Role of early warning systems for sustainable agriculture in Iran

Drought is a complex phenomenon in meteorology and can affect agriculture. Its impacts vary greatly since they depend not only on the magnitude, timing, duration, and frequency of rainfall deficits but also on the differing responses of various plants to water stress. The essence of good drought management is to use this range of responses to the best advantage. Iran is one of the world’s largest and most productive suppliers of food and fiber. The objective of this study was, therefore, to gather and analyze standardized information on the Role of Early Warning Systems for Sustainable Agriculture for cereals and leguminous and industrial crops in Iran environmental zones. Annual average rainfall (mm year^?1) and ET_O (mm year^?1) are 76.56 and 3001, respectively, in stations with very dry climate; 195.41 and 2249, respectively, in stations with dry climate; 343.9 and 1351, respectively, in stations with semi-dry climate; 583.8 and 1153, respectively, in stations with semi-humid climate; and 1272 and 949, respectively, in stations with humid climate. The maximum and minimum of annual average rainfall happened in Rasht (1337 mm year^?1) and Zabol (57 mm year^?1) stations, and the maximum and minimum for annual average ET_O happened in Chabahar (3909.15 mm year^?1) and Anzali harbor (890.6 mm year^?1), respectively. Therefore, 13.63 % of stations have suitable conditions for crop productions and 86.37 % are in critical conditions.     

Diagnosis of historical inundation events in the Marshall Islands to assist early warning systems

Inhabitants of low-lying coral atolls benefit from disaster risk reduction decision makers receiving early warnings of coastal inundation leading to heightened levels of alert and preparedness. Majuro, the capital of the Marshall Islands, is a coral atoll that experiences coastal inundation events on a near annual frequency and is likely to be exacerbated by sea-level rise, increasing the importance of early warning systems. However, current early warnings are not always provided for every inundation event. Inundation is driven by a combination of various oceanographic processes that contribute to sea level at the coastline, with the primary driver dependent on how extreme a particular process may be at the time. Incoming swell from distant storms and cyclones can trigger an inundation event, especially when coinciding with high spring tides and/or sea-level anomalies. Historical data from three directional scenarios were analysed to determine the critical values for offshore wave height, peak period, directional range, and sea level that had led to inundation in the past. Bulk wave statistics and static sea level were found to be sufficient information to identify the occurrence of an inundation event. These inundation thresholds serve as a reference to be used in conjunction with forecast models as an analogue for future events informing both the likelihood and impact. The analysis showed that inundation with a significant contributing swell factor propagates via three main routes, with approximately 50% occurring from the north-east. The two highest sea-level measurements on record both occurred during La Niña events, with both leading to inundation, suggesting that spring tides during La Niña events should exhibit a heightened level of alert for inundation at Majuro regardless of swell contribution.

     

Spatially distributed rainfall information and its potential for regional landslide early warning systems

Hydrological extreme events pose an imminent risk to society and economics. In this paper, various aspects of hydrological hazards in Russia are analysed at different scales of risk assessment. It is shown that the number of hydrological and meteorological hazards in Russia has been growing every year. The frequency of economic losses associated with extreme low flow in this century has increased by factor five compared to the last decade of the previous century. With regard to floods, an interesting spatial patter can be observed. On the one hand, the number of floods in the Asian part of the country has increased, whereas on the other hand, the number and intensity of floods in estuarine areas in the European part of Russia have significantly reduced since the middle of the twentieth century, especially in the 2000s. This decrease can be attributed to runoff flooding in the mouths of regulated rivers, with an effective system of flood and ice jam protection. The analysis shows that there is an 8–12-year periodicity in the number of flood occurrences and that flood surges have intensified over the last 110 years, especially on the European territory of Russia. An integrated index that accounts for flood hazards and socio-economic vulnerability was calculated for each region of Russia. A classification of flood risk was also developed, taking into account more than 20 hydrological and social–economic characteristics. Based on these characteristics, hazard and vulnerability maps for entire Russia were generated which can be used for water management and the development of future water resources plans.     

r.massmov: an open-source landslide model for dynamic early warning systems

This paper illustrates the main characteristics of the newly developed landslide model r.massmov, which is based on the shallow water equations, and is capable of simulating the landslide propagation over complex topographies. The model is the result of the reimplementation of the MassMov2D into the free and open-source GRASS GIS with a series of enhancements aiming at allowing its possible integration into innovative early warning monitoring systems and specifically into Web processing services. These improvements, finalized at significantly reducing computational times, include the introduction of a new automatic stopping criterion, fluidization process algorithm, and the parallel computing. Moreover, the results of multi-spatial resolution analysis conducted on a real case study located in the southern Switzerland are presented. In particular, this analysis, composed by a sensitivity analysis and calibration process, allowed to evaluate the model capabilities in simulating the phenomenon at different input data resolution. The results illustrate that the introduced modifications lead to important reductions in the computational time (more than 90 % faster) and that, using the lower dataset resolution capable of guaranteeing reliable results, the model can be run in about 1 s instead of the 3.5 h required by previous model with not optimized dataset resolution. Aside, the results of the research are a series of new GRASS GIS modules for conducting sensitivity analysis and for calibration. The latter integrates the automated calibration program “UCODE” with any GRASS raster module. Finally, the research workflow presented in this paper illustrates a best practice in applying r.massmov in real case applications.     

Spatially distributed rainfall information and its potential for regional landslide early warning systems

Crucial to most landslide early warning system (EWS) is the precise prediction of rainfall in space and time. Researchers are aware of the importance of the spatial variability of rainfall in landslide studies. Commonly, however, it is neglected by implementing simplified approaches (e.g. representative rain gauges for an entire area). With spatially differentiated rainfall information, real-time comparison with rainfall thresholds or the implementation in process-based approaches might form the basis for improved landslide warnings. This study suggests an automated workflow from the hourly, web-based collection of rain gauge data to the generation of spatially differentiated rainfall predictions based on deterministic and geostatistical methods. With kriging usually being a labour-intensive, manual task, a simplified variogram modelling routine was applied for the automated processing of up-to-date point information data. Validation showed quite satisfactory results, yet it also revealed the drawbacks that are associated with univariate geostatistical interpolation techniques which solely rely on rain gauges (e.g. smoothing of data, difficulties in resolving small-scale, highly intermittent rainfall). In the perspective, the potential use of citizen scientific data is highlighted for the improvement of studies on landslide EWS.     

ANSYS在土洞演化预警中的应用

以桂林某高速公路为工程依托点,在全面分析现有高速公路覆盖地区的岩溶土洞的监测预警技术的基础上,选取TDR监测技术作为主要研究手段,并用ANSYS模拟了TDR监测全过程。模拟结果表明,在基岩面以上厚5.0 m左右的土层中发育有土洞且直径3.0 m以上时,可能对地面造成破坏,当土层厚度不变（5.0 m）,梁的截面尺寸一定（8 cm×6.5 cm）,土洞沿基岩面慢慢往上发育时,随着土洞发育直径的不断增大,地面变形也就越明显,且变形趋势呈缓慢的直线型; 当土洞直径为2.0 m,埋深为4.0 m,或土洞直径为4.0 m,埋深为3.0 m时,梁埋深从2.0 m开始,其变形趋于平缓;当土洞直径为3.0 m时,埋深为3.5 m,梁埋深从1.0 m到3.0 m,其变形量基本相当;当土洞直径为5.0 m,土洞顶板埋深为2.5 m,梁埋深分别为1.0 m、2.0 m,其基本保持一致,分别为6.74×10－2 m、6.75×10－2 m,即达到极限平衡状态,说明监测梁布设在距离土洞顶板2 m范围内时,可比较有效地监测到土洞变形破坏的演化趋势。      

Using small spatial units to refine our perception of rural America

More than half of the US rural population lives inside metro or micropolitan areas and even at more disaggregated scales, such as the census tracts, most spatial units mix rural and urban population. At a national scale, only 30% of the country are inhabited by 100% urban or 100% rural population, implying that more than two third of the US territory are somewhere in between both situations. As the rural/urban dichotomy appears today to be blurred by the emergence of new phenomena like rurbanization or exurbanization, our perception of rural America may be somewhat twisted and the reality of rural areas underplayed. This paper focuses on using finer-grade spatial units such as the census blocks and block groups, in order to provide new elements about the extension, localization and characteristics of rural America as well as about its inner dynamics. To that end, we analyze and process geographical and social data at these two levels of information, and use population density as a main factor of analysis. This allows us not only to propose new measurement of the extent of rural space in the USA but also to propose a new vision of its spatial dynamics by studying how several social indicators such as income, median age or sex ratio reveal regional and micro-regional variations and situations in the rural part of the US.     

水资源承载力预警研究进展

针对水资源承载力预警方法的研究,通过揭示水资源-社会经济-生态环境复合系统间各要素的相互作用机制,可有效地对水资源承载力的突发和异常状况进行事前行为评价和预警,是资源环境承载能力预警研究的关键组成部分。为此,借鉴有关学科领域对预警系统现有的研究成果,立足于水资源承载力预警系统的概念和机制,从诊断、预测、评价和调控方面对水资源承载力预警的主要方法进行综述,并提出水资源承载力预警未来研究重点和主要发展方面的建议,包括:① 进一步完善水资源承载力预警系统的概念界定;② 构建水资源承载力预警指标体系;③ 深入水资源承载力预警系统的整体研究;④ 重视实现水资源承载力预警动态性预测;⑤ 进一步加强水资源承载力调控措施方面的研究。     

预报预警在地质灾害防治中的应用

本文介绍了江西地质灾害气象预报模型的建立、计算方法,以及预警预报在地质灾害防治工作中获得的成功,对类似条件地区的地质灾害防治工作,具有一定的借鉴作用.     

2002-2019年江西省省级地质灾害气象预警分析

江西省是我国地质灾害高发、频发的主要省区之一.2002年,原江西省国土资源厅与江西省气象局合作,首次在江西卫视天气预报节目中发布了全国第一个省级地质灾害气象预警产品.江西省省级地质灾害气象预警工作历经十余年的发展,预警等级划分主要采用图层叠加法,经历了无预警等级、五级预警等级、四级预警等级3个阶段,预警信息越来越精准.2002年至2019年年底,共发布预警信息298期,其中红色(五级)预警9期,橙色(四级)预警80期,黄色(三级)预警190期,蓝色预警15期,无等级预警4期;20022005年为预警发布尝试阶段,发布的预警信息较少;2006年始,发布的预警信息有较大程度增长.2002年至2019年年底,成功预报地质灾害事件856起,避免可能的人员伤亡8 885人,预警成效显著.对2011年以来172期预警命中率和空报率的年均值进行统计,发现命中率尚可,但空报率较高.预警工作主要存在的问题为预警信息仍为手工制作、预案对预警等级划分已出现不适用情况、未制定预警校验要求等.后期预警工作将向自动化、精细化及短临预警方向发展.     

滑坡实时监测预警系统的实验室实现

用传感器对滑坡实施监测是一种有效的监测预警手段,但由于受一些因素的限制,在实验室进行滑坡监测技术有效性的研究方面仍有一定的难度。本文以振弦式传感器为例,提出了传感器辅助机械工装以完成传感器在实验室实现滑坡监测数据模拟采集的设计思路,并通过对模拟数据进行多次测量演算了传感器及其辅助装置的可靠性。同时,为便于对监测数据进行及时有效的管理和分析,还采用VC++语言所编制的管理程序对获取的监测数据实施有效的管理和分析。结果表明,对给定信号的监测效果好,响应快,误差小,能较好地模拟滑坡现场监测。     

Rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning system in Nakhon Si Thammarat

Transient seepage in unsaturated soil slope is one of the significant triggering factors in rainfall-induced landslides. Rainfall infiltration leads to the decrease in stabilizing effect because of increased positive pore-water pressures. SEEP/W and SLOPE/W used in this study have been widely employed to describe frameworks for understanding transient seepage in soil slope, and to perform slope stability analyses, respectively. The study area is in Sichon District in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, southern Thailand. A landslide there was investigated by modeling the process of rainfall infiltration under positive and negative pore-water pressures and their effects on slope stability. GIS (Geographic Information System) and geotechnical laboratory results were used as input parameters. The van Genuchten’s soil water characteristic curve and unsaturated permeability function were used to estimate surface infiltration rates. An average rainfall was derived from 30-year monthly rainfall data between 1981 and 2011 in this area reported by the Thailand Royal Irrigation Department. For transient condition, finite element analysis in SEEP/W was employed to model fluctuations in pore-water pressure during a rainfall, using the computed water infiltration rates as surface boundary conditions. SLOPE/W employing Bishop simplified method was then carried out to compute their factors of safety, and antecedent precipitation indices (API) calculated. Heterogeneous slope at the site became unstable at an average critical API (API_cr) of 380 mm, agreeing well with the actual value of 388 mm.     

GIS-PModflow联合系统在松嫩平原西部潜水环境预警中的应用

针对松嫩平原西部地下水潜水位变化对环境产生影响的现状,运用GIS-PModflow联合系统确定了地下水环境预警警戒线,采用以不至于发生土壤盐碱化的潜水临界水位作为上警戒线值,以潜水开采极限深度作为下警戒线值。在对系统模型概化的基础上,进行了潜水位的数值模拟和预报。利用GIS空间分析方法对图像数据进行栅格叠加和属性判断,通过对预报水位与警戒水位对比,进行水环境预警。结果表明,研究区2015年的警情较1999年增加,且以灌溉后潜水位上升引起的土壤次生盐渍化的警情为主。     

中国地质灾害气象预警初步研究

根据致灾地质环境条件和气候因素,将中国划分为7个大区、28个预警区。根据对历史时期所发生的地质灾害点和灾害发生之前15日内实际降水量及降水过程的统计分析,创建了地质灾害气象预警等级判据模式图,初步制作了各预警区的预报预警判据图;根据检索到的研究资料建立了部分预警区的判据校正图。据此,在每天收到中国国家气象中心发来的全国降雨预报数据和图像半小时内,对所预报的次日降雨过程是否诱发地质灾害和诱发灾害的空间范围、危害强度进行预报预警。2003年的试验运行表明,地质灾害气象预警在技术上是可行的,能够为主动减灾做出贡献。     

Debris-flow Indicator for an early warning system in the Aosta valley region

Natural Hazards - Aosta Valley, an Alpine region in north-western Italy, has an early warning system (EWS) that issues hydrogeological alerts based on hydrological modelling and rainfall thresholds...     

西南地区泥石流灾害及防灾预警

西南地区山地分布广泛，地质条件复杂，构造运动剧烈，是山地灾害严重地区之一，其中泥石流灾害尤为突出。它们严重地威胁着人民生命财产安全，给国民经济造成重大损失。为此，加强泥石流灾害的防治和研究极为必要。文章论述了西南地区泥石流的特征、形成原因和分布规律，总结当前泥石流的防治及其预测预报的方法和经验，详细地论述了西南地区泥石流灾害仿治应以预防为主，指出今后防治泥石流灾害的发展方向是成灾信息采集和传输的网络化、实时化、自动化、数字化(可视化)等，使其成灾信息能够实现实时更新，便于科学管理及信息可视，从而准确、实时地预报、预警，为泥石流灾害防治提供科学依据。     

贵州兴义滑坡特征及过程预警研究

本文以新源县喀拉海依苏滑坡隐患体为研究案例,采用COMSOL Multiphysics数值模拟有限元软件,建立了基于非饱和渗流理论与Mohr-Coulomb准则的滑坡稳定性计算模型。根据数值模拟结果得到研究区滑坡体原始应力分布与初始孔隙压力的分布情况、在降雨入渗条件下的内部应力、有效塑性应变、塑性区、含水率、潜在滑移面等的分布情况,并计算得到滑坡体在降雨入渗条件下的安全系数。根据模型计算,滑坡体在不同降雨入渗工况下的安全系数随降雨量的增大而减小,滑坡体在连续降雨5天的临界阈值为218.82 mm,根据安全系数的变化可得到滑坡体临界降雨阈值。该论文提供了一种强度折减安全系数计算降雨型黄土滑坡降雨阈值的数值模拟方法,研究结果为西北地区降雨型黄土滑坡失稳破坏的临界降雨阈值研究提供了一种有效的研究手段。