Sewage impacts coral reefs at multiple levels of ecological organization

Against a backdrop of rising sea temperatures and ocean acidification which pose global threats to coral reefs, excess nutrients and turbidity continue to be significant stressors at regional and local scales. Because interventions usually require local data on pollution impacts, we measured ecological responses to sewage discharges in Surin Marine Park, Thailand. Wastewater disposal significantly increased inorganic nutrients and turbidity levels, and this degradation in water quality resulted in substantial ecological shifts in the form of (i) increased macroalgal density and species richness, (ii) lower cover of hard corals, and (iii) significant declines in fish abundance. Thus, the effects of nutrient pollution and turbidity can cascade across several levels of ecological organization to change key properties of the benthos and fish on coral reefs. Maintenance or restoration of ecological reef health requires improved wastewater management and run-off control for reefs to deliver their valuable ecosystems services.     

Application of a watershed runoff model to North-east Pond River,Newfoundland: to study water balance and hydrological characteristics owing to atmospheric change

The hydrological sensitivities to long-term climate change of a watershed in Eastern Canada were analysed using a deterministic watershed runoff model developed to simulate watershed acidification. This model was modified to study atmospheric change effects in the watershed. Water balance modelling techniques, modified for assessing climate effects, were developed and tested for a watershed using atmospheric change scenarios from both state of the art general circulation models and a series of hypothetical scenarios. The model computed daily surface, inter- and groundwater flows from the watershed. The moisture, infiltration and recharge rate are also computed in the soil reservoirs. The thirty years of simulated data can be used to evaluate the effects of climatic change on soil moisture, recharge rate and surface and subsurface flow systems. The interaction between surface and subsurface water is discussed in relation to climate change. These hydrological results raise the possibility of major environmental and socioeconomic difficulties and have significant implications for future water resource planning and management. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Introductory perspective on the COREF Project

Abstract Coral reefs are tropic to subtropic, coastal ecosystems comprising very diverse organisms. Late Quaternary reef deposits are fossil archives of environmental, tectonic and eustatic variations that can be used to reconstruct the paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic history of the tropic surface oceans. Reefs located at the latitudinal limits of coral‐reef ecosystems (i.e. those at coral‐reef fronts) are particularly sensitive to environmental changes – especially those associated with glacial–interglacial changes in climate and sealevel. We propose a land and ocean scientific drilling campaign in the Ryukyu Islands (the Ryukyus) in the northwestern Pacific Ocean to investigate the dynamic response of the corals and coral‐reef ecosystems in this region to Late Quaternary climate and sealevel change. Such a drilling campaign, which we call the COREF (coral‐reef front) Project, will allow the following three major questions to be evaluated: (i) What are the nature, magnitude and driving mechanisms of coral‐reef front migration in the Ryukyus? (ii) What is the ecosystem response of coral reefs in the Ryukyus to Quaternary climate changes? (iii) What is the role of coral reefs in the global carbon cycle? Subsidiary objectives include (i) the timing of coral‐reef initiation in the Ryukyus and its causes; (ii) the position of the Kuroshio current during glacial periods and its effects on coral‐reef formation; and (iii) early carbonate diagenetic responses as a function of compounded variations in climate, eustacy and depositional mineralogies (subtropic aragonitic to warm‐temperate calcitic). The geographic, climatic and oceanographic settings of the Ryukyu Islands provide an ideal natural laboratory to address each of these research questions.     

Recent progress on signalling molecules of coral-associated microorganisms

Coral reefs have high primary productivity and are one of the most important ecosystems in the ocean. However, the health and stability of coral reefs are constantly threatened by climate change and human activities. The coral holobiont is a complex symbiosis between the coral animal, zooxanthellae, and the associated community of microorganisms including bacteria, archaea, viruses, etc. Coral-associated microorganisms are found to be important for the maintenance of coral health,and they are proposed to contribute to the acclimatization and adaptation of reef-building corals under rapid climate change. The coral-microbe interaction mediated by chemical signalling molecules is an important driving force for shaping the microbial communities. Herein, we summarize our current knowledge of the chemical signalling molecules involved in the interaction of the coral holobiont. Specifically, the cooperation and competition among microbes mediated by N-acyl homoserine lactones(AHLs), the interrelationship between microbes and hosts mediated by dimethylsulfoniopropionate(DMSP) and nitric oxide(NO), and the response of corals and microorganisms to reactive oxygen species(ROS) under environmental stresses are highlighted in this review. We further discuss the potential of manipulating the coral microbiome using signalling molecules to restore and protect coral reefs.     

Global hydrological changes associated with a perturbation of the climate system: the role of atmospheric feedbacks,their uncertainty and their validation

The anthropogenic increase of the atmospheric greenhouse effect is expected to bring important perturbations of the climate system during the next century. The models which are used to compute scenarios of this future climate change nevertheless suffer from important uncertainties which make impossible the detailed prediction of regional impacts. Characterizing these uncertainties as precisely as possible constitutes a necessary step to assess a climate risk and realize local impact studies. We describe the manifestation of water vapour and cloud feedbacks in the present models, and show that satellite data, in particular, may constitute an important source of information to constrain more efficiently the models.     

Assessing indigenous knowledge systems and climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture: A case study of Chagaka Village,Chikhwawa, Southern Malawi

In Malawi, production from subsistence rain fed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. In response to the adverse effects of climate change and variability, a National Adaptation Programme of Action is used as framework for implementing adaptation programmes. However, this framework puts limited significance on indigenous knowledge systems (IKS). In many parts of the world, IKS have shown potential in the development of locally relevant and therefore sustainable adaptation strategies. This study was aimed at assessing the role of IKS in adaptation to climate change and variability in the agricultural sector in a rural district of Chikhwawa, southern Malawi. The study used both qualitative data from focus group and key informant interviews and quantitative data from household interviews and secondary data to address the research objectives. The study established that the local communities are able to recognise the changes in their climate and local environment. Commonly mentioned indicators of changing climatic patterns included delayed and unpredictable onset of rainfall, declining rainfall trends, warming temperatures and increased frequency of prolonged dry spells. An analysis of empirical data corroborates the people’s perception. In addition, the community is able to use their IKS to adapt their agricultural systems to partially offset the effects of climate change. Like vulnerability to climate change, IKS varies over a short spatial scale, providing locally relevant adaptation to impacts of climate change. This paper therefore advocates for the integration of IKS in programmes addressing adaptation to climate change and vulnerability. This will serve to ensure sustainable and relevant adaptation strategies.     

The value of large-scale climate variables in climate change assessment: The case of Botswana’s rainfall

Climate change is expected to alter rainfall regimes across most parts of the world. The implications of this could be more severe in arid environments where rainfall is limited and highly variable in space and time. However, lack of good quality data, of sufficient record length and spatial coverage usually restricts model development and performance geared towards assessing the effects of climate change in these areas. This paper presents an analysis of rainfall and climate data in order to determine the time of change in rainfall series and identify possible correlations between rainfall and temperature. In addition, the paper aims to make predictions of future rainfall patterns in Botswana. This is achieved by using historical rainfall and climate data from rainfall stations spread across Botswana from 1965 to 2008. In addition, large scale reanalysis data from NCAR/NCEP and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) data were used to augment the limited observed spatial climate data series when developing a rainfall model. Temperature and ENSO indices have been used to predict rainfall regimes for the present climate. Based on these, the effects of climate change were quantified using a stochastic generalised linear rainfall model (GLM) driven by outputs of global climate models (GCMs). The results indicate that temperature is a significant rainfall predictor in Botswana compared to ENSO indices.     

WIDESPREAD EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC WARMING ON FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS IN NORTH AMERICA

Freshwaters in different regions show many similarities and differences in their responses to climatic warming. Bases for comparison include reports from regional committees, long-term records for several sites where climate has warmed in the past two decades and other human alterations to freshwaters that simulate some of the expected results of climatic warming, such as reservoir construction. Palaeoecological studies of freshwaters under climatic warming and differences in communities under different climatic regimes are also considered. Major changes in the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of lakes occur. Many of the changes to lakes and streams are the result of strong effects of climatic warming on terrestrial catchments. Inputs from catchments can be either dampened or amplified by in-lake processes, in some cases causing counter-intuitive responses, such as the acidification of streams but alkalinization of lakes in areas where supplies of base cations are limited. Consideration of land–water interactions and interactions between climatic warming and other human stresses are important for the accurate prediction of the effects of climatic change. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water quality and coral bleaching thresholds: Formalising the linkage for the inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

The threats of wide-scale coral bleaching and reef demise associated with anthropogenic climate change are widely known. Here, the additional role of poor water quality in lowering the thermal tolerance (i.e. bleaching ‘resistance’) of symbiotic reef corals is considered. In particular, a quantitative linkage is established between terrestrially-sourced dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) loading and the upper thermal bleaching thresholds of inshore reefs on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Significantly, this biophysical linkage provides concrete evidence for the oft-expressed belief that improved coral reef management will increase the regional-scale survival prospects of corals reefs to global climate change. Indeed, for inshore reef areas with a high runoff exposure risk, it is shown that the potential benefit of this ‘local’ management imperative is equivalent to ∼2.0-2.5 °C in relation to the upper thermal bleaching limit; though in this case, a potentially cost-prohibitive reduction in end-of-river DIN of >50-80% would be required. An integrated socio-economic modelling framework is outlined that will assist future efforts to understand (optimise) the alternate tradeoffs that the water quality/coral bleaching linkage presents.     

Informing policy to protect coastal coral reefs: Insight from a global review of reducing agricultural pollution to coastal ecosystems

The continuing degradation of coral reefs has serious consequences for the provision of ecosystem goods and services to local and regional communities. While climate change is considered the most serious risk to coral reefs, agricultural pollution threatens approximately 25% of the total global reef area with further increases in sediment and nutrient fluxes projected over the next 50 years. Here, we aim to inform coral reef management using insights learned from management examples that were successful in reducing agricultural pollution to coastal ecosystems. We identify multiple examples reporting reduced fluxes of sediment and nutrients at end-of-river, and associated declines in nutrient concentrations and algal biomass in receiving coastal waters. Based on the insights obtained, we recommend that future protection of coral reef ecosystems demands policy focused on desired ecosystem outcomes, targeted regulatory approaches, up-scaling of watershed management, and long-term maintenance of scientifically robust monitoring programs linked with adaptive management.     

Black band disease as a possible factor of the coral decline at the northern reef-flat of Yongxing Island,South China Sea

Black band disease(BBD),characterized by the Cyanobacterial dominated pathogenic consortium,is thought to play a key role in the global decline of the coral reef ecosystems.The present paper originally documents a case of BBD from Yongxing Island(Xisha Islands,South China Sea),and further probes the reasons of this abnormal phenomenon.Prior to 2007,corals at northern reef-flat of Yongxing Isand were in healthy growth.Catastrophic coral mortality occurred between 2007 and 2008.The 16S rRNA gene sequencing and PCR amplification,with universally conserved primers,were applied to detect the contagious bacterial community of the microbial mat.The results demonstrated that six bacterial divisions constituted the clone libraries derived from the BBD mat,and that Cyanobacteria are the most diversely represented group that inhabit BBD bacterial mats,despite the fact that species in five others divisions(α-Proteobacteria,γ-Proteobacteria,Bacteroidetes,Verrucomicrobia and Actinobacteria) are also consistently diverse within the BBD mats of diseased coral.Other factors such as coral bleaching,typhoons,ocean acidification and crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks,are not primarily responsible for the coral mortality within such a short time interval.The disaster expansion of BBD associated with Cyanobacterial blooms is a more likely mechanism impacting these coral reefs.Excessive human activity enhances the eutrophication of the marine water of the reefal region and may result in occurrence of the BBD.     

Climate change and fluvial flood risk in the UK: more of the same?

The potential impact of climate change on fluvial flooding is receiving considerable scientific and political interest thanks to evidence from climate model projections and a widely held belief that flood risk may be increasing at European levels. This review compares published work on historical trends in UK rainfall and river flow records with high‐resolution regional climate change projections, and attempts to reconcile apparent differences between the two. Attention is focused on the techniques used for climate change detection and attribution, as well as the potential confounding effects of land‐use change. International and domestic efforts to build adaptive capacity rest on improved quantification of uncertainty in flood risk at very local, catchment and regional scales. This will involve further research to better integrate climate and land‐management interactions, to understand changes in the dependence between different flood generating mechanisms, and to improve the characterization and communication of uncertainty at all stages of analysis. Resources are also needed to ensure that latest, but still uncertain, science is presented in an appropriate form to underpin policy development and is translated into sensible guidance for practitioners. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temperature and heat wave trends in northwest Mexico

Increase in temperature extremes is one of the main expected impacts of climate change, as well as one of the first signs of its occurrence. Nevertheless, results emerging from General Circulation Models, while sufficient for large scales, are not enough for forecasting local trends and, hence, the IPCC has called for local studies based on on-site data. Indeed, it is expected that climate extremes will be detected much earlier than changes in climate averages. Heat waves are among the most important and least studied climate extremes, however its occurrence has been only barely studied and even its very definition remains controversial. This paper discusses the observed changes in temperature trends and heat waves in Northwestern Mexico, one of the most vulnerable regions of the country. The climate records in two locations of the region are analyzed, including one of the cities with extreme climate in Mexico, Mexicali City in the state of Baja California and the Yaqui River basin at Sonora State using three different methodologies. Results showed clear trends on temperature increase and occurrence of heat waves in both of the study zones using the three methodologies proposed. As result, some policy making suggestion are included in order to increase the adaptability of the studied regions to climate change, particularly related with heat wave occurrence.     

Effects of terrestrial runoff on the ecology of corals and coral reefs: review and synthesis

This paper reviews and evaluates the current state of knowledge on the direct effects of terrestrial runoff on (1) the growth and survival of hard coral colonies, (2) coral reproduction and recruitment, and (3) organisms that interact with coral populations (coralline algae, bioeroders, macroalgae and heterotrophic filter feeders as space competitors, pathogens, and coral predators). The responses of each of these groups are evaluated separately against the four main water quality parameters: (1) increased dissolved inorganic nutrients, (2) enrichment with particulate organic matter, (3) light reduction from turbidity and (4) increased sedimentation. This separation facilitates disentangling and understanding the mechanisms leading to changes in the field, where many contaminants and many responses co-occur. The review also summarises geographic and biological factors that determine local and regional levels of resistance and resilience to degradation. It provides a conceptual aid to assess the kind of change(s) likely to occur in response to changing coastal water quality.     

Tropical harmful algal blooms: An emerging threat to coral reef communities?

Tropical harmful algal blooms (HABs) are increasing in frequency and intensity and are substantially affecting marine communities. In October/November 2008 a large-scale HAB event (> 500 km², dinoflagellate Cochlodinium polykrikoides) in the Gulf of Oman caused the complete loss of the branching corals, Pocillopora and Acropora spp., and substantial reductions in the abundance, richness and trophic diversity of the associated coral reef fish communities. Although the causative agents of this C. polykrikoides bloom are unknown, increased coastal enrichment, natural oceanographic mechanisms, and the recent expansion of this species within ballast water discharge are expected to be the main agents. With rapid changes in oceanic climate, enhanced coastal eutrophication and increased global distribution of HAB species within ballast water, large-scale HAB events are predicted to increase dramatically in both intensity and distribution and can be expected to have increasingly negative effects on coral reef communities globally.     

Modelling feedbacks between geomorphological and riparian vegetation responses under climate change in a Mediterranean context

Climate change is expected to alter temperatures and precipitation patterns, affecting river flows and hence riparian corridors. In this context we have explored the potential evolution of riparian corridors under a dryness gradient of flow regimes associated with climate change in a Mediterranean river. We have applied an advanced bio‐hydromorphodynamic model incorporating interactions between hydro‐morphodynamics and vegetation. Five scenarios, representing drier conditions and more extreme events, and an additional reference scenario without climate change, have been designed and extended until the year 2100. The vegetation model assesses colonization, growth and mortality of Salicaceae species. We analysed the lower course of the Curueño River, a free flowing gravel bed river (NW Spain), as a representative case study of the Mediterranean region. Modelling results reveal that climate change will affect both channel morphology and riparian vegetation in terms of cover, age distribution and mortality. Reciprocal interactions between flow conditions and riparian species as bio‐engineers are predicted to promote channel narrowing, which becomes more pronounced as dryness increases. Reductions in seedling cover and increases in sapling and mature forest cover are predicted for all climate change scenarios compared with the reference scenario, and the suitable area for vegetation development declines and shifts towards lower floodplain elevations. Climate change also leads to younger vegetation becoming more subject to uprooting and flooding. The predicted reduction in suitable establishment areas and the narrowing of vegetated belts threatens the persistence of the current riparian community. This study highlights the usefulness of advanced bio‐hydromorphodynamic modelling for assessing climate change effects on fluvial landscapes. It also illustrates the need to consider climate change in river management to identify appropriate adaptation measures for riparian ecosystems. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relationship between historical sea-surface temperature variability and climate change-induced coral mortality in the western Indian Ocean

Many of the world’s coral reefs suffered high coral mortality during the 1998 ENSO, with the highest mortality in the western Indian Ocean (WIO). A meta-analysis of field data on change in coral cover across the 1998 ENSO event was conducted for 36 major reef areas in the WIO, and relationship of the change with the historical sea-surface temperature (SST) variability investigated. WIO reefs were categorized into three major SST groups of differing coral cover change. Cover change was negatively associated with standard deviation (SD) SST until about SD 2.3, with increasing flatness of the SST frequency distributions. It increased with further increase in SD as the SST distributions became strongly bimodal in the Arabian/Persian Gulf area. The study indicates that environmental resistance/tolerance to extreme anomalous events could be predicted and management priorities directed accordingly for a warmer and more variable future climate.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS OF THE NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC REGION

Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and climatic change are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems within the region interactively. The general climate, at present, is humid continental, and the region receives abundant precipitation. Climatic projections for a 2 × CO₂ atmosphere, however, suggest warmer and drier conditions for much of this region. Annual temperature increases ranging from 3–5°C are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in autumn or winter. According to a water balance model, the projected increase in temperature will result in greater rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration. This could cause a 21 and 31% reduction in annual stream flow in the southern and northern sections of the region, respectively, with greatest reductions occurring in autumn and winter. The amount and duration of snow cover is also projected to decrease across the region, and summer convective thunderstorms are likely to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity. The dual effects of climate change and direct anthropogenic stress will most likely alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes, and, hence, the floral and faunal communities of the region's freshwater ecosystems. For example, the projected increase in evapotranspiration and evaporation could eliminate most bog ecosystems, and increases in water temperature may increase bioaccumulation, and possibly biomagnification, of organic and inorganic contaminants. Not all change may be adverse. For example, a decrease in runoff may reduce the intensity of ongoing estuarine eutrophication, and acidification of aquatic habitats during the spring snowmelt period may be ameliorated. Recommendations for future monitoring efforts include: (1) extending and improving data on the distribution, abundance and effect of anthropogenic stressors (non-point pollution) within the region; and (2) improving scientific knowledge regarding the contemporary distribution and abundance of aquatic species. Research recommendations include: (1) establishing a research centre(s) where field studies designed to understand interactions between freshwater ecosystems and climate change can be conducted; (2) projecting the future distribution, activities and direct effects of humans within the region; (3) developing mathematical analyses, experimental designs and aquatic indicators that distinguish between climatic and anthropogenic effects on aquatic systems; (4) developing and refining projections of climate variability such that the magnitude, frequency and seasonal timing of extreme events can be forecast; and (5) describing quantitatively the flux of materials (sediments, nutrients, metals) from watersheds characterized by a mosaic of land uses. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of climate change and urbanization on the runoff of the Rock Creek basin in the Portland metropolitan area,Oregon, USA

Climate changes brought on by increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to have a significant effect on the Pacific Northwest hydrology during the 21st century. Many climate model simulations project higher mean annual temperatures and temporal redistribution of precipitation. This is of particular concern for highly urbanized basins where runoff changes are more vulnerable to changes in climate. The Rock Creek basin, located in the Portland metropolitan area, has been experiencing rapid urban growth throughout the last 30 years, making it an ideal study area for assessing the effect of climate and land cover changes on runoff. A combination of climate change and land cover change scenarios for 2040 with the semi‐distributed AVSWAT (ArcView Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model was used to determine changes in mean runoff depths in the 2040s (2030–2059) from the baseline period (1973–2002) at the monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. Statistically downscaled climate change simulation results from the ECHAM5 general circulation model (GCM) found that the region would experience an increase of 1·2 °C in the average annual temperature and a 2% increase in average annual precipitation from the baseline period. AVSWAT simulation shows a 2·7% increase in mean annual runoff but a 1·6% decrease in summer runoff. Projected climate change plus low‐density, sprawled urban development for 2040 produced the greatest change to mean annual runoff depth (+5·5%), while climate change plus higher‐density urban development for 2040 resulted in the smallest change (+5·2%), when compared with the climate and land cover of the baseline period. This has significant implications for water resource managers attempting to implement adaptive water resource policies to future changes resulting from climate and urbanization. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate change impact on Caspian Sea wave conditions in the Noshahr Port

Excessive usage of fossil fuels and high emission of greenhouse gases have increased the earth’s temperature and consequently have led to changes in wind and wave regimes. The main effects of climate change on oceans are warming of the ocean water, melting of ice, acidification of ocean water, and change in the ocean currents. The main effects of climate change on coastal regions are change in the coast hydrodynamics, sea level rise, change in wave height, coastal erosion, coastal structure damage, food shortage, and storms. Due to the importance of waves in the coastal zone and its effect on erosion and sedimentation, it is necessary to study wave changes. In this study, the effect of climate change on wave specifications was evaluated in the southern coast of the Caspian Sea in Noshahr Port. To simulate wave parameters, the third generation spectral Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model was used. Wave modeling was carried out using the SWAN numerical model for two 30-yearly periods, including the control period (1984 to 2014) and the future period (2051 to 2080). For wave modeling in the control period, the European Center for Average Weather Forecast wind field was used, and for the future period, a downscaled wind field from Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment projection, which was sponsored by World Climate Research Programme, based on the most recent emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, was used. The model results were calibrated and verified with buoy-recorded data. The effect of the climate change on the wave parameters was evaluated by studying the differences between the patterns in three scenarios and the control period. Results showed that the 30-year maximum significant wave height will increase because of climate change, and the wave direction will not change. In addition, the intensity of storms will increase in the future.