas que visita Goa desde la década de 1970′s ha subido considerablemente y cerca de un tercio de ellos van a Bardez taluka impulsando el crecimiento en la infraestructura turística de la región. Los modelos de optimización son modelos de números enteros mixtos no-lineales que se han resuelto usando el programa comercial GAMS/DICOPT++. Los modelos de optimización se usaron, primero para indicar las zonas más adecuadas para la construcción de centros de diversión en las márgenes del océano y pozos para abastecer la industria turística con una adecuada cantidad de agua, y segundo, para indicar la mejor localización de pozos para el abastecimiento de hoteles pre-existentes. Los modelos que se presentan ayudarán a definir las localizaciones óptimas para los pozos y las infraestructuras hidráulicas necesarias para satisfacer la demanda al mínimo costo, tomando en consideración restricciones ambientales tal como el riesgo de intrusión salina.

     

Participatory model assessment of earthquake-induced landslide hazard models

The study described in this paper investigates the relative merits of two peer-reviewed earthquake-induced landslide models using participatory model assessment. The earthquake-induced landslide hazard models assessed are a simplified Newmark’s displacement model and a recently developed knowledge-based model. Participatory model assessment involves conducting facilitated participatory processes where the model(s) are used for aiding decisions within a socio-behavioral experiment designed for collecting data to evaluate formal hypotheses about the model(s). The paper sets out the design of the participatory model assessment—a series of workshops involving experts and potential model end-users that incorporated a roleplay site selection task. Quantitative data elicited using a set of entrance and exit questionnaires were analyzed to investigate hypotheses about the models. Participants found the knowledge-based model to be significantly more complete and more informative for their roleplay task. Overall, the two models did not yield significant differences with respect to issues such as task efficiency or task outcome satisfaction. Lastly, it was found that education level and disciplinary perspectives (of those analyzed) did not significantly affect outcomes, suggesting that a wide demographic of participants can be used for participatory model assessments. Additional research is needed to assess the models in different contexts, as well as more broadly developing a set of best practices for conducting participatory model assessments of other natural hazard and risk models intended to support decision-making.     

Analyzing Fractal Property of Species Abundance Distribution in A Community

The study of Apecies Abundance Distribution (SAD) is the key of understanding what determines species diversity. The theoretical exploration of SAD relates to the maintenance and conservation of biodiversity, and more importantly, it is conducive to clarifying complicated relationship among species and the distribution of matter and energy in a community. The research on SAD began in the 1930s, and there are so many kinds of theoretical models of SAD that can fit actual data, such as geometric-series model, log-series model, log-normal model, broken-stick model and so on. However, despite this, these models are often restrictive in their hypotheses and difficult to fit by natural communities. Especially, there is not always a good fit to the community that only has a few species. Thus, Frontier firstly introduced a family of models termed the Zipf-Mandelbrot model. This model is unrestrictive and easily fit by different natural community. Accordingly, this paper reviewed its origin, hypothesis, construction, problems and ecological signification of parameters to promote the research of SAD and the determination of species diversity.     

土壤环境中化学定时炸弹的研究现状与展望

土壤环境中的化学定时炸弹对生态环境乃至人类自身危害极大,国内外均有大规模发生化学定时炸弹的实例,但是,由于其不易发现而常常被忽略,这将造成更为严重的后果。化学定时炸弹的分类问题比较复杂,目前较为妥当的做法是对各种分类方案进行有益的探索。化学定时炸弹的触爆机制研究十分重要,是进行地球化学灾害评价、预测和防治的基础;地球化学工程技术是将来预防和治理化学定时炸弹最主要手段。从科学的严密性和严肃性考虑,化学定时炸弹的概念应该由具有更深刻内涵和更广泛外延的“缓变型地球化学灾害”来替代。     

边坡位移预测组合灰色神经网络方法

边坡位移的发展受地质条件、气候环境及人类活动等因素影响,变化趋势复杂,难以建立准确的经典数学模型对其进行全面描述。为了较准确地得到边坡位移数据,采用多模型信息融合技术对其进行预测。首先,将边坡这类影响因素复杂的系统作为一个灰色系统,分别采用GM(1,1)模型、Verhulst模型及DGM(2,1)模型对位移值进行预测;其次,考虑到神经网络的高速并行计算能力和类似人类思维活动的处理机制,利用神经网络方法对不同的灰色预测模型组合,生成灰色神经网络模型。通过反复训练、学习,自动调节,得出各模型在组合模型的合理权重,输出满意的结果。对比发现,利用组合灰色神经网络模型预测的位移值较单独的灰色模型预测的位移值具有更高的精度。     

Scale-dependent fractal dimensions of topographic surfaces: An empirical investigation, with applications in geomorphology and computer mapping

Fractional Brownian surfaces have been widely discussed as an appropriate model for the statistical behavior of topographic surfaces. The fractals model proposes that topographic surfaces are statistically self-similar, and that a single parameter, the fractal dimension, applies at all scales. This paper presents the results of empirical examinations of 17 topographic samples. Only one of these samples shows the statistical behavior predicted by the fractals model; however, in 15 of the 17 samples, the surfaces' variograms could be adequately described by ranges of scales having constant fractal dimension, separated by distinct scale breaks. For scale ranges between adjacent breaks, surface behavior should be that predicted by the fractals model; the breaks represent characteristic horizontal scales, at which surface behavior changes substantially. These scale breaks are especially important for cartographic representations and digital elevation models, since they represent scales at which there is a distinct change in the relation between sampling interval and the associated error.     

Analysis of a more realistic well representation during secondary recovery in 3-D continuum models

The effectiveness of secondary recovery methods in reservoir development studies depends on the knowledge about how fluid-carrying regions (i.e. good-quality rock types) are connected between injection and production wells. To estimate reservoir performance uncertainty, comprehensive simulations on many reservoir model realisations are necessary, which is very CPU consuming and time demanding. Alternatively, we can use much simpler and physically based methods such as percolation approach. Classic percolation assumes connectivity between opposite 2-D faces of a 3-D system; whereas, hydrocarbon production is achieved through active wells that are one-dimensional lines (e.g. vertical, horizontal or deviated wells). The main contribution of this study is to analyse the percolation properties of 3-D continuum percolation models with more realistic well representations during secondary recovery. In particular, the connection of randomly distributed sands (i.e. good-quality rock types) between two lines (representing two wells) located at two corners of the system are modelled by Monte Carlo simulations. Subsequently, the connectivity and conductivity of such a line-to-line well representation is compared with that of face-to-face well representations in the previously published results. The critical percolation properties of those systems as well as the universality concept are also investigated. As there are many rooms for connections in 3-D models, we found that the principal percolation properties will not be altered significantly when the problem with a face-to-face connection is transformed to a line-to-line connection model.     

Investigating the Economic Performance of Tunnel Excavation in Iran: 1998–2013

Nowadays, the world is witnessing the ever increasing need of Tunnel excavation due to their unique features and the kind of human applied plans. This has led to increase in demand of excavating this engineering factor. Tunnel excavation process faces a lot of challenges due to environmental and technological complexities which causes the economic evaluation and investigation of this project to be difficult. It is tried to develop the proposed model with regard to efficiency concept in order to evaluate and investigate the efficiency of relative economic performance of Tunnel excavation projects and turn to its modeling and implementing by data envelopment analysis and Fuzzy DEMATEL techniques. The results in Iran showed that the proposed model can turn to investigation and evaluation of economic efficiency of Tunnel excavation by considering two optimistic (ideal) and pessimistic perspectives such that the Tunnel excavation process of “Karaj water transition” and “Cheshmelangan water transition” among 12 rock Tunnel excavation projects of Iran in the time period of 1998–2013 were respectively introduced as the most efficient and the most inefficient rock Tunnel excavation projects.     

Statistical testing of a new testate amoeba‐based transfer function for water‐table depth reconstruction on ombrotrophic peatlands in north‐eastern Canada and Maine,United States

Proxy reconstructions of climatic parameters developed using transfer functions are central to the testing of many palaeoclimatic hypotheses on Holocene timescales. However, recent work shows that the mathematical models underpinning many existing transfer functions are susceptible to spatial autocorrelation, clustered training set design and the uneven sampling of environmental gradients. This may result in over‐optimistic performance statistics or, in extreme cases, a lack of predictive power. A new testate amoeba‐based transfer function is presented that fully incorporates the new recommended statistical tests to address these issues. Leave‐one‐out cross‐validation, the most commonly applied method in recent studies to assess model performance, produced over‐optimistic performance statistics for all models tested. However, the preferred model, developed using weighted averaging with tolerance downweighting, retained a predictive capacity equivalent to other published models even when less optimistic performance statistics were chosen. Application of the new statistical tests in the development of transfer functions provides a more thorough assessment of performance and greater confidence in reconstructions based on them. Only when the wider research community have sufficient confidence in transfer function‐based proxy reconstructions will they be commonly used in data comparison and palaeoclimate modelling studies of broader scientific relevance. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

多目标模糊优选模型在环境质量评价中的应用

环境质量评价属于多因子识别和排序问题。在实际应用中评价因子的基准往往难以确定 ,从而影响评价结果。针对此问题 ,提出了多目标模糊优选模型 ,它是分析多目标环境系统的一个较新的方法 ,在介绍该理论的基础上 ,建立了环境质量评价模型 ,并在吉林西部进行了应用 ,通过与其它评价方法的比较表明 ,该方法用于环境质量评价具有通用性、合理性和实用性     

故县水库水环境安全评估

为推动水源区水质保护、强化水库水环境安全工作,以故县水库为例,应用DPSIR模型建立了水库水环境安全评估的指标体系,通过熵值法确定了各指标的权重,采用云模型对其2015年的水环境安全进行了评估。结果表明:该水库水环境处于安全等级,但存在安全隐患;由于水土流失和人类活动的影响,使其TN的浓度和入库量增加,水库水质难以达标,需引起水库管理部门的重视。结论:云模型的评估结果与实际相符,实现了水库水环境安全概念与其定量数值间的合理转换,减少了评估过程中的不确定性。     

Capitalist homoficience,the frontier and uneven development in Southern Africa

Frontier studies continue to be compromised by a double inadequacy. While geographers mistakenly cling to obsolete models of frontier process, those who have adopted a more progressive interactionist definition have difficulty conceptualizing the components and dimensions of interaction. The conceptual framework suggested by the literature on the articulation of modes of production is proposed as a partial resolution of the problem. Discarding the abstract and problematical notion of the mode of production as a useful tool for concrete analysis, attention is focused on the concepts and hypotheses suggested by the notion of articulation. It is proposed that in southern Africa, at least, this concept offers geographers a way forward which will circumvent the difficulties currently being experienced by the predominantly liberal interactionist school.     

On the Use of Multivariate Lévy-Stable Random Field Models for Geological Heterogeneity

Increasing attention has been paid to the use of non-Gaussian distributions as models of heterogeneity in sedimentary formations in recent years. In particular, the Lévy-stable distribution has been shown to be a useful model of the distribution of the increments of data measured in well logs. Frequently, the width of this distribution follows a power–law type scaling with increment lag, thus suggesting a nonstationary, fractal, multivariate Lévy distribution as a useful random field model. However, in this paper we show that it is very difficult to formulate a multivariate Lévy distribution with any nontrivial spatial correlations that can be sampled from rigorously in large models. Conventional sequential simulation techniques require two properties to hold of a multivariate distribution in order to work: (1) the marginal distributions must be of relatively simple form, and (2) in the uncorrelated limit, the multivariate distribution must factor into a product of independent distributions. At least one of these properties will break down in a multivariate Lévy distribution, depending on how it is formulated. This makes a rigorous derivation of a sequential simulation algorithm impossible. Nonetheless, many of the original observations that spurred the original interest in multivariate Lévy distributions can be reproduced with a conventional normal scoring procedure. Secondly, an approximate formulation of a sequential simulation algorithm can adequately reproduce the Lévy distributions of increments and fractal scaling frequently seen in real data.     

The relationship between administrative hierarchy position and city size development in China

China's urbanization process in the past 20 years has drawn much academic attention, and as a result, many attempts to explain the uniqueness of China's urbanization have emerged. Some argued that Tolley's model (1987), the well known theory explaining global urbanization, or the `Murray-Szelenyi' thesis (1984), which focus on the investigation of urbanization in socialist countries, can be applied in China. Most western literature, however, claimed either a `rural-bias' or an `urban-bias' from the state took place in China's urbanization process. This paper suggests another perspective in the analysis of this process, as it argues that it was the state bias for the allocation of production and human resources in the cities of higher hierarchical ranking that is behind China's urbanization. The objective of the paper is to test it through two hypotheses. The first hypothesis suggests that the higher the city is in the urban hierarchy, the more population it has; and the second argues the higher administrative position a city has, the better social and economic performance it will show. Using statistical data to validate these two hypotheses, this paper attempts to justify the role of `state-bias' of resources allocation and the dominance of the administrative hierarchy in China's urbanization process. Lastly, the paper argues, the state itself is a major factor or source for China's urbanization development.     

The dynamic economic evaluation method of shale gas resources

At present, most shale gas exploration and development areas in China are difficult to provide sufficient and effective production data to support economic evaluation, since they are still in the initial stage of low exploration level. In addition, ecological and environmental factors are not taken into account in the evaluation process, which does not meet the needs of green energy development of China. Aiming at above problems, the dynamic economic evaluation method of shale gas resources based on calculus principle is proposed. The Arps hyperbolic decreasing curve model will be used in the evaluation of single shale gas well production, which can evaluate single well production of shale gas by fitting the existing dynamic production data to generate the production decreasing curve. Therefore, the variation regularity of the cumulative production of single well shale gas within the study area can be obtained by the model mentioned above. According to the variation regularity of the cumulative production obtained from the Arps hyperbolic decreasing curve model, the recovery period of single well cost, ultimate economic life and the ultimate economic resource can be evaluated dynamically by analyzing the variation regularity of the cumulative sales revenue and cumulative input cost of single shale gas well. Then the evaluation result can be further extend to the whole evaluation areas, in order to analyze shale gas resources ’ economic value in evaluation regions under different shale gas price conditions. The results of the above evaluation methods are not only conducive to improving the economic benefits of relative shale gas development enterprises, but also provide a basis for the national energy strategy deployment.© 2019 China Geology Editorial Office.     

Standardizing sustainable development? The Forest Stewardship Council’s plantation policy review process as neoliberal environmental governance

Trans-nationally-scaled, multi-stakeholder, non-governmental product certification systems are emerging as important elements of neoliberal environmental governance. However, analysts question the extent to which they represent effective alternatives to the damaging impacts of neoliberalized, global production. They call for work examining the environmental politics arising in these new arenas of regulation, where social movements advocating environmental conservation and social justice interact with business interests in debates over how to use neoliberal tools to govern global commodity chains. This article examines The Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) process to revise tree plantation certification standards. First, it considers the political process surrounding standard-setting and argues that tensions between rigor, legitimacy, and acceptability restrain the political struggles over standards within voluntary, multi-stakeholder environmental governance organizations. It proffers findings at odds with the expectation that mainstreaming diminishes the rigor of social and environmental standards. Second, it speculates on the implications of this form of neoliberal environmental governance for promoting more sustainable productions of nature. The review process failed to adequately consider the role of plantation certification in strategies for natural forest conservation. Neither did it adequately consider vital questions of the appropriate scale and location of production, the community actors best suited to deliver both forest conservation and poverty alleviation, or the need to encourage reduced consumption. The reliance on a neoliberal framework and values limits the scope of action. These contradictions suggest that FSC certification is an important part of what needs to be a broader movement questioning current practices of environmentally damaging production and complicit, complacent, consumption.     

Modelling prehistory: from the Crystal Palace Park to ‘Jurassic Park’

Dinosaurs and related ‘prehistoric’ fossil vertebrates have captured the imagination of children and adults from almost their first discovery in the early nineteenth century, and it is not surprising that physical representations of them would be made. From these early beginnings, there must be thousands of different prehistoric models out there in the ‘Dinosaur Toy universe’. Even before the advent of the movie ‘Jurassic Park’, every toy shop had a display area devoted to them, and specialist toy manufacturers were bringing out very scientifically accurate models. But I want to concentrate on my favourites from the pre‐‘Jurassic Park’ era and particularly those available in the USA and Britain. Some may look a bit like tail‐dragging swamp dwellers, but I like them and so do many other collectors. As well as those the avid dinosaur collector might come across at model fairs and online I will also mention some that are more likely to be seen in museum displays.