Hydrological impact of forest fires and climate change in a Mediterranean basin

Forest fire can modify and accelerate the hydrological response of Mediterranean basins submitted to intense rainfall: during the years following a fire, the effects on the hydrological response may be similar to those produced by the growth of impervious areas. Moreover, climate change and global warming in Mediterranean areas can imply consequences on both flash flood and fire hazards, by amplifying these phenomena. Based on historical events and post-fire experience, a methodology to interpret the impacts of forest fire in terms of rainfall-runoff model parameters has been proposed. It allows to estimate the consequences of forest fire at the watershed scale depending on the considered burned area. In a second stage, the combined effect of forest fire and climate change has been analysed to map the future risk of forest fire and their consequence on flood occurrence. This study has been conducted on the Llobregat river basin (Spain), a catchment of approximately 5,000 km² frequently affected by flash floods and forest fires. The results show that forest fire can modify the hydrological response at the watershed scale when the burned area is significant. Moreover, it has been shown that climate change may increase the occurrence of both hazards, and hence, more frequent severe flash floods may appear.     

Influence of storm magnitude and watershed size on runoff nonlinearity

The inherent nonlinear characteristics of the watershed runoff process related to storm magnitude and watershed size are discussed in detail in this study. The first type of nonlinearity is referred to rainfall-runoff dynamic process and the second type is with respect to a Power-law relation between peak discharge and upstream drainage area. The dynamic nonlinearity induced by storm magnitude was first demonstrated by inspecting rainfall-runoff records at three watersheds in Taiwan. Then the derivation of the watershed unit hydrograph (UH) using two linear hydrological models shows that the peak discharge and time to peak discharge that characterize the shape of UH vary event-to-event. Hence, the intention of deriving a unique and universal UH for all rainfall-runoff simulation cases is questionable. In contrast, the UHs by the other two adopted nonlinear hydrological models were responsive to rainfall intensity without relying on linear proportion principle, and are excellent in presenting dynamic nonlinearity. Based on the two-segment regression, the scaling nonlinearity between peak discharge and drainage area was investigated by analyzing the variation of Power-law exponent. The results demonstrate that the scaling nonlinearity is particularly significant for a watershed having larger area and subjecting to a small-size of storm. For three study watersheds, a large tributary that contributes relatively great drainage area or inflow is found to cause a transition break in scaling relationship and convert the scaling relationship from linearity to nonlinearity.     

基于DEM的流域降雨径流模拟——以蒲石河流域山区为例

DEM是目前用于流域地形分析的主要数据,基于DEM的水文模拟技术,在流域地形分析及水系构建等方面已形成了比较成熟的算法,给传统的水文模拟技术带来了根本性的变化。以蒲石河流域山区为例,借助流域水文软件WMS,结合ARCVIEW和SURFER软件,计算了流域的面积、周长、坡度与形状因子等参数。在生成山区数字高程模型的基础上,采用WMS嵌入的HEC-1模型对一场降雨进行了降雨径流模拟研究。     

Une nouvelle méthode de cartographie de la région d’Oran (Algérie) à l’aide de la télédétection multispectrale

We have mapped the region of Oran, Algeria, using multispectral remote sensing with different resolutions. For the identification of objects on the ground using their spectral signatures, two methods were applied to images from SPOT, LANDSAT, IRS-1 C and ASTER. The first one is called Base Rule method (BR method) and is based on a set of rules that must be met at each pixel in the different bands reflectance calibrated and henceforth it is assigned to a given class. The construction of these rules is based on the spectral profiles of popular classes in the scene studied. The second one is called Spectral Angle Mapper method (SAM method) and is based on the direct calculation of the spectral angle between the target vector representing the spectral profile of the desired class and the pixel vector whose components are numbered accounts in the different bands of the calibrated image reflectance. This new method was performed using PCSATWIN software developed by our own laboratory LAAR. After collecting a library of spectral signatures with multiple libraries, a detailed study of the principles and physical processes that can influence the spectral signature has been conducted. The final goal is to establish the range of variation of a spectral profile of a well-defined class and therefore to get precise bases for spectral rules. From the results we have obtained, we find that the supervised classification of these pixels by BR method derived from spectral signatures reduces the uncertainty associated with identifying objects by enhancing significantly the percentage of correct classification with very distinct classes.     

分布式水文模型的GPU并行化及快速模拟技术

分布式水文模型对流域水文过程的应用深度及广度不断加深,常与数值天气及气候预报相结合,面临巨大的计算量。近年来GPU技术的进步使普通电脑能够实现高效而又廉价的并行计算。提出了资料插值、单元产流以及单元汇流采用GPU并行计算,马斯京根法河道汇流采用一种非并行的递归方法。基于笔记本电脑和NVIDIA GPU/CUDA结合C#语言,由分布式新安江模型在沂河流域的模拟应用表明,降水量空间插值及新安江产流的并行执行效率为普通CPU上C#的8~9倍。使用直接递归法实现马斯京根汇流演算比以往采用汇流次序表的执行效率提升0.5~0.9倍。     

Raingauge significance evaluation based on mean hyetographs

This study mainly explores the best relationship between hydrograph parameters and urbanized factors in urbanized areas. Urbanization of a developing watershed is analyzed through 51 available rainfall-runoff simulations from 1966 to 2002. Forty of these rainfall-runoff events were calibrated to determine the relationships between impervious area and urbanized factors. During the calibration process, the block Kriging method was used to estimate the mean rainfall, and its hourly excesses were calculated by nonlinear programming. Then, clear tendencies between parameters and urbanized factors were produced by comparing the results of the annual average and optimal interval methods. The remaining eleven cases were used to verify the established relationships. The calibration and verification results confirm that the integral approaches used in this study can effectively illustrate the hydrological and geomorphic conditions in complex urbanized processes. Parameter n responds more sensitively than parameter k to increasing impervious area and population density. Additionally, parameter n responds more strongly to imperviousness than to population. Therefore, this study demonstrates that an impervious area is the main consequence of ongoing urbanization in the Wu-Tu watershed. The satisfactory results show that kernel response of the watershed would be more sharp-pointed and be shifted forward in peak due to an increased impervious cover.     

Statistical detection and no-detection of rainfall change trends and breaks in semiarid Tunisia—50+ years over the Merguellil agro-hydro-climatic reference basin

Rainfall variability is an important feature of semiarid climates with major effects on hydrology, and beyond on key water-dependent societal aspects. Eventual changes in rainfall variability are a strong driver of change of hydrological processes, resources, and hazards, up to catchment signatures and spatial arrangements. We deal with observed precipitations and subsequent statistical coefficients available from a network of 15 rainfall gauges over and around the Merguellil catchment (1175 km²), with series ranging up to the 1961–2013 period. We look for eventual annual trends and breakpoints with a set of methods: Mann Kendall test, Pettitt test, Hubert segmentation procedure, Buishand U statistic, and Lee Heghinian Bayesian procedure. The results underline oscillation of dry and wet periods; several studied rain gauges (Tella, Oueslatia forêt, Majbar, Kesra forêt, Henchir Bhima, and Haffouz DGRE) denote significant trends in annual precipitation. Some breaks are detected but they are not synchronous. These methods reveal the variability of rainfall regimes in the semiarid region and provide a synoptic view of detection and no-detection of symptoms of change. This work gives opportunities to water stakeholders and climate experts in understanding the relationships between climate variability and water availability.     

Variability in terrigenous sedimentation processes off northwest Africa and its relation to climate changes: Inferences from grain-size distributions of a Holocene marine sediment record

Variations in deposition of terrigenous fine sediments and their grain-size distributions from a high-resolution marine sediment record offshore northwest Africa (30°51.0′N; 10°16.1′W) document climate changes on the African continent during the Holocene. End-member grain-size distributions of the terrigenous silt fraction, which are related to fluvial and aeolian dust transport, indicate millennial-scale variability in the dominant transport processes at the investigation site off northwest Africa as well as recurring periods of dry conditions in northwest Africa during the Holocene. The terrigenous record from the subtropical North Atlantic reflects generally humid conditions before the Younger Dryas, during the early to mid-Holocene, as well as after 1.3 kyr BP. By contrast, continental runoff was reduced and arid conditions were prevalent at the beginning of the Younger Dryas and during the mid- and late Holocene. A comparison with high- and low-latitude Holocene climate records reveals a strong link between northwest African climate and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation throughout the Holocene. Due to its proximal position, close to an ephemeral river system draining the Atlas Mountains as well as the adjacent Saharan desert, this detailed marine sediment record, which has a temporal resolution between 15 and 120 years, is ideally suited to enhance our understanding of ocean-continent-atmosphere interactions in African climates and the hydrological cycle of northern Africa after the last deglaciation.     

Reconstitution de données climatiques pour l’Algérie du Nord : application des réseaux neuronaux

In the present context of climate change and preservation of biodiversity, the appreciation of the vulnerability of the natural ecosystems and their capacity of adaptation appears among the main preoccupations to the world level (GIEC, 2007). This assessment of the ecosystems requires the availability of climatic data, what is often made difficult by the weak density or even the absence of meteorological stations notably, to the level of the mountains zones. In order to study the climate–vegetation relationship in North Algeria, we use an automatic interpolation method, the neural network method, for the reconstitution of climatic data of the sampled sites, (1035 phytoecological samples), from the existing meteorological network (269 stations). This method is characterized by a great suppleness of non-linearity and by its capacity for reconstituting information from partial and not well-defined indications such as the case of data provided from meteorological networks. In order to reconstitution of climatic data, we use the explicate variables, longitude, latitude and altitude, the variables to explain being the rainfall and temperatures. To define the best approach, the network calibration has been activated on climatic parameters taken globally or solely, for the whole of study zone, and by geographical sector. The results of the interpolation are expressed through a climatic parameter cartography, released automatically by the MapInfo software. The reliability results obtained by this method can be appreciated by elaboration of errors maps comparing to reference data.     

Les chaînes de la marge occidentale du Craton Ouest-Africain,modèles géodynamiques

Until now, no satisfactory geodynamic model has been delivered concerning the three main West African orogens: Panafrican 1 (Bassaride belt), Panafrican 2 (Rokelide belt) and Hercynian (Mauritanide belt). However, since the last synthetic paper (Villeneuve, 2008), new geological, geophysical and geochronological data, from the Moroccan Sahara to Sierra Leone, allow us to propose a new geodynamical model. It includes the two Panafrican events in a single model very similar to the present western Pacific margin. An old “West African Neoproterozoic ocean” (WANO) was limited by a set of island arcs separated from the West African craton by a series of “back arc basins”. The closure of this first round of back arc basins around 650 Ma led to the Bassaride belt (Panafrican 1). Then the WANO was subducting underneath the island arcs (between 650 and 550 Ma) meanwhile a new generation of “back arc basins” opened to the east between the arcs and the craton margin. The closure of the WANO and associated island arcs and back arc basins (550 to 500 Ma) led to the Rokelide belt (Panafrican 2). The Hercynian structures involving a Palaeozoic cover (made with continental material) associated to a “greeenschist facies” metamorphism is ascribed to an intracontinental belt.     

Paléoclimat des Petites Antilles depuis 4000 ans BP : l'enregistrement de la lagune de Grand-Case à Saint-Martin

A 2.5-m-thick sequence of lake sediments at the Étang de Grand-Case, Saint Martin (French West Indies) is studied here. Significant hydrological budget fluctuations allows distinction of three main climatic periods: (1) an overall dry period (4200 BP–2300 BP), characterised by carbonated mud, gypsum and storm sand layers; (2) a wet phase (2300 BP–1150 BP) dominated by organic mud; and (3) a more complex phase (1150 BP to present), with detrital inputs due to human activities. Comparison with other regional high-resolution records shows that similar climate modifications typify the whole Mesoamerican and Caribbean area. The climatic phenomena that are implicated in the variations of both precipitation and hurricane frequency over the Lesser Antilles are due to the latitudinal displacement of the inter-tropical convergence zone. These data give new support to the hypothesis of the existence of a correlation between peopling phases and climate variations in the Caribbean as previously proposed by some archaeologists. To cite this article: P. Bertran et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).     

<Emphasis>H</Emphasis>ydrological variability of the <Emphasis>S</Emphasis>oummam watershed <Emphasis>(N</Emphasis>ortheastern <Emphasis>A</Emphasis>lgeria<Emphasis>)</Emphasis> and the possible links to climate fluctuations

The long-term variability of rainfall in the Soummam watershed (NE Algeria) has been analysed over the past 108 years using continuous wavelet method in order to identify the interannual modes controlling the rainfall variability. Statistical analyses of rainfall timeseries have shown its distribution following five periods of time, limited by a series of discontinuities around 1935, 1950, 1970 and 1990. The continuous wavelet transform have demonstrated different low frequency modes: 2–4, 4–8, 8–16 and 16–32 years.The annual band is expanded during the full study period with some pics around 1905, 1920–1935 and 1960; it shows a negative long-term trend, in particular since the period 1970–1990 when a major change has been identified. Then, the relationships between climate patterns of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the hydrological variability in the frequency domain have been investigated; they have shown a mean explained variance of 40 and 24 %, respectively. Such variances are less obvious for the annual mode and increase for the interannual frequencies. The coherence suffer from high perturbations since the period 1970–1990 when the NAO (SOI) shifts from negative (positive) phases to positive (negative) ones. Such anomalies are responsible for significant changes of rainfall variability, emphasising the global warming effects.     

Terrigenous organic matter sources in mid-pleistocene sediments from the orphan knoll,Northwest Atlantic Ocean

The concentration and composition of lignin-derived phenols, which are often used as biomarkers for terrigenous organic matter (OM) inputs, were examined in North Atlantic Ocean sediments from IODP core U1302A (50°9.985′N, 45°38.271′W, 3568 m water depth), Orphan Knoll, 650 km NE of St. John’s, Newfoundland, Canada for the period of ca. 1100–810 ka BP. Lignin-derived phenols were extracted from sediments using CuO oxidation which yielded eight characteristic phenols. The majority of sediments have low syringyl phenol to vanillyl phenol (S/V) ratios and high cinnamyl phenol to vanillyl phenol (C/V) ratios, suggesting predominant concentrations of gymnosperm-derived organic matter inputs from adjacent continents (most likely eastern Canada and possibly southern Greenland). The S/V values were lower for the period of ca. 958–840 ka BP relative to ca. 1090–1078, 1042–958 and 840–818 ka BP, indicating fluctuations in the proportion of angiosperm- and gymnosperm-derived lignin delivery to the ocean. The greater fraction of gymnosperms for the period of 958–840 ka BP likely reflects the response of vegetation in source regions to climate cooling in the early part of the mid-Pleistocene. Lignin-derived phenol concentrations also displayed high variability during the investigated period, which did not show positive correlations with magnetic susceptibility or Gamma Ray Attenuation density. Considering that a fundamental climate change (41–100 ka cyclicity) occurred within the mid-Pleistocene, large variations in abundance and composition of lignin-derived phenols in core U1302A is likely indicative of dynamic environmental conditions, reflected by the variability in both concentrations and types of vegetation on adjacent continents and/or different mechanisms to transport terrigenous organic matter to the deep ocean.     

基于GPU加速技术的非结构流域雨洪数值模型

为高效高精度地模拟流域雨洪过程,应用动力波法求解二维圣维南方程,并耦合水文过程,建立了包含流域降雨产流、汇流、下渗以及洪水演进等过程的高性能流域雨洪数值模型。该模型的优势在于使用非结构网格,可较好地处理不规则边界,准确贴合复杂地形表面,使得模型能精确计算模拟流域雨洪过程,同时引入GPU技术加速计算,使得大尺度流域雨洪计算成为可能。最后,将模型应用于V型经典算例及2个实际流域雨洪算例,所得结果与实测吻合较好,计算所用时间较短,表明该模型可以快速且精确模拟流域雨洪过程。研究结果有助于实现对实际流域雨洪灾害进行合理高效的预测,为应急抢险工作提供有力支撑。     

The Iberian-Roman Humid Period (2600-1600 cal yr BP) in the Zoñar Lake varve record (Andalucía, southern Spain)

The Iberian-Roman Humid Period (IRHP, 2600-1600 cal yr BP), is the most humid phase of the last 4000 yr in southern Spain as recorded in the sedimentary sequence of Zoñar Lake (37°29′00″N, 4°41′22″ W, 300 m a.s.l.). A varve chronology supported by several AMS ¹⁴C dates allows study of the lake evolution at annual scale in response to human impact and climate changes. There are four climate phases within this period: i) gradual transition (2600-2500 yr ago, 650-550 BC) from a previous arid period; ii) the most humid interval during the Iberian-Early Roman Epoch (2500-2140 yr ago, 550-190 BC); iii) an arid interval during the Roman Empire Epoch (2140-1800 yr ago, 190 BC AD 150); and iv) a humid period synchronous with the decline of the Roman Empire (1800-1600 yr ago, AD 150-350). Varve thickness and geochemical proxies show a multi-decadal cyclicity similar to modern North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (60, 20 years) and solar variability cycles (11 yr). The timing and the structure of this humid period is similar to that described in Eastern Mediterranean and northern European sites and supports the same large-scale climate control for northern latitudes and the Mediterranean region.     

Forest–savanna–morichal dynamics in relation to fire and human occupation in the southern Gran Sabana (SE Venezuela) during the last millennia

The southern Gran Sabana (SE Venezuela) holds a particular type of neotropical savanna characterized by the local occurrence of morichales (Mauritia palm swamps), in a climate apparently more suitable for rain forests. We present a paleoecological analysis of the last millennia of Lake Chonita (4°39′N–61°0′W, 884 m elevation), based on biological and physico-chemical proxies. Savannas dominated the region during the last millennia, but a significant vegetation replacement occurred in recent times. The site was covered by a treeless savanna with nearby rainforests from 3640 to 2180 cal yr BP. Water levels were higher than today until about 2800 cal yr BP. Forests retreated since about 2180 cal yr BP onwards, likely influenced by a higher fire incidence that facilitated a dramatic expansion of morichales. The simultaneous appearance of charcoal particles and Mauritia pollen around 2000 cal yr BP supports the potential pyrophilous nature of this palm and the importance of fire for its recent expansion. The whole picture suggests human settlements similar to today – in which fire is an essential element – since around 2000 yr ago. Therefore, present-day southern Gran Sabana landscapes seem to have been the result of the synergy between biogeographical, climatic and anthropogenic factors, mostly fire.     

2000 ans de colmatage du port antique de Fréjus (Forum Julii), France : une double métamorphose littorale

The ancient harbour of Fréjus, located in a Holocene ria, has been the subject of a research program in archaeology and, notably with regards to the sedimentary environment at its foundation. A core was extracted in the middle of the basin of Fréjus harbour. The objective is to understand the paleogeographical evolution of the pre-harbour and Roman harbour environments. The sedimentological and biostratigraphical proxies enabled us to: (1) confirm Texier's (1849) hypothesis in which the pre-harbour environment comprised a marine bay blocked by an artificial quay (Gébara and Morhange, 2010). Excoffon et al., 2006 and Devillers et al., 2007, demonstrate the presence of a rocky coast (butte Saint-Antoine), at the time of the harbour's foundation, which it has been progressively transformed into a sandy coast due to the sedimentary input of Argens delta. This study permitted: (2) to confirm the date of foundation of Fréjus’ harbor; and (3) to show different phases of protection. Indeed, the harbour facies attests to a euryhaline lagoon (B1 and B3) which was gradually transformed into a freshwater lake (B4) due to the progradation of the Argens. Low sedimentation rates (ca. 0.5 mm/year), between the end of the last century BC until seventh century AD is consistent with the dredging of the harbour basin.     

一种时变分布式单位线计算方法

为了解决由降雨强度引起的径流汇流的非线性问题,提出一种基于SCS(United States Department of Agriculture-Soil Conservation Service)流速公式的时变分布式单位线计算方法。引入参考雨强表征SCS公式中流速系数对应的水力条件。由降雨过程的时段雨强与参考雨强的比值构成一个量纲一因子,将该因子加入SCS公式后使其能够考虑降雨对流速的影响。改进后的流速公式用于计算一次降雨过程中不同降雨时段对应的时变分布式单位线,时变分布式单位线与新安江模型的产流模块构成降雨径流模型,将模型用于裴河流域率定参考雨强。率定后的模型用于谭家河流域进行应用检验,结果显示,确定性系数大于等于0.9的洪水场次,由时不变单位线的42%增大为83%。提出的方法能够显著提高流域水文模型的降雨径流模拟能力。     

Modeling and assessing land-use and hydrological processes to future land-use and climate change scenarios in watershed land-use planning

Effective information regarding environmental responses to future land-use and climate change scenarios provides useful support for decision making in land use planning, management and policies. This study developed an approach for modeling and examining the impacts of future land-use and climate change scenarios on streamflow, surface runoff and groundwater discharge using an empirical land-use change model, a watershed hydrological model based on various land use policies and climate change scenarios in an urbanizing watershed in Taiwan. The results of the study indicated that various demand and conversion policies had different levels of impact on hydrological components in all land-use scenarios in the study watershed. Climate changes were projected to have a greater impact in increasing surface runoff and reducing groundwater discharge than are land use changes. Additionally, the spatial distributions of land-use changes also influenced hydrological processes in both downstream and upstream areas, particularly in the downstream watershed. The impacts on hydrological components when considering both land use and climate changes exceeded those when only considering land use changes or climate changes, particularly on surface runoff and groundwater discharge. However, the proposed approach provided a useful source of information for assessing the responses of land use and hydrological processes to future land use and climate changes.     

集群计算在数字流域模型中的应用

随着计算机技术的发展,以消息传递接口(MPI)标准为代表的高性价比集群计算技术使并行计算在大量传统的专业领域也得到了广泛应用.数字流域模型因需要对大范围流域进行分布式的水文、泥沙过程模拟而提出了较大规模的计算需求.同时,基于分水岭的单元划分方式和专门的河网编码方法使数字流域模型的并行化计算具有先天优势.提出了一种典型的并行调度流程,用于完成产汇流计算的动态任务分配.在自主搭建的MPI计算集群上进行的应用实验表明,集群计算提高了数字流域模型的计算效率,能够作为模型的计算平台.最后指出了此应用计算平台的发展方向.