城市决策管理者对适应气候变化规划的认知研究——以上海市为例

本文以上海市为例,采用社会调查和参与式评估等方法,了解地方决策管理者对于气候变化风险的认识,以及对开展适应气候变化规划的必要性及其内容、功能和优先工作等方面的看法和建议,从中梳理出一些可供其他城市决策者参考的政策建议。本研究旨在提高国内学术界对于城市适应规划研究的关注,并为各级决策管理者制定适应气候变化政策和行动提供参考。     

缓解气候变化建设生态城市

为缓解气候变化以及目前全球性的环境危机,促进可持续发展,人类对城市的发展与建设模式进行了重新思考、审视与选择。从全球气候变化的现实,结合贵阳市生态城市的建设,阐述了建设生态城市,走可持续发展道路的必要性。     

百色气候变化特征及城市适应策略建议

利用气候观测数据分析表明,近60a来,百色出现了与全球气候变化背景一致的增暖变化,主要变化特征有:气温明显升高,年降水日数减少,冬季降水量增多,年日照时数减少;高温和干旱频率高,20世纪90年代以来暴雨日数偏多。与广西平均气候变化状况相比,百色的气候变化程度风险低于广西平均水平。预估到本世纪中期,百色气温仍将缓慢升高,干旱和强降水的强度可能加剧。建议科学规划,统筹协调,科学评估城市气候承载力,开展城市适应气候变化风险管理,提升生态气候环境监测及自然灾害预警应急能力,建设生态气候宜居城市。     

气候变化适应行动实施框架

气候变化适应对脆弱地区和贫困群体更为重要。尽管我国急需采取适应行动,但由于缺乏可操作性的模式和评估方法,目前实际的适应行动还略显滞后。本文建立了一个适应行动实施框架,主要包含六个核心步骤,从气候风险、适应目标、适应措施、技术优化、实施示范到监测评估,基本涵盖了适应行动的关键内容。框架的构建具有一定的通用性和借鉴性,可以帮助适应实施者开发综合和战略性的适应措施。适应行动框架是一个开放和可更新的体系,可根据实践过程中新的认识,对适应行动做一定的再设计和调整,实施过程中还可提炼适应的基本信息和确定适应的优化技术。     

北京市能源系统气候变化脆弱性分析与适应建议

1951-2014年,北京市年平均气温以0.37℃/10a的速度上升,且热岛效应强度和范围增大。随着北京城市化发展,气候变化给北京市能源系统带来的额外压力也趋于显著。本研究着重分析了气候变化条件下能源系统的脆弱性。研究结果表明,气候变化下北京市能源系统的脆弱性主要表现在高温天气条件下,电力需求负荷超过电力供应系统设计最大负荷;低温条件下,天然气供应短缺;极端天气给能源生产、能源供应和能源运输造成威胁。针对北京市能源系统的脆弱性,借鉴国际经验,提出了北京市能源系统提升气候变化适应能力的短期战略和长期战略,并分别从政策、技术和管理方面提出了短期战略的适应建议。     

青藏高原东北缘山地农户对气候变化的感知及适应策略——以湟水中游为例

以青藏高原东北缘山地地区不同海拔高度地理单元村落的农户为调查对象,进行气候变化、气象灾害的感知及适应策略等调查,采用感知强度公式及专家打分法分析农户气候变化感知以及所采用的适应策略,结果显示：1961—2013年湟水中游气候变化整体趋于暖干化,有84%的农户认为气候变暖,并对其生活造成了严重的影响;在不同海拔高度上的地理单元,农户对气象灾害的感知有明显差异,川水地区农户对沙尘的感知最强,浅山地区农户对虫害的感知最强,而脑山地区农户对连阴雨的感知最强;不同海拔高度的农户对适应策略的选择不同,川水地区农户主要采取“生产性+生活性+保障性”组合适应策略;浅山地区农户主要采取“生产性+生活性”组合适应策略;而脑山地区的农户则主要采取单一的“生产性”适应策略来应对气候变化所带来的影响。     

山区居民对气候变化及其影响与适应的感知分析——以玉龙雪山地区为例

通过问卷调查和访谈,揭示了青藏高原东南缘玉龙雪山地区居民对当地气候变化及其影响与适应的感知认识。结果表明：居民对玉龙雪山地区气候变化的感知强度与科学研究结果总体上具有很高的一致性。居民对气候变化对农业环境影响的感知不很强烈,认为气候变化并未影响到农作物长势和产量,但对气候变化导致农作物病虫害略有增加和作物生长期延长的感知却持较高赞同度。居民对气候变化及其适应的感知强度总体上与海拔高度相关显著,而对气候变化及其影响的感知则与年龄显著相关。气候变化已促使山区居民调整产业结构,发展低耗水农业经济,并积极参与山区旅游、外出打工,以弥补微薄的农业收入。同时,居民也期望政府能够给予他们一定的经济补偿,以弥补由于干旱和倒春寒等带来的经济损失。     

青藏铁路适应气候变化的筑路工程技术

 气候变化对高温高含冰量冻土影响显著，因此，青藏铁路穿越多年冻土地区的筑路工程设计必须考虑未来气候变化的影响。为了减缓、适应气候变化的影响，解决高温高含冰量路基稳定性问题，修建青藏铁路时提出了冷却路基、降低多年冻土温度的设计新思想。该筑路工程技术通过采用调控热的传导、辐射和对流以及综合调控措施达到降低多年冻土温度、适应气候变化的目的，最大限度地确保多年冻土区路基的稳定性。     

气候变化与城市全要素生产率：理论与实证

利用1994—2014年中国城市数据探讨气候变化对城市全要素生产率（TFP）的影响。研究发现：气候变化（气温变化和降水量变化）对城市TFP均有负面影响,其中降水量的影响更显著,但对中国东部地区城市的TFP影响不明显;经济发展水平越高的城市,其TFP受气候变化的影响越小,而经济发展水平越低,这种影响就越显著;城市产业结构越趋合理,天气与气候的影响越低,反之则影响越大。其中降水量的变化对三大产业都有影响,对第一产业影响最显著。     

基于自然的气候变化解决方案

基于自然的解决方案(NbS)是近10年提出的人类社会应对一系列环境和社会挑战的成本有效的方式,但直到近期才在国际社会引起重视。针对气候变化,NbS指通过对生态系统的保护、恢复和可持续管理减缓气候变化,同时利用生态系统及其服务功能帮助人类和野生生物适应气候变化带来的影响和挑战。这些生态系统包括森林、农田、草地、湿地（海岸带）生态系统,人工的或天然的。NbS能够为实现《巴黎协定》目标贡献30%左右的减排潜力,同时带来巨大的环境和社会经济的协同效益。但是,在过去的气候变化政策和行动中,包括国家自主贡献（INDC）,NbS尚未得到充分的重视,流入NbS相关的气候资金明显不足。为充分发挥NbS的潜力,建议开展中国NbS减排潜力及其协同效应研究,识别成本有效的中国NbS优先领域,梳理国际国内NbS成功案例,制定推动NbS主流化相关激励政策,推动多领域NbS协同治理。     

Contesting climate justice in the city: Examining politics and practice in urban climate change experiments

Debates about climate justice have mainly occurred at the international scale, and have focussed on the rights and responsibilities of nation-states to either be protected from the effects of climate change, or to take action to reduce emissions or support adaptation. In this paper, we argue that it is both productive and necessary to examine how climate justice is being pursued at the urban scale, which brings into focus the need for attention to issues of recognition as well as rights and responsibilities. Building on work from environmental justice, which has conceptualized justice as trivalent, we propose that climate justice can be understood as a pyramid, the faces of which are distributions, procedures, rights, responsibilities and recognition. We then apply this conceptual framework to examine climate change interventions in five cities; Bangalore, Monterrey, Hong Kong, Philadelphia and Berlin. Arguing that the politics and practices of urban climate change interventions are constantly engaging with and refracting the idea of justice, we examine how justice was articulated, practiced and contested across our cases. The perspective of recognition emerges as a particularly useful entry point through which to explore the types of rights, responsibilities, distributions and procedures required to respond justly to climate change. We conclude by reflecting on our framework, arguing that it is useful both as an analytical device to interrogate climate justice and to shape the design of climate change interventions which seek to ensure climate justice.     

“一带一路”沿线国家适应气候变化的技术需求评估

“一带一路”沿线国家受气候变化影响严重,亟需从其他国家转移适当的适应气候变化技术。技术需求评估是有效开展技术转移的必要前提。本研究利用“一带一路”沿线国家完成提交给《联合国气候变化框架公约》的技术需求评估（TNA）报告,在合作专利分类（CPC）框架下建立适应优先技术需求数据库,并根据技术需求的提及次数、技术需求的国家数目、技术需求的GDP覆盖范围以及技术惠及人口4个指标,分别从技术和地区两个角度对“一带一路”沿线国家的适应技术需求开展评估。结果发现：一方面,农林牧副渔生产中的适应技术（Y02A-40),集水、节水与高效利用水的技术（Y02A-20),沿海地区与江河流域的适应技术（Y02A-10）与对适应气候变化有间接贡献的技术（Y02A-90）这4方面的适应技术是“一带一路”沿线国家普遍关切的技术需求。另一方面,不同地区的“一带一路”沿线国家因其特有的地理区位和社会经济情况不同而产生特殊的适应技术需求。大洋洲、拉丁美洲与加勒比地区以及亚洲地区部分国家由于国内基础设施受气候变化影响十分严重,提出了保护和改造基础设施建设的技术（Y02A-30）需求;受气候变化影响,高温和降水加剧了疾病在空气和水体的传播,因此亚洲地区,大洋洲、拉丁美洲与加勒比地区特别提出了应对极端天气、保护人类健康的技术（Y02A-50）需求。为促进“一带一路”沿线国家开展有效技术转移,提高应对气候变化能力,应加大对气候适应技术研发投入,以技术接受国的技术需求为基础,并高效利用现有的“一带一路”技术转移中心网络,开展技术转移活动。     

气候变化背景下北极利益博弈与风险评估——建模与仿真

鉴于北极风险评估中定量数据匮乏、定性知识难以定量化和权重要素确定中主观性强等困难,传统的风险评估方法无法有效解决。通过引入"云模型"实现了定性知识的量化表达;运用模糊层次分析法提高了权重的客观性;针对气候变化背景下北极区域响应及其地缘格局变化和利益博弈问题,运用上述改进方法和技术途径对北极地区利益博弈和安全风险进行了评估建模和实验仿真,提出了一些研究见解和决策咨询信息。     

基于AHP的天津泥石流灾害评估

利用天津市蓟州区降水、地形地貌、人口、地质灾害、DEM数字高程数据等资料,以天津北部蓟州区为研究对象,采用无结构不规则网格设计方法对研究区域进行网格划分,应用层次分析法（AHP）确定直接雨量和间接雨量、水流流速、地形地貌、人口密度、发生频率等泥石流危险因子权重,建立天津泥石流危险度评估模型。利用模型对蓟州区2011-2018年11次强降雨过程进行泥石流危险度评估。结果表明：过程降雨量最大、降雨最为集中的2016年7月20日泥石流危险度最高,雨势平稳的2018年8月12-14日危险度最低;蓟州区2012年7月22日出现的双安泥石流以及2018年7月24日出现的小型山体崩塌,在模型对应的区域内均显示有泥石流风险存在,表明模型对泥石流具有较好的评估能力,可应用于业务和服务中。采用广义极值分布函数计算了蓟州区不同重现期1 h和12 h雨量,利用泥石流危险度评估模型模拟不同重现期雨量的泥石流风险,研究结果可为相关部门和行业提供决策参考。     

Projected climate change impacts on skiing and snowmobiling: A case study of the United States

We use a physically-based water and energy balance model to simulate natural snow accumulation at 247 winter recreation locations across the continental United States. We combine this model with projections of snowmaking conditions to determine downhill skiing, cross-country skiing, and snowmobiling season lengths under baseline and future climates, using data from five climate models and two emissions scenarios. Projected season lengths are combined with baseline estimates of winter recreation activity, entrance fee information, and potential changes in population to monetize impacts to the selected winter recreation activity categories for the years 2050 and 2090. Our results identify changes in winter recreation season lengths across the United States that vary by location, recreational activity type, and climate scenario. However, virtually all locations are projected to see reductions in winter recreation season lengths, exceeding 50% by 2050 and 80% in 2090 for some downhill skiing locations. We estimate these season length changes could result in millions to tens of millions of foregone recreational visits annually by 2050, with an annual monetized impact of hundreds of millions of dollars. Comparing results from the alternative emissions scenarios shows that limiting global greenhouse gas emissions could both delay and substantially reduce adverse impacts to the winter recreation industry.     

The discourses of climate change science: Scientific reporting,climate negotiations and the case of Papua New Guinea

This paper analyses climate science as a discourse to reveal how it enables and constrains climate change negotiations and action. Focusing on long-term outcomes projected in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report and the World Bank’s “Turn Down the Heat” reports, this paper examines processes of discourse structuration and institutionalization to identify the dominant discourses which frame climate action. We trace the dominant discourses identified in the scientific reports – Survivalism, Ecological Modernisation and Economic Rationalism – through the Paris Agreement and selected Leader Statements and Intended Nationally Determined Contributions from COP21. From the 24 states included in this analysis, Papua New Guinea (PNG) is developed as a case study to investigate the hybridity and institutionalization of discourses. Even though PNG’s rhetoric and commitments at COP21 express Survivalism, the state’s policy frameworks rarely move beyond solutions found in Economic Rationalism and Ecological Modernisation. This suggests that states strategically adopt hybrid discourses drawn from climate science in line with their positionality, political economy and interests. Understanding how discourses drawn from climate science manifest in national policies has significant implications not only for how science is communicated at the international level but also for understanding different state positions in the global climate governance regime.     

How inequitable is the global distribution of responsibility, capability, and vulnerability to climate change: A comprehensive indicator-based assessment

While it is generally asserted that those countries who have contributed least to anthropogenic climate change are most vulnerable to its adverse impacts some recently developed indices of vulnerability to climate change come to a different conclusion. Confirmation or rejection of this assertion is complicated by the lack of an agreed metric for measuring countries’ vulnerability to climate change and by conflicting interpretations of vulnerability. This paper presents a comprehensive semi-quantitative analysis of the disparity between countries’ responsibility for climate change, their capability to act and assist, and their vulnerability to climate change for four climate-sensitive sectors based on a broad range of disaggregated vulnerability indicators. This analysis finds a double inequity between responsibility and capability on the one hand and the vulnerability of food security, human health, and coastal populations on the other. This double inequity is robust across alternative indicator choices and interpretations of vulnerability. The main cause for the higher vulnerability of poor nations who have generally contributed little to climate change is their lower adaptive capacity. In addition, the biophysical sensitivity and socio-economic exposure of poor nations to climate impacts on food security and human health generally exceeds that of wealthier nations. No definite statement can be made on the inequity associated with climate impacts on water supply due to large uncertainties about future changes in regional water availability and to conflicting indicators of current water scarcity. The robust double inequity between responsibility and vulnerability for most climate-sensitive sectors strengthens the moral case for financial and technical assistance from those countries most responsible for climate change to those countries most vulnerable to its adverse impacts. However, the complex and geographically heterogeneous patterns of vulnerability factors for different climate-sensitive sectors suggest that the allocation of international adaptation funds to developing countries should be guided by sector-specific or hazard-specific criteria despite repeated requests from participants in international climate negotiations to develop a generic index of countries’ vulnerability to climate change.     

Social risk perceptions of climate change: A case study of farmers and agricultural advisors in northern California

Crop and livestock farmers must respond to climate change, including a range of physical and cultural impacts and risks. In rural northern California, farmers face extreme drought and catastrophic wildfires with increasing frequency. I draw on an extended case study of farmers and agricultural advisors in Siskiyou County to understand how rural agriculturalists perceive risks when navigating climate change discourses. While farmers are changing their management practices in response to the physical effects of climate change, many perceive substantial social risks within their communities if they align themselves publicly with climate change beliefs or actions. Perceived social consequences included loss of access to the benefits of membership in formal and informal farming groups. Efforts focused on educating or convincing farmers of climate science may, in some contexts, increase rather than decrease the perceived social risks of climate action. The framing of climate policies, programs, and practices – especially by public agricultural advisors like Cooperative Extension Advisors and local USDA staff (e.g., Farm Service Agency) – is important not only for increasing farmer participation, but also for reducing perceived social risks associated with climate change. Interventions that focus on livelihood impacts and validate existing land stewardship-oriented values have more potential to increase the pace and scale of climate change mitigation and adaptation in agriculture.