柴达木盆地东部三湖地区四系米兰柯维奇旋回分析

自然伽马曲线包含丰富的地质信息,能够很好地反映由气候变化引起的地层旋回.本文采用频谱分析对柴达木盆地三湖地区第四系自然伽马测井曲线进行了系统分析.作为频谱分析方法之一的快速傅里叶变换能够将自然伽马曲线从时间（深度）域转换为频率域,然后分析每一个峰值频率的波长及其相互之间的比率关系,寻找那些波长比率与米兰柯维奇周期比率相同或相似的频率,从而捕获高频旋回信息.研究结果表明第四系地层中很好地保存了高频的米兰柯维奇旋回,这样的沉积旋回主要由地球轨道的周期性变化而导致的古气候变化引起的.偏心率周期引起的地层旋回厚度变化范围在92.00~115.00 m之间,黄赤交角引起的地层旋回厚度变化范围在24.55~63.43 m之间,岁差引起的地层旋回厚度变化范围在16.8~26.35 m之间.黄赤交角和岁差是影响该区米兰柯维奇旋回的主要因素,其中岁差的影响最大,而偏心率的影响最小.     

The energy spectrum of Forbush decreases during the growth phase of solar cycle 24

The Forbush decrease energy spectrum, observed during the growth phase of cycle 24 in 2010–2012, was studied based on the measurements performed with the Kuzmin cosmic ray spectrograph. The data of the 24-NM-64 neutron monitor and muon telescopes, installed at water equivalent levels of 0, 7, 20, and 40 m, was used. The performed analysis indicated that a softer energy spectrum was observed during the growth phase of cycle 24 than during the previous cycle (cycle 23). The conclusion was been drawn that a more turbulent magnetic field with the predominant diffusion mechanism in the formation of the Forbush decreases in the cosmic ray intensity exists in the current cycle (cycle 24).     

频谱分析方法在气氡周期分析中的应用

利用数字信号处理的相关理论与方法,对聊古1井两年的气氡逐时值数据进行适当的滤波处理,用频谱分析的方法提取潜在周期信息。结果表明：聊古I井气氡数据除明显的年周期外,还存在12小时、24小时的短周期效应和1～2个月的中长周期波动。说明数字信号处理技术对地震前兆数据处理有很好效果和应用前景。     

Prediction of sunspot number amplitude and solar cycle length for cycles 24 and 25

The prediction of solar activity strength for solar cycles 24 and 25 is made on the basis of extrapolation of sunspot number spectral components. Monthly sunspot number data during the 1850–2007 interval (solar cycles 9–23) are decomposed into several levels and searched for periodicities by iterative regression in each level. For solar cycle 24, the peak is predicted in November 2013 with a sunspot number of 113.3. The cycle is expected to be weak, with a length of 133 mo (months) or 11.1 yr. The sunspot number maximum in cycle 25 is predicted to occur in April 2023 with a sunspot number 132.1 and a solar cycle length of 118 mo or 9.8 yr. Thus, solar cycle 24 is predicted to have an intensity 23% lower than cycle 23, and cycle 25 will be 5% lower than cycle 23.     

Relations of latitudinal characteristics of sunspot groups to the 11-year cycle amplitude at different phases

Using sunspot data for cycles 12 to 23, we have investigated relations of some latitude characteristics of sunspot groups to the 11-year cycle amplitude at different phases. We have revealed a high correlation (with correlation coefficients >0.9) between the middle latitude of sunspot groups at phases of rise, maximum, and decay, on the one hand, and the amplitude of the corresponding cycle, on the other hand. We have shown that the maxima of the velocity of the motion of the sunspot formation zone to the equator have a special physical meaning: the rise phase of the 11-year cycle is characterized by significant correlations between the cycle amplitude and the maximum for the lowest boundary, and the cycle decay phase is characterized by the same maximum for the highest boundary. We have built equations allowing one to determine the amplitude of the 11-year cycle on the basis of data on the given latitudinal characteristics of sunspots groups.     

我国低纬电离层闪烁和周跳的统计特征比较

本文利用位于我国中南部电离层闪烁监测台网2012年至2015年的观测数据,比较分析了GPS（Global Positioning System）信号闪烁与周跳的统计特征以及太阳活动和地磁扰动对闪烁与周跳的影响.结果表明,闪烁活动与周跳出现随地方时、月份、太阳活动和地磁扰动变化的统计特征类似,且周跳出现的可能性随S4指数增高显著增大,说明闪烁与周跳存在密切的关联,是引起周跳的一种重要因素.一天之中,闪烁和周跳主要出现在日落后至黎明前,午夜前出现最频繁,白天仅偶尔出现.在赤道异常峰及其邻近区域,一年之中,闪烁和周跳主要出现在春秋季,春季闪烁活动和周跳出现明显比秋季频繁,呈现春秋不对称性,冬夏季节闪烁和周跳都很少出现.闪烁活动与周跳出现的逐年变化显著依赖太阳活动水平,随太阳活动水平升高而增强,而地磁扰动与闪烁活动与周跳出现呈负相关,地磁扰动对闪烁活动与周跳出现整体上起抑制作用.平均而言,越靠近磁赤道的台站闪烁活动越频繁,随纬度升高,闪烁活动频次逐渐降低,且闪烁活动的开始时间随纬度升高而滞后,暗示引起GPS信号闪烁的电离层不规则结构主要起源于磁赤道区.此外,分析还发现,闪烁活动与周跳出现的空域有相当好的一致性,主要分布在观测点上空仰角55°以下、方位角150°~240°的空域内.     

Simplification of strong ground motion considering inelastic responses of structures

Simplification of strong ground motions to 1 cycle sine waves was investigated from the elastic and inelastic earthquake response analyses and response analyses under sine wave input using single‐degree‐of‐freedom systems. Strong ground motions could be simplified to 1 cycle sine waves if large plastic deformations, with ductility factor more than 2, were assumed. This is because the approximate maximum responses from input sine waves are determined by the initial response cycle, due to period elongation and plastic energy dissipation of the systems. A sine wave whose acceleration amplitude is the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and whose period is that of an equivalent 1 cycle sine wave is proposed. The period of an equivalent sine wave is easily obtained from the elastic response acceleration spectrum of a seismic record. This means that the inelastic responses are approximately determined by the PGA and an equivalent 1 cycle sine wave period. Therefore, an equivalent 1 cycle sine wave period provides a single index to express the frequency characteristics of a strong ground motion. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Astronomically controlled cycles in the lower Tertiary of Gubbio (Italy)

A grouping of marl limestone beds in the Tertiary of Gubbio is interpreted in terms of sedimentary cycles. Two methods of recording are used: subjective mapping of cycle boundaries in the field and power spectral analysis of bed thickness measurements. Both result in cycle thicknesses of between 30 and 70 cm.The cycle record is compared with the known magnetic stratigraphy and this gives an absolute time estimate of 100 kyr for the cycle. It therefore seems likely that the earth's eccentricity period is the ultimate cause of the cycle.     

Long-term variations of solar magnetic fields derived from geomagnetic data

There are limited homogeneous instrumental observations of the sunspot magnetic fields, but the Earth is a sort of a probe reacting to interplanetary disturbances which are manifestation of the solar magnetic fields. We find correlations between some parameters of geomagnetic activity (the geomagnetic activity “floor”—the minimum value under which the geomagnetic activity cannot fall in a sunspot cycle, and the rate of increase of the geomagnetic activity with increasing sunspot number), and sunspot magnetic fields (the sunspot magnetic field in the cycle minimum, and the rate of increase of the sunspot magnetic field from cycle minimum to cycle maximum). Based on these correlations we are able to reconstruct the sunspot magnetic fields in sunspot minima and maxima since sunspot cycle 9 (mid 19th century).     

Climatic variables as indicators of solar activity

Tree-ring analysis is used successfully in studies of solar-terrestrial relations. We consider a linear dependence between the radial increment in conifers in Eastern Siberia and solar activity parameters: the length and amplitude of an 11-year solar cycle in the 20th century. It is shown that the increment in conifers in the region is larger in a longer and lower solar cycle than in a short and high one. A correlation between the increment in the width of annual rings of Pinus sylvestris and Siberian pine and the length of the ascending phase of an 11-year cycle is revealed: the longer the ascending phase, the larger the radial increment in conifers. The dynamics of the annual increment in conifers in the region is inversely related to the cycle amplitude and magnetic disturbances in the main solar cycle.     

干湿循环作用对堆石长期变形影响的试验研究

堆石体存在流变,不仅与荷载有关,而且与日晒雨淋引起的干湿循环有关。通过室内试验模拟日晒雨淋引起的干湿循环作用,研究其对堆石体长期变形的影响。试验结果表明,荷载作用流变很快趋于稳定,测得的流变量也相对较小;偏应力状态干湿循环作用引起的长期变形非常明显,其变形占后期变形总量的50%~70%,且后期变形的衰减远小于荷载单独作用引起的流变,这对于坝体的安全和稳定的影响是不容忽视的。根据试验研究揭示的变形规律,本文建立了相应的计算干湿循环变形的数值模型,可用于有限元计算。     

The variability of foF2 in different phases of solar cycle 23

In this paper we examined the variations of the foF2 with solar activity for different local time and different seasons. Beside this we evaluated International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) models at different phases of solar cycle 23, different latitudes and different local time. We studied F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) of the ionosphere by using the flare index calculated by the Kandilli Observatory. For this purpose, we identified the months similar with high flare activity during the solar cycle 23. We chose 6 months which represented the different phases (ascending branch, maximum and descending branch) of the solar cycle. We also took into account the fact that these months were in different seasons. The hourly monthly means of observed foF2 data from four ionosonde stations for 6 months were calculated. On the other hand, the identical foF2 values of the same months were calculated for the year 1996, which is the minimum year of the previous solar activity cycle. We subtracted the foF2 values of 1996 from the values of the selected months of the last solar cycle to obtain the residuals, Δ(foF2). Then the magnitude of the residuals is compared through the cycle. We used IRI-2007 as well as IRI-2001 models to see the degree of deviation of the observed results from the predicted ones. We found that the predicted values of the ΔfoF2, which are calculated by the IRI-2007, fitted well with the observed Δ(foF2) and showed that the Δ(foF2) are dependent on the solar cycle variations in general.     

Interannual Variability of the Annual Cycle of Temperature over Northern Africa

In this study, the imprints of two major atmospheric variability modes - ENSO and NAO - on the annual cycle of temperature over Northern Africa, a region sensitive to both modes, are investigated. Results from adjusting the annual cycle from daily data on a high resolution grid, indicate that both NAO and ENSO are able to influence significantly the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle and, consequently, that interannual trends found in amplitude and phase can be not exclusively due to greenhouse gases effects.     

Assessing the influence of environmental parameters on the hydrological cycle

Human activity is exerting an increasing influence on the hydrological cycle. In order to avoid adverse impacts and to establish optimum conditions for the water balance, it is necessary to understand the role of environmental parameters in influencing the hydrological cycle. Work is currently in progress in China to study the relationships between environmental parameters and the hydrological cycle to provide a basis for planning future development.     

Prediction of cycle 24 based on information about solar activity during the last 10 000 years

The average and maximal numbers of sunspot groups in the approaching solar cycle (cycle 24) have been predicted using paleoastrophysical information about solar activity during the last more than 10000 years. The linear and nonlinear prediction methods have been applied. It has been indicated that, from the standpoint of solar paleoastrophysics, the next cycle will most probably be average: the number of sunspot groups at a maximum will reach 68–101. The probability that cycle 24 will be powerful (more than 160 sunspot groups), which was predicted by some researchers, is low (not higher than 2%).     

等幅侧向位移循环下柱混凝土纤维应变规律的试验研究

在已完成的包括16个构件的等位移循环加载钢筋混凝土柱的系列试验中，通过在其中3根柱的塑性铰区沿混凝土受力方向安设位移计，较准确测定了混凝土测试标距内的平均应变在一个加载循环内的变化规律及其随周数增长的变化规律；发现了单周最大压应变随周数的增长而持续增大，单周最大名义拉应变随周数增长而持续减小的重要现象；并与柱顶水平力-水平位移滞回规律实测结果相对应，结合截面受力特征对所得单周和多周应变变化规律的成因作了分析。     

Cell cycle behavior of laboratory and field populations of the Florida red tide dinoflagellate, Karenia brevis

As a component of the ECOHAB Florida Regional Field Program, this study addresses cell cycle behavior and its importance to bloom formation of the Florida red tide dinoflagellate, Karenia brevis. The cell cycle of K. brevis was first studied by flow cytometry in laboratory batch cultures, and a laboratory mesocosm column, followed by field populations over the 5-year course of the ECOHAB program. Under all conditions studied, K. brevis displayed diel phased cell division with S-phase beginning a minimum of 6 h after the onset of light and continuing for 12–14 h. Mitosis occurred during the dark, and was generally completed by the start of the next day. The timing of cell cycle phases relative to the diel cycle did not differ substantially in bloom populations displaying radically different growth rates (μ_min 0.17–0.55) under different day lengths and temperature conditions. The rhythm of cell cycle progression is independent from the rhythm controlling vertical migration, as similar cell cycle distributions are found at all depths of the water column in field samples. The implications of these findings are discussed in light of our current understanding of the dinoflagellate cell cycle and the development of improved models for K. brevis bloom growth.     

Hysteresis of foF2 at European middle latitudes

The hysteresis of foF2 is studied for several European stations over the whole 24-hour diurnal interval for the equinoctial months of the years just before and just after the solar cycle minimum for solar cycles 20 and 21. Based on previous results, the hysteresis is expected to develop best just for the equinoctial months and near the solar cycle minimum. The hysteresis is generally found to be negative, i.e. higher foF2 for the rising branch compared to the falling branch of solar cycle. However, this is not the case in some individual months of some years. The noontime hysteresis represents the hysteresis at other times of the day qualitatively (as to sign) but not quantitatively. The hysteresis appears to be relatively persistent from one solar cycle to another solar cycle in spring but not in autumn. A typical value for springtime hysteresis is about 0.5 MHz. The inclusion of hysteresis into long-term ionospheric and radio wave propagation predictions remains questionable.     

太湖蓝藻水样中藻蓝蛋白提取方法比较

以2011年8月20日采集的太湖梅梁湾的夏季蓝藻水华为研究对象,通过12个样点平行样的藻蓝蛋白实验提取,基于光谱吸收特征和浓度值,对反复冻融法、超声波法、溶胀法、丙酮法的提取效果进行比较评价.结果表明:4种方法获取的藻蓝蛋白提取液在620 nm附近出现吸收峰,其中,反复冻融法的峰高最强,超声波法最弱,说明反复冻融法的提取效果优于其他方法;反复冻融法、超声波法、溶胀法获取的部分蓝蛋白提取液在670 nm附近具有次吸收峰,与藻蓝蛋白标样的吸收曲线存在差异;反复冻融法、超声波法提取的藻蓝蛋白浓度值变异系数小于0.6,表明这两种方法较其他方法稳定;反复冻融法提取的藻蓝蛋白浓度值高于其他3种方法,可推荐作为太湖蓝藻水样中藻蓝蛋白的提取方法.     

火山活动的周期性及其在若干气候要素中的反映

根据六百多年全球VEI 5级以上火山活动资料分析和谱分析以及与北半球地面气温、西太平洋高压SLP、北大西洋高压SLP和北大西洋西风漂流区SSTA对比分析得知:(1)全球强火山活动存在显著的88年左右和100年左右世纪尺度周期循环,二者对于VEI(i)原序列方差贡献率达到21.64%.还存在33年左右年代际尺度周期循环以...