区域土地利用变化及其对粮食生产影响分析——以山东省为例

土地利用变化及其效应是目前全球变化研究的热点之一。本文以山东省为例,在分析土地利用结构特点和粮食总产量的时间变化趋势的基础上,进一步探讨了土地利用变化对粮食生产的影响。其影响主要表现在:土地利用类型变化与粮食播种面积、土地利用程度变化与粮食总产、土地利用集约度与粮食单产等三个方面。针对上述影响进一步探讨了保障粮食生产可持续发展的措施及土地利用分区,可为区域土地利用取向和制定粮食发展政策提供科学依据。     

Farmers' decision making on land use—the importance of soil conditions in the case of Río Cabuyal watershed,Colombia

Biophysical conditions and in particular soil conditions are generally seen as important determinants of land use and receive much emphasis both in land use planning and in attempts to understand actual land use patterns. This paper explores the justification for this emphasis. Based on a study of farmers' decisions regarding land use type (forest, pasture, fallow or crop) and crop choice in the Colombian Andes, the paper shows that despite farmers' detailed knowledge of the diverse soil conditions in the area, other factors, such as total farm size and market and input-related concerns, are more important for farmers' actual choice of land use type and crop.     

Land use changes and trends in Human Appropriation of Above Ground Net Primary Production (HANPP) in India (1961–98)

Land use change has the potential to influence energy flows, standing crop and biomass turnover at a variety of scales. To understand and quantify the impact of land use change on natural systems, interdisciplinary approaches and concepts linking biophysical and socioeconomic factors are needed. One such approach for analysing the socioeconomic energy flows from land use changes is Human Appropriated Net Primary Production (HANPP). HANPP is defined as the difference between the net primary production of potential vegetation and the actual net primary production remaining in vegetation after harvest. In this study, we used HANPP to quantify the energy flows consequent upon land use/land cover change from 1961 to 1998 in India. Data from the Food and Agricultural Organization Statistics (FAOSTAT) covering land use/land cover estimates, crop production, harvest and fertilizer use data have been used to analyse the trends in HANPP. Land use changes between 1961 and 1998 indicate a small increase in agricultural areas from 58.2% to 60.8% and in forest and woodland areas from 19.0% to 23.2%. Actual above ground net primary production of vegetation increased from 1280.58 to 1818.23 Tg, an increase of approximately 1.4 times over 37 years. Although population increased exponentially, human appropriation of photosynthetic products did not rise as much due to increases in forest cover and agricultural production. Although the HANPP concept is a useful approach to analyse the trends in photosynthetic products brought about by land use changes and harvesting, more robust indicators are needed to understand the impacts associated with these changes. We discuss the relevance of the HANPP analysis results by focusing on land use/land cover change and exploring the inter-linkages between energy flows and environment.     

作物生产潜力变化的区域差异——以陕西省为例

作物生产潜力变化具有明显的区域差异性,亟需针对不同地理单元实施有效应对措施和调控策略。选择陕西省三大地理单元（陕北高原、关中盆地和秦巴山区）为研究对象,运用全球生态区模型（GAEZ）分析了陕西省不同地理单元作物生产潜力变化趋势,探讨了不同作物生产潜力变化的区域差异,辨识出影响不同作物生产潜力变化的主要因素,结果显示：（1） 1980—2015年间,陕西省玉米生产潜力总量增加了150.55×10⁴ t,小麦生产潜力总量则下降了402.69×10⁴ t。（2） 关中盆地的玉米和小麦生产潜力皆最大,陕北高原次之,秦巴山区的玉米和小麦生产潜力皆最小;陕北高原和秦巴山区的玉米生产潜力皆表现出先增加后减小再增加的变化趋势,关中盆地的玉米生产潜力则先减小后增加再减小;关中盆地和秦巴山区的小麦生产潜力都呈下降趋势,陕北高原的小麦生产潜力则有所提高。（3） 土地利用变化呈现减产效应,这一效应在关中盆地尤为显著,其次为陕北高原;气候变化导致玉米生产潜力增加,使小麦生产潜力下降;气候变化对不同地理单元的影响也不相同,在陕北高原表现为增产效应,在关中盆地和秦巴山区则为减产效应。（4） 在陕北高原,气候变化的增产效应是玉米和小麦生产潜力提高的主要原因,气候变化对玉米生产潜力的影响大于对小麦的影响,耕地向草地、林地和建设用地的转化是降低作物生产潜力最主要的土地利用变化因素;在关中盆地,作物生产潜力的变化主要是受气候变化的影响,小麦受气候变化的影响较玉米为大,以建设用地占用耕地为特征的土地利用变化对玉米生产潜力的影响大于对小麦的影响;在秦巴山区,土地利用变化是玉米生产潜力变化的主要原因,而小麦生产潜力的变化主要受气候变化影响。     

Soil properties related to land-use systems in oases of Sangong river watershed, Xinjiang

Understanding the effect of human activities on the soil environment is fundamental to understanding global change and sustainable development. In the process of transformation of tropical rain forests and semiarid grasslands to farmlands, land degradation usually occurs. But the transformation of arid desert landscape to oasis is found to have quite different consequences. Taking an alluvial plain oasis in the north piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains as a case study, we investigate oasis soil properties related to different land-use systems during the transformation of arid desert to oases. Selected land-use systems consisted of an annual crop field less than 3 years old, annual crop field 3?6 years old, annual crop field more than 6 years old, perennial crop field less than 4 years old, perennial crop field of 4-6 years old, perennial crop field more than 6 years old, abandoned farmland more than 3 years old, woodland field more than 6 years old, ecological forestation field, natural shrubbery field, desert grass land, and saline or alkaline field. Different land-use systems affect significantly the distribution of sand, silt and clay. Sand content in oasis soil tends to decrease with cultivation years but silt and clay contents tend to be increased in the oasis soils. Soil fertility is higher in the land-use systems under strong human disturbance than under weak human disturbance. Oasis soil nutrients also tend to increase with cultivation years. Soils have a significantly lower salinity in the land-use systems under strong human disturbance than under weak human disturbance. Soil organic matter and nutrients of the annual and perennial crop systems in the oasis tend to increase with cultivation time with the oasis soil acting as a carbon sink. These results show that soils are not degraded and the soil quality is gradually improved under rational land use and scientific management patterns, including uniform exploitation of land resources, effective irrigation systems, sound drainage systems, balanced fertilizer application, crushed straw return to soil and transformation of annual crop fields to perennial ones.     

Manage or convert Boswellia woodlands? Can frankincense production payoff?

African dry forests provide non-timber forest products (NTFPs) of high commercial value, such as frankincense and gum arabic. Nonetheless, their deforestation and conversion to croplands is intensifying. Expected higher financial return from crop production is a main driver of conversion, but research supporting this underlying claim is scarce. We compared the financial returns for two crop production options (sesame and cotton) and forest use, in a dry forest area known for its frankincense production in northern Ethiopia. Net revenue was highest for sesame and lowest for cotton agricultural use. The forest based revenue was intermediate. The revenues from the crop production options were more sensitive to a range of uncertainties than the forest land use. Our results show that forest land use that includes commercial NTFPs is financially competitive to some commercial crop options and offers returns of better reliability. The hypothesis that forest based revenues are lower than crop based ones is not supported by our results. Therefore, the continued deforestation of dry forests cannot be explained by lower returns alone, but other factors such as awareness, market access, property right and institutional issues may also play a role to drive deforestation and conversion of dry forests to croplands.     

基于土地利用的河北省生态系统服务权衡/协同关系研究

在分析土地利用变化的基础上,基于InVEST模型计算1985-2015年河北省农作物生产、碳储量、生境质量和土壤保持4种生态系统服务,利用ESCI指数、相关分析法、ESTD模型及双变量局部空间自相关方法识别不同尺度生态系统服务空间格局变化及权衡/协同关系。结果表明:1)1985-2015年河北省土地利用变化剧烈,建设用地、林地面积不断增加,耕地、草地、未利用地逐渐减少,但不同时段变化趋势不同。受土地利用变化影响,河北省4种生态系统服务变化趋势迥异:农作物生产水平不断提升,碳储量呈先增后减趋势,生境质量变化平稳,土壤保持呈波动减少态势。2)从省域尺度看,河北省各类生态系统服务之间相互影响,碳储量与农作物生产以及土壤保持与生境质量均呈现协同关系,农作物生产与生境质量、土壤保持以及碳储量与生境质量、土壤保持均呈现权衡关系;从区域空间分异看,供给服务与支持服务间权衡/协同关系空间变化明显,支持服务中碳储量与生境质量总体上呈现西北协同—东南权衡关系,生境质量与土壤保持以协同关系为主,碳储量与土壤保持以权衡关系为主;从县域尺度看,土壤保持与碳储量、生境质量以及农作物生产与碳储量、土壤保持的权衡/协同关系集聚特征明显,而生境质量与农作物生产、碳储量的权衡/协同关系集聚特征较为分散。理清不同区域生态系统服务间的关系,可避免不必要的权衡风险,为优化河北省土地利用空间布局、实现社会经济发展与生态系统服务双赢奠定研究基础。     

Evaluating the impact of an agricultural land‐use change adaptation strategy on household crop production in semi‐arid Ghana

In this study, the Land Use Dynamic Simulator model was applied to investigate the impact of farm credit as an adaptation strategy to cope with effects of climate variability on agricultural land‐use change and crop production in the Vea watershed in Ghana. The authors identified the determinants of crop choices within the landscape (e.g., farm household and biophysical characteristics of farm plot). The crop choice sub‐model was then linked to the crop yield sub‐model to determine the yields of selected crops. In adapting to the impacts of climate variability, the maize credit adoption sub‐model under the maize cultivation credit scenario was integrated into decision‐making. This was simulated for a 20‐year period, and compared with the business‐as‐usual scenario. Under the simulated maize credit scenario, maize adopters increased from about 20 per cent to about 50 per cent and the area allocated for maize cultivation significantly increased by about 266 per cent. Consequently, the average annual aggregated household crop yield increased by 6.3 per cent higher than in the business‐as‐usual scenario. This simulation study shows that access to maize credit can significantly influence agricultural land‐use change and food availability in the study area. However, although access to farm credit may translate into food availability, the sustainability of this strategy is questionable.     

三工河流域绿洲土地利用对土壤特性的影响

Understanding the effect of human activities on the soil environment is fundamental to understanding global change and sustainable development. In the process of transformation of tropical rain forests and semiarid grasslands to farmlands, land degradation usually occurs. But the transformation of arid desert landscape to oasis is found to have quite different consequences. Taking an alluvial plain oasis in the north piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains as a case study, we investigate oasis soil properties related to different land-use systems during the transformation of arid desert to oases. Selected land-use systems con- sisted of an annual crop field less than 3 years old, annual crop field 3-6 years old, annual crop field more than 6 years old, perennial crop field less than 4 years old, perennial crop field of 4-6 years old, perennial crop field more than 6 years old, abandoned farmland more than 3 years old, woodland field more than 6 years old, ecological forestation field, natural shrubbery field, desert grass land, and saline or alkaline field. Different land-use systems affect significantly the distribution of sand, silt and clay. Sand content in oasis soil tends to decrease with cultivation years but silt and clay contents tend to be increased in the oasis soils. Soil fertility is higher in the land-use systems under strong human disturbance than under weak human disturbance. Oasis soil nutrients also tend to increase with cultivation years. Soils have a significantly lower salinity in the land-use systems under strong human disturbance than under weak human disturbance. Soil organic matter and nutrients of the annual and perennial crop systems in the oasis tend to increase with cultivation time with the oasis soil acting as a carbon sink. These results show that soils are not degraded and the soil quality is gradually improved under rational land use and scientific management patterns, including uniform exploitation of land resources, effective irrigation systems, sound drainage systems, balanced ferti     

Optimal land use allocation of urban fringe in Guangzhou

In response to the strong drive for social and economic development, local governments have implemented urban master plans, providing measures and timeframes to address the continuous demand for land and to alleviate urban problems. In this paper, a multi-objective model was constructed to discuss the problem, including economic benefits and ecological effectiveness, in terms of land use optimization. A genetic algorithm was then adopted to solve the model, and a performance evaluation and sensitivity analysis were conducted using Pareto optimality. Results showed that a set of tradeoffs could be acquired by the allocation of land use. In addition, the Pareto solutions proved the model to be efficient; for example, a limit of 13,500 ha of urban area conformed to plan recommendations. The reduction in crop land, orchard land, grassland, and unused land provided further efficiencies. These results implied that further potential regional land resources remain and that the urban master plan is able to support sustainable local development in the years to come, as well as verified that it is feasible to use land use allocation multi-objective modeling and genetic algorithms.     

广州市城市边缘区土地利用优化配置(英文)

In response to the strong drive for social and economic development, local governments have implemented urban master plans, providing measures and timeframes to address the continuous demand for land and to alleviate urban problems. In this paper, a multi-objective model was constructed to discuss the problem, including economic benefits and ecological effectiveness, in terms of land use optimization. A genetic algorithm was then adopted to solve the model, and a performance evaluation and sensitivity analysis were conducted using Pareto optimality. Results showed that a set of tradeoffs could be acquired by the allocation of land use. In addition, the Pareto solutions proved the model to be efficient; for example, a limit of 13,500 ha of urban area conformed to plan recommendations. The reduction in crop land, orchard land, grassland, and unused land provided further efficiencies. These results implied that further potential regional land resources remain and that the urban master plan is able to support sustainable local development in the years to come, as well as verified that it is feasible to use land use allocation multi-objective modeling and genetic algorithms.     

基于Landsat8影像时间序列NDVI的作物种植结构提取

为提高内蒙古平原灌区作物种植结构遥感监测精度和效率,提出一种基于时序NDVI曲线的作物种植结构提取方法。以内蒙古土默特右旗平原区为研究区域,以2015年覆盖作物生育期的多时相Landsat影像为数据源,根据不同地物其NDVI值范围不同,将研究区地表分为植被覆盖地表,无植被覆盖地表和水体3类。在植被覆盖区域内,根据林地和荒草地时序NDVI曲线特征,提取林地和荒草地,其余区域即为农田。根据小麦、玉米、葵花和西葫芦的时间序列NDVI曲线特征差异构建分类决策树模型,在农田区域内提取上述作物的空间种植分布信息。研究区各类地物及作物遥感提取面积与实际统计面积接近,土地利用分类总体精度达到85.71%,作物分类总体精度达到82.69%。研究结果表明该方法提取作物种植信息的精度较高,能够实现区域作物种植信息的高效准确监测。     

1990-2015年中国工矿用地扩张及其对粮食安全的潜在影响

中国城市化和工业化进程所带来的粮食安全问题一直是政府和学术界关注的焦点。中国近25年来快速的城市化与工业化导致耕地资源减少和环境污染加剧,对国家粮食安全和农业可持续发展产生一定影响。本文基于中国土地利用/覆盖变化最新解译结果和中国分县粮食产量数据,重建了中国1 km分辨率的粮食产量空间数据,分析了中国1990-2015年工矿用地扩张及其对粮食产能的影响。结果表明：中国工矿用地面积在1990-2015年间增长了326%,扩张速率从1990-2000年的288 km²/a增加到2000-2010年的1482 km²/a,近5年(2010-2015年)扩张速率最快,达2600 km²/a。过去25年间工矿用地扩张导致耕地面积减少1.7×10⁴ km²,直接导致粮食产能损失约6.49 Mt(10⁶ t),因工矿用地扩张可能会对周边耕地污染等间接影响的粮食产量达83.20 Mt。经评估,国家工矿用地扩张对粮食产能潜在影响总体上是当前粮食总产能的17%。在空间分布特征方面,工矿用地扩张对粮食产能的直接影响呈现由东部沿海地区向西北地区逐渐减小趋势;间接影响在中部和西部地区相对较大。     

黄土丘陵沟壑区土地利用类型与土地生产力关系模拟研究——以王家沟小流域为例

土地利用是人类对自然界影响的最主要方式,而土地利用类型则是影响土地生产力状况的关键因素。利用基于侵蚀条件下的土地生产力模型,研究黄土高原丘陵沟壑区不同土地利用类型与土地生产力之间的关系。结果表明,对于大多数的作物类型而言,土地生产力状况均表现为坝地>梯田>坡耕地>沟坡地。进一步研究了不同作物类型对土地利用的适宜性指数和生产力指数,均表现出相同的趋势。     

Qualitative satellite image analysis: Mapping spatial distribution of farming types in Ethiopia

Satellite images have enormous potential for qualitative land use analysis. This paper presents empirical results that demonstrate how normally invisible dimensions produced by land use can be identified by enriching satellite data with qualitative information from field studies.Land use can be defined as the intentional use of a specific piece of land resulting in patterns of ecological responses that are visible in the land cover and landscape. Responses to land use often result in a heterogeneous combination of reflectance in satellite images. Statistical methods used in the classification of satellite imagery are limited in their capacity to handle categories consisting of heterogeneous combinations of spectral values. To overcome this limitation, a contextual post-classification method has been used to map land cover configurations as related to different agricultural practices in the district of Sodo, Ethiopia.The results show that it is possible to map socio-spatial distribution of different agricultural and socioeconomic practices on a regional level by combining field observations and spatial contextual information. The empirical findings show local agricultural activity variations in cash crop production and subsistence agriculture in the Sodo district of Ethiopia.     

Six decades of agricultural land use change in Bangladesh: Effects on crop diversity,productivity, food availability and the environment, 1948–2006

This paper provides a detailed analysis of agricultural land use change in Bangladesh over a 59‐year period (1948–2006) and examines how these have impacted crop diversity, productivity, food availability and the environment. The key findings of the analysis are: first, land use intensity has increased significantly over this period, mainly from the widespread adoption of a rice‐based Green Revolution technology package beginning in the early 1960s; second, contrary to expectation, crop diversity too has increased; third, although land productivity has increased significantly, declines in the productivity of fertilizers and pesticides raise doubts over sustaining agricultural growth; fourth, food availability has improved, with a reversal in the dietary energy imbalance in recent years despite a high population growth rate; and finally, the production environment has suffered with widespread soil nutrient depletion experienced in many agroecological regions. The policy implication points towards crop diversification as a desired strategy for agricultural growth to improve resource economy, productivity and efficiency in farming in Bangladesh.     

石羊河下游农户的土地利用行为及效率

农户的土地利用行为不仅决定着土地资源能否可持续利用,更影响着农村生态环境质量。本文以石羊河下游484户农户的问卷调查为基础,采用多独立样本和数据包络分析(DEA)法分析不同区域和不同类型农户土地利用行为的差异性和土地利用效率及影响因素。结果表明:(1)越向石羊河尾闾,粮食作物的种植比例越小,而经济作物种植比例越大;(2)坝区种植多样化指数最高,湖区农户土地的投入和产出最高,坝区与湖区土地利用的综合技术效率和规模效率均高于泉山区;(3)随着非农化水平的提高,农兼户的种植多样化指数最高,纯农户、农兼户和兼农户的土地投入与产出、综合技术效率、规模效率依次降低;(4)家庭规模、户主年龄、非农业收入与土地利用效率呈显著负相关性,劳动力受教育水平、农业总投入、农业收入与土地利用效率呈显著正相关性。最后,提出改善石羊河下游农户的土地利用行为、提高土地利用效率的对策建议。     

Scientific documentation of crop land changes in the Sahel: A half empty box of knowledge to support policy?

The Sahel has been subject of considerable environmental research and development efforts, specifically since the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s. This article uses a meta-study approach to summarize knowledge of crop land change, the documented driving forces, and the perceived impacts. The analysis of case studies shows that crop land has increased in the majority of cases mainly due to population increase. However, despite population increase, crop land has been stable in some areas, particularly where land availability is a limiting factor or where farmers are able to intensify their farmers from expanding their plots or because households have diversified their activities. The study shows the huge gap in the scientific literature concerning actual measurements of crop land change in the Sahel, which is in contrast to the attention given to crop land changes in theoretical and policy discourses. On the basis of the poor documentation available on crop land change and the contrasting results observed, we point out the need to exercise caution with regard to simple narratives about crop land change.     

Multi-criteria, multi-objective and uncertainty analysis for agro-energy spatial modelling

The worldwide increase in the use of biomass as a Renewable Energy Source raises the issue of introducing crops dedicated to energy production into rural landscapes. The purpose of this paper is to set-up a GIS based multi-criteria approach to assess a range of possibilities for perennial energy crops conversion. The presented method was implemented at the regional level in the Yorkshire and the Humber Region in Northern UK. The first phase of the study aims to set-up a land capability model for the specific purpose of assessing the potential of different typologies of perennial energy crops, on the basis of specific pedo-climatic and topographic factors. The model output illustrates a range of potentials for energy crop conversion that can be explored in the given landscape. In the second phase a uncertainty analysis of the land capability model was performed through a simulation approach in order to interpret the influence of assumptions and uncertainty on input data and model parameters. The last phase of the study allows allocating the energy crop conversion area according to specific environmental constraints, nature protection targets, food production priorities and land capability values. The land allocation output gives a rather restrictive energy crop penetration scenario, where more than half of the conversion area is allocated to cropping systems with low land degradation potential. This scenario represents a preliminary regional analysis of the energy crop potential in terms of theoretically available conversion areas. The final results also show that the areas with highest environmental risks correspond to the areas with both the lowest suitability for energy crop cultivation and the highest model uncertainty.     

冀北地区植被指数变化特征及影响因素分析

利用8km分辨率的NOVV/AVHRR NDV I数据、土地利用/覆被变化TM影像解译数据、气候数据、DEM数据和经济统计数据,对冀北地区1987~2000年植被覆被变化特征及影响因素进行了分析,得出主要结论如下:冀北地区土地覆被变化下NDVI平均增加值为0.35,变化特征为集中连片。土地利用变化导致NDVI平均减小值为0.17,变化特征呈斑块状离散分布。土地利用类型变化、错季蔬菜生产等人为因素对土地覆被变化下NDVI变化贡献率较低,降水、特别是生长季降水分布特征是影响NDVI变化的重要因素。