Quantitative effects of changes in agricultural irrigation on potential evaporation

Evaporation is a key element to the basin's water cycle. Agricultural irrigation has resulted in a significant variation of regional potential evaporation (E_pen). The spatiotemporal variation of E_pen and influencing factors in natural, agricultural, and desert areas in different developmental stages of irrigation in Heihe River Basin (HRB) from 1970 to 2017 were comparatively analysed in this study. This work focused on the correction effect of irrigation on the variation of E_pen. Agricultural water consumption in HRB significantly varied around 1998 due to agricultural development and water policy. Under the influence of irrigation, annual variations of E_pen in agricultural, natural, and desert areas were significantly different. From 1970 to 1998, the annual trend slope of E_pen in natural area only reduced by 1 mm decade⁻¹, while that in agricultural area significantly decreased by 39 mm decade⁻¹. After the implementation of water-saving irrigation, E_pen in natural and agricultural areas increased by 11 and 54 mm decade⁻¹, respectively, from 1998 to 2017. In contrast with natural and agricultural areas, E_pen in desert area decreased by 80 mm decade⁻¹ from 1970 to 1998 and continuously decreased by 41 mm decade⁻¹ from 1998 to 2017. However, the regulatory effect of irrigation on E_pen in desert area started to manifest due to the expansion of cultivated land area from 2010 to 2017. Irrigation had a significant regulatory effect on the variation of E_pen in HRB. The regulatory effect was mainly reflected on the aerodynamic term (E_aero). Results indicated that the main meteorological factors influencing E_pen in each region were wind speed, which is 2 m above the surface (U₂), and water vapour deficit (VPD).     

气象三要素观测数据的共享

地震仪器不同程度地受气象因素干扰,为此地震台站往往根据不同的前兆仪器,安装相应的气象观测仪。以GPS观测仪器配套的PTR-Ⅲ气象仪为例,分析该仪器共享"十五"观测网络的WYY-1型气象三要素观测仪数据的方法,编写程序实现了自动下载WYY-1气象仪数据,并转换为PTR-Ⅲ气象仪格式,从而减少台站辅助观测仪器的数量,减轻了仪器维护的负担。     

成都台重力观测数据变化分析

本文通过对成都台重力仪器数据去掉固体潮汐理论值、去掉气温、气压、地下水的干扰因素来讨论重力观测曲线的变化。分析导致重力观测年变异常的因素。     

破坏性地震短期临震预测的一个有效方法--关于短期临震气象要素五项指标异常

为探索Ms≥5．0级破坏性地震的短期临震预测问题,作者从1973年起潜心研究此问题,并于1975年5月正式提出：在震前一个月之内,将会出现日平均气压、日平均气温、日最高气温,日最低气温和日降水量五项指标的异常,这是从气象要素上表现出来的短期前兆异常,这是孕震过程中的短期临震气象效应表现。在唐山7．8级大地震发生前的关键时刻,1976年7月中旬和下旬初,作者依据旱震关系和短期气象要素五项指标异常,积极推动并参与了北京市地震队七大异常的震情告急活动。事实表明：在唐山Ms7．8级地震短期临震告急和宁河Ms6．9级地震短期临震预报上,气象要素五指标异常,经受住了短期临震预报实践的检验。     

Characterization of Risks in Coastal Zones: A Review

Interest in sustainable development for the natural, socio‐economic, and cultural resources of coastal zones is growing worldwide. On the other hand, the range of threats to coastal zones increasingly posed by hydro‐meteorological natural phenomena has led to a trend in the analysis and assessment of risks to these areas. The available literature dealing with coastal risk assessment is quite wide, focusing mainly on the risk evaluation of coastal flooding and erosion resulting directly from the occurrence of extreme natural events. The risk assessment methodologies are usually specific to the conditions and available data of each country, society or location, though most have evolved to assess the risk concept more precisely and rigorously. However, there are still very few studies that present feasible and effective methodologies, which lead to the effective integration of risk analysis at all levels. In Mexico coastal risk analysis has barely begun despite our extensive coastline, which is highly vulnerable to the threat of tropical cyclones. This paper aims to give a broad view of the risk assessment methodologies which already exist, in order to provide a starting point for future efforts in Mexico and elsewhere.     

气象三要素校准表计算及生成软件

气象三要素仪作为辅助观测仪器,需要对其传感器进行现场校准。基于VB平台,开发气象三要素校准表计算及生成软件,具有自动计算并生成气象三要素校准表的功能,可为气象三要素现场校测节省时间,提高效率和准确率,值得推广。     

夏县地震台热水井溶解水氡干扰因素分析

通过对夏县地震台水氡观测数据分析,找出可能存在的干扰因素与水氡观测数据之间的变化规律。分析结果表明,地下水开采是影响夏县地震台水氡观测的主要因素,气温、气压对热水井溶解水氡测值几乎没有影响。     

土壤气氡测量影响因素的初步研究

通过分析实验资料和断层气氡测量中所遇到的问题，较全面地讨论了断层气氡测量中地因素和明因素的影响。分析了断层气氡形态与断层性质的关系，以及岩土性质，土壤含水量和气温，地温，气压对土氡测量的影响。指出只要充分认识并注意避开或消除上术因素的影响就可以得到较满意的气氡测量结果。     

1976年唐山7.8级地震前气象要素的异常变化

系统研究了唐山地震前气象要素的异常变化。地震前约一个月时间，震中及附近地区月平均气压变化幅度最大，月平均气压距平中心区域与震中区吻合，沿区域构造带方向出现气压变化最大梯度区，临震前几天气民较大幅度的升、降变化过程，升压脊 区域构造瞳向吻合。地震前一年，丰润、唐山一带年平均气温距平值最大，地震前一天，气温２４小时变温的升温中心在唐山，升温脊受区域构造带控制。０．８ｍ地温亦有明显的升温异常变化。１９７     

A comparative study of extensive machine learning models for predicting long-term monthly rainfall with an ensemble of climatic and meteorological predictors

Rainfall prediction is of vital importance in water resources management. Accurate long-term rainfall prediction remains an open and challenging problem. Machine learning techniques, as an increasingly popular approach, provide an attractive alternative to traditional methods. The main objective of this study was to improve the prediction accuracy of machine learning-based methods for monthly rainfall, and to improve the understanding of the role of large-scale climatic variables and local meteorological variables in rainfall prediction. One regression model autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and five state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, including artificial neural networks, support vector machine, random forest (RF), gradient boosting regression, and dual-stage attention-based recurrent neural network, were implemented for monthly rainfall prediction over 25 stations in the East China region. The results showed that the ML models outperformed ARIMA model, and RF relatively outperformed other models. Local meteorological variables, humidity, and sunshine duration, were the most important predictors in improving prediction accuracy. 4-month lagged Western North Pacific Monsoon had higher importance than other large-scale climatic variables. The overall output of rainfall prediction was scalable and could be readily generalized to other regions.     

Distribution and Potential Sources of Surface Aerosol Particles in the Yangtze River Delta Region,China

Based on meteorological and pollution data from January 2017 to December 2019, in this paper the long-term distribution of surface aerosol particles, and the interaction between aerosol pollution and meteorological factors in four cities of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region is investigated. The long-term observation shows the law of typical aerosol pollution characteristics. Meteorological factors are significantly different during aerosol-polluted and nonpolluted days. The effect of each meteorological factor on aerosol pollution may vary by different seasons and cities. The changes in meteorological factors are not completely consistent during aerosol fine-mode and coarse-mode polluted days. To distinguish the possible sources of surface aerosol particles, the potential source contribution function and concentration-weighted trajectory models are applied to study transport sources. Based on the detailed analyses, this study will provide a reliable basis for further pollution control in the YRD.     

Dependence of evaporation on meteorological variables at different time-scales and intercomparison of estimation methods

This paper consists of two parts. In the first part, the significance of five major factors, including solar radiation, vapour pressure deficit, relative humidity, wind speed and air temperature, that control evaporation were evaluated comparatively at different time-scales using the data from Changines station in Switzerland. The comparative evaluation was made at hourly, daily, 10-day and monthly time-scales. It was found that the role of controlling variables in evaporation varied with the time-scale. The vapour pressure deficit was best correlated with pan evaporation at all time-scales, while the wind speed was least correlated with pan evaporation, especially when the time period was longer than a day. In the second part, four equations for calculating evaporation, including temperature-based methods, humidity-based methods, mass transfer methods and radiation-based methods, were compared with pan evaporation. Of these four equations, the Penman equation, representing the mass transfer method, resulted in monthly evaporation values that agreed most closely with pan evaporation values. The Romanenko equation, representing the humidity method, also compared reasonably well with pan evaporation. The Turc equation, representing the radiation method, and the Thornthwaite equation, representing the temperature method, were found to underestimate evaporation significantly, especially for cold months. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of glacier- and snowmelt-driven streamflow in the arid middle Tianshan Mountains of China

Due to limitations in transport and communication infrastructures and difficulties in accessing glaciers, it is challenging to monitor snow and glaciers. In this study, the enhanced Utah Energy Balance (UEB) with a glacier melt model and snow above and below the forest ablation algorithm is used to assess the contributions of snow and glacier melting in three typical inland river basins (MRB, URB and KRB) in the middle Tianshan Mountains of China from 2002 to 2014. Forced by the spatial downscaling of the China meteorological forcing dataset (CMFD) coupled with other parameters, the model simulates the total surface water balance using surface water input from snowmelt, glacial melt and rainfall. Model simulations reveal that although the MRB, URB and KRB are all located on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, there are obvious differences in their water resource composition characteristics. Different from the URB, which is mainly replenished by glacial melt and had an average annual percentage of glacial melt of approximately 39% of the total surface water from 2009 to 2014, the MRB and KRB are mainly supplied by snowmelt and rainfall and both had an average annual percentage of snowmelt of approximately 37%. Although snowmelt is an important source of water to inland rivers, especially during the snowmelt season, the contributions of snowmelt in these three basins are very small especially for the URB, which had a contribution of 17%. This study effectively verifies the applicability of the CMFD and provides important scientific and technological support for determining the spatiotemporal variations in snow and glacial melt in the middle Tianshan Mountains, where meteorological observation data are scarce and some observational data, such as radiation data, are incomplete.     

用C++结合MATLAB读取NOAA气象数据

利用C++与MATLAB相结合,对NOAA网站上公开可下载的数据进行与地震监测相关的气象三要素数据提取;我国境内共有1076个台站的数据可用,数据可追溯到20世纪50年代。通过本次编写的数据提取软件,可对文件中气温、气压、降雨(采样率3小时/次)进行自动提取,并对错误数据进行自动识别;为地震前兆观测中气象干扰的剔除提供了丰富的源数据。     

本世纪云南强震（Ms≥6.0）的气象特征研究

本以丰富的气象资料分析讨论了本世纪以来云南发生Ｍｓ≥６．０级地震的气象特征与气象效应。认为云南强震与北半球、中国及云南的气候变化、太阳活动、旱涝有关，与西北太平洋副热带高压、气压、气温的变化也有一定联系。     

电离层闪烁对静止气象卫星通信影响的初步分析

利用广州站监测到的GPS卫星和FY-2D静止气象卫星电离层闪烁数据,统计分析了广州地区电离层闪烁特征,并与静止卫星信号测距异常现象进行了相关性分析,初步探讨了电离层闪烁对静止卫星通信质量的影响.结果表明:广州地区电离层闪烁具有较强的季节依赖性,主要发生在春秋季节,约占全年90％左右,大多集中在夜间20:00-01:00LT,且持续时间长,空间分布广;电离层闪烁事件与测距异常现象具有较好的相关性,在发生时间和平均时间上,相关系数分别为0.9876和0.9966,在空间分布上,FY-2D和FY-2E的穿刺点经度不同,结合引起电离层闪烁的不规则体的漂移理论,理论计算由D星漂移到E星的时间与实际两星发生测距异常的时间差相符,进一步说明了电离层闪烁是引起FY-2D静止卫星测距异常,从而影响静止卫星星地通信质量的一个重要原因,并且受影响的程度随着闪烁强度的增强而增加.     

贵州蒸发皿蒸发量变化趋势及影响因素分析

以贵州境内18个气象站1961-2001年逐日气象观测数据为基础,采用Mann-Kendal非参数检验方法、相关分析和主成分分析方法对贵州近41年来蒸发皿蒸发量及其主要影响因子(太阳净辐射、气温、相对湿度和风速等)进行了相关性及趋势性分析.结果表明:近41年来,贵州年平均蒸发皿蒸发量呈显著下降趋势,通过99%的置信度检验,蒸发量的下降主要表现在冬、春、夏三季.从区域分布来看,蒸发皿蒸发量整体上东部及西北部分地区显著减少,其他地区趋势变化不明显.蒸发皿蒸发量下降的主要原因是太阳净辐射的显著下降.     

Homogeneity analysis of Turkish meteorological data set

The missing value interpolation and homogeneity analysis were performed on the meteorological data of Turkey. The data set has the observations of six variables: the maximum air temperature, the minimum air temperature, the mean air temperature, the total precipitation, the relative humidity and the local pressure of 232 stations for the period 1974–2002. The missing values on the monthly data set were estimated using two methods: the linear regression (LR) and the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. Because of higher correlations between test and reference series, EM algorithm results were preferred. The homogeneity analysis was performed on the annual data using a relative test and four absolute homogeneity tests were used for the stations where non‐testable series were found due to the low correlation coefficients between the test and the reference series. A comparison was accomplished by the graphics where relative and absolute tests provided different outcomes. Absolute tests failed to detect the inhomogeneities in the precipitation series at the significance level 1%. Interestingly, most of the inhomogeneities detected on the temperature variables existed in the Aegean region of Turkey. It is considered that theseinhomogeneities were mostly caused by non‐natural effects such as relocation. Because of changes at topography at short distance in this region intensify non‐random characteristics of the temperature series when relocation occurs even in small distances. The marine effect, which causes artifical cooling effect due to sea breezes has important impact on temperature series and the orograhpy allows this impact go through the inner parts in this region. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis as weather input data for watershed models

Obtaining representative meteorological data for watershed‐scale hydrological modelling can be difficult and time consuming. Land‐based weather stations do not always adequately represent the weather occurring over a watershed, because they can be far from the watershed of interest and can have gaps in their data series, or recent data are not available. This study presents a method for using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) global meteorological dataset to obtain historical weather data and demonstrates the application to modelling five watersheds representing different hydroclimate regimes. CFSR data are available globally for each hour since 1979 at a 38‐km resolution. Results show that utilizing the CFSR precipitation and temperature data to force a watershed model provides stream discharge simulations that are as good as or better than models forced using traditional weather gauging stations, especially when stations are more than 10 km from the watershed. These results further demonstrate that adding CFSR data to the suite of watershed modelling tools provides new opportunities for meeting the challenges of modelling un‐gauged watersheds and advancing real‐time hydrological modelling. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial mapping of drought in Zambia using regional frequency analysis

Regional frequency analysis based on L-moments was applied to assess the spatial extent of meteorological droughts in tandem with their return periods in Zambia. Weather station monthly rainfall data were screened to form homogeneous sub-regions-, validated by a homogeneity criterion and fitted by a generalized extreme value distribution using goodness-of-fit test statistics. Predictor equations at regional scale for L-moment ratios and mean annual precipitation were developed to generate spatial maps of meteorological drought recurrences. The 80% of normal rainfall level and two thresholds of 60% and 70% were synonymous with moderate and severe droughts, respectively. Droughts were more severe in the south than in the north of Zambia. The return periods for severe and moderate droughts showed an overlapping pattern in their occurrence at many locations, indicating that in certain years droughts can affect the entire country. The extreme south of Zambia is the most prone to drought.