Evolution of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Indices, and Their Relationship: 1960?�C?2001

We employ annually averaged solar and geomagnetic activity indices for the period 1960??C?2001 to analyze the relationship between different measures of solar activity as well as the relationship between solar activity and various aspects of geomagnetic activity. In particular, to quantify the solar activity we use the sunspot number R _s, group sunspot number R _g, cumulative sunspot area Cum, solar radio flux F10.7, and interplanetary magnetic field strength IMF. For the geomagnetic activity we employ global indices Ap, Dst and Dcx, as well as the regional geomagnetic index RES, specifically estimated for the European region. In the paper we present the relative evolution of these indices and quantify the correlations between them. Variations have been found in: i) time lag between the solar and geomagnetic indices; ii) relative amplitude of the geomagnetic and solar activity peaks; iii) dual-peak distribution in some of solar and geomagnetic indices. The behavior of geomagnetic indices is correlated the best with IMF variations. Interestingly, among geomagnetic indices, RES shows the highest degree of correlation with solar indices.     

Wavelet Analysis on Solar Wind Parameters and Geomagnetic Indices

The geomagnetic activity is the result of the solar wind–magnetosphere interaction. It varies following the basic 11-year solar cycle; yet shorter time-scale variations appear intermittently. We study the quasi-periodic behavior of the characteristics of solar wind (speed, temperature, pressure, density) and the interplanetary magnetic field (B _x , B _y , B _z , β, Alfvén Mach number) and the variations of the geomagnetic activity indices (D _ST, AE, A _p and K _p). In the analysis of the corresponding 14 time series, which span four solar cycles (1966?–?2010), we use both a wavelet expansion and the Lomb/Scargle periodograms. Our results verify intermittent periodicities in our time-series data, which correspond to already known solar activity variations on timescales shorter than the sunspot cycle; some of these are shared between the solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices.     

Non-radial solar wind flows and IMF Bz during 1973-2003

The characteristics of latitudinal angles of solar wind flow (θ_v) observed near earth have been studied during the period 1973-2003. The average magnitude of θ_v shows distinct enhancements during the declining and maximum phases of the sunspot cycles. A close association of B_z component of IMF in the GSE system and the orientation of meridional flows in the solar wind is found which depends on the IMF sector polarity. This effect has been studied in typical geomagnetic storm periods. The occurrence of non-radial flows is also found to exhibit heliolatitudinal dependence during the years 1975 and 1985 as a characteristic feature of non-radial solar wind expansion from polar coronal holes.     

Solar Rotational Periodicities and the Semiannual Variation in the Solar Wind, Radiation Belt, and Aurora

The behavior of a number of solar wind, radiation belt, auroral and geomagnetic parameters is examined during the recent extended solar minimum and previous solar cycles, covering the period from January 1972 to July 2010. This period includes most of the solar minimum between Cycles 23 and 24, which was more extended than recent solar minima, with historically low values of most of these parameters in 2009. Solar rotational periodicities from 5 to 27 days were found from daily averages over 81 days for the parameters. There were very strong 9-day periodicities in many variables in 2005?–?2008, triggered by recurring corotating high-speed streams (HSS). All rotational amplitudes were relatively large in the descending and early minimum phases of the solar cycle, when HSS are the predominant solar wind structures. There were minima in the amplitudes of all solar rotational periodicities near the end of each solar minimum, as well as at the start of the reversal of the solar magnetic field polarity at solar maximum (～?1980, ～?1990, and ～?2001) when the occurrence frequency of HSS is relatively low. Semiannual equinoctial periodicities, which were relatively strong in the 1995?–?1997 solar minimum, were found to be primarily the result of the changing amplitudes of the 13.5- and 27-day periodicities, where 13.5-day amplitudes were better correlated with heliospheric daily observations and 27-day amplitudes correlated better with Earth-based daily observations. The equinoctial rotational amplitudes of the Earth-based parameters were probably enhanced by a combination of the Russell-McPherron effect and a reduction in the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling efficiency during solstices. The rotational amplitudes were cross-correlated with each other, where the 27-day amplitudes showed some of the weakest cross-correlations. The rotational amplitudes of the >?2 MeV radiation belt electron number fluxes were progressively weaker from 27- to 5-day periods, showing that processes in the magnetosphere act as a low-pass filter between the solar wind and the radiation belt. The A _p/K _p magnetic currents observed at subauroral latitudes are sensitive to proton auroral precipitation, especially for 9-day and shorter periods, while the A _p/K _p currents are governed by electron auroral precipitation for 13.5- and 27-day periodicities.     

Relationship between interplanetary field/plasma parameters with geomagnetic indices and their behavior during intense geomagnetic storms

This paper presents a correlative study between the peak values of geomagnetic activity indices (Dst, Kp, ap and AE) and the peak values of various interplanetary field (Bt, Bz, E and σ_B) and plasma (T, D, V, P and β) parameters along with their various products (BV, BzV and B²V) during intense geomagnetic storms (GMSs) for rising, maximum and decay phases as well as for complete solar cycle 23. The study leads to the conclusion that the peak values of different geomagnetic activity indices are in good correlation with Bt, Bz, σ_B, V, E, BV, BzV and B²V, therefore these parameters are most useful for predicting GMSs and substorms. These parameters are also reliable indicators of the strength of GMSs. We have also presented the lag/lead time analysis between the maximum of Dst and peak values of geomagnetic activity indices, various interplanetary field/plasma parameters for all GMSs. We have found that the average of peak values of geomagnetic activity indices and various field/plasma parameters are larger in decay phase compare to rising and maximum phases of cycle 23. Our analyses show that average values of lag/lead time lie in the ≈?4.00 h interval for Kp, ap and AE indices as well as for Bt, Bz, σ_B, E, D and P. For a more meaningful analysis we have also presented the above study for two different groups G1 (CME-driven GMSs) and G2 (CIR-driven GMSs) separately. Correlation coefficients between various interplanetary field/plasma parameters, their various products and geomagnetic activity indices for G1 and G2 groups show different nature. Three GMSs and associated solar sources observed during three different phases of this solar cycle have also been studied and it is found that GMSs are associated with large flares, halo CMEs and their active regions are close to the solar equator.     

Short-term critical frequency variations and their predictions in the midlatitude ionospheric F2 region

Short-term variations δf₀F₂ in the values of the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 region in middle latitudes due to solar and geomagnetic activities have been investigated. Diurnal and seasonal features of the energy flow from the auroral into midlatitude ionosphere are revealed. It is shown that they could be taken into account if instead of the 3-hour geomagnetic indices or their daily averages a new index is employed which characterizes the average level of geomagnetic activity over intervals of time no less than nine hours usually during the evening and night hours. A technique for short-term predicting δf₀F₂ in the midlatitude ionosphere is developed which employs the indices of solar and geomagnetic activities, and errors in the predictions are estimated.     

Solar activity dependence of trans-equatorial ion whistler

This paper describes occurrence probabilities and patterns of trans-equatorial proton (TEP), deuteron (TED) and helium (TEH) whistler from the ISIS-2 satellite in time compressed dynamic spectra. It is shown that the TEP whistlers have high occurrence probability in an active solar period, while the TED whistler has low occurrence probability. In a quiet solar period, the TEP whistler has a relatively lower occurrence probability than the TED whistler. The TEP whistler in a quiet solar period shows a strong seasonal variation. That is a higher occurrence probability in the winter than in the summer in the Northern Hemisphere. The curve of occurrence probability of the TED whistler has a valley (no occurrence) at the noon in a solar active period. The minimum occurrence probabilities, which depend on geomagnetic activity appear at about K_P = 4-5. These phenomena seem to be explained by using the bouncing surface diagram of multicomponent and inhomogeneous plasmas with various proton density. The spectral pattern of trans-equatorial ion whistlers and calculation of an approximate equation with regard to deuteron effect show that relative proton densities to electrons N_P/N_e decrease with increasing solar activity.     

Dependence of inferred magnetic sector structure upon geomagnetic and solar activity

Inferred solar sector polarity given by the AC index of Svalgaard, has been intensively studied as a single time series and as a time series correlated with geomagnetic and solar activity. Power auto-spectra of the AC index yield a highly significant harmonic series with fundamental at 27 days period and possessing clear harmonics up to the sixth; and a very prominent peak at a period of 1 yr. The 27 day harmonic series clearly indicates the solar control of the index while the 1-yr period might be taken as confirmation of the work of Rosenberg and Coleman to the effect that the sector pattern observed on Earth depends upon Earth's heliographic latitude which has a 1-yr period.Cross correlation analysis and superposed epoch analysis are used to show that sectors inferred to be positive or away are associated with low geomagnetic and solar activity whereas sectors inferred to be negative or toward exhibit significantly enhanced geomagnetic and solar activity.These results appear to be in conflict with superposed epoch analyses by Wilcox and Ness using satellite observed sector polarities which showed that geomagnetic activity increased after passage of a sector boundary, independent of the nature, whether + ? or ? + of the boundary.The conflict is resolved here by noting that the yearly correlation coefficient, at zero time lag, between inferred sector structure and geomagnetic activity averaged about 0·5 for the year 1927–1958, dropped to low values by 1960, recovered by 1962 and then dropped sharply in 1963 by an order to magnitude; the correlation has remained essentially zero ever since. Thus, the satellite results, all obtained post 1963, would not show increased activity during either sector sign.The results cast doubt upon the accuracy of the early ‘inferred’ sector polarities because it is felt that the only simple explanation for the strange behavior of the correlation coefficient lies in some artifact of the data.     

Allowance for the geometry of solar wind interaction with the Earth’s magnetic field in geoeffective parameters and in the prediction of geomagnetic activity

We suggest geoeffective independent parameters that can be calculated on the basis of conventional measurements of the solar wind, which allows them to be used to forecast space weather. We present the results of our analysis of the ground variations in planetary geomagnetic activity (K _p ) and geoeffective parameters calculated on the basis of solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field measurements in the Earth’s orbit for the period 1964–1996 by taking into account the change in the orientation of the geomagnetic moment during the Earth’s diurnal and annual motions.     

Short time periodicities of the atmospheric activity of Jupiter

Short time periodicities of 3, 6, and 12 months have been found by analysis of the coefficient of atmospheric activity of Jupiter for the time period 1963–1967.These periodicities have been attributed to seasonal variations of the Jovian atmosphere, and could be related to similar periodicities observed in solar flares and in the high velocity solar wind streamers.     

Power-spectrum analysis of local geomagnetic disturbances and their relationship to cosmic-ray and aurora intensity

Power-spectrum analyses have been carried out on two data sets of the geomagnetic K-index from the Athens and Sofia magnetic Observatories. For the period between 1956–1984, periodicities of about 2.8 and 6 months have been obtained. Similar results were found by the auto-correlation technique. Both periods are significant to 0.05 and 0.01 level, respectively. In our attempt to explain transient geomagnetic disturbances caused by other parameters, the K-index was correlated to cosmic-ray and aurora intensity. The best correlation coefficient between K-variations and cosmic-ray data from Athens Neutron-Monitor Station was 0.58 and between K-index and Auroral, activity index was 0.47.An attempt to interpret these periodicities and relationships has been made.     

Investigation of heliogeoactivity impact on the dynamics of orbital parameters of Earth’s artificial satellites. I

The influence of active processes on the Sun and their response on the dynamics of Earth’s artificial satellites has been investigated. The relationship between the characteristics of solar activity and variations of the periods P of the orbital motion of Earth’s artificial satellites has been found. These variations mainly indicate the variations in the Earth’s atmosphere density caused by solar activity (index F_10.7) and geomagnetic activity (ΣK_p index). High values of the correlation coefficients between P and ^F_10.7 (–0.77…–0.91) and between P and ΣK_p (–0.67…–0.89) exhibit significant effect of solar and geomagnetic activity on the orbital periods of satellites.     

Seasonal variation in the atmospheric activity of Jupiter

Periodicities of 22, 8 and 6 years have been found by a statistical analysis of the coefficient of atmospheric activity R of Jupiter for the time period 1910–1985.We have also found variations of the coefficient of asymmetry of the activity Z measured by the Observatory of Athens for the time period 1956–1985 with periodicities of 12, 8, 6 and 4 years by statistical analysis.The same periodicities have been recently found in an analysis of the total number of solar flares and in the number of high velocity solar wind streamers.     

Ionospheric Day-to-Day Variability Around the Whole Heliosphere Interval in 2008

Ionospheric F2 peak electron densities (NmF2) measured at ten ionosonde stations have been analyzed to investigate ionospheric day-to-day variability around the Whole Heliosphere Interval (WHI) in 2008 (Day of Year (DOY) 50?–?140). The ionosonde data showed that there was significant global day-to-day variability in NmF2. This variability had 5-, 7-, 9-, 11-, 13.5-, and 16?–?21-day periodicities. At middle latitudes, the ionosphere appeared to respond directly to the solar-wind and interplanetary-magnetic-field (IMF) induced geomagnetic-activity forcing, with the day-to-day variability having the same periods as those in the solar-wind/IMF and geomagnetic activity. At the geomagnetic Equator, the ionosphere had a strong 7-day periodicity, corresponding to the same periodicity in the IMF B _z component. In the equatorial anomaly region, the ionosphere showed more complicated day-to-day variability, dominated by the 9-day periodicity. In addition, there were also periodicities of 11 days and 16?–?21 days in the ionosonde data at some stations. The ionosonde data were compared with the Coupled Magnetosphere Ionosphere Thermosphere (CMIT) simulations that were driven by the observed solar-wind and IMF data during the WHI. The CMIT simulations showed similar ionospheric daily variability seen in the data. They captured the positive and negative responses of the ionosphere at middle latitudes during the first corotating interaction region (CIR) event in the WHI. The response of the model to the second CIR event, however, was relatively weak.     

Intermediate-Term Periodicities in Soft X-ray Flare Index During Solar Cycles 21, 22 and 23

We have analyzed the intermediate-term periodicities in soft X-ray flare index (FI_SXR) during solar cycles 21, 22 and 23. Power-spectral analysis of daily FI_SXR reveals a significant period of 161 days in cycle 21 which is absent during cycles 22 and 23. We have found that in cycle 22 periodicities of 74 and 83 days are in operation. A 123-day periodicity has been found to be statistically significant during part of the current solar cycle 23. The existence of these periodicities has been discussed in the light of earlier results.     

Effect of Interplanetary Turbulences Causing High/low Amplitude Anisotropic Wave Trains in Cr Intensity

The high/low-amplitude anisotropic wave train events (HAE/LAE) in CR intensity have been investigated during the period 1981–1990, using the neutron monitoring data for different latitudes. In all, 21 HAE and 15 LAE cases have been studied. It has been observed that the phase of the diurnal anisotropy remains in the same co-rotational direction for the majority of the HAE/LAE cases. However, it has also been observed that the phase of the diurnal anisotropy changes to later hours in some of the HAE cases, whereas it changes to early hours in some of the LAE cases. Further, the amplitude of the semi-diurnal anisotropy for HAE/LAE cases remains statistically the same; however, the phase of the semi-diurnal anisotropy for HAE has been found to shift to later hours for all events. Furthermore, the HAE occur dominantly during the declining phase of solar activity, whereas LAE occur dominantly during the minimum solar activity period. The geomagnetic activity index-A_p has been observed to remain low during the period of each HAE/LAE. The possible phenomenon to cause the enhanced/low-amplitude daily variation has been proposed to appear on the back side of the Sun.     

The representation of the semi-annual variation of the geomagnetic activity by an annual sine wave

The seasonal variation of the geomagnetic activity shows two sharp maxima (in March and September) and two broader minima (in June and December). It can only poorly be described by a double sine wave. The double phase wave of geomagnetic activity can be transformed - by vertical mirroring of the half year part between the maxima - into a single phase wave, which is represented well by a single sine function. This function is determined here for C _i (the daily international character figure of geomagnetic activity) and for A _p (the equivalent daily amplitude, based on K _p, the geomagnetic planetary three-hour-range indices), for both in their ratios to the mean value over the year and then averaged over many years. To remove part of the irregularities the daily values of C _i and A _p were corrected for solar activity and reduced to quiet Sun circumstances. Mirroring back to the double phase function the geomagnetic variation is then represented by $$Ci({\text{or }}Ap) = Cm({\text{or }}Ap,m) - |A{\text{ sin}}(\lambda - \varphi )|$$ , in which m means the mirror value, A is the amplitude of the single sine curve, λ runs parallel to the Sun's longitude, ? is the phase constant and the bars indicate the absolute value. The data of the first maximum of the seasonal variation was found to vary between March 18 and 28 for different groups of years. The sharpness of the maxima may point out a resonance in the interaction between the solar wind and the magnetosphere. In the appendix the relation \(Ci = aR^{{1 \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {1 2}} \right. \kern-0em} 2}} + b\) (R being the relative sunspot number) is brought forward. The values of the parameter b through the eleven-year period reveal an increasing influence of sunspot-free regions towards the minimum.     

Mid-term quasi-periodicities in geomagnetic activity during the last 15 solar cycles: Connection to solar dynamo strength – To the memory of Karolen I. Paularena (1957-2001)

Several recent studies have reported quasi-periodicities with a period between 1 and 2 years (to be called here `mid-term quasi-periodicities') in various heliospheric parameters, like solar wind speed, interplanetary magnetic field, cosmic rays, and geomagnetic activity. Here we study their long-term occurrence in geomagnetic activity using an extended aa index which covers the last 15 solar cycles. We confirm their intermittent occurrence and the alternation of their dominant period between a slightly shorter period of about 1.2–1.4 years and a slightly longer period of about 1.5–1.7 years. We find that the mid-term quasi-periodicities were strong during two intervals of high solar activity: in the mid-19th century and since 1930. Instead, contrary to earlier studies, we find that they were consistently weak during low solar activity from 1860s to 1920s. This implies a long-term connection between the amplitude of mid-term quasi-periodicities and the solar dynamo strength. Since the rotation speed at the bottom of the solar convection layer (tachocline) has recently been found to vary at a mid-term periodicity, this suggests that the stronger the solar dynamo is, the more variable the rotation rate of the tachocline is. We also note that the disappearance of mid-term periodicities may be used as a precursor for long intervals of very weak solar activity, like great minima.     

Geomagnetic activity and Hale sector boundaries

The variation of the geomagnetic activity index A_p at the IMF sector boundaries (+ to ? and ? to +) has been studied for three solar cycles, separating data into vernal and autumnal equinoxes. It was found that a reported increase in A_p as an effect of a Hale boundary can be better attributed to the occurrence of a negative IMF B_z component in the geocentric solar magnetospheric coordinate system and to the occurrence of high speed solar wind streams.     

A study of geomagnetic storms at Beijing in terms of solar wind

With the aid of the Akasofu's energy coupling function between the solar wind and the magnetosphere, we have made in this paper an analysis of about 20 geomagnetic storms recorded at Beijing during the period of years 1966 to 1972. There is a close correlation between the energy coupling function ? and the geomagnetic indices a_p and K_p. All in all an empirical formula as ? ～ 1?2 × 10¹⁷a_p has been found for the geomagnetic storms occurred in a low latitude station, i.e. Beijing of China. Comparisons of the horizontal component H_max (in γ) and ?(10¹⁸ erg s^?1) in Table 1 indicate that the development of storm main phase at Beijing depends very much on the ? values thus involved. Also, these are well illustrated for several individual storms as mentioned in the second section of the paper. In concluding this paper some brief discussions are made and included. It is hoped that geomagnetic observations in the middle and low latitudes from our vast country should make further contributions to the study of solar wind-magnetosphere coupling, including the Akasofu's energy coupling function.