Decomposing the changes of energy-related carbon emissions in China: evidence from the PDA approach

In order to investigate the main drivers of CO₂ emissions changes in China during the 11th Five-Year Plan period (2006–2010) and seek the main ways to reduce CO₂ emissions, we decompose the changes of energy-related CO₂ emissions using the production-theoretical decomposition analysis approach. The results indicate that, first, economic growth and energy consumption are the two main drivers of CO₂ emissions increase during the sample period; particularly in the northern coastal, northwest and central regions, where tremendous coal resources are consumed, the driving effect of their energy consumption on CO₂ emissions appears fairly evident. Second, the improvement of carbon abatement technology and the reduction in energy intensity play significant roles in curbing carbon emissions, and comparatively the effect of carbon abatement technology proves more significant. Third, energy use technical efficiency, energy use technology and carbon abatement technical efficiency have only slight influence on CO₂ emissions overall. In the end, we put forward some policy recommendations for China’s government to reduce CO₂ emissions intensity in the future.     

Assessing the technology impact for industry carbon density reduction in China based on C3IAM-Tice

Thermal power, steel, cement, and coal chemical industries account 62.6% energy consumption and 84.6% carbon emissions of China simultaneously in 2015. This research use C³IAM-Tice model to analyze the impact of advanced technologies ratio increasing quantitatively. The model can explore the balance of emission reduction and economy efficiency of energy use, finally got the technology structure optimization for these four industries. The paper uses the historical energy consumption and CO₂ emission, combing with the low-carbon developing goal objection, to create the database for these four energy- and carbon-intensive industries. As the result, the scenario-4, which is the most advanced technology-oriented strategy, shows 282 Mt CO₂ emission reductions for the 2020 Goal. In this scenario, 26.19%, 47.43%, 65.39%, and 28.98% of the CO₂ emissions per unit of added value in thermal power industry, steel industry, cement industry, and coal chemical industry could be reduced comparing with data in 2005. Although the advanced technology-oriented strategy shows the positive impact, we need to consider the cost of elimination of existed technology. On the other hand, the paper notices the future technology, with new energy alternative, low-carbon economy development, and industry restructure together, which are important factors for the low-carbon development of China.

     

Decomposition analysis of factors driving CO2 emissions in Chinese provinces based on production-theoretical decomposition analysis

Using a production-theoretical decomposition analysis, this study evaluated the driving factors impacting CO₂ emissions between 2001 and 2010 in 28 provinces in China. Factors were decomposed into six indicators: scale effect, technical efficiency, technological progress, change in carbon emission intensity, change in inputs, and change in output structure. The results showed that changes in scale effect and change in inputs were the main factors driving CO₂ emissions growth. Conversely, technical efficiency, technological progress, and change in output structure inhibited CO₂ emission growth. Change in carbon emission intensity had little effect on CO₂ emission growth.     

Using LMDI method to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions in China’s petrochemical industries

China’s petrochemical industries are playing an important role in China’s economic development. However, the industries consume large amounts of energy and have become primary sources of carbon emission. In this paper, the change in carbon emissions from China’s petrochemical industries between 2000 and 2010 was quantitatively analyzed with the Log-Mean Divisia Index method, which was decomposed into economic output effect, industrial structural effect and technical effect. The results show that economic output effect is the most important factor driving carbon emission growth in China’s petrochemical industries; industrial structural effect has certain decrement effect on carbon emissions; adjustment of industrial structure by developing low-carbon emission industrial sectors may be a better choice for reducing carbon emissions; and the impact of technical effect varies considerably without showing any clear decrement effect trend over the period of year 2000–2010. The biggest challenge is how to make use of these factors to balance the relationship between economic development and carbon emissions. This study will promote a more comprehensive understanding of the inter-relationships of economic development, industrial structural shift, technical effect and carbon emissions in China’s petrochemical industries and is helpful for exploration of relevant strategies to reduce carbon emissions.

     

Using decomposition analysis to evaluate the performance of China’s 30 provinces in CO2 emission reductions over 2005–2009

This paper aims to evaluate the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions reduction performance of 30 mainland provinces in China over 2005?C2009. First, the log-mean Divisia index (LMDI) technique is used to decompose the changes in CO₂ emissions at the provincial level into 4 effects that are carbon intensity effect, energy mix effect, energy intensity effect and gross domestic product (GDP) effect. Next, two indicators, decoupling index and rescaled decoupling index, are implemented to evaluate the performance of 30 provinces in CO₂ emission reduction from 2005 to 2009. The decomposition result shows that the GDP growth is mainly responsible for the CO₂ emissions increase, while the energy intensity effect is the key factor for the decrease in CO₂ emissions in each province. Moreover, according to the evaluation, the performance of each province in what concerns the CO₂ emission reduction varies significantly. Most provinces in China made significant efforts in emissions reduction during 2005?C2009, while some provinces only made weak efforts or even no efforts in decoupling progress.     

The effect of directed technical change on carbon dioxide emissions: evidence from China’s industrial sector at the provincial level

Technical change has a pivotal role to play in low-carbon development. Recent research has offered different insights regarding the effect of technical change on CO₂ emissions but ignored the bias of technical changes which lead to changes in CO₂ emissions. To fill the gap, this paper uses the 2008 to 2015 provincial-level data on China’s 22 industrial sub-sectors to investigate both the effect of directed technical change on CO₂ emissions and its heterogeneity. We find that the technical change in most industrial sectors in China was capital-biased, although a labor-biased trend was evident. Labor-biased technical change is conducive to CO₂ reduction, while capital-biased technical change has the opposite effect. Moreover, this effect is different by developmental periods, industries, and regions. Therefore, we propose that the government promotes labor-biased technical change based on the differentiated characteristics.

     

地球科学与碳中和：现状与发展方向

碳中和是当前世界关注的热点,地球科学可以在其中发挥很大的作用。在国际上,政府间气候变化专门委员会、国际能源署、能源转型委员会,以及在国家层面,政策咨询小组已就CO_2减排可能的实现方式提出了一系列模型和预测情景,表明要实现碳中和,电将代替化石燃料成为全球能源的主要载体。在全球迫切需要减排的背景下,地球科学为实现《巴黎协定》气候目标提供地质解决方案至关重要,主要科学问题涉及:储热与地热;干热岩;水电储能;压缩空气储能;核能;碳捕集与储存;氢经济;能源转型需要的矿产原材料。这就需要地球科学:一是对岩石进行地球化学和地质体的岩石力学特征描述,以便在可能开展脱碳的地区储存CO_2和建立绿色能源系统;二是进一步揭示电动汽车电池和风力涡轮机等所需矿产资源的起源和成因;三是从小型实验室尺度扩大到试点、工业化和商业化全尺度规模;四是要了解公众对地下脱碳技术的态度,保证项目安全性。碳中和目标为地球科学研究提供了新的机遇,未来发展需要从多方面提供支持;提高对地球科学在实现脱碳方面关键作用的认识,并发展技术,打造产业链,实现可持续发展。     

Using LMDI method to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions in China’s petrochemical industries

China’s petrochemical industries are playing an important role in China’s economic development. However, the industries consume large amounts of energy and have become primary sources of carbon emission. In this paper, the change in carbon emissions from China’s petrochemical industries between 2000 and 2010 was quantitatively analyzed with the Log-Mean Divisia Index method, which was decomposed into economic output effect, industrial structural effect and technical effect. The results show that economic output effect is the most important factor driving carbon emission growth in China’s petrochemical industries; industrial structural effect has certain decrement effect on carbon emissions; adjustment of industrial structure by developing low-carbon emission industrial sectors may be a better choice for reducing carbon emissions; and the impact of technical effect varies considerably without showing any clear decrement effect trend over the period of year 2000–2010. The biggest challenge is how to make use of these factors to balance the relationship between economic development and carbon emissions. This study will promote a more comprehensive understanding of the inter-relationships of economic development, industrial structural shift, technical effect and carbon emissions in China’s petrochemical industries and is helpful for exploration of relevant strategies to reduce carbon emissions.     

The impact of inter-industry R&D technology spillover on carbon emission in China

Based on input–output table to measure inter-industry R&D technology spillover, this paper introduces inter-industry R&D technology spillover into panel econometric model for carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions factor analysis. Using the panel data of 34 industrial sectors in China from 2005 to 2014, the results reveal that there is an inverted “U-shaped” nonlinear relationship between R&D technology spillover (intensity) and carbon emission; it is estimated that R&D technology spillover can reduce carbon emission currently; the indirect impact of R&D technology spillovers or spillovers intensity through R&D intensity on carbon emissions is also beneficial to carbon emission reduction; at last, this study suggests that industrial sectors should improve R&D intensity and strengthen technical exchanges and cooperation with other related sectors for the purpose of R&D technology spillover increase and CO₂ emissions reduction.     

Study on the CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions embodied in the trade of China’s steel industry: based on the input–output model

The impact of trade on the environment and the climate has become a focus of attention. Tending to develop industries with higher added values, developed countries rely on importing high energy consumption goods from developing countries, and however, some CO₂ emissions are embodied in the process of import. Currently, the accounting method of the territorial responsibility used to get the international data of greenhouse gas inventories ignores the difference between domestic consumption and export demands. Thus, developing countries bear the responsibility of pollution emissions from the export. The steel industry is an important basic industry of China’s national economy as well as a vital part in the industrial system. With the expansion of trade scale, the impact of the export and import of China’s steel on CO₂ emissions is growing. This paper studied the embodied CO₂ emissions in the trade of China’s steel from 2005 to 2014, using the input–output model and the trade data of the China’s steel imports and exports. The results indicate that (1) the complete CO₂ emissions of China’s steel industry are high. (2) The increase in the export scale makes the embodied CO₂ emissions in the trade of China’s steel export increase, and (3) China is a net exporter of CO₂ emissions in the steel trade. Especially after 2007, the value of China’s steel exports has been larger than that of China’s steel imports, so China had borne much CO₂ emissions responsibility in the trade of China’s steel. Therefore, this paper puts forward that, in the future, the export structure of goods should be optimized into the high-tech products with the high added value, low energy consumption and low carbon emissions, and meanwhile, service industry is promoted to improve technical support to reduce CO₂ emissions in the steel industry.     

Carbon geological utilization and storage in China: current status and perspectives

As an emerging technology with the potential to enable large-scale utilization of fossil fuels in a low-carbon manner, carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) is widely considered to be a strategic technology option to help reduce CO₂ emissions and ensure energy security in China. In principle, CCUS can be divided into three categories, namely chemical utilization, biological utilization and geological utilization. Of the three categories, carbon geological utilization and storage (CGUS) technology has obtained the most attention lately due to its ability to utilize underground resources and conditions, to generate further economic benefits, a feature that distinguishes it from other CO₂ reduction technologies. The CGUS technology related in this paper has various types, each with its own potential, difficulties and characteristics. This paper summarizes China’s research findings on the various types of CGUS technology, analyzes their research status, development potential, early opportunities and long-term contributions and recommends major geological utilization methods to policy makers and investors based on China’s natural resources and industrial characteristics. Besides, this paper analyzes the status, mechanisms and limitations of China’s relations with other countries in this field, as a means to promote research cooperation on an international level.     

Strategies for addressing climate change on the industrial level: affecting factors to CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions of energy-intensive industries in China

This paper explores China’s strategies for addressing climate change on the industrial level. Focusing on six energy-intensive industries, this paper applies gray relational analysis theory to the affecting factors to CO₂ emissions of each industry after calculating each industry’s CO₂ emissions during 2001–2010. Further research based on GM(1, 1) model is conducted to forecast the trend of the factors, the energy consumption and each industry’s CO₂ emissions during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. As a breakthrough in previous conclusions, energy consumption structure was divided into the respective proportion of coal, oil, natural gas and electricity in the primary energy consumption, with which industrial output and energy intensity are combined to analyze each of their impacts on the energy-intensive industries. It turns out that all the factors’ impacts on emissions of the six major energy-intensive industries are significant, despite their differentiated extents. It is worth noting that, contrary to previous findings, industrial output is not the leading affecting factor to CO₂ emissions of the energy-intensive industries compared with the proportion of coal and electricity in the primary energy consumption. The GM(1, 1) forecast results of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions by the end of 2015 show that coal and electricity will remain a large proportion in primary energy consumption. This research may shed some light on China’s adjustment of energy structure under the pressure of addressing climate change and hence provide decision support for the acceleration of renewable energy utilization in the industrial departments.     

Multi-peril risk assessment for business downtime of industrial facilities

The chemical industry is one of the most important industry sectors in terms of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in China. However, few studies have undertaken accounting of the CO₂ emissions in the chemical industry. In addition, there are some shortcomings in the traditional accounting method as a result of poor data availability, such as the incomplete consideration of emission sources and overestimation of actual emissions. Based on the traditional accounting method and the actual situation of the chemical industry, this study proposes a method called the Emission Accounting Model in the Chemical Industry, which covers fossil energy-related emission, indirect emission generated by electricity and heat, carbonate-related process emission and the reuse of CO₂. In particular, fossil energy used as feedstock is included. By applying the Emission Accounting Model in the Chemical Industry in China, the calculated CO₂ emissions would be 19–30% less than the result from the traditional method. In addition, it is found that the indirect CO₂ emissions generated by electricity and heat account for 67% of the total amount, the fossil energy-related emissions account for approximately 37%, the process-related emissions accounted for 2%, and reuse of CO₂ accounts for ??6% in 2016. The production of ammonia, ethylene and calcium carbide generated approximately half of the total CO₂ emissions in 2016. In addition, in view of emission sources and carbon source flow, two other bottom-up accounting methods are proposed that can take effect when the chemical plant-level data are available.

     

中国区域碳排放研究

通过比较不同机构和学者对中国区域碳排放的测算结果, 指出现有测算结果间存在巨大差异的具体原因, 按照更加科学准确的方法重新测算了中国各省及中部、东部、西部等主要区域的能源和水泥的碳排放量, 以此为基础, 通过对比分析, 对1990至2008年间不同区域碳排放总量、人均排放量、碳排放强度等重要指标的差异进行了系统分析。研究表明: 中国的区域碳排放格局是东部地区排放总量和累计排放量最大, 但西部地区排放总量及占全国的份额有逐步增加的趋势; 着重指出西部地区作为中国下一轮经济发展最重要的增长点, 其目前的人均碳排放量和碳排放强度均高于相同发展阶段的其他地区, 如不尽快转变其发展模式, 则会使未来的节能减排形势异常严峻, 中国的低碳经济之路仍旧任重而道远。     

The nexus between income inequality,economic growth and environmental degradation in Pakistan

This study examines the impact of income inequality and economic growth on environmental degradation in Pakistan using ARDL bounds testing approach for the period 1966–2011. Empirical results for the aggregate CO₂ emissions and its four sources such as CO₂ emissions from solid fuel, liquid fuel and gaseous fuel consumption as well as electricity and heat production confirm the existence of long run co-integrated relationship between income inequality, economic growth and environment degradation. The estimated results indicate that carbon emissions increase as the income gap expands in Pakistan. Besides the negative impact of industrial share and population density on CO₂ emissions, we also confirm that economic growth in Pakistan comes up with higher emissions. Hence, the hypothesis of EKC is not valid for Pakistan during the study period. Our empirical findings are robust as evidenced by dynamic ordinary least squared and the U-tests. Overall, this study suggests that the distribution of income matters to aggregate carbon emissions and focus should be made on sustained economic growth to reduce pollutants and hence CO₂ emission in the study area.     

Water consumption,agriculture value added and carbon dioxide emission in Iran,environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis

Agriculture and natural resources have a mutual relationship with each other. The purpose of this study was to evaluate forward and backward relationship between natural resources and agricultural development. The relationship between the consumption of water and agricultural value added per capita income has been studied in order to obtain the forward relationship, and the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and per capita income of the Iran’s agricultural sector has been assessed in order to obtain backward relationship. To test these relationships, the Kuznets theory is used. Therefore, Iran’s provinces information from 2001 to 2013 was used and models were estimated by using the panel data and spatial econometric. Results showed that there was an inverted U relationship between per capita income and water consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. Also, spatial estimation showed that both water consumption and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in agricultural sector had a direct relationship with the value of these two variables in the neighboring areas.     

丝绸之路经济带节点城市人文驱动因素对环境的影响

“一带一路”上升为国家战略,推进丝绸之路经济带建设使中国西北地区由过去发展的腹地转变为开放的前沿。通过引入STIRPAT模型,研究分析了丝绸之路经济带节点城市人文驱动因素对环境的影响,设定了三种情景分析节点城市未来低碳发展情况。结果表明：人文驱动因素对碳排放的影响程度较大,模型拟合优度达到95.2%,能源消耗强度（T）、富裕程度（A）和人口数量（P）的弹性系数分别为0.511、0.285和0.222,基准情景下二氧化碳排放总量呈现稳步上升态势,政策情景和低碳情景下碳排放存在“拐点”,预计碳排放峰值将在2025-2033年间出现,低碳情景峰值比政策情景提前8 a到达,峰值总量减少40.79×10⁴ t。最后针对分析结果就丝绸之路经济带节点城市人文驱动因素对环境的影响提出了相关建议,即控制人口数量、优化产业结构、强化污染治理。     

A sensitivity analysis of factors affecting in geologic CO2 storage in the Ordos Basin and its contribution to carbon neutrality

To accelerate the achievement of China’s carbon neutrality goal and to study the factors affecting the geologic CO₂ storage in the Ordos Basin, China’s National Key R&D Programs propose to select the Chang 6 oil reservoir of the Yanchang Formation in the Ordos Basin as the target reservoir to conduct the geologic carbon capture and storage (CCS) of 100000 t per year. By applying the basic theories of disciplines such as seepage mechanics, multiphase fluid mechanics, and computational fluid mechanics and quantifying the amounts of CO₂ captured in gas and dissolved forms, this study investigated the effects of seven factors that influence the CO₂ storage capacity of reservoirs, namely reservoir porosity, horizontal permeability, temperature, formation stress, the ratio of vertical to horizontal permeability, capillary pressure, and residual gas saturation. The results show that the sensitivity of the factors affecting the gas capture capacity of CO₂ decreases in the order of formation stress, temperature, residual gas saturation, horizontal permeability, and porosity. Meanwhile, the sensitivity of the factors affecting the dissolution capture capacity of CO₂ decreases in the order of formation stress, residual gas saturation, temperature, horizontal permeability, and porosity. The sensitivity of the influencing factors can serve as the basis for carrying out a reasonable assessment of sites for future CO₂ storage areas and for optimizing the design of existing CO₂ storage areas. The sensitivity analysis of the influencing factors will provide basic data and technical support for implementing geologic CO₂ storage and will assist in improving geologic CO₂ storage technologies to achieve China’s carbon neutralization goal.©2022 China Geology Editorial Office.     

Black carbon and organic carbon emissions from wildfires in Mexico

In Mexico, approximately 7650 wildfires occur annually, affecting 263 115 hectares of land. In addition to their impact on land degradation, wildfires cause deforestation, damage to ecosystems and promote land use change; apart from being the source of emissions of toxic substances to the environment (i.e., hydrogen cyanide, black carbon and organic carbon). Black carbon is a short-lived greenhouse pollutant that also promotes snow and ice melting and decreased rainfall; it has an estimated global warming potential close to 5000.¹ We present an estimate of the black carbon and organic carbon emissions from wildfires in Mexico from 2000 to 2012 using selected emission factors from the literature and activity data from local agencies. The results show average emissions of 5955 Mg/yr for black carbon and 62 085 Mg/yr for organic carbon. Black carbon emissions are estimated to be 14 888 Gg CO₂ equivalent (CO₂ eq) per year on average. With proper management of wildfires, such emissions can be mitigated. Moreover, improved air quality, conservation of ecosystems, improvement of visibility and maintenance of land use are a subset of the related co-benefits. Mitigating forest organic carbon emissions, which are ten times higher than black carbon emissions, would also prevent the morbidity and mortality impacts of toxic organic compounds in the environment.     

Numerical simulation and optimization of CO2 sequestration in saline aquifers for vertical and horizontal well injection

With heightened concerns on CO₂ emissions from pulverized-coal (PC) power plants, there has been major emphasis in recent years on the development of safe and economical geological carbon sequestration (GCS) technology. Saline aquifers are considered very attractive for GCS because of their large storage capacity in U.S. and other parts of the world for long-term sequestration. However, uncertainties about storage efficiency as well as leakage risks remain major areas of concern that need to be addressed before the saline aquifers can be fully exploited for carbon sequestration. A genetic algorithm-based optimizer has been developed and coupled with the well-known multiphase numerical solver TOUGH2 to optimally examine various injection strategies for increasing the CO₂ storage efficiency as well as for reducing its plume migration. The optimal injection strategies for CO₂ injection employing a vertical injection well and a horizontal injection well are considered. To ensure the accuracy of the results, the combined hybrid numerical solver/optimizer code was validated by conducting simulations of three widely used benchmark problems employed by carbon sequestration researchers worldwide. The validated code is then employed to optimize the proposed water-alternating-gas injection scheme for CO₂ sequestration using both the vertical and the horizontal injection wells. The results suggest the potential benefits of CO₂ migration control and dissolution. The optimization capability of the hybrid code holds a great promise in studying a host of other problems in GCS, namely how to optimally enhance capillary trapping, accelerate the dissolution of CO₂ in water or brine, and immobilize the CO₂ plume.